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delimit
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Fri Oct 14, 2011 5:40 pm

Quoting heebeegb (Reply 16):
Sorry, answer my own question

Lufthansa has 66pc of the slots at Frankfurt’s main airport, while Air France-KLM has 59pc at Charles de Gaulle in Paris and 57pc at Schiphol in Amsterdam.

BA with BMI would have less than all these 3 so would they have any problem getting approval?

Because LHR is far more slot-constrained than FRA and AMS. Does CDG even has a cap?
 
n9801f
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Fri Oct 14, 2011 5:54 pm

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 37):
The verb "to table" has opposite meanings in the US and the UK. Just to confirm, the OP means that IAG has offered a proposal, subject to further definition, to acquire BMI?


        

You beat me to it!

American readers will comprehend this post far better if the headline is modified to say "submits" instead of "tables".

In any case, it's very exciting news.
 
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eurowings
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Fri Oct 14, 2011 6:26 pm

The key aspect for me is what will happen to bmi Regional, which is apparently the strongest performing division within bmi. It operates a notable network in the UK regions with core domestic routes in addition to niche routes such as Manchester to Lyon. It has also recently been operating for mainline in and out of LHR.
"Freddie Laker may be at peace with his Maker, but he is persona non grata with IATA."- HRH Duke of Edinburgh
 
vv701
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Fri Oct 14, 2011 6:41 pm

Quoting Delimit (Reply 52):
Because LHR is far more slot-constrained than FRA and AMS. Does CDG even has a cap?

Is there any argument that BA should be penalised for buying BD in a way that LH was not penalised for buying LX, OS and SN simply because their home hub airport is more severely slot restrained? LH clearly already had a greater proportion of FRA slots than BA can even dream of operating at LHR.

IAG and LH are operating in a free market. If other airlines want BD's slots all they need to do is table a better offer to LH than that made by IAG.

BA have 6 daily LHR-BRU flights, 3 daily LHR-BSL flights, 6 daily LHR-DUS flights, 8 daily LHR-FRA flights, 8 daily LHR-GVA flights, 4 daily LHR-HAM flights, 7 daily LHR-MUC flights, 2 daily LHR-STR flights, 6 daily LHR-TXL flights, 4 daily LHR-VIE flights and 4 daily LHR-ZRH flights. These flights, all 58 of them, are flown in face to face competition with Lufthansa Group airlines. Yet despite this LH has already sold six former BD LHR daily slot pairs to BA.

It is more than clear that LH already have or would meet the LHR slot needs of all of their Group airlines and their Star Alliance partners. And if they were willing to sell 6 daily slot pairs to BA, I am totally sure that LH would be prepared to sell BD LHR slots to any Sky Team members or non-alliance airlines as, unlike BA none of them are in direct competition with Lufthansa Group airlines out of LHR.

So why are these other airlines not beating a path to LH's door? Perhaps they are. Perhaps we will soon see announcements of further BD slot sales . But in this totally free market punishing BA for aspiring to operate more flights out of LHR using slots that other airlines are not prepared to buy in a free market is clearly flying in the face of commercial reality.
 
SKAirbus
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Fri Oct 14, 2011 6:44 pm

Quoting EuroWings (Reply 54):
The key aspect for me is what will happen to bmi Regional, which is apparently the strongest performing division within bmi. It operates a notable network in the UK regions with core domestic routes in addition to niche routes such as Manchester to Lyon. It has also recently been operating for mainline in and out of LHR.

I wouldn't worry too much. If it is making money, then BA would be stupid not to exploit it. If they don't keep the ERJ145s they may want to base some ERJ170s/190s at LHR and MAN to operate regional routes.

The reason BA withdrew from other UK destinations before was because it was not economical. Not because they had this desire to become a London only airline. Good businesses will always go where they can make money.
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bennett123
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Fri Oct 14, 2011 6:52 pm

I know that there are some glad to BMI.

However, my limited experience of them is generally good.

I flew with BMI to Amsterdam quite uneventfully. I also flew with them to Brussels, then outbound flight was again uneventful. on the return, the plane went tech. so they switched everyone to Virgin Express. We got back to LGW one hour late. IMO on a Sunday evening that was not bad going.

I have flown with Baby to Amsterdam and Madrid. Again no issues.

If this goes through, then jobs will be lost. Hopefully some of these people will find slots with BA.
 
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eurowings
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Fri Oct 14, 2011 6:57 pm

Quoting SKAirbus (Reply 56):
The reason BA withdrew from other UK destinations before was because it was not economical. Not because they had this desire to become a London only airline. Good businesses will always go where they can make money.

Yes, but the regional operations of bmi are indeed on a small scale. I do have my doubts as to whether BA would be interested in these bases and routes, even if they are not currently loss-making (I don't know the figures). The larger E-jets may well provide too much capacity for some routes.

