AC And Africa?

SN-MD11 · Tue Dec 13, 2011 3:26 pm

Hi fellow a.netters,

Recently I talked to an ex-colleague of mine, currently holding an executive position at Brussels Airlines. He told me he didn't understand why AC isn't flying to any African destinations. SN and AC are codesharing on YUL-BRU and BRU-Africa and the Africa-Canada pax figures are sky rocketing in BRU. I know LH, AF and even AT are in the same case.

There is a growing african diaspora in Canada, many coming from the french speaking sub-saharian nations like Cameroon or Ivory Coast, and I don't understand why AC is ignoring Africa, it's a yield jackpot.

Some hints ?

pnd100 · Tue Dec 13, 2011 3:29 pm

From sources at AC the refrain is the same - "Wait until the 787s arrive"
As a Canadian I am hopeful but I get the feeling it will still be several years before Canada-Africa is a reality

blueflyer · Tue Dec 13, 2011 3:44 pm

I believe the 787's arrival will change that. For now, it has probably to do with availability of aircraft. What's the better use from AC's point-of-view? A single 767 between YUL and BRU to connect with SN's entire African network, or use the same aircraft on a thrice-weekly YUL-DKR and not have any connecting traffic in DKR to the rest of Africa?

I do wonder whether the yield is that high, however. Last summer, BRU was upgraded to an A330 on the strength of connecting (Africa) traffic, or so I was told but the 767 is scheduled to remain on the route throughout the summer next year. I'm hoping it will change still because AC's A330 is a very nice ride.

longhauler · Tue Dec 13, 2011 4:13 pm

"We will be flying to Africa" has been stated at Air Canada since I was a kid and followed the industry closely. (A long time ago.)

But, really it comes down to numbers. With the advent of alliances, airlines now know exactly how many people want to fly between two points, how often and what they are willing to pay.

Same thing with Africa. Through Star Alliance partners and information, Air Canada can tell exactly if direct travel to Africa is warranted. As of yet there are no flights, we must assume the numbers aren't there.

connies4ever · Tue Dec 13, 2011 8:26 pm

Quoting blueflyer (Reply 2):
I believe the 787's arrival will change that

But let's not overlook the fact that the 788s are intended as 763 replacements, in the main. There is a slightly greater than a 1:1 ratio of 788s to 763s, so some growth is possible, but India and China will get targeted by the 'surplus' 788s before Africa. Also possibly AKL and MEL. If you're AC, what would you rather have: lots of VFR traffic wanting rock bottom prices or a good fill of J with lots of yield ?

9252fly · Tue Dec 13, 2011 8:37 pm

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 4):
There is a slightly greater than a 1:1 ratio of 788s to 763s, so some growth is possible

Doing some basic math tells me that the current fleet has 30 763's and 8 A333's. With a firm order for 37 B788's,I suspect there will be no growth,although,they will have the capability to fly different routes. There are still 23 B787 options,that's where we may see growth,or a possible B789 order to replace some of the B777's,specifically the B77L's.

longhauler · Tue Dec 13, 2011 9:17 pm

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 4):
But let's not overlook the fact that the 788s are intended as 763 replacements, in the main.

Quoting 9252fly (Reply 5):
Doing some basic math tells me that the current fleet has 30 763's and 8 A333's. With a firm order for 37 B788's,I suspect there will be no growth

The current fleet plan has all of the B767s remaining until the delivery of the 16th B787, then a one for one replacement from that point, so some growth is planned.

pnd100 · Tue Dec 13, 2011 10:32 pm

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 4):
If you're AC, what would you rather have: lots of VFR traffic wanting rock bottom prices or a good fill of J with lots of yield ?

Although I agree with you that Canada-India will be the target of surplus AC 788s, the Indian market from Canada is primarily VFR. It is very unlike the Canada-China market in terms of mix

Thenoflyzone · Wed Dec 14, 2011 1:19 am

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 4):
If you're AC, what would you rather have: lots of VFR traffic wanting rock bottom prices or a good fill of J with lots of yield ?

