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StarAC17
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Tue Dec 06, 2011 1:13 am

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 84):

When AC starts producing consistent, investment grade returns, then yes I will stop bashing AC management (who happen to be based in Quebec). Such profits are a long way off, it would seem...........

Don't put your money in a lot of airlines then, airlines are so competitve with each other that very few I reckon would produce those returns and if they do in the short term it might be unsustainable in the long term. Flying like most forms of transport is inherently not that profitable.

A lot of the problems in today's economy as a whole both on a micro and macro scale is that too many focused on short term returns that would become long term ones.

Quoting bestwestern (Reply 95):
Maybe there is no money to be made in being a full service long haul Canadian airline.

IIRC AC's long haul services are quite profitable.


Quoting yyz717 (Reply 92):
Overnight you are correct. But with each passing year WS continues to gain a few points of market share, as does Porter. In 10 years if this trend conrtinues, WS MIGHT be the largest carrier in Canada. AC continues to diminish slightly with each passing year in terms of its market share. So, in years to come, the demise of AC would have less impact than say today.

What makes you think that WS could introduce a fleet of 77W's and not have cost and efficiency issues flying long haul. Especially when with long haul flying you need to usually have at least a 2 class aircraft and more things included on board. Remember costs are just not limited to the upkeep of a new fleet but also factor in the taxes and fees of flying to a new country and the fact that the crew of a widebody commands more pay as an industry standard.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 84):
You mean YYZ-LGA and it was 2004. Their service was shortlived. They claimed the 4 daily slots were not good for business travellers. Looks like they'll be "slinking" back to LGA with their recent slot awards, further eroding loads and yields on a key AC business route.

Best of luck to WS on competing with the current competition on this route but where WS has a disadvantage is the lack of an FF program with the clout of Aeroplan or AA advantage which turns off business travellers from flying with them. WS has struggled to compete on this route as well as the YYZ-YUL-YOW triangle where 2/3 of the population of Canada live. If WS is to expand more it has to be done there and it's not easy for them.

Also WS IIRC tried YYZ-LAX as well and couldn't make a go of that.
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babybus
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Tue Dec 06, 2011 1:17 am

Bankruptcy seems like a redundant and needless term in north America. Despite having no cash the company just carries on as normal.

In UK if a company goes bust it disappears from sight, unless the government buy it.

With all these airlines in trouble maybe it's time to do some massive consolidation. Too many airlines chasing too few passengers.
and with that..cabin crew, seats for landing please.
 
threepoint
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Tue Dec 06, 2011 1:32 am

If rumors are true, WS operating a single type could be coming to an end fairly soon. [/quote]
Sure, but we've heard these rumours for how many years now? WS will announce they're purchase of a fleet of 787s any...minute...now...

Quoting Babybus (Reply 101):
Too many airlines chasing too few passengers.

I doubt it's a case of too few passengers; loads have consistently been in the 80% range for both major carriers. Yields of course are a different matter, but no matter who is chasing the business traveler, the state of the economy remains the same for all players. With the open skies arrangement between the US and Canada, who's to say UA couldn't quickly assume the bulk of the lucrative transborder routes that AC currently operates? I could see most premium passengers opting for UA First or Economy Plus rather than singing their way to the meeting on board WestJet.
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beechnut
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Tue Dec 06, 2011 1:49 am

Quoting threepoint (Reply 102):
If rumors are true, WS operating a single type could be coming to an end fairly soon.

Sure, but we've heard these rumours for how many years now? WS will announce they're purchase of a fleet of 787s any...minute...now...
[/quote]


787? Now that would surprise me. But a fleet of C-series or Embraers, or even Q400s, not so much.

Beech
 
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TWA772LR
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Tue Dec 06, 2011 1:53 am

Im sure AA and AC will both stay around for a very long time. AA is just "too big to fail" and AC is the flag carrier of Canada. My   . Doesn't the Canadian govt, still have a stake in AC? Correct me if I am wrong.

Quoting LV (Reply 2):
So maybe the lesson is not to name your airline after your home country  

Good one! 
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threepoint
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Tue Dec 06, 2011 5:30 am

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 104):
Doesn't the Canadian govt, still have a stake in AC? Correct me if I am wrong.

You stand corrected. Air Canada was fully privatized from a Crown Corporation (not sure there's an equivalent in the US) in 1988. There are those that love to use the argument of government assistance in any manner of debates despite the nearly quarter century that has elapsed.

Quoting threepoint (Reply 102):
WS will announce they're purchase

It's time I refreshed the concept of homonyms.
The nice thing about a mistake is the pleasure it gives others.
 
Whiteguy
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Tue Dec 06, 2011 5:46 am

Quoting beechnut (Reply 103):
Quoting threepoint (Reply 102):
If rumors are true, WS operating a single type could be coming to an end fairly soon.

Sure, but we've heard these rumours for how many years now? WS will announce they're purchase of a fleet of 787s any...minute...now...

787? Now that would surprise me. But a fleet of C-series or Embraers, or even Q400s, not so much.

