Australian Aviation Thread #56

TN486 · Mon Nov 14, 2011 12:02 pm

Good evening. In Australian Aviation Thread 55 (by TN486 Oct 23 2011 in Civil Aviation) we discussed the following:

CZ inaugurates new PER services.
QF:
- obtain approval from Singapore Eco Dev Board for a premium airline in Singapore.
- ground entire fleet temporarily to industrial disputes.
- reconfigurered 744 flights comence 17/10.
- photos released on new sky interior in 738's.
- A380 to commence SYD-HKG-SYD mid Jan 2012.
SKYTRANS propose daily flights from TWB to SYD, Roma and Gladstone Jan 2012.
CARGOLUX return to SYD with a weekly flight.
VN topurchase 70% of JQ Pacific not owned by QF.
FJ to purchase 3 new A332s in 2013.
SQ retrofitted (SR) series 77Es to fly into PER over the summer.
AIR PACIFIC first flight 73H DQ FJM arrives BNE 31 Oct.
HU to cancel SYD services 13 Feb 2012.
AIR AUSTRALIA (ex Strategic) release details of new livery
VA:
- to switch terminals at LAX.
- not exercising option of 6th 77W.
- 777s being repainted in the Virgin Aust livery.
CX to return to some A343 ops to BNE.
QF and AA JBA approved by the DOT.

787 visit due in Australia this week (SYD and MEL).
Please feel free to continue discussions here.

CXfirst · Mon Nov 14, 2011 12:51 pm

(from old thread)

Quoting qf002 (Reply 218):
Well looking at the seat counts it would appear that they are reducing J and increasing Y. I guess summer travelers are probably the key reason (especially if they've done the same thing in the past...)

Interesting that CX are doing that BNE, while SQ at PER are doing the opposite by introducing the refitted 777-200's back, which have an increase in J-class, while a decrease in Y-class. Although the CX decision seems to make more sense, with holiday travelers coming for the Australian summer.

-CXfirst

NZ107 · Mon Nov 14, 2011 9:52 pm

BOE 001 (787) departed AKL on time, bound for SYD - ETA 1100 LT.

Solent · Mon Nov 14, 2011 10:55 pm

777's must be a good aircraft for Emirates as they are buying more. Why can't someone at QF take the dummy out of their mouth and admit they would work for the Pacific and other routes. Why do QF think they can't make a profit from this aircraft when so many others can. Maybe QF international could make a profit if they bought a number of 777's. I know the 787 is late and they have 330's but there are a number of routes they could make a profit on. Even BA fly them here.

Need to take out the dummy or get rid of the dummies.

tayser · Mon Nov 14, 2011 11:24 pm

Quoting NZ107 (Reply 2):
BOE 001 (787) departed AKL on time, bound for SYD - ETA 1100 LT.

just shown up on flightradar24.com

speaking of, flightradar24 need to create a new widget for 787s!

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

fiscal · Mon Nov 14, 2011 11:54 pm

Quoting SOLENT (Reply 3):
777's must be a good aircraft for Emirates as they are buying more. Why can't someone at QF take the dummy out of their mouth and admit they would work for the Pacific and other routes. Why do QF think they can't make a profit from this aircraft when so many others can. Maybe QF international could make a profit if they bought a number of 777's. I know the 787 is late and they have 330's but there are a number of routes they could make a profit on. Even BA fly them here.

Need to take out the dummy or get rid of the dummies.

Hi SOLENT,

This has been discussed many times before, but for a recent explanation from Qantas itself -

http://www.aph.gov.au/hansard/senate/commttee/s428.pdf

mariner · Tue Nov 15, 2011 2:24 am

Air Australia's website and booking engine is up and running:

http://www.airaustralia.com/

Everything appears to be in good order, although there are a couple of minor snafus.

mariner

byronicle6 · Tue Nov 15, 2011 6:04 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 6):
Air Australia's website and booking engine is up and running:

http://www.airaustralia.com/

Nice Website! i like it
Simple design with the green, grey and white and easy to navigate

Solent · Tue Nov 15, 2011 6:34 am

Thanks fiscal. I actually watched Little Lord Joyce on TV live at the enquiry and also have read all the many 777 episodes here. I really think the board including Joyce and James the weak made a decision years ago that they can't admit they were wrong. I know the A380 is better performer in certain aspects. This is despite the fact that the 777 in its latest guises does beat the 747 on the same criteria that they use for the A380, and also the HGW 330 is a very good aircraft . The fact is QF has lost market share and is losing money internationally. Maybe they could have expanded their market with 777's and made a profit and then sold the 777's as a large amount of 787's come on line. The conversion from 777 to 787 is according to Boeing a small period of time.

