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DeltaMD90
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Air Travel Between USA and Cuba Post-Embargo?

Thu Oct 20, 2011 6:54 am

I'm sure it's only a matter of time before this overdue (IMO) embargo is lifted. What do you think operations to Cuba would look like (from the US)? I've always wanted to visit for some reason, and I'm sure I'll be able to one day. Can Cuba become the destination to go in the Caribbean, or will it just be "another island in the Caribbean"? Is HAV the only airport that would sustain operations or is there a few more US carriers might fly to? Try to stay off heated politics, please, start a non-av thread for that  
 
NBGSkyGod
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Air Travel Between USA and Cuba Post-Embargo?

Thu Oct 20, 2011 8:53 am

IMHO, Cuba will become THE destination in the Caribbean without a doubt. Its close proximity to the US Mainland forbidden nature, will make it a prime US tourist destination for a while. I would see the need either for HAV to expand greatly to handle the sudden increase in demand. However, I also see the demand eventually leveling off after the initial few years, since much of the world already knows about Cuba.
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Flyglobal
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Air Travel Between USA and Cuba Post-Embargo?

Thu Oct 20, 2011 9:12 am

Probably for US citicens CUBA will become The' destination for some time as soon as the embargo is lifted.

We as Europeans are not Embargo affected and for us Cuba is another Careebean destination - just a bit special especially to have some highlights e.g to drive in some 50's type old US cars (Cheviys, Fords etc.)

regards

Flyglobal
 
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Thu Oct 20, 2011 9:49 am

this is all my personal speculation and dependent upon the slot situation, but a few of years down the line, i could see it looking something like this:

AA:
MIA-HAV
6-10x ATR, or 3-4x 738s
MIA-Camaguay, Holguin, Santiago, Varadero
2-3x ATR to each
probably also service to some of the smaller cities as well, i don't know them well enough to list which they may be however.
TPA- HAV
4-6x ATR or 1-2 daily 738
TPA- Santiago
2x ATR
MCO- HAV
2x ATR

JFK- HAV
1-2x 738

SJU will probably have a few links as well on the ATR

DL:
ATL-HAV 2-3x 738 / 320 / M80 or 4-6 daily CRJs
ATL- Santiago, Holguin, Camaguay, Varadero
1-2x each on CRJ

UA:
EWR-HAV
1-2x 738/9, possibly 753 during peak travel times
IAH- HAV
1x 738 / 319 / 320
FLL- HAV
4-6x B1900
FLL- Santiago, Holguin, Camaguay, Varadero + others?
1-3x B1900
TPA- HAV
2-3x B1900
EYW-HAV
1x B1900

US:
CLT-HAV
1-2x 319/320

B9:
JFK-HAV 2x 320
JFK- Santiago 1x320
MCO- HAV 2x E190
FLL- HAV 2x E190
BOS- HAV 1x320

NK:
FLL-HAV
2x 319
FLL- Santiago
1x 319
ORD-HAV
1x 319

i am sure WN/FL won't ignore the cuba market once the merger gets ironed out, so long as WN remains committed to caribbean services from ATL.

i am sure MSY and the DC area would also see a flight at some point. i am not sure which US carrier would serve these routes. perhaps Cubana would do so should they end up operating to the US?

further down the line if the business, tourist, and VFR market matures, we could see services to smaller cities in the US east/southeast and probably even LAX.

i'd love to see cuba do well for itself in the coming years, especially now that this bogus embargo's days are numbered. i will certainly be visiting as soon as i am able.
 
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Thu Oct 20, 2011 10:10 am

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Thread starter):
I've always wanted to visit for some reason, and I'm sure I'll be able to one day

Why don't you fly into Mexico or Canada then transfer onto cuba on AC or Aeromexico or even on Cubana?
there's your chance so you don't have to wait and tell the arrival guy not to stamp your passport.
 
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Thu Oct 20, 2011 10:10 am

I think DL or AA will try an LAX flight at some point shortly after the embargo is lifted, 757 probably only 2-3 X weekly. Don't forget if sanctions are lifted Cuban airlines would gain access to the USA as well as negotiations were worked out.
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Byrdluvs747
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Thu Oct 20, 2011 10:20 am

In regards to AA, DFW would have to have a route as well. Maybe 2x738.
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Thu Oct 20, 2011 10:22 am

Quoting CO 757-300 (Reply 3):

Now that's what I like to see, but I think DL would offer more service than that. They are pretty big in Florida, and if they mirror their Cancun ops, you'll see tons of cities on Saturdays lol

Quoting aircanada014 (Reply 4):
Quoting DeltaMD90 (Thread starter):
I've always wanted to visit for some reason, and I'm sure I'll be able to one day

Why don't you fly into Mexico or Canada then transfer onto cuba on AC or Aeromexico or even on Cubana?
there's your chance so you don't have to wait and tell the arrival guy not to stamp your passport.

Well, mainly because I non-rev on Delta, and transferring like in your plan would cost money  Plus I'm in the military and they have ways of knowing everything about you! Wouldn't want to risk my career over anything, and I'm sure one day soon the US will realize the Soviet Union is gone and life the embargo! (yeah I know there's more to the reasoning than just that, but not very much.)