[Edited 2011-10-14 11:58:45]
"Freddie Laker may be at peace with his Maker, but he is persona non grata with IATA."- HRH Duke of Edinburgh
 
sam1987
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Fri Oct 14, 2011 7:01 pm

Quoting SKAirbus (Reply 35):
I cannot imagine that IAG will want to keep two seperate brands at LHR.

Perhaps they'll move one of the brands to LGW?

Even if they don't move the brand, they should certainly use the BD Airbuses to replace BA's LGW 737s.
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VictorKilo
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Fri Oct 14, 2011 7:08 pm

Quoting VV701 (Reply 55):
It is more than clear that LH already have or would meet the LHR slot needs of all of their Group airlines and their Star Alliance partners.

Perhaps continuing to serve their Group airlines and Star Alliance partners will mean that LH will retain the 10 daily slots currently used for TXL, BSL, and VIE flights served by BMI, and possibly the two slots for BGO and SVG will go to SAS, and maybe the three slots used for Regional service to HAJ, and if we're stretching it the six slots Lufthansa Italia has for LHR-MXP.

The remaining rump airline would be 22 flights to locations in the British Isles, 8 ex-BMED, 2 to Moscow, and 2 widebody flights. And I don't see why anyone other than IAG could use all 34 LHR slots.
 
AIR MALTA
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Fri Oct 14, 2011 7:37 pm

Quoting VictorKilo (Reply 58):
The remaining rump airline would be 22 flights to locations in the British Isles, 8 ex-BMED, 2 to Moscow, and 2 widebody flights. And I don't see why anyone other than IAG could use all 34 LHR slots.

If ever BA gets the deal, I do not see why BA should give up some slots. They only overlap on 4 routes, EDI, ABZ, MAN and DME. If BD can not make those routes work, I don't think VS would manage to do that.

Ultimately, the best for BD, BA and the London Region is to have a stronger BA.
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steve6666
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Fri Oct 14, 2011 7:41 pm

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 27):
Quoting joelyboy911 (Reply 18):
Considering that BA and BD serve similar markets, and so do IB and TP, it seems odd to me that IAG doesn't look to new geographic areas.

I would disagree with you, all of the mentioned airlines add something to the IAG group.

Agree with Brian. This deal can be summed up in three words.

Synergy.
Synergy.
And synergy.

The BA/IB synergies were pretty huge - although I am not sure if the report was released publicly. Imagine what the cost synergies will be like for two airlines operating (some of) the same routes from the same airport, never mind revenue synergies.
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vv701
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Fri Oct 14, 2011 7:56 pm

Since LH bought BD up until the start of the current Summer Season BD's slot holding had declined from 1,180 to 800 LHR weekly slots.

The big gainers have been:

LH from 406 to 528
LX from 84 to 168
SN from 0 to 50

OS has seen a decline from 70 to 42.

Amongst Star Alliance airlines there have been no significant gainers apart from CO who grew their slot holding from 84 to 98 but not with the help of LH.

Some others, including UA, down from 154 to 140 (with the withdrawal of their JFK-LHR flight) and SQ (down from 48 to 46) show slight declines.

Source for the above data are the "start of season" LHR weekly slot figures for Summer Season 2009 and Summer Season 2011 published on the Airport Coordination Ltd web site.

I am guessing that BD probably have about 700 weekly slots left today. Only two airlines could have any interest in this many slots particularly if you look at the figures for OS, SQ and UA. These are BA and VS.

VS's real interest could be marginal. Over the two year period detailed above the number of slots operated by them declined from 324 to 288 per week. So we can see that despite any rhetoric to the contrary VS have been reducing their LHR operation and could suffer severe indigestion if they now suddenly expanded their LHR operations from the current level of around 300 weekly slots to about 1,000.

VS could also run into labour problems if they bought BD. The incoming BD cabin staff may be significantly better paid than the existing VS staff. The CAA web site reports that in 2010 VS "expenditure per head" for "cabin attendents" was £13,300 while the equivalent BD figure was 45 per cent higher at £19,300.
 
bennett123
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Fri Oct 14, 2011 8:14 pm

Given that these figures will doubtless include employers as well as employees NI, and possibly the "cost" of annual holidays, the VS staff are hardly well paid.

Also these figures will be mean averages.
 
LHRFlyer
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Fri Oct 14, 2011 9:09 pm

According to the Financial Times Virgin has held talks with Etihad about possible bids but a joint bid has not been submitted. The deadline for bids was last Friday it seems.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bc728250-f67a-11e0-9381-00144feab49a.html

Quote:
Virgin Atlantic has held talks with Etihad, the fast growing Middle Eastern airline, on a possible partnership should the UK carrier bid for BMI, Lufthansa’s lossmaking subsidiary.

Virgin is expected to make an offer but would do so alone. Bids for BMI were due in last Friday, said one person close to the situation.