I really think the inflexibility of the QF board to deal with the international market is why EK and others fly so many 777's into our country. It is embarrassing to hear QF say that they are unable to make money internationally when they have made so many decisions that limit their growth. Maybe Joyce could have made money in QF colours to SFO, and many other destinations. Aussies may have then placed their butts on the seats, because they are avalable.

mariner · Tue Nov 15, 2011 6:36 am

Meanwhile, Tiger isn't happy, having reported a $20 million loss. That';s not surprising because of the grounding, but the CEO doesn't see how they can make money on such a limited number of flights:

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news...-million-in-q2-20111115-1ngs1.html

"Tiger Airways says it is unable to be profitable in Australia when limited to just 22 daily flights a day, under restrictions imposed after the forced grounding of the airline's fleet earlier this year.

Singapore-based Tiger said its Australian flying business suffered a $S27.2 million ($A20.70 million) operating loss in the three months to September 30, a substantial deterioration from the $S600,000 loss in the prior corresponding period."

So I doubt it will be too happy about Air Australia's introductory fares, either. I priced both airlines for the same day in December and Tiger was $40 more - at $109. I assume Tiger will drop to match - maybe? - but that won't help.

I dunno. I'm all in favour of anyone giving it a go, but I'm struggling to see a happy future for Tiger Australia, not with fuel at these prices.

Air Australia doesn't actually need to make money on BNE-MEL - Tiger does, at least with its present flight limits.

And Tiger Singapore isn't too happy:

"The news was not much better at Tiger's Singapore base, which reported a second quarter operating loss of $S12 million, a turnaround from the $S6.8 million operating profit in the prior corresponding period, as high fuel costs and lower load factors hit hard.

Overall, the airline group suffered an operating loss of $S41.2 million in the second quarter, compared with a $S9.6 million profit in the same quarter a year ago.

Tiger said it expected to post a "significant net loss" in the current year due to its troubles in Australia and exposure to higher and volatile jet fuel prices."

mariner

mariner · Tue Nov 15, 2011 6:41 am

Quoting SOLENT (Reply 8):
The fact is QF has lost market share and is losing money internationally.

But is it losing market share?:

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/n...ircle/story-e6frea8c-1226192015258

"Qantas holds on to air share as rivals circle

Official figures released yesterday show Qantas carried 18.7 per cent of all overseas arrivals and departures, despite losing about $210 million in 2010-11.

When combined with its cut-price stablemate Jetstar (8 per cent), the Qantas group carries 26.7 per cent of the market, which grew as more Australians flew overseas because of the strength of the local currency."

Obviously, it has lost market share previously, but it seems to have arrested that.

mariner

747m8te · Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:36 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 6):
Everything appears to be in good order, although there are a couple of minor snafus.

Very nice, and clean, easy to use

Assume they will use the Foxtrot fingerway in Melbourne? Will they use the same check-in area as Skywest too?

Quoting mariner (Reply 10):
Obviously, it has lost market share previously, but it seems to have arrested that.

Its holding steady...

Quoting SOLENT (Reply 8):
I really think the inflexibility of the QF board to deal with the international market is why EK and others fly so many 777's into our country.

While 777s would have been nice in the QF fleet...still don't think they would have been the answere to the competition who operates on a lower cost base...some of the competition also has extra funding...at the end of the day, Australians have chosen to go for the cheaper option, rather then support their own! Even with 777s...QF is still going to be a more expensive option.

Actually think QF should have gained more A330s to expand into Asia...

IndianicWorld · Tue Nov 15, 2011 8:00 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 9):
Air Australia doesn't actually need to make money on BNE-MEL - Tiger does, at least with its present flight limits.

