Hello Fellow Airliner Forum Friends

It's been a long, long time since I've last posted (2008) and I'm now working on my own business trading foreign exchange and other financial instruments. I still maintain my passion in aviation and I'm always looking at airline competition within Australia. As most of you would know from a business perspective airlines are extremely risky - they come and go constantly.

This is normally a question I'd post on a business forum but I'm genuinely interested in fellow airline enthusiasts opinions as to who will be here in 5 years and who will go.

As of today Australia has the following:

- QF (Qantas)
- JQ (Jetstar - Budget subsidary of Qantas)
- DJ (Virgin Blue A.K.A Virgin Australia)
- VA (V Australia)
- TT (Tiger Airways - Minor subsidary of Singapore Airlines)
- VC (Strategic Airlines A.K.A Air Australia)

I haven't included ZL (Rex) or other airlines servicing remote locations and/or mining towns as they can't be compared against international players.

My four strongest players who I beleive will outlast the rest are:
- Qantas
- Jetstar
- Virgin Australia
- V Australia

Generally speaking past history has shown that the Australian market has only had room for 2 airlines. I'm being generous by placing four on a permanent list due to the fact that:

- Qantas has a "cult" following amongst business travellers and their frequent flyer program has now grown to the point where points are earned on numerous credit cards, the biggest supermarket chain in Australia, petrol stations, restaurants and the second biggest telecommunications company in Australia. This is in addition to the fact that QF are the only carrier which offer a First Class option for international flights. If worse comes to worse Qantas can always merge Jetstar and its assets.

- Virgin Australia and V Australia are now a real competition to Qantas. Their rewards program"Velocitity" is again very familiar to everyday Australians and the "Virgin Group" is simply too large to let either of their airlines fail. Virgin is catering to middle to upper class passengers with lounges at all major Australian airports equal to or better than the Qantas business lounge and many companies are making the move to incorporate Virgin over Qantas for their employees due to the slight price difference in business price fares. The Virgin Group has confirmed approval for codeshare between Delta and is currently formalising agreements with American Airlines and Air New Zealand.

There really isn't a question in here, I'm just after your comments and opinions. Virgin seem to have come out of no where. The VBA share price has been very volatile and remains low despite these huge new proposals and announcements. With Virgin Australia and V Australia now offering exceptional services to both business cutomers and discount family fares within Australia at a lower price than Qantas - with a newer fleet - will they become a real threat to Qantas?

Quoting airranger (Thread starter): My four strongest players who I beleive will outlast the rest are: - Qantas - Jetstar - Virgin Australia - V Australia

IMHO that is really only the traditional two airlines. QF & JQ server two different market segments for the one owner and VA and DJ are in the process of being amalgamated. (I use amalgamated rather than merged as they are both owned by Virgin Blue Holding and VA was only set up separately due to restrictions on the use of the Virgin name.

It is Tiger and Air Australia that are the one to watch and who's future is more unpredictable.

Gemuser

I completely agree. It'll be interesting to see the future of VBA - I was considering changing my FF over to Velocity but I just don't think it's worth it.

There will likely be further consolidation in coming years, in some shape or form.

Given that VA and DJ are essentially the same carrier, and will both named Virgin Australia soon, it is alittle different to the QF/JQ situation. The only reason they used the V Australia name was because of the name dispute with SQ.

A few possibile combinations:

- Virgin Australia/ Tiger
Offers DJ/VA a LCC option, along with further links to SQ. Offers TT international rights, if 50% of the airline is Australian.

- Virgin Australia/ Air Australia
Offers DJ/VA a LCC option.

- Tiger/ Air Australia
Offers TT international rights, if 50% of the airline is Australian. Offers Air Australia a larger foothold in the domestic market, and the benefits of increased feed into International flights.

Indianic,

I would have to agree with your VA and Tiger combo fully. It just makes more sense than the other two. Paves the way for a Star Alliance membership, thanks to Singapore Airlines of course, and on the way, putting pressure on both JQ and QF on both fronts.