AC's latest intl expansions were to BCN and ATH, both predominantly VFR routes. Personally, i would bet top dollar that YUL-North Africa is high on AC's list of first 787 destinations.

Speaking of YUL-BRU, anyone know why an A333 will not operate this route this summer? I know YYC-FRA is upgauged to an A333 due to LH leaving YYC, but according to my "calculations", AC will deploy its A333 this coming summer to:

YYZ-FCO
YYZ-LHR
YYZ-MUC
YUL-LHR
YYC-FRA
YYZ-FRA
+ a daily rotation YVR -YYZ-YVR (with a possible overnight at YVR, not sure though)

So, where is the 8th A333 going this summer, because i only count 7 routes that can be completed with one airframe. Also, if that last rotation does overnight in YVR, i feel that's a waste for an A333, unless it is for maintenance purposes.

Thenoflyzone

[Edited 2011-12-13 18:19:59]

connies4ever · Wed Dec 14, 2011 2:23 am

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 8):
AC's latest intl expansions were to BCN and ATH, both predominantly VFR routes. Personally, i would bet top dollar that YUL-North Africa is high on AC's list of first 787 destinations.

BCN & ATH are serviced primarily to feed the cruise industry, and I believe using the non-JF 763s. Also, I think service is seasonal.

As for YUL-North Africa, CMN is the only destination that would make any sense for them, and also seasonally (winter). It also would be a low-yield market with the non-JF 763s.

flyyul · Wed Dec 14, 2011 2:23 am

you forgot YYZ-ZRH (AC878)

Thenoflyzone · Wed Dec 14, 2011 3:06 am

Quoting flyyul (Reply 10):

ahh..yes....missed that one altogether.

So then I guess it means that an A333 is most definately overnighting in YVR for maintenance.
It's then safe to say that the only reason why YUL-BRU is downgauged to a B763 this summer is due to a lack of A333s, and not lack of demand.

Thenoflyzone

[Edited 2011-12-13 19:08:17]

flyyul · Wed Dec 14, 2011 3:14 am

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 11):
ahh..yes....missed that one altogether.

So then I guess it means that an A333 is most definately overnighting in YVR for maintenance.
It's then safe to say that the only reason why YUL-BRU is downgauged to a B763 this summer is due to a lack of A333s, and not lack of demand.

Thenoflyzone

[Edited 2011-12-13 19:08:17]

Demand was strong. I think the company had issues with the Rapidair, and since there's no A330 pilot base in Montreal, the slightest delay would have a impact on the operation. In June there were 3 operations that had to operate next day as day-trippers.

In a perfect world BRUYUL would be A333. Eventually it'll be a 787

(in 201X)

md11dude · Wed Dec 14, 2011 3:28 am

Quoting pnd100 (Reply 1):

Can't The 763 not fly YYZ or YUL to points in africa already? Or would that mean sarificing other routes? The 763 would work fine until the 788 arrives, so techniclly they could lease a few more in the mean time couln't they. Is the 763 still high in demand?

yenne09 · Wed Dec 14, 2011 3:33 am

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 9):
As for YUL-North Africa, CMN is the only destination that would make any sense for them, and also seasonally (winter). It also would be a low-yield market with the non-JF 763s.

Air Canada has not the authorization from the Canadian government to serve Casablanca. There would have been a lot of opportunities to serve Africa because there are a lot of Canadians working throughout Africa for many Canadian companies. There are a lot of Canadians traveling between Canada and Africa. The reason is elsewhere.

flyyul · Wed Dec 14, 2011 3:58 am

Air Canada

Quoting yenne09 (Reply 14):

Quoting yenne09 (Reply 14):

Air Canada has not the authorization from the Canadian government to serve Casablanca. There would have been a lot of opportunities to serve Africa because there are a lot of Canadians working throughout Africa for many Canadian companies. There are a lot of Canadians traveling between Canada and Africa. The reason is elsewhere.

