IAG Closer To Buying EI?

BlueShamu330s · Fri Sep 09, 2011 9:36 am

Quote:

"A merger between Aer Lingus and British Airways -- now headed by former Aer Lingus boss Willie Walsh -- was today being considered a real possibility by industry analysts as the Government considers selling off its stake in Aer Lingus.

The Cabinet was today due to consider proposals to sell its 25pc stake in the airline along with other State assets.

But the willingness by Aer Lingus' other major shareholder, Ryanair, to sell its share is fuelling talk of an Aer Lingus/British Airways merger.

Ryanair, which twice mounted bids to take over the national airline, said it was open to selling its share of just under 30pc."

Ryanair clears the way for BA to take over Aer Lingus

All the fun of the Heathrow slots...

Rgds

commavia · Fri Sep 09, 2011 11:10 am

It makes sense. At a national level, Ireland's most important strategic relationship with with the U.K. for obvious geographic, cultural and economic reasons. Thus, if all else could be worked out, Aer Lingus tying up with BA (as they already have been, to a lesser extent, for years) seems logical.

BA would no doubt love getting access to more Heathrow slots, although I'd imagine the Irish government would probably put some sort of a stipulation on the deal that some number of Heathrow slots would have to stay on Ireland service into the future - a stipulation I'm sure BA would probably be willing to agree to.

lhr380 · Fri Sep 09, 2011 11:44 am

Interesting news. I have a feeling BA would love to get back into the Irish market. BA of course codeshare on a lot of the the Irish UK traffic for connecting flights, so EI is sort of a feeder for BA euro and longhaul flights.

Cant wait to see how this plays out

LHRFlyer · Fri Sep 09, 2011 11:50 am

Although the Irish Government would indeed want assurances that links between the UK and Ireland will be maintained, there would still be a benefit in pooling arrival/departure slots between IAG members and reallocating slots as required to suit the schedules of IAG members.

Interesting times ahead!

commavia · Fri Sep 09, 2011 1:12 pm

Quoting LHRFlyer (Reply 3):
Although the Irish Government would indeed want assurances that links between the UK and Ireland will be maintained, there would still be a benefit in pooling arrival/departure slots between IAG members and reallocating slots as required to suit the schedules of IAG members.

Exactly - I'm sure that BA would love to have the flexibility to co-mingle the EI slots with the existing BA/IB ones, plus even AA's pool, too. Given that flexibility, and access to one of the largest single chunks of precious LHR slots, I'm sure BA would be more than happy to make some sort of assurances to maintain access to DUB/SNN/ORK/BFS, at certain frequencies, etc.

Clydenairways · Fri Sep 09, 2011 1:17 pm

Quoting blueshamu330s (Thread starter):
A merger between Aer Lingus and British Airways

Hmmm, i don't think a merger is on the cards. IAG may buy the government stake in EI but a merger? I think not.

vv701 · Fri Sep 09, 2011 2:27 pm

Quoting clydenairways (Reply 5):
Hmmm, i don't think a merger is on the cards. IAG may buy the government stake in EI but a merger? I think not.

What is your reasoning?

On the positive side:

There are no competition concerns. BA does not fly to either Ireland or Northern Ireland. There is a single daily flight by Iberia Regional between MAD and DUB.

Under the IAG umbrella EI could retain its distinct brand as per BA and IB.

Becoming a oneworld member (again) is hardly going to have any unfavourable impact.

Pooling EI's LHR slots (332 per week) with those of BA (4,040), IB (154) and AA (236) to give each airline the best possible slot timing for each of its flights will benefit all four airlines' passengers

Cost savings on fleet renewal and expansion would be significant.

Cost savings on all other purchases through group buying.

EI could legally remain an Irish airline within the IAG group structure.

Maintenance reduced in cost and more flexible

IAG CEO is an Irish national

IAG CEO intimately knows EI operations

Cannot think of any negatives except that if EI have any hidden problems the IAG CEO probably knows what they are. But if there are any negatives I will be interested to hear them!

AA787 · Fri Sep 09, 2011 2:45 pm

Quoting VV701 (Reply 6):
What is your reasoning?

He is saying that he would expect BA to buy EI, but would rule out the two of them merging (a la DL and NW).

The Irish government would never let their airline be renamed British Airways.

lhr380 · Fri Sep 09, 2011 2:51 pm

Quoting AA787 (Reply 7):
The Irish government would never let their airline be renamed British Airways.

