Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
simpsondude
Topic Author
Posts: 47
Joined: Wed May 26, 2010 5:17 pm

Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 1:28 pm

Having noticed that BA just received its first 747-800 F, I decided to have a look at the orders for the 747-800. The last time I checked, the only notable order was with Lufthansa.

Having checked again, it seems that the orders haven't exactly increased very much.
When you compare the order totals to the B787 and A350, the B747-800 orders seem pitiful.

Why have airlines not bothered to purchase the new 747?
I'm thinking of major 747-400 operators such as BA, Cathy Pacific and Air-France/KLM.
 
skinny
Posts: 39
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 9:51 am

Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 1:31 pm

A380 777W maybe thats the reason they just dont need it.
 
CXfirst
Posts: 3022
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2007 8:13 pm

Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 1:39 pm

No matter what one says, the 747 is an old platform. Efficiency is up, but I don't think there is much more that can be done beyond the 748. Also, the 748F seems to have not reached its targets initially.

When you see the A380, it's still in its first version, one would think efficiency can be improved down the line (and have a future like the 747), might as well get the new boy with a lot of potential than sticking with the dying breed.

Some airlines will see the need for something between the 77W and the A380, but I'm not so sure how vital filling that gap is, and it seems many airlines are agreeing (so far). There definitely is a gap, but worth having another aircraft type?

-CXfirst
 
tdscanuck
Posts: 8573
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 7:25 am

Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 1:41 pm

Quoting simpsondude (Thread starter):
When you compare the order totals to the B787 and A350, the B747-800 orders seem pitiful.

The number of airframes you need always goes down as the size goes up...even if the 747-8 (it's not the -800) were brand new you wouldn't expect it to get as many sales as the 787 or A350.

The closest competitor is the A380, currently at 236 orders compared to the 747-8's 106. The A380 has been officially launched for 11 years, the 747-8 for 6...the order rate for VLA's is about equal between the two OEM's.

Quoting simpsondude (Thread starter):
Why have airlines not bothered to purchase the new 747?

I suspect many are waiting...the backlog isn't that large relative to the production rate so, unlike the 787/A350/A320NEO/737MAX, there's no real incentive to order one until you've actually seen it in service and decided what you like.

Quoting simpsondude (Thread starter):
I'm thinking of major 747-400 operators such as BA, Cathy Pacific and Air-France/KLM.

Cathay hasn't gone either way and may still be waiting...AF/KLM appears to have decided so split that size catagory between the 777 (below 747-8) and A380 (above). BA did order the 747-8.

Tom.
 
PC12Fan
Posts: 2135
Joined: Sat Jan 27, 2007 11:50 pm

Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 1:43 pm

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 3):
BA did order the 747-8.



But only the freighter version, correct?
Just when I think you've said the stupidest thing ever, you keep talkin'!
 
User avatar
American 767
Posts: 4543
Joined: Wed May 19, 1999 7:27 am

Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 1:59 pm

Quoting simpsondude (Thread starter):
the only notable order was with Lufthansa.

Korean Air also. Both in passenger and freighter version.

Quoting PC12Fan (Reply 4):
But only the freighter version, correct?

Yes only in the freighter version. They don't want it in passenger version, however you never know...if they decide they need an aircraft to fill the gap between the 77W and the A380 once all the 744s are gone sometimes next decade. But as of now it doesn't look like they are going to buy it.
Same with Cathay Pacific, they ordered it only in the freighter version. And same with Emirates.

Ben Soriano
Ben Soriano
 
ba319-131
Posts: 8313
Joined: Sat Jan 13, 2001 1:27 pm

Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 2:01 pm

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 3):
BA did order the 747-8.

- No, these are leased from Atlas.

Quoting PC12Fan (Reply 4):
But only the freighter version, correct?

- Correct.
111 732 733 734 735 736 73G 738 739,7M8 BBJ 741 742 743 744 752 753 762 763 764 772 77L 773 77W L15 D10 D30 D40 AB3 AB6 312 313 318 319 320 20N 321 21N 332 333 342 343 345 346 359 351 388 CS1 CS3 I86 154 SSJ CRJ CR7 CR9 CRK 145 170 175 220
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 27359
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 2:04 pm

There is a 15 frame order for Hong Kong Airlines, but it (likely) won't be officially signed until the next US-China State Visit so Boeing has not yet listed it on their website.
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 5673
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 3:35 pm

I suspect the main reason is that it does not offer enough of an economic gain over the 77W. It is bigger, more expensive both to own and operate, and must bring in quite a bit more revenue to be worthwhile. The 77W is so good that probably most airlines do not see the need to take the risk of going larger, and those that do can go directly to the A380. The niche where the right airplane for the job is the 748i is fairly small, and can be ignored at will. I still believe it will get orders, but eh 748F is going to be the bigger seller, and its only competition is the 77F (and converted 744's)
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20915
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 3:55 pm

I expect further orders for the 748I, but it will take in service data. Why buy now when in 2 years one could buy with far more information.

