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AUSisAWESOME
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sat Sep 10, 2011 4:13 am

What is going to happen to AUS-BKG, BKG-PHX, etc?
Upcoming flights: :/
 
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mariner
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sat Sep 10, 2011 4:14 am

Quoting FL787 (Reply 41):
5. I knew MCI-MSP wasn't exactly stellar but I agree with Mariner that the route was worth more than the profit or loss. I guess the board was getting a little antsy...

While I think it was worth the fight, there's some subjectivity on my part in there - I hate to see those bully tactics win.

More realistically, and in these present circumstances, I accept that it is for the greater good - assuming Delta does cancel those p2p's.

If - repeat "if" - Delta does the decent thing, then it can only be a boost to MCI, which is already performing quite well for Frontier.

mariner
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ScottB
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sat Sep 10, 2011 6:06 am

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 43):
Here is the big question I have. If Republic had not bought F9, what do you think the MKE operation would have been?

If Republic had not purchased Frontier, the YX MKE hub would probably have already been shut down or sold to AirTran. Figure that Southwest would have taken Frontier and would probably be in the final states of winding down Frontier's operation at this point, so they wouldn't have been interested in AirTran. AirTran would still be fighting hard for MKE, which would most likely make MKE even more of a money pit than it is reputed to be. Without a healthier hub at DEN, the RAH board would have shut the whole thing down.

Quoting AUSisAwesome (Reply 50):
What is going to happen to AUS-BKG, BKG-PHX, etc?

With the Branson revenue guarantees, I'm sure these will be flown as planned.

Quoting mariner (Reply 51):
While I think it was worth the fight, there's some subjectivity on my part in there - I hate to see those bully tactics win.

Perhaps, but there is a long history with Frontier and NWA hubs, and that DNA has been transferred to Delta. I think we'd see a similar response to something like MCI-ATL or MCI-SLC, too. And I think that Delta's decision to end the Midwest codeshare was probably a signal that they weren't terribly happy about the Frontier-Midwest combination.

Quoting TOLtommy (Reply 49):
The ad space was likely purchased well in advance. Just because its being advertised today doesn't mean it'll actually be flown. I hope its not true, no promises at this point.

   Ads for the HP TouchPad kept running even after HP made the announcement that the product was being dropped and the existing stock was sold at fire-sale prices.

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 43):
Time is important. 12 months from now, oil might be at a manageable level to bring back some of the flights. However, I doubt we will see ERJ's much longer.

At this point, fuel at price levels low enough to make ERJ's economical would only come along with a severe recession, so the traffic still wouldn't be there at profitable fares.

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 43):
Why not fly DEN to CLE?

Because they fly DEN to CAK.

Quoting MSNfan (Reply 38):
Wow, I actually just flew F9 MSN-MKE-MSP-MKE-MSN this week. I guess apparently that was my first and last time doing that.

If your fare was under $400 round-trip, it was probably a money-loser. And wouldn't it have been faster to drive?
 
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mariner
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sat Sep 10, 2011 6:26 am

Quoting ScottB (Reply 52):
Perhaps, but there is a long history with Frontier and NWA hubs, and that DNA has been transferred to Delta. I think we'd see a similar response to something like MCI-ATL or MCI-SLC, too. And I think that Delta's decision to end the Midwest codeshare was probably a signal that they weren't terribly happy about the Frontier-Midwest combination.

Indeed, I was around for Frontier's LAX-MSP. I was around for Frontier at MEM.

And yes, I am sure we would see a reaction to the routes you suggest. I'm not sure that BB needed any signals about the code share because Delta had flat out told him.

Nevertheless - subjectively - I hate to see these bully tactics win, and I was very pleased that Frontier didn't cave in the first instance.

It has always been a concern of mine that Delta may see PVU as an intrusion on SLC.

mariner
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PlanesNTrains
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sat Sep 10, 2011 7:05 am

Quoting ridgid727 (Reply 34):
Do you think 12 months from now, F9 will even have 45 departures at MKE? Just sayin---it looks kinda bleak for MKE.

Hard to say, but I hope that this is a restructuring and not a wholesale retrenchment.

Quoting mariner (Reply 47):
I think MKE can have a clear and important place in the network, just as MCI has, but I think these moves are vitally necessary and, perhaps, a tad overdue.

It seems that they have crossed that psychological barrier - finally - and things are starting to happen. There should be a certain amount of "emotional freedom" (whatever that is LOL) in making the right decisions in some of these markets. Sort of like having a favorite bush that you keep trimming bits and pieces off of but it just never looks right or get's healthy. Finally, one day, you bite the bullet and hack the thing down. A year later it's a thriving focal point.

(I guess that was an odd analogy)

Anyhow, to quote Winston Churchill:

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."

Hopefully  

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
USPIT10L
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sat Sep 10, 2011 8:31 am

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 43):
CLE is a market that bums me out. Why not fly DEN to CLE? I think CLE has tons of potential.