So I take it after HAV, Santiago is the big #2?
 
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Thu Oct 20, 2011 11:49 am

I wouldn't get too excited about the embargo being lifted....as long as a Castro is in charge ,I dont see anything happening.
"Suspicion is a matter of opinion"
 
airliner777
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Thu Oct 20, 2011 1:05 pm

.......and hopefully Cubana flying HAV and SCU-MIA using their Yak-42s and TU-204s. I guess that's just a dream for now.  
 
hiflyer
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Thu Oct 20, 2011 1:22 pm

It has been speculated that the atr's for eagle were waiting on the lifting...from SoFla the turboprops would do well. In addition more than a couple cruise ships would relocate as floating hotels on a temp basis while others would market a whole new route just circa-navigating the island.

Cuba will be cheap compared to the other islands in the beginning...tourism to Cuba will take away from other carib nations immediately impacting the region overall...an impact that will be felt as far east as Barbados and west to Cancun. Don't forget the cheap medical 'tourism' traffic...
 
DFWEagle
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Thu Oct 20, 2011 2:01 pm

Great thread - I've often considered this myself!

Quoting CO 757-300 (Reply 3):

AA:
MIA-HAV
6-10x ATR, or 3-4x 738s

I think AA would have WAY more capacity than that on MIA-HAV, assuming they were allowed.

Even with the embargo in place, there are around 5-6 daily 737's in the MIA-HAV market (charters using various companies including AA), and that is with zero tourism or business traffic and heavily restricted visiting friends/relatives (VFR) traffic. The number of Cubans in Miami is enormous, and the distance so short that without restrictions, VFR traffic would be far, far greater than it is now. There would also likely be significant tourism to Cuba from the USA and developing trade/business links (now prohibited) would increase traffic even more. I would expect very close business links to develop between Miami and Havana, driving lots of traffic.

Also, Miami is in a perfect geographic position to funnel traffic from Cuba to destinations all over the USA and AA has the network in place to do it, as they do for dozens of Caribbean destinations. Without frequency restrictions, I'd expect a minimum of around 8-9x daily 738s/757s providing a frequent MIA-HAV shuttle - possibly a lot more than that.

Quoting CO 757-300 (Reply 3):
MIA-Camaguay, Holguin, Santiago, Varadero
2-3x ATR to each

I think these might be more likely to see 2-3x daily 738s rather than ATRs, at least for HOG, CMW and SCU. They already support mainline VFR charters from MIA and, as for HAV, the market will only get bigger as restrictions are lifted. If AA wants to go for frequency, they could use the ATRs to HOG, CMW, SCU etc., but I'd expect nearer 6-7x daily each if that is the case.

Perhaps AA would try a few of the smaller cities with the ATR at 1-2x daily, or some of the resorts like Cayo Coco which might even put up a subsidy to attract Americans.

Quoting CO 757-300 (Reply 3):
TPA- HAV
4-6x ATR or 1-2 daily 738
TPA- Santiago
2x ATR
MCO- HAV
2x ATR

Personally I don't think AA would bother with MCO-HAV since they don't feel the need to do so with any other of their extensive Caribbean/Latin network. I think FLL-HAV could be a possibility and perhaps TPA-HAV, but even that is doubtful. AA is very hub-focused and I personally think they would focus on dominating the big Miami-Cuba market and leave the rest of the Florida-Cuba market to others.

Quoting CO 757-300 (Reply 3):
JFK- HAV
1-2x 738

Agreed, either 2x738s or possibly 1x763 as AA does with JFK-SDQ/STI/PAP. I guess it depends on how much business traffic develops between NYC and HAV - 2x738 would be better for business but 1x763 would be more efficient if the market remains primarily VFR.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 6):
In regards to AA, DFW would have to have a route as well.

I agree. I'd also expect 1-2x daily 738/757 on DFW-HAV to serve the Central/Western USA.

Quoting CO 757-300 (Reply 3):
SJU will probably have a few links as well on the ATR

If the ATR is still in SJU by the time any of this happens! The way AA has cut back intra-Caribbean flying, they might have ended it altogether by then.
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Thu Oct 20, 2011 3:39 pm

Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 11):
I think AA would have WAY more capacity than that on MIA-HAV, assuming they were allowed.

Maybe, but I would also see some entreprenurial people opening up a high speed ferry between Key West and Havana. That would suck alot of the pax out of MIA
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peteinmiami
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Thu Oct 20, 2011 4:43 pm

First let's talk about geography, Cuba is an unique island in the Caribbean, because of it size, it is a really long but narrow island, so flights to only one airport and travelling to other places is not the best solution. Currently there are 38 civil airports located all over the island (I should say the islands, because Cuba is an archipealago), of them at least 18 have currently scheduled commercial services mostly domestic and of them 9 have international services, mainly to Europe, Canada, Latin America and the Caribbean, and of course scheduled charter services to the US (HAV, CFG, CMW, HOG, SCU).