VC will need to make money on any route it operates to be a success, so its still a strange call to try and make a call like that. At its size, every dollar counts.

Given the competitive nature of the market, VC are likely the most at risk of the other players making defensive moves, given the stronger backing the other LCC brands have. Once TT can get back to full strength, thats when their lower cost base tends to be a competitive edge, especially when offering lower fares.

VC have a hard road ahead, but lets hope they can do well.

mariner · Tue Nov 15, 2011 8:12 am

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 12):
VC will need to make money on any route it operates to be a success, so its still a strange call to try and make a call like that. At its size, every dollar counts.

I disagree. I think the cleverness of the move is that the two focus cities can feed each other's long haul.

If it wanted to make money on BNE-MEL as a stand alone route, it would have to at least double the frequencies - and then it would have the problem of flling that many flights.

Obviously, it will be good to make money on BNE-MEL, and I think it probably will, but it isn't actually vital to the enterprise.

Tiger has to make money on most of its flights because it only has one connection opportunity, to PER from MEL.

mariner

[Edited 2011-11-15 00:14:19]

vaustralie · Tue Nov 15, 2011 8:38 am

Quoting byronicle6 (Reply 7):
Nice Website! i like it

I Second that!

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 12):
Once TT can get back to full strength

If TT can get back up to full strength, with

Quoting mariner (Reply 9):
A20.70 million) operating loss

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 12):
VC have a hard road ahead, but lets hope they can do well.

I Agree, I really hope VC can do well and expand heaps. I hope to see it as successful as JQ or even TT (but better) some day

baroque · Tue Nov 15, 2011 10:45 am

Note sure I follow much of this.

One source suggests the following CASMs all for the same mission (note I added a small constant to each figure so the order is likely to be correct, but the real ratio is higher than in these data.

A332 0.384 A333 0.358 788 (goodness knows what weight or SFC by now but this was the target) 0.360 789 0.339 (well a paper airplane still) A359 (paper, nearly plastic) 0.336 A3510 (paper) 0.333 773ER (real plane 0.370 744 (real plane) 0.385 748i 0.343 (but who knows now it is flying) A388 (real plane) 0.322

388 with Trent XWB and 389 well they are pipe dreams, so I will not list their projections.

If those data are half right, they suggest that while QF has lost by keeping 767s and 744s if they were to be replaced by now 5 year late 78xs, use of the 333 was more cost effective than buying 773ERs. Sorry about that bit of counter culture information, but it appears to be the case. It big mistake was not to load up with A333 a lot earlier. And the 332s are likely more cost effective on many routes where the load is not sufficient for 773s.

qf002 · Tue Nov 15, 2011 11:44 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 13):
I disagree. I think the cleverness of the move is that the two focus cities can feed each other's long haul.

I disagree. A single A320 timed to feed their flights would have been feeding long haul... 300 seats a day in each direction is going to depend on more than just feeding long haul.

cwalt2 · Tue Nov 15, 2011 11:44 am

Airnorth announced today it'll launch a new twice weekly (Monday & Friday) service between Darwin and Townsville from 17 Feb 2011.

mariner · Tue Nov 15, 2011 5:34 pm

Quoting qf002 (Reply 16):
I disagree. A single A320 timed to feed their flights would have been feeding long haul... 300 seats a day in each direction is going to depend on more than just feeding long haul.

Certainly.

But feed is the essential reason for it - why those two cities - and they know it is a highly competitive route. If it turns out to be a dog, they can cut it back to 1 x daily.

The schedule, as it stands, is bare bones, otherwise, especially on week-ends. It is the difference between wanting it to make money and needing it to make money, as Tiger does.

I imagine it is Mr. James' dream is that it will do extremely well, but - I think - he is being very pragmatic about it.

mariner

edit: and I see Tiger has been given approval to increase flights and will add a 4th MEL-BNE. Smile

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalking/

[Edited 2011-11-15 09:53:24]

tayser · Tue Nov 15, 2011 10:47 pm

Im still yet to see which terminal Air Australia are going to be using in MEL...

getting cosy with Virgin in T3? or Tiger in T4? spare gates in T2?

