UAL In Talks For Up To 200 New Narrowbodies

rising · Thu Sep 22, 2011 7:26 pm

http://www.chicagotribune.com/busine...ing-airbus-20110922,0,593571.story

Talks are reportedly in early stages. Winning United is seen as the next battleground for Boeing and Airbus. Wouldn't be surprised however if Embraer and Bombardier got in on this.

mdtrunner · Thu Sep 22, 2011 7:29 pm

It should be very exciting to watch this play out. Wonder what the team behind the buy will look like for United post merger.

cosmofly · Thu Sep 22, 2011 7:43 pm

I am predicting another split like AA, therefore leverages attractive financing also from EU. The products are more or less the same so financing becomes a key.

rising · Thu Sep 22, 2011 7:57 pm

Quoting cosmofly (Reply 2):
The products are more or less the same

Indeed. United CEO Smisek recently at an investor conference stated that the scale of United allows for a mixed fleet when it comes to manufacturers. There are some parts and training savings to having only Boeing or Airbus, but the benefits far out weight the costs, when operate an airline the size of United.

He also has had nothing but nice to things to say about Airbus, saying he is looking forward to flying the A350 and called the A320/319s "very popular" with customers.

I think its safe to say United Airlines will have a mixed fleet for the foreseeable future.

tommy767 · Thu Sep 22, 2011 8:10 pm

This is a bit surprising. Aside the 735 and some of the older 757s, what airplanes are in need of replacement? I would think this is an order for long term future.

DFWHeavy · Thu Sep 22, 2011 8:12 pm

There are quite a few A320s getting up there in age as well that will be replaced in the next 5 years or so.

gigneil · Thu Sep 22, 2011 8:13 pm

Its what, 100 757s that need replacing. Also, won't kill them a bit to grow domestically in the markets they have hubs in.

NS

FriendlySkies · Thu Sep 22, 2011 8:21 pm

Quoting TOMMY767 (Reply 4):

Don't forget about the 100+ 737s PMUA retired a few years ago. You won't be seeing many more 70 seaters show up.

I'm predicting an order for the C-series. PMUA was rumored to be looking at it and it is still an excellent fit.

washingtonian · Thu Sep 22, 2011 8:41 pm

Excellent news! After the merger, there was some talk that the long-anticipated narrowbody order would not happen for a few more years. Glad it is going forward sooner rather than later.

Quoting TOMMY767 (Reply 4):
Aside the 735 and some of the older 757s, what airplanes are in need of replacement?

The early A-32X fleet aircraft and the 757s.

After United retired the 737 fleet, they had a severe narrowbody shortage. The merger worked well because (among other reasons) United had excess widebody aircraft and Continental had slack in its narrowbody aircraft. But there still a ton of routes flown by Express today that received mainline just a few years ago. So between this, natural growth, and 757/A-32X replacement, an order for 100-200 aircraft is wise.

Will be interesting to see where this goes. It seems like the current ideal line-up would be A-319NEO, A-321NEO, and 738RE...And perhaps Embraer or C-series to replace the 737-500s and provide a mainline lower-capacity aircraft.

It's interesting btw to compare this order to American. While American has to replace their 1980s-era MD-80s, United has to replace their 1990s/2000-era 757 and A-32X fleet.

gigneil · Thu Sep 22, 2011 8:56 pm

To be fair, I really don't expect many if any of the A320s to get replaced.

NS

gigneil · Thu Sep 22, 2011 8:57 pm

I'm also curious to see how fast PMUA 757s get moved from ORD and DEN and reallocated to SFO, LAX, IAD and EWR to be replaced by 737-900ERs in the middle of the country.

NS

washingtonian · Thu Sep 22, 2011 9:05 pm

Quoting gigneil (Reply 9):
To be fair, I really don't expect many if any of the A320s to get replaced.

If they are ordering 100-200, I'd say it's inevitable...

Centre · Thu Sep 22, 2011 9:08 pm

If they are going with Airbus, I put my money on the A321NEO as the main body of the order.
I see the order mainly as a mix between 738 MAX and A321NEO.

gigneil · Thu Sep 22, 2011 9:11 pm

Quoting washingtonian (Reply 11):
If they are ordering 100-200, I'd say it's inevitable...

They have LOTS of 757s, and need more lift domestically. Maybe the 1990 and 1991 frames, but I can't see many if any others.

NS

aaexecplat · Thu Sep 22, 2011 9:28 pm

Agree with many. A321NEO to replace the 757s and 738s to replace ageing A320s. 100 each. That should do the trick.

Gingersnap · Thu Sep 22, 2011 9:36 pm

Agree that we'll see A321NEO in this order. I expect the 738 MAX in there also, split pretty much down the middle as others have noted.

There appears to be a sweet spot, where the 738 MAX & A321 NEO should work well together.

