Lufthansa To Discontinue Calgary

MAH4546 · Fri Nov 04, 2011 7:11 am

Lufthansa will discontinue service to Calgary, Alberta. The last flight will operate from Calgary on February 4. Flights removed from GDS.

kevin · Fri Nov 04, 2011 7:43 am

Very interesting move. I fly this route a lot and most of the time the flight is overbooked in both cabins. it's a shame that YYC will loose a European carrier, may be someone else can come and fill the gap.

airevents · Fri Nov 04, 2011 8:05 am

Wow, service to YYC started not so long ago. But the fact that they usually sent 2-class A340s (without First Class) shows that this was maybe not such a high yield business destination after all? Sad to see YYC go...

kl911 · Fri Nov 04, 2011 9:57 am

Bad for LH, but good news for KLM I guess. Does anyone know if that flight is doing well?

BA744PHX · Fri Nov 04, 2011 12:55 pm

Hopefully this means a return to PHX finally

but reality check I know it wont happen

flyb · Fri Nov 04, 2011 1:43 pm

To bad for Calgary for sure.

WestJet747 · Fri Nov 04, 2011 2:11 pm

Quoting kl911 (Reply 3):
Bad for LH, but good news for KLM I guess

BA will certainly benefit as well.

But this seems like a very odd move based on kevin's statement....

c172akula · Fri Nov 04, 2011 2:51 pm

I flew this service once a year (in January) and can also speak to the aircraft being very full (including business class). I think my last flight economy seemed almost completely full and business was at about 80% capacity.

I'm really bummed to see it go, as I much preferred the timing of this flight over the AC flight to FRA later in the day.

I wonder if this is LH and AC streamlining their operations and we could see something happen again in the future?

kl911 · Fri Nov 04, 2011 3:07 pm

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 6):
But this seems like a very odd move based on kevin's statement....

Quoting C172Akula (Reply 7):
I flew this service once a year (in January) and can also speak to the aircraft being very full (including business class). I think my last flight economy seemed almost completely full and business was at about 80% capacity.

Loadfactor doesnt say anything about yields though. Might as well have been discount fares or mileage tickets.

flyb · Fri Nov 04, 2011 3:12 pm

My gut tells me it is an alignment move more than anything. How was AC load factors due to this route??

Ferminios · Fri Nov 04, 2011 3:21 pm

I think it's odd as well, but YYC is a low yielding market indeed that has seen a tremendous increase in seats over the last few years to Europe with KL, LH and BA having arrived in the last 5 years. It's still odd I think since KL is retaining 5-weekly service this winter and will go 6-weekly next summer as it stands now.

Considering that this leaves quite a big gap in the FRA-YYC market any chance of the A333 returning on the route? Also, considering that Condor operated twice weekly last summer with a 763, maybe they will increase their service as well?

Thenoflyzone · Fri Nov 04, 2011 3:27 pm

Quoting kl911 (Reply 8):
Loadfactor doesnt say anything about yields though. Might as well have been discount fares or mileage tickets.

The folks over at YEG must be smiling right about now !

On a sidenote, YYC's international passenger numbers so far for 2011 have been down by 2.1%, with July (-5.3%) and Aug (-8.5%) being the worst ones.

I think all the new players at YYC (LH, BA, KL) found out that the market isn't as good as they had hoped for.

BA initially put a 4 class B772 on the route, whereas now it operates a 3 class 763 year round. KL wanted to operate an additional frequency last summer, but cancelled those plans. All of this shows that YYC isn't performing as hoped for these airlines.

Obivously YYC cannot handle all these big boys at once. One had to go, and LH is the best one to go for the people who use YYC, as AC is still there to offer the service.

As i was saying last year, the folks at YYC will find the new international wing pretty empty once completed.