Air Canada's business targets business travel where there typically has high yield business and or leisure traffic. In the case of Africa, the only reason why AC has not served these markets it's because it's cost structure is simply too high for the types of yields offering in these markets. Hence why AC is looking at LCC, now if only the pilots and other unions would play ball....

longhauler · Wed Dec 14, 2011 5:34 am

Quoting flyyul (Reply 15):
Hence why AC is looking at LCC, now if only the pilots and other unions would play ball....

You're kidding right?

Right now, Air Canada's Flight Operations cost per seat mile is among the lowest in North America and Europe, including lower than Westjet and Southwest. And .. with the Third Quarter results, the average cost per equivalent full time employee, (including PENSIONS and benefits), is within CAD100 of Westjet!

If AC truly wants a LCC, then they are going to have to cut costs above the union employee level. For example the $39M in bonuses given to managers in the last 18 months, over and above wages!

idjim319 · Wed Dec 14, 2011 6:15 am

AC simply have nothing in the fleet to serve Africa. The 763 fleet is maxed out, tired and struggling to keep up with the current schedule. AC are working these planes hard. The A330s are a relatively small sub fleet serving Europe and are doing their best. AC is in risk management mode concerning the A330 and B763 fleet because of age and flexibility. The 77W fleet is a bit mixed up but not as serious. AC really needs the 787 quickly and their plans have been delayed lots waiting. It is getting costly to keep over-aged 767s running full out.

YYZ-JNB will be a money maker if AC can control costs. There is not much else that feeding to UA or LH wind make sense. I seriously doubt that anything but JNB will work for AC. The rest of Africa is better served through a one stop with its uber partner in FRA.

I think there are more opportunities for new long haul to MEL, AUK, and all over asia than africa. Why go to Africa beyond JNB when the Germans and Belgians do it better???

SN-MD11 · Wed Dec 14, 2011 8:21 am

Actually YUL-BRU could easily sustain a second daily flight. O&D + Africa would warrant that, no doubts.

SN is targeting YUL for 2013, I wouldn't be astonished to see SN operating YUL-BRU with an A333, and AC switching to YYZ-BRU possibly with a 767.

AC's stance towards Africa, is comparable to their India strategy (on its own metal), yet many foreign airlines make the most of it...

Strange.

flyyul · Wed Dec 14, 2011 12:11 pm

Quoting Longhauler (Reply 16):
You're kidding right?

Right now, Air Canada's Flight Operations cost per seat mile is among the lowest in North America and Europe, including lower than Westjet and Southwest. And .. with the Third Quarter results, the average cost per equivalent full time employee, (including PENSIONS and benefits), is within CAD100 of Westjet!

If AC truly wants a LCC, then they are going to have to cut costs above the union employee level. For example the $39M in bonuses given to managers in the last 18 months, over and above wages!

Longhauler, i'm not derailing this thread with pilot costs arguments. I've invited you to headquarters to meet with senior management where the facts (vs. other OAL's) can be shown to you in a fair and transparent manner. The invitation is always open. Until then, please understand that AC has best-in class compensation and benefit package to its pilot group.

[Edited 2011-12-14 04:18:04]

flyyul · Wed Dec 14, 2011 12:18 pm

Quoting SN-MD11 (Reply 18):
SN is targeting YUL for 2013, I wouldn't be astonished to see SN operating YUL-BRU with an A333, and AC switching to YYZ-BRU possibly with a 767

Can you indicate your source re: SN to YUL? Thanks.

SN-MD11 · Wed Dec 14, 2011 12:56 pm

Quoting flyyul (Reply 20):
Can you indicate your source re: SN to YUL? Thanks.

Senior sources from SN.

They have set a plan for long-haul growth for 2012-13-14 and are currently reviewing new African destinations as well as North American ones (BOS, SFO, YUL,...).

yenne09 · Wed Dec 14, 2011 1:05 pm

It is simply a political issue.

pnd100 · Wed Dec 14, 2011 1:36 pm

Quoting md11dude (Reply 13):
Can't The 763 not fly YYZ or YUL to points in africa already? Or would that mean sarificing other routes? The 763 would work fine until the 788 arrives, so techniclly they could lease a few more in the mean time couln't they. Is the 763 still high in demand?