VA787

^^ Fully agree. Thats the most likely.

The other 2 are more remote options, but in this industry, who knows  

Quoting VA787 (Reply 4): I would have to agree with your VA and Tiger combo fully.

Would that make it a Virgin pussy?   

Quoting gemuser (Reply 1): IMHO that is really only the traditional two airlines. QF & JQ server two different market segments for the one owner and VA and DJ are in the process of being amalgamated. (I use amalgamated rather than merged as they are both owned by Virgin Blue Holding and VA was only set up separately due to restrictions on the use of the Virgin name.

Couldn't have said it better myself. We have to remember the massive differences in markets in Australia: your large internationals such as QF and VA, the LCCs such as JQ and TT, and the regionals such as Rex.

On the major airline front I see paradigmatic shift between Qantas and Virgin similar to that of what we have experienced here in Canada. AC once reigned supreme in what was very close to a monopoly, but in the past decade WS has surged and gained significant market share every year since (albeit mostly on the domestic side of operations). I can chalk this up to two somewhat connected reasons:

1) Qantas was not so long ago the quintessential Australian airline. With the demise of Ansett they had their road pretty much paved. But then they let allowed their international arm to falter and now we have all of this talk about moving operations to Asia.

2) John Borghetti- CEO of V Australia. The once COO of Qantas who was next in line to lead "Australia's Airline" after Geoff Dixon's retirement was snuffed by the board in favour of Jetstar CEO Alan Joyce. This slap in the face prompted Mr. Borghetti to leave the company he had served for 35 years to bring his vision to a company like Virgin who was more than welcome to whatever he had to bring to the table, and we are now seeing that have an extremely positive impact on their outlook. Mr. Joyce on the other hand came from an LCC background, meaning he lives by the balance sheet. You cannot run customer/product-focused airline and be overwhelmingly concerned with penny-pinching. Thus we find Qantas now being held afloat by their domestic arm.

I'm very fond of LCCs. As a self-supporting student I find few things as convenient. My opinion is that little will change in Australia in terms of this market. For years to come we will continue to see Jetstar offer a superior low-cost product, while we have Tiger offer a terrible product (and terrible safety violations), but at irresistible fares. When I lived in Australia I found myself tempted by Tiger's low fares far too many times...

Again, for the regional market, Rex will remain on top. VFR traffic isn't going anywhere and Rex knows how to capture it. I love their marketing and the fact that they have an in-house flight school to graduate future Rex pilots is brilliant. Expansion is limited, but increasing product value may entice more small-market traffic.

As I mentioned in another post, I'm excited to see how things go for Air Australia. I read a brief history on VC and it seems that they have been rather stagnant as of late. I love the name, I love the livery, and I wish all the best for them. I will certainly be keeping track of their progress and hope to fly with them next time I'm on the continent.

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 7): 2) John Borghetti- CEO of V Australia. The once COO of Qantas who was next in line to lead "Australia's Airline" after Geoff Dixon's retirement was snuffed by the board in favour of Jetstar CEO Alan Joyce. This slap in the face prompted Mr. Borghetti to leave the company he had served for 35 years to bring his vision to a company like Virgin who was more than welcome to whatever he had to bring to the table, and we are now seeing that have an extremely positive impact on their outlook. Mr. Joyce on the other hand came from an LCC background, meaning he lives by the balance sheet. You cannot run customer/product-focused airline and be overwhelmingly concerned with penny-pinching. Thus we find Qantas now being held afloat by their domestic arm.

As has been raised numerous times before, his 'vision' is no different to what QF are doing now. uilding partnerships to create a sustainable global network. They are just airlines starting in different places, tryting to achieve similar goals.

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 7): Again, for the regional market, Rex will remain on top. VFR traffic isn't going anywhere and Rex knows how to capture it. I love their marketing and the fact that they have an in-house flight school to graduate future Rex pilots is brilliant. Expansion is limited, but increasing product value may entice more small-market traffic.