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 3):
I suspect many are waiting...the backlog isn't that large relative to the production rate so, unlike the 787/A350/A320NEO/737MAX, there's no real incentive to order one until you've actually seen it in service and decided what you like.

I expect this is also a HUGE issue. Boeing should be able to produce 25 +/-5 748s per year. More if the 787 'surge' work is moved to Charlotte instead of the ex-767 production line. (To other readers: all those production lines at Everett were built to make 747s...) As already noted, the 748F is below spec. Customers can wait to see how quickly Boeing removes weight and GE improves engine efficiency. In particular, the current economic situation has many airlines doing a 'wait and see.'

Airlines are also taking a 'wait and see' to see if there will be a 777NG and the performance of the 787 and A350.

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 3):
The A380 has been officially launched for 11 years, the 747-8 for 6...the order rate for VLA's is about equal between the two OEM's.

Good point.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 8):
The 77W is so good that probably most airlines do not see the need to take the risk of going larger, and those that do can go directly to the A380.

The 748I is in a pickle being sized between two excellent airframes. I expect sales to increase once the PIPs are in place, but not beforehand. One issue for the 748I is that many of the big 747 operators have begun A380 service (or will): LH, AF, QF, KE, and in the future BA (among others).

Quoting Stitch (Reply 7):
There is a 15 frame order for Hong Kong Airlines, but it (likely) won't be officially signed until the next US-China State Visit so Boeing has not yet listed it on their website.

I'm hearing rumors of one other order, but I have no clue who.

Lightsaber
I cannot wait to get vaccinated to live again! Warning: I simulated that it takes 50%+ vaccinated to protect the vaccinated and 75%+ vaccinated to protect the vac-hesitant.
 
User avatar
American 767
Posts: 4543
Joined: Wed May 19, 1999 7:27 am

Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 4:00 pm

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 8):
but eh 748F is going to be the bigger seller, and its only competition is the 77F

I wouldn't call that a competition because they both come from the same manufacturer.

Airbus was considering making an A380 in freighter version, if Fed Ex and UPS had kept their orders, that would have been the 748F opponent. If in the future Airbus proposes the A350XWB as a freighter, then that one will be competition as well with regards to Boeing.
Ben Soriano
 
CXfirst
Posts: 3022
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2007 8:13 pm

Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 4:05 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 9):
I expect further orders for the 748I, but it will take in service data. Why buy now when in 2 years one could buy with far more information.

Especially when no one else is ordering it. Airlines can wait for data and still get an early slot. With the 787/A350/A380 airlines couldn't do that, as waiting would result in many years of backorders.

However, I do not see the passenger version becoming a huge success, as the 777 is big enough for most, and carriers needing larger will go for the A380, but finding it inefficient to have a 3rd size large airplane.

-CXfirst
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 4:42 pm

CX is waiting for data on the B748I before making a decision as well:

Flightglobal.com has this:

"Cathay Pacific will make a decision on an order for new jumbo aircraft only after evaluating the performance of Boeing's 747-8 Intercontinental, which is due to enter into service in 2012."

"The company has in the past said it would make a "substantial order" of 10-15 aircraft if it goes ahead. "

"The Oneworld member has said before that a stretched version of the A380 would be ideal, given that it would be able to carry more cargo - a key component of Cathay's business."

To me, ostensibly it seems CX really want the A389 but might go for the B748I if "the numbers are good".
"Up the Irons!"
 
Flighty
Posts: 9963
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 3:07 am

Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 4:51 pm

Ordering a 747 is a long commitment. Either the airline or leasing firm is committing to fly it for 20+ years, in order to pay itself off. It may be a good performer today. But would you rather commit to a quad, or a large twin... the quad can make a bit more revenue, but you are committing to burn that extra fuel for years, rain or shine. The payoff vs a 777 is uncertain. In purchasing one, you are buying into the optimistic depreciation schedule.
 
User avatar
kanban
Posts: 4026
Joined: Sun Jan 06, 2008 1:00 am

Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 5:03 pm

Quoting simpsondude (Thread starter):
Why have airlines not bothered to purchase the new 747?


First it's a 747-8 not -800, second did you check the past threads on this forum, we seem to have this issue come up about every 6 months. Third Boeing pushed the freighter because the market needed it. The passenger version, although costing a lot to certify, is incidental to the sales plan outside the BBJ sales.
 
