Rumor - WestJet - Getting Smaller Planes

YXXMIKE · Wed Nov 09, 2011 3:51 am

Quoting haggisman (Reply 49):
I'd love to see Westjet get some Q400s and go head to head with Air Canada on the YVR-YCD route. Air Canada have had it to themselves for years and as a result prices have doubled in the last three years - $142 for a 7 minute flight.

That would fill in Westjets Vancouver Island service nicely. They already fly Comox to Calgary and Victoria to Calgary. Feeding their YVR base with traffic from the island would be a good move in my opinion.

Scotty

If it is Q400's that WS is after then the route possibilities become very interesting to Vancouver Island. Seeing as WS already dominates at YQQ, would the offer a regional service to YVR out of YCD or YBL? Or go head to head at YCD and seasonal out of YBL to compete on the fishing market? Would they expand their offerings out of YYJ to start competing with horizon on SEA?

From what I've heard, WS has some very very deep pockets at the moment and are ready to wage war. Should be another interesting chapter in Canadian aviation if they do decide to go head to head with AC on the regional markets.

threepoint · Wed Nov 09, 2011 4:31 am

Quoting haggisman (Reply 49):
YVR-YCD route...7 minute flight.

I get your point, but to be more accurate, you can triple - at least - the length of time to takes to actually fly the route.

RJLover · Wed Nov 09, 2011 4:31 am

Quoting haggisman (Reply 49):
Air Canada have had it to themselves for years and as a result prices have doubled in the last three years - $142 for a 7 minute flight.

AC hardly has Nanaimo-Vancouver to themselves! Unless I am mistaken, Harbour Air, West Coast Air, Seair, and Tofino Air all still operate from Nanaimo Harbour to either Vancouver Harbour (for those passengers paying $142 to fly ONLY YCD-YVR) or to YVR (floatplane base, with shuttle service to the main terminal).

YVRLTN · Wed Nov 09, 2011 4:56 am

Quoting YXXMIKE (Reply 50):
If it is Q400's that WS is after then the route possibilities become very interesting to Vancouver Island. Seeing as WS already dominates at YQQ, would the offer a regional service to YVR out of YCD or YBL? Or go head to head at YCD and seasonal out of YBL to compete on the fishing market? Would they expand their offerings out of YYJ to start competing with horizon on SEA?

I feel if they did this the loser would be 8P and a lesser extent the floatplane operators rather than AC. While Im sure WS dont particularly care where the pax come from, but it would be sad for YVR and BC aviation for WS to do that to 8P. I would rather they worked together, WS is not adverse to codeshares - CX & DL - so why not regionally too? Win win for both parties IMO.

I also think the Q400 is way too much beast for short runs to the island from YVR. YYC maybe, but not YVR.

haggisman · Wed Nov 09, 2011 7:19 am

Quoting threepoint (Reply 51):

Quoting threepoint (Reply 51):
Quoting haggisman (Reply 49):
YVR-YCD route...7 minute flight.

I get your point, but to be more accurate, you can triple - at least - the length of time to takes to actually fly the route.

Yes it's a 20 min or so block time but I've timed wheels-up to wheels down and have had it as low as 7 mins ... most of time it's about 10 - 15 mins

Scotty

[Edited 2011-11-08 23:20:53]

haggisman · Wed Nov 09, 2011 7:37 am

Quoting RJLover (Reply 52):
Quoting haggisman (Reply 49):
Air Canada have had it to themselves for years and as a result prices have doubled in the last three years - $142 for a 7 minute flight.

AC hardly has Nanaimo-Vancouver to themselves! Unless I am mistaken, Harbour Air, West Coast Air, Seair, and Tofino Air all still operate from Nanaimo Harbour to either Vancouver Harbour (for those passengers paying $142 to fly ONLY YCD-YVR) or to YVR (floatplane base, with shuttle service to the main terminal).

This is true, but I was referring to the Nanaimo Airport - YVR route, not to and from the two seaplane bases in Nanaimo. I doubt WS has any plans there in that area

The Jazz flights are the only game in town at the moment if you want to have a more reliable crossing - floatplanes get socked in with low ceilings and fog. I'm just saying that Westjet would probably do very well flying smaller planes out of YCD by giving AC some much-needed competition on that route and allowing Nanaimo area residents to avoid driving to either Comox or Victoria. Driving over the Malahat Summit in the winter to get to Victoria for an early WS flight to Calgary is not a pleasant experience - I'd much rather fly YCD to YVR on WS and have baggage booked all the way instead of having to take a Jazz flight then gather bags and have to check in again on WS.