Too expensive, just like PIT. I saw the figures for per-pax charges and it came out at about $11+ and change in CLE and $13+ change for PIT. Both PIT and CLE are outrageous in terms of costs. Those numbers were released internally last summer. That was the writing on the wall for me and F9. It doesn't really work for an airline to fly two or three daily flights with charges like that. Still surprised PIT is still here, sorry, I just don't see the point of 2 flights 4 days a week and 1 flight 3 days a week. I'll never understand F9's business model--I'm too rooted in frequency, frequency, frequency to accept it.
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katwspotter
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sat Sep 10, 2011 12:52 pm

Quoting USPIT10L (Reply 13):
Best guess would be MKEATW, MKECLE, MKECMH, MKEFNT, MKEBDL, MKEEWR, and MKEPIT, as they are the only non-EAS routes tied exclusively to MKE. I think RW has been trying to get out of PIT and CLE for over a year now. Why else would you cut schedules to bare-bones levels?

Tomorrow is the last day for F9 in ATW.
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jlbmedia
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sat Sep 10, 2011 3:01 pm

At what price dose fuel have to be, to make the CRJ, ERJ, etc to become cost effective?
JLB54061
 
sxf24
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sat Sep 10, 2011 3:03 pm

Quoting jlbmedia (Reply 57):

At what price dose fuel have to be, to make the CRJ, ERJ, etc to become cost effective?


Less than $40 a barrel.
 
jlbmedia
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sat Sep 10, 2011 3:24 pm

Quoting sxf24 (Reply 58):
Quoting jlbmedia (Reply 57):
At what price dose fuel have to be, to make the CRJ, ERJ, etc to become cost effective?

Less than $40 a barrel.

When was the last time that oil was $40 a barrel?
JLB54061
 
apodino
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sat Sep 10, 2011 3:55 pm

Apparently the Teamsters has reacted to the Furloughs that have come that are related to this

http://news.yahoo.com/teamsters-airl...tinues-attack-pilot-204508951.html

Normally I don't agree with half the hot air that these unions come out with, but I have to back the Union on this one. If you are asking pilots to volunteer for overtime and are constantly Jr. Manning, why would you possibly furlough? This staffing issue isn't limited to RAH either, but its an industrywide problem. There is a huge pilots shortage at the moment, the airlines just wont hire to fill it, they would rather keep the status quo.
 
Flighty
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sat Sep 10, 2011 4:02 pm

Quoting jlbmedia (Reply 57):

At what price dose fuel have to be, to make the CRJ, ERJ, etc to become cost effective?

They are still cost effective now. There are something like 1,000+ CRJ / ERJ running hard in the US industry right now. Some make tons of money, some are losers.

Chautauqua dba Frontier could not operate a 737 NG or a 787-8 on these routes either. It's just not great business. FWiW I flew a Chautauqua Frontier ERJ last week, and it was a great flight.
 
mikefrommke
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sat Sep 10, 2011 4:03 pm

Quoting jlbmedia (Reply 59):
When was the last time that oil was $40 a barrel?

More than 5 years.

These cuts, while not good for the MKE hub, could have been much worse, and I think they picked the routes that were underperforming and had little local O/D. It doesn't bode well for MKE connections, but hopefully it stems the losses in MKE enough to not have to cut it further. I think if they can last long enough to see what WN does, they'll be in a good position to either build back up or stay low. If they can find a way to be profitable, they'll be much better positioned to try new routes again.

I wonder if BB ever thinks about the Q400 removal. I still hold that it would be a great plane for the short haul MKE routes.
 
Slcpilot
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sat Sep 10, 2011 4:26 pm

Quoting apodino (Reply 60):
Normally I don't agree with half the hot air that these unions come out with, but I have to back the Union on this one. If you are asking pilots to volunteer for overtime and are constantly Jr. Manning, why would you possibly furlough? This staffing issue isn't limited to RAH either, but its an industrywide problem. There is a huge pilots shortage at the moment, the airlines just wont hire to fill it, they would rather keep the status quo.

And this is why I think BB is a poor leader. Despite the legion of F9 fans here, the labor will eventually (those that haven't already) realize that he is no friend of them. It works for a while, but eventually you get what you pay for. Another model for this would be Mesa, and their leader. It is too bad for the good people of F9. They could have had a much better buyer, even with a staple.

In the other thread I asked how many fans put their money where their mouth is and buy Republic stock. That's a true sign of faith in the company, it's business model, labor, and management. Are you still buying stock?

SLCPilot


Ps. I am often wrong, and could be here. For example, I would not have predicted the PVU success.
I don't like to be fueled by anger, I don't like to be fooled by lust...
 
GentFromAlaska
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sat Sep 10, 2011 4:30 pm

Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 36):
I think the future F9 branded ops will be 99+ seat aircraft only

From a logistical standpoint this makes total sense by not having to carry multiple fleet type and expensive spare parts. I would guess the 135/145 parts are not interchangeable.