BoeingGuy
Posts: 6337
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:34 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 9):
More if the 787 'surge' work is moved to Charlotte instead of the ex-767 production line.

That's Charleston, not Charlotte.

And as another poster pointed out there is no such thing as a 747-800. Boeing has gone to single digit minor model identifiers now. It's the 747-8. Same with the 787, 737MAX and any possible future 777s.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20915
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:43 pm

Quoting CXfirst (Reply 11):
Especially when no one else is ordering it. Airlines can wait for data and still get an early slot. With the 787/A350/A380 airlines couldn't do that, as waiting would result in many years of backorders.

100% agree. As I noted, Boing could easily double production. If demand warranted, (which it won't, but let's pretend) Boeing could quadruple the 748 production rate! No worry for airlines...

Quoting CXfirst (Reply 11):
However, I do not see the passenger version becoming a huge success,

I think it could barely outsell the freight (as new build). Until there is a very high MTOW A389, the 748I has better 'combi-economics' than the A388. By 'combi-economics' I mean able to carry full pax and significant cargo (volume and weight). Right now the 77W is the world's prefered 'combi.' For many routes, I could see the 748I having better economics.

Quoting jacobin777 (Reply 12):
"Cathay Pacific will make a decision on an order for new jumbo aircraft only after evaluating the performance of Boeing's 747-8 Intercontinental, which is due to enter into service in 2012."

"The company has in the past said it would make a "substantial order" of 10-15 aircraft if it goes ahead. "

If CX orders 10-15, I would expect a later 'top off' order.

I personally think TK could be a sleeper larger 748I win. If AirAsiaX wasn't so much in the Airbus camp, I would consider them having potential too. (The 748I is best for hauling higher density payloads, such as AirAsiaX's high density seating.)

Quoting jacobin777 (Reply 12):
"The Oneworld member has said before that a stretched version of the A380 would be ideal, given that it would be able to carry more cargo - a key component of Cathay's business."

I'm not surprised. Stretches always improve the cargo volume to passenger deck ratio.    CX will need the cargo.

Without the A389, there is a larger market niche for the 748I due to the A388s tiny cargo (after baggage) capacity. The 748I will still have a market for airlnes with high Y pax densities.

Lightsaber
I cannot wait to get vaccinated to live again! Warning: I simulated that it takes 50%+ vaccinated to protect the vaccinated and 75%+ vaccinated to protect the vac-hesitant.
 
mogandoCI
Posts: 1247
Joined: Thu Jun 04, 2009 2:39 pm

Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:43 pm

it's the right plane at the wrong time ... if it came out in late 90s, it would've sold like hot cakes, but thanks to 77W, no one needs it.

Based on sales of 388 and 77W, i'd go on record to say that 77W has cannibalized 748 to a larger degree than 388.

In the good old days, the 744 was practically every single long haul route of the majors. Now half of the 388 sold are used to create a global monopoly centered around DXB, but the 77W is the workhorse plowing the trunks (sans a few oddballs like LH or IB)
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 5673
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 7:31 pm

Quoting American 767 (Reply 10):

I wouldn't call that a competition because they both come from the same manufacturer.

It is competition in the sense that it is the only other new-build freighter available with anything close to its capacity. If someone wants a new freighter with as much capacity as possible those are the two choices. The fact that they are made by the same manufacturer is not the issue, since we are talking about why 748's aren't selling more. The question is not why is Boeing not selling more large planes; because they are selling them like gangbusters. The problem for some A-nutters is that they are selling 777's instead of 748's.

Quoting kanban (Reply 14):
Third Boeing pushed the freighter because the market needed it. The passenger version, although costing a lot to certify, is incidental to the sales plan outside the BBJ sales.

I thought that when the 748 was launched Boeing said that they expected 2/3 of the sales to be the Intercontinental. I think they were expecting most 744 operators to replace them with 748's; this has not happened. They are replacing them with 77W's and/or A380's; fortunately for Boeing, demand for the 748F seems to be fairly strong.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
User avatar
ER757
Posts: 3904
Joined: Tue May 10, 2005 10:16 am

Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 7:39 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 7):
There is a 15 frame order for Hong Kong Airlines, but it (likely) won't be officially signed until the next US-China State Visit so Boeing has not yet listed it on their website.

Don't forget the order for five from Air China - falls into the same category I'd think.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 16):
I personally think TK could be a sleeper larger 748I win.

Agree with you here - they were supposed to announce a VLA order earlier in the year but haven't. If/when they do, I have a hunch it will be the 748-i. I have no inside knowledge, just a gut feeling.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 27359
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 7:53 pm

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 17):
it's the right plane at the wrong time ... if it came out in late 90s, it would've sold like hot cakes, but thanks to 77W, no one needs it.