Scotty

TheCol · Wed Nov 09, 2011 7:55 am

It's more likely that WestJet would sign Tier 3 agreements with 705 operators that are already well established in the regional market, instead of integrating smaller aircraft into their fleet and operating them on feeder routes.

c172akula · Wed Nov 09, 2011 2:10 pm

Well I guess we'll see what today brings.

Other names I've heard thrown into this have been CMA and Hawkair. Very interesting when you keep in mind that CMA stopped flying some of the small routes for AC Jazz (express) from YYC to Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, and Cranbrook.

Those routes have since been taken over by Georgian flying for AC Express. So CMA may have some extra B1900's lying around waiting for some use.

flyb · Wed Nov 09, 2011 2:36 pm

YEG/YYC - Lethbridge would be awesome.

cyeg66 · Wed Nov 09, 2011 4:07 pm

Quoting flyb (Reply 58):
YEG/YYC - Lethbridge would be awesome.

Say goodbye to YQL-based Integra if that happens, though.

c172akula · Wed Nov 09, 2011 4:13 pm

Well today also happens to be the day they are releasing their third quarter results. Perhaps some of the sources mistook today and that announcement for whatever else is being cooked up?

YYZatcboy · Wed Nov 09, 2011 11:31 pm

As expected there seems to be no announcement. If anyone is cooking up anything they are keeping it pretty quiet.

c172akula · Thu Nov 10, 2011 2:52 am

Nope, something is up though and I guess we'll find out in due time what it is.

YVRLTN · Thu Nov 10, 2011 3:16 am

Quoting C172Akula (Reply 57):
Other names I've heard thrown into this have been CMA and Hawkair. Very interesting when you keep in mind that CMA stopped flying some of the small routes for AC Jazz (express) from YYC to Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, and Cranbrook

Dont CMA own Hawkair now? Theres now a Dash 8 flying around doing charters in basic HA livery, but with a GLR flight # too. HA also moved from the domestic terminal to the main terminal at YVR, right next to WS at the B gates...

TheCol · Thu Nov 10, 2011 4:57 am

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 63):

On paper CMA, Hawkair, and NT Air are owned by the same numbered company. All 3 airlines operate as separate entities for the most part.

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 63):
but with a GLR flight # too.

They operate charters for each other when needed.

c172akula · Tue Nov 15, 2011 8:14 pm

The WS CFO says a lot and nothing at the same time:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...1/15/westjet-idUSN1E7AE0LL20111115

YYZatcboy · Tue Nov 15, 2011 9:13 pm

My money is on some of the unidentified 787 orders being for WestJet.

YXXMIKE · Tue Nov 15, 2011 10:30 pm

Quoting YYZatcboy (Reply 66):
My money is on some of the unidentified 787 orders being for WestJet.

Very interesting, do you think they'll go head to head against AC and if it was a wide body order do you think that would be the key to an alliance for them? Also, how many UFO orders are there still left on the boeing books?

YYZatcboy · Tue Nov 15, 2011 10:41 pm

16 orders are UFO at the moment. I think they are more likely to go head to head against Transat and AC on the leisure markets than to be going head to head against Jazz on the money loosing regional routes.

But that's just me.

golfradio · Tue Nov 15, 2011 10:44 pm

Quoting YYZatcboy (Reply 66):
My money is on some of the unidentified 787 orders being for WestJet.

Hmm ... long, thin routes for WS? Are they starting any ULH destinations?

WestJet747 · Tue Nov 15, 2011 11:05 pm

Quoting YYZatcboy (Reply 68):
16 orders are UFO at the moment. I think they are more likely to go head to head against Transat and AC on the leisure markets than to be going head to head against Jazz on the money loosing regional routes.

But that's just me.

Definitely plausible. But only 2 of the aforementioned 16 UFO orders are 788s. Would WS take that much of a jump to go straight to the 789? Personally, if I were betting on a WS wide-body order, I would almost certainly go for the 788.

Quoting golfradio (Reply 69):
Hmm ... long, thin routes for WS? Are they starting any ULH destinations?

I haven't heard so much as a whisper about ULH destinations. I would love to see it happen though!

YYZatcboy · Tue Nov 15, 2011 11:36 pm

I'd bet 788 too. I think it's much more likely than doing regional flying.

robsaw · Wed Nov 16, 2011 12:36 am

Quoting YYZatcboy (Reply 66):
My money is on some of the unidentified 787 orders being for WestJet.

