747-8i Orders

planetime · Mon Jan 02, 2012 3:17 am

Is there any new or potential orders in the pipeline for the 747-8i? EK/SQ/QF seem to take the 380 or 77W route, they seemed like natural fit.

2175301 · Mon Jan 02, 2012 3:55 am

Other new orders are not likely until some actual performance numbers are in. I doubt that the 748i will sell a lot more planes - but I would not be surprised by another 30-50. The 748F will sell for many years.

Have a great day,

redrooster3 · Mon Jan 02, 2012 4:03 am

Very slim chance.

Quoting planetime (Thread starter):
EK

They want A389's now.

Quoting planetime (Thread starter):
SQ

They've stated on numerous occasions their VLA future lies with the A380.

Quoting planetime (Thread starter):
QF

It serves no purpose in their fleet

Quoting planetime (Thread starter):
potential orders

I always thought 12 A380's and and 24 787's on order wont replace 61 744's. BA will have to order 748's at least.

Other possible carriers: TK, CX, KLM, DL

Paul787 · Mon Jan 02, 2012 8:13 am

DL is a true potential candidate for the 748i. Their current fleet of 747s is getting old and they really need a 'Jumbo' for some of their routes. For now it looks like they want to focus on narrow body fleet renewal.

Same thing goes with KL.

[Edited 2012-01-02 00:14:39]

ba319-131 · Mon Jan 02, 2012 11:15 am

Quoting redrooster3 (Reply 2):
BA will have to order 748's at least.

- BA have stated the 748I has no place in their future fleet plans, it's not going to happen folks.

flyingcello · Mon Jan 02, 2012 12:17 pm

Quoting ba319-131 (Reply 4):

- BA have stated the 748I has no place in their future fleet plans, it's not going to happen folks.

BA did say this a few years back, but things change...

If Lufthansa and Korean prove that there is a place for the 748 beside the A380 (and the 77W / A346) then there may well be a similar place at BA. Also, Iberian could use the 748 for south Atlantic routes, and if the aircraft is in the group, then BA may want to benefit. Remember too that the 748 won the competition within BA for their new VLA, only for Airbus to offer the A380 at a knockdown price, and take the day. So BA like the 748 idea. Finally, in a world where oil prices are only going up, having the ability to match airframe to route precisely will bring economic benefits.

I'm not saying BA are a certainty for the 748, but don't rule it out.

kc135topboom · Mon Jan 02, 2012 12:24 pm

Quoting ba319-131 (Reply 4):
BA have stated the 748I has no place in their future fleet plans, it's not going to happen folks.

Quoting FlyingCello (Reply 5):
BA did say this a few years back, but things change...

Didn't they also say at one time they didn't need the B-77W?

jfk777 · Mon Jan 02, 2012 12:43 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 6):
Didn't they also say at one time they didn't need the B-77W?

With a growing 77W fleet its doubtful BA will order 748 too.

STT757 · Mon Jan 02, 2012 1:03 pm

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 1):
Other new orders are not likely until some actual performance numbers are in.

I agree with this, some solid performance numbers coupled with aggressive pricing/financing from Boeing are what's needed to stimulate additional orders. In terms of potential new carriers, UA might be a possibility at somepoint especially in light of this latest news about EWR:

Quote:
NEW YORK – The biggest airliner Boeing has ever built could soon be coming to Newark Liberty International Airport.

http://travel.usatoday.com/flights/s...ings-biggest-ever-plane/51956258/1

This waiver is most likely to facilitate future LH 747-8I to EWR, as well as cargo carriers. However it helps Boeing make the sales pitch to UA, EWR would definitely at the top of UA's concerns with regards to any potential VLA orders.

BlueSky1976 · Mon Jan 02, 2012 1:10 pm

Quoting redrooster3 (Reply 2):
I always thought 12 A380's and and 24 787's on order wont replace 61 744's. BA will have to order 748's at least.

I strongly believe that the majority of BA's 747s will be replaced by the 777-300ER, or the "777-9X". An order for A350-1000 also cannot be ruled out.

Quoting Paul787 (Reply 3):
DL is a true potential candidate for the 748i. Their current fleet of 747s is getting old and they really need a 'Jumbo' for some of their routes.

