Who Will Order The First 737 Max?

FlyASAGuy2005 · Fri Sep 02, 2011 5:20 am

Man I usually hate threads like these but I had to do it!

Now that it's official and Boeing will in fact be offering a re-engined 737-700, 737-800, and 737-900 thereafter the 737 Max 7, 737 Max 8, and 737 Max 9, who do you guys think will ink the first order.

It seems the obvious "official" first order will be AA as they had stated in their recent order for the NEO that they signed an LOI with Boeing for their 737RE (as everyone was calling it back then) pending the official launch of the program. As the program hasn't been fully defined yet such as all the planned upgrades, I don't even think a list price has been published. OR will be for quite some time now.

But behind or ahead of AA, who do you guys think is next?

My personal feelings is either AA or WN will be the launch operator.

Stitch · Fri Sep 02, 2011 5:23 am

WN has yet to order it. Evidently foreign customers are involved, so maybe FR finally pulled the trigger on the 200 frame order they've been holding back.

flyorski · Fri Sep 02, 2011 5:26 am

This will be exciting to watch

I would agree WN and of course AA. I know this is something most people do not consider, but I also think LH could order a small amount. They have always wanted a mixed fleet and with the last 737s retiring from the fleet, I could see them placing a small order. However for the launch customer I would guess WN, AA, QF (possible), and FR. JL or ANA could also be contenders.

FlyASAGuy2005 · Fri Sep 02, 2011 5:40 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
Evidently foreign customers are involved

Yes, because I keep reading in Boeing soundbites that they already have a commitment for 496 frames from 5 operators. My question is who. Then, I thought FR would be an obvious candidate but with their commitment to the COMAC project, i'm not sure we'll see them getting any or at the very least, they may mix the fleet but who knows with them.

Quoting flyorski (Reply 2):

I think we can definately add KL to the list.

CO/UA is a headscratcher though. They have a VERY robust fleet of new 738s and 739s (still taking deliveries). The fleet overall is quite young so I question when they will feel the need to augment or replace the frames. Even their earlier build 320s are quit younger than Delta's so I don't think they are necessarily in the same boat.

PlanesNTrains · Fri Sep 02, 2011 5:44 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
so maybe FR finally pulled the trigger on the 200 frame order they've been holding back.

I wonder if they would take a bunch of NG's - at a highly reduced rate, I'm sure - along with a good chunk of MAX's? They could be rolling over their fleet for the next 12-15 years leading up to the next all-new narrowbody.

-Dave

Stitch · Fri Sep 02, 2011 5:54 am

FR's issue is not price - it's the ability for them to resell the planes in short order.

With the 737MAX coming, the value of the 737NG is going to get crimped so perhaps FR feels there is no longer a reason to hold out and placed their order.

InsideMan · Fri Sep 02, 2011 8:15 am

the issue was PDPs and RVGs.

Boeing could probably sweeten the deal for FR with little to none PDPs, but RVGs go out the window now that the MAX is announced.... Will be interesting to see what happens with FR

FriendlySkies · Fri Sep 02, 2011 1:05 pm

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 3):
CO/UA is a headscratcher though. They have a VERY robust fleet of new 738s and 739s (still taking deliveries). The fleet overall is quite young so I question when they will feel the need to augment or replace the frames. Even their earlier build 320s are quit younger than Delta's so I don't think they are necessarily in the same boat.

The only thing I could see UA doing is possibly ordering ~100 737-9MAX or A321neo to replace UA's 757 fleet, which is starting to get long in the tooth. However, seeing that CO has ~55 737NGs on order yet, they could just replace most of the oldest 757s with 739ERs and push the fleet replacement til next decade and new narrowbodies.

fpetrutiu · Fri Sep 02, 2011 1:26 pm

Didn't UA cancelled all the A32X's that were to be delivered and forfeited their deposits a while back? Wonder why that was and what implications it might have on a potential order.

lightsaber · Fri Sep 02, 2011 1:45 pm

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 3):
Yes, because I keep reading in Boeing soundbites that they already have a commitment for 496 frames from 5 operators.

Not a bad start. Many airlines will take some time to review the offer, so more orders will follow quickly.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
so maybe FR finally pulled the trigger on the 200 frame order they've been holding back.

I would consider that a good possibility.

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 3):
I thought FR would be an obvious candidate but with their commitment to the COMAC project, i'm not sure we'll see them getting any or at the very least, they may mix the fleet but who knows with them.

