Talk yesterday of 50% of QF staff gone in 12 months, if unions don't wake up.

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/n...ction/story-e6freooo-1226179998049

Is 50%, then surely the rest couldn't keep it going with QF's high costs.

Maybe it will all be Jetstar sooner than we think.

I honestly doubt that national carrier may go bust - it doesn't look good - surely someone will help Qantas float again.

However, someone on another thread mentioned that Jetstar does get more attention from Joyce.... (which is kinda true)

Quoting irshava (Reply 1): I honestly doubt that national carrier

It's not the national carrier, it's just Qantas.

Quoting JMM99 (Thread starter): Is 50%, then surely the rest couldn't keep it going with QF's high costs

If it's 50% gone it doesn't have high costs. The 50% left (IF it happens) would have to remain to satisfy the Sale of Qantas Act.
While I don't think it'll happen, they could be reduced to just SYD/MEL-SIN-LHR (LHR based crew), SYD/MEL-LAX & SYD-JNB, SYD-SCL (flying A380s). Everything else goes RedQ/JQ.

Gemuser

Quoting JMM99 (Reply 2): It's not the national carrier, it's just Qantas.

QF is Australia's national flag carrying airline... That's a fact...

Anyway, I do agree that if 50% is gone then it's basically the end of QF as we know it... BUT I don't think it will get to that point -- Fair Work Australia and the Federal Government will get involved long before the situation gets to that point. The economic blow would be enormous...

How troubling it is when one thinks just how weak this makes Oneworld.

Qantas, financial trouble and questionable future....
American, financial trouble and questionable future...
JAL, just out of Bankruptcy and still questionable future....

Lots of major decisions forthcoming for this group!

Quoting n839mh (Reply 5): Qantas, financial trouble and questionable future....

I wouldn't be suggesting Qantas has a questionable future. They have announced a decent profit. At the moment there is argy bargy going on between mgt and unions wihich is undoubtedly having short term financial pain but the future is not near as bleak as some would make out.

Quoting NTLDaz (Reply 6):
I wouldn't be suggesting Qantas has a questionable future.

Well... QF just grounded her entire Domestic and International fleet with immediate effect.... interesting times ahead.


K

Quoting NTLDaz (Reply 6): I wouldn't be suggesting Qantas has a questionable future. They have announced a decent profit. At the moment there is argy bargy going on between mgt and unions wihich is undoubtedly having short term financial pain but the future is not near as bleak as some would make out.

The profits were FF and domestic.... now grounding your whole fleet is pretty bleak and will force pax onto other carriers - ie Virgin...and when they fly on those carriers they may actually realise the DJ product has improved and may switch... that would effect FF loyalty and domesti pax numbers which is the profitable part of the business....

Very damaging to the brand.

Dammit..I'm booked to fly to ADL tomorrow....looks like that wont happen. @#$%

First report on BBC

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-15504838

Quoting BeakerLTN (Reply 10): Dammit..I'm booked to fly to ADL tomorrow....looks like that wont happen. @#$%

You might be OK, looks like the grounding starts Monday 8pm.

http://www.smh.com.au/travel/qantas-...ds-all-flights-20111029-1mpao.html

Quoting vaus77w (Reply 11): You might be OK, looks like the grounding starts Monday 8pm.

My understanding is that the grounding is immediate, but the lockout of staff starts Monday 8pm AEST.

Yeah, I agree QF is the national airline, and I doubt they'll go down the way of Ansett. After all, didn't (to some extent) QF cause Ansett's downfall?

These labor disputes at QF, would it be fair to say that AA union-members will do the same if a compromise isn't met?

Quoting vaus77w (Reply 11): You might be OK, looks like the grounding starts Monday 8pm.

As I understand it the lock out will start monday, but the grounding will start today?

Will the Australian government intervine?

Quoting vaus77w (Reply 11): You might be OK, looks like the grounding starts Monday 8pm.

The lock-out starts on Monday. The aircraft are already grounded, or headed home to be grounded.

mariner

Quoting anstar (Reply 8): Very damaging to the brand.