WN figured this out eons ago time ago by flying one type of aircraft Although now they will have FL 717 unless they sell them.
Man can be taken from Alaska. Alaska can never be taken from the man.
 
n7371f
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sat Sep 10, 2011 4:33 pm

Quoting apodino (Reply 60):
Apparently the Teamsters has reacted to the Furloughs that have come that are related to this

http://news.yahoo.com/teamsters-airl...tinues-attack-pilot-204508951.html

Normally I don't agree with half the hot air that these unions come out with, but I have to back the Union on this one. If you are asking pilots to volunteer for overtime and are constantly Jr. Manning, why would you possibly furlough? This staffing issue isn't limited to RAH either, but its an industrywide problem. There is a huge pilots shortage at the moment, the airlines just wont hire to fill it, they would rather keep the status quo.

Well I don't believe anything that comes from the IAM. That's just me. Call me cynical but I've always viewed releases from folks like the IAM as nothing more than propaganda. The truth is probably somewhere in between their version and Republics.
 
n7371f
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sat Sep 10, 2011 4:37 pm

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 64):
From a logistical standpoint this makes total sense by not having to carry multiple fleet type and expensive spare parts. I would guess the 135/145 parts are not interchangeable.

The 135/145 are essentially the same aircraft.
 
FRNT787
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sat Sep 10, 2011 4:38 pm

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 64):
From a logistical standpoint this makes total sense by not having to carry multiple fleet type and expensive spare parts. I would guess the 135/145 parts are not interchangeable.

From the backside logistics point, I dont know that it changes much to be honest. The E145 spares costs I would imagine are already part of the CPA business anyway, so it wouldn't seem to change much. From an operational standpoint, it is of course cheaper to get rid of E145s for obvious CASM shortcomings.
 
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TZTriStar500
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sat Sep 10, 2011 4:47 pm

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 43):
As F9 gets more Airbus aircraft in the fleet, expansion is a possibility.

No more net Airbus are being added though until and if (BIG if) the neos start coming 5 years or the CSeries start coming in 3. In fact, it'll drop from 59 Airbus to 55 in the next 3 years as the A318s go and maybe further if the 4 A319s leaving in 2012 are not back-filled.
35 years of American Trans Air/ATA Airlines, 1973-2008. A great little airline that will not be soon forgotten.
 
apodino
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sat Sep 10, 2011 5:31 pm

Quoting n7371f (Reply 65):

Well I don't believe anything that comes from the IAM. That's just me. Call me cynical but I've always viewed releases from folks like the IAM as nothing more than propaganda. The truth is probably somewhere in between their version and Republics.

This isn't the IAM here. This is the IBT. The IAM represents mechanics and in a lot of cases rampers, but never pilots.

Quoting SLCPilot (Reply 63):

And this is why I think BB is a poor leader.

BB is known by a lot of people to be a very devout Catholic who goes to church regularly and raises his family in the faith. I am not trying to make this a religious thing, but part of the Thou Shalt Not Steal command is that you have to pay all your employees a fair and just wage. Whether or not he is doing that can be debated, but furloughing employees in the middle of a staffing shortage and playing people off of each other seems to defeat that purpose.
 
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mariner
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sat Sep 10, 2011 6:27 pm

Quoting apodino (Reply 69):
I am not trying to make this a religious thing, but part of the Thou Shalt Not Steal command is that you have to pay all your employees a fair and just wage. Whether or not he is doing that can be debated, but furloughing employees in the middle of a staffing shortage and playing people off of each other seems to defeat that purpose.

I think you are making it religious by putting your interpretation on the commandment, and - as usual - I am not sure his faith has to do with this.

But I guess the Frontier f/a's are happy with their contract or they wouldn't have ratified it last month - with some givebacks but also equity in the company:

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9PE2DF00.htm

"Frontier flight attendants ratify labor contract"

mariner
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loggat
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sat Sep 10, 2011 6:30 pm

Quoting apodino (Reply 69):
but furloughing employees in the middle of a staffing shortage and playing people off of each other seems to defeat that purpose.

He already played the same game using the same moves in 2003. The pilots voted to authorize a strike. BB came out and said that because of the pilots strike vote, financing fell through for 3 US Airways Express E145s and that we were merely signatures away from signing a deal with United. Apparently it all fell through. Pilots were furloughed out of seniority order and the company was going down (or so he would have had you believe). Lo and behold, a couple of weeks later, the 145s were financed, and guess who got a big contract to fly 170s and 145s for United? Hmmm.

"Those who don't study history are doomed to repeat it."
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mariner
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sat Sep 10, 2011 7:06 pm

Quoting loggat (Reply 71):
Apparently it all fell through. Pilots were furloughed out of seniority order and the company was going down (or so he would have had you believe).
Quoting loggat (Reply 71):
"Those who don't study history are doomed to repeat it."


Based on the published losses, I would think the airline is - or has been - in danger of going down, and Wall Street surely thinks so.

mariner
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Slcpilot
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sat Sep 10, 2011 7:10 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 70):
But I guess the Frontier f/a's are happy with their contract or they wouldn't have ratified it last month - with some givebacks but also equity in the company:

I do not agree with your logic. Sometimes people are faced with choosing the lessor of two evils. Why would anybody be "happy" with decreasing compensation? Wouldn't they be more happy being at a successful company offering wages that at the very least meet cost of living increases due to inflation?

SLCPilot
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mariner
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sat Sep 10, 2011 7:20 pm

Quoting SLCPilot (Reply 73):
Wouldn't they be more happy being at a successful company offering wages that at the very least meet cost of living increases due to inflation?