FR's commitments to COMAC have so many holes it isn't even funny. I doubt they'll buy the C919 before 2020 (probably later, if ever). For FR's short missions, the greater fan diameter of the C919 is actually a net cost disadvantage.

Lightsaber

seabosdca · Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:02 pm

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 7):
The only thing I could see UA doing is possibly ordering ~100 737-9MAX or A321neo to replace UA's 757 fleet, which is starting to get long in the tooth. However, seeing that CO has ~55 737NGs on order yet, they could just replace most of the oldest 757s with 739ERs and push the fleet replacement til next decade and new narrowbodies.

They are definitely not in the urgent situation that DL and AA are. But I don't think they can last all the way until the mid-2020s without a narrow body order, because by then most of their A320 fleet would be over 30 years old. So I expect they'll buy some neo/MAX frames at some point, but they don't have to do it right away if they don't want to.

Plainplane · Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:03 pm

Since the most significant change in the 737 MAX program appears to be the engines could it potentially be made possible to put the newer engines on the older 737-700s, -800s, and -900s?

STT757 · Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:12 pm

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 3):
CO/UA is a headscratcher though.

Perhaps the 737-7 to replace PMCO's 737-500s.

2travel2know2 · Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:13 pm

If it comes with a 4800nm range, CM (thinking on PTY-MAD non-stop).

CRJ900 · Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:19 pm

Norwegian will probably order 50 x B737 Max 8, that is my bet.

fpetrutiu · Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:23 pm

Quoting Plainplane (Reply 11):
Since the most significant change in the 737 MAX program appears to be the engines could it potentially be made possible to put the newer engines on the older 737-700s, -800s, and -900s?

I would seriously doubt that. I really don't think it is as simple as hanging new engines.

ck8msp · Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:27 pm

So are the 100 firm 737 orders on Boeing's order book from AA NOT for the Max? Or were they the 737NG with the options being for the RE?

mauriceb · Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:32 pm

I could see airlines like Norwegian and KL to be amongst the first airlines to order the MAX.

Both have a significant fleet of 737NG's, and as far as KL is concerned, by the time the MAX is up for delivery, the first 737-800's are 19+ years old... I could see a combined Transavia/KL order, as HV is already replacing older NG frames, and want's to keep up with its filosofy of keeping the fleet young to stay away from technical problems.

Maybe some conversions from Lion Air?

STT757 · Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:43 pm

Quoting ck8msp (Reply 16):
So are the 100 firm 737 orders on Boeing's order book from AA NOT for the Max? Or were they the 737NG with the options being for the RE?

AA ordered from Boeing 100 737NGs (current model), plus 40 additional options.
AA also committed to ordering 100 737s with the new engine (MAX), plus 60 options.

http://boeing.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=1845

homeland545 · Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:55 pm

Maybe it could be Fly dubai, EL AL, Aeromexico for there SA ops :p and i forgot the name of the SE asian airline boeing was trying to convince to buy 737 instead of the NEO but i could be wrong

fpetrutiu · Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:59 pm

Quoting MauriceB (Reply 17):
Maybe some conversions from Lion Air?

I think they specifically said that these are NOT conversions, they are all new orders.

mptpa · Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:34 pm

I had take a wild stab and guess:
Chinese carriers
Korean Air
Air NZ
ANA
JAL
Jet Airways
FR
GOL
AeroMexico
COPA

Just wild guesses.....

Cheers.
MP TPA

usscvr · Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:39 pm

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Thread starter):
My personal feelings is either AA or WN will be the launch operator.

I feel that you are exactly right. I feel certain there were a lot of behind the scenes discussions with WN. Here’s why I feel it is so:

• WN is the largest US domestic carrier
• WN has had nearly 40 consecutive years as a profitable airline
• Meaning it makes good/sound business decisions and
• Meets its financial obligations
• WN is the largest 73X operator in the world
• WN is a single frame operator (currently) of the 73X with 560 active 73X airframes and 44 in storage
• 44 inactive 732 and 733 in storage
• 169 active 733
• 25 active 735
• 366 active 737NG
• WNs acquisition of FL provide additional leverage opportunities
• FL has 52 active 737NG
• WN will leverage the 88 FL 717s for MAX frames to maintain its 73X fleet

That means WN will operate 612 73X frames, some of which are aging and will eventually be retired. This will create the “need.” WN will have 88 717 frames that they really don’t want and can leverage for additional cash to purchase MAX frames and/or leverage for better pricing on MAX frames .