Got to agree there as well. Better to keep the name and merge it under the IAG bracket then merge it with BA and loose the history of the airline. Also keeps Ireland with a national airline

Eagleboy · Fri Sep 09, 2011 2:59 pm

I'll add to this by saying that EI is currently a profitable airline that is still in the midst of a cost saving program that aims to have ASK costs close to those of EasyJet by the end of the year. So in that sense a better bargain than poor old Bmi at the moment.

IAG may also be interested in buying EI as a defensive measure. STAR (in the guise of LH) may be interested in EI to try to increase their footprint in LHR while also directing some of the Irish originating pax away from connecting onwards with BA at LHR. BA admitted that 10% of their feed is from Ireland (However no clarification on whether this is the huge island or just the Republic.)

At the same time EI may be seen as unattractive if they don't really offer anything to another airline except a large cost to purchase in the current economic climate, as well as the spectre of having FR as a competitor on over 50% of their routes.

flythere · Fri Sep 09, 2011 3:38 pm

Seems that IAG really keen on getting its flag on the forefront of the Atlantic coast.

The saturation of LHR means that IAG may have to look to DUB and MAD for another organic growth period.

shamrock604 · Fri Sep 09, 2011 3:46 pm

Quoting VV701 (Reply 6):

This all true, little overlap of routes at all. IB have two and some periods even 3 daily flights to DUB though, but only certain months. EI are far, far bigger on Ireland- Spain with up an average of maybe 12 flights per day.

EI can still merge with BA, and keep the brand, like IB.

A good fit in my opinion, Star alliance would be also, but BA and EI know each other quite well.

lhr380 · Fri Sep 09, 2011 6:56 pm

Quoting shamrock604 (Reply 11):
but BA and EI know each other quite well.

Helps even more that WW works for IAG, he knows both BA and EI very well, having been CEO of them both

shamrock604 · Fri Sep 09, 2011 7:08 pm

Quoting lhr380 (Reply 12):

Indeed... It's all a bit too bloody cozy if you ask me!

EI does offer BA a viable mini hub in DUB for TA pax if that was it's wish (especially given a constrained LHR), and EI can offer BA eastbound pax.

It's probably as good a match as any really. It helps that the two have a long, historical relationship.

Bring it on I say!

kaitak · Fri Sep 09, 2011 7:12 pm

I think there is a lot to recommend it; as far as fleets are concerned, I think a lot can be achieved. For one thing, EI has early slots for A350s and while CM (its current CEO), has said it is taking these, he has said they are too big; it wouldn't surprise me if these slots were sold to BA (which is known to be interested in the A350), in return for some of BA's 787 slots (is the 788 really a suitable aircraft for BA?)

Another factor is that DUB can work very well as a hub for UK regional centres; BA doesn't want connection traffic through LHR from regional centres, but it would like to reduce the number of pax going via CDG, AMS, FRA etc; investment in a Dublin hub would go a long way towards achieving this. EI will be bringing in a 100 seat regional jet at some stage and this will help the expansion of the t/a network.

richardw · Fri Sep 09, 2011 7:40 pm

If IAG acquired a majority stake in EI, would that be the end of the agreements with JetBlue and United? and possible replacement with links with AA?

lhr380 · Fri Sep 09, 2011 7:59 pm

Quoting richardw (Reply 15):
If IAG acquired a majority stake in EI, would that be the end of the agreements with JetBlue and United? and possible replacement with links with AA?

AA already have a good relationship with B6, so I cant see why EI would stop if IAG took over. I could see the UA/EI thing ending though.

shamrock604 · Fri Sep 09, 2011 8:03 pm

Quoting lhr380 (Reply 16):

Agreed on both counts.

richardw · Fri Sep 09, 2011 8:06 pm

Quoting lhr380 (Reply 16):
AA already have a good relationship with B6, so I cant see why EI would stop if IAG took over

Yes. Some AA flights may interline with EI in the USA in addition to B6 flights perhaps, If IAG took over EI.

lhr380 · Fri Sep 09, 2011 8:11 pm

Quoting richardw (Reply 18):
Yes. Some AA flights may interline with EI in the USA in addition to B6 flights perhaps, If IAG took over EI.