Westjet is a publicly traded company. They cannot withhold such a large capital investment decision from their required securities regulatory filings.

Westjet is doing nothing more at the moment than every business with any sense does - seriously considering their options - no decision yet.

c172akula · Wed Nov 16, 2011 2:26 am

Hmm, if WS does get the 788's I can just picture the first routes:

YYC-HKG
YYC-PEK
YYC-DXB

ykaops · Wed Nov 16, 2011 10:10 am

Quoting YXXMIKE (Reply 50):
I'd love to see Westjet get some Q400s and go head to head with Air Canada on the YVR-YCD route. Air Canada have had it to themselves for years and as a result prices have doubled in the last three years - $142 for a 7 minute flight.

That would fill in Westjets Vancouver Island service nicely. They already fly Comox to Calgary and Victoria to Calgary. Feeding their YVR base with traffic from the island would be a good move in my opinion.

Scotty

There is NO WAY that a carrier would operate a Q400 on a leg like that! Not to mention the redciulous number of cycles piling up for such a short thin route, wear and tear on a new frame, but crews wud hate making the numerous radio changes on such a short leg over and over.

FYI The shortest commercial flight time recorded on this route was 8 min 37sec on an F28-1000mk in the mid 90's by Canadian Regional

haggisman · Wed Nov 16, 2011 7:47 pm

Quoting ykaops (Reply 74):
Quoting YXXMIKE (Reply 50):
I'd love to see Westjet get some Q400s and go head to head with Air Canada on the YVR-YCD route. Air Canada have had it to themselves for years and as a result prices have doubled in the last three years - $142 for a 7 minute flight.

That would fill in Westjets Vancouver Island service nicely. They already fly Comox to Calgary and Victoria to Calgary. Feeding their YVR base with traffic from the island would be a good move in my opinion.

Scotty

There is NO WAY that a carrier would operate a Q400 on a leg like that! Not to mention the redciulous number of cycles piling up for such a short thin route, wear and tear on a new frame, but crews wud hate making the numerous radio changes on such a short leg over and over.

FYI The shortest commercial flight time recorded on this route was 8 min 37sec on an F28-1000mk in the mid 90's by Canadian Regional

Actually that was me who made that posting, not YXXMIKE. I can sorta see your point about it being overkill with a plane the size of a Q400, but why not include other hops in addition to YVR? Abbotsford and Kelowa come to mind as well as Calgary. Stopping in YVR would be gravy.

BTW I did time the crossing I was on from YVR to YCD and it was a shade over 7 mins - wheels up to wheels down - this was in summer of 2008 on a Jazz Dash8-300

Scotty

YXXMIKE · Wed Nov 16, 2011 9:09 pm

Quoting haggisman (Reply 75):

With a Q400 there are a lot of options out west for WS. I can think of a couple of interesting niche seasonal routes as well as year round routes which a Q400 would be ideal for!

YBL - YLW - YYC
YCD - YVR - YXS
YYJ - YXX - YLW
YXX - YQL

I'm not a fan of WS myself, something I've made abundantly clear in many other posts. However their lower operating costs benefit them on these niche routes. I know YBL isn't a big market but when it comes to fishing season this place booms! It now has a runway which can handle some bigger, heavier machines as well. The other benefit of these airports is their own price point in attracting new service. Obviously with the exception of YYC, they don't have huge facilities and overheads to take care of.

If WS decided on the 787 or a similar widebody it could really do some neat routes, in particular it could offer up something like:

YXX - LGW or even crazier yet, YXX - LGW - DEL/BOM

I think in my opinion if WS decided to run a wide body they'll be highly sought after for an alliance. If they join an alliance then those big birds will be running out of YVR/YYC/YYZ/YUL only.

Bureaucromancer · Wed Nov 16, 2011 9:14 pm

Quoting YXXMIKE (Reply 76):
I think in my opinion if WS decided to run a wide body they'll be highly sought after for an alliance. If they join an alliance then those big birds will be running out of YVR/YYC/YYZ/YUL only.

You might eventually see limited service out of Edmonton, Winnipeg and Halifax as well IMO.

cyeg66 · Wed Nov 16, 2011 9:16 pm

Quoting YXXMIKE (Reply 76):
I think in my opinion if WS decided to run a wide body they'll be highly sought after for an alliance. If they join an alliance then those big birds will be running out of YVR/YYC/YYZ/YUL only.