The busiest airport in Cuba is HAV, Havana by itself is a city of more than 2,000,000 people, center of the country goverment, and business and also a huge tourist destination. The second busiest airport is VRA, located about 2 hours east of Havana by car, mainly a tourist destination, great beaches, huge resorts, in a way is the Cuban Cancun.

There is a huge Cuban expatried comunity all over the world, concentrated mainly in the USA (Miami, New York, Los Angeles and Puerto Rico), Spain, Venezuela, Mexico, Canada, you name it, you will find a Cuban. It is estimate than more than 2,000,000 of Cubans live outside their country. From the USA you will see a lot of flight catering to this segment of the population . Just today , in a restricted travel condition there are 7 flights to HAV from MIA, and October is a low season month, during high season (Summer and around Christmas) you get at least 12 flights between those two cities. Imagine the amount of traffic when the market is liberalized.

The second type of trafic you will get to Cuba will be business/ goverment(if relationships between the two countries are restablished) and that will be concentrated mainly to HAV. Currently most of that type of traffice is going to Europe, China, Mexico, Canada and Latin America

And last but not least the tourist crowds, with flights from all over the US, not only to HAV, but to a pletora of aiports all over the islands, similar to what you get from the US to the Mexican tourist destinations like CUN
 
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Thu Oct 20, 2011 4:49 pm

Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 11):
Even with the embargo in place, there are around 5-6 daily 737's in the MIA-HAV market

I remember looking at the departure monitors in MIA and seeing HAV as a destination...pretty cool.
"Suspicion is a matter of opinion"
 
mhkansan
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Thu Oct 20, 2011 5:27 pm

I think the embargo would be lifted relatively soon after, and if, Obama wins a second term. If one of the Republican challengers wins the race, even though Cuban links would be great for business, it would likely be another decade or more before the embargo was lifted.

I'm very excited for that day!
 
flymia
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Thu Oct 20, 2011 5:45 pm

We do have to remember that when the Embargo is lifted Cuba might add a lot of regulations. Of course they would want US airlines to come in though.

Quoting CO 757-300 (Reply 3):
AA:
MIA-HAV
6-10x ATR, or 3-4x 738s
MIA-Camaguay, Holguin, Santiago, Varadero


Much much more than that, MIA has more flights than that already with the embargo!

Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 11):
I think AA would have WAY more capacity than that on MIA-HAV, assuming they were allowed.


Exactly. Look below:

Quoting peteinmiami (Reply 13):
Just today , in a restricted travel condition there are 7 flights to HAV from MIA, and October is a low season month, during high season (Summer and around Christmas) you get at least 12 flights between those two cities. Imagine the amount of traffic when the market is liberalized.


I think with out restrictions AA could fly at least an hourly shuttle out of MIA with 738s to HAV. 12-14 flights a day no problem. MIA already has 5-7 flights a day to Havana with an embargo. Some of the other large cities will probably get a few flights 2-3 daily mainline and the smaller towns would get ATR's. The market would be huge and I am sure if the embargo was lifted this weekend and AA was allowed to start flights they would cut a few routes without even thinking about it and put 2 or 3 738s or 757s on the route ASAP.

Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 11):
I think FLL-HAV could be a possibility and perhaps TPA-HAV,


Both of those would happen. FLL would probably get a few daily no problem. TPA a flight or two. MCO maybe not.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 12):
Maybe, but I would also see some entreprenurial people opening up a high speed ferry between Key West and Havana. That would suck alot of the pax out of MIA


Huh? A Key West-Havana ferry would have zero impact on MIA traffic. What is easier a 10min drive to MIA for a 60min flight or a 2-3 hour drive to Key West for a 60min ferry ride? Maybe a ferry from the Port of Miami but even that would be much longer than a flight.

Cuba would become THE destination of the Caribbean. And MIA IMO would see over 30 flights a day to different Cuban destinations. FLL, TPA, ATL, DFW, IAH, LAX, JFK, IAD, ORD, CLT are the other airports which would get service pretty quickly also. But I think a hourly shuttle is very much possible on MIA-HAV.

Quoting peteinmiami (Reply 13):
Just today , in a restricted travel condition there are 7 flights to HAV from MIA, and October is a low season month, during high season (Summer and around Christmas) you get at least 12 flights between those two cities. Imagine the amount of traffic when the market is liberalized.

I always enjoy that. I have seen some pretty shocked and confused faces when people saw all those flights to HAV on the board.

[Edited 2011-10-20 10:46:38]
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maxpower1954
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Thu Oct 20, 2011 6:23 pm

Quoting flymia (Reply 16):
What is easier a 10min drive to MIA for a 60min flight or a 2-3 hour drive to Key West for a 60min ferry ride?

More like 3.5 or even 4 hours, which makes his staement even more off the wall.

And since it's 91 nautical miles from Key West to Havana, it's no 60 minute ferry ride either - unless it's a 90 knot plus ship!

Back in the 1950s, there was indeed an auto ferry that ran between Key West and Havana. You could drive your Studebaker down the Overseas Highway to Stock Island and take a 7 hour ride across the Florida Straits to Cuba. How cool was that?

http://www.explorekeywesthistory.com...20Files/Drive%20to%20Havana-E.html

[Edited 2011-10-20 11:29:27]

[Edited 2011-10-20 11:58:30]
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Thu Oct 20, 2011 10:05 pm

Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 11):
I think AA would have WAY more capacity than that on MIA-HAV, assuming they were allowed.
Quoting flymia (Reply 16):
Much much more than that, MIA has more flights than that already with the embargo!