Beech

[/quote]


Yup, smaller not bigger!
 
kiramakora
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Tue Dec 06, 2011 7:42 am

Quoting multimark (Reply 82):
Quoting kiramakora (Reply 81):
Someday you will have to explain to me your anti-WS AC rocks stance you take on each and every post. It is amusing. Not a single person really expected WS to make a play for LGA slots and win. And, they did. If WS feels LHR is a good option, it will make a play. Their management has significant more Street credentials than those at AC.

How many years ago was it that WS slunk away from NYC with their tale between their legs?

WS was a very different airline in 2004/05 when it tried LGA as a once/twice? daily operation. With 8 slots and an apparent commitment to the business traveller, I think things are different and will turn our differently for them.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 87):
That.

We've yet to get a straight answer as to how WS has been able to outperform AC so clearly when both are paying the same taxes and fees.

And IMHO it's pretty lame to think that the ethnicity of some subset of the management matters.

This thread points out the challenges of serving a large country with low population so IMHO it should be clear that it's wasteful to bicker about ethnicity.

Great points.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 94):
Have no doubt that if AC were to die, their routes would be pounced upon.

Agreed.

Quoting StarAC17 (Reply 100):
IIRC AC's long haul services are quite profitable.

Actually, they are not. Transborder does well, and a few select routes internationally. Problem with AC is several of its routes contribute to the network, but unravel by itself. Adding them up does not add overall value. What AC needs is a significant new network team instead of the tired faces they have right now.

Quoting StarAC17 (Reply 100):
Best of luck to WS on competing with the current competition on this route but where WS has a disadvantage is the lack of an FF program with the clout of Aeroplan or AA advantage which turns off business travellers from flying with them. WS has struggled to compete on this route as well as the YYZ-YUL-YOW triangle where 2/3 of the population of Canada live. If WS is to expand more it has to be done there and it's not easy for them.

Well, wouldn't WS leverage its partnership in the U.S. like AS to mitigate the Aeroplan advantage. Moreover, remember that no one thought easyJet could pull it off in Europe by becoming a strong player in the key business markets. Look at them now. WS filing consistently low fares on NYC markets will make a tremendous dent on AC's bottomline. There is only so many times one can justify corporate travel based solely on airline loyalty.
 
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yyz717
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Tue Dec 06, 2011 1:35 pm

Quoting YOWza (Reply 93):
Until WS elects to move away from being a 737 only shop they can not really be considered a true alternative to AC

70+% of AC's network is on A320/E190 flights.....which makes WS the alternative with its NG fleet. It's already a true alternative.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 94):
WS, for example has a business model of only operating routes which make money. It's a good model and has served them well.

Exactly. If AC had the same model, they would have to withdraw from most routes since the average AC route lozes money on a fully cost burdened basis.

Quoting StarAC17 (Reply 100):
What makes you think that WS could introduce a fleet of 77W's and not have cost and efficiency issues flying long haul. Especially when with long haul flying you need to usually have at least a 2 class aircraft and more things included on board. Remember costs are just not limited to the upkeep of a new fleet but also factor in the taxes and fees of flying to a new country and the fact that the crew of a widebody commands more pay as an industry standard.

The unit labour cost advantage of WS would immediately transfer to any WS 77W fleet.

Quoting StarAC17 (Reply 100):
WS has struggled to compete on this route as well as the YYZ-YUL-YOW triangle where 2/3 of the population of Canada live. If WS is to expand more it has to be done there and it's not easy for them.

WS doubled its flights in the YYZ-YUL-YOW triangle in May.

Quoting StarAC17 (Reply 100):
Also WS IIRC tried YYZ-LAX as well and couldn't make a go of that.

With AC's huge losses, I suspect AC is not making a go of YYZ-LAX either, despite their 4x or 5x daily flights.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
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Revelation
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Tue Dec 06, 2011 1:36 pm

Quoting robsaw (Reply 99):
What makes you think taxes and fees are the differentiating factor?

I don't (nor did I say so), however, it's in response to earlier parts of the thread, namely:

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 42):
Quoting flyyul (Reply 33):
It's easy to point the finger at Air Canada management, but look what it has to work with;

-Airports that are self-financed through not for profit entities that literally imposes rate and charges that are quadruple of American airports. At Air Canada's largest hub (and Canada's economic powerhouse), the rates and charges are completely uncompetitive with it's peers. This also applies to YUL, YVR etc.
WS operates under the same environment and yet can generate profit....why can't AC?
Quoting robsaw (Reply 99):
All of which save costs compared to AC.

Indeed, and it's pretty clear to me that the only way AC can get relief from these things (pay rates, work rules, defined benefits pensions) is to go through bankruptcy.

It's pretty clear AC's unions are in no mood to make concessions.

Quoting Babybus (Reply 101):
Bankruptcy seems like a redundant and needless term in north America. Despite having no cash the company just carries on as normal.

In UK if a company goes bust it disappears from sight, unless the government buy it.

BK does allow for more risk taking which makes the US and CA markets more lively, the UK ones, well, less so.

Keep in mind the court just supervises a committee of creditors. If the creditors think they are better off liquidating the company, that is what will happen. It happened to PanAm and to Eastern years ago, and it certainly could happen again.

Quoting Babybus (Reply 101):
With all these airlines in trouble maybe it's time to do some massive consolidation. Too many airlines chasing too few passengers.