Maybe?
It helps EI fly to the main East coast hubs for Oneworld (And B6) JFK ORD and BOS so I could see a lot of potential for EI to get their flight number on even more services maybe?

jfk777 · Sat Sep 10, 2011 12:07 am

IAG buying Aer Lingus makes lots of sense with the LHR connections to Ireland. The idea of feed UK regional cities to Ireland also makes lots of sense, this would create tons of long haul feed in DUB. IAG could turn DUB into another hub much bigger then EI has on its own with flights beyond JFK, ORD and BOS. Why has Toronto never been flown by EI ? Now it just might.

EI should have a full omni directional schedule from DUB to Sao Paulo, LAX, SFO , DFW, NRT, HKG, SIN, JNB and CPT should be on the Aer Lingus schedule. EI should have 30 long haul jets, A350-900 would be good or 787-9 even better. IT may just be time for terminal 3 in DUB even though T2 just opened.

commavia · Sat Sep 10, 2011 12:14 am

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 20):
IAG buying Aer Lingus makes lots of sense with the LHR connections to Ireland. The idea of feed UK regional cities to Ireland also makes lots of sense, this would create tons of long haul feed in DUB. IAG could turn DUB into another hub much bigger then EI has on its own with flights beyond JFK, ORD and BOS. Why has Toronto never been flown by EI ? Now it just might.

EI should have a full omni directional schedule from DUB to Sao Paulo, LAX, SFO , DFW, NRT, HKG, SIN, JNB and CPT should be on the Aer Lingus schedule. EI should have 30 long haul jets, A350-900 would be good or 787-9 even better. IT may just be time for terminal 3 in DUB even though T2 just opened.

That will never happen. DUB never could, nor never would, support a hub anywhere near the size of what you are describing.

As others have mentioned, the value of Aer Lingus to IAG would be to bolster and secure additional feed into LHR, along with additional LHR slots, and also to use DUB as a perfect hub for connecting the U.K. regions with North America. If - hypothetically - Aer Lingus were to join oneworld, I suspect the biggest growth you'd see in terms of new long haul flying out of DUB would be MIA and maybe - maybe - LAX.

I simply do not see DUB ever realistically supporting regular, nonstop scheduled flights to Brazil, Japan, Africa or anywhere in Asia besides maybe - maybe - HKG in a long, long time. Aer Lingus/IAG connections from DUB heading east could be perfectly well served over LHR, along with of course the flights to AUH (and now DXB) on competitors. That is just about all the market needs.

Remember: Ireland is a tiny country. A relatively wealthy country by global standards, yes (even after the financial collapse), and a country with huge inbound tourism, yes, but a tiny country still.

jacobin777 · Sat Sep 10, 2011 12:32 am

Quoting richardw (Reply 15):
If IAG acquired a majority stake in EI, would that be the end of the agreements with JetBlue and United? and possible replacement with links with AA?

Quoting lhr380 (Reply 19):

Maybe?
It helps EI fly to the main East coast hubs for Oneworld (And B6) JFK ORD and BOS so I could see a lot of potential for EI to get their flight number on even more services maybe?

Also, BA has looked into purchasing a stake into B6 as well (sorry I dont' have a link).

Byrdluvs747 · Sat Sep 10, 2011 12:33 am

One question arises, when mentioning the possibility of EI joining IAG. What non-DUB routes would be a good candidate for EI to contract on in a similiar way to the IAD-MAD route?

Also what percentage of EI shares are self-owned?

Quoting lhr380 (Reply 16):

Quoting richardw (Reply 15):
If IAG acquired a majority stake in EI, would that be the end of the agreements with JetBlue and United? and possible replacement with links with AA?

I severely doubt the agreement with B6 will end with and IAG purchase of EI. If anything, it brings B6 one more carrier closer to OW. From everything I read, the UA partnership was scheduled to end this year anyway.

ei2ksea · Sat Sep 10, 2011 12:41 am

I would love to think of an IAG takeover as heralding a great period of expansion for EI, however I believe its very much a strategic defensive move and not so much else (IF it occurs). I personally would prefer LH in a takeover scenario as I think DUB and EI would benefit much more in the long run than in the BA/IB -IAG mix.

I think EI's main value to IAG can be summarized as the following.

- LHR slots slots and more slots with the opportunities that brings for BA.
- Securing these slots and not letting them get into anybody else's hands, again important for BA.
- Securing the current feed by EI at LHR, again for BA.