I just wonder how Cubana and the Cuban government would respond to 20 AA 737s flying MIA-HAV... I think their government would put some restrictions on the US until Cubana could order some new planes. I know there is a whole world to fly to for Cubana and am not trying to make the US sound like the only place a Cuban wants to go, but it is a huge market and very close to Cuba, and I see Cubana benefiting greatly.

What do you think other airlines would do? I'm sure DL would add ATL and JFK, but I also see them offering TPA, MCO, FLL or even MIA in their latest "push" into MIA. When you think Florida to the Caribbean, you think AA, but DL has a huge presence in Florida and is pretty decent in the Caribbean.

US out of CLT, PHL, or DCA?

CO/UA out of IAH, IAD, or EWR (hmm, CO/UA really needs a Southeast US hub!)

My biggest question though, (besides my favorite airline, Delta) is what would Cubana do? I could see them adding flights across the US. I'm not saying HAV-ICT, but places like LAX, ORD, JFK, SFO, BOS, DFW, IAH, etc. I'm surprised our Cuban posters haven't shed some light, I think they'd be the most qualified to answer.
 
flymia
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Thu Oct 20, 2011 10:21 pm

I agree there probably would be plenty of restrictions. However, that would be dumb for Cuba IMO. It is a state run airline, why not just allow as many flights, and passengers into the country as possible. More money.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 18):
US out of CLT, PHL, or DCA?


I am thinking just CLT. DCA is a no go unless there is pre-clearance in HAV which is doubtful. For Cuban traffic we have the obvious places: MIA, FLL, TPA, JFK than probably IAD and LAX. But since I think Cuba would become the new spot to be I think most large hubs will have a flight or two. DFW, ORD, CLT, PHL, EWR, IAH, ATL, DTW.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 18):
I'm sure DL would add ATL and JFK, but I also see them offering TPA, MCO, FLL or even MIA in their latest "push" into MIA.


FLL without a doubt, IMO FLL could be the 2nd largest destination. NK, B6 would be right in there if they can. TPA I see also, probably B6 or DL. MCO maybe, if so I say B6 ERJ-190 type flight. Who knows what would happen. Honestly any airline would want to start MIA-HAV. But I think AA would just dominate the market and even take a loss for a while with low prices to just keep their foothold on MIA. If 3 airlines (AA/BA) can compete on MIA-LHR imagine how many could compete on MIA-HAV.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 18):
I'm surprised our Cuban posters haven't shed some light, I think they'd be the most qualified to answer.


Since only 16% of the Cuban population has Internet access, are there many out there on Anet?
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Thu Oct 20, 2011 11:03 pm

Quoting flymia (Reply 19):
But I think AA would just dominate the market and even take a loss for a while with low prices to just keep their foothold on MIA. If 3 airlines (AA/BA) can compete on MIA-LHR imagine how many could compete on MIA-HAV.

I mentioned DL because of their new 'push' into MIA. What better way to show your MIA presence than to jump on the minutely shuttle from MIA-HAV?

Quoting flymia (Reply 19):
Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 18):
I'm surprised our Cuban posters haven't shed some light, I think they'd be the most qualified to answer.


Since only 16% of the Cuban population has Internet access, are there many out there on Anet?

There are a couple on here, and they are quite opinionated, so I was interested in what they had to say. Then again, I think one of them lives in Canada. Hm...
 
Byrdluvs747
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Thu Oct 20, 2011 11:06 pm

Another thing we would definitely see is a AA/Cubana codeshare agreement. Would the respective govts frown on a JV between the two? 
Quoting United_fan (Reply 8):
.as long as a Castro is in charge

At the rate Obama is dropping dictators/despots, Castro may not be around to long. 
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peteinmiami
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Thu Oct 20, 2011 11:19 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 18):
I just wonder how Cubana and the Cuban government would respond to 20 AA 737s flying MIA-HAV... I think their government would put some restrictions on the US until Cubana could order some new planes. I know there is a whole world to fly to for Cubana and am not trying to make the US sound like the only place a Cuban wants to go, but it is a huge market and very close to Cuba, and I see Cubana benefiting greatly.

I do not think the Cuban goverment will impose restrictions to US airlines wanting to fly to Cuba, as long as Cubana is allowed to flight to the US. Same way like Canadian airlines are allowed to flight dozen of flights to Cuba, when Cubana only has some few flights mainly to YYZ and YUL . The Cuban goverment is aware of the advantages of having tourists expending money in Cuba, and that is enough motivation for them to allow a sort of open sky environment to Cuban airports from Canada, I have no reason to think is going to be different with the US

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 18):
I'm surprised our Cuban posters haven't shed some light, I think they'd be the most qualified to answer.