3 of those 4 perhaps, but unlikely YUL. YUL is dominated by AC and WS's flights from YUL are pretty heavily O & D. They'd need to increase connectivity there significantly. I'd bet my bottom dollar YEG would get something.

Bureaucromancer · Thu Nov 17, 2011 12:12 am

There is another possibility of course, that they are looking at a very small fleet of widebodies almost exclusively for the holiday destinations...

They've already leased larger aircraft for those operations, and five or less aircraft of any type would give their package vacation operation some breating room, and scheduling in general some flexibility without frekaing out the competition in the way that full intercontinental service would (I can't help but think AC would get very aggressive if WS was clearly trying to be a second global Canadian airline between how they normally treat competitors and the amount of trouble they went to to finish Canadian back in 2000. Such a strategy would also open the door to experimenting with intercontinental scheduled service without any painfully large commitments.

At the end of the day, as much as I want another international carrier and as much as I do like WS I have a hard time seeing them risk as much as would be involved in an all out entry to a market that has been the death of a LOT of carriers over the years.

threepoint · Thu Nov 17, 2011 1:49 am

Quoting YXXMIKE (Reply 76):
YBL - YLW - YYC

Not a chance a YBL add-on would make money even in salmon season, although YLW desperately needs Q400 service on its YVR and YYC routes.

Quoting YXXMIKE (Reply 76):
YYJ - YXX - YLW

The entire YYJ-YXX air travel market being reliably served by the current Navajo service. No way they fill 70 more seats. Or even 30. And who would fly YXX-YLW when you're spending hundreds more to save an hour and a half? Anyone off to Kelowna is towing their boat and/or needs their car when they get there.

Quoting YXXMIKE (Reply 76):
YXX - LGW - DEL/BOM

Now you're talking.

YXXMIKE · Thu Nov 17, 2011 2:35 am

Quoting threepoint (Reply 80):
Not a chance a YBL add-on would make money even in salmon season, although YLW desperately needs Q400 service on its YVR and YYC routes.

I say this to a lot of people, they say the exact same thing as you did. How do you know it wouldn't work? What's to say that routing wouldn't work? Do you know how many people from Alberta own property in and around YBL? Have you been to YBL during fishing season? Have you seen all of the planes that come and go out of that airport? Trust me on this one, there is a market for that area.

Quoting threepoint (Reply 80):

The entire YYJ-YXX air travel market being reliably served by the current Navajo service. No way they fill 70 more seats. Or even 30. And who would fly YXX-YLW when you're spending hundreds more to save an hour and a half? Anyone off to Kelowna is towing their boat and/or needs their car when they get there.

Yes, not my best example but if a carrier wanted to compete against a PA31 it would likely have much better economics and be able to offer a much better price offering than the o'll ho'.

Obviously the run up to YLW was a bad example but CMA used to do a YXX - YLW - YXS run. In honesty it didn't do well at the start but it was very busy in the winter because a lot of people didn't want to drive the highways.

Needless to say, a Q400 in the hands of WS is a dangerous little machine and could let them expand into some new markets while turning better margins out of others; like YLW for example. I really wish AC had the ability to be more competitive and have a bit more flexibility to try out some different market offerings. I'd love to see them in YBL as they wouldn't have to compete against WS in YQQ.

JetCaptain · Thu Nov 17, 2011 2:50 am

Quote:
WestJet likely to expand into second aircraft type for fleet

Nicole Mordant, Reuters, November 15, 2011

WestJet Airlines Ltd is likely to diversify from its current single-aircraft fleet type eventually, although no decision has been made at this stage, its chief financial officer said on Tuesday.

"It is likely that we, at some point, will move into a second fleet type. We study it continuously," said Vito Culmone, the CFO of Canada’s second biggest airline.

He said WestJet was studying moves into the wide-body aircraft market as well as the regional aircraft market. At this stage it had no preference for either market.

WestJet operates a single fleet of Boeing Next-Generation 737 aircraft. The uniform fleet, which brings with it lower maintenance, training and other costs, is often cited as a major reason why WestJet’s expenses are one-third lower than bigger rival Air Canada’s.

Culmone’s comments were made at the Scotia Capital transportation and aerospace conference in Toronto.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...1/15/westjet-idUSN1E7AE0LL20111115

connector4you · Thu Nov 17, 2011 3:26 am

Quoting Bureaucromancer (Reply 79):
There is another possibility of course, that they are looking at a very small fleet of widebodies almost exclusively for the holiday destinations...