IndianicWorld · Wed Nov 16, 2011 6:57 am

Quoting tayser (Reply 19):
Virgin in T3?

Most likely.

Quoting tayser (Reply 19):
Tiger in T4?

Not sure theres enough room. Also not sure they want to go that far LCC

Quoting tayser (Reply 19):
spare gates in T2?

I dont think any gates can be spared in T2. Its already running at capacity at some points of the day.

Quoting mariner (Reply 18):
nd I see Tiger has been given approval to increase flights and will add a 4th MEL-BNE. Smile

Very interesting development. It will be a very competitive environment indeed.

Interesting to note that QR will likely launch PER in the next couple of months. Good move!

747m8te · Wed Nov 16, 2011 7:19 am

Air Force Two was parked at the International Terminal in BNE today, looked good! Didn't have phone or camera on me at work today so couldn't get any pictures unfortunately. Think its being towed over to the old international terminal this afternoon if anyone wants to see it

CXfirst · Wed Nov 16, 2011 7:42 am

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 21):
Interesting to note that QR will likely launch PER in the next couple of months. Good move!

Do you have any source for this? Newspapers wrote about this ages ago, and there has always been rumours. What makes you think it will happen in a couple of months. Someone told me it won't happen before QR's 787 fleet becomes a reasonable size.

-CXfirst

IndianicWorld · Wed Nov 16, 2011 8:23 am

^^ it was in the West Australian today.

A source of mine stated that this was planned but the timing seems even faster than had been stated to me.

CXfirst · Wed Nov 16, 2011 8:26 am

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 24):
^^ it was in the West Australian today.

A source of mine stated that this was planned but the timing seems even faster than had been stated to me.

Thanks. But, I'll wait for something a bit more concrete. I've had my hopes up before, as I've been looking forward to trying QR, won't raise my hopes to prematurely.

-CXfirst

IndianicWorld · Wed Nov 16, 2011 8:30 am

^^ No problem. I can see why you feel that way.

This is the closest they have come to date though. It was always just mentioned as a future option. This is actually Something that puts a timeline to things, so we will just have to wait to see how it transpires.

Julian773 · Wed Nov 16, 2011 9:05 am

Does anyone know if CX will operate 748F into MEL. I read it in another thread but haven't heard any more about it yet.

Thanks
Julian

smi0006 · Wed Nov 16, 2011 2:59 pm

For those who didn't read it in the other thread QR have announced seven new routes to be started over the next few months, including Perth!

No mention of frequency or of aircraft type.

The other destinations include:

1) Zagreb
3) Gassim
4) Helsinki
5) Kigali
6) Mombasa
7) Zanzibar

I would imagine that ZAG will get significant feed out of Melbourne. Glad to see them expanding in Australia, I imagine SYD would have to be next. Crew rumour mill states that it will be a tag on out of Melbourne very soon until they can get decent slots, can't really see this happening especially with a 77L. However this is QR and they have been know to do strange things!

ben175 · Wed Nov 16, 2011 3:12 pm

My dreams have officially come true! CZ, and now QR? I hope this is just the beginning for PER.

smi0006 · Wed Nov 16, 2011 3:33 pm

For those who didn't read it in the other thread QR have announced seven new routes to be started over the next few months, including Perth!

No mention of frequency or of aircraft type.

The other destinations include:

1) Zagreb
3) Gassim
4) Helsinki
5) Kigali
6) Mombasa
7) Zanzibar

I would imagine that ZAG will get significant feed out of Melbourne. Glad to see them expanding in Australia, I imagine SYD would have to be next. Crew rumour mill states that it will be a tag on out of Melbourne very soon until they can get decent slots, can't really see this happening especially with a 77L. However this is QR and they have been know to do strange things!

On a side note, any interrior pictures of the reconfigured QF 744 out there yet?

RyanairGuru · Thu Nov 17, 2011 4:23 am

For anyone who is interested the media train for Obama's visit is a DL 767, N1609.

It arrived at CBR from HNL yesterday, and is now airborne on it's way to DRW and then DPS tonight.