Rex's issue is getting the right aircraft to replace is Saab fleet in coming years. There really are not many commuter options out there in that size range anymore.

Rex is not going that well at present from some reports, with talk of a network restructure on the cards, and with QF Link and the new Virgin Australia/Skywest operation coming into play, there are some fundamental issues facing them also.

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 7): As I mentioned in another post, I'm excited to see how things go for Air Australia. I read a brief history on VC and it seems that they have been rather stagnant as of late. I love the name, I love the livery, and I wish all the best for them. I will certainly be keeping track of their progress and hope to fly with them next time I'm on the continent.

It will be a challenge, but it will be interesting to see how this attempt to re-focus pays off.

Quoting allrite (Reply 6):

Lol 

I believe however that it would remain as a strong partnership between the two, not a merger as such. Haha that would be interesting though   

VA787

Quoting allrite (Reply 6): Would that make it a Virgin pussy?

Well they are changing their group name to the 'VAG'....(virgin australia group)

Virgin is trying to imitate QF in every way, partner airlines extending the international reach, they have started the 'Capitalconnect' (hello city flyer...), and changing the Velocity program to be very very close to qantas frequent flyer....and now they have been offering QF frequent flyers a deal to transfer across with their status to Velocity...

hmmm appears Virgin is very desperate if they can't entice customers with own product or ideas...to all the people who bag QF, DJ have been copying QFs business model...goes to show QF have been doing it right all along for the upper end of the market, something that Brett Godfrey had obviously not been intune with in his approach to lure the market.

Where this brings us to though, does this mean Virgin will ultimately give up on the lower cost segment of the market completely? at the moment it feels like the airline is still trying to serve both, and it's just a mess at present, it doesn't serve either ideally. So I do wonder how far down the track they spawn an LCC of their own, one airline can't serve both effectively. QF have been very successful in how it has used JQ. As some have posted, a partnership/merger with TT could indeed be a real possibility.

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 8): Rex's issue is getting the right aircraft to replace is Saab fleet in coming years. There really are not many commuter options out there in that size range anymore.

Excellent point. I hadn't really considered such a crucial internal factor. With an average fleet age of 15.5 years I'm sure they will be looking to replace a number of those aircraft in the foreseeable future.

If they want to continue using turboprops their only viable options really are Q400s or ATR 42's. The only RJ that comes to mind in the 30-50 seat range is the E135. This is all assuming current yields dictate a demand for simlar sized aircraft to what they are currently operating (Saab 340B).

Virgin is yet to prove itself IMO, but a partnership with either VC or TT would be good. QF I can see becoming more exclusive, using JQ as a vessel for growth into markets where there isn't a business/premium tourist style market (and increasingly overlapping to maximise both brands). VC is still tentative in my mind -- they could either sink or swim (especially after the first few months) and I think TT (unless they get on board with VA) will likely pull out of Australia in the next 24 months.

Quoting VA787 (Reply 4): Paves the way for a Star Alliance membership

While I get the logic, I'm still not convinced that this is going to happen (at least for a long time anyway). Virgin doesn't need to be a part of an alliance, so why would they want to constrict themselves and limit their options by committing themselves to one?

Quoting allrite (Reply 6): Would that make it a Virgin pussy?

This thread just got interesting  

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 8): QF Link

Introducing QantasRex.

Quoting 747m8te (Reply 10): hmmm appears Virgin is very desperate if they can't entice customers with own product or ideas

Bang on. When VS was started they had an ultramodern, ultrachic sort of look that was completely different to what others were offering at the time. Bad news: the rest of the world has caught up. While the VA look and feel would have made a big splash 5 or 6 years ago in this market, I think that QF has managed to preempt the threat and innovate itself to the extent that VA can't economically hope to differentiate themselves. They can match QF, and will match them well, but they can't offer any real incentive or overly compelling reason to jump ship.