I think the fate of the 747-500X and 747-600X - launched in mid-1996 - after the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis have shown us that the 747-8 likely would not have fared too well if it has been launched a decade earlier.

IMO, once Boeing announced the 777-300X study and Airbus became serious with the A3XX, the 747's future was as a freighter, not a passenger carrier.
 
astuteman
Posts: 7199
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 8:58 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 9):
I expect further orders for the 748I, but it will take in service data. Why buy now when in 2 years one could buy with far more information.

I must admit that, like you, I think any notions of "writing off" the current sales of 747-8 are WAY premature.
Like the A380, it has been bedevilled by delays and uncertainty.
A look at the 787's sales record since it got delayed clearly shows the impact this has.
I personally think that, again like the A380, we need to wait until supply is a bit more secure

Quoting kanban (Reply 14):
Third Boeing pushed the freighter because the market needed it. The passenger version, although costing a lot to certify, is incidental to the sales plan outside the BBJ sales.

Boeing's press releases at launch stated that 2/3 of sales were expected to be for the passenger version

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 18):
I thought that when the 748 was launched Boeing said that they expected 2/3 of the sales to be the Intercontinental.

They did   

Rgds
 
User avatar
notaxonrotax
Posts: 1301
Joined: Wed Mar 16, 2011 2:29 pm

Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 9:36 pm

Ignoring the fact that AF has chosen A380 as future VLA, would KLM somehow convince the board to purchase 15 748-i's on the sly?
I mean, KLM must be one of the more 747-faithful companies out there!

They love combi's but I believe those have become a no go.

No Tax On Rotax
For anybody that happens to be wondering:"yes, owning your own aircraft is a 100% worth it!"
 
User avatar
PW100
Posts: 4123
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 9:17 pm

Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 9:42 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 16):
. (The 748I is best for hauling higher density payloads, such as AirAsiaX's high density seating

As opposed to the A380 . . . ? 
8000nm range, poor cargo volume . . .  Perhaps just a little too much capacity for them. Wouldn't be too bad though, if the trip cost is only marginally higher. Note, I do not know the trip cost difference, just noting.

I think the biggest trump card Boeing has on the 747-8I is delivery slots. If the economy picks up, Boeing can supply the 747 within say two years, while you would be waiting for 4-5 years for reasonable airframe numbers on the 380.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 16):
I think it could barely outsell the freight (as new build). Until there is a very high MTOW A389, the 748I has better 'combi-economics' than the A388. By 'combi-economics' I mean able to carry full pax and significant cargo (volume and weight). Right now the 77W is the world's prefered 'combi.' For many routes, I could see the 748I having better economics

I keep dreaming that KLM will realise this as well . . . they practically mastered the combi concept. Still lots of 744 Combi's at KLM, what better to replace them with another 747 . . . [an A388 Combi, you see, I keep dreaming!]


PW100
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
tommytoyz
Posts: 1195
Joined: Thu Jan 18, 2007 9:08 am

RE: Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 11:14 pm

Quoting CXfirst (Reply 2):
When you see the A380, it's still in its first version, one would think efficiency can be improved down the line (and have a future like the 747), might as well get the new boy with a lot of potential than sticking with the dying breed.

I don't think this is much of an issue. When you buy a plane, you get what you pay for, not future technology. You do not get the future improvements, unless you buy more of them, which anyone can do too. So when you evaluate the products you are going to buy, you do so on the basis of what you will receive. Isn't that how you buy say a computer? Only when you plan to buy more planes of that type in the future and future improvements are pretty much guaranteed, only then does this play a role.

An A380-900 is not guaranteed. And improvements to the 747 can still come down the line with continuous improvements to the GE engines. I'm sure both will improve in the future. I think the improvements to the A380-800 and 747-8 will be similar.

I think the 777, 787, A350 and A380 all compete with the 747 is enough ways to keep orders low, not the fact she's an old lady. Same for the A380.
 
Caryjack
Posts: 416
Joined: Tue May 08, 2007 9:45 am

RE: Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Fri Nov 04, 2011 11:19 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 20):
I think the fate of the 747-500X and 747-600X - launched in mid-1996 - after the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis have shown us that the 747-8 likely would not have fared too well if it has been launched a decade earlier.

   It is my understand that it was advances developed during the 787 program which could be applied to the 747 that finally allowed the launch of the B-748.

Quoting American 767 (Reply 10):
Airbus was considering making an A380 in freighter version, if Fed Ex and UPS had kept their orders, that would have been the 748F opponent.

Both Fed Ex and UPS had solid business plans for the A-380F (and still could) but it was Airbus who pulled the rug out. You are correct in that the Airbus would have been a challenge to the B-748F but that's just a matter of time.   