Lesser value may be derived from what EI offers outside of LHR but these are far less compelling arguments on face value than those mentioned above;

- Catering to traffic from the UK regions to the US currently under-served by IAG (BA has been quite happy to allow this situation occur).
- Catering for low yield EU-US transfer passengers not served by BA at LHR currently (Similar to the UK regions, does IAG even care about this?).

Regardless, the next few months will be interesting if this goes further. I would expect FR to mount an aggressive new onslaught against EI as soon as any shareholding of theirs is offloaded. It wont be an easy road for any prospective buying as regards the Irish domestic market anyways.

jfk777 · Sat Sep 10, 2011 7:16 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 21):
Remember: Ireland is a tiny country. A relatively wealthy country by global standards, yes (even after the financial collapse), and a country with huge inbound tourism, yes, but a tiny country still.

Yes Ireland is small with a huge diaspera in Australia, some South Africa and North America. I have always been dissappointed thay EI is not " all that it can be". MIA, LAX and HKG, at a minimum, are cities Aer Lingus should fly to.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 22):
Also, BA has looked into purchasing a stake into B6 as well (sorry I dont' have a link).

With LH owning nearly 20% of JB, BA would buying what exactly? For OneWorld the best thing is for AA to buy JB. JB has become at JFK what BMI did for years at LHR before alliances ruled the skies, code-share with everyone.

FlyCaledonian · Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:01 am

Argh! Why do so many people assume that IAG = BA?

International Airlines Group, headed by former BA CEO Willie Walsh, is the owner of both BA and IB. From what I understand this would be IAG taking over EI, so EI would become a sister company to BA and IB. There certainly wouldn't be any merger of the BA and EI brands, although IAG might see opportunities for back office synergies.

In terms of what this would mean for flights ops, the benefits of pooling slots would be the key one. Furthermore, a bit like with BA/IB, I wouldn't be surprised to see BA take on BFS and ORK flying, leaving EI to concentrate on DUB (its hub), just like BA took on all BCN flying from LHR. I wonder if SNN would really stay at LHR, or move to LGW (if it stayed at all)?

lhr380 · Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:05 am

Quoting FlyCaledonian (Reply 26):
I wouldn't be surprised to see BA take on BFS and ORK flying, leaving EI to concentrate on DUB

Slots would come from EI of course, but where would the aircraft come from?

vhtje · Sat Sep 10, 2011 11:09 am

Quoting FlyCaledonian (Reply 26):
Argh! Why do so many people assume that IAG = BA?

For the same reason people think AF/KLM = AF

Back on topic: how soon would any movement on this likely be? Are we talking days or weeks?

kaitak · Sat Sep 10, 2011 11:46 am

Quoting vhtje (Reply 28):
Back on topic: how soon would any movement on this likely be? Are we talking days or weeks?

The Irish govt has said that any share sale would not come until 2012, so we'll be waiting quite a while.

Also, bear in mind that it's not just the Irish govt we need to worry about; a lot of the decision on who the "winner" is will be down to FR and who they will want to sell to. They hold 30% of the stock and will want to exact some price for their sale, quite apart from the actual price.

Quoting EI2KSEA (Reply 24):
I would love to think of an IAG takeover as heralding a great period of expansion for EI, however I believe its very much a strategic defensive move and not so much else (IF it occurs). I personally would prefer LH in a takeover scenario as I think DUB and EI would benefit much more in the long run than in the BA/IB -IAG mix.

I think EI's main value to IAG can be summarized as the following.

- LHR slots slots and more slots with the opportunities that brings for BA.
- Securing these slots and not letting them get into anybody else's hands, again important for BA.
- Securing the current feed by EI at LHR, again for BA.

Unfortunately, I see a lot of truth in what you say; I would tend to prefer LH, but everyone wants LH to buy their airline and the Portuguese have come out and said this. Sure, Ireland is in a better economic position that Portugal (though not by much), but TAP has a big Brazilian market and since Brazil is likely to become a very much more important economy in years to come, this may have a big impact on LH's strategic decision making.

commavia · Sat Sep 10, 2011 1:09 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 25):
I have always been dissappointed thay EI is not " all that it can be".

But that's the thing - it really is about "all that it can be." Ireland is a tiny country - the market is not nearly large enough to support much larger of an airline. The diaspora that exists outside of Ireland, regardless of how much incremental traffic it generates to/from Ireland itself, is unlikely to be sufficient to support any substantial level of regular scheduled longhaul air service - with the notable exception of North America, which definitely does have sufficient levels of local traffic (tourism, business, VFR) to support substantial capacity. Outside of that, everything else would likely not be economic.