Seeing Air Force 1, Air Force 3 and the Delta 767 all parked up at Fairbairn certainly made for quite a sight!

qf002 · Thu Nov 17, 2011 7:07 am

Quoting smi0006 (Reply 30):
On a side note, any interrior pictures of the reconfigured QF 744 out there yet?

Time lapse video from QF uploaded overnight:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kz4U6mGRf9M

Still yet to see anything but CGI for the final product through.

vaustralie · Thu Nov 17, 2011 8:27 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 31):
Seeing Air Force 1, Air Force 3 and the Delta 767 all parked up at Fairbairn certainly made for quite a sight!

Aww you saw it? I was going to trek out there but had exams

Were you able to get into Brindabella Business Park to the parking lot? I would have thought you would be not allowed...

IndianicWorld · Thu Nov 17, 2011 8:41 am

Quoting smi0006 (Reply 30):
Crew rumour mill states that it will be a tag on out of Melbourne very soon until they can get decent slots, can't really see this happening especially with a 77L. However this is QR and they have been know to do strange things!

Frankly, I can't see it. Given the hours the flight operates, a tag on is not even possible.

The results from MEL are doing well from what I have heard. SYD may just need to wait a few years for once

As you state, QR do some strange things at times, but even this is likely a step too far for them.

RyanairGuru · Thu Nov 17, 2011 8:43 am

Quoting vaustralie (Reply 33):
Aww you saw it? I was going to trek out there but had exams
Were you able to get into Brindabella Business Park to the parking lot? I would have thought you would be not allowed...

For the general public the best place seemed to be the Costco parking lot. It looked like there was quite a large crowd over there, and while it is some distance from the Fairbairn apron AF1 rotated right in front of them so they certainly got a good view!

I also know some people who went up Mt Ainslie and looked down on it arriving, and also (through binoculars) saw Obama getting off so while they were some distance away they were some of the only people able to see him.

As for me? I may or may not have been on the ramp at Fairbairn this morning

mariner · Fri Nov 18, 2011 3:11 am

And here's news from my favourite start-up airline, Air Australia.

As reported in The Australian it has applied for 4 x weekly service to Vietnam (in the case of Melbourne, from Avalon, which is a small surprise to me, but, in money terms, makes sense).

Ben Sandilands has a longer article about it in Crikey:

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalk...lia-goes-over-the-top-for-vietnam/

"The application announced today to the International Air Services Commission for an allocation of four flights a week between Australia and Vietnam for Air Australia, formerly Strategic Airlines, is intriguing at number of levels.

Starting with its courage.'

I think it is a darn good idea. Air Australia will acquire more aircraft, if necessary. And it doesn't stop there:

"Air Australia additionally requests an allocation of capacity from smaller Australian ports, which of course could mean Darwin, Cairns, the Gold Coast, Canberra and Adelaide, but that would mean even more A330s."

I don't see why that last is true, at least from Darwin. But Sandilands is, as so often, a bit too cynical for me. He tries to compare the experience of Jetstar Pacific, an airline based in Vietrnam, to an airline simply flying to Vietnam. He ends with:

"It is a case of ask, get, and then find the money and equipment needed to fly.

Better than the other way round.

mariner

[Edited 2011-11-17 19:13:39]

IndianicWorld · Fri Nov 18, 2011 6:18 am

^^ AVV?? Seeing as it currently has no international facilities or official clearance to operate as a gateway, that will be interesting about timing of such a plan. I can see VC moving it's flights to AVV in the coming years though, if it gets clearance as an international airport and the rail line is built. I'm sure Linfox would cut them a good deal

Given that they seem to have applied for route authority all over the place, not sure I'd read into it that much at this stage though.

I read in a paper the other day that Alliance is looking to commence Melbourne flights soon. Could this be the AVV FIFO flights that were mentioned a while back?

vaustralie · Fri Nov 18, 2011 7:45 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 38):
which of course could mean Darwin, Cairns, the Gold Coast, Canberra

I really hope it does mean CBR. You get sick of flying DJ and QF. VC would be welcome!!

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 34):
Costco parking lot

Of course. That would be the best place..

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 34):
I may or may not have been on the ramp at Fairbairn this morning

LUUUUUUUCKY YOOOOOU :O

Quoting mariner (Reply 38):
Australia and Vietnam for Air Australia

I think thats a good idea! I know alot of Vietnamese living in the AVV/MEL area and I think it would go down pretty well..