Its possible collaboration with Abu Dhabi-based Etihad over the BMI assets underscores how International Airlines Group faces strong competition for the carrier, which holds a valuable swathe of take-off and landing slots at Heathrow Airport.

IAG, the holding company of British Airways and Spain’s Iberia, this week put forward a preliminary offer for BMI, which has been the subject of a strategic review by Lufthansa. The British flag-carrier is eager to lay its hands on BMI’s Heathrow slots, which are second only to its own in number.

With the airport running at full-capacity, both BA’s and Virgin’s opportunities for growth hinge on buying slots off other airlines.

Etihad, meanwhile, is interested in the possibility of tapping BMI’s short- and medium-haul network for its own long-haul routes, say two people familiar with the situation.
 
bastew
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Fri Oct 14, 2011 10:37 pm

It will be difficult to gauge the public perception of this one.

On the one hand you'll have BA (who the brits love to hate) being descriped as a dominant player wanting to increase its dominance.

On the other hand, if the EY/VS tie up reported in the FT is correct, you will also have the perception of a piece of UK aviation brought out by wealthy foreign investors.

Will be interesting.
 
jacobin777
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sat Oct 15, 2011 12:12 am

Quoting bastew (Reply 64):
On the one hand you'll have BA (who the brits love to hate) .

Yet still fly in droves..    
"Up the Irons!"
 
Gemuser
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sat Oct 15, 2011 2:57 am

Quoting n9801f (Reply 51):
Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 37):
The verb "to table" has opposite meanings in the US and the UK. Just to confirm, the OP means that IAG has offered a proposal, subject to further definition, to acquire BMI?

You beat me to it!

American readers will comprehend this post far better if the headline is modified to say "submits" instead of "tables".

??? So what does to table something mean in USA?

There's a LOT of posts that would be a lot more comprehensible to many, many people if Americans didn't use expressions unique to their country. My pet peeve is the use of their domestic time zone names, which are meaningless internationally, rather than the international standard UTC time zone numbers, on an INTERNATIONAL forum. Other people have their own pet peeves.

Gemuser
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MillwallSean
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sat Oct 15, 2011 3:46 am

Quoting VV701 (Reply 53):

Is there any argument that BA should be penalised for buying BD in a way that LH was not penalised for buying LX, OS and SN simply because their home hub airport is more severely slot restrained? LH clearly already had a greater proportion of FRA slots than BA can even dream of operating at LHR.

IAG and LH are operating in a free market. If other airlines want BD's slots all they need to do is table a better offer to LH than that made by IAG.

BA have 6 daily LHR-BRU flights, 3 daily LHR-BSL flights, 6 daily LHR-DUS flights, 8 daily LHR-FRA flights, 8 daily LHR-GVA flights, 4 daily LHR-HAM flights, 7 daily LHR-MUC flights, 2 daily LHR-STR flights, 6 daily LHR-TXL flights, 4 daily LHR-VIE flights and 4 daily LHR-ZRH flights. These flights, all 58 of them, are flown in face to face competition with Lufthansa Group airlines. Yet despite this LH has already sold six former BD LHR daily slot pairs to BA.

It is more than clear that LH already have or would meet the LHR slot needs of all of their Group airlines and their Star Alliance partners. And if they were willing to sell 6 daily slot pairs to BA, I am totally sure that LH would be prepared to sell BD LHR slots to any Sky Team members or non-alliance airlines as, unlike BA none of them are in direct competition with Lufthansa Group airlines out of LHR.
Quoting AIR MALTA (Reply 59):

If ever BA gets the deal, I do not see why BA should give up some slots. They only overlap on 4 routes, EDI, ABZ, MAN and DME. If BD can not make those routes work, I don't think VS would manage to do that.

Ultimately, the best for BD, BA and the London Region is to have a stronger BA.

There is always difficulties to understand the EU system on A.net I have noticed.
So again, comparing how LH and LX came together or for that sake BA and IB makes no sense. The EU has clear rules for how they should investigate competition.

Meaning the EU look on a IAG takeover of BMI would be different and any comparison of previous LH takeovers will be like comparing apples and oranges. Read up on what and how the EU will examine when there is a possible takeover.

First it will see if increasing from the 40 odd % BA has to 50 odd % at LHR will reduce competition and thus might be bad for the citizens. The EU is said to not want more than 20-25% in an ideal market.
Lets remember that the EU has no mandate to investigate already dominant marketsituations at airports so discussing the amount of slots AF has at CDG or LH at FRA is pointless that can't be argued under current EU legislation and thus wont be part of any evidence given. The EU only has the authority to deal with new developments.

If you don't like this you are not alone, many EU politicians want this new power for the EU however the EU council don't. But if you think its unfair petition your politicians to give the EU more power and that might change...
Until then the EU can not and thus will not look into existing monopolies or shewed competition.