Nope. If anything, Delta will get 777-300ERs/ "-9X" to replace their 747s. This way, they will keep fleet commonality with their existing 777-200LRs.

scbriml · Mon Jan 02, 2012 1:14 pm

Quoting redrooster3 (Reply 2):
BA will have to order 748's at least.

IMHO, they are FAR more likely to order additional A380s.

ebj1248650 · Mon Jan 02, 2012 1:30 pm

What an airline says today may not match its requirements in the future. For the 748i, I'd suggest just watch to see what happens. I wouldn't be too quick to count it out. True, the airlines aren't stampeding to Boeing's door to order them, but as has been mentioned before, the airplane isn't in airline service and the performance numbers aren't in. Airline plans change and equipment requirements change as well. The future for the 748i may be brighter than some on this web site believe.

RubberJungle · Mon Jan 02, 2012 2:46 pm

Quoting FlyingCello (Reply 5):
If Lufthansa and Korean prove that there is a place for the 748 beside the A380

Did they prove there was a place for the 747-8, or were they simply given an offer they couldn't refuse?

767nutter · Mon Jan 02, 2012 4:03 pm

Quoting RubberJungle (Reply 12):

Did they prove there was a place for the 747-8, or were they simply given an offer they couldn't refuse?

i doubt i would find it among my stacks of magazines to give a more detailed reply but put simply in a article in a Airliner World issue Lufthansa were saying it fits perfectly between the A380 and A340 fleet on certain routes and to be able to offer passengers cheaper/better flying. sorry for not being more detailed but that was the basis of it

Stitch · Mon Jan 02, 2012 5:01 pm

Quoting RubberJungle (Reply 12):
Did they prove there was a place for the 747-8, or were they simply given an offer they couldn't refuse?

LH has always wanted a larger 747 to slot between the 747-400 and A380-800.

And Boeing have publicly stated they could have sold more 747-8s, but refused RFPs from airlines because the price offered was too low.

Ire2008 · Mon Jan 02, 2012 5:10 pm

Why did LH not go for the 777W?

Kevin

VC10er · Mon Jan 02, 2012 5:11 pm

I am old enough to remember watching the Sonny & Cher show. At the time, while popular, Cher was always ridiculed as not being particularly talented as an actress or singer. Years later she won an Acadamy Award for best actress. Fred Astair's first screen test said "can't sing, can't dance". In business the same rules apply.never can feel very certain, but really, only god knows. Today the 748-8i "seems" like a loved airplane that doesn't fit into anyone's plans, but, we could find that by 2018 the order books are packed. We can only hope that other posters are right: that once Lufthansa and Korean report, and the reports on performance are better than expected, others will line up with their orders.

Boeing didn't create the 747-8i on a whim to keep it's signature airplane flying - they did it because they had enough research that indicated it was worth the investment. And even if it becomes just the doll of cargo, I assume they will see a sizable ROI, or they will have a lot of punishing share holders to answer to.

But it ain't over until the fat lady sings. And fingers crossed that LH and the passengers create big demand!

Frankly, I will get tired of only spotting 2 holers!

Stitch · Mon Jan 02, 2012 5:12 pm

Quoting Ire2008 (Reply 15):
Why did LH not go for the 777W?

Because they operate the A340-600.

UAL747 · Mon Jan 02, 2012 5:46 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 17):

Because they operate the A340-600.

Yup, Lufthansa made their bed with the A340-600. While it isn't as economically viable as the 77W, the A340-600 fills the exact same niche as the 77W.

As far as the 748, I believe United will be the first US customer for this aircraft. The A380 is too large, and they need a more match to match replacement for the 744's. As much as people like to dog the 744, it has a VERY huge roll in United's fleet planning. While United will say they want to reduce capacity, I just don't see it happening, especially on the Asian routes. Delta would be the next airline I would see buying it.

The 748 is not digging sales right now, but I think if we wait, it will be a big seller, because there is nothing in between an A340-600/77W and the A380 anymore, and that in itself, is a large market.

UAL

EPA001 · Mon Jan 02, 2012 5:49 pm

Quoting RubberJungle (Reply 12):
Quoting FlyingCello (Reply 5):
If Lufthansa and Korean prove that there is a place for the 748 beside the A380

Did they prove there was a place for the 747-8, or were they simply given an offer they couldn't refuse?