Personally I would have loved to see AC serve a greater network now. We deal with AC in business so I'm in touch with a wide range of staff from management to FAs to pilots. They all seem to have the same answer when I lament that AC has become a feeder airline for LH & UA - "Wait until the 787s arrive". From this I surmise that the company line at AC is that once the 787s arrive then AC will expand networks & become a more global carrier.

Forgive me, I am skeptical. I do not see AC expanding their network outside the nations they already serve with or without the 787s. They may expand destinations within those countries but new countries would be a surprise to me. They are an overcautious airline now & maybe that's the best way for them to do business

Alibo5NGN · Wed Dec 14, 2011 2:00 pm

Quoting blueflyer (Reply 2):
A single 767 between YUL and BRU to connect with SN's entire African network, or use the same aircraft on a thrice-weekly YUL-DKR and not have any connecting traffic in DKR to the rest of Africa?

On my regular visits to Nigeria, I meet a lot of Nigerian Canadian VFRs on BA, DL and Arik Air flights out of Lagos. Nigerians are the largest group of African migrants to Canada. The joke in Nigeria is that they are those who could not get into the US. I do not think that BRU is larger than London as a hub for AC traffic heading to Africa. The US now has several direct links to Lagos. Delta ATL, Arik Air JFK, United IAD, United Continental IAH and Delta JFK. Air Canada's absence makes no sense as Arik Air, Air Nigeria, Ethiopian, Kenya Airways, Rwanda Air, South African etc could act as feeder airlines connecting Air Canada passengers to other parts of Africa and projecting Canada in Africa. Canadian businesses have began a serious push to do business in Nigeria mostly in the power and hydro electric sectors..

longhauler · Wed Dec 14, 2011 3:02 pm

Quoting flyyul (Reply 19):
Until then, please understand that AC has best-in class compensation and benefit package to its pilot group.

Wow .. koolaid, huh?

One can twist numbers any way one wishes. I am just using numbers in the public domain. But the bottom line is that you can increase pilot salaries by about 50% and it would cost AC about a buck a seat on a Rapidair flight. And that would still pale in comparison to bonuses granted to managers in even the last 18 months.

[Edited 2011-12-14 07:09:12]

pnwtraveler · Wed Dec 14, 2011 6:02 pm

With Ethiopian joining Star Alliance and rumoured YYZ or YUL service, a good link onto the African continent would be obtained. There is also the issue of Egyptair and whether things will have to settle out in the country before any new services would be offered. time will tell if there are any legs to either.

TK is adding a 4th weekly flight to YYZ so there must be some very good connection traffic taking advantage of the flights. It would be interesting to know what and the connection traffic is to Lebanon and North Africa.

Thenoflyzone · Wed Dec 14, 2011 9:09 pm

Quoting flyyul (Reply 12):
I think the company had issues with the Rapidair, and since there's no A330 pilot base in Montreal, the slightest delay would have a impact on the operation. In June there were 3 operations that had to operate next day as day-trippers.

Quoting idjim319 (Reply 17):
AC is in risk management mode concerning the A330 and B763 fleet because of age and flexibility.

Speaking of flexibility and fleet issues, anyone know why AC has no pilot base in YYC. Is it lack of interest on behalf of the pilots, or are there simply not enough flights out of YYC (126 a day next summer i believe.Then again, YWG has a pilot base with even less flights ! ).

Thenoflyzone

[Edited 2011-12-14 13:11:58]

Viscount724 · Wed Dec 14, 2011 10:43 pm

Quoting SN-MD11 (Thread starter):
There is a growing african diaspora in Canada, many coming from the french speaking sub-saharian nations like Cameroon or Ivory Coast, and I don't understand why AC is ignoring Africa, it's a yield jackpot.

The problem is that Africa traffic is dispersed among a couple of dozen countries. Makes much more sense to serve markets like that using alliance partners via a hub where you can operate sufficient frequency. With nonstop service there wouldn't be enough traffic for any single destination more than once or twice a week. I doubt AC has any interest in returning to those types of operations which lost them a lot of money in years gone by.