Of course, they would and that option is available. And of course it is the lesser of two evils, but the other evil is the airline going out of business and no job.

It's all very well for posters to imply that BB is bluffing but the losses are there and unsustainable - $90 million so far this year - and it is a dangerous thing to tell fibs to the SEC. Surely, Wall Street believes It, the stock price is in the toilet.

mariner

[Edited 2011-09-10 12:21:26]
aeternum nauta
 
FutureUScapt
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sat Sep 10, 2011 9:51 pm

I apologize if this has already been posted, but how many ER3/ERJs will this leave in the branded operation after these and other previously announced fleet cuts?

The F9 website currently shows 11 ERJs and 6 ER3s, so these cuts along with other previously announced cuts should leave F9 with 5 ERJs and 3 ER3s come November if the website is accurate and I am remembering everything correctly.

On a related note, does anyone know when the EAS contract ends for RHI and MBL?

Also, while I know F9 is not adverse to opening stations with only 1x daily (or less) service, I have to think this means that we will not see DEN-GRB return given that it only operates for a few months and then only 3x weekly at that.
 
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knope2001
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sat Sep 10, 2011 11:41 pm

Quoting USPIT10L (Reply 55):
Still surprised PIT is still here, sorry, I just don't see the point of 2 flights 4 days a week and 1 flight 3 days a week. I'll never understand F9's business model--I'm too rooted in frequency, frequency, frequency to accept it.

Business travel tends to be pretty focused to specific times. Here's an illustration. My business unit had a streak of new clients in Ohio in 2009/2010, and for quite a few of them my team flew in Columbus, often with 30-90 minutes of driving after landing. While I was at work today I looked back and found 97 round trips my team and I took to visit these clients in that period. Here's how those flights were distributed:

Columbus was 3x/day at this schedule:

MKE-CMH
7:45am......13 times
1:55pm......81 times
7:55pm......3 times

CMH-MKE
6:10am......0 times
10:20am.....6 times
4:55pm.....91 times

MKE-CMH by day of week
43 Sunday
22 Monday
21 Tuesday
10 Wednesday
1 Thursday
0 Friday
0 Saturday

CMH-MKE by day of week
0 Sunday
4 Monday
16 Tuesday
27 Wednesday
34 Thursday
16 Friday
0 Saturday

If Frontier cut back to one flight per day, as long as it was that PM round trip, Milwaukee-based busienss travelers like my team and I would still be served just fine. If Frontier increased MKE-CMH to 5x/day, most of our MKE-CMH would still be on departures between approximately 1-6pm, and returns mostly on departures leaving CMH in that same range. If someone else flew MKE-CMH nonstop with a significantly more frequent schedule, we might find other flight times better and fly them instead. But Frontier is the only nonstop airline in the market, and having a nonstop makes a huge difference. If the nonstop is a couple hours earlier or later than the ideal time, the alternate connecting flights are not better because of the extra time spent.

Of course not every business traveler has the exact same schedule needs as my team does -- usually we travel the day before to be at the client first thing in the morning, and with the time zone difference the 1:55pm flight worked well, typcially getting us to our hotel by around 6:00pm. Others might favor the morning flight, of course.

Our travel patterns illustrate a fundemental problem with business-heavy routes without a lot of leisure support. At keys times it's hard to get a seat, and offpeak times it's hard to fill seats. But as long as the schedule offered is at useful times, a low-frequency schedule can work just fine, especially if there are no nonstop competitors with better schedules.
 
bjorn14
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sun Sep 11, 2011 12:13 am

Quoting apodino (Reply 69):
BB is known by a lot of people to be a very devout Catholic who goes to church regularly and raises his family in the faith. I am not trying to make this a religious thing, but part of the Thou Shalt Not Steal command is that you have to pay all your employees a fair and just wage.

Hmmm.....never heard that interpretation. The Bible consistently states that you should be paid for what you labor, nothing about fairness or justice. Jesus even mentions this in Matthew 20:1–16. You agreed to the conditions of employment and if you don't like it find another job.
"I want to know the voice of God the rest is just details" --A. Einstein
 
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adamblang
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sun Sep 11, 2011 1:13 am

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 77):
The Bible consistently states ... nothing about fairness or justice.

Maybe I've gone to whackadoo Catholic churches but fairness and justice are pretty central to Catholicism.

I don't intend this to be a reflection on the preceding commentary on Republic pay and whether it's just. Rather, I'm calling out commentary on religion that's raising an eyebrow over here.
 
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knope2001
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sun Sep 11, 2011 2:39 am

Quoting FutureUScapt (Reply 75):
I apologize if this has already been posted, but how many ER3/ERJs will this leave in the branded operation after these and other previously announced fleet cuts?

The F9 website currently shows 11 ERJs and 6 ER3s, so these cuts along with other previously announced cuts should leave F9 with 5 ERJs and 3 ER3s come November if the website is accurate and I am remembering everything correctly.

I don't have the info handy, but I think there were 13 lines of RJ flying this summer, which dropped to 11 lines with the September cuts. I think that five more lines of RJ flying are going.