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 39):
Alliance is looking to commence Melbourne flights soon

Is Alliance a charter airline only?

eaglefarm4 · Fri Nov 18, 2011 8:18 am

Yes Alliance is a charter airline only, but it does operate RPT flights for Qantas on BNE-ROK and BNE-MKY.

BNE-Orange-Melbourne(possibly Avalon)-Telfer to commence next Wednesday back Thursday as a FIFO charter.

With Vietnam airlines already flying out of MEL,SYD my guess will be BNE and PER to get 2 flights each from VC.

Cheers.

vaustralie · Sat Nov 19, 2011 4:40 am

Quoting eaglefarm4 (Reply 41):
Yes Alliance is a charter airline only, but it does operate RPT flights for Qantas on BNE-ROK and BNE-MKY.

Thanks

I think they also operate from ADL for QF

pilotdude09 · Sat Nov 19, 2011 3:38 pm

Quoting eaglefarm4 (Reply 41):
Yes Alliance is a charter airline only, but it does operate RPT flights for Qantas on BNE-ROK and BNE-MKY.

Also PER-KTA-PER, cheapest airline on the route! Also cause the FIFO guys don't take luggage generally they are VERY generous and have become the ones to take if you do a shopping spree in Perth!

Something interesting I found out today Qantas is seeking to create a permanent engineering base in KTA, Starting off as a small office but apparently it could become a significant MX base in the future......not somewhere I thought we would see engineers based but anyway...........

Also I was told that it is to cater for 737/767 and A320 fleets......so maybe JQ is on it's way to run to DPS or HKT?

Interesting times ahead in KTA.

mariner · Sat Nov 19, 2011 5:47 pm

There are some interesting numbers in this SMH article about travel to Hawaii:

http://www.smh.com.au/travel/hawaii-...ve-of-interest-20111117-1nkjb.html

"HOT in the 1980s, forgotten in the '90s, Hawaii is well and truly "back" in 2011. With a powerful Australian dollar, improved flight access and a growing awareness that it offers much more than beaches, Hawaii is attracting Australian travellers in droves.

The latest figures from the Hawaii Tourism Authority show Australian visitor numbers are up 36 per cent on last year, a huge jump on top of 2010's 26 per cent increase.

The brand leader of Escape Travel, Sally Wiseman, says there has been "overwhelming" demand for travel to Hawaii."

It mostly promotes Hawaiian's move to daily SYD-HNL - fair enough, it is a Sydney paper - with the other airlines scarcely rating a mention, but they are mentioned.

mariner

cwalt2 · Sun Nov 20, 2011 6:47 am

Interesting, Xiamen Airlines says it plans to launch long-haul services to points in Australia, Europe and North America in 2014. They are linked with China Southern I believe, so wonder if they'll operate to non-mainstream Aussie gateways, perhaps Adelaide, Cairns, the Gold Coast or Darwin?

http://news.delta.com/index.php?s=43&item=1489

Nov 17, 2011

AMSTERDAM, Nov. 17, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- SkyTeam, the global airline alliance, today formally accepted the joining of Xiamen Airlines into the alliance. China's fifth largest airline, Xiamen Airlines begins the joining process leading to full entry into SkyTeam by the end of 2012, further strengthening the alliance offer in the flourishing southeast China region.

Based in Xiamen, a coastal city in East China's Fujian province, Xiamen Airlines operates a network of domestic and regional services throughout China and Asia, predominantly from the hub airports of Xiamen, Fuzhou and Hangzhou. Fujian is one of the more prosperous provinces in China with diverse industries such as clothing, tea production and electronics. Tourism has seen very strong growth and is one of the highlights in the region's economy.

While currently over 90% of the network is domestic, Xiamen Airlines' goal is to boost its international traffic by expanding the network to serve major long-haul destinations in Australia, Europe and North America, starting in 2014. The integration of Xiamen Airlines into SkyTeam will be fully supported by major shareholder China Southern, the first Chinese airline that joined SkyTeam in 2007.