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 27):
Speaking of flexibility and fleet issues, anyone know why AC has no pilot base in YYC. Is it lack of interest on behalf of the pilots, or are there simply not enough flights out of YYC (126 a day next summer i believe.

But what percentage of those 126 departures are Jazz (or whatever they're called now)? Must be by far the majority.

2travel2know2 · Thu Dec 15, 2011 1:24 am

YUL-CMN, YUL-DKR/ABJ, YYZ-ACC/LOS and YYZ-JNB may be the only African routes AC might make work.
Those YUL routes would be fine if AC had B757, a YUL-CMN non-stop w/A319, would be tough, tough to operate.
YYZ routes need at least B767 and it AC can't wait for B787, JNB must have stop enoute, be REC/FOR, SID, FNA/BJL, ACC...

Thenoflyzone · Thu Dec 15, 2011 3:11 am

Quoting 2travel2know2 (Reply 29):
YUL-CMN, YUL-DKR/ABJ, YYZ-ACC/LOS and YYZ-JNB may be the only African routes AC might make work.
Those YUL routes would be fine if AC had B757, a YUL-CMN non-stop w/A319, would be tough, tough to operate.
YYZ routes need at least B767 and it AC can't wait for B787, JNB must have stop enoute, be REC/FOR, SID, FNA/BJL, ACC...

If AT operates daily (sometimes 8-9 weekly) flights during the summer on YUL-CMN, then AC can surely dedicate at least a 763 on the route.

As for JNB, no stop required......YYZ-JNB is well within the capability of the B77L or B787. ATL-JNB is 135 miles longer, and Delta flies it non-stop.

Thenoflyzone

Viscount724 · Thu Dec 15, 2011 3:38 am

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 30):
If AT operates daily (sometimes 8-9 weekly) flights during the summer on YUL-CMN, then AC can surely dedicate at least a 763 on the route.

AT doesn't have to worry about profitability. They're 96% government-owned. They can also feed their network to many points in Africa and the Middle East beyond CMN. Almost all their Canada traffic is to/from the YUL region. For AC, it would be solely an O&D route and with virtually no high yield traffic. They're smart to leave that market to AT.

flyyul · Thu Dec 15, 2011 4:06 am

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 31):

AT doesn't have to worry about profitability. They're 96% government-owned. They can also feed their network to many points in Africa and the Middle East beyond CMN. Almost all their Canada traffic is to/from the YUL region. For AC, it would be solely an O&D route and with virtually no high yield traffic. They're smart to leave that market to AT.

The advantage, assuming there is a business case, is to position Montreal as a "francophonie" gateway. Unfortunately yields to North Africa are weak, and a high density operation is best suited for success.

flyyul · Thu Dec 15, 2011 4:11 am

Quoting Longhauler (Reply 25):
Wow .. koolaid, huh?

One can twist numbers any way one wishes. I am just using numbers in the public domain. But the bottom line is that you can increase pilot salaries by about 50% and it would cost AC about a buck a seat on a Rapidair flight. And that would still pale in comparison to bonuses granted to managers in even the last 18 months.

If you think i'm drinking koolaid, then come to HQ and see the facts as they stand. Unless you want to continue living in denial. I urge you to take me up on the offer.

blueflyer · Thu Dec 15, 2011 6:27 am

Quoting pnwtraveler (Reply 26):
With Ethiopian joining Star Alliance and rumoured YUL service, a good link onto the African continent would be obtained.

No, it would not. Ethiopian is a fine airline, but Addis Ababa is too far East to be used as a connecting point for anything other than Eastern and South Africa or the Middle East.

Connecting through Europe to reach some of the airports mentioned above (ABJ, ACC, CKY, DKR, etc...) is over 3,000 miles shorter than via ADD.

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 30):
If AT operates daily (sometimes 8-9 weekly) flights during the summer on YUL-CMN, then AC can surely dedicate at least a 763 on the route.