The MBL and IWD contracts just started in in April 2011 and run for two years.
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sun Sep 11, 2011 5:29 am

Quoting adamblang (Reply 78):
Maybe I've gone to whackadoo Catholic churches but fairness and justice are pretty central to Catholicism.

Without voicing my opinion (because I don't think we need to get into it here), I would just say that he said "The Bible consistently states...", and not what Catholic doctrine has been introduced by Pope's, etc.

Anyhow, while others disagree, I think it would be appropriate to steer clear of the whole religious side of BB. All that will come of it is disagreement and differing points of view that, in the end, will do little to add to this thread.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
Slcpilot
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sun Sep 11, 2011 12:37 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 80):
Anyhow, while others disagree, I think it would be appropriate to steer clear of the whole religious side of BB. All that will come of it is disagreement and differing points of view that, in the end, will do little to add to this thread.

Again, I disagree. It is BB that brings his views to the workplace, and has informed his employees of his views. In a previous F9 thread I posted the "abortion newsletter" obtained from the public domain that some said didn't exist. He has opened the door to this discission, and therefore it seems appropriate to this thread as well.

It seems to me that the Catholicism as taught by nuns when I was in school is largely inconsistent with capitalism. As with most things, the extremes often don't work (be it religion or unchecked greed). Is his the house of a pius person?

If BB is percieved as being unfair by his employees, they will have little motivation to "be fair" back to the company. It was mentioned he took some "salary cuts" last year. The terminology seemed to be loaded with lawyer speak. Did he really take a cut in total compensation from F9 and RAH, or just one half?

SLCPilot
I don't like to be fueled by anger, I don't like to be fooled by lust...
 
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knope2001
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sun Sep 11, 2011 1:34 pm

Here's Milwaukee peak weekday

Airbus/EJet -- 25 flights
2 BOS
3 LGA
2 PHL
3 DCA
1 MCO or SAT (by day of week)
3 DFW
1 PHX
1 LAS
6 DEN
3 MCI

RJ -- 20 flights
2 EWR
2 OMA
2 RHI
2 MBL
2 GRR
2 FNT
2 CMH
2 PIT
2 IND
2 BNA

Looks like six RJ lines, four E145 and two E135. All six RJ's overnight at an oustation, and the ERJ can be worked on in CMH and PIT (if I recall correctly). The E135 overnight in MBL and IWD, and it would appear that one line of flying sits in Milwaukee about 8 hours to have a maintnence window during the day. As such, there are not quite as many flights as six lines of RJ flying would normally produce.
 
sideflare75
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sun Sep 11, 2011 3:36 pm

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 82):
Looks like six RJ lines, four E145 and two E135.

knope the word we got was all RJs will be 145. No more 135. And you are correct, no more overnighters, with the exception of the American Connection 140. This definately cuts down on the amount of maintenace work needing to be done at night in MKE. So much for the big plans Republic had for the MKE maintenance base that they talked about only 2 years ago.
 
FreequentFlier
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sun Sep 11, 2011 4:58 pm

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 82):
RJ -- 20 flights
2 EWR
2 OMA
2 RHI
2 MBL
2 GRR
2 FNT
2 CMH
2 PIT
2 IND
2 BNA

How does F9 continue to make the MKE-BNA flight work? That one always seemed like an oddball route to me. The other stations are either EAS or fellow Midwestern cities with strong ties in terms of business and industry. But what are the ties between MKE and BNA? I don't know of any yet BNA continues to survive cut after cut.
 
FL787
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sun Sep 11, 2011 5:58 pm

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 82):

Looks like BKG sticks around too until its scheduled end in December.
 
smoot4208
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Sun Sep 11, 2011 6:11 pm

Quoting FL787 (Reply 85):
Looks like BKG sticks around too until its scheduled end in December.

Is that seasonally ending, or is that ending permanently due to the subsidy running out?
 
ScottB
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Mon Sep 12, 2011 2:16 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 70):
I guess the Frontier f/a's are happy with their contract or they wouldn't have ratified it last month - with some givebacks but also equity in the company

I'm not sure I agree with that given the context of agreeing to concessions or losing their jobs. It's as if the victim of a mugging were "happy" with having his or her wallet/purse/jewelry stolen because, well, at least the mugger didn't stab him or her.

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 82):
Here's Milwaukee peak weekday

It's very hard to get anything coherent out of the online schedules right now, so thanks for posting this. I still see E170's out of MKE into next year; are some of these remaining in the fleet after all?
 
mikefrommke
Posts: 223
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Mon Sep 12, 2011 2:28 pm

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 86):
Is that seasonally ending, or is that ending permanently due to the subsidy running out?

It was always scheduled to end in December (at least the AUS-BKG part of it was). Maybe BKG will renew the route with them for longer.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 87):
It's very hard to get anything coherent out of the online schedules right now, so thanks for posting this. I still see E170's out of MKE into next year; are some of these remaining in the fleet after all?