Thenoflyzone

[Edited 2011-11-04 08:42:59]

BE77 · Fri Nov 04, 2011 3:47 pm

It wouldn't surprise me if LH's yield was overall a bit lower than AC or BA (not sure what to think about KLM). This is mostly speculation, but the YYC local oil and money (redundant I know) biz crowd is generally going to be heading to LHR and will pick AC for the ff perqs or BA if they are WS supporters and can't bear the thought buying a seat on AC.
The business connection is not nearly as strong to Germany, and there is a lot of German tourists in the mountain towns...so perhaps a lot of LH traffic is lower yielding.

point2point · Fri Nov 04, 2011 3:47 pm

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 11):
as AC is still there to offer the service.

Isn't there also some seasonal kick-in with DE and TS as well here on this route? If so, that would mean that at some times, there are 4 airlines serving this route.

But with AC still on the route, isn't there also some sort of sharing here? Can/do AC/LH share revenue here?

flyb · Fri Nov 04, 2011 3:51 pm

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 11):
The folks over at YEG must be smiling right about now !

Why would they care? It's not like LH is going to start a route there, or AC for that matter.

Quoting point2point (Reply 13):
But with AC still on the route, isn't there also some sort of sharing here? Can/do AC/LH share revenue here?

That is what I'm thinking.

Thenoflyzone · Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:08 pm

Quoting flyb (Reply 14):
Why would they care? It's not like LH is going to start a route there, or AC for that matter.

I hear ya, but i would imagine some Edmontonians don't mind seeing a -1 for YYC....

Quoting point2point (Reply 13):
But with AC still on the route, isn't there also some sort of sharing here? Can/do AC/LH share revenue here?

I'm not a 100% sure, but i believe so.

Thenoflyzone

c172akula · Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:11 pm

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 15):
I hear ya, but i would imagine some Edmontonians don't mind seeing a -1 for YYC....

Some in YEG may be happy to see it, but unless the -1 for YYC is offset by a +1 for YEG then it is really a loss for Alberta.

C010T3 · Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:15 pm

These slots are just perfect to make FRA-GIG daily... (at least the southbound segment)

Thenoflyzone · Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:26 pm

Quoting Ferminios (Reply 10):
Also, considering that Condor operated twice weekly last summer with a 763, maybe they will increase their service as well?

Condor has been expanding like crazy lately, with new (or resumption of ) services to FLL, SJU, YYZ, BWI, GOI, HKT.

With only 10 B763s in the fleet and all these new routes, i doubt they will increase YYC to daily. As said above, if anything, AC should pick up the slack on this matter.

Thenoflyzone

EddieDude · Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:37 pm

Quoting Ferminios (Reply 10):
but YYC is a low yielding market

Is it? Lots of oil and gas.

Ferminios · Fri Nov 04, 2011 7:00 pm

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 19):
Is it? Lots of oil and gas.

That's true, however most seats on flights to YYC (at least from Europe) are filled with tourists heading to the Rockies or heading to family. That's why LH is deploying an A343, it has the highest ratio of Y seats vs J seats. I have also been on a few KL flights YYC-AMS where Y was so overbooked that they were using the rear section of J class (before L/R2 door) for economy pax with the only few J pax being completely up front. In most cases, there were also still a few seats left in there. This also explains why KL was utilizing MD-11s to YYC over the summer.

[Edited 2011-11-04 12:01:20]

[Edited 2011-11-04 12:01:37]

lightsaber · Fri Nov 04, 2011 7:04 pm

Quoting Ferminios (Reply 10):
but YYC is a low yielding market indeed that has seen a tremendous increase in seats over the last few years to Europe with KL, LH and BA having arrived in the last 5 years. It's still odd I think since KL is retaining 5-weekly service this winter and will go 6-weekly next summer as it stands now.

Will KL grow to 7 weekly with the LH departure?

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 19):
Is it? Lots of oil and gas.

But if the competition grew that much... How many planes will the oil and gas employees fill per day? If the answer is not enough... Then the yeild will be poor.