Yes very damaging to the brand but who is causing the damage ? That is for others to decide. If anyone seriously thinks Qantas is dead or it's future is suspect my opinion is they are deluded. Qantas will survive - maybe differently but there will be a Qantas. Not everyone wants to fly Jetstar ( and I don't have a prob with Jetstar - I'm in Newcastle and that is our best option ).

Alan Joyce needs to be sacked (and the whole board). He is deliberately trying to ruin QF I'm sure of it now. So he and his buddies can sell off Jetstar (made up of Qantas assets) and then turn around to the government with a skeleton QF and offer it take it or leave it styles.

Quoting SASDC8 (Reply 14): As I understand it the lock out will start monday, but the grounding will start today?

The grounding is effective immediately - with a lockout of staff from Monday.

One of the hardest things for Virgin Australia to get people to switch would be to get them onboard to see the product - QF are just handing them this opportunity.

Quoting NTLDaz (Reply 16): Yes very damaging to the brand but who is causing the damage ?

What I quote from Alan Joyce: "They are trashing our strategy and our brand" - http://www.smh.com.au/travel/travel-...-grounds-fleet-20111029-1mpgc.html

Their strategy was shot to begin with (oh, let's go and give everything to Jetstar) and that has tarnished their brand. This is just adding to the problems. But it goes to show where the root of the problem lies.

Qantas has excellent unions who have managed to negotiate their members out of jobs and paychecks.

Of course they are not the first union to do so and won't be the last.

I have read that the Qantas senior leadership will not be getting paid until this is resolved. I'm wondering if the unions' senior leaders will do the same for the sake of their membership?



I wish the best for all involved.

Quoting irshava (Reply 1): I honestly doubt that national carrier may go bust - it doesn't look good - surely someone will help Qantas float again.

Just like Swissair, Sabena or Pan Am? Just because an airline is perceived as a 'national carrier' does not mean it is immune from insolvency and liquidation.

The concept of 'national carrier' is pretty outdated in today's industry.

Quoting n839mh (Reply 5): How troubling it is when one thinks just how weak this makes Oneworld. Qantas, financial trouble and questionable future.... American, financial trouble and questionable future... JAL, just out of Bankruptcy and still questionable future.... Lots of major decisions forthcoming for this group!

Not to mention, the late Mexicana...

Quoting haynflyer (Reply 20): I have read that the Qantas senior leadership will not be getting paid until this is resolved.

Do you have a source for this?

Quoting haynflyer (Reply 20): I'm wondering if the unions' senior leaders will do the same for the sake of their membership?

Indeed it is common practice among Trade Unions that during a dispute, leadership receive either no income (or if strike pay is being paid from union reserves) the same strike pay as members. I cannot comment on this particular union however.

Quoting n839mh (Reply 5): Qantas, financial trouble and questionable future.... American, financial trouble and questionable future... JAL, just out of Bankruptcy and still questionable future.... Lots of major decisions forthcoming for this group!

Pretty ironic, isn't it? It hasn't been so long since Star was constantly mocked in this forum for being the alliance of the bankrupt, while oneworld was the alliance of the world class, financially robust, well managed airlines. What goes around comes around...

Quoting EDICHC (Reply 23): Do you have a source for this?

It is available quite publically across many news websites, Googling it brings it straight up.

"6.26pm: And the damage control begins...a Qantas spokesperson has said the airline's executive and board will not be paid during the lockout."

Source: http://www.news.com.au/travel/news/q...fleet/story-e6frfq80-1226180315331

Quoting planesailing (Reply 25): "6.26pm: And the damage control begins...a Qantas spokesperson has said the airline's executive and board will not be paid during the lockout."

Well AJ can just live off his other $4m or so in the mean time... Its a bit different for workers living paycheque to paycheque...

Maybe a merger in IAG?

Can't imagine QF being gone completely. If it did, VA (V-Australia) and DJ would have quite a gap to fill but they are capable of doing so.