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 16):
By 'combi-economics' I mean able to carry full pax and significant cargo (volume and weight). Right now the 77W is the world's prefered 'combi.'
Quoting notaxonrotax (Reply 22):
They love combi's but I believe those have become a no go.

I believe you're right. I also think combis were done in by the fixed bulkhead requirement which added weight and limited flexibility. It looks to me like the "combi" talked about on this thread is simply to compare passenger to cargo ratios and not the true bulkheaded airliners with cargo and pax on the same deck.

Quoting PW100 (Reply 23):
[an A388 Combi, you see, I keep dreaming!]

...well, there's a dreamer on every thread.   
Thanks,
Cary
 
User avatar
kanban
Posts: 4026
Joined: Sun Jan 06, 2008 1:00 am

RE: Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Sat Nov 05, 2011 12:03 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 21):
Quoting kanban (Reply 14):
Third Boeing pushed the freighter because the market needed it. The passenger version, although costing a lot to certify, is incidental to the sales plan outside the BBJ sales.

Boeing's press releases at launch stated that 2/3 of sales were expected to be for the passenger version

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 18):
I thought that when the 748 was launched Boeing said that they expected 2/3 of the sales to be the Intercontinental.

They did



Always take what the PR guys say with a grain of salt.. passenger planes appeal to the imagination and the press.. freighters are workhorses in the shadows.. They've know for several years that the ratio will likely be 2 "F"'s for every "I"
 
IL96M
Posts: 120
Joined: Tue Jun 14, 2005 5:14 pm

RE: Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Sat Nov 05, 2011 2:20 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 9):
I'm hearing rumors of one other order, but I have no clue who.

That would be Air China.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20915
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

RE: Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Sat Nov 05, 2011 3:14 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 21):
I personally think that, again like the A380, we need to wait until supply is a bit more secure

I see we are in agreement.   

Quoting PW100 (Reply 23):
As opposed to the A380 . . . ?

My point was with cargo.   Since I was discussing AirAsiaX, I have no idea how important cargo is for their revenue stream. If it is not important, than I made a mistake and I should have put them in the A380 camp. If cargo is important (which it should be, considering their geographic location), then the 748I will be better.

Quoting PW100 (Reply 23):
I think the biggest trump card Boeing has on the 747-8I is delivery slots.

Exactly! Boeing could be producing 50/year in four years.    No, I don't smoke anything, why are you asking?  
Quoting PW100 (Reply 23):
I keep dreaming that KLM will realise this as well . . . they practically mastered the combi concept. Still lots of 744 Combi's at KLM, what better to replace them with another 747 . . . [an A388 Combi, you see, I keep dreaming!]

I think the 77W is effectively filling that role.    I'd love to see an A388 Combi, but I think we'll see a FedEx A388F first.  
Quoting Caryjack (Reply 25):
It looks to me like the "combi" talked about on this thread is simply to compare passenger to cargo ratios and not the true bulkheaded airliners with cargo and pax on the same deck.

That was my point, hence why I put 'combi' in quotes.   The fixed bulkhead requirement is going to make a true new combi... rare. I think Boeing engineered a 'good enough' work around for the cargo market. The 748I will carry very similar cargo, after full pax, as the 77W.

Lightsaber
I cannot wait to get vaccinated to live again! Warning: I simulated that it takes 50%+ vaccinated to protect the vaccinated and 75%+ vaccinated to protect the vac-hesitant.
 
astuteman
Posts: 7199
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Sat Nov 05, 2011 4:24 am

Quoting kanban (Reply 26):
They've know for several years that the ratio will likely be 2 "F"'s for every "I"

I think we've all pretty much known this for several years, but it was clearly not the premise on which the programme was launched.

Not that it actually matters.. A sale is a sale

Rgds
 
tdscanuck
Posts: 8573
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 7:25 am

RE: Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Sat Nov 05, 2011 5:04 am

Quoting Caryjack (Reply 25):
It is my understand that it was advances developed during the 787 program which could be applied to the 747 that finally allowed the launch of the B-748.

Joe Sutter (original chief engineer of the 747) flat out stated as much...it was the engine. There was no engine for the 747-8 without the 787. The 777 engines were too big, the 767 engines were too small, and the 747-8 market wasn't big enough to justify developing a new engine. But the 787 begat the GEnx, which was exactly what the 747-8 needed.

Tom.
 
airfrnt
Posts: 2175
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2004 2:05 am

RE: Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Sat Nov 05, 2011 5:12 am

Because the market for VLA's have been cannibalized by ETOPS. VLA's are not much more then a pissing match between A&B at this point to see who can take the least amount of collateral damage on these programs.
 