AT fills its planes with VFR and TO business. The former sticks to AT because it is the "hometown" airline and the latter goes where it's cheapest. Over the summer, AT operates flights to Europe with fully-loaded 747s while the European competition continues to fly 737s and A302s on the same routes.

[Edited 2011-12-14 22:41:01]

yenne09 · Thu Dec 15, 2011 12:52 pm

Royal Air Maroc has been able to create a hub between Montreal and many African countries. Don't forget that Africa is a continent is real expansion. Bombardier is investing in Morocco for a new plant. About a dozen countries will have a an expansion rate of more than 6% According to the World Bank Africa is about to expand like China 30 years ago.

There are a huge investments in so many economic perspectives: agriculture, commerce, manufacturing plants, mines, petroleum, roads, airports, ports and so on. For example Morocco will have a high speed train. It's a changing continent. But in Canada it's seem that the vision of this continent has not change. While Air Canada is not serving the continent it is very surprising to see all the people going there from Europe, Asia. Middle-East.

Also more and more Canadians are going there for work so it's a gold mine for European or African carriers and even for Delta Airlines. Too bad for the government of Canada and Air Canada.

Viscount724 · Thu Dec 15, 2011 11:07 pm

Quoting yenne09 (Reply 35):
Also more and more Canadians are going there for work so it's a gold mine for European or African carriers and even for Delta Airlines. Too bad for the government of Canada and Air Canada.

I expect a significant percentage of Canadians are flying AC via one of their many European gateways. Most Canadian business travellers are loyal to AC's FFP and aren't going to fly carriers like AT and lose their benefits.

JAGflyer · Thu Dec 15, 2011 11:42 pm

Price is also a big concern. The expat communities from Ivory Coast, Cameroon, and the sub-saharan are mainly working class, low-income families. If AC started a YUL-DKR they'd have to charge bottom rate fares which may be harder to do. AC is not in a position to target VFR markets where cost is everything. A $1400 non-stop means nothing compared to a $900 flight with 8 hour layover in FRA or BRU.

[Edited 2011-12-15 15:48:49]

744 · Fri Dec 16, 2011 3:47 am

Does anyone know when AC will start their operations to India? Would it be non-stop or 1stop through Europe or Asia? Are they planning to fly to Delhi and Mumbai or both?

threepoint · Fri Dec 16, 2011 3:53 am

Quoting 744 (Reply 38):
Does anyone know when AC will start their operations to India? Would it be non-stop or 1stop through Europe or Asia? Are they planning to fly to Delhi and Mumbai or both?

Their previous service via ARN didn't work so well for them, but that was a case of inadequate aircraft (343) performance on a reliable basis added to the traditionally low yields to the subcontinent as previously mentioned. I have no idea what the route planners are scheming, but I suspect that in the middle of this decade, we'll see one or two YYZ-India nonstops and perhaps one from YVR as well.
I wonder how or if the arrival of the 787s will affect existing partnerships with (for example) LH who currently carry a great deal of India-Canada (and I suspect Africa-Canada) passengers on all or half of the journey.

pnwtraveler · Fri Dec 16, 2011 4:48 pm

I also think the Africa and AC question will be in part need be dependant on how the AC/UA cross US border tie in fares with the competition complaint initiated by WestJet and others. Hypothetically if the mini merger goes ahead, the airlines might have gotten together and decided they could make a IAH to Africa flight work with enough feeder traffic from AC and the appropriate connections and do a profit share arrangement.

MSN007 · Sat Dec 17, 2011 4:24 am

Quoting blueflyer (Reply 34):
No, it would not. Ethiopian is a fine airline, but Addis Ababa is too far East to be used as a connecting point for anything other than Eastern and South Africa or the Middle East.

Connecting through Europe to reach some of the airports mentioned above (ABJ, ACC, CKY, DKR, etc...) is over 3,000 miles shorter than via ADD.

ET is following the EK business model and built ADD as a hub connecting to Africa and the middle east. If TK can add a fourth daily and with large Ethiopian community in YYZ, this is going to work for them. In-fact they should have started the route long ago with leased Air India 777 instead of waiting for the late forever 787.

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