[Edited 2011-10-29 10:41:37]

I am really worried that this could turn into the next Eastern Airlines scenario. I pray this does not happen, but to shut down like this, is really a risky move. While the focus is strictly on union issues, it affects the number one people... Their customers. Very sad situation unfolding here.  

Will Joyce be compared to the next Frank Lorenzo if the airline fails because of this?

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 29): Will Joyce be compared to the next Frank Lorenzo if the airline fails because of this?

Nope.

If QF goes away, he will have killed a carrier; Lorenzo saved Continental.

My feeling is that if Qantas survives, it will be a skeleton operation serving a few long-haul major cities such as LAX and LHR with a wide-body fleet of fewer than 30 aircraft, everything else will be Jetstar.

Quoting Squid (Reply 31): everything else will be Jetstar.

Just from casual, dispassionate observation, I get the feeling that is what Alan Joyce wants.

Quoting Squid (Reply 31): My feeling is that if Qantas survives, it will be a skeleton operation serving a few long-haul major cities such as LAX and LHR with a wide-body fleet of fewer than 30 aircraft, everything else will be Jetstar.

Completely agree - the A380 fleet (staff already on different arrangements) will be the only QF aircraft with everything else JQ, until JQ reaches a point where the aircraft can simply be repainted into QF colours one day. I have believed this for a long time, however the only problem that emerges is that Alan Joyce has decided to pull this stunt and cause what could be serious long-term reputational damage for the Qantas brand.

AJ is just the battering ram against the unions - hence why the Board are approving his performance etc. As soon as they are dealt with I'd say he'll resign, and it will be someone else's job to rebuild the QF brand one day.

A further problem out of all of this is that QF's loyal passengers are becomming less and less clear about what the long term customer experience on QF is intended to be. That's before they even try another airline. Personally, having never flown anything but QF out of Australia up to my last trip to Europe (chose CX out and QF home), I will be looking at expanding my horizons for my next trip (SQ both directions). I've tried to be loyal, but loyal ain't working anymore AJ.

As an QF fan, this is now good news! I was so hoping that I see an QF 787 on you tube or at LAX. If QF goes belly up, going to Imperial Hill at night, will not be the same.     

Quoting esdex (Reply 33): A further problem out of all of this is that QF's loyal passengers are becomming less and less clear about what the long term customer experience on QF is intended to be

A week ago I was a sworn Virgin hater. Now I have three booked flights on them. As this dragged on I was becoming more and more disillusioned with QF (both management and unions) and this - in a sense - has pushed me to the point where I want nothing to do with them

Quoting Squid (Reply 31): My feeling is that if Qantas survives, it will be a skeleton operation serving a few long-haul major cities such as LAX and LHR with a wide-body fleet of fewer than 30 aircraft, everything else will be Jetstar.

Internationally I think you could be right, just SYD/MEL-SIN-LHR, SYD/MEL-LAX & SYD-DFW, SYD-JNB, SYD-SCL, all A380s. Except not everything else will be Jetstar, because I believe RedQ or whatever its called will also be very, VERY important to the company.
Domestically, the QF brand will stay, the operating company may be JQ, but the airline will still be QF, otherwise there would be MAJOR problems with the Sale of Qantas Act, unless it gets amended, which I doubt.

Gemuser

This won't go on long.
My prediction. The government will have to step in and force them all to accept a 3% pay rise.
But the unions won't get what they're really after. Personally I don't think they give a shit about
the 3% pay rise. It's about they want a job security guarantee. They're not gonna get that.
Nobody has that in any industry. They have Zlich chance in hell of getting the government to enforce that...
it would set a very dangerous and powerful precedent that would scare foreign investment, encourage every other
union around the country to demand the same (and take equally drastic measures to get it) and would make a Prime
Minister who is already hugely unpopular look like she's nothing more than a union puppet.