Oykie
Posts: 1986
Joined: Sat Jan 07, 2006 9:21 am

RE: Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Sat Nov 05, 2011 2:35 pm

Quoting notaxonrotax (Reply 22):
Ignoring the fact that AF has chosen A380 as future VLA, would KLM somehow convince the board to purchase 15 748-i's on the sly?
I mean, KLM must be one of the more 747-faithful companies out there!

They love combi's but I believe those have become a no go.



It will be interesting to see how KL replaces their 744. They do enjoy a lot of cargo, but the 77W is probably a safer bet. Unless the PIP from the 747-8I gives it an advantage over the 77W in relation to CASM

Quoting Caryjack (Reply 25):
...well, there's a dreamer on every thread.



Since we are dreaming a bit in this thread, it reminds me that I not long ago stumbled across Kaktus Digital (A.net member) Boeing NLA pictures. It looks like a 777 on steroids.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_-Oqf_vOmanM/SlSHkeZzbjI/AAAAAAAAAGY/D0mQEZT5T-Q/s1600/United_airlines_NLA_V02.JPG

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_-Oqf_vOmanM/SlSHkIS_F2I/AAAAAAAAAGQ/vgDdwQlL5kQ/s1600/United_airlines_NLA_V01.JPG


From http://kaktusdigital.blogspot.com/20...07/blast-from-past-boeing-nla.html
Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 5673
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

RE: Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Sat Nov 05, 2011 3:42 pm

Quoting Caryjack (Reply 25):

Both Fed Ex and UPS had solid business plans for the A-380F (and still could) but it was Airbus who pulled the rug out. You are correct in that the Airbus would have been a challenge to the B-748F but that's just a matter of time.

But they were the only ones that did. I can't see Airbus going to all the expense of certifying the A380F just for FedEx and UPS. Unless some other operators want it in enough numbers to justify it I think the only A380F's you will see will be conversions. And that might just suit FedEx and UPS, as there are operators who now have A380's that prefer to keep young fleets (specifically EK), and hence there may be some available for conversion long before the factory offers it, especially if they launch the A389 (which I do not see a business case for, but it has more demand than the A380F.)
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4520
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

RE: Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Sat Nov 05, 2011 4:37 pm

Quoting airfrnt (Reply 31):
Because the market for VLA's have been cannibalized by ETOPS. VLA's are not much more then a pissing match between A&B at this point to see who can take the least amount of collateral damage on these programs.

Cynical. Funny. Largely true!

ps - and the airlines and freight carriers do need a few dozen VLAs every year.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
328JET
Posts: 348
Joined: Sat Jun 19, 2010 3:16 pm

RE: Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Sat Nov 05, 2011 5:11 pm

Quoting airfrnt (Reply 31):

Name one ETOPS airplane that has equal CASM like the B748I or A380...
 
astuteman
Posts: 7199
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Sat Nov 05, 2011 5:20 pm

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 33):
And that might just suit FedEx and UPS, as there are operators who now have A380's that prefer to keep young fleets (specifically EK), and hence there may be some available for conversion long before the factory offers it,

Fedex made it clear that pax conversions had considerable disadvantages to a factory build A380F, for example, being both heavier in OEW, and much lighter in MTOW.
David Sutton at the time predicted 200+ A380 (both new-build and conversions) over the next 20 years.

Quoting frmrCapCadet (Reply 34):
Cynical. Funny. Largely true!

Well, one out of three ain't bad.......

Rgds
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 5673
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

RE: Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Sat Nov 05, 2011 6:15 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 36):
Fedex made it clear that pax conversions had considerable disadvantages to a factory build A380F, for example, being both heavier in OEW, and much lighter in MTOW.

This is undoubtedly true, but it does not increase the demand for factory A380F's, which I see as the big problem. From what I have read for general freight the A380F offers very little (if any) economic advantage over the 748F and has the huge disadvantages of having to load the upper deck and not being able to load it full at normal density. The question for Fedex and UPS is whether conversions will suit their businesses at all; I suspect that, absent the availability of new-build A380F's that they will be the next-best thing. Unless they decide to go for 748F's, which I understand would work less well than A380F's due to the fact that they would cube out before they reach max weight.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
bmacleod
Posts: 2990
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2001 3:10 am

RE: Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Sat Nov 05, 2011 6:19 pm

I think the state of the global economy has a lot to do with it. When all or most of the fear and uncertainty fades, you will see 747-8i orders pick up....
"What good are wings without the courage to fly?" - Atticus
 
Burkhard
Posts: 1916
Joined: Fri Nov 17, 2006 9:34 pm

RE: Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Sat Nov 05, 2011 7:33 pm

There is a Boeing model that is near in capacity, the B77W, which is a known quantity, and there has been a huge order hype for that bird. If Boeing numbers are true, the 748I will be more efficent than the 77W and many airlines will regret to downfgrade from 744 to 77W instead of the slight upgrade to 748I - but it looks like they don't believe Boeings numbers and we still have to wait at least a year until we get word from LH about the truth.
 