You do realize there was both CP and AC at one point? Also you did hear of DL and NW, UA and CO, US and HP, etc, no?
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babybus
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Tue Dec 06, 2011 3:07 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 109):
You do realize there was both CP and AC at one point? Also you did hear of DL and NW, UA and CO, US and HP, etc, no?

And there is more to go obviously. Loads of carriers dilute the yield.

Maybe we need only one well run national airline and a government monitored LCC?

Quoting Revelation (Reply 109):
BK does allow for more risk taking

Are you referring to buying loads of new aircraft when you can't actually afford to buy them? If an airline does not posses the management skills to manage an airline successfully then that airline needs to be dissolved for the benefit of better run airlines in the same market. That's the definition of free-market competition, surely.
and with that..cabin crew, seats for landing please.
 
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yowza
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Tue Dec 06, 2011 3:33 pm

Quoting Babybus (Reply 101):
Bankruptcy seems like a redundant and needless term in north America. Despite having no cash the company just carries on as normal.

Bankruptcy proceedings are not the same in Canada as they are in the US. There is also an important distinction between bankruptcy and bankruptcy protection.

Quoting threepoint (Reply 102):
Sure, but we've heard these rumours for how many years now? WS will announce they're purchase of a fleet of 787s any...minute...now...

Well the longer they go without another type the more saturated their potential pairs will get so I think this is a natural talking point. Add to this the fact that they are leasing 757s and your can see that the 737 only stance is under pressure.

Quoting whiteguy (Reply 106):
Yup, smaller not bigger!

I think both are a possibility. Smaller would be a great way to get additional seats in bums out west.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 108):
70+% of AC's network is on A320/E190 flights.....which makes WS the alternative with its NG fleet. It's already a true alternative.

Once again you're choosing to ignore international ops which I think distorts the discussion. What happens when I need to fly YYZ-NRT for work? Am I supposed to beg Saretsky to rip all of the seats out of an NG, throw in some extra tanks and pray it's got the legs to get there? Out of curiosity where does that 70% number come from? Is that a crude percentage based on assigned types for pair or is their any distance factored into the percentage?

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 108):
WS doubled its flights in the YYZ-YUL-YOW triangle in May.

Are they still not playing third fiddle to AC and PD?

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 108):
With AC's huge losses, I suspect AC is not making a go of YYZ-LAX either, despite their 4x or 5x daily flights.

Really? Why would they then have upgraded capacity on YYZ-LAX in the last few months? To really drive that pesky load factor down?

YOWza
 
Kaiarahi
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Tue Dec 06, 2011 4:06 pm

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 108):
Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 94):
WS, for example has a business model of only operating routes which make money. It's a good model and has served them well.

Exactly. If AC had the same model, they would have to withdraw from most routes since the average AC route lozes money on a fully cost burdened basis.

Which is exactly why Canada's air transportation policy is designed to ensure service on these routes. Outside a population band just north of the U.S. border, Canada's population is thinly distributed. 10 of Canada's 13 provincial/territorial capitals have small-medium sized populations (YEG, YWG and YYZ are the exceptions). East-West service to these cities is essential to the political/economic cohesion of Canada as a counterbalance to the economic North-South pull of the U.S.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 108):
With AC's huge losses, I suspect AC is not making a go of YYZ-LAX either, despite their 4x or 5x daily flights.

Do you have numbers? My experience (15-20 times a year) is that the flights are full and it's often impossible to get a J seat.
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
brilondon
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Tue Dec 06, 2011 4:37 pm

Quoting bestwestern (Reply 95):
Maybe there is no money to be made in being a full service long haul Canadian airline.



There is but only AC is offering this product and their financial obligations go further then just the operating costs of the airline.

Quoting TheCol (Reply 96):
The existing carriers would have most of the domestic routes covered completely in under 30 days. If AC were to cease operations, the writing would be on the wall for some time before that and other carriers would have time to prepare their logistics. Many would be ready for the extra capacity the day of.



if the routes are profitable, then they are already covered.

Quoting whiteguy (Reply 97):
If rumors are true, WS operating a single type could be coming to an end fairly soon. Also means costs will go up.



They have several leased 757's to access. They also have the 736, 737-700, and the 738 in their fleet. There are 4 different types.

Quoting Babybus (Reply 101):
Bankruptcy seems like a redundant and needless term in north America. Despite having no cash the company just carries on as normal.

In UK if a company goes bust it disappears from sight, unless the government buy it.

With all these airlines in trouble maybe it's time to do some massive consolidation. Too many airlines chasing too few passengers.
Quoting YOWza (Reply 111):
Bankruptcy proceedings are not the same in Canada as they are in the US. There is also an important distinction between bankruptcy and bankruptcy protection.



In Canada as well as in the U.K. there is bankruptcy were the company shuts its doors. Then in Canada there is the CCRA which the company can run under the supervision of an court appointed trustee. In the U.S. they call that a chapter 11 bankruptcy. I believe the U.K. has a similar system to Canada, if some one knows for sure they can let us know.
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Kaiarahi
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Tue Dec 06, 2011 5:12 pm

Quoting brilondon (Reply 113):
In Canada as well as in the U.K. there is bankruptcy were the company shuts its doors.