The Labor party in Australia already has an image problem and it's tried in the last 20 years to say it isn't the
party of the 70s and it understands modern economics. If Julia Gillard enforced that one single provision... the entire
Labor party would trash their own economic credibility. They won't want that. Their is no reward for her in doing that, only a downside. She can force this to end without having to wear that kind of pain herself in the process. So given that... the fundamental reason the unions have pushed this, they're not going to get despite having a sympathetic government. This actually may be a move of Genius on AJ's part. He's no created a problem for the PM and she isn't gonna want to agree to what the unions want. She will just want this to very much go away.

Quoting Squid (Reply 31): My feeling is that if Qantas survives, it will be a skeleton operation serving a few long-haul major cities such as LAX and LHR with a wide-body fleet of fewer than 30 aircraft, everything else will be Jetstar.

I think the board plan is the maintain a QF domestic airline plus as you say a skeleton international operation. I agree maybe LAX, LHR and perhaps 1 Asia destination.

I dont see a major problem with this. Its the way they are going about it

Quoting qf002 (Reply 4): QF is Australia's national flag carrying airline... That's a fact...

Yeah, there definitely will still be QF. No I don't think we'll see the day SQ would buy over QF's international operations as much as they would want to- to gain the kangaroo route!

Quoting NTLDaz (Reply 6): I wouldn't be suggesting Qantas has a questionable future. They have announced a decent profit. At the moment there is argy bargy going on between mgt and unions wihich is undoubtedly having short term financial pain but the future is not near as bleak as some would make out.

I guess it remains to be seen how things unfold but grounding an entire airline is big, bigger in the long run. It may take years for the airline to fully recover from the damage to its reputation of having its fleet grounded

Quoting Lufthansa (Reply 37): This actually may be a move of Genius on AJ's part. He's no created a problem for the PM and she isn't gonna want to agree to what the unions want. She will just want this to very much go away.

How much power over this does she even have? .. Its not very much.

I have still not seen a compelling reason or rebuttal against AJs strategy, which is broadly offshoring and a shifting of capacity and focus to jetstar. I would think this would make sense to the majority of shareholders, and being a business they exist for their shareholders

The "National Carrier" debate is an interesting one. It can only have such a title if it exists primarily for serving the interest of the nation. Being a business this is not the case. Many of the arguments against AJs strategy seem to be along the lines of: preserving a national icon, saving jobs, maintaining a premium carrier image in the eyes of the world, etc. These are not, and should not be the goals of a commercial entity, (unless they clearly deliver a positive commercial outcome).

If Aussies really want an airline to represent them in this way, then it should be nationalized, and the Government can be accountable for any decisions made that are not commercially positive but are in "the national interest". This is true of QFs most significant international route competitors, (NZ, SQ, EK), and this does give those airlines some competitive advantage, particularly with pricing

Quoting kiwiinoz (Reply 41): I have still not seen a compelling reason or rebuttal against AJs strategy, which is broadly offshoring and a shifting of capacity and focus to jetstar. I would think this would make sense to the majority of shareholders, and being a business they exist for their shareholders The "National Carrier" debate is an interesting one. It can only have such a title if it exists primarily for serving the interest of the nation. Being a business this is not the case. Many of the arguments against AJs strategy seem to be along the lines of: preserving a national icon, saving jobs, maintaining a premium carrier image in the eyes of the world, etc. These are not, and should not be the goals of a commercial entity, (unless they clearly deliver a positive commercial outcome). If Aussies really want an airline to represent them in this way, then it should be nationalized, and the Government can be accountable for any decisions made that are not commercially positive but are in "the national interest". This is true of QFs most significant international route competitors, (NZ, SQ, EK), and this does give those airlines some competitive advantage, particularly with pricing

  

Best comments I've read in any of the threads.

mariner

Quoting infinit (Reply 39): Quoting NTLDaz (Reply 6): I wouldn't be suggesting Qantas has a questionable future. They have announced a decent profit. At the moment there is argy bargy going on between mgt and unions wihich is undoubtedly having short term financial pain but the future is not near as bleak as some would make out. I guess it remains to be seen how things unfold but grounding an entire airline is big, bigger in the long run. It may take years for the airline to fully recover from the damage to its reputation of having its fleet grounded

Funnily enough an awful lot has changed since I posted.