The EU will also look at all specific routes operated, citypairs served and see if competition is altered on them. (here I assume we will see the same situation as we have seen when LH has taken over some other European airlines. IAG will have to give up some slots if another airline wants to fly the route etc.)

As far as I can see, the matter will be if LHR is seen as an isolated market or if London as a whole including LGW, STN and Luton is seen as one market. The latter being better for a proposed takeover.

In general, IAG have reached numbers that are big enough to allow the EU to stop such a proposal, that doesn't mean they will.

I think its important to understand the EU and how its institutions work and what their mandate is. Otherwise we keep hearing the same boring mantra about the number of slots other carriers have at their hubs. Something the EU doesn't have mandates to look into and shouldnt be part of how they investigate and judge the issue.

Then we end up with Murdoch reasoning. A directive stating how a banana should be, ie no GE bananas ends up to be about look and colour in Murdochs newspapers. Ridiculous and not true, but in the eyes of the british public this deliberate lie of those newspapers is taken as gospel today.
The directive hasnt existed for a few years for that sake...
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masseybrown
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sat Oct 15, 2011 4:13 am

Quoting gemuser (Reply 66):
??? So what does to table something mean in USA?

It means to remove a matter from active consideration - to place a bill or resolution on the table for possible reconsideration at a later time, which in practice often means never.
 
Dogbreath
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sat Oct 15, 2011 8:33 am

I didn't see any comments in any posts above, but what's the consensus about the future of BMI Baby? I can't remember if they were set apart from BMI with the purchase of BMI by LH. So what do we think about the future of Baby?
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BrianDromey
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sat Oct 15, 2011 10:20 am

Quoting MillwallSean (Reply 67):
As far as I can see, the matter will be if LHR is seen as an isolated market or if London as a whole including LGW, STN and Luton is seen as one market. The latter being better for a proposed takeover.

I can see how the EU might view LHR as an isolated market, because of the revenue premium, but I don't think it should. I think they should look at the LON market as a whole, LGW, STN and LTN, LCY provide significant competiton, but cater for a slightly different market.
That being said, they also need to look at what routes will be affected. Relatively few. Only LHR-ABZ/EDI/MAN/HAJ, I think. Other routes are operated "for" other LH groups and there is so much course leasing of slots within the LH group at the minute, it is fairly difficult to tell the number of slots BD actually has. It may be that the slots already used by other LH family airlines would be the ones divested. I think BA has a good chance of gaining 800+ slots by taking over BD.
 
vv701
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sat Oct 15, 2011 1:54 pm

Quoting MillwallSean (Reply 67):
There is always difficulties to understand the EU system on A.net I have noticed.

I see YOUR problem. You start when talking of the EU by saying that

Quoting MillwallSean (Reply 67):
First it will see if increasing from the 40 odd % BA has to 50 odd % at LHR will reduce competition

You go on to say

Quoting MillwallSean (Reply 67):
In general, IAG have reached numbers that are big enough to allow the EU to stop such a proposal

and then in your confusion as to how the EU works you say

Quoting MillwallSean (Reply 67):
discussing the amount of slots AF has at CDG or LH at FRA is pointless that can't be argued under current EU legislation and thus wont be part of any evidence given.

What you are saying is that by going from around 40 per cent to around 50 per cent of LHR slots will be the starting point of any EU investigation of IAG buying BD. This is because, as you say "IAG have reached numbers that are big enough to allow the EU to stop such a proposal". But it is wrong (or "pointless") for me to talk of LH's share of FRA slots from a much higher 66 per cent when they added in the slots used there by LX, OS and SN. This is because it is outside the EU's remit to consider the number of slots held by LH at FRA even though you claim this will be the starting point of any EU investigation into IAG/BD at LHR.

All I can say is Wow! .
 
B747-4U3
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sat Oct 15, 2011 2:49 pm

Quoting MillwallSean (Reply 67):
Lets remember that the EU has no mandate to investigate already dominant marketsituations at airports so discussing the amount of slots AF has at CDG or LH at FRA is pointless that can't be argued under current EU legislation and thus wont be part of any evidence given. The EU only has the authority to deal with new developments.

I am confused to see what point you are making here. The EU has the remit to deal with new developments, however the increase in AF/KL and LH/LX/OS slots due to takeovers were just that - new developments. So it is relevant to discuss that here as all of those takeovers have been allowed. The precedent - i.e. allowing large increases in the proportion of slots owned by home carriers - has been set. What is worth discussing - and that is what is happening in this post - is how BA's situation is similar or different to those mergers/ takeovers that have already been allowed.

Quoting MillwallSean (Reply 67):
So again, comparing how LH and LX came together or for that sake BA and IB makes no sense. The EU has clear rules for how they should investigate competition.