Not necessarily - the Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act also provides processes for insolvent businesses to negotiate arrangements with their creditors for the compromise of their debts and the reorganization of their financial affairs. However, many companies choose to use CCRA, because the process is better adapted to businesses.

Quoting Babybus (Reply 101):
In UK if a company goes bust it disappears from sight, unless the government buy it.

Not true. Since 1968, U.K. insolvency law has provided for CVAs (Company Voluntary Arrangements), which are not dissimilar to Chapter 11 in the U.S. or CCRA in Canada.
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Revelation
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Tue Dec 06, 2011 5:37 pm

Quoting Babybus (Reply 110):
Are you referring to buying loads of new aircraft when you can't actually afford to buy them? If an airline does not posses the management skills to manage an airline successfully then that airline needs to be dissolved for the benefit of better run airlines in the same market.

Again, that can happen, if the creditors think it should happen.

Quoting YOWza (Reply 111):
Bankruptcy proceedings are not the same in Canada as they are in the US. There is also an important distinction between bankruptcy and bankruptcy protection.

Right. In the US it's the difference between Chapter 11 (reorganization) and Chapter 7 (liquidation).

Ref: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy#United_States
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threepoint
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Tue Dec 06, 2011 6:18 pm

Quoting brilondon (Reply 113):
They have several leased 757's to access.
Quoting YOWza (Reply 111):
Add to this the fact that they are leasing 757s and your can see that the 737 only stance is under pressure.

Keep in mind gentlemen, that there are only 2 or 3 757s under lease (WS was forced to use this option if they wanted to remain competitive on Hawaii routes as their 737s often had to make tech stops in OR or CA along the way).
The 757s are also wet leased, which means that WS assumes no additional cost for pilot, flight attendant or maintenance training, they carry no spares for the 757 nor do they have to create training and operating manuals for that type. It is a fixed cost paid to the 757 operator.

Quoting brilondon (Reply 113):
They also have the 736, 737-700, and the 738 in their fleet. There are 4 different types.

Re: the 737s...in the scope of this discussion, they're not different types. Pilot and FA training is valid for this 'common type' and (I'm assuming here) the vast majority of the parts are identical for each variant. Bottom line: WestJet truly operates one common aircraft type: the 737NG.
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Whiteguy
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Tue Dec 06, 2011 6:19 pm

Quoting brilondon (Reply 113):
They have several leased 757's to access. They also have the 736, 737-700, and the 738 in their fleet. There are 4 different types.

The 757s are flown by Thomas Cook pilots and WJ FAs just get a differences course. The B736/7/8 are all the same type when it comes to training. By added a completely new type, Q400 for example, your training cost increases, scheduling becomes an issue, and pay scale is going to change. All of this will change the bottom line for WS.
 
cslusarc
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Tue Dec 06, 2011 6:25 pm

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 112):
10 of Canada's 13 provincial/territorial capitals have small-medium sized populations (YEG, YWG and YYZ are the exceptions).

I'd also categorize YQB as a provincial capital with a large sized CMA population north of 700,000.
--cslusarc from YWG
 
Kaiarahi
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Tue Dec 06, 2011 8:10 pm

Quoting cslusarc (Reply 118):

OK - fair enough. But I think the general point still remains valid.
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
Whiteguy
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Tue Dec 06, 2011 9:31 pm

Quoting threepoint (Reply 116):
Keep in mind gentlemen, that there are only 2 or 3 757s under lease (WS was forced to use this option if they wanted to remain competitive on Hawaii routes as their 737s often had to make tech stops in OR or CA along the way).

The 737 were also restricted to 100 seats max operating from YYC or YEG due to fuel.

Quoting threepoint (Reply 116):
The 757s are also wet leased, which means that WS assumes no additional cost for pilot, flight attendant or maintenance training, they carry no spares for the 757 nor do they have to create training and operating manuals for that type. It is a fixed cost paid to the 757 operator.

This winter it will be WS flight attendants on the B757s unlike last year when they had North American FAs and a single WS FA as an "ambassador".
 
threepoint
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Tue Dec 06, 2011 9:45 pm

Quoting whiteguy (Reply 120):
This winter it will be WS flight attendants on the B757s unlike last year when they had North American FAs and a single WS FA as an "ambassador".

Thank you for the update.
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Viscount724
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Tue Dec 06, 2011 10:48 pm

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 108):
Quoting YOWza (Reply 93):
Until WS elects to move away from being a 737 only shop they can not really be considered a true alternative to AC

70+% of AC's network is on A320/E190 flights.

That can't be correct unless you're excluding the regional destinations served by the Air Canada Express contract operators.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 108):
Quoting StarAC17 (Reply 100):
WS has struggled to compete on this route as well as the YUL-WS is to expand more it has to be done there and it's not easy for them.

WS doubled its flights in the YUL-WS schedule in those markets is still far from competitive with AC and Porter. And their schedule in those markets was increased but wasn't doubled.

[Edited 2011-12-06 15:02:34]
 
CXH
Posts: 152
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Tue Dec 06, 2011 10:49 pm

Quoting brilondon (Reply 113):
In Canada as well as in the U.K. there is bankruptcy were the company shuts its doors. Then in Canada there is the CCRA which the company can run under the supervision of an court appointed trustee. In the U.S. they call that a chapter 11 bankruptcy. I believe the U.K. has a similar system to Canada, if some one knows for sure they can let us know.