RyanairGuru · Sun Nov 20, 2011 9:10 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 44):

Koruman will be delighted

Quoting cwalt2 (Reply 45):
They are linked with China Southern I believe, so wonder if they'll operate to non-mainstream Aussie gateways

Quoting cwalt2 (Reply 45):
Xiamen, Fuzhou and Hangzhou

I guess it depends whether it starts from its own bases, or complements CZ on smaller routes from CAN.

In the future I think SYD could definitely support a Hangzhou link, and maybe Fuzhou as well.

I think Xiamen would be a stretch, although I think KL fly there from AMS

Sydscott · Mon Nov 21, 2011 6:42 am

Hi all,

An update from the IASC;

As Mariner and others have discussed Strategic has applied for 4 weekly flights to Vietnam;

http://www.iasc.gov.au/applications/files/4670.pdf

The other decision of note is the re-approval of the Qantas/SAA codeshare agreement;

http://www.iasc.gov.au/determination...isions/files/2011/2011iascd220.pdf

Although there are some very interesting comments in Section 7 of the report which basically concludes;

1. That the arrangement is a hindrance to competition. (Finally!)
2. That the codeshare is renewed only until December 2012 and will not be approved again after that.
3. That SAA & QF must fly at least 14 services per week combined on the route and that SAA must return to daily services or, if it wants less than daily, convince the commission of a commercial reason why they shouldn't do daily or covnince QF to fly additional services so they make the 14.

So basically in December 2012 there will be no more SAA/QF codeshare arrangement.

qf002 · Mon Nov 21, 2011 7:16 am

Quoting sydscott (Reply 47):
So basically in December 2012 there will be no more SAA/QF codeshare arrangement.

Interesting! Personally I don't see SAA on the East Coast, but rather getting into a deal with VA to codeshare on transcontinental flights to pick up traffic. That would also give VA a flight to South Africa out of PER.

QF's reaction will be interesting to watch. They could feasibly send A332s on PER-JNB if they wanted to jump into that market. I doubt that they will do anything though tbh.

kiwiandrew · Mon Nov 21, 2011 7:20 am

Quoting sydscott (Reply 47):
So basically in December 2012 there will be no more SAA/QF codeshare arrangement.

Good to see the back of this far too cosy relationship, it will be interesting to see whether SA return to SYD with their own metal even if at a limited frequency.

IndianicWorld · Mon Nov 21, 2011 7:26 am

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 49):
Good to see the back of this far too cosy relationship, it will be interesting to see whether SA return to SYD with their own metal even if at a limited frequency.

I don't see that happening.

The yields on SA-Australia are inflated by arrangements like this.. Add in more capacity and the result will be less than ideal for both.

I'd love to see a carrier take on MEL-JNB again, but realistically its doubtful.

thegeek · Mon Nov 21, 2011 7:29 am

Quoting qf002 (Reply 48):
QF's reaction will be interesting to watch. They could feasibly send A332s on PER-JNB if they wanted to jump into that market. I doubt that they will do anything though tbh.

Still a 400km or so diversion:
http://gc.kls2.com/cgi-bin/gc?PATH=p...GE-COLOR=navy&MAP-STYLE=&ETOPS=180

They've got plenty of 747-400s so they could just as easily put one of them on the route if they really wanted to challenge SA after the end of the agreement.

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 49):
Good to see the back of this far too cosy relationship, it will be interesting to see whether SA return to SYD with their own metal even if at a limited frequency.

I'd wonder if flying to MEL would be more likely? With the reluctance of QF to fly internationally from points other than SYD, they could keep the market to themselves. I guess the question is did the VA flight fail just because of the ETOPS diversion (probably not), so could SA succeed where VA failed?

kiwiandrew · Mon Nov 21, 2011 7:32 am

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 50):
The yields on SA-Australia are inflated by arrangements like this.. Add in more capacity and the result will be less than ideal for both.

True, but I wasn't necessarily thinking of an increase in capacity. QF international have been in full retreat mode, maybe without this cartel arrangment inflating yields QF will decide to either drop Africa from the route map at the end of 2012 or reduce their frequency. If they do either of those then I wouldn't be surprised to see SA starting back on the JNB-SYD direct route.

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