That makes sense. Summer to Europe, Winter to South America or anywhere else really. Westjet B737 capacity grows fast and their existent codeshare agreements with various global airliners will bring in some additional $ 500 mil within the next five years. I'll say yeah it's a good time to lease a few A330-200 and try to spin them around before AC comes up with their own version of long haul - low cost.

YYZatcboy · Thu Nov 17, 2011 5:38 am

Quoting YXXMIKE (Reply 81):
I say this to a lot of people, they say the exact same thing as you did. How do you know it wouldn't work? What's to say that routing wouldn't work? Do you know how many people from Alberta own property in and around YBL? Have you been to YBL during fishing season? Have you seen all of the planes that come and go out of that airport? Trust me on this one, there is a market for that area.

I think that market is served pretty well by existing flights to YQQ. I mean, it's less than an hours drive YBL-YQQ... Comox already gets multiple flights a day with the 737's from YYC and YEG, so what is the point in doing it with a Dash 8?

yyz717 · Thu Nov 17, 2011 6:03 pm

Quoting C172Akula (Reply 73):
Hmm, if WS does get the 788's I can just picture the first routes:

YYC-HKG
YYC-PEK
YYC-DXB

Nope....more like YYZ-YVR/YYC and YVR/YYC-HNL. All current 738-heavy routes (YYC-HNL is 752 in winter).

Quoting Bureaucromancer (Reply 79):
There is another possibility of course, that they are looking at a very small fleet of widebodies almost exclusively for the holiday destinations...

Yupp, agreed.

I think a 739ER order is more logical than a 788 order though.

Bureaucromancer · Thu Nov 17, 2011 6:39 pm

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 85):
I think a 739ER order is more logical than a 788 order though.

My best guess is that they won't do much of anything until more is known about 737 MAX performance. I would be quite surprised if they DIDN'T get some MAX 9s assuming they have the range to comfortably make HNL from YYC. I'd also guess that widebodies ARE being being examined but that no decision will be made until the MAX decision, and between that timeline and the order backlog on all aircraft types at this point I think the most expansion we're likely to see in the next decade or so (other than the NGs already on order) is more leasing.

yowza · Thu Nov 17, 2011 7:05 pm

This has been on the cards for some time. http://airceo.com/2010/03/westjet-the-next-move/

Quoting YXXMIKE (Reply 76):

If WS decided on the 787 or a similar widebody it could really do some neat routes, in particular it could offer up something like:

YXX - LGW or even crazier yet, YXX - LGW - DEL/BOM

I'm not sure that would work:
If you're focusing on YXX because of the demographics then you should be thinking of getting to ATQ more than DEL and BOM. The stopover makes things uglier still. Last but not least There are shorter ways to get from the Vancouver area to DEL/BOM. YVR-ICN-DEL is almost 1000nm less than YXX-LGW-DEL...

Quoting YXXMIKE (Reply 76):
I think in my opinion if WS decided to run a wide body they'll be highly sought after for an alliance.

Agreed.

Quoting connector4you (Reply 83):
That makes sense. Summer to Europe, Winter to South America or anywhere else really. Westjet B737 capacity grows fast and their existent codeshare agreements with various global airliners will bring in some additional $ 500 mil within the next five years. I'll say yeah it's a good time to lease a few A330-200 and try to spin them around before AC comes up with their own version of long haul - low cost.

Given that they are already leasing a 757 for winter ops from YYC to Hawaii this is distinct possibility.

YOWza

threepoint · Thu Nov 17, 2011 8:54 pm

Quoting YXXMIKE (Reply 81):
Do you know how many people from Alberta own property in and around YBL?

No, but it's not very many. The mass influx of Albertans has been down the road in the Comox Valley.

Quoting YXXMIKE (Reply 81):
Have you been to YBL during fishing season?

Many many times, and for weeks at a time.

Quoting YXXMIKE (Reply 81):
Have you seen all of the planes that come and go out of that airport?

Yes (see above). They're either B1900/Saab 340 routes from YVR or private corporate aircraft.

Quoting YXXMIKE (Reply 81):
Trust me on this one, there is a market for that area.

Not gonna bite, not in Campbell River. It's a completely different demographic than Courtenay/Comox. Which is well served by WestJet already.

jamincan · Thu Nov 17, 2011 11:23 pm

Keep the riff-raff out of Campbell River; I like it the way it is!

FWIW, I think that a hypothetical YXX-LGW-India routing would be more optimal simply b/c of the opportunity to pick up additional traffic b/w LGW-India. I'm not sure what the Indian expat community is like in S. Korea, but I'm guessing it's many times smaller than the British one.

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