Well you got one here, I am Cuban-american, most of the Cuban people you see here live outside Cuba. Internet there is a luxury, very restricted and controlled by the government!!
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Thu Oct 20, 2011 11:22 pm

Quoting peteinmiami (Reply 22):

Where do you think Cubana would expand to? The US legacies are pretty obvious, from their close hubs and Florida more or less. Surely, there have got to be some Cubans wanting to go to LAX or SFO or something? Or is this just too "what-if" at the moment?
 
peteinmiami
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Thu Oct 20, 2011 11:31 pm

Well, MIA for sure, JFK or EWR ( a lot of Cubans in NJ) and also LAX ( third biggest concentration of Cubans in the US), FLL maybe, EYW also a possibility for VFR traffic. I think will concentrate on VFR traffic from these cities, rather than going after the tourists, at least at the begining!!
 
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Thu Oct 20, 2011 11:37 pm

Quoting mhkansan (Reply 15):
I think the embargo would be lifted relatively soon after, and if, Obama wins a second term.

One potential wildcard is the continued presence of a Cuban-American senator on Capitol Hill. Mel Martinez (a Cuban-American Republican from Florida) fought lifting the Cuban embargo for many years. After he retired, he was replaced by Marco Rubio, another Cuban-American Republican.

That said, there is one problem with lifting the Cuban embargo so soon. It is the law of supply and demand. After all these years, there still aren't enough hotel rooms to meet demand from Canadians and Europeans. If the US lifts the Cuban embargo (and unlike some, I expect it to happen in my lifetime), there would suddenly be a rush of extra demand for very limited lodging options. As a result, lodging rates would go through the roof due to new demand from Americans, even for the Canadians and Europeans that are accustomed to vacationing in Cuba. Of course, new hotels would need to be built to meet demand, but it would take at least 3-5 years before something even close to equilibrium could be reached.
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Fri Oct 21, 2011 12:23 am

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 25):
Of course, new hotels would need to be built to meet demand, but it would take at least 3-5 years before something even close to equilibrium could be reached.

I agree. I do see a lot of development of Cuba when the embargo has been lifted though. I'm not saying Canada and Europe are incapable of helping to rebuild Cuba, but the fact that the US is so close makes me think the US will do a lot more than anyone else would have done. I can see lots of hotel/resort chains as well as cruiselines pouring money in. Heck, just on cruises alone their economy will boom. Every ship going out of Florida to the Caribbean has this huge chunk of land they have to sail around, but all of the sudden, this tropical paradise is now open! I agree that there will be a peak in travel just because it was taboo, but after the dust settles, Cuba will continue to be a large destination just because, well, it's in the way. Instead of sailing around it, cruises will just stop at it more. Hopefully the embargo will lift soon  
 
automaticboy6
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Fri Oct 21, 2011 12:30 am

The service to Cuba out of YUL is incredible. Surprisingly, Havana is not one of the more popular destinations. This is the line up for weekly departures...

Varadero, 14 flights
Santa Clara, 7 flights
Holguin, 6 flights
Cayo Coco, 5 flights
Cayo Largo del Sur, 3 flights
Havana, 2 flights
Cienfuegos, 1 flights


Cubana is the only airline operating to Havana. If we are thinking resort destination wise, I don't think the demand will be that high from many airlines to HAV. Varadero on the other hand is operated by Air Canada, Air Transat, Canjet, Cubana, Sunwing, and Westjet. That may be US carriers first city.
 
maiYYZ
Posts: 28
Joined: Sat Jul 07, 2001 10:27 am

RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Fri Oct 21, 2011 12:30 am

I was discussing this topic with a friend of mine who is Cuban and live here in Toronto for a few years now, but travel back to Havana frequently. He told me that Havana or even Cuba would n t be prepared right now for a flood of American tourists or Cuban-American returning to visit relatives. Jose Marti airport currently just doesn t have the capacity of handling a sudden increase of traffic and there is not enough hotels to accommodate everybody.
Flown Cubana IL62M, A320 / Canadian Airlines B763 / Royal Airlines B752, A312 / Air Canada CRJ6, B763, A342, B773, B789 / American Airlines E145, B738, A319, B772, B773 / United DHD-8, B764, B772 / Canjet 738 / US Airways A332 / Delta CRJ200, B763
 
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DeltaMD90
Topic Author
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Fri Oct 21, 2011 12:34 am

Quoting automaticboy6 (Reply 27):
The service to Cuba out of YUL is incredible.

Welcome to a.net! You bring up a good point, I wonder if US-Cuba flights would take a chunk out of Canadian flights. I know lifting the embargo would increase demand, but it also gives the opportunity for many to connect through the US as well, instead of Canada only. Will be interesting to see
 
flymia
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Fri Oct 21, 2011 12:40 am

Quoting maiYYZ (Reply 28):
I was discussing this topic with a friend of mine who is Cuban and live here in Toronto for a few years now, but travel back to Havana frequently. He told me that Havana or even Cuba would n t be prepared right now for a flood of American tourists or Cuban-American returning to visit relatives. Jose Marti airport currently just doesn't have the capacity of handling a sudden increase of traffic and there is not enough hotels to accommodate everybody.