I agree to some extent. Every situation is different so a superficial comparison is irrelevant. However we can look at how the EU has behaved in the past and under what circumstances to judge how far that would apply to the BA situation and what action the EU might take given the specific circumstances of the BA/BD case.
 
avek00
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sat Oct 15, 2011 7:26 pm

An IAG-BMI merger should proceed rather smoothly on the regulatory front -- there's no potential show-stopping antitrust element involved in such a combination.
Live life to the fullest.
 
fcogafa
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sat Oct 15, 2011 8:19 pm

Remember that it is IAG making this bid, not BAW. Consequently IBE or VLG might get some of the slots, diluting the problem....
 
planejamie
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sat Oct 15, 2011 9:40 pm

I think BA (well, IAG) is exactly what BD needs, in fact, I know for a fact that on the LHR or UK-RUH market that was previously very LH/BD dominated is facing stiff competition from BA (I know of many people who have switched back to using BA again after many years). If anything, I think BA could use BD quite well, the current flight to JED or DMM via RUH compliments the BA flight well (BA's departs LHR in the evening, whereas BD's the morning). I think BA could potentially use the two BD A330s for this route until their 787s come (or on other routes until the 787s come), obviously with a bit of an upgrade as I presume a takeover of BD would mean all the crews from BD will still be there. BA taking over BD will save them from going bankrupt later or just being ditched later by LH and will save a lot of jobs too

The only thing I won't be happy to see is if BA is once again split across 3 terminals again (though I don't think it will be as bad as it used to be pre-T5)
 
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eurowings
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sat Oct 15, 2011 9:53 pm

Quoting planejamie (Reply 75):

If IAG/BA do take over BMI, I very much doubt they will continue operating the whole of BD in its current form for any substantial length of time. I would imagine this would involve some redundancies, as BA will be looking to boost their own business rather than support a BD unit (that includes incompatible fleet such as A330s and EMB145s) as a going concern within BA.

Whoever said 'slot fodder' may well be right.

[Edited 2011-10-15 14:59:46]
"Freddie Laker may be at peace with his Maker, but he is persona non grata with IATA."- HRH Duke of Edinburgh
 
777way
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sun Oct 16, 2011 8:23 am

If VS were to get BD would they retain the brand, because VS planes with the lady decal would not be allowed in Iran and Saudi Arabia, unless the keep the BD gained fleet without it after repaint.
 
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eurowings
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sun Oct 16, 2011 8:29 am

Quoting 777way (Reply 77):
If VS were to get BD would they retain the brand, because VS planes with the lady decal would not be allowed in Iran and Saudi Arabia, unless the keep the BD gained fleet without it after repaint.

I am sure that would be a fairly minor issue for VS if it's just the 'lady decal' that would be an issue, it could be removed from the livery. However, an entire rebranding would be unlikely for VS, it's a very strong brand name in a number of markets (most obviously the UK and perhaps the US as well).
"Freddie Laker may be at peace with his Maker, but he is persona non grata with IATA."- HRH Duke of Edinburgh
 
planejamie
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sun Oct 16, 2011 10:17 am

Quoting EuroWings (Reply 76):
If IAG/BA do take over BMI, I very much doubt they will continue operating the whole of BD in its current form for any substantial length of time. I would imagine this would involve some redundancies, as BA will be looking to boost their own business rather than support a BD unit (that includes incompatible fleet such as A330s and EMB145s) as a going concern within BA.

Whoever said 'slot fodder' may well be right.

Very true! But, the A330s could run for a couple of years until BA's 787s arrive as BA will need aircraft to fill the slots they've gained. I reckon the ERJ135s will get sold, but the 145s might get run from regional airports (I hope anyway) and would be a small aircraft to try it out with. If it didn't work, they can get sold too.

The problem is, if they gain all these slots, where are the aircraft to fill them? I know a few A319/A320/A321s will come over from BD, but that will still leave a fair few slots unused
 
777way
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sun Oct 16, 2011 10:27 am

Quoting EuroWings (Reply 78):

I meant would they rebrand BD to VS or let it continue, not a new branding for VS itself.
 
by738
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sun Oct 16, 2011 10:43 am

Quoting planejamie (Reply 79):
A330s could run for a couple of years until BA's 787s arrive as BA will need aircraft to fill the slots they've gained. I reckon the ERJ135s will get sold, but the 145s might get run from regional airports

Nope, dont see any of that happening.
 
boysteve
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sun Oct 16, 2011 10:51 am

Quoting planejamie (Reply 79):
but the 145s might get run from regional airports (I hope anyway)

Remember BA CityFlyerExpress?
Remember BA Connect?

Why would BA try and run ERJ145's from the regions for a third time? It is unlikely BA could sell them to BE because they have made it clear they do not want this type of aircraft. I think IF IAG by BD then BD regional will be quickly passed onto Eastern Airwyas or Logan air maybe.
 
planejamie
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sun Oct 16, 2011 11:30 am

Quoting boysteve (Reply 82):
Why would BA try and run ERJ145's from the regions for a third time? It is unlikely BA could sell them to BE because they have made it clear they do not want this type of aircraft. I think IF IAG by BD then BD regional will be quickly passed onto Eastern Airwyas or Logan air maybe.