Hopefully as the continue their trickle of new stuff (and if the new A332s are mindbogglingly good) then they will build their case and win some minds. The majority (vast, vast majority) will sit tight though IMHO.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 12): and I think TT (unless they get on board with VA) will likely pull out of Australia in the next 24 months.

Big call to make there.

I still think that SQ will try and move TT into DJ/VA's line of sight for a partnership/ownership arragement in the next couple of years, but even if the bait isnt taken, not sure they will give up that quickly.

TT need to get its product right, from customer service through to reliability, which will then put them in a stronger position to actually compete.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 12): Bang on. When VS was started they had an ultramodern, ultrachic sort of look that was completely different to what others were offering at the time. Bad news: the rest of the world has caught up. While the VA look and feel would have made a big splash 5 or 6 years ago in this market, I think that QF has managed to preempt the threat and innovate itself to the extent that VA can't economically hope to differentiate themselves. They can match QF, and will match them well, but they can't offer any real incentive or overly compelling reason to jump ship.

It is much harder to truely innovate these days it seems.

So many ideas have been implemented, but the greatest change has been more a race to the bottom than anything else. In this case, DJ/VA are actually making a different move here. All DJ/VA can do is try and catch QF in terms of offering, and hopefully do it better. True innovation in product will be harder to achieve.

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 13): Big call to make there.

I like to be bold   I might be a bit drastic on the timeline, but ultimately if TT is faced with additional costs, another competitor (VC), a restricted ability to grow (at least at first as per CASA restrictions) and a potentially tough time convincing the public to fly with them then I don't see why they'd bother sticking around. There are significantly bigger profits to be made elsewhere in the world with 8 A320 than in the highly competitive and crowded Australian market.

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 13): True innovation in product will be harder to achieve.

And that's the problem. How do they stand out and do something new to captivate the attention of the public and big spending corporations. You have to get pax to try you out and experience your service before they are going to consider moving their business, and that pool of status QFFs isn't seeing much reason to even try a single flight (at least all those that I know, including an executive who controls several million dollars annual travel spending -- apparently the deal they were offered undercut QF by the smallest of fractions).

Quoting qf002 (Reply 14): I don't see why they'd bother sticking around.

Although I do completely understand where you are coming from, this is where I believe the VA/Tiger alliance (whatever you want to call it) comes into action. Maybe they see the opportunity with VA?

But who knows ATM, it seems that currently aviation is entirely a roll of the dice so to speak, with both actions being taken and consequences being almost impossible to predict.
  

VA787

Quoting airranger (Thread starter): The Virgin Group has confirmed approval for codeshare between Delta and is currently formalising agreements with American Airlines and Air New Zealand.

What kind of deal is Virgin Australia doing with AA ? AA is deep in with Qantas, I would think QF would want no part of that and tell AA to go to hell. AA has to much invested in OneWorld, BA and QF, why would they want anything with Virgin Australia ?

The opportunity for Tiger to have pulled out of Australia was the recent grounding situation, but they didn't.I suggest they will be around for the long term whether that is getting into bed with Virgin Australia or being a feed in Australia for Scoot .

I reckon Tiger will never get the load factors they used to, due to the grounding, people will be worried to fly them, my guess was they they would fold.

Quoting 747m8te (Reply 10): Well they are changing their group name to the 'VAG'....(virgin australia group) Virgin is trying to imitate QF in every way, partner airlines extending the international reach, they have started the 'Capitalconnect' (hello city flyer...), and changing the Velocity program to be very very close to qantas frequent flyer....and now they have been offering QF frequent flyers a deal to transfer across with their status to Velocity... hmmm appears Virgin is very desperate if they can't entice customers with own product or ideas...to all the people who bag QF, DJ have been copying QFs business model...goes to show QF have been doing it right all along for the upper end of the market, something that Brett Godfrey had obviously not been intune with in his approach to lure the market. Where this brings us to though, does this mean Virgin will ultimately give up on the lower cost segment of the market completely? at the moment it feels like the airline is still trying to serve both, and it's just a mess at present, it doesn't serve either ideally. So I do wonder how far down the track they spawn an LCC of their own, one airline can't serve both effectively. QF have been very successful in how it has used JQ. As some have posted, a partnership/merger with TT could indeed be a real possibility.