Caryjack
Posts: 416
Joined: Tue May 08, 2007 9:45 am

RE: Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Sat Nov 05, 2011 9:58 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 28):
The fixed bulkhead requirement is going to make a true new combi... rare. I think Boeing engineered a 'good enough' work around for the cargo market. The 748I will carry very similar cargo, after full pax, as the 77W.

   Boeing certanly has done 'good enough' in the cargo market. This from their site: "Boeing is the undisputed air cargo market leader, providing over 90 percent of the total worldwide dedicated freighter capacity. " They also claim that half the worlds air cargo is carried on some type of B-747F.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 28):
That was my point, hence why I put 'combi' in quotes.

Clear as a bell, hence why I quoted you.   

Quoting astuteman (Reply 29):


I think we've all pretty much known this for several years, but it was clearly not the premise on which the programme was launched.

Not that it actually matters.. A sale is a sale


It seems to me that this was most peoples fall back position: The 8i may not do well but the 8F certainly will. So far it seems to be holding.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 33):
But they were the only ones that did. I can't see Airbus going to all the expense of certifying the A380F just for FedEx and UPS.


Could be but those 2 did order what, 20 frames? I don't think the A-380F was on the market long enough to say it wouldn't sell.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 33):
I think the only A380F's you will see will be conversions. And that might just suit FedEx and UPS, as there are operators who now have A380's that prefer to keep young fleets (specifically EK), and hence there may be some available for conversion long before the factory offers it

Nothing wrong here. The freight operators churn the market and Airbus sells conversion kits and new passenger airliners. It's a win win!  

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 37):
From what I have read for general freight the A380F offers very little (if any) economic advantage over the 748F

Did Fed Ex and UPS have general freight in mind for their A-380Fs? I understood they were after lighter bulk cargo such as electronic devices, CDs, etc. They won't be hauling oil field equipment, that's for sure.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 37):
Unless they decide to go for 748F's, which I understand would work less well than A380F's due to the fact that they would cube out before they reach max weight.

I thought this was the point of buying the big guy, maximum volume for cargo lighter than general freight.

Thanks,
Cary
 
OldAeroGuy
Posts: 3928
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 6:50 am

RE: Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Sat Nov 05, 2011 10:37 pm

Quoting 328JET (Reply 35):
Name one ETOPS airplane that has equal CASM like the B748I or A380...

7773ER is very close and the 787-9 and A350-900/1000 should be superior.
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4520
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

RE: Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Sun Nov 06, 2011 4:48 am

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 41):
7773ER is very close and the 787-9 and A350-900/1000 should be superior.

Are the numbers actually that close? I had assumed that the advantages of a smaller plane, more P2P, more frequency and better RASM could close the gap and possibly/likely be more profitable.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
qfa787380
Posts: 178
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2010 10:49 pm

RE: Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Sun Nov 06, 2011 5:13 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 21):
I must admit that, like you, I think any notions of "writing off" the current sales of 747-8 are WAY premature.
Like the A380, it has been bedevilled by delays and uncertainty.

No matter how you spin it the VLA market is small and will continue to be so. Most 380 orders were many years ago now and small top ups and small commitments from a couple of new carriers have kept the order book barely ticking along. I will say that EK is the obvious exception here and how sad would the 380 be without 90 orders from EK.
A stretched 777X and if Airbus get their sh*t together with the 350-1000, will further erode the VLA market.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 21):
A look at the 787's sales record since it got delayed clearly shows the impact this has.

Of course that's got nothing to do with the huge backlog for 787s, where 1 ordered today may not be delivered until 2018 or so.
 
astuteman
Posts: 7199
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Sun Nov 06, 2011 9:26 am

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 41):
7773ER is very close and the 787-9 and A350-900/1000 should be superior.

To an A380? Not a prayer.
Even Airbus admit that the A350-1000 (and only the -1000) would have to be configured at 10-across to match the A380's CASM.
And where A380's have replaced 773ER's, operators have quoted operating cost gains of the order of 20% for a like capacity.
If what you said was true, there'd be no point in the larger aircraft at all

Quoting qfa787380 (Reply 43):
No matter how you spin it the VLA market is small and will continue to be so

No matter how much you want to spin it, there's no way of determining that at present with any confidence

Quoting qfa787380 (Reply 43):
Of course that's got nothing to do with the huge backlog for 787s, where 1 ordered today may not be delivered until 2018 or so.