You are right on this. Cuba and HAV are no way ready for it. However I would imagine a somewhat slow process. Not just open the flood gates. American companies will invest Billions in Cuba. I know that many companies like hotel chains, cruise lines etc.. already have basic plans on what they would want to do in Cuba. I would hope the airlines have some idea too. But I think when it is lifted it will be a slow process of slowly letting go of restrictions and hopefully the first to be lifted would be companies allowing investment and construction. I think Cuba would be the place to be, it would take away travel from many other islands not just in the first 5 years or so but that would be the norm. Cuba was a huge American tourist destination before the embargo. It is IMO the best Island the Caribbean has to offer and it is the biggest of course.

Quoting automaticboy6 (Reply 27):
The service to Cuba out of YUL is incredible.


I would not call that incredible. A decent amount of flights but for a country which the people are allowed to travel to it is pretty low/normal service. MIA has more service with the embargo. Showing how crazy the market would be without it. It would compete with the SYD-MEL, BCN-MAD's etc..
"It was just four of us on the flight deck, trying to do our job" (Captain Al Haynes)
 
nostrum
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Fri Oct 21, 2011 1:24 am

LAX is already served by CO as a scheduled charter flight. I believe 2x weekly, after MIA & JFK, LAX was the 3rd US airport to recieve special permision to serve charter flights to Cuba way before Tampa, Atlanta and Ft. Laudardale. If LAX can support charter flights which are only for SOME Cuban-Americans wanting to visit family, and very few other privileged then I'm almost sure there will be few flights a week or 1 daily.

Havana though the 1930s-1950s was THE destination in the Caribbean. For Americans, it was like a Monaco in the western hemisphere and just a few hours away, with its casinos runned by American mafiosos the city made more revenues than Las Vegas, NV. The Cuban Revolution obviously said the party is over and communism took over the American capistalism, but with Cuba opening up to capitalism again in the future I'm sure hundreds of American companies will invest heavily in Cuba (some already expressed their interest) and the island will be connected to many American cities.

[Edited 2011-10-20 18:46:49]
 
zkeoj
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Fri Oct 21, 2011 1:53 am

Quoting aircanada014 (Reply 4):
Why don't you fly into Mexico or Canada then transfer onto cuba on AC or Aeromexico or even on Cubana?
there's your chance so you don't have to wait and tell the arrival guy not to stamp your passport.

still dangerous for American citizens! I once checked in at YYZ, and saw Amercian immigration officers walk up and down the queue at check-in for a SkyService flight to Cuba, asking for passports. They asked one couple to go away with them (obviously for some questioning, although I couldn't hear the converstaion). I was shocked to see that, and how much another country (i.e. Canada) allows them to do. I find it bad enough that they have immigration on Canadian soil for flights to the mainland US, although it makes operatons easier, since the Canada originated flights can use domestic gates in the US then...

Back on topic: Cuba is amazing, and I have no doubt that many Americans will love it as much as many non-Americans do. And there is rich American (pre-communism) history there!

Cheers
micha
 
yenne09
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Fri Oct 21, 2011 2:00 am

Last April I went to Cuba for the first time. I traveled aboard a Cubana/Taca A320 to Cienfuegos. When we arrived there, there was an American Eagle ATR-42 waiting for departure. We were close to Trinidad in Playa de Ancon on the south side of Cuba. I was surprised when I visited Trinidad to see the Spanish colonial architecture which is very beautiful. Also
Trinidad is part of UNESCO world heritage. It is very different from the other islands.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Fri Oct 21, 2011 2:06 am

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 25):
If the US lifts the Cuban embargo (and unlike some, I expect it to happen in my lifetime), there would suddenly be a rush of extra demand for very limited lodging options.

Maybe. But it's important to realize that lifting the embargo doesn't mean immediate open skies. The government of Cuba might sharply limit capacity, perhaps to the number of frequencies that CU operates to the States, in an effort to protect CU. That would lead to an interesting situation in the air market, as demand would outstrip supply by quite a bit (of course, folks on the west coast could and might connect in Mexico and folks in the north could and might connect in Canada).
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
comorin
Posts: 3858
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Fri Oct 21, 2011 2:41 am

Quoting peteinmiami (Reply 13):
First let's talk about geography, Cuba is an unique island in the Caribbean, because of it size,

A lot of people don't realize that. Cuba has a population of 11 million, making it the biggest in the Caribbean, four times the size of Puerto Rico. HAV and VRA will become major airports if and when the embargo is lifted.

The embargo is more than about travel; it also restricts investment by US companies. So if the embargo is lifted, one can expect a huge investment in infrastructure (assuming the Cubans want that). Like in Eastern Europe, it is not always easy to trade a life based on a rigid system to a free wheeling market society overnight.

Cubans are also well educated in the professions, and many businesses will find it attractive to set up there. Best of all, it is only a hop, skip and a jump away from the US.
 
StarAC17
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Fri Oct 21, 2011 2:53 am

Quoting United_fan (Reply 8):
I wouldn't get too excited about the embargo being lifted....as long as a Castro is in charge ,I dont see anything happening.

I don't think it has as much to do with Castro who is pretty benign in the present day to begin with (at least relatively speaking). It unfortunately has a lot more to do with a lot of pandering to Cuban ex-pats in South Florida who will vote against any politician that favours lifting the embargo.