I really don’t want this to sound over simplified, but much like politics: Follow the Money. With this much money at stake on both sides, it makes good sense to factor who the major players will be.

bonusonus · Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:47 pm

Quoting Plainplane (Reply 11):
Since the most significant change in the 737 MAX program appears to be the engines could it potentially be made possible to put the newer engines on the older 737-700s, -800s, and -900s?

Highly doubtful. There will definitely be more modifications required than just engines. Most likely Boeing will have to do something to the landing gear to account for the 9 inches (or whatever it is) being added to the fan diameter. Either that or a reshaping of the engine pylon, or possibly both. People are talking about a new tailcone too for improved airflow/efficiency. With new engines, usually the hydraulics/wiring for them need to be revised. If Boeing goes with bleedless engines, I suspect this complicates things significantly too. On top of that, Boeing will probably offer a new, lighter interior, and maybe reduce the width of the sidewalls to provide a little bit more interior space.

fpetrutiu · Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:49 pm

Quoting bonusonus (Reply 23):
Most likely Boeing will have to do something to the landing gear to account for the 9 inches (or whatever it is) being added to the fan diameter.

There will be nothing done on the landing gear to my understanding, any changes would have to make major design changes to the fuselage.

FlyASAGuy2005 · Fri Sep 02, 2011 4:05 pm

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 7):
The only thing I could see UA doing is possibly ordering ~100 737-9MAX or A321neo to replace UA's 757 fleet, which is starting to get long in the tooth. However, seeing that CO has ~55 737NGs on order yet, they could just replace most of the oldest 757s with 739ERs and push the fleet replacement til next decade and new narrowbodies.

I think the second part is more likely. However, the first 737 Max has is to EIS around 2016, no? I guess many things can change in the next 5 years. As to the first part, I think 100 orders is on the very high side. The combined CO/UA fleet of 752s won't need that many frames, and then take into consideration that they probably won't be doing a 1 for 1 replacement, then umber would probably be smaller. I think something in the tune of 50 with 50 rolling options is more reasonable. CO also has those nice 753s that will most likely be around well into 2020, just like DL's.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 9):

FR's commitments to COMAC have so many holes it isn't even funny. I doubt they'll buy the C919 before 2020 (probably later, if ever). For FR's short missions, the greater fan diameter of the C919 is actually a net cost disadvantage.

What was the point? Or rather, what is your understanding. Were they just trying to get their foot into the Chinese market that's going gangbusters?

Quoting STT757 (Reply 12):
Perhaps the 737-7 to replace PMCO's 737-500s.

Seating capacity is similar but I thought the whole premise between the 73G and 738 was that they both have very similar operating costs so might as well go for the larger frame. Some of those markets that they currently send the -500s to IMO could support the 738. Atlanta for example, comes to mind. I think what will determain the make-up of UA's lower end market will be the outcome of the pilot contracts. If things continue the way they are, I think they will have no choice but to look at the CS300. The lack of large RJs will decide what happens I think.

Quoting usscvr (Reply 22):
WN will leverage the 88 FL 717s for MAX frames to maintain its 73X fleet

It's a lot of frames to simply park but I think Boeing will end up eating the cost of those frames in the long run if/when WN decides on a 737 Max replacement for their 733s and 735s. Let's not forget that 738s will be on property come 2012 so capacity is on its way.

[Edited 2011-09-02 09:08:33]

seabosdca · Fri Sep 02, 2011 4:07 pm

Quoting bonusonus (Reply 23):
There will definitely be more modifications required than just engines.

The rendering shows the new tailcone and new canoes, and appears to show elimination of one body join on the 737-7. We've also heard rumors of fly-by-wire spoilers, and possibly ailerons and/or elevators. All of those are modifications beyond the engines, but none should cost a fortune.

The new, lighter interior (Sky Interior) has already been developed and put into service. There's absolutely no way they'll go bleedless.

XT6Wagon · Fri Sep 02, 2011 4:21 pm

Quoting bonusonus (Reply 23):
Most likely Boeing will have to do something to the landing gear to account for the 9 inches (or whatever it is) being added to the fan diameter

No, They in fact will NOT have to do anything to the landing gear. Its been gone over lots and lots of times, but they have a huge number of options before reworking 1/2 the plane for longer landing gear. Oh and its a 5" increase IIRC (61->66"), which is a mere 2.5" loss of clearence under the engine.

delimit · Fri Sep 02, 2011 4:21 pm

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 25):
However, the first 737 Max has is to EIS around 2016, no?