Fair point.

Another thing, what about gates? LHR T5 is already pretty much maxed out now, where would these extra flights fit in?
 
tcasalert
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sun Oct 16, 2011 12:40 pm

If BA were to buy BD it would be the end of aviation in the UK as we know it. Goodbye WW, goodbye domestic flights outside of LHR, goodbye Star's UK presence and goodbye to competition on shorthaul flights and reasonable prices.

The regulators would be mad to approve it. Having said that backhanders can work wonders so unfortunately we could see it happen.

[Edited 2011-10-16 05:44:42]
Next flight: Feb 2012 - BHX-CPH-BHX - SK MD87 / CRJ900
 
fcogafa
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sun Oct 16, 2011 12:54 pm

Quoting planejamie (Reply 83):
Another thing, what about gates? LHR T5 is already pretty much maxed out now, where would these extra flights fit in?

BAW would have to use T1 again. An advantage might be that they could move the T3 coaching operation flights there as well, thereby simplifying things a bit.
 
skipness1E
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sun Oct 16, 2011 1:35 pm

Whatever do you mean an end to domestic competition? Easyjet are the main domestic competition to BA not BMI. As has been stated a few times, the routes BA and BMI compete on are pretty few. As to where they will operate from, I would expect T3 alongwith the rest of the T5 overflow, there's still some leeway where BA gate from at T3.
 
lhr380
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sun Oct 16, 2011 1:36 pm

Quoting boysteve (Reply 82):
Why would BA try and run ERJ145's from the regions for a third time? It is unlikely BA could sell them to BE because they have made it clear they do not want this type of aircraft. I think IF IAG by BD then BD regional will be quickly passed onto Eastern Airwyas or Logan air maybe.

As IAG would not have as much competition on the BD domestic routes (BHX etc) it might be feasable?
(The views on this site are my own and no one elses)
 
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eurowings
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sun Oct 16, 2011 1:40 pm

Quoting boysteve (Reply 82):
Why would BA try and run ERJ145's from the regions for a third time? It is unlikely BA could sell them to BE because they have made it clear they do not want this type of aircraft. I think IF IAG by BD then BD regional will be quickly passed onto Eastern Airwyas or Logan air maybe.

I agree and for that matter I don't think BA will want BD Regional routes at all. I think the BD Regional operation is sometimes forgotten and it's one of the most interesting parts of the group. The rest of the BD network (excluding WW) is essentially BMED an some leftovers from days gone by. The Regional operation is made up of quite a few niche routes like Manchester to Lyon, Heathrow to Hannover, Edinburgh to Copenhagen, Aberdeen to Esbjerg/Groningen that I just cannot see BA CityFlyer or an equivalent operating on, despite the current Regional operation being more profitable routes in the BD group.
.
I am not convinced that BA would want to keep these routes going.I don't even think Flybe will be overly interested (I think a Dash 8 may be overkill on some of those routes!), the only candidate I can see for that would be Eastern Airways.

As for new LHR to UK regions, I can't see that either. KLM have a particularly strong presence in the UK regions (15 airports served leftover from KLM UK days) with 'shuttle' flights to AMS for connections, including airports like Humberside, Liverpool and Leeds/Bradford. I don't feel there is a place for BA in those markets.

Interesting times ahead!

[Edited 2011-10-16 06:46:53]
"Freddie Laker may be at peace with his Maker, but he is persona non grata with IATA."- HRH Duke of Edinburgh
 
fcogafa
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sun Oct 16, 2011 2:10 pm

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 86):
compete on are pretty few. As to where they will operate from, I would expect T3 alongwith the rest of the T5 overflow, there's still some leeway where BA gate from at T3.

I suppose it depends on timescales, once T2 opens and more Star airlines move there from T3 there will be extra capacity in T3 to handle extra BAW flights.
 
planejamie
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sun Oct 16, 2011 3:28 pm

Quoting EuroWings (Reply 88):
As for new LHR to UK regions, I can't see that either. KLM have a particularly strong presence in the UK regions (15 airports served leftover from KLM UK days) with 'shuttle' flights to AMS for connections, including airports like Humberside, Liverpool and Leeds/Bradford. I don't feel there is a place for BA in those markets.

Having gone through AMS, CDG, FRA, ZRH and LHR (Terminal 1 with BD and Terminal 5 with BA) my best experiences have been through LHR purely for the fact that the domestic to international transfer is far easier (no extra security check like you get from international flights) and clearing immigration at the transfer point (especially at LHR T5) is much quicker than doing it with all the other international arrivals at MAN. Even though LHR is more delay prone, I still prefer it over any of the Euro-hubs because of this. In addition, every BA flight I've been on MAN-LHR has always been full of connecting passengers both from BA and the huge list of codeshares on the route with other One World carriers.