Quoting jetfuel (Reply 38): I dont see a major problem with this. Its the way they are going about it

In a way, I agree with you. Most people who know a bit about my posting history here know I'm not the most pro-union person. With that said, I do believe that employee's deserve to be paid fairly, according to what the market will bear, and make a living wage. But the unions do a dis-service to themselves sometimes when their demands get too great. And fact is, Qantas is facing some very tough low cost competition, not just domestically, or even from other Australian airlines, they are getting it on all fronts from other low cost airlines in Asia, as well as from Emirates and other large Middle Eastern airlines that can keep their labor costs lower while offer a similar or even superior product. Do these airlines have an advantage, ABSOLUTELY, but then it's up to the Qantas employee's to face this fact, and work with management to come to cost effective solutions. Would this lead to a race to the bottom? Not necessarily in my opinion, but it might mean that the senior people will have to make do with lower wages and more relaxed work-rules as well as accept that there is no guarantee that there will not be layoffs.

Look at what their demands resulted in. Now instead of keeping Qantas in-tact, Qantas will most likely strip down to a small, jumbo jet airline, serving only major long haul markets such as LAX, LHR, SIN, NRT, and maybe a few other cities internationally and domestically to where there is some prestige involved, and hand everything else to Jetstar. This should be a good example to ALL airline employees. And it is sad. I'm not sitting here cheering on the management while they screw their employee's. No...But what could very well happen here could happen at many airlines. For years, the major airlines in the U.S. have been trying to hand more flying on bigger AC to their regional carriers and for years, the unions have been fighting it. Instead, I believe that the unions should come to some sort of agreement, and insist that if the regionals are going to take on more flying, that they set up a flow through agreement in order to preserve jobs for more people.

Well that's how I see this whole mess anyway.

Quoting Zkpilot (Reply 17): Alan Joyce needs to be sacked (and the whole board). He is deliberately trying to ruin QF

..of course the unions are totally blameless.  

Quoting Bthebest (Reply 27): Maybe a merger in IAG?

Nope. Qantas sale act prevents that.

Qantas aren't going out of business any time soon. I case anyone hadn't noticed, they're still making a profit and they've got $3bn+ in the bank.

Quoting bill142 (Reply 46): I case anyone hadn't noticed, they're still making a profit and they've got 2.12€bn+ in the bank.

Perhaps not in the short term, but how much damage to the company's brand image remains to be seen with it's subsequent medium to long term effects on market share. The potential for loss of regular custom in the future as a result of this weekend alone must be very damaging, never mind the direct losses incurred.

Quoting QFFlyer (Reply 45): Quoting Zkpilot (Reply 17): Alan Joyce needs to be sacked (and the whole board). He is deliberately trying to ruin QF ..of course the unions are totally blameless.

The unions aren't trying to turn QF into JQ.
The unions aren't in bed with private equity to lease aircraft from Geoff Dixons company back pocket style nor are they trying to ground the airline.
Yes QF is a high cost business... part of the reason for this is that instead of growing the company to spread those costs out management have been shrinking it.
Also part of the reason why QF is a high cost operation is that it spends a lot of its own money supporting JQ operations back of house and poor accounting practises.

Quoting flyorski (Reply 40): How much power over this does she even have? .. Its not very much.

Practically limitless...

Fair Work Australia Act

Section 431 Ministerial declaration terminating industrial action

(1) The Minister may make a declaration, in writing, terminating protected industrial action for a proposed enterprise agreement if the Minister is satisfied that:

(a) the industrial action is being engaged in, or is threatened, impending or probable; and

(b) the industrial action is threatening, or would threaten:

(i) to endanger the life, the personal safety or health, or the welfare, of the population or a part of it; or

(ii) to cause significant damage to the Australian economy or an important part of it.


Given that air travel is VITAL to Australia, both for links to the rest of the world as an island, and for internal travel given the vast distances between major cities, the "Minister" (read, the Government) could have forced a resolution of the dispute.