Not that I think AC will seek bankruptcy protection, but to nitpick: it's CCAA, not CCRA. The Companies' Creditors Arrangement Act.

http://www.pwc.com/ca/en/car/what-is-ccaa.jhtml

http://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/bsf-osb.nsf/eng/h_br02281.html
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abrelosojos
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Wed Dec 07, 2011 5:34 am

Quoting YOWza (Reply 111):
Quoting yyz717 (Reply 108):
WS doubled its flights in the YYZ-YUL-YOW triangle in May.

Are they still not playing third fiddle to AC and PD?

= At some point, usual S-curve effect kicks in and the significantly additional frequency adds far less value. I just took a look at both MIDT and PaxIS and was amazed at the effect of WS on the YYZ-YUL-YOW flights. Take a look at just how much fare has fallen for AC, and how much they must be hurting by WS's entry in the market.

Saludos,
A.
Live, and let live.
 
threepoint
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Wed Dec 07, 2011 5:48 am

Quoting abrelosojos (Reply 124):
I just took a look at both MIDT and PaxIS and was amazed at the effect of WS on the YYZ-YUL-YOW flights. Take a look at just how much fare has fallen for AC, and how much they must be hurting by WS's entry in the market.

Over what time period? And how much has the fare dropped - in absolute terms and in relative terms?
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connector4you
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Wed Dec 07, 2011 6:25 am

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 67):
They already do carry a lot of connecting traffic via Canada, but don't have to rely on that type of traffic as heavily as the other carriers you mention since Canada is a much larger O&D market and O&D traffic normally generates much higher yields than 6th freedom connecting traffic

Any additional source of revenue counts. I think that embracing the “minimalist approach” of the old good school of thought “flying less for more” doesn’t have long legs these days. Airlines that do have unionized labor and hence a higher base cost structure should seek more business opportunities in order to achieve higher labor productivity and additional revenue.
 
abrelosojos
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Wed Dec 07, 2011 6:31 am

Quoting threepoint (Reply 125):

Over what time period? And how much has the fare dropped - in absolute terms and in relative terms?


= I don't have a time for a deep dive, but average fare on YYZ-YUL pre and post WS has dropped from around 250 to around 200 (today). Given WS has stolen passengers, one can do the revenue implication.

Saludos,
A.
Live, and let live.
 
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yyz717
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Wed Dec 07, 2011 1:43 pm

Quoting abrelosojos (Reply 124):
I just took a look at both MIDT and PaxIS and was amazed at the effect of WS on the YYZ-YUL-YOW flights. Take a look at just how much fare has fallen for AC, and how much they must be hurting by WS's entry in the market.

WS did not recently enter the YYZ-YUL/YOW market -- they just greatly increased frequencies last May. Yes, this would have reduced traffic and yields for AC. SkyRegional started 15x daily YTZ-YUL in May also which is the same market -- this would have hurt AC mainline also.

Quoting whiteguy (Reply 117):
By added a completely new type, Q400 for example, your training cost increases, scheduling becomes an issue, and pay scale is going to change. All of this will change the bottom line for WS.

Correct, but revenue opportunities increase. If the incremental revenue exceeds the costs, it's a win. Virgin Australia (arguably WS's equivalent in Australia excluding the former V Australia long haul component) has added the E-Jet and the ATR72 to its 737NG fleet recently.

Quoting threepoint (Reply 116):
Keep in mind gentlemen, that there are only 2 or 3 757s under lease (WS was forced to use this option if they wanted to remain competitive on Hawaii routes as their 737s often had to make tech stops in OR or CA along the way).

WS will lease 1 757 from mid-Dec to end of April.

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 112):
My experience (15-20 times a year) is that the flights are full and it's often impossible to get a J seat.

Anecdotal observations on individual flight load factors are completely irrelevant to overall airline traffic or profit discussion.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
abrelosojos
Posts: 4302
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Wed Dec 07, 2011 4:18 pm

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 128):
WS did not recently enter the YYZ-YUL/YOW market -- they just greatly increased frequencies last May. Yes, this would have reduced traffic and yields for AC. SkyRegional started 15x daily YTZ-YUL in May also which is the same market -- this would have hurt AC mainline also.

= Aah yes. Sorry. I don't follow the market well and I just took the increase of frequency as the begin point. I should have asked my friends over at WS!

Anyways, it will be interesting also to see what they do with the LGA slots and how they put pressure on AC. Their network planning team is strong and I know the guy who recently moved, and he is pretty good with out of box ideas that make money.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 128):
WS will lease 1 757 from mid-Dec to end of April.

= This is the part of the strategy I don't get. I recognize it served them well, but at some point they will have to revisit this conversation. Though as many others have mentioned, I see them going small vs. large initially.

Saludos,
A.
Live, and let live.
 
ytz
Posts: 3529
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Wed Dec 07, 2011 5:34 pm

Quoting abrelosojos (Reply 127):
= I don't have a time for a deep dive, but average fare on YYZ-YUL pre and post WS has dropped from around 250 to around 200 (today). Given WS has stolen passengers, one can do the revenue implication.