Quoting fcogafa (Reply 89):
I suppose it depends on timescales, once T2 opens and more Star airlines move there from T3 there will be extra capacity in T3 to handle extra BAW flights.

Hopefully the plan to expand the underground Terminal 5 shuttle train to Terminal 3 will be accelerated a bit then and essentially make Terminal 5 and Terminal 3 almost like one airside (you could check in at Terminal 5 but the flight depart from Terminal 3) and then contain all the OneWorld airlines in Terminal 3 for an easy transfer to the domestic routes.

Quoting EuroWings (Reply 88):
Interesting times ahead!

Very true, I'll be interested to see what happens with this
 
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eurowings
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sun Oct 16, 2011 3:50 pm

Quoting planejamie (Reply 90):
Having gone through AMS, CDG, FRA, ZRH and LHR (Terminal 1 with BD and Terminal 5 with BA) my best experiences have been through LHR purely for the fact that the domestic to international transfer is far easier (no extra security check like you get from international flights) and clearing immigration at the transfer point (especially at LHR T5) is much quicker than doing it with all the other international arrivals at MAN. Even though LHR is more delay prone, I still prefer it over any of the Euro-hubs because of this. In addition, every BA flight I've been on MAN-LHR has always been full of connecting passengers both from BA and the huge list of codeshares on the route with other One World carriers.

The opening of Terminal 5 has improved the LHR transfer experience with BA, although essentially that isn't my point. If you look at BA's domestic routes from LHR they are only to MAN/GLA/EDI/ABZ/NCL, other destinations require a codeshare flight from another terminal (e.g. EI to BFS). There are various reasons for this.

However, KLM, for example, serve 15 airports in the UK including regional airports with flights to AMS. An example of this would be their flight from LPL, that was inaugurated just a couple of years ago. The airport and airline have undertaken research on the client base for these flights and has identified that the majority of passengers are using this to connect onwards (as expected), with destinations in China being particularly strong. These passengers have often chosen their local airport (even though MAN is less than hour away) to fly from.

Of course, there are many other factors in choosing your airline and route (loyalty, price, service e.t.c), but the apparent fact is that passengers often like to fly from their local airport is food for thought. Now, I am not saying that BA is not getting connecting passengers from the UK regions, because it most certainly is getting lots of them. However, if LHR wasn't slot restricted would they lose less passengers to the to the mainland European and Middle Eastern carriers if they could run more domestic shuttles?

[Edited 2011-10-16 09:02:33]
"Freddie Laker may be at peace with his Maker, but he is persona non grata with IATA."- HRH Duke of Edinburgh
 
skipness1E
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sun Oct 16, 2011 3:53 pm

There are no realistic plans to run the train from T5 to T3, it would mean conformance would be needed at T3 aside from the fact the volumes are stretched at current capacities alas.
 
BlueShamu330s
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sun Oct 16, 2011 3:57 pm

Quoting TCASAlert (Reply 84):
If BA were to buy BD it would be the end of aviation in the UK as we know it. Goodbye WW, goodbye domestic flights outside of LHR, goodbye Star's UK presence and goodbye to competition on shorthaul flights and reasonable prices.

The regulators would be mad to approve it. Having said that backhanders can work wonders so unfortunately we could see it happen.

What a ridiculous statement.

You have heard of EasyJet, Flybe and Eastern....haven't you? Collectively they have more domestic coverage than BA has probably ever had.

Bye bye Baby...? Hmm, maybe, maybe not, but would their demise honestly leave any UK airport route deprived and how sure are you another carrier wouldn't jump in and take over some of the routes?

Goodbye Star's UK presence? Goodbye their presence represented by a UK carrier, yes.    However, have you seen the HUGE presence Lufthansa has in the UK and all the other *A carriers also?

Goodbye to competition on shorthaul flights and reasonable prices...? Really? show me one, just ONE, route BA has recently been given a monopoly where prices have risen and I'll show you at least one where fares have stayed the same, frequency has risen and equipment has gone larger. When did you last see a wide body on a domestic? You can now !

"The regulators would be mad to approve it." That's a bold statement, but as yet, you haven't offered any evidence to back it up.

Rgds
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vv701
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sun Oct 16, 2011 5:15 pm

In looking at possible future scenarios of a BD purchase it is worth remembering that the purchase will not be by BA but by IAG. So one possible outcome (if unlikely) is that the BD brand would be retained. Also note that IAG (admittedly through BA) owns 15 per cent of BE. So another outcome could be the purchase of the other 85 per cent of BE and a merger of BE with bmi Regional (even though BE soon retired BA Connect's 145 fleet and still have a few of these aircraft parkede up at EXT awaiting disposal).

I concede that IAG are unlikely to simply buy BD and then let it continue to operate much as it is. And if IAG do purchase BD it is almost certain that some further BD LHR slots will end up being used by BA.