2017, but that could possibly change. The program is still being defined.

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 25):
What was the point? Or rather, what is your understanding. Were they just trying to get their foot into the Chinese market that's going gangbusters?

FR rather likes publicity. It's was also a bit of sabre-rattling at Boeing.

[Edited 2011-09-02 09:28:12]

TP313 · Fri Sep 02, 2011 4:24 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 26):
and possibly [...] elevators

I understand aileron FBW for wing load alleviation / drag reduction purposes, but what would be gained extending FBW to the tail surfaces?
I think if Boeing is clever they will not touch the pitch and yaw control systems.
If they go there, they might as well develop a whole new FBW FCS, and that doesn't come cheap (development and certification costs).

FlyASAGuy2005 · Fri Sep 02, 2011 4:52 pm

Quoting delimit (Reply 28):
FR rather likes publicity. It's was also a bit of sabre-rattling at Boeing.

LOL now that you put it that way and looking back at what lightsaber originally said, it all makes sense (FR sense that is).

Navigator · Fri Sep 02, 2011 4:52 pm

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Thread starter):
But behind or ahead of AA, who do you guys think is next?

I think you stay inside your US borders too much. Think worldwide... Start thinking Ryanair and such and maybe we have an answer

einsteinboricua · Fri Sep 02, 2011 5:05 pm

Would DL be willing to rethink their 737 order and split it so that the first frames are current 737s and future ones are MAX?

How about UA/CO? With far more Boeing 737s than A32Xs, wouldn't it make sense to phase out the A320s in favor of 737 MAX? Of course, this is assuming that the 737MAX can indeed outperform the NEO and/or be as capable as current A32Xs.

I don't think US would order any, given their all Airbus fleet, but one can dream...

FlyASAGuy2005 · Fri Sep 02, 2011 5:06 pm

Quoting Navigator (Reply 31):
I think you stay inside your US borders too much. Think worldwide... Start thinking Ryanair and such and maybe we have an answer

Yes indeed this will be a global airframe. I think we'll see very impressive orders much like the NEO.

Stitch · Fri Sep 02, 2011 5:16 pm

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 25):
However, the first 737 Max has is to EIS around 2016, no?

Quoting delimit (Reply 28):
2017, but that could possibly change.

A 2017 EIS assumes significant "unknown unknowns" cropping up. Boeing expects that if things go smoothly, EIS will be 2016 (the smoother things go, the earlier in 2016 EIS would occur).

delimit · Fri Sep 02, 2011 5:18 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 34):
A 2017 EIS assumes significant "unknown unknowns" cropping up. Boeing expects that if things go smoothly, EIS will be 2016 (the smoother things go, the earlier in 2016 EIS would occur).

Thanks for the correction.

I thought 2017 was being a tad too conservative (although I am perfectly happy with Boeing being conservative for a bit

), but the number was stuck in my head.

blueman87 · Fri Sep 02, 2011 8:37 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 18):
AA ordered from Boeing 100 737NGs (current model), plus 40 additional options.
AA also committed to ordering 100 737s with the new engine (MAX), plus 60 options.

http://boeing.mediaroom.com/index.ph...=1845

i was just about to ask if AA ordered them allready

contrails15 · Fri Sep 02, 2011 9:15 pm

Going a little out of the box here BUT Alaska and Sun Country if of course there still around to get any of these planes. Gives Sun Country some series legs to fly to places they can't now.

bonusonus · Fri Sep 02, 2011 9:25 pm

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 27):
Oh and its a 5" increase IIRC (61->66"), which is a mere 2.5" loss of clearence under the engine.

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...ons-for-737-from-787-overruns.html
This article has a bit more detail on the MAX, including a bunch of renderings, as seabosdca referred to above.
According to the article, Boeing still hasn't decided between a 66" fan or a 68" fan.

Sounds like the a/c has about 6 inches of margin with the fan on the NG before the engine nacelle gets too low, so that would mean that either fan can be added without any modification to the plane itself. That's surprising, because the NG's engines/nacelles are already specially designed to provide more ground clearance.

fpetrutiu · Fri Sep 02, 2011 9:27 pm

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 32):
Would DL be willing to rethink their 737 order and split it so that the first frames are current 737s and future ones are MAX?

Doubt it, all the 737-900ER's should be delived by 2018 to satisfy their immediate need.

babybus · Fri Sep 02, 2011 10:51 pm

It's going to have to be the Japanese as always I presume. I feel sorry for them in many ways always having to pick up the gauntlet. I suppose they'll benefit from some serious introductory benefits for their efforts.