Are you sure it wasn't Porter that had that effect and not WS?
 
threepoint
Posts: 1294
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Wed Dec 07, 2011 5:56 pm

Quoting abrelosojos (Reply 129):
This is the part of the strategy I don't get. I recognize it served them well, but at some point they will have to revisit this conversation.

They have several apparently profitable routes (western Canada to Hawaii) that often can't be completed nonstop during the prime winter season. The 737 often has the legs to make the crossing nonstop, but 'often' doesn't cut it if passengers are going to select AC's greater-range aircraft instead. It would seem the route is important enough to WestJet and/or the threat of losing passengers to their competitors warrants the decision to lease an airplane that will definitely get there without doglegging for fuel.
Having made that decision, I believe the wet lease of an aircraft makes the most sense rather than introducing a costly oddball into their fleet.
Steering back to AC in particular, while they have a diverse fleet and assume the associated costs of such, I believe their fleet strategy and slight consolidation is well considered. If it weren't for 787 delays of course, they'd have even fewer types without sacrificing capability. An eventual mainline composition of 4 types seems entirely appropriate for them.
I remain an optimist that fortunes will improve for AC.
The nice thing about a mistake is the pleasure it gives others.
 
Kaiarahi
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Wed Dec 07, 2011 9:19 pm

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 128):
Anecdotal observations on individual flight load factors are completely irrelevant to overall airline traffic or profit discussion.

So give us the numbers (you conveniently omitted that part of my post) to back up your assertion that

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 108):
With AC's huge losses, I suspect AC is not making a go of LAX either, despite their 4x or 5x daily flights.


[Edited 2011-12-07 13:20:55]
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
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yyz717
Posts: 15775
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Thu Dec 08, 2011 1:03 am

Quoting abrelosojos (Reply 129):
Quoting yyz717 (Reply 128):
WS will lease 1 757 from mid-Dec to end of April.

= This is the part of the strategy I don't get.

I see it as a minimalist response to the need for nonstop YYC/YEG-HNL/OGG flights without having to add another type permanently to the fleet. In winter 2011, it was a 3-month wet lease of a 752, this year it's a 5-month "damp" lease of a 752 (FA"s will be WS this year).

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 132):
So give us the numbers (you conveniently omitted that part of my post) to back up your assertion that

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 108):
With AC's huge losses, I suspect AC is not making a go of LAX either, despite their 4x or 5x daily flights.

Think about it -- when an airline is losing money (as is AC), then at least 50% of their flights (or, by extension, 50% of their routes or route network) must be losing money on a fully cost-burdened basis. Alternately, profitable carriers, such as WS, have a MAJORITY of their flights, and by extention a majority of their routes, as profitable on a fully burdened cost basis. So, since AC is losing money, chances are more likely than not that YYZ-LAX is losing money.

Yes I know every route contributes passengers and revenue to other routes via their hubs, but at some analytical point ALL revenues and ALL costs must be allocated back to individual routes and markets. No one outside AC knows the individual profit or loss on any individual routes, but it is clear the numbers on most routes are negative since AC overall loses money (more specifically, ALOT of money).
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
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MarcoPoloWorld
Posts: 340
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Thu Dec 08, 2011 2:59 am

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 62):
law requires the head office to be in Montreal

Sounds like some kind of command-style diktat more reminiscent of a planned economy rather than a market economy. But more importantly, it is seemingly symptomatic of Canadian aviation policy in general, with over-regulation and over-taxation of the industry.

It would probably be better to just let someone like Emirates Airline (EK) take over the mainline international and domestic to/from/within Canada, with the gov't purchasing service from EK for service to remote areas that it deems essential. Seriously. It would mean lower fares and better service for all Canadians.   
 
Whiteguy
Posts: 1524
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Thu Dec 08, 2011 3:44 am

Quoting MarcoPoloWorld (Reply 134):
It would probably be better to just let someone like Emirates Airline (EK) take over the mainline international and domestic to/from/within Canada, with the gov't purchasing service from EK for service to remote areas that it deems essential. Seriously. It would mean lower fares and better service for all Canadians.   

Seriously???? Stupidest thing I ever heard. You really think an airline like EK would routes within Canada just do us a favor?? They're just like any other airline, they are aiming to make money. I would rather see WS take over everything than have a non Canadian airline come in.

The service in Canada is just fine and the fares are low. I think people should be a little more realistic when it comes to the cost of flying!!!
 
threepoint
Posts: 1294
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Thu Dec 08, 2011 4:15 am

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 133):
Think about it -- when an airline is losing money (as is AC), then at least 50% of their flights (or, by extension, 50% of their routes or route network) must be losing money on a fully cost-burdened basis.

I did think about it, and have spotted some obvious flaws in this logic. That the airline is not profitable is not up for debate. But to state that half or more routes must be losing money indicates a minimal or negligible grasp on basic economics. It is possible to have 99 routes make a little bit of profit and 1 route lose money by the barrel-full. Wherever did you get the idea that the balance between profit and loss is tied to the percentage of profitable routes?

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 133):
WS, have a MAJORITY of their flights, and by extention a majority of their routes, as profitable on a fully burdened cost basis.