Quoting MillwallSean (Reply 67):
The EU will also look at all specific routes operated, citypairs served and see if competition is altered on them. (here I assume we will see the same situation as we have seen when LH has taken over some other European airlines. IAG will have to give up some slots if another airline wants to fly the route etc.)

I've tried to check out the current BD routes from LHR (which will be the only possible routes where competition is impacted~. Of course the level of competition on every route common to both BA and BD will be impacted. But I was a little surprised just how few of these there are. However the main concern will be those city pairs that will become total monopolies.

Looking first at flights from LHR BA would have a total monopoly to three domestic destinations, ABZ, EDI and MAN and one international destination, NCE. However looking at city pairs U2 operated from LGW to ABZ, EDI and NCE. That leaves just MAN. Here. of course, the vast majority of passenger do not travel withBA and BD. They travel between LON and MAN using Virgin Trains.

I do not know but I suspect that a significantly larger number of city pairs turned into total monopolies when LH bought LX, OS and SN with routings from DUS, FRA or MUC to BRU, BSL, GVA. VIE and ZRH amongst likely candidates.

But looking to the BD situation, unless I have overlooked some routes any competition concerns could be addressed by IAG being asked to make a couple of LHR daily slot pairs available to any airline wanting to use them to operate an LHR-NCE service although with the U2 flights from LGW even that might be a bit harsh
 
planejamie
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sun Oct 16, 2011 8:01 pm

Quoting EuroWings (Reply 91):
Of course, there are many other factors in choosing your airline and route (loyalty, price, service e.t.c), but the apparent fact is that passengers often like to fly from their local airport is food for thought. Now, I am not saying that BA is not getting connecting passengers from the UK regions, because it most certainly is getting lots of them. However, if LHR wasn't slot restricted would they lose less passengers to the to the mainland European and Middle Eastern carriers if they could run more domestic shuttles?

Which is where the ERJs could come in use if IAG rebranded BD Regional as something like "BA Express" or "BA Regional". They could easily fly these from LHR to more regional destinations (BLK would attract a lot of passengers) and even have them operate onwards to a European or other destination before doing the return back to LHR e.g. LHR-BLK-CDG-BLK-LHR for instance. They could easily attract 50 passengers (or less if they have Club Europe) for these routes and provided the price was low enough, people would go for them.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 92):
There are no realistic plans to run the train from T5 to T3, it would mean conformance would be needed at T3 aside from the fact the volumes are stretched at current capacities alas.

Ahh, very true there. Or, would an underground tunnel with moving walkw
 
David_itl
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sun Oct 16, 2011 8:20 pm

Quoting planejamie (Reply 95):
They could easily attract 50 passengers (or less if they have Club Europe) for these routes and provided the price was low enough, people would go for them.

BA in London wouldn't allow that. They didn't do it for their major bases in BHX and MAN - some pricks think it was a good policy for BA in London to divert passengers on routes such as those to route via LHR.
 
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eurowings
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sun Oct 16, 2011 8:34 pm

Quoting planejamie (Reply 95):
is where the ERJs could come in use if IAG rebranded BD Regional as something like "BA Express" or "BA Regional".
BA Connect? BA CityExpress? Brymon Airways? I think we've been there before many times...   
I'd love to see BA back in 'the regions' but I just can't see it happening!

Quoting david_itl (Reply 96):
BA in London wouldn't allow that. They didn't do it for their major bases in BHX and MAN - some pricks think it was a good policy for BA in London to divert passengers on routes such as those to route via LHR.

I'd be interested to see how BA loyalty was affected, I know many people on short-haul flights don't want to connect at all and have been pushed onto LCCs or Flybe because of that. We are told how BA is 'another option', but if you don't want a connection then it's not really from 'the North'.

[Edited 2011-10-16 13:38:08]
"Freddie Laker may be at peace with his Maker, but he is persona non grata with IATA."- HRH Duke of Edinburgh
 
planejamie
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sun Oct 16, 2011 8:56 pm

Quoting EuroWings (Reply 97):
I'd be interested to see how BA loyalty was affected, I know many people on short-haul flights don't want to connect at all and have been pushed onto LCCs or Flybe because of that. We are told how BA is 'another option', but if you don't want a connection then it's not really from 'the North'.

Hence why Monarch, easyJet and Jet2 are making a killing up north on short haul. Long haul, well that's a different matter and depends on where you're going. I know many people who go with Jet2 on short haul and BA on long haul. It's a shame really as I like BA's european offering (having connected through LHR to get to Rome)
 
skipness1E
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RE: IAG Tables Offer For BMI!

Sun Oct 16, 2011 8:59 pm

Jamie I have to say BLK-LHR on an ERJ to a town in Lancashire versus an A380 to foreign parts, is a no brainer of a choice! I mean come on man! BLACKPOOL???? utter and complete waste of a HEATHROW slot.

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