It should be an interesting bird when it arrives.

ER757 · Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:17 pm

Don't know if they'll be first, but I'd bet AS will be an early customer, if not one of the five already committed. Their current fleet is all 737 and I think it'll remain so for quite some time

FlyASAGuy2005 · Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:24 pm

Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 39):
Doubt it, all the 737-900ER's should be delived by 2018 to satisfy their immediate need.

I think Stitch put it best although he was talking about the actual EIS of the 737 Max but I think the analogy can be applied here. Many "unknowns" can happen between now and just about the middle of the deliveries. Boeing may very well firm up on say a 2017 EIS (arguments sake) and DL may say, okay, we want to defer the last batch of 739 deliveries and convert them to the Max (I like the sound of that

). The delivery schedule as it stands is 12 aircraft in 2013, 19 aircraft per year from 2014 through 2017, and the remaining 12 in 2018. So by looking at the delivery schedule, there's a little bit of flexibility on converting some of the back end orders to the reengine option (jsut saying).

[Edited 2011-09-02 16:42:45]

VZLA787 · Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:58 pm

Now,for example, if AA orders the new 737-8 MAX, will this new aircraft also be a 737-823?
Will there be any difference in the way we identify these birds from the current ones flying?

FlyASAGuy2005 · Sat Sep 03, 2011 1:53 am

Quoting VZLA787 (Reply 43):
Now,for example, if AA orders the new 737-8 MAX, will this new aircraft also be a 737-823?
Will there be any difference in the way we identify these birds from the current ones flying?

That is jsut Boeing's customer number. No telling how they will do it with the 787s and the 737 Max. They may very well jsut drop it. It won't be a huge deal. C/Ns is what really counts.

ghifty · Sat Sep 03, 2011 2:24 am

Quoting VZLA787 (Reply 43):

Now,for example, if AA orders the new 737-8 MAX, will this new aircraft also be a 737-823?
Will there be any difference in the way we identify these birds from the current ones flying?

I'd imagine the same way the A320NEO and the A320 will be differentiated. Without any..

PlanesNTrains · Sat Sep 03, 2011 3:21 am

Quoting Babybus (Reply 40):
It's going to have to be the Japanese as always I presume. I feel sorry for them in many ways always having to pick up the gauntlet. I suppose they'll benefit from some serious introductory benefits for their efforts.

Please tell me you're not implying that the only way Boeing is going to get this plane launched is by the Japanese taking a bullet for them? If you are really saying that, I'd be very dissappointed in you here. If not, then perhaps a clarification is in order.

-Dave

calpsafltskeds · Sat Sep 03, 2011 3:52 am

I've looked through the MAX threads, but haven't seen how the efficiencies will play out. I thought I read where the engines will be heavier. That probably means that the MAX will have longer range instead of maybe a lighter GTOW on shorter distances.

You'd think if WN would rather have an aircraft that just makes transcon rather than a longer range aircraft, which would probably be less efficient on shorter hauls.

While I don't think anyone realistically thinks the MAX will match the range of the 752, how would a increase on 738 range really benefit domestic carriers? TATL would be most limited at best to maybe NY/BOS-Ireland.

Would they rather have a lighter, more efficient aircraft that has the 738 range?

flood · Sat Sep 03, 2011 3:55 am

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Thread starter):
My personal feelings is either AA or WN will be the launch operator.

AA apparently aren't interested in being the launch operator.

From Leeham:
"We asked American about this. Sean Collins, director of financial communications for the airline, confirmed American doesn’t want to be the first operator of the aircraft.’
“We don’t like to be the first in line for a new airplane,” he said. “There is a learning curve to be worked out. We like to let that process work its way out. That’s the approach we’ve taken.”
http://leehamnews.wordpress.com/2011...737re-but-not-the-launch-operator/

WN wouldn't surprise me though.

XT6Wagon · Sat Sep 03, 2011 4:40 am

Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 47):
While I don't think anyone realistically thinks the MAX will match the range of the 752, how would a increase on 738 range really benefit domestic carriers? TATL would be most limited at best to maybe NY/BOS-Ireland.

Its a "free" range increase if what we are hearing is true. The extra range is completely from a reduction in fuel burn, and there will be no lowering of payload or increase in empty weight. So the cost of the extra performance will be on the capital cost side and no increased operational costs.

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