747m8te - Who do you think created CityFlyer, QFF Platinum Benefits/Chairmans Lounge Benefits, The First Lounges, The QF First Host/Concierge, The agreement with ACCOR hotels to run the First Lounges, the Joint BA/QF Lounges - The Now CEO of Virgin Australia - Mr John Borghetti (He is a true leader with great vision, intergrity and is well respected among those at Virgin Australia).

Now look at QF under JQ'S old boss - He just copied John Borghetti's strategy of hubbing through major Cities, took away Platinum Benefits of particular note - anytime access to Lounges starting a Premium Brand based in Asia and also LCC Jetstar Japan and has one of the lowest morales in Industrial relations ever even lower than Geoff Dixon and thats saying something!!!!

I thank god I chose the Right Airline to work for (I was offered jobs at both Carriers) - the one thats Changing the Game!!

As for Brett Godfrey - he was a leader that was working within the parameters of his business model - Premium Economy was a fantastic idea just poorly executed, Blue Room / The Lounge fantastic idea suited the market at the time!!! He was a true innovater that came in and shook the market!!!

And yes Virgin Australia can be all things to all people - Just like QF used to be!!!!

Quoting VA787 (Reply 15): Although I do completely understand where you are coming from, this is where I believe the VA/Tiger alliance (whatever you want to call it) comes into action. Maybe they see the opportunity with VA?

A partnership here is the only thing that will keep them in Australia IMHO.

Quoting eaglefarm4 (Reply 17): feed in Australia for Scoot

I don't think Scoot (hopefully they change the name) is going to be a major airline - they will maybe have a couple of routes into Australia/NZ but if they're a proper LCC then there won't be any connections or interlining, which means there's no room for dependence on other airlines for feed.

Quoting DJMEL (Reply 19): Mr John Borghetti

Wohaaaaaaaa let's just take a step back! JB was a part of a leadership team at QF which was governed by a board of directors. He didn't just pick up the phone and do what he wanted - his ideas were a part of those of the entire group and you can hardly claim that QF today can be totally attributed to JB. The fact that he wasn't offered CEO at QF (madness, I agree!) says to me that he wasn't considered by the board to be the visionary leader that we often hear about.

Quoting DJMEL (Reply 19): I thank god I chose the Right Airline to work for (I was offered jobs at both Carriers) - the one thats Changing the Game!!

So it's fair to say that there is some bias in your opinions!!

Quoting DJMEL (Reply 19): As for Brett Godfrey

Again, Godfrey is a single individual. It's not all that common in reality for the CEO of a corporation to be the mastermind behind all the great ideas -- they are rarely the innovator, more the one who shapes and drives innovation. The ideas come from the employees who are paid to study the market and figure out how to further develop the business.

Quoting DJMEL (Reply 19): And yes Virgin Australia can be all things to all people - Just like QF used to be!!!!

Really? Cos I don't see VA offering extensive international services like QF do, or with any visible future of opening up a raft of destinations across the world. They serve LAX and AUH and there's no sign of international growth (ie no outstanding orders for aircraft, cancelling BNE-AUH etc). Using partners is a clever way of building a global network, but you're always going to suffer from the lack of brand involved in your wide reaching operations. People won't know "Virgin Australia Service" like they know "Qantas Service", and that to me could be an issue down the track when the gloss wears off and the new brand has to prove itself. Like I've said in other posts -- what does VA offer me that I can't get with QF?