Probably a bit of both. LH is getting the biggest launch customer discount of course. And given the fact that the freighter capabilities of the B748i are very good, and given the fact that LH and KE are among the worldwide top 3 combined passenger & cargo airlines, their selection makes perfect sense.

I am not so sure if that would also be the case when we are talking about BA, which to me is a predominantly passenger airline.

EPA001 · Mon Jan 02, 2012 5:53 pm

Quoting UAL747 (Reply 18):
The 748 is not digging sales right now, but I think if we wait, it will be a big seller, because there is nothing in between an A340-600/77W and the A380 anymore, and that in itself, is a large market.

But to be fair there is not that much room in the market imho to fill that gap. And what if the heavily speculated B777-NG arrives? Or a possible A350-1100? That will surely be the end of the B748, as the B77W almost already has done by itself (and helped a little bit by the A380 which took away "the top" of the possible demand).

Ire2008 · Mon Jan 02, 2012 5:54 pm

What i kind of meant was why LH went for the 748 over the 777W? Jus because so many other airlines went 777W and not 748? Im sure discounted proces helped but can't be the only reason? Also when do LH plan to phase out the A346? Also thus a bit off topic, but why would say VS go for the A346 over the 777?

Kevin

UAL747 · Mon Jan 02, 2012 5:59 pm

Quoting Ire2008 (Reply 21):
What i kind of meant was why LH went for the 748 over the 777W? Jus because so many other airlines went 777W and not 748? Im sure discounted proces helped but can't be the only reason? Also when do LH plan to phase out the A346?

Because in numbers, the A346 can carry as much as a 77W (sort of), but not as economically. LH is a HUGE Airbus customer and I'm sure that also had something to do with it. I have a feeling though, they will be the last airline flying the big A346, while the rest of the world's fleets are retired. So that said, A346 fills the 77W gap, and the 748 definitely carries more than the 77W, but not as much as the A380. So they really only have a SLIGHT increase in capacity, whereas the 77W would compete directly with their already large fleet of A346's.

UAL

NWAROOSTER · Mon Jan 02, 2012 6:04 pm

Quoting VC10er (Reply 16):
I am old enough to remember watching the Sonny & Cher show. At the time, while popular, Cher was always ridiculed as not being particularly talented as an actress or singer. Years later she won an Acadamy Award for best actress. Fred Astair's first screen test said "can't sing, can't dance". In business the same rules apply.never can feel very certain, but really, only god knows. Today the 748-8i "seems" like a loved airplane that doesn't fit into anyone's plans, but, we could find that by 2018 the order books are packed. We can only hope that other posters are right: that once Lufthansa and Korean report, and the reports on performance are better than expected, others will line up with their orders.

Boeing didn't create the 747-8i on a whim to keep it's signature airplane flying - they did it because they had enough research that indicated it was worth the investment. And even if it becomes just the doll of cargo, I assume they will see a sizable ROI, or they will have a lot of punishing share holders to answer to.

But it ain't over until the fat lady sings. And fingers crossed that LH and the passengers create big demand!

Frankly, I will get tired of only spotting 2 holers!

I got you beat. I can remember watching Howdy Doody, Hopalong Cassidy, Maverick, Dragnet, Roy Rogers and Gene Autry.
Delta will fly their 747-400s into oblivion, just like Northwest did with the DC-9-30s. Delta will wait for Boeing to build a better version of the 777 or some other large twin to replace the 747-400. If not ,Delta may acquire some late build 747-400s to replace their older 747-400s. Delta may consider the 747-8i only if the price is right and they really have a need for it.. Aircraft today are very expensive and have to show the operator a profit. A 747 can't be bought for 21 Million Dollars each, like Northwest paid for their first 10 747-100s in 1970. old

[Edited 2012-01-02 10:10:47]

EPA001 · Mon Jan 02, 2012 6:05 pm

Quoting Ire2008 (Reply 21):
What i kind of meant was why LH went for the 748 over the 777W?