Lightsaber

Ferminios · Fri Nov 04, 2011 7:36 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 21):
Will KL grow to 7 weekly with the LH departure?

Tough call. KL clearly stated that they saw potential to eventually increase YYC to daily year-round back when they launched the route in 2009 . However, adding in the economic uncertainty I don't see them doing it unless they really believe that they can capture traffic from LH leaving the market. To my impression AMS-YYC is a strong O&D market (I don't have numbers to back it up) so I think it will rather be AC here that can benefit, they downgraded from an A333 to a 763 over the summer, so hopefully that enables them to roll back that change.

EddieDude · Fri Nov 04, 2011 7:45 pm

Quoting Ferminios (Reply 20):
That's true, however most seats on flights to YYC (at least from Europe) are filled with tourists heading to the Rockies or heading to family.

Thanks for the information Ferminios.

Honza · Fri Nov 04, 2011 11:16 pm

Quoting airevents (Reply 2):
Wow, service to YYC started not so long ago.

..I flew to Calgary with LH back in 2000 and I was 15 so in my measures it is quite long time ago

Whiteguy · Fri Nov 04, 2011 11:33 pm

Quoting Honza (Reply 24):
..I flew to Calgary with LH back in 2000 and I was 15 so in my measures it is quite long time ago

LH didn't fly to YYC in 2000!

Viscount724 · Fri Nov 04, 2011 11:42 pm

Quoting flyb (Reply 14):
Quoting point2point (Reply 13):
But with AC still on the route, isn't there also some sort of sharing here? Can/do AC/LH share revenue here?

That is what I'm thinking.

AC and LH have had a revenue-sharing joint venture for quite a few years, a decade or so I believe.

With the weak economic situation in much of Europe (and likely to get worse before it gets better) it's not surprising carriers are cutting back capacity. I expect there will be much more of this type of action over the next few months.

cyeg66 · Fri Nov 04, 2011 11:44 pm

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 26):
With the weak economic situation in much of Europe (and likely to get worse before it gets better) it's not surprising carriers are cutting back capacity. I expect there will be much more of this type of action over the next few months.

^ And no airport will be immune.... Interesting times ahead.

MarcoPoloWorld · Sat Nov 05, 2011 12:59 am

Seems like Calgary is somewhat over-served to Europe, and under-served (as in hardly at all) to Asia. So maybe this wasn't entirely unexpected.

Thenoflyzone · Sat Nov 05, 2011 2:21 am

Quoting MarcoPoloWorld (Reply 28):
Seems like Calgary is somewhat over-served to Europe, and under-served (as in hardly at all) to Asia. So maybe this wasn't entirely unexpected

With all the hype about the new intl expansion plans and with the passenger numbers on a sharp rise in the last 5 years or so, it was somewhat unexpected on my end.

Speaking of LH in Canada, when they decided to leave the YUL market way back when, they returned in 2005 with service from MUC, and not FRA.

Is that scenario plausible in the case of YYC? This way, the flight wont compete directly with AC's service.

Either way, I'm confident LH will give it a try once again at YYC in a few years, once the international market solidifies.

Thenoflyzone

[Edited 2011-11-04 19:23:22]

c172akula · Sat Nov 05, 2011 2:22 am

Quoting MarcoPoloWorld (Reply 28):
Seems like Calgary is somewhat over-served to Europe, and under-served (as in hardly at all) to Asia. So maybe this wasn't entirely unexpected.

Definitely a lot of choice to Europe with AC, BA, and KL (not too mention Air Transat and Thomas Cook). As for Asia right now we are getting 3x weekly service to NRT with AC, originally they planned to go daily once they had approval, but in light of the earthquake things have taken a step back in progress.

threepoint · Sat Nov 05, 2011 5:08 am

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 11):

Obivously YYC cannot handle all these big boys at once.