[Edited 2011-09-22 14:36:43]

jadedchameleon · Thu Sep 22, 2011 9:41 pm

Any chance of UA going for some CS300 (or CS100--but that seems any less likely)? It seems to me that it would be smart to get some really fuel efficient birds to go up against WN/F9 in cost-competitive markets like Denver and Chicago, and get rid of some of the regional jet flying on routes where they are going head to head. I know they bought into frequency some years ago--but flying E145/CR2 especially, and CR7 to a lesser degree on these routes seems silly. I've seen E145 and CR7 on DEN-SJC. That's just stupid.

drerx7 · Thu Sep 22, 2011 9:52 pm

Quoting gingersnap (Reply 15):
There appears to be a sweet spot, where the 738 MAX & A321 NEO should work well together.

For paper airplanes, I agree. I wonder if any bearing CO's existing 739ER order will have any bearing on the outcome of this order...

EPA001 · Thu Sep 22, 2011 9:56 pm

Quoting washingtonian (Reply 8):
It seems like the current ideal line-up would be A-319NEO, A-321NEO, and 738RE...And perhaps Embraer or C-series to replace the 737-500s and provide a mainline lower-capacity aircraft.

That is exactly how I see it. But I would not want to bet on the numbers of how many per aircraft type. From a manufacturers PoV a three way split (Airbus, Boeing and Bombardier or Embraer) could be in the mix.

gigneil · Thu Sep 22, 2011 9:59 pm

I really think the pilot negotiations will end up requiring a serious reduction in the 70 seat flying.... at that point, CS100s or E190s may end up making an awful lot of sense.

NS

gigneil · Thu Sep 22, 2011 10:02 pm

Also, I would have said back in the days of Gordon Bethune that there's no way more 737-900ERs aren't on the way. Or 737-9s.

But in the day of Jeff Smisek - I think anything is possible.

NS

ukoverlander · Thu Sep 22, 2011 10:06 pm

Having been a Continental Frequent flyer for almost 20 years I have to say I enjoy the opportunity to fly the United A319 and A320's from the passenger standpoint. The slightly larger cabin area (compared to the 737) definitely gives a more spacious feel. It'd be great to see the A321 in the Globe livery.

Of course when it comes to new orders it'll be down to the economics but it's difficult to imagine that this won't be a split order to keeping both Airbus and Boeing competitive and in the process giving United the flexibility to go for either manufacturer across the full range of aircraft when considering future needs.

displane · Thu Sep 22, 2011 10:12 pm

When UA ordered new planes in the late 90s, it was mostly based on politics- making it look good for Europe and the US. Since the international route structure has not changed much in terms of where they fly, code share partners and the merge, it would not be surprising for a mixed order.

kgaiflyer · Thu Sep 22, 2011 10:14 pm

Quoting ukoverlander (Reply 21):
Having been a Continental Frequent flyer for almost 20 years I have to say I enjoy the opportunity to fly the United A319 and A320's from the passenger standpoint

Oddly, the CO 738s with the borrowed AS seats are some of the roomiest 737's CO has.

The total absense of IFE with those seats may be an issue for some.

gigneil · Thu Sep 22, 2011 10:15 pm

Quoting displane (Reply 22):

When UA ordered new planes in the late 90s, it was mostly based on politics- making it look good for Europe and the US.

What?

NS

sulley · Thu Sep 22, 2011 10:19 pm

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 23):

Oddly, the CO 738s with the borrowed AS seats are some of the roomiest 737's CO has.

The total absense of IFE with those seats may be an issue for some.

The FA's and I had a chat the other night from IAH-PBI... we all love the "loaner" seats and we don't want them to go away. They're actually comfortable

CALTECH · Thu Sep 22, 2011 10:28 pm

Rumor is only 13 of 96 to be saved. Cost to bring them up to a better standard with winglets, AVOD, EFB, cabin interior and other improvements just not cost effective. Probably be a phase out process over several years. Rumor is 737s.

11/11/11 is still the SOC target date.

mdtrunner · Thu Sep 22, 2011 10:30 pm

Quoting gigneil (Reply 10):
I'm also curious to see how fast PMUA 757s get moved from ORD and DEN and reallocated to SFO, LAX, IAD and EWR to be replaced by 737-900ERs in the middle of the country.

I'm very curious about this too. Did Delta integrate the fleet that quickly? Hopefully United will too, it seems some of these decisions will be very economical and better done sooner rather than later. Though they have already done a little bit of this with the 737's to DEN from ORD and 757 to CDG from IAD.

If customers like the Airbuses than no doubt some NEO's will be involved in this order. Hopefully they put an IFE in the seat as well.

seabosdca · Thu Sep 22, 2011 10:35 pm

Quoting gigneil (Reply 9):
To be fair, I really don't expect many if any of the A320s to get replaced.

Depends on the time horizon of the order.