Like I already indicated I guess for both LH and KE the cargo capability on top of the a bit higher passenger capacity (compared to the A346 and B77W) will most likely have been the decisive factor. Added to the launch customer bonus of course. I doubt LH and KE have paid more for these B748I's then what a normal B77W would cost them. But that is a statement I can not back-up with any numbers, it is just a thought that I have.

GBLKD · Mon Jan 02, 2012 6:14 pm

Quoting FlyingCello (Reply 5):
Also, Iberia could use the 748 for south Atlantic routes

I doubt that considering that mainline IB is an all airbus fleet and in theory all pilots can currently be trained to operate everything in the current fleet A319 to A343. 748i would be an odd type requiring a seperate pilot pool which would cost a lot of money to train and maintain.

I'd like to see the 748i do well but to be honest the 77W has got it's market already. I see a lot of airlines going the way of Emirates and Singapore for their long haul fleet in the future, a mix of A388s and 77Ws

flyingcello · Mon Jan 02, 2012 7:32 pm

Quoting GBLKD (Reply 25):
748i would be an odd type requiring a seperate pilot pool which would cost a lot of money to train and maintain.

But it wasn't so long ago that the 744 was in the Iberia fleet...so some of that pilot / engineer pool will still be available, and can be revalidated quickly. Iberia have operated 747-100, -200 and -300 as well, so they can utilise that size of aircraft. The A346 may have picked up most of that burden, but there will be opportunities where an A346 is too little and an A380 too much.

dkdaviator · Mon Jan 02, 2012 8:16 pm

Quoting planetime (Thread starter):
i doubt i would find it among my stacks of magazines to give a more detailed reply but put simply in a article in a Airliner World issue Lufthansa were saying it fits perfectly between the A380 and A340 fleet on certain routes and to be able to offer passengers cheaper/better flying. sorry for not being more detailed but that was the basis of it

Yes, I think this is right. At least one place where you can read more about this is in one of the 2011 Lufthansa onboard "Magazin" editions. I think it was the CEO who was interviewed in the article who was making the case about how the aircraft fits perfectly into their fleet plans. It is described in a little more detail in the following trip report:

Taking The "scenic Route" To Amsterdam! BLL To AMS (by dkdaviator Aug 26 2011 in Trip Reports)

dkdaviator

aircanada014 · Mon Jan 02, 2012 8:32 pm

Quoting Paul787 (Reply 3):
DL is a true potential candidate for the 748i. Their current fleet of 747s is getting old and they really need a 'Jumbo' for some of their routes. For now it looks like they want to focus on narrow body fleet renewal.

I disagree DL being a true canidate for B747s because they haven't flown the plane for a long time, they inherit the plane through mergering with NW..so I doubt we'll see them ordering 747-8i. I can see UA since they are a true canidate however they are going for twin engines 787s and 358/9s..

lightsaber · Mon Jan 02, 2012 8:51 pm

I hear rumors and I haven't seen a finalization of the Hong Kong airlines order. I would also be very surprised if KE doesn't order more. Besides India, where the bilaterals limit KE to a '747 sized aircraft of smaller' and 400 seats (or less), I could see KE flying the 748 to quite a few destinations. I expect them to bid off Airbus versus Boeing where Boeing will have an advantage in delivery time. Note: I suspect KE will 'benchmark' both types against each other in service.

Quoting redrooster3 (Reply 2):
I always thought 12 A380's and and 24 787's on order wont replace 61 744's. BA will have to order 748's at least.

Other possible carriers: TK, CX, KLM, DL

If BA includes IB, I would agree they are very likely to order the 748I. From what I see, the A380 bests the A380 (and 77W) in cost to carry a premium seat (J or F) due to its lower cost per floor area. The 748I will do best in high Y configurations such as BA out of LGW.

I wonder on CX. Due to their cargo tendancies, the 77W works well for them. The 748I could have a niche (better cargo than the A388). However, I would be shocked if they didn't push Airbus for an A389.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 8):
This waiver is most likely to facilitate future LH 747-8I to EWR, as well as cargo carriers. However it helps Boeing make the sales pitch to UA, EWR would definitely at the top of UA's concerns with regards to any potential VLA orders.