I know there was a small number of birds they were attempting to place. They may have decided to keep them around for awhile to upgauge some of the E145 flying.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Mon Sep 12, 2011 2:35 pm

Quoting FreequentFlier (Reply 84):
The other stations are either EAS or fellow Midwestern cities with strong ties in terms of business and industry. But what are the ties between MKE and BNA? I don't know of any yet BNA continues to survive cut after cut.

What makes you say that Pittsburgh or Columbus have more business ties to Milwaukee than Nashville?
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
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enilria
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Mon Sep 12, 2011 3:01 pm

Quoting apodino (Thread starter):
I can't say the ERJ flying surprises me if its true, but what does this mean for F9 going forward?

Talk about a prediction coming true, when he removed the E170s saying they were uneconomic it became ridiculous to still fly the E145s. This is a good decision and one that is long overdue. The only problem is that BB has said that a significant motivation for the existence of F9 is to provide a need for otherwise worthless small RJs in what he call his Asset Management Strategy. With this operation going away, it removes one of the key values of F9 to the RJET empire...

Quoting TVNWZ (Reply 2):

Also, believed that 400 Republic employess in MKE will be laid off by/in November.

I think this is going to be deeper than a handful of cities.

Quoting TZTriStar500 (Reply 8):
and suspension of MCI-MSP service.

As I have said before, they were losing their @ss flying that route up against WN/FL with E145s. They should have figured out an alternative long ago.

Quoting jlbmedia (Reply 57):

At what price dose fuel have to be, to make the CRJ, ERJ, etc to become cost effective?

I'd say $60-70.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 61):
They are still cost effective now. There are something like 1,000+ CRJ / ERJ running hard in the US industry right now. Some make tons of money, some are losers.

They are not. Those planes are there for two reasons. 1) Existing contracts do not allow them to be parked and 2) the airlines (questionably) look not only at the profitability of the routes they fly on, but borrow money from their connecting passengers to justify their existence. That model for determining profitability is dying.

Quoting mariner (Reply 72):
Quoting loggat (Reply 71):
Apparently it all fell through. Pilots were furloughed out of seniority order and the company was going down (or so he would have had you believe).
Quoting loggat (Reply 71):
"Those who don't study history are doomed to repeat it."
Based on the published losses, I would think the airline is - or has been - in danger of going down, and Wall Street surely thinks so.

That's about as negative as I've ever seen you on F9. I think going back to one hub is a huge setback. I don't think WN will relax the pressure in DEN one iota and if anything you may see a feeding frenzy as F9 gets suffocated by those competitors advocating their death. I do think there is room for F9 as an LCC, but their network is becoming unsustainable and may need a total rethink...DEN too.
 
Flighty
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Mon Sep 12, 2011 3:29 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 90):
I do think there is room for F9 as an LCC, but their network is becoming unsustainable and may need a total rethink...DEN too.

I do too, but mainly because WN and other super-majors are (illegally imo) trying to suffocate competition down to 3-4 airlines, with most city pair journeys being served by about 2 airlines, who are both good buddies. Entrenched labor would actually support this elimination of competition, as well (as is true in wireless).
 
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enilria
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Mon Sep 12, 2011 3:42 pm

Quoting Flighty (Reply 91):
I do too, but mainly because WN and other super-majors are (illegally imo) trying to suffocate competition down to 3-4 airlines, with most city pair journeys being served by about 2 airlines, who are both good buddies

I agree that is WN's strategy. They want to be the only prime market LCC (meaning they don't seem to care about Allegiant or NK flying to leisure markets). This is one of the reasons I was strongly against the FL/WN merger. It just allowed WN to pick off another LCC without even a fight. In the next 5 years WN will turn its attention toward B6 if they haven't merged with somebody by then.
 
mikefrommke
Posts: 223
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Mon Sep 12, 2011 4:28 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 90):
he only problem is that BB has said that a significant motivation for the existence of F9 is to provide a need for otherwise worthless small RJs in what he call his Asset Management Strategy. With this operation going away, it removes one of the key values of F9 to the RJET empire...

The entire strategy is to make sure RJET can stay around assuming the RJ flying they do for the majors dry up. While some of this is using F9 to have some of their existing assets fly, a profitable F9 is more important than sticking a few planes somewhere. I've stated in the past that I think there is a place for the RJs, but more so I think they need a way to keep some of the smaller markets because otherwise they will only be left with markets where WN/FL will be competitive. I really wish they'd find a way to bring the Q400 to MKE and MCI.

Quoting enilria (Reply 90):
As I have said before, they were losing their @ss flying that route up against WN/FL with E145s. They should have figured out an alternative long ago.

That route was flown by the E90. There are no E45 routes out of MCI to my knowledge.
 
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enilria
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Mon Sep 12, 2011 5:01 pm

Quoting mikefrommke (Reply 93):
The entire strategy is to make sure RJET can stay around assuming the RJ flying they do for the majors dry up.

I applaud any company with a long term strategy, but the reality is that F9 is doing very little to establish RJET as a more stable company. Wall Street would say it is doing the opposite.

Quoting mikefrommke (Reply 93):
I really wish they'd find a way to bring the Q400 to MKE and MCI.

Agreed. BB slashed the Q fleet based solely upon his dislike of props and not economics. The plane would have given F9 a strategic advantage in the days of high oil.