The US trades with countries far worse than Cuba right now in terms of human rights violations.

Quoting flyglobal (Reply 2):
Probably for US citicens CUBA will become The' destination for some time as soon as the embargo is lifted.

That is unfortunate because it means that Cuba will become what it was going the way of before Castro took over it, but instead of Mafia control it will be resort corporations expanding there. I would want Cuba to benefit from trading with the US again but don't take it out of control building resorts everywhere. The novelty of a place frozen in time is what brings in a lot of its tourists.

Its up to the Cuban to make the decision about what is done with their country when the embargo is lifted.
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
AA767LOVER
Posts: 488
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Fri Oct 21, 2011 2:59 am

Cut the bloody charters, lift the dumb embargo, and let's go to Cuba .. . there's a lot of richness in history. But it's true what has been said .. .Jose Marti International is in no position to be a Caribbean Hub given the size of the airport. There's not enough gates. In the hot summer, we were left on the tarmac on the TACA flight continuing on to San Salvador. At least there was some A/C. But it will be the advent in air travel.

MIA/FLL wouldn't really need large planes. MCO could use 320s or E190s on B6.
CLT could use a CRJ-900 to HAV.
ATL could use a 73G or 73H depending on demand; WN could see Cuba being its first international destination from ATL.
DFW - agreed that a 738 is good enough. How about the SJU hub? An AT7?
IAH could send ERJ-XLR or 73G's to HAV based on demand.
EWR could see a 738 or 739 on the weekends. HAV is really more of a weekend getaway place than a business destination, wouldn't you think? More resort than a world-class city like NYC, PAR or LON.
But it has a lot of charm for sure.
JFK could use a 757 to HAV either AA/DL could run this.
LAX-HAV regular? I would think Virgin America could try it first.
IAD-HAV - UNITED A319 maybe.
J.I. Tsui, American Advantage Member, United Mileage Plus (Premier)
 
automaticboy6
Posts: 6
Joined: Mon Oct 03, 2011 7:15 pm

RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Fri Oct 21, 2011 3:25 am

Quoting flymia (Reply 30):
I would not call that incredible. A decent amount of flights but for a country which the people are allowed to travel to it is pretty low/normal service. MIA has more service with the embargo. Showing how crazy the market would be without it. It would compete with the SYD-MEL, BCN-MAD's etc..

Cuba is the number one sun destination for Canadians. For the population in Montreal, TS alone has a very strong market into the various cities, selling out with there A333, A332, and A310. And thats without the B737 from Westjet, Cubana, and Sunwing, and the A319's on AC. The YUL-Cuba market is strong.
 
flymia
Posts: 7118
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Fri Oct 21, 2011 3:58 am

Quoting ZKEOJ (Reply 32):
Canadian soil for flights to the mainland US, although it makes operatons easier, since the Canada originated flights can use domestic gates in the US then...


Canada gets a lot of benefits from this.

Quoting ZKEOJ (Reply 32):
They asked one couple to go away with them (obviously for some questioning, although I couldn't hear the converstaion). I was shocked to see that, and how much another country (i.e. Canada) allows them to do. I


I doubt Canada and/or Canadian Airlines want to be responsible for transporting Americans to Cuba if something were to happen there etc.. The airlines know where they are from.

Quoting yenne09 (Reply 33):
I was surprised when I visited Trinidad to see the Spanish colonial architecture


The architecture in Cuba is awesome.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 34):
Maybe. But it's important to realize that lifting the embargo doesn't mean immediate open skies. The government of Cuba might sharply limit capacity, perhaps to the number of frequencies that CU operates to the States, in an effort to protect CU.


That would just be a very dumb move on Cuba's part. CU is a state ran airline and not a large one. I think they would rather have as many Americans coming into the country as possible than limit flights for their state run small airline to be protected. They want money. AA having 30 flights a day into Cuba will make more money for the country than limiting AA to 10 flights a day because that is all CU can fly.

Quoting automaticboy6 (Reply 38):
Cuba is the number one sun destination for Canadians. For the population in Montreal, TS alone has a very strong market into the various cities, selling out with there A333, A332, and A310. And thats without the B737 from Westjet, Cubana, and Sunwing, and the A319's on AC. The YUL-Cuba market is strong.


I am sure it is, but, I dont see 38 flights a week to a large tourist destination and decent sized country "incredible:
"It was just four of us on the flight deck, trying to do our job" (Captain Al Haynes)
 
Bureaucromancer
Posts: 113
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:17 am

RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Fri Oct 21, 2011 4:15 am

Whatever we may say about Cubana being limited in capabilities, it would be fun to see the inevitable use of IL-92s on MIA-HAV.
 
sccutler
Posts: 5835
Joined: Thu Jan 27, 2000 12:16 pm

RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Fri Oct 21, 2011 4:29 am

Quoting mhkansan (Reply 15):
I think the embargo would be lifted relatively soon after, and if, Obama wins a second term. If one of the Republican challengers wins the race, even though Cuban links would be great for business, it would likely be another decade or more before the embargo was lifted.