The early 757s will be the first priority, but by the later half of this decade the first A320s will be approaching 25 years old. A 200-plane order is a bit too big to just be replacing the 757s and taking a few routes back from regional.

Quoting CALTECH (Reply 26):
Rumor is only 13 of 96 to be saved.

So only the p.s. birds. Wonder what they'll use DEN-Hawaii, especially with the conversion of the domestic 763s?

scorpy · Thu Sep 22, 2011 10:39 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 28):
So only the p.s. birds. Wonder what they'll use DEN-Hawaii, especially with the conversion of the domestic 763s?

Those 13 are probably the ETOPS aircraft they already use for Hawaii....

seabosdca · Thu Sep 22, 2011 10:43 pm

Quoting scorpy (Reply 29):
Those 13 are probably the ETOPS aircraft they already use for Hawaii....

There are 16 ETOPS and 13 p.s. (which aren't ETOPS). If they're talking about keeping 13, I assume it's the p.s., especially since they are about to overhaul the interiors of those birds.

scorpy · Thu Sep 22, 2011 10:49 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 30):
There are 16 ETOPS and 13 p.s. (which aren't ETOPS). If they're talking about keeping 13, I assume it's the p.s., especially since they are about to overhaul the interiors of those birds.

Yes, you're probably right then, I had the numbers mixed up.

I would have thought it would be a mistake to retire the 16 then. Why not just retire the basic domstic ships when they become due for heavy maintenance (assuming regular new aircraft deliveries)

As you point out, they are already pulling a lot of widebody capacity off Hawaii with the domestic 767s, which seemed to do about 3/4 of their trips to Hawaii with the rest on Hub/Hub.

gigneil · Thu Sep 22, 2011 10:50 pm

And a 737-9 or an A321neo can easily serve all of the West Coast to Hawaii, or BOS-SFO.

A 737-900ER can do it as well, just not quite as well.

NS

drerx7 · Thu Sep 22, 2011 10:52 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 28):
So only the p.s. birds. Wonder what they'll use DEN-Hawaii, especially with the conversion of the domestic 763s?

CO has been very creative with their scheduling, I'd assume DEN-Hawaii and all other Hawaii routes will continue to see 763 and 777 along with the 764, 752, more than likely the 753, and 737s. Of course the reconfig of the 763s doesn't mean they will be used internationally only - just primarily, just as is CO's international fleet does today.

gigneil · Thu Sep 22, 2011 11:01 pm

I agree with that - except maybe the 753s. They really actually do need them for hub to hub flying.

...unless they are planning to use the 763 international birds more extensively between EWR, ORD, IAH, SFO, and LAX - they may well do just that, if they can get the schedules right. The 764 Hawaii fleet is scheduled too heavily to make any runs to other hubs, but perhaps they could get a 777 here or there and certainly some 763s back and forth.

I really can't wait to see the schedule fully integrated. CO only had two and 1/2 hubs to schedule to. They have a lot more now.

NS

flyorski · Thu Sep 22, 2011 11:15 pm

Quoting displane (Reply 22):
When UA ordered new planes in the late 90s, it was mostly based on politics- making it look good for Europe and the US.

You have a link for that? Sounds to me like its a bunch of BS you pulled out of a hat. Politics have nothing to do with it.

I also expect UA to split the order. It will be interesting to see how the actual order ends up looking.

washingtonian · Thu Sep 22, 2011 11:26 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 30):
If they're talking about keeping 13, I assume it's the p.s., especially since they are about to overhaul the interiors of those birds.

That was my thought too. Do you know the age of the PS 757s?

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 28):
Wonder what they'll use DEN-Hawaii, especially with the conversion of the domestic 763s?

United, Delta, and American will sooner or later need to deal with finding a true replacement for the 757 on trans-Atlantic routes and Hawaii flights. I know the A-321-NEO can't do TATL, but can it make it to Hawaii?

So with 41 PMCO 757s sticking around for a while longer and 13 PMUA PS 757s staying too, they will still have a sizeable 757 fleet for the next decade.

seabosdca · Thu Sep 22, 2011 11:27 pm

Quoting Drerx7 (Reply 33):
more than likely the 753

DEN-Hawaii would be a significant challenge for the 753. Today, it really needs a 752 or a widebody. I don't think the A321neo or 737-9 will quite be able to swing it either.

The new narrowbodies will be more than sufficient for all the West Coast-Hawaii routes, though.

[Edited 2011-09-22 16:28:28]

gigneil · Thu Sep 22, 2011 11:37 pm

The A321neo will have no problem from Denver, and I doubt a 737-9 will either.

They're expecting at least 3700nm-ish from both. That 800nm should be enough for ETOPS reserves across a 2900nm sector, shouldn't it be? (I'm really asking)

NS

[Edited 2011-09-22 16:38:26]

scorpy · Thu Sep 22, 2011 11:46 pm

Since they already plan to refurbish the PS aircraft, I wonder if it makes sense to referb the best of the

Quoting washingtonian (Reply 36):
That was my thought too. Do you know the age of the PS 757s?