I'm curious as to UA's future fleet orders. I see enough routes that support more than the A359 to believe that will be their largest going forward airframe. But it will depend on the 748I's in service performance as many of those routes border on ULH.

Lightsaber

JayinKitsap · Mon Jan 02, 2012 8:55 pm

The VLA market for the last 30 years has been in the 25 to 40 per year. In that a) worldwide widebody demand is up and b) the 77W slots in well for the long haul reason (vs capacity) that the VLA market will remain about 30 to 45 per year. That would be between 25 and 30 380's and around 15 748I's a year.

That is like 2 orders per year for the 380 and 1 or 2 small orders per year for the 748I.

Yes, I think that UA will eventually make an 748 order for about 10, to cover routes where it is the right fit. I think DL will pass. I believe that BA will in about 5 years do an order for 10, and LH as well as KE will both top off their orders. Air China and some of the other Asian lines will also order.

Both the 748 and 380 will have slow orders, just enough to keep their lines open.

dave2 · Mon Jan 02, 2012 9:07 pm

Since most of this is comments one various opinions. So here is my 2 cents on the subject.

Likely candidates for B747-8i are users of large fleets of B747s. Second would be carriers not using either A380 or B744 currently but have large network ideal for B747-8i. I would look at Iberia and South African to replace the A340-600s (and smaller A340-300s). Saudi Arabia could also buy the -8i.

The argument of economics of twins versus four engines will rage on.

There could be customers out there we are not thinking about at all.

astuteman · Mon Jan 02, 2012 9:35 pm

Quoting ebj1248650 (Reply 11):
The future for the 748i may be brighter than some on this web site believe.

I have to agree with that.
Especially as the same is almost certainly true for the A380, too

Quoting dave2 (Reply 31):
There could be customers out there we are not thinking about at all.

Again, I think the A380 shows that this is indeed possible.
Not all of its current customers figured in the early "only 744 operators will order" thinking...

Rgds

B777LRF · Mon Jan 02, 2012 10:06 pm

LH got the A346 partly because they were, and still remain, a very large A340 Classic operator and a very, very large Airbus operator. The other reason was availability, the A346 came to market a couple of years before the 77W. Last but not least, Flight Operations at LH was not comfortable crossing oceans on 2 engines. They came around, eventually, but the A346 was probably an easier sell to the pilots than a 77W.

The main reason for getting either an A346 or 77W is, put simply, that both offers almost the capacity of a 747 but at much less cost. Let's not forget that quite a few airlines bought 744s for range more than capacity, meaning that in very many cases an A346 or 77W will match demand better than a 744 or, indeed, a 748i.

kc135topboom · Mon Jan 02, 2012 10:42 pm

Quoting RubberJungle (Reply 12):
Did they prove there was a place for the 747-8, or were they simply given an offer they couldn't refuse?

Launch customers always get heavy discount pricing, just like CX did for launching the WhaleJet.

Quoting 767nutter (Reply 13):
Lufthansa were saying it fits perfectly between the A380 and A340 fleet on certain routes and to be able to offer passengers cheaper/better flying.

Correct, and when it comes time to begin replacing the A-343/6, they (LH) will have the B-748. This why I think LH will exercise its 20 options for the B-748.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 20):
Quoting UAL747 (Reply 18):
The 748 is not digging sales right now, but I think if we wait, it will be a big seller, because there is nothing in between an A340-600/77W and the A380 anymore, and that in itself, is a large market.

But to be fair there is not that much room in the market imho to fill that gap. And what if the heavily speculated B777-NG arrives? Or a possible A350-1100? That will surely be the end of the B748, as the B77W almost already has done by itself (and helped a little bit by the A380 which took away "the top" of the possible demand).

I think you got that a little confused. The B-77W is not a suitable substitute for the B-748. It is for the B-744. There is a 120 seat difference between the B-748 and the B-77W. The B-77W carries 350 pax (3 class), the A-346 carries 405 (2 class, 390 3 class), the B-744 carries 415 (3 class), and the B-748 carries 470 (3 class). That makes the B-77W a good A-346 and B-744 replacement, but not a substitute for the B-748. There will be no A-3511 and if there were, it would carry between 340-400 pax, 3 class. I'm not even sure the A-3510 will get built, Airbus has taken all the engineers off the A-358/10 so they could work on the A-359. So it (A-3510/11, B-77W) still wouldn't make a B-748 substitute, just as it would not be a substitute for the A-388.

scbriml · Mon Jan 02, 2012 10:54 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 34):
CX did for launching the WhaleJet.