For the same reasons listed above, this is also patently absurd. In theory, a handful of routes could subsidize the rest of the network. This is probably not the case of course, but in no fashion does the fact an airline is profitable mean that most of their routes are too. Perhaps they make money on their fuel hedging. Perhaps it's ancillary fees & charges. Maybe they've simply got really good investments elsewhere. Or maybe they make a killing selling headsets in the cabin.

To use your own term: think about it.
The nice thing about a mistake is the pleasure it gives others.
 
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yyz717
Posts: 15775
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Thu Dec 08, 2011 5:03 am

Quoting MarcoPoloWorld (Reply 134):
Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 62):
law requires the head office to be in Montreal

Sounds like some kind of command-style diktat more reminiscent of a planned economy rather than a market economy.

Well said. Not to mention the discrimination against English speaking Canadians who can't or won't migrate to QC due to the language laws.

Quoting threepoint (Reply 136):
It is possible to have 99 routes make a little bit of profit and 1 route lose money by the barrel-full.

Nope. Not possible. That one route would be dropped asap. My point is valid.....when the losses are as horrendous as AC's.....you can be pretty sure most routes lose money on a fully burdened basis. I do buy the middling argument away from your extreme example of one route causing ALL the losses or profits at any airline to perhaps 1/4 or 1/3 of routes (if not 1/2) at a break even airline providing most of the profit or loss.....but that would afford that carrier the opportunity to do some major hub or route restructuring.....despite the horrendous losses at AC....I see nothing of this....just endless tinkering of a broken model by the same buffoon-ish management.

Quoting threepoint (Reply 136):
But to state that half or more routes must be losing money indicates a minimal or negligible grasp on basic economics.

To deny this likelihood is to have no grasp on cost allocation models, which is part of basic economics.

Quoting whiteguy (Reply 135):
Quoting MarcoPoloWorld (Reply 134):
It would probably be better to just let someone like Emirates Airline (EK) take over the mainline international and domestic to/from/within Canada, with the gov't purchasing service from EK for service to remote areas that it deems essential. Seriously. It would mean lower fares and better service for all Canadians.

Seriously???? Stupidest thing I ever heard. You really think an airline like EK would routes within Canada just do us a favor?? They're just like any other airline, they are aiming to make money. I would rather see WS take over everything than have a non Canadian airline come in.

Ummm, he was beeing sarcastic. Nothing wrong with some levity. If we wait for AC profits for a lighter mood...we'll be waiting forever!

Quoting threepoint (Reply 136):
In theory, a handful of routes could subsidize the rest of the network.

The loss making routes would be cut by an reasonably competent mgmt team.

Quoting threepoint (Reply 136):
in no fashion does the fact an airline is profitable mean that most of their routes are too.

More or less, it does.

Quoting threepoint (Reply 136):
Perhaps they make money on their fuel hedging.

Most airlines lose some or gain some on fuel hedging. It can occasionally make or break a quarter but it can never be a sustainable strategy.

Quoting threepoint (Reply 136):
To use your own term: think about it.

And back at you.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
lnglive1011yyz
Posts: 1502
Joined: Thu Oct 23, 2003 12:23 pm

RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Thu Dec 08, 2011 1:49 pm

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 138):
Which would explain why over 60% of AC's head office staff are anglophone, right? You do seem to be somewhat challenged by facts.

Not taking sides or arguing, but can YOU also provide your quoted stat?

Thanks!

1011yyz
Pack your bags, we're going on a sympathy trip!
 
Kaiarahi
Posts: 1810
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2009 6:55 pm

RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Thu Dec 08, 2011 1:54 pm

Quoting lnglive1011yyz (Reply 139):

Office of the Commissioner of Official Languages.
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
lnglive1011yyz
Posts: 1502
Joined: Thu Oct 23, 2003 12:23 pm

RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Thu Dec 08, 2011 3:00 pm

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 140):
Office of the Commissioner of Official Languages.

Thanks!

1011yyz
Pack your bags, we're going on a sympathy trip!
 
abrelosojos
Posts: 4302
Joined: Sun May 29, 2005 6:48 am

RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Thu Dec 08, 2011 3:49 pm

Quoting YTZ (Reply 130):
Quoting abrelosojos (Reply 127):
= I don't have a time for a deep dive, but average fare on YYZ-YUL pre and post WS has dropped from around 250 to around 200 (today). Given WS has stolen passengers, one can do the revenue implication.

Are you sure it wasn't Porter that had that effect and not WS?


= Yes. Porter was in the market earlier and while ACs market share fell, fares did not. The effect of WS on fares were stronger than PD's effect.

Saludos,
A
Live, and let live.
 
ytz
Posts: 3529
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 12:31 am

RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Thu Dec 08, 2011 4:03 pm

One issue for AC that could push them to CCAA is their rising refinancing costs. I'm wondering if that could happen. At some point, if bond holders keep betting against the company, profits will keep dropping as financing costs rise. At some point it may become worthwhile for AC to go into CCAA just so they can reduce borrowing costs. Bond holders might make this a self-fulfilling prophecy.
 
threepoint
Posts: 1294
Joined: Fri Oct 14, 2005 10:49 am

RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Thu Dec 08, 2011 6:00 pm

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 137):
endless tinkering of a broken model by the same buffoon-ish management.