Quoting FlyCaledonian (Reply 26):
Argh! Why do so many people assume that IAG = BA?

International Airlines Group, headed by former BA CEO Willie Walsh, is the owner of both BA and IB. From what I understand this would be IAG taking over EI, so EI would become a sister company to BA and IB. There certainly wouldn't be any merger of the BA and EI brands, although IAG might see opportunities for back office synergies.

Nobody is suggesting that BA is going to 'take over' Aer Lingus and the brand will disappear - but the reason everyone is focusing more on BA here as opposed to IAG is because the crux of the entire synergy for this merger would center around Heathrow - i.e., BA.

Quoting FlyCaledonian (Reply 26):
I wonder if SNN would really stay at LHR, or move to LGW (if it stayed at all)?

Judging by the Irish government's public insistence in the last few years (I seem to remember) about maintaining the SNN-LHR link, I could imagine that the Irish government would once again stipulate such a condition in this deal. I think it's reasonable to expect the Irish government to stipulate that an IAG-controlled Aer Lingus would be required to maintain nonstop service from LHR to all of the Irish cities that currently see nonstop service (DUB/SNN/ORK/BFS), with at least X number of daily departures on each specific route.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 29):
Also, bear in mind that it's not just the Irish govt we need to worry about; a lot of the decision on who the "winner" is will be down to FR and who they will want to sell to. They hold 30% of the stock and will want to exact some price for their sale, quite apart from the actual price.

Well the news report cited at the top seems to imply that - or the right price, of course - Ryanair doesn't appear to be a roadblock standing in the way of this.

speedbird9 · Sat Sep 10, 2011 8:49 pm

Quoting vhtje (Reply 28):
Quoting FlyCaledonian (Reply 26):
Argh! Why do so many people assume that IAG = BA?

For the same reason people think AF/KLM = AF

I suppose its because its currently run by a former BA boss or perhaps because the majority of posts who make the mistake are British(UK) or American or those who are the largest taget audience for BA and see a lot of advertising and just generally

But anyway heres my question do we think this would be an acquisitions i.e buying out the stocks of EI
or a where by a share swap occurs?

LHRFlyer · Sat Sep 10, 2011 9:41 pm

Quoting speedbird9 (Reply 31):
But anyway heres my question do we think this would be an acquisitions i.e buying out the stocks of EI
or a where by a share swap occurs?

I think it would be largely or wholly a cash deal rather than a share swap.

The Irish Government would want the cash to pay down debt and IAG would probably rather not have Governments as shareholders.

IAG is probably prepared to make an offer in cash. It currently has the lowest net debt of the three major European airline groups.

Eagleboy · Sat Sep 10, 2011 9:58 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 30):
Well the news report cited at the top seems to imply that - or the right price, of course - Ryanair doesn't appear to be a roadblock standing in the way of this.

FR will want to maximise their profit in this matter, but at the same time I am sure they will be canny enough to weight up what any prospective buyer will do with EI. Afterall they would not want a revitalised EI fighting back on shorthaul.
(In recent times FR made a huge public deal over trying to get EI to hand back a strategic location in DUB as they knew this location was integral to EI cost saving plans)

Quoting vhtje (Reply 28):
Back on topic: how soon would any movement on this likely be? Are we talking days or weeks?

Months

Quoting EI2KSEA (Reply 24):
I would love to think of an IAG takeover as heralding a great period of expansion for EI, however I believe its very much a strategic defensive move and not so much else

Agreed

Quoting EI2KSEA (Reply 24):
I personally would prefer LH in a takeover scenario as I think DUB and EI would benefit much more in the long run than in the BA/IB -IAG mix.

I too think an LH group takeover may try to use EI to drain pax feed from BA in LGW/LHR or even use some LHR slots to strengthen their presence there.
As already stated UK regional pax going to the US already have to travel to LHR, so why not go to DUB instead?

AmricanShamrok · Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:04 pm

Quoting FlyCaledonian (Reply 26):
I wonder if SNN would really stay at LHR, or move to LGW (if it stayed at all)?