How to refute my point and then remake it again in one sentence..... Nice  

Rgds
 
OldAeroGuy
Posts: 3928
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 6:50 am

RE: Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Mon Nov 07, 2011 4:27 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 44):
Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 41):
7773ER is very close and the 787-9 and A350-900/1000 should be superior.

To an A380? Not a prayer.

Airbus also claims that the A350-1000 at 9 A/B will have a 25% lower CASM than the 777-300ER. If the A380 were superior to the A350-1000 and both were as much lower relative to the 777-300ER as Airbus claims, then the sales picture of both Airbus products would be much better than indicated today, regardless of their later availability.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 44):
If what you said was true, there'd be no point in the larger aircraft at all

Good point. Let's see how it plays out. So far the A380 backlog does not appear to be showing significant growth.

[Edited 2011-11-07 09:15:04]
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
astuteman
Posts: 7199
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Mon Nov 07, 2011 6:31 pm

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 45):
Airbus also claims that the A350-1000 at 9 A/B will have a 25% lower CASM than the 777-300ER

Maybe. But a comparison to a Boeing product, I'd take with a pinch of salt.

Whereas they have absolutely no reason to spin the A350/A380 comparison, particularly when it was in promotion of the A350....

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 45):
So far the A380 backlog does not appear to be showing significant

It's backlog has fared a lot better than the 787's has in the last 4 years...
Doesn't say much for the 787's CASM, if that's how we measure it, does it?

Rgds
 
User avatar
kanban
Posts: 4026
Joined: Sun Jan 06, 2008 1:00 am

RE: Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Mon Nov 07, 2011 6:40 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 46):
Doesn't say much for the 787's CASM, if that's how we measure it, does it?


maybe it says that CASM isn't as big a driver as we would like to believe..

Anyway, I take all the PR figures for both un flown designs and initial production planes with a serious grain of salt. Both manufactures will continue to tweak their products, once certified, to the point that they will exceed initial delivery numbers and probably the PR numbers as well. However it makes an interesting discussion while we wait.
 
astuteman
Posts: 7199
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Mon Nov 07, 2011 6:54 pm

Quoting kanban (Reply 47):
maybe it says that CASM isn't as big a driver as we would like to believe..

It says a lot of things, including that.

Rgds
 
iceberg210
Posts: 352
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 12:11 pm

RE: Why So Few B747-8 Orders?

Mon Nov 07, 2011 7:16 pm

Quoting kanban (Reply 47):


maybe it says that CASM isn't as big a driver as we would like to believe..

Bingo.

The key to understanding an airline's purchases in aircraft is what aircraft if best for the job. But by best for the job that includes, purchase price, commonality, fleet flexibility, airport infrastructure, etc etc etc etc...

If you wanted to start listing markets that have enough demand for an A380 (500+ passengers per day let's say) there are plenty of those. However how many of those are right for an A380? Just cause you can fill it, and fly it, doesn't mean it's the optimal aircraft.

The 747 benefited from lack of competition at the time, and that's not really just about 'passenger count' either. A lot of what made the 747 successful was that you wanted a cargo carrying aircraft? Your best bet was the 747, you want a long range aircraft? Your best bet was the 747. You wanted a high capacity aircraft? Your best bet was the 747. As time went on and other aircraft whether it be the DC10, L1011, 767, A300, 777, A330 etc etc etc many of the things that the 747 was your only answer in were no longer cases where that was the optimal aircraft. You need a good cargo carrier? Well the 777F can do that too.. You need range? Take the 777-300ER. As the airplane market has expanded so have the options, and now each airlines have so many choices in their fleets, that they don't need to always resort to a VLA just because it's the only aircraft that can carry the cargo, or fly the long routes, or do this, or do that... Remember when the 747 came along the closest thing that was to it was the 707 and Dc8. (later the DC10, and L1011, but those lacked the range of the 747 initially) So if those aircraft didn't fit your needs it was 747 or nothing. Airline's options are so diverse these days because the niches that used to not be big enough to support a model of aircraft are large enough to support the development costs (ie 777LR, A346, etc...).

The market for VLA for the sake of being VLA I don't think has ever been big, and continues to not be. But the problem now is that you have two aircraft fighting over just the VLA market, instead of one that had that, as well as the market for long range and cargo as well. Will the VLA market grow? Surely, but I doubt that the A380 will ever or at least anytime in the next few decades sell more copies than the 747 has, mainly due to the change in market. Even long after the 747 has been taken out of production, the A380 will have much catching up to do as it did not benefit from the beneficial market conditions that the 747 did.
Erik Berg
“Little by little, we advance with each turn. That's how a drill works!”

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos