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sierrakilo44
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Qantas Official Long Term Plans To 2021

Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:54 am

Qantas has released their strategy outlook to the ASX including it's fleet plan to 2021, it's in the 120 page report in this link dated 12/12/11:

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/c...o?by=asxCode&asxCode=QAN#headlines

Pertinent points:

Only confirmed aircraft for Qantas international by 2021 = 14 or 20 A380's
No 787's confirmed to be used by Qantas mainline.
No new or planned orders for any mainline international aircraft.
A330's to only fly domestic routes.
747-400 fleet to be reduced from 26 to 15 aircraft by 2013 with no noted replacement except for 2 additional A380's.

[Edited 2011-12-12 18:10:53]
 
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PM
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RE: Qantas Official Long Term Plans To 2021

Tue Dec 13, 2011 2:29 am

Wow. They'll be flying about 28 A330s domestically by 2016? So much for those old threads about how the A330 couldn't (didn't) work for QF domestically.

Quoting sierrakilo44 (Thread starter):
Only confirmed aircraft for Qantas international by 2021 = 14 or 20 A380's

Yep. Slide #109 makes that clear. All QF international flying will be on A380s.  Wow!

Fascinating. Thank you.
 
tullamarine
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RE: Qantas Official Long Term Plans To 2021

Tue Dec 13, 2011 2:33 am

I do believe that there will be an airline flying int'l routes for QF using 787s and A320neos also and this isn't mentioned in the investor pack directly. This airline will be Asian based. It is unlikely to be called QF or wear a traditional QF livery.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
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Stitch
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RE: Qantas Official Long Term Plans To 2021

Tue Dec 13, 2011 2:37 am

Quoting PM (Reply 1):
Yep. Slide #109 makes that clear. All QF international flying will be on A380s.    

Well there is that grey box at the bottom that says "Additional B787 Allocation TBD based on return measures", so the 787 might yet end up in Kangaroo Colors on International missions.
 
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PM
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RE: Qantas Official Long Term Plans To 2021

Tue Dec 13, 2011 2:56 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
the 787 might yet end up in Kangaroo Colors on International missions.

Let's hope so. It would look good!
 
qf002
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RE: Qantas Official Long Term Plans To 2021

Tue Dec 13, 2011 4:09 am

Quoting PM (Reply 1):
Wow. They'll be flying about 28 A330s domestically by 2016? So much for those old threads about how the A330 couldn't (didn't) work for QF domestically.

Ikr! Makes sense though, and is definitely reassuring to know that QF domestic isn't going anywhere. I think that c100 737s by 2021 is more shocking tbh (definitely see a MAX order coming up very soon).

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
Well there is that grey box at the bottom that says "Additional B787 Allocation TBD based on return measures", so the 787 might yet end up in Kangaroo Colors on International missions.

I agree that this is hardly conclusive. The point of the slide is to show that there will only be 5 fleet types by 2021, which is a reduction of 2 from today. Not to specifically address QF's 787 numbers. It was less than 2 months ago that Lyell Strambi was in Seattle talking to reporters about how QF will get 787s from 2014.
 
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EK413
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RE: Qantas Official Long Term Plans To 2021

Tue Dec 13, 2011 4:25 am

No surprise here... Expand the Star and kill the kangaroo...

EK413
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JQflightie
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RE: Qantas Official Long Term Plans To 2021

Tue Dec 13, 2011 4:45 am

ok, i've been raising this point everywhere now...... what/who are going to be doing the A330/B763 International flying? Are we just going to leave the carcus out in the sun and let the wolves pick at it??
When is my next holiday?
 
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mariner
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RE: Qantas Official Long Term Plans To 2021

Tue Dec 13, 2011 4:46 am

Quoting JQflightie (Reply 7):
ok, i've been raising this point everywhere now...... what/who are going to be doing the A330/B763 International flying? Are we just going to leave the carcus out in the sun and let the wolves pick at it??

Presumably the 787.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
Lufthansa
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RE: Qantas Official Long Term Plans To 2021

Tue Dec 13, 2011 4:48 am

And this all fits perfectly in with my theory that
the new asian airline will indeed be getting the 787 but that couldn't
be reviled just yet because of political sensitivities.

It makes perfect sense. 787 3 times a day from the Major capitals to the Asian Hub,
A320s feeding there for flights of up to 5 or 6 hours deep into china and india, with those same
aircraft then feeding more 787s continuing onto Europe. The 2 slots being leased to BA will be taken
up by the new Asian outfit to link this hub at ideal times to LHR, and I would expect services to Frankfurt,
Paris, Rome and Possibly Amsterdam at a minimum in addition. BA then send a flight from London to this hub
for the last remaining bank (assuming 3 banks a day, which is in line with SIA/EK and even thai) to complete the picture, or
if it is KUL based possibly new bestie MAS. Then strong O & D hubs at key 'gateways' get direct A380 service.
Very simple. End of the line carrier problem solved. QF existing staff very pissed off because they now miss out
on lots of seniority advancement. QF unions pissed off because they will have zero influence. Australian PAX come back because those who previously complained about things like SIA offering 3 times a day to Brisbane now have a similar option from the QF group. Possible joint venture/anti trust immunity type arrangement with MAS allowing either carrier to sell the route and both to absorb expenses.

787s = low risk for these flights as in a 3 class configuration they'll only seat about 215. in other words, it should only take about 3 or 4 A320s to feed 2 787 flights, assuming that all aircraft have a significant chunk of O & D passengers.

Then heading in directions other than Asia or Europe, everything is passed through 'super hubs' gateway cities.
Potential issues: Cities like Brisbane and Melbourne to Hong Kong. Unless the plan is in these markets to seed the business traffic and concentrate on the more leisure side via JQ?


Quoting EK413 (Reply 6):

No surprise here... Expand the Star and kill the kangaroo...
 
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PM
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RE: Qantas Official Long Term Plans To 2021

Tue Dec 13, 2011 4:58 am

Quoting Lufthansa (Reply 9):
the new asian airline will indeed be getting the 787 but that couldn't
be reviled just yet because of political sensitivities

Actually, I think it has already been quite widely reviled...  
 
fiscal
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RE: Qantas Official Long Term Plans To 2021

Tue Dec 13, 2011 5:33 am

Poses an interesting question for Perth. Will it be A380 to Singapore and beyond, or JQ or Asian Premium?

[Edited 2011-12-12 21:35:48]
 
Lufthansa
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RE: Qantas Official Long Term Plans To 2021

Tue Dec 13, 2011 6:04 am

Quoting fiscal (Reply 11):
Poses an interesting question for Perth. Will it be A380 to Singapore and beyond, or JQ or Asian Premium?

If the new hub is in SIN or KUL, that probably works better for PER than any other city. 787s 3 maybe even 4 times a day to the hub, with connections everywhere from London to Tokyo. No need to send an A380 to PER unless demand to Africa grows substantially, in which case you could cycle it through JNB.
 
AusA380
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RE: Qantas Official Long Term Plans To 2021

Tue Dec 13, 2011 9:13 am

Essentially, ADL, PER will no longer exist with QF International (although they have effectively given up ADL anyway), and QF Services within Asia apart from A380 Services via SIN to LHR and 1 to HKG.

What does this mean for Japan (currently not all 747), HKG not all 747/A380, China etc where an A330/787 would be the aircraft type.

Quoting mariner (Reply 8):
Presumably the 787.

mariner

The aircraft fleet on slide 118 only has A380's for QF international.

I expect ADL will be dependent on the Malaysian connection to Asia and Europe.
 
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mariner
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RE: Qantas Official Long Term Plans To 2021

Tue Dec 13, 2011 9:48 am

Quoting AusA380 (Reply 13):
The aircraft fleet on slide 118 only has A380's for QF international.

Yes, I've seen the slides. And I've seen the note about the 787.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
Well there is that grey box at the bottom that says "Additional B787 Allocation TBD based on return measures", so the 787 might yet end up in Kangaroo Colors on International missions.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
QFA380SYD
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RE: Qantas Official Long Term Plans To 2021

Tue Dec 13, 2011 10:02 am

I don't no why Qantas bothers to order 35 787 9 and 15 787 8 when they can go for 30 years easily.
I heard this on a Sydney talk back radio station and their was an Anymous emailer and he apparentley worked for Qantas and he said in the next 20 years that Jetstar would be taking over all QF of International Routes and Domestic Routes except Los Angles and London.

I really didn't believe this until this Report came out from ASX report came out saying only A380 and 787 will be operating on International Routes.

Please say if you believe this or not.

Tom
 
Flyingsottsman
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RE: Qantas Official Long Term Plans To 2021

Tue Dec 13, 2011 10:05 am

Quoting AusA380 (Reply 13):
Essentially, ADL, PER will no longer exist with QF International

Yes both those citys can say good bye Qantas and hello Jetstar.
 
tayser
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RE: Qantas Official Long Term Plans To 2021

Tue Dec 13, 2011 10:17 am

ADL only has a token effort anyhow. Is ADL really going to miss 3x weekly ADL-SIN which originates in SYD or MEL anyhow?

If what everyone is talking about on here is correct (787s to Asian-based QF), then you gotta ask: what about North America?

only LAX or DFW? BORING! SFO and YVR are 787 destinations if there ever were any from Australian ports!

but yes, thank god they put a little disclaimer re: 787s in QF (VH-rego) as 'TBD'.
 
qf002
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RE: Qantas Official Long Term Plans To 2021

Tue Dec 13, 2011 11:58 am

Quoting tayser (Reply 17):
If what everyone is talking about on here is correct (787s to Asian-based QF), then you gotta ask: what about North America?

only LAX or DFW? BORING! SFO and YVR are 787 destinations if there ever were any from Australian ports!

Agreed! I guess it wouldn't be too hard to run SIN-SYD-SFO-SYD-SIN rotations (and similar). If they were allowed to then I could see Qantas basing their entire operation off shore and just running extended operations, with aircraft being away from base for 4-5 days at a time.
 
fiscal
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RE: Qantas Official Long Term Plans To 2021

Tue Dec 13, 2011 12:04 pm

Quoting Flyingsottsman (Reply 16):
Yes both those citys can say good bye Qantas and hello Jetstar

If that is the case then crap - I do not like Jetstar.....I want a full service airline......I live in Perth, I deserve it....

Well at least there is still Malaysia, Thai, Singapore, Cathay, SAA, Emirates, China Southern, Air Asia X, New Zealand.
 
tayser
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RE: Qantas Official Long Term Plans To 2021

Tue Dec 13, 2011 12:14 pm

^ welcome to the world of MEL... and BNE........ and pretty much everywhere that is not SYD.
 
mogandoCI
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RE: Qantas Official Long Term Plans To 2021

Tue Dec 13, 2011 2:44 pm

Quoting tayser (Reply 20):
^ welcome to the world of MEL... and BNE........ and pretty much everywhere that is not SYD.

Isn't it ironic... the *Queensland* and *Northern Territory* Aerial Services largely ignores either state

Sydney is a lovely town but a single hub strategy is not proper for Australia's geography. You don't see AirCanada flying everything out of YYZ either.
 
Lufthansa
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RE: Qantas Official Long Term Plans To 2021

Tue Dec 13, 2011 11:08 pm

Quoting tayser (Reply 17):
only LAX or DFW? BORING! SFO and YVR are 787 destinations if there ever were any from Australian ports!

I think it's obvious. Without having the hub/partner big at the other end (= higher yielding business traffic) they're gonna seed the business traffic to United or Air Canada and send jetstar. I think they're gonna look at those cities like they look at MAN. Just somewhere that can't support the QF model. Now, the fact you see carriers like BA and AF there would suggest otherwise. But a Key difference is BA and friends are gonna carry both high yeilding london and paris business traffic and business traffic headed all over europe. QF will probably send that type of traffic via it's LAX operations direct into BNE/MEL/AKL that isn't sydney bound. With all the tech stuff happening in the bay area QF may just consider this "United's Turf" and consider it easier to compete on price with JQ? As for Canada, well if you're headed to the central or eastern parts of Canada LAX probably works just as well as DFW or Vancouver. Not much of a disadvantage.
 
tayser
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RE: Qantas Official Long Term Plans To 2021

Wed Dec 14, 2011 10:49 am

You're underrating SFO. And the 'UA's turf" argument is bunkum - just like their service across the Pacific - there's a damn good reason they're cheapest of all the carriers who fly AU-US!

787s ~220-250 seats as opposed to the 744s with ~350seats QF used to fly there. SFO O&D has got to be more than 250 seats a day from Australia (Thus two ports from Australia to SFO a day) spreading the yields and the limited AA feed is just filler -

AA

SFO-JFK - multiple flights
SFO-ORD - multiple flights
SFO-MIA - multiple flights
SFO-DFW - multiple flights

in effect, just feeding from JFK and ORD would probably be sufficient enough given they're the highest yielding destinations in the USA!

AS (QF puts codes on their flights where AA does as well ex LAX)

SFO-PDX
SFO-SEA

And I wouldn't rule out Westjet entering some kind of agreement (or better yet joining OneWorld) which would provide a good feed for QF in YVR.
 
JQflightie
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RE: Qantas Official Long Term Plans To 2021

Wed Dec 14, 2011 3:41 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 8):
Quoting fiscal (Reply 11):
Quoting Lufthansa (Reply 12):
Quoting AusA380 (Reply 13):

In this plan, is says, no 787's planned for mainline services...

Quoting Flyingsottsman (Reply 16):

Your joke is not funny  
When is my next holiday?
 
qf002
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RE: Qantas Official Long Term Plans To 2021

Thu Dec 15, 2011 1:13 am

Quoting JQflightie (Reply 24):
In this plan, is says, no 787's planned for mainline services...

Where? The information given only indicates they haven't made up their minds on the distribution of aircraft yet, not that they intend to have no QF 787's. In any case, it would be strategically stupid to release your exact plans for aircraft deployment and distribution this far out -- if QF had said in that presentation that they expect mainline to be flying 100+ 787's by 2021 then they'd have basically been giving their competition a heads up, giving them a decade to account for planned growth. In fact, the strategist in me says that they have plans far beyond what they're willing to share, but to comply with ASX regulations/requirements they have had to cover their arses by being as vague as possible... Remember that the actual purpose of the slide is to show increased fleet efficiency over a 10 year period, not provide a breakdown of the future fleet for fans...
 
YYCowboy
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RE: Qantas Official Long Term Plans To 2021

Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:37 am

Quoting Lufthansa (Reply 22):
As for Canada, well if you're headed to the central or eastern parts of Canada LAX probably works just as well as DFW or Vancouver. Not much of a disadvantage.

You couldn't be any further from the truth with this statment.
Why would ANYONE, Canadian or Australian want to transit the United States, for traffic between our countries, if they didn't have to.
The United States is a road block, bottle neck and quite frankly, a needless pain in the butt. Canadians do not thrill for US customs and their neurosis dejour. Australians may find it amusing when its part of an adventure.
Mind you, on a North American run, they may find it nice for a 2 country tour anyway.

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 21):
Sydney is a lovely town but a single hub strategy is not proper for Australia's geography. You don't see AirCanada flying everything out of YYZ either.

I think Air Canada should get Brisbane and Melbourne up and running from YVR as soon as 787's get here.
Its hard to soar like an eagle when you're flying with turkeys
 
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zeke
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RE: Qantas Official Long Term Plans To 2021

Thu Dec 15, 2011 3:43 am

Quoting qf002 (Reply 25):

I do not think QF international will operate the 787s, I think the Australian tax system makes it too unattractive on an international scale.

That does not mean that an aircraft that looks like a QF aircraft could not do the flying, for example. Jet connect 787 flying AKL-PER-HKG. That would reduce costs significantly.

The note has been in QF fleet plans for some time now, so has their intention to expand operations offshore.

Quoting YYCowboy (Reply 26):

I think Air Canada should worry about staying out of bankruptcy first.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
tayser
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RE: Qantas Official Long Term Plans To 2021

Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:44 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 27):
I do not think QF international will operate the 787s, I think the Australian tax system makes it too unattractive on an international scale.

Please explain.

Australia is one of the lowest taxing country's in the developed world - pound for pound. Sure the headline corporate tax rate is higher than many countries in Asia but the cost to set up a business in Australia less than cumbersome than many western/first world countries.

Labour costs a lot more here - we're victims of our own success over many decades - that is: we dont have a third world labour market in a "developing" region.
 
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zeke
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RE: Qantas Official Long Term Plans To 2021

Thu Dec 15, 2011 3:07 pm

Quoting tayser (Reply 28):
Please explain.

Have a read of this, QF & VB have covered it in detail.

http://taxreview.treasury.gov.au/con...d_Virgin_Blue_Airlines_Pty_Ltd.pdf
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
qf002
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RE: Qantas Official Long Term Plans To 2021

Thu Dec 15, 2011 3:23 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 27):
I do not think QF international will operate the 787s, I think the Australian tax system makes it too unattractive on an international scale.

It's certainly an interesting point to bring to the discussion, but I don't think it's a serious factor in QF deciding how to operate their 787's. The tax system is going to be an issue for them wherever the airline that operations the 787s is based (because the Group that owns the airline must remain an Australian company, based in Australia and paying tax in Australia) so I doubt has any real influence. One might argue that by operating them from an offshore hub you're adding another layer of complexity to the tax system QF is faced with (ie a whole extra nation's tax legislation to deal with).

Quoting zeke (Reply 27):
Jet connect 787 flying AKL-PER-HKG

Hadn't considered NZ as an offshore hub. NZ airlines hold basically identical rights in terms of carriage from Australia as Australian ones (at least that's my understanding) so would avoid traffic rights issues (ie SIN-SYD-LAX would be easy). Would the cost savings be significant enough to make it a worthwhile full scale operation though?

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