Do you mean A380? I can assure you that CX didn't get any discount for their A380s.

PlymSpotter · Mon Jan 02, 2012 11:02 pm

Quoting UAL747 (Reply 22):
I have a feeling though, they will be the last airline flying the big A346, while the rest of the world's fleets are retired.

My feeling is that either SA or IB will take the honor of last major flag carrier flying the type, but even then A346s won't disappear, they'll just cascade down to other smaller airlines. Contrary to popular belief there are certain missions for which the A346 offers superior performance to the 77W, including SA's JNB base and many of IB's South American destinations. Plus SA don't need ETOPS for the A346 which is another good reason to keep them around until they have to part... or can use an A380/748 instead.

Quoting FlyingCello (Reply 26):
But it wasn't so long ago that the 744 was in the Iberia fleet...so some of that pilot / engineer pool will still be available, and can be revalidated quickly. Iberia have operated 747-100, -200 and -300 as well, so they can utilise that size of aircraft.

The B747-300/400 have never been part of Iberia's own fleet, they were wet/damp leased which is a key difference. The two B747-400 aircraft were ex Singapore Airlines aircraft damp leased via Air Atlanta Icelandic, the same source for the -300s. The only thing Iberia had to take care of was providing flight attendants - all cockpit crew, insurance and maintenance was provided by the lessor, so Iberia themselves have no hands on experience of the type beyond the 747-200.

I agree that some IB routes could already fill a VLA, but I would expect them to chose the A380 over the 748 as it has been mentioned that all IB/BA orders will now be placed jointly by IAG. Reasonably soon I can see a 10-20 frame order for A380s and 50ish frame order for A350s to be split between the two airlines, I just can't see BA wanting the 748 now that Heathrow has no chance of an extra runway.

Dan

flyingcello · Mon Jan 02, 2012 11:13 pm

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 36):
The B747-300/400 have never been part of Iberia's own fleet, they were wet/damp leased which is a key difference. The two B747-400 aircraft were ex Singapore Airlines aircraft damp leased via Air Atlanta Icelandic, the same source for the -300s. The only thing Iberia had to take care of was providing flight attendants - all cockpit crew, insurance and maintenance was provided by the lessor, so Iberia themselves have no hands on experience of the type beyond the 747-200.

Thanks for that...didn't realise they were hired in...

Rara · Tue Jan 03, 2012 12:10 am

Quoting UAL747 (Reply 18):

The 748 is not digging sales right now, but I think if we wait, it will be a big seller, because there is nothing in between an A340-600/77W and the A380 anymore, and that in itself, is a large market.

But if there were to be a market, wouldn't Airbus react by offering a A387 to further eat into the 748's niche?

Quoting B777LRF (Reply 33):
Last but not least, Flight Operations at LH was not comfortable crossing oceans on 2 engines. They came around, eventually, but the A346 was probably an easier sell to the pilots than a 77W.

That's true! Remember how hesitantly they got into the twin game with the A330. I remember LH pilots back then telling me how this plane will only be for medium-haul destinations like Cairo or Astana. They saw it as some sort of A306 replacement back then.

lightsaber · Tue Jan 03, 2012 12:14 am

Quoting B777LRF (Reply 33):
Let's not forget that quite a few airlines bought 744s for range more than capacity, meaning that in very many cases an A346 or 77W will match demand better than a 744 or, indeed, a 748i.

I agree that many of the 744s were bought for range and 'abused' on capacity. However, today we now have the major airline alliances and other airlines that operate significant 'trunk routes' that will fill quite a few VLAs as Asia continues to grow its middle-class.

I see more of a VLA market here than many others. Partially as certain long haul is really only done at the 'preferred time" due to curfews and sleep time in flight.

Lightsaber

nycdave · Tue Jan 03, 2012 12:27 am

Quoting STT757 (Reply 8):
EWR would definitely at the top of UA's concerns with regards to any potential VLA orders.

My thoughts exactly. Most of UA's hubs have abundant room to increase frequency, but EWR is full up and only really leaves them with the option of increasing capacity when they want to upsize routes... but EWR isn't going to be in any state to accept the A380 for the forseeable future.

B777LRF · Tue Jan 03, 2012 12:36 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 39):
I see more of a VLA market here than many others. Partially as certain long haul is really only done at the 'preferred time" due to curfews and sleep time in flight.

You and i see the same pattern, and my money is on the A380 (in all its present and future variations) doing the stitching rather than the 748i.

PlanesNTrains · Tue Jan 03, 2012 2:17 am

I don't know what will come of the 748i, but every day that passes puts the market one step closer to a more capable A388, an A389, and the proposed 777X. If the 748i is gonna sell, it needs to start selling right now or I don't see it having a future in any sizable numbers at all.

-Dave

Viscount724 · Tue Jan 03, 2012 2:37 am

When the 747-8 was launched in 2005 the world oil price was around $40 to $50 a barrel, not $100 like today. That's a big factor. No airline is going to order 4-engine aircraft if they don't have a very good reason.

cosmofly · Tue Jan 03, 2012 2:45 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 42):
I don't know what will come of the 748i, but every day that passes puts the market one step closer to a more capable A388, an A389, and the proposed 777X. If the 748i is gonna sell, it needs to start selling right now or I don't see it having a future in any sizable numbers at all.

The only game left that I can see for the 748i is a clever use of the OSU space to add more seats. Boeing has been advertising that the OSU has the space of a 737 and VIP 748i is already making use of the space. If Boeing can add another 50 seat count to the 748i brochure, it can work very well in between the 777X and A389.

ER757 · Tue Jan 03, 2012 3:01 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 29):
I hear rumors and I haven't seen a finalization of the Hong Kong airlines order.

Or the five for Air China - the finalization of both of those could come at the same time if the Chinese gov't decides to let them go through. There are some trade wars between the US and China right now and that could scuttle both orders.
We also have small orders for Transaero and Arik Air.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 32):
Again, I think the A380 shows that this is indeed possible.
Not all of its current customers figured in the early "only 744 operators will order" thinking...

I think some 747-8 orders could fit this category - airlines looking to grow. If TK ever pulls the trigger on their long rumoured VLA choice, I have a gut feeling it will be the 748.

ssteve · Tue Jan 03, 2012 3:17 am

Quoting cosmofly (Reply 44):
The only game left that I can see for the 748i is a clever use of the OSU space to add more seats.

They would have to figure out how to add lavs and galleys up there. Pretty much a non-starter for seats.

Stitch · Tue Jan 03, 2012 3:21 am

Quoting Rara (Reply 38):
But if there were to be a market, wouldn't Airbus react by offering a A387 to further eat into the 748's niche?

Such a plane would probably have unfavorable economics due to weight to size.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 43):
When the 747-8 was launched in 2005 the world oil price was around $40 to $50 a barrel, not $100 like today. That's a big factor. No airline is going to order 4-engine aircraft if they don't have a very good reason.

I recall Boeing muttering that the 747-8 would have fuel burn close to the 777-300ER / A340-600 (roughly 20% better than the 747-400). With the shortfall in the GEnx2B-67, I'm not sure how close they are to that target, but every bit does help.

Cerecl · Tue Jan 03, 2012 3:45 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 47):

I may be totally wrong, but I think the 20% fuel burn advantage 77W has over 744 refers to total trip. 747-8i on the other hand should have roughly equivalent total fuelburn and 13% less seat-mile cost compared to 744 according to Boeing.

CFBFrame · Tue Jan 03, 2012 4:34 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 32):
Again, I think the A380 shows that this is indeed possible

Why do you do that?

The 747-8 will sell just like the 77W did. People said the A340-600 would own the segment only to be left at the gate while the 77W has owned the segment. As with other programs it is assumed that because the A380 has made a track or two the world will be filled with only A380s. Not true. KL will want some sort of combi that only a -8 can provide. AF will want to kick sand in Airbus face for some reason ad order a few. DL will buy as well as UA, NH, and JL. Oh and all the royal families in need of a real show piece. Should be fun times,

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