'

They range from 1989 to 1992..

PS aircraft are:

502, 505, 508, 510, 512, 517, 518, 525, 532, 554, 555, 557, 560

502 was delivered 1989, 560 in 1992....

seabosdca · Thu Sep 22, 2011 11:47 pm

Quoting gigneil (Reply 38):
They're expecting at least 3700nm-ish from both. That 800nm should be enough for ETOPS reserves across a 2900nm sector, shouldn't it be?

Two other issues with westbound DEN-Hawaii that give aircraft fits: total lack of alternates in the Pacific and one-engine-out driftdown with a full load over the Rockies. It's a challenging route.

AS occasionally has to make a OAK tech stop with its 738s -- ostensibly 3150 nm aircraft -- on the 2326 nm SEA-HNL sector. Similarly, CO ran into occasional restrictions with its 739ERs on the 2160 nm LAX-OGG route.

[Edited 2011-09-22 16:48:24]

drerx7 · Thu Sep 22, 2011 11:49 pm

Quoting gigneil (Reply 38):
The A321neo will have no problem from Denver, and I doubt a 737-9 will either.

They're expecting at least 3700nm-ish from both. That 800nm should be enough for ETOPS reserves across a 2900nm sector, shouldn't it be? (I'm really asking)

Coupled with winds, summer heat, heavy loads...I'd guess they'd keep a 767 on the route to be perfectly honest. By the time they need a replacement for 757 on routes like DEN-HNL/OGG there should be enough 787s on property to supplant birds from Europe if need be.

United1 · Thu Sep 22, 2011 11:49 pm

Quoting displane (Reply 22):
When UA ordered new planes in the late 90s, it was mostly based on politics- making it look good for Europe and the US.

Doubt it was politics...UA wanted a transcon capable aircraft capable of replacing the 727-200A. Boeing offered the 737-400 and Airbus offered the 320-200...there really wasn't much of a contest as the 737-400 isn't really capable of transcon without a heavy weight penalty. If anything UAs A320 order has been credited with convincing Boeing to develop the 737NG.

My thought is this order will probably be a race between the 321-200NEO and the 737-900MAX to replace the domestic 757-200s on the larger end of the scale and between the C-Series and EMB-190/5 to replace the 737-500s and back fill some of the routes that lost 737-300/500 service when UA retired the PMUA 737 fleet. There are plenty of 737s already on order for growth or to replace some of the older A320s in 5 or 6 years.

seabosdca · Thu Sep 22, 2011 11:51 pm

Quoting scorpy (Reply 39):
Since they already plan to refurbish the PS aircraft, I wonder if it makes sense to referb the best of the

Assuming that sentence was supposed to end with "PMUA 757s instead," I was wondering the same thing. Those p.s. aircraft are getting old. The only issue is that they have been equipped with winglets and most of the rest haven't.

scorpy · Thu Sep 22, 2011 11:56 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 43):
The only issue is that they have been equipped with winglets and most of the rest haven't.

yes, not sure what happened there.

Some of the ETOPS aircraft are much newer, and some of them already have winglets. Given they have been flying to Hawaii as well as domestic turns, their cycles should be lower than regular domestic ships. Maybe it makes sense to take them and convert them to the new PS config. Also means these aircraft could be subbed to europe if needed too.

kfitz · Fri Sep 23, 2011 12:19 am

Smisek said in a recent Q&A that there is no real suitable replacement for the intl. TATL 757s, and that that would be a cause for conversation with manufactures.

par13del · Fri Sep 23, 2011 12:26 am

One thing not mentioned is how fast UA would like new a/c delivered, the contract with Boeing is also supposed to include slots. In a split order scenario they can use their contract to get early deliveries to spped theretirement of older a/c.
I think that's the error AA made, they backloaded the Boeing order for the MAX, may have been better to accelerate their deliveries from Boeing for current a/c, then only accept NEO's which will make up the bulk of the order anyway.
As UA/CO also have a contract, better to use it where it can be advantageous to current operations, if they do not split the order it makes no difference.

RayChuang · Fri Sep 23, 2011 12:29 am

Here's my guess: a large A320 neo order, powered by Pratt & Whitney PW1127G engines. They will eventually replace the A320-200 fleet over a decade.

gigneil · Fri Sep 23, 2011 12:30 am

Yes, United does have a fair number of 737-900ERs and options still on order. I can't help but believe they will use that to their advantage to get a large number of 737-900ERs soon.

NS

flash330 · Fri Sep 23, 2011 12:36 am

How much will only the A320neo offering pw engines play into this? Or does the new united not have such a close relationship with pratt anymore?

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