Sorry for such a negative post    I love the fact that you're so passionate about the airline you work for!! I'm hoping to get into either VA or QF one day soon  

QF002 , Tiger have just recently announced that they will rebrand in Australia possibly as early as late 2012.Sources within airline management have heard this rumor, that Tiger may rebrand as Scoot, or whatever they are to be called.
Who knows, but they have stated many times that they are here for the long term.

Quoting eaglefarm4 (Reply 21): Tiger have just recently announced that they will rebrand in Australia possibly as early as late 2012

Where did this come from?? Not questioning you, just wondering how I missed the announcement and curious as to what was said!!

Quoting eaglefarm4 (Reply 21): Sources within airline management have heard this rumor, that Tiger may rebrand as Scoot, or whatever they are to be called.

I'm sorry, but I can't help thinking that Scoot should have a livery something like this (apologies for bad Photoshopping):

Scoot Air mockup

And my tag line would be:

Aww Scoot, it's s'cute

Thank you, thank you. I fully expect to be offered a job in the marketing department of an airline any day now.

Can anyone else see this brand working in Australia?

Sorry, more stuff I thought up over lunch.

Scoot: now you can afford to take the whole family!



Scoot: The 2 stroke version of Singapore Airlines.

"Scoot the Scat at Jetstar. Singapore and beyond on Scoot Airways."

I think it would be a really awesome touch if the FAs rode around the plane on scooters when doing the service, maybe they could have complimentary transfer service for premium class passengers, using a fleet of dirty old scooters to do airport-hostel rides.

Quoting eaglefarm4 (Reply 21): QF002 , Tiger have just recently announced that they will rebrand in Australia possibly as early as late 2012.Sources within airline management have heard this rumor, that Tiger may rebrand as Scoot, or whatever they are to be called. Who knows, but they have stated many times that they are here for the long term.

This was rumoured during their grounding. Plenty of rumours have been raised about TT, from those in and outside the carrier, so who knows. Scoot is a terrible name though.

I agree that they are likely to stay for the long term though. Its still a strategic move that makes sense, ut it will be hard work.

Quoting DJMEL (Reply 19): And yes Virgin Australia can be all things to all people - Just like QF used to be!!!!

Errrrr since when did QF suit all markets and be all things to all people??? They started JQ so they could tap into the low cost market, which came to head after the introduction of Impulse and Virgin Blue, QF by itself never attempted to tap that market with its business model, again hense why they used JQ (and even for their leisure routes to asia they had the short lived 'australian' brand flying).

Quoting Shnoob940 (Reply 18): Now look at QF under JQ'S old boss - He just copied John Borghetti's strategy of hubbing through major Cities

And since when were these ideas soley John Borghetti's? This has been the basis of QF structure for a long time, he hasn't copied anything, it's not like someone was going to walk into QF and change this overnight! Having said that, I agree with you though that Joyce still isn't the right person for the job...

Quoting qf002 (Reply 20): JB was a part of a leadership team at QF which was governed by a board of directors. He didn't just pick up the phone and do what he wanted - his ideas were a part of those of the entire group and you can hardly claim that QF today can be totally attributed to JB.

Exactly right! ...JB isn't god like!

No it was actually mentioned that it would happen by the new Tiger Singapore CEO Chin Yau Seng .

^^ Got a link to that? I never heard it officially stated.

Quoting 747m8te (Reply 27): They started JQ so they could tap into the low cost market,

They started JQ because they had to.
It was a defensive move, almost forced onto QF.
If QF didn't enter the low cost market, someone else would have...

Found this re possible Tiger re branding under Wings down under blog-Flight global

Re-branding not ruled out
If and when Tiger resumes services it will likely do so under its existing brand, but the carrier has not ruled out a re-branding exercise in the future. "When we resume services we intend to keep our brand," Chin said. He added that the group was working on a "number of initiatives".

^^ Not sure that's much to go off, given it's quite vague. Rebranding could well be the ideal time for SQ to really chase a DJ/VA partnership for TT.