Quoting mikefrommke (Reply 93):
Quoting enilria (Reply 90):
As I have said before, they were losing their @ss flying that route up against WN/FL with E145s. They should have figured out an alternative long ago.

That route was flown by the E90. There are no E45 routes out of MCI to my knowledge.

Sorry, I was referring to MSP as a whole. They have been flying E145s up against WN/FL on MSP-MKE.
 
ScottB
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Mon Sep 12, 2011 5:22 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 90):
Talk about a prediction coming true, when he removed the E170s saying they were uneconomic it became ridiculous to still fly the E145s. This is a good decision and one that is long overdue. The only problem is that BB has said that a significant motivation for the existence of F9 is to provide a need for otherwise worthless small RJs in what he call his Asset Management Strategy. With this operation going away, it removes one of the key values of F9 to the RJET empire.

The way I see this is as an acknowledgement that the overall RJET business (when factoring in losses at Frontier) loses less money by parking those homeless ERJ's than it does by putting them into the branded operation. And it seems like a vindication of the view both you and I hold about the weakness of the business case for 50-seat RJ's at a supposed low-cost carrier.

Quoting mikefrommke (Reply 93):
The entire strategy is to make sure RJET can stay around assuming the RJ flying they do for the majors dry up. While some of this is using F9 to have some of their existing assets fly, a profitable F9 is more important than sticking a few planes somewhere.

The hole in the logic is that the assets get yanked out from Frontier any time RJET can find someone willing to guarantee a margin on the flying. And the underlying implication is that assets like the E170 cannot be as profitable in the Frontier network as they can by operating for Delta Connection -- so it doesn't speak well for the viability of the branded business as a whole.

Even the charter flying for Apple -- to the extent that the aircraft could have been used in scheduled, branded service -- implies that the net contribution of that capacity to the branded business would have not been as positive as flying charters. Don't get me wrong, I think it's the right decision financially -- but I don't see it as a vote of confidence in the scheduled branded network.

Quoting enilria (Reply 90):
Quoting jlbmedia (Reply 57):

At what price dose fuel have to be, to make the CRJ, ERJ, etc to become cost effective?

I'd say $60-70.

I'd say even that is too high. Independence Air imploded with fuel prices lower than that.
 
mikefrommke
Posts: 223
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2011 12:32 am

RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Mon Sep 12, 2011 6:17 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 94):
I applaud any company with a long term strategy, but the reality is that F9 is doing very little to establish RJET as a more stable company. Wall Street would say it is doing the opposite.

Currently you are very correct, and in the short term and even the medium term F9 might turn out to be flop for RJET. But if they can find a way to make F9 profitable, RJET will have a much better long term outlook than many of the other CPA fliers who will probably be forced to downsize when the contracts dry up.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 95):
The hole in the logic is that the assets get yanked out from Frontier any time RJET can find someone willing to guarantee a margin on the flying. And the underlying implication is that assets like the E170 cannot be as profitable in the Frontier network as they can by operating for Delta Connection -- so it doesn't speak well for the viability of the branded business as a whole.

Right now the branded business is not a viable business. It wouldn't have enough money to stay afloat without RJET. Why wouldn't they take guaranteed profits instead of taking risk? If F9 were profitable, they would throw every airplane they could get their hands on at it. The current reality is they need to find a way to make money with the planes they do have, or even with less planes then they have. Right now the bottom line is profitability, not expansion.
 
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mariner
Posts: 19473
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2001 7:29 am

RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Mon Sep 12, 2011 6:23 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 95):
The hole in the logic is that the assets get yanked out from Frontier any time RJET can find someone willing to guarantee a margin on the flying. And the underlying implication is that assets like the E170 cannot be as profitable in the Frontier network as they can by operating for Delta Connection -- so it doesn't speak well for the viability of the branded business as a whole.

There is undoubtedly a crisis in the branded business - you've seen the numbers - and that is what this whole restructure is about.

The ERJ operation at MKE represents about 40% of the loss in the first half of the year. Nor would the Q400 (at Frontier) be much help - it has a break-even load factor of 100% and the E170 belf is worse.

The early decisions about the sub-100 seat fleet were made in a very different environment, when oil was very much lower. No doubt there has been a reluctance to ditch the ERJ at MKE because it means what we are seeing right now - that a lot of smaller stations get dropped.

But the E190 has a lower belf, as do the Airbus and the lowest in the fleet is the A320. So:

Quoting ScottB (Reply 95):
The hole in the logic is that the assets get yanked out from Frontier any time RJET can find someone willing to guarantee a margin on the flying

I don't believe that is the case. I think the Apple opportunity was a unique opportunity of timing - two separate crises finding a common, and I think happy, solution.

Quoting enilria (Reply 90):
That's about as negative as I've ever seen you on F9.

Then either you must think I'm stupid or you haven't read all my posts.

My interest in Frontier is not based on how successful it is, but rather "HFT does it survive?" and I have posted that many, many times. I would direct you to my posts at the time of the auction. $150 million more from Southwest and Frontier would have been gone. Yet people - including you - howled me down for that.