I said pretty much the same thing a year ago and was vilified on this forum for being so 'anti-Calgary'. There is a definite repetitive pattern to many markets, and the major Alberta cities typify the boom & bust cycle that plays out so predictably. While overall YYC passenger numbers may be on the rise, yields are what makes the airlines money. It's a bit disingenuous to be enthused about whopping percentage increases in int'l pax numbers by stuffing a Thomas Cook plane to the gills with people paying $449 for a European package holiday, or when adding a 3x weekly flight to Japan results in double digit capacity gains.
Whether by the price of oil, Euro financial worries, Asian natural disasters or a butterfly flapping its wings in Persia, there will always be times where it's simply not viable to continue airline service to many 2nd and 3rd tier markets.
I trust YYC will see the eventual return of more international service.

Ferminios · Sat Nov 05, 2011 7:32 am

Quoting threepoint (Reply 31):
I said pretty much the same thing a year ago and was vilified on this forum for being so 'anti-Calgary'.

Try making such comments in a MIA thread

I however can't agree more with you. The YYC market will need to take a little step back to enable further growth and I think that this is defintely not the last time we'll see LH and YYC.

usdcaguy · Sat Nov 05, 2011 10:05 am

Quoting kl911 (Reply 3):
Bad for LH, but good news for KLM I guess. Does anyone know if that flight is doing well?

If a flight within the DL/AF/KL network is scheduled for this winter, it's "doing well", or at least there is hope for it.

I think this story is more about AC/LH wanting to rationalize the amount of capacity to FRA more than what KL is able to get out of this, although there is bound to be ample opportunity for them to grow.

wilco737 · Sat Nov 05, 2011 11:40 am

That is interesting. I can still find the FRA-YYC-FRA flight as LH494 throughout July 2012... It always says 343 on that route all the way from January to July 2012.
I checked in the LH system and there are even already booked seats on some flight... Strange.

wilco737

MAH4546 · Sat Nov 05, 2011 12:28 pm

Quoting wilco737 (Reply 34):
That is interesting. I can still find the FRA-YYC-FRA flight as LH494 throughout July 2012... It always says 343 on that route all the way from January to July 2012.
I checked in the LH system and there are even already booked seats on some flight... Strange.

Discontinued flights remain in booking systems until passengers are reaccomodated. If you try to make a new booking, you won't be able to.

wilco737 · Sat Nov 05, 2011 12:32 pm

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 35):
Discontinued flights remain in booking systems until passengers are reaccomodated. If you try to make a new booking, you won't be able to.

Yes, that makes sense. But even within the LH system (not www.lufthansa.com) it is still available and I thought it should be axed within LH first. But maybe even that is delayed as well.

wilco737

flyyul · Sat Nov 05, 2011 1:08 pm

I hope this only strengthens the argument of the potentially consequences of opening the skies for EK/QR/EY (name your subsidized middle east carriers here)

LipeGIG · Sat Nov 05, 2011 3:39 pm

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 17):
These slots are just perfect to make FRA-GIG daily... (at least the southbound segment)

It will happen next year.

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 19):
Is it? Lots of oil and gas.

Quoting Ferminios (Reply 20):
That's true, however most seats on flights to YYC (at least from Europe) are filled with tourists heading to the Rockies or heading to family.

I would say here that it is a matter of Germany isn't such a key market for oil & gas. Compared to UK (Aberdeen), the ties on oil & gas are not that big. A oil market is in general high yield, but more among the specific key markets (UK - Aberdeen/London, US - Houston, Canada - Calgary, Brazil - Rio de Janeiro/Macae, Norway - Stavenger/Oslo , and a few others). Some of these markets have not only oil (Houston is a key medical destination, strong every-kind-of-energy market), a larger market and diversified activities.
KL probably is a key player for the oil & gas industry, more than LH.
Further, there are different oil markets. Russia produces more than any of the above markets, but the challenges are more on sea exploration that generates a huge chain of suppliers and service providers. So it is more likely to see more demand from/to Norway than Russia in terms of oil & gas.

stylo777 · Sat Nov 05, 2011 5:08 pm

if the yields are low, they will put the aircraft elsewhere; however, the advantage of LH in this case is that they will keep on making money from this route through their A++ JV with AC. thats probably one of the strongest deciding factors when closing a station especially in North America.