No President, R or D, has ever hinted at lifting the embargo, and with the political clout of the Cuban-American community in Florida, none is likely to take that action anytime soon.
...three miles from BRONS, clear for the ILS one five approach...
 
Superfly
Posts: 37705
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Fri Oct 21, 2011 6:49 am

Quoting CO 757-300 (Reply 3):
this is all my personal speculation and dependent upon the slot situation, but a few of years down the line, i could see it looking something like this:

Your list didn't include Cubana.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 23):
Surely, there have got to be some Cubans wanting to go to LAX or SFO or something?

That would be best with the IL-96. Same for the JFK route given the amount of Cubans living in the New York metro area.

Quoting AA767LOVER (Reply 37):
LAX-HAV regular? I would think Virgin America could try it first.

That would be a great destination for Virgin America. However, I'd like to see Cubana on that route.
Bring back the Concorde
 
ghYHZ
Posts: 416
Joined: Tue Feb 26, 2008 4:26 pm

RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Fri Oct 21, 2011 9:53 am

Quoting ZKEOJ (Reply 32):
I once checked in at YYZ, and saw Amercian immigration officers walk up and down the queue at check-in for a SkyService flight to Cuba, asking for passports. They asked one couple to go away with them (obviously for some questioning, although I couldn't hear the converstaion).

Are you sure? I can’t see how this would ever be permitted, a US Immigration Officer walking the check-in line of a Canada to Cuba flight? What authority would they have to ask me as a Canadian to see my Passport and how could they tell? Does an American look any different than a Canadian?

The US CBP and some authority in the designated Pre-Clearance areas but even there, a Canadian RCMP officer is present to enforce laws. Can’t see this authority being extended into an obvious “Canadian” area of the airport!

>>>>>>>>>>>

Yes Cuba is a major winter destination for Canadians. Here, YHZ has numerous flights to several Cuban destinations and last year, service on Cubana. Even small regional airports here in the Atlantic Provinces such as Moncton, Charlottetown, Gander have non-stop service.
 
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DeltaMD90
Topic Author
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RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Fri Oct 21, 2011 10:01 am

Quoting Superfly (Reply 42):
IL-96

IL-96s? They better fly to ATL then! I love those airplanes for some strange reason!  

I guess since this thread hasn't digressed into a political bloodbath, and since I'm the OP and can do whatever I want (   ) I can ask: why hasn't the embargo been lifted? Obviously it is an opinion, but I've seen many opinions on here. Is it pride? Is it Castro? Is it because Cuba is still 'communist'? No politician wants to touch it? I am in no real position to talk because I am just getting to be at an age where I can think for myself and I can't really criticize the past since I was young, but it will be interesting to see what yall think  
 
ghYHZ
Posts: 416
Joined: Tue Feb 26, 2008 4:26 pm

RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Fri Oct 21, 2011 10:18 am

Quoting ghYHZ (Reply 43):
Are you sure? I can’t see how this would ever be permitted, a US Immigration Officer walking the check-in line of a Canada to Cuba flight? What authority would they have to ask me as a Canadian to see my Passport and how could they tell? Does an American look any different than a Canadian?


I've heard stories of US CBP in Montreal watching who's getting off flights arriving from Cuba to see if they proceed to the US Pre-clearance area for a flight home.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14175
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Fri Oct 21, 2011 12:20 pm

Quoting flymia (Reply 39):
That would just be a very dumb move on Cuba's part.

Restrictive air travel treaties are almost always a dumb move on governments' parts, and yet they exist all over the world.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
Superfly
Posts: 37705
Joined: Thu May 11, 2000 8:01 am

RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Fri Oct 21, 2011 1:32 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 44):
I love those airplanes for some strange reason!

Nothing strange about that at all. It's far more interesting than the onslaught of twins, especially down in ATL - 777, A330, 767, A320, 737s.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 44):
Is it pride? Is it Castro? Is it because Cuba is still 'communist'? No politician wants to touch it?

Its mainly pride and no politician wants to touch it. The Cuban American population in south Florida is very powerful and Florida is a swing state.
Bring back the Concorde
 
mhkansan
Posts: 860
Joined: Sun Jan 17, 2010 9:02 pm

RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Fri Oct 21, 2011 2:17 pm

Quoting Superfly (Reply 47):
Its mainly pride and no politician wants to touch it. The Cuban American population in south Florida is very powerful and Florida is a swing state.

This is why I think Obama will wait until his second term - maybe even late into it, because he will not need worry about trying to win reelection for himself, and the next Democrat can pander to the Cuban Americans without saying he's going to reinstate the embargo.

Likely US Businesses will be far more than pleased with the move. Cuba is a huge, relatively untapped market for goods.
 
AirbusA6
Posts: 1627
Joined: Tue Apr 26, 2005 5:53 am

RE: Air Travel Between USA And Cuba Post-Embargo?

Fri Oct 21, 2011 2:48 pm

I'm off to Cuba over the New year period. AF 77W via CDG. I'm sure the ban will be lifted eventually, but glad I can visit Cuba before it gets swamped with Americans 
it's the bus to stansted (now renamed National Express a6 to ruin my username)

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