SNN-LHR is an important link for both EI and BA. Up to a few years ago there were 4 daily rotations on the route and it feeds the BA network well, just like ORK, DUB and BFS.

shamrock604 · Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:06 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 30):

The Shannon route is a busy and succesful one. The only reason it was axed before was to use the slots for a BFS service to support the opening of a base there. When EI got more slots, SNN came back. The government made their feelings known that they wanted the route back, but of course they cant force Aerlingus to do anything. They may seek to influence with their shareholding, but that's about all they can do.

I agree with other posters that EI will never support a huge long haul network, unless our population somehow doubles overnight (it is growing very fast - but not that fast!). It can support possibly CPT or BKK when the economy
recovers substantially, but the US market will always be king.

jfk777 · Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:11 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 30):
But that's the thing - it really is about "all that it can be." Ireland is a tiny country - the market is not nearly large enough to support much larger of an airline.

Europe is a continent full of small rich countries whose airlines fly to Asia, South Africa, Brazil and east and west coast of the USA. KLM or SWISS anyone ? Ireland has the geographoic advanatge of being west of teh UK so people don't backtrack to connect. Part of EI problem have been the past policy of Shannon stopovers and lack of sufficiently long runways in Dublin. There have to be nearly 200 million people 90 minutes flying time from Dublin in Europe which could feed long haul in DUB. While EI is " all that it be" its NOT " all that it could be".

Atleast do what Virgin Australia is doing and do a deal with a Middle East airline like Etihad or Qatar Air by flying from Dublin to Qatar or Abu Dhabi. This would give EI passengers th whole East part of teh world in Asia and Australia.

shamrock604 · Sat Sep 10, 2011 11:07 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 36):

That geographic advantage only applies to EU/US traffic. It's not going help EU/Asia or Africa.

eurowings · Sat Sep 10, 2011 11:15 pm

Dublin is a well-placed transit airport in geographical terms for flights from much of Europe (especially the UK) to the US/Canada. Perhaps that should be more of a focus for EI, with regards to their marketing e.t.c? Could IAG assist with that? After all they do have quite a comprehensive European network and a shiny, modern terminal at DUB.

[Edited 2011-09-10 16:16:31]

shamrock604 · Sun Sep 11, 2011 12:08 am

Quoting EuroWings (Reply 38):

They are doing that now with Aerlingus Regional from the UK. It has been succesful so far, but needs to be expanded to support transatlantic route growth.

jfk777 · Sun Sep 11, 2011 12:31 am

Quoting shamrock604 (Reply 37):
That geographic advantage only applies to EU/US traffic. It's not going help EU/Asia or Africa.

Really, I thought it applied to only people going from Glasgow to Caracas. If you are going to make a statement like that know your geography, please. Why couldn't a person going from Glasgow to Hong Kong connect over DUB? Why Not? Cathay or EI could do DUB to HKG or via Qatar, what a concept connection fom Ireland to Asia.

IAG needs to do something to capture the regional UK traffic it does not want at LHR, Madrid is too far south for that. IB has no Asia service anyways. DUB solves this problem very neatly for IAG. SO much of the regional UK traffic goes to AMS, FRA and CDG, it really is sad for IAG to let that happen.

HELyes · Sun Sep 11, 2011 12:51 am

Quoting shamrock604 (Reply 37):

That geographic advantage only applies to EU/US traffic. It's not going help EU/Asia or Africa.

Add AY and vola, a large part of Asia gets covered. I wouldn't be surprised if both EI and AY join IAG.

shamrock604 · Sun Sep 11, 2011 10:45 am

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 40):

Get off your high horse please. I know my bloody geography, I don't need lectures from you on the subject!

Look, I admire the passion to see DUB and EI become bigger and more successful. But one has to be realistic. We will not become the next Schiphol. But we are already at 20 million pax, so are already in the mid to upper echelons of Euro airports, which is some achievement for such a small nation. And, we can get bigger, by capitalising on two advantages - location, and CBP.

For a hub to work, it needs a strong origin and destination market. Transfers alone won't cut it. Ireland has a large O&D Market with the US. It has a good level of demand to Asia, but not one that can sustain several direct routes, and the likely volume of transfers, which would probably be from the Northern Part of the UK only, would be insufficient to fill them.

CPT I Believe has a future as a route from Dublin, and a significant port in Asia. Beyond that, is being too optimistic.