It is how people cope with adversity that interests me and all my best writing work is about exactly that. Success bores me. I've posted that before, too.

mariner

[Edited 2011-09-12 11:26:36]
aeternum nauta
 
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enilria
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Mon Sep 12, 2011 6:28 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 95):
The way I see this is as an acknowledgement that the overall RJET business (when factoring in losses at Frontier) loses less money by parking those homeless ERJ's than it does by putting them into the branded operation.

I think it is even worse than that. I think they were considering even the crew sunk cost and still couldn't make it work. My suspicion is that somebody concluded that actually training/hiring new crews, in essence, to fly these planes was lunacy.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 95):
And it seems like a vindication of the view both you and I hold about the weakness of the business case for 50-seat RJ's at a supposed low-cost carrier.

 
Quoting ScottB (Reply 95):
And the underlying implication is that assets like the E170 cannot be as profitable in the Frontier network as they can by operating for Delta Connection -- so it doesn't speak well for the viability of the branded business as a whole.

I think BB said that verbatim.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 95):
Even the charter flying for Apple -- to the extent that the aircraft could have been used in scheduled, branded service -- implies that the net contribution of that capacity to the branded business would have not been as positive as flying charters.

True

Quoting ScottB (Reply 95):
but I don't see it as a vote of confidence in the scheduled branded network.

Well, there are also all these subsidy deals they keep taking. Most of those are simply, at best, breakeven. Generally, airports, governments, etc. don't guarantee a profit. (ICT is a notable exception.) They also usually have a cap on their assistance which means there is downside. So, basically F9 is cutting flying to take incentive routes that have no real change of making a profit, a limited chance of losing money by exceeding the loss cap, and a high likelihood of simply breaking even. That should be disturbing if done to the magnitude that F9 is chasing such deals.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 95):
I'd say even that is too high. Independence Air imploded with fuel prices lower than that.

Well, in all honesty, FLYi had both a revenue and a cost problem. They tried to build an LCC hub against an entrenched legacy using the highest cost airplane ever employed in LCC service (except maybe F9 and the E135 LOL). That was crazy from day 1. Oil would probably have needed to be -$25 for them to breakeven. They often had a -75% operating margin.

Their business plan reminded me of a South Park episode.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/niallkennedy/13047656/
 
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enilria
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RE: Chautauqua Parking All F9 ERJ's?

Mon Sep 12, 2011 6:46 pm

Quoting mikefrommke (Reply 96):
But if they can find a way to make F9 profitable, RJET will have a much better long term outlook than many of the other CPA fliers who will probably be forced to downsize when the contracts dry up.

Let me take that another direction. First, I want F9 to survive. The following speaks only to RJET's corporate strategy in owning F9:

The future of the regional industry lies not in owning airlines like F9 which is an enormous distraction from their core business, but instead in figuring out how to make money flying RJs of some size. The deal we just saw between Delta and GoJets/TransStates and the deal that is already in place between Skywest and UA in Chicago are the future model. In both cases they are not CPA, but rather are pro-rate. Back to the future. If you have a giant pile of RJs you better figure out how to make that model work. RJET has no idea how to run a major airline and that is pretty obvious. They never even replaced SM with some sort of leader. It is just withering.

If you are making billions of dollars of bread and the cost of flour goes way up, you don't start selling fish instead as an escape strategy. Your first duty is to restructure the bread business. RJET has been slow to do that while they fool around with F9.

Quoting mariner (Reply 97):
Nor would the Q400 (at Frontier) be much help - it has a break-even load factor of 100% and the E170 belf is worse.

Don't know where you get that stat, but if it is true it is only because they have a fleet of 4 planes which is @ssinine and part of why the company is losing money. If they had a decent fleet to get economies of scale it would be a perfect plane for stuff like MKE-FNT which is apparently staying.

Quoting mariner (Reply 97):
No doubt there has been a reluctance to ditch the ERJ at MKE because it means what we are seeing right now - that a lot of smaller stations get dropped.

I don't think they care an iota about those stations, I think they care about parking owned RJs. BB has been pretty clear about that being a Raison d'être for F9.

Quoting mariner (Reply 97):
But the E190 has a lower belf,

As I documented, the E190 is not a magic airplane economically. It is only slightly better than the E170 and does not gain "free" seats thanks to the larger engine and associated fuel burn. B6's plan to unload E190s and WN's move to very large 737s shows that "optimal" LCC CASM is a moving target, but it is moving North quickly.

Quoting mariner (Reply 97):
Quoting ScottB (Reply 95):
The hole in the logic is that the assets get yanked out from Frontier any time RJET can find someone willing to guarantee a margin on the flying

I don't believe that is the case. I think the Apple opportunity was a unique opportunity of timing - two separate crises finding a common, and I think happy, solution.

They have done deals with Apple before. I don't think it means anything too much, but it does mean "any port in a storm". They have no better idea for the airplanes. The costly repo to Boston worries me, though. I severely doubt Apple would pay anything toward the cost of that.

Quoting mariner (Reply 97):
It is how people cope with adversity that interests me and all my best writing work is about exactly that. Success bores me. I've posted that before, too.

You picked the right industry.

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