While not immune from error, I think we can agree that the current management has done a pretty good job in the last few years considering the challenges faced by AC specifically and the industry in general. Not one member of this website can or has suggested an alternate strategy that would result in AC's continued profitability, given the environmental, legal and contractual obligations under which they operate. The first one who does so will likely receive an offer from HQ within the hour.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 137):
To deny this likelihood

I wasn't denying that half the routes need to be profitable (or not) to ensure the carrier is profitable (or not). I was stating that it is possible to have a few key routes make the difference between profit or loss. This may or may not be the case at AC; neither you nor I know for sure. But I was exposing some flawed logic. The financial state of a carrier is not necessarily dependent upon a percentage of profitable routes flown.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 137):
The loss making routes would be cut by an reasonably competent mgmt team.

Unless of course they were bound by legislation that imposed some unique challenges upon AC alone.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 137):
Most airlines lose some or gain some on fuel hedging. It can occasionally make or break a quarter but it can never be a sustainable strategy.

Again, I was using that as one of several examples to illustrate that airlines have more revenue streams that simply fare-paying bums in seats.
The nice thing about a mistake is the pleasure it gives others.
 
Viscount724
Posts: 19316
Joined: Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:32 pm

RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Thu Dec 08, 2011 10:54 pm

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 137):
Quoting threepoint (Reply 136):
In theory, a handful of routes could subsidize the rest of the network.

The loss making routes would be cut by an reasonably competent mgmt team.

AC hasn't been hesitant to drop losing routes. I can think of quite a few transborder routes they started and quickly stopped when they turned out to be uneconomic.

And AC has been reporting consistent operating profits recently. Their losses are largely related to costs that aren't directly related to their route network (pension funding etc.) Do you really think AC is operating dozens of routes that don't generate operating profits?

For a network carrier like AC you also have to look at the contribution of each route to the network. Even a route operated by a CRJ or Dash 8 with a 25% load factor may be profitable on a network basis if a significant number of those passengers are business travellers paying high fares and connecting to/from longhaul or international flights.
 
UALWN
Posts: 2186
Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2009 3:27 pm

RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Thu Dec 08, 2011 11:53 pm

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 137):
Not to mention the discrimination against English speaking Canadians who can't or won't migrate to QC due to the language laws.

Discrimination? Why? Because French is the foremost language in QC? Is Mexico discriminating against English speaking Canadians too because they insist in speaking Spanish?

There's a fair amount of English speakers living happily in QC. If the others don't want to move because French is spoken in QC, then, too bad.
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WestJet747
Posts: 1950
Joined: Sat Aug 06, 2011 7:43 pm

RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Fri Dec 09, 2011 12:41 am

Quoting UALWN (Reply 145):
Discrimination? Why? Because French is the foremost language in QC? Is Mexico discriminating against English speaking Canadians too because they insist in speaking Spanish?

There's a fair amount of English speakers living happily in QC. If the others don't want to move because French is spoken in QC, then, too bad.

I both agree and disagree with you. I completely believe in the notion that "if you don't like it, don't move there". There's no arguing that. But as an anglophone who grew up in Quebec, I can definitely attest to the difficulties faced by the English-speaking population in Montreal. To say it is discrimination is a bit of a stretch in some regards, but there are definitely francophones who don't always make you feel welcome in your own hometown. The federal government has given Quebec way too much power with respect to language laws, which ultimately trickle down to AC as a Quebec-based corporation. I have, on several occasions, applied to internship programs in Quebec yet I never receive a call despite being entirely qualified. It seems the common denominator in all my rejections is that I am not fluent in French (my written is satisfactory, but my conversational is [i]awful[/]).

I guess the moral of my story is: it's really AC's loss since they are bound by rules that force them to hire bi-lingual employees (in a majority of positions) as opposed to hiring the "best-of-the-best" regardless of tongue...
Flying refined.
 
UALWN
Posts: 2186
Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2009 3:27 pm

RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Fri Dec 09, 2011 1:30 am

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 146):
It seems the common denominator in all my rejections is that I am not fluent in French

Why is that discriminatory? If you were to apply to a job in Germany and you were disqualified for your poor German, would you call that discriminatory? Or more to the point, if you were a French-speaking Swiss citizen from, say, Geneva, tried to land a job in Zurich and were turned down because of your lack of German, would you find that discriminatory towards the French-speaking Swiss? This happens all the time, I can assure you. In Switzerland, in Belgium, in Spain... In all multi-lingual countries such as Canada.
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YYZatcboy
Posts: 1183
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Fri Dec 09, 2011 1:53 am

Quoting UALWN (Reply 147):
Why is that discriminatory?

He never said that part was. What he said was on the border of discriminatory was the treatment of the english minority on occasion in Quebec both by the government and some of the citizens.
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cmf
Posts: 3120
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RE: Air Canada Struggling To Avoid Bankruptcy

Fri Dec 09, 2011 3:01 am

Quoting YYZatcboy (Reply 148):

He never said that part was. What he said was on the border of discriminatory was the treatment of the english minority on occasion in Quebec both by the government and some of the citizens.

In all fairness, I do think French only in the rest of the country is even harder.

It is so stupid how it is English or French because of stupid pride. Accept it is a bi-lingual country and make sure kids learn both. Will help everyone.
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