[Edited 2011-09-11 04:39:34]

Eagleboy · Sun Sep 11, 2011 11:03 am

Quoting shamrock604 (Reply 37):
That geographic advantage only applies to EU/US traffic. It's not going help EU/Asia or Africa.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 40):
...If you are going to make a statement like that know your geography....Why couldn't a person going from Glasgow to Hong Kong connect over DUB? Why Not? Cathay or EI could do DUB to HKG or via Qatar, what a concept connection fom Ireland to Asia.

At present EI say that 34% of their T/A load are transfers. With their strong Euro network they can offer convenient connections for pax from Spain/France/Germany/Netherlands/Italy/Poland etc. However this market may not be as strong if these pax have to connect at DUB to go to Asia/Africa. A major selling point of connecting at DUB is the US CBP preclearance. This political incentive does not apply to Asia/Africa.

Now of course if the price is right then these markets could be tempted. But It could be difficult for EI on thier own to start a route to Asia relying only on the Irish and UK regional market.

And in relation to going GLA-DUB-HKG, it would have to be very price competitive to vie with GLA-LHR-HKG. The LHR option offering more choice of carrier and/or timings. That doesn't even take into account options such as GLA-FRA-HKG or GLA-AMS-HKG.
And going GLA-DUB-DOH-HKG seems even more out of the way. What a 'concept'!

I think any dreams of Eastwards expansion out of DUB by EI (under any takeover option) are currently pipedreams.
The recent announcement of DUB-DXB by EK has killed off their chance (little as it was with EY already well established on DUB-AUH)

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 40):
Why couldn't a person going from Glasgow to Hong Kong connect over DUB? Why Not? Cathay or EI could do DUB to HKG or via Qatar, what a concept connection fom Ireland to Asia.

jfk777 · Sun Sep 11, 2011 1:11 pm

Aer Lingus could also be purchased by Virgin Atlantic for feed into its LHR intercontinental network. SRB would love to add EI's slots to his.

shamrock604 · Sun Sep 11, 2011 2:20 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 44):

Another rumour in the Irish press today is Easyjet...... I think I'd prefer BA, thanks! Not that there is anything wrong with Easyjet, but there's more long haul scope for EI in a BA merger I would think.

eurowings · Sun Sep 11, 2011 2:27 pm

Quoting shamrock604 (Reply 45):
Another rumour in the Irish press today is Easyjet...... I think I'd prefer BA, thanks! Not that there is anything wrong with Easyjet, but there's more long haul scope for EI in a BA merger I would think.

easyJet does seem like an odd suggestion, what would they gain through buying EI? I hardly think they are interested in transatlantic services! Although, I could be wrong

shamrock604 · Sun Sep 11, 2011 2:55 pm

Quoting EuroWings (Reply 46):

The main thrust of the article was that they would do it to basically piss Ryanair off. Pretty lame reason to take an airline with a totally different corporate culture over if you ask me!

LHRFlyer · Sun Sep 11, 2011 3:49 pm

Quoting shamrock604 (Reply 45):
Quoting jfk777 (Reply 44):

Another rumour in the Irish press today is Easyjet...... I think I'd prefer BA, thanks! Not that there is anything wrong with Easyjet, but there's more long haul scope for EI in a BA merger I would think.

Stelios would not let this happen. He's been very vocal of late that easyJet should focus on profitability not growth and should curb its expansion plans.

vv701 · Mon Sep 12, 2011 3:12 pm

Quoting lhr380 (Reply 27):
Slots would come from EI of course, but where would the aircraft come from?

BA has one 320 from its last order left to be delivered (next January). It has also been announced that IB have firmed up five Airbus single-aisle aircraft options and will sell the aircraft to BA. Additionally BA have their own options on 30 such aircraft.

As BA have recently - last 12 months - upgraded the cabins of all of their 734 fleet and have also retired all of their remaining 752s and their original 320s, the more appropriate question might be what BA will do with the six additional short haul aircraft on order.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 44):
SRB would love to add EI's slots to his.

There is little real evidence to support this view. In recent years VS have been disposing of LHR slots. According to the reports on the Airport Coordination Ltd web site the number of VS Summer Season LHR weekly slots peaked at 326 in 2008 and have since been reduced downh to 288 in the current season.

What one has to remermber about SRB is that his skills as a publisist are exceedeed only by his skills as a business man. He is not hidebound by shareholders that expect VS to make all its money carrying passengers. If he can make more money by selling or leasing out LHR slots than using them, then that is exactly what he will do.

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