DavidYYC · Sat Nov 05, 2011 8:26 pm

I too am disappointed and puzzled. Those flights always seemed full, not only in Y but also in J.

I never thought (and am surprised if anyone actually does) that FRA or Germany is in itself a destination for most of the passengers. Quite the opposite, most are onward passengers to mid-east, Russia and Kazakhstan, Africa and such places.

With the revenue sharing agreement between AC and LH on this route I wonder if there is 'more to this then meets the eye'? Or perhaps they were not always that full?

Oh well.

threepoint · Sat Nov 05, 2011 8:37 pm

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 38):
I would say here that it is a matter of Germany isn't such a key market for oil & gas. Compared to UK (Aberdeen), the ties on oil & gas are not that big.

Nobody's going TO Germany for oil & gas, they're flying THROUGH Germany to other destinations for oil & gas (and a thousand other reasons). I believe LH's website states that 80% of its Canada-Germany passengers are connecting beyond FRA.

c172akula · Sat Nov 05, 2011 8:43 pm

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 29):
Speaking of LH in Canada, when they decided to leave the YUL market way back when, they returned in 2005 with service from MUC, and not FRA.

Is that scenario plausible in the case of YYC? This way, the flight wont compete directly with AC's service.

That's something to hope for, I think the only service YYC has had to MUC has been with Air Transat.

Whiteguy · Sat Nov 05, 2011 10:32 pm

Quoting C172Akula (Reply 42):
That's something to hope for, I think the only service YYC has had to MUC has been with Air Transat.

One summer AC actually had a seasonal flight to MUC. I think it was late 90s or early 2000s. Using a B762, there was also a ZRH flight.

Viscount724 · Sat Nov 05, 2011 10:43 pm

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 29):
Either way, I'm confident LH will give it a try once again at YYC in a few years, once the international market solidifies.

This is the 2nd time LH has pulled out of YYC. Their initial service sometime in the late 1970s or early '80s only lasted a year or two. It was an enroute stop to YVR using DC-10-30s, about twice a week. I flew LH once FRA-YVR during that period and recall the YYC stop. When they dropped YYC they maintained YVR which then became nonstop.

c172akula · Sat Nov 05, 2011 10:44 pm

Must have been in the 90's, I don't recall seeing that flight in the 2000's when I was flight instructing at YYC.

MAH4546 · Sat Nov 05, 2011 10:46 pm

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 29):
Is that scenario plausible in the case of YYC? This way, the flight wont compete directly with AC's service.

AC and LH have ATI. They do not compete as is.

c172akula · Sat Nov 05, 2011 10:58 pm

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 44):
This is the 2nd time LH has pulled out of YYC. Their initial service sometime in the late 1970s or early '80s only lasted a year or two. It was an enroute stop to YVR using DC-10-30s, about twice a week. I flew LH once FRA-YVR during that period and recall the YYC stop. When they dropped YYC they maintained YVR which then became nonstop.

I also remember when KL served YYC before pulling out, and I think the same thing happened with BA. What I would give for the YYC market to just have enough stability to let these guys stick around, instead of showing up for a few years, leaving, and coming back again!

JoeCanuck · Sat Nov 05, 2011 11:26 pm

I think if there is enough demand, AC will pick it up when they finally get their new planes.

Whiteguy · Sat Nov 05, 2011 11:27 pm

Quoting C172Akula (Reply 45):
Must have been in the 90's, I don't recall seeing that flight in the 2000's when I was flight instructing at YYC.

Yeah I think it was either 97, 98, or 99. There was also Osaka in 97 or 98 with a A340.

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