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Question: Potential Changes To Existing Alliances?

Sun Oct 30, 2011 3:27 am

1. Outside of a merger, e.g., CO/UA, what is the likelihood of an airline in one alliance leaving and joining another?

2. Which airline(s) is likely to defect due to not obtaining the desired benefits of the existing alliance? And to which alliance would they go?

3. For a.net speculators and armchair CEOs, if each alliance could trade out one airline for another what would the trades be and why?

4. For a.net speculators and armchair CEOs, if each airline could kick out a "loser" which airline would it be?

[Edited 2011-10-29 20:33:12]
 
aa1818
Posts: 1556
Joined: Sat Feb 04, 2006 2:03 am

RE: Question: Potential Changes To Existing Alliances?

Sun Oct 30, 2011 3:43 am

I'd love to see Air China jump ship and join oneworld given their close relationship with CX.

I'd also love to see AM leave Sky Team and join oneworld, given the fact that MX is gone for good.

Copa might be a candidate to jump ship back to Sky Team, if they find it difficult to collaborate with AV-TA under the Star Alliance umbrella.

I would love to see South African Airways jump ship to one[b]world...buying out the Comair franchise.

BMI should also leave the Star Alliance/ LH grouping and join the [b]one
world/ BA/ IAG grouping.

I think oneworld would love to trade Malev for a more effective Eastern Europe partner- perhaps Austrian or ??

JJ from Star to oneworld, TP from Star to oneworld- those are also my wishes.


That's it for my speculation on who will jump ship/ trade alliances.

AA1818
“The moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease for ever to be able to do it.” J.M. Barrie (Peter Pan)
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: Question: Potential Changes To Existing Alliances?

Sun Oct 30, 2011 4:58 am

Some people are suggesting US may want to switch to oneworld. Take that for what it's worth, just talk. I makes sense in some aspects since UA and US have a large DC presence, and some feel US is dwarfed by UA, and might find better use in oneworld with AA. And people assume since DL/NW and UA/CO merged, AA/US *HAVE* to merge (which I think is bull.) But I thought I'd post that for discussion sake, I don't really agree with this scenario
 
Qazar
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Joined: Sat May 20, 2006 4:18 am

RE: Question: Potential Changes To Existing Alliances?

Sun Oct 30, 2011 2:40 pm

Quoting aa1818 (Reply 1):
aa1818 From Trinidad and Tobago, joined Feb 2006, 3255 posts, RR: 8

I don't know about the others, but I get a feeling you are a OneWold amateur... So basically you wish all the airlines in the World to leave their respective Alliances to join OW.... hmmmmm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 2):
Some people are suggesting US may want to switch to oneworld

Although your comments make a lot of sense, it seems that as time goes by JetBlue seems to be getting closer to OneWorld - especially with recent speculation that LH might be looking at selling its stake in B6.... If B6 joins that OW, it will become too crowded for US to join as well for they'd be trading 4 quarters for a dollar. I do agree however that US is dwarfed in Star Alliance by UA/CO, but leaving Star to join Skyteam or OneWorld will have the same effect.


To answer the thread's main questions:

1) Likelihood of an airline defection due to market circumstances: The main one that comes to mind is JJ leaving Star for OW after its merger with LAN and the obligation that one of the 2 airlines must leave its alliance for the other's.

2) Likelihood of an airline defection due to dissatisfaction with present alliance: US Airways comes to mind because of the scope that UA/CO have taken within the alliance dwarfing US by effect.

3) Alliance trading one airline for another: If I were STAR I would probably want to thank US Airways and send them on their way (probably have them joining OW as a result) and instead inviting JetBlue instead... My statement is purely based on airline service though and has nothing to do with business sense. From a strategic perspective however, US probably offers STAR access to more markets than B6 would (thinking of US hubs in Phoenix, Charlotte, and Philadelphia).

4) Same answer as 3)

Regards.
 
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LOWS
Posts: 1335
Joined: Sun Oct 23, 2011 5:37 am

RE: Question: Potential Changes To Existing Alliances?

Sun Oct 30, 2011 3:06 pm

Quoting aa1818 (Reply 1):
I think oneworld would love to trade Malev for a more effective Eastern Europe partner- perhaps Austrian or ??

That will happen shortly after I am elected Federal Chancellor, which is to say, it will never, ever, ever happen. As a member of the LH group, and because of the deep economic ties between Austria and Germany, there is absolutely no chance OS will leave Star, unless LH does. The interest of the airline and of the people it serves is well served as a member of the LH group and as a member of Star.

I feel bad for US, they kind of are the odd man out in Star in the US, but I have always held an irrational hope they would merge with UA when the CO merger is complete.

OW needs to get its European house in order. MA is awful, having flown them before. Maybe they could get LO on board, though they are heavily entangled in LH with Miles&More.

LHR, MAD and HEL are just too far out of the way for intra-European connections.

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