Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 49): Yes and no. DCA is a lot of business traffic. To appeal to business travelers, you need frequency to any major market. With only 17 flights, they can't offer frequency to that many markets.

True, but US has to match B6 pricing. Everywhere they infect with low pricing and non-stop service will cost US money. They can't simply continue charging $700RT when B6 is $350.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 49): Other than BOS, JFK, FLL and MCO, I can't really figure what they are going to do with their limited portfolio.

I doubt it is mathematically possible for DCA-JFK to make a profit.   There is almost no local market (and what there appears to be really is double ticketed int'l passengers) and the prorate on connects is probably $65. Ick

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 49): They will. But as I said, US really only needs about 30-40% of the market to make VPS-DCA work. DL will still probably capture 50%. Those carriers are really the only players in that market.

Agreed on DL. I'm just saying they aren't going get big fares from the gov't people because of the contracted fares so while it may be full they can't make a profit on the high CASM of that CRJ. For that matter, I bet there are no more than 20 or 30 profitable 50 seater markets in the whole USA if you don't give the credit for the beyond revenue which really should be prorated to the second leg.

Quoting enilria (Reply 48): If poor AirTran still existed they could have done a lot more with those slots that would have hurt US much more.

You're assuming that...

1. Air Tran would have bid
2. Air Tran would have won.

Everyone, you and me included, were shocked WN didn't bid higher for the slots at DCA. If WN who has 6 times the cash (a wild guesstimate don't quote me) then Air Tran, didn't bid high enough for it, I doubt FL would have been able to win or even attempted to bid.

I agree IF FL had bid and won too, FL could do some damage as well, but even one of the slots is AIR21, which is being used DCA-RSW, a route US Airways also flies.

Alex

I see that DL is now using the A319 ATL-ROC. I have never seen a DL Airbus here in ROC.Hoping the weather improves so I can get a picture of it.

Quoting apodino (Reply 52): Logic would say CLT, because PHL is maxed out at peak times and US would only hurt their operation by adding more flights there unless its at off peak.

This update shows PHL receiving 8 more flts a day (excluding SLC). And with the exception of CLT they all look to be CRJ/170/175/190 candidates. I am not sure if these are just seasonal increases.

Quoting enilria (Reply 50): True, but US has to match B6 pricing. Everywhere they infect with low pricing and non-stop service will cost US money. They can't simply continue charging $700RT when B6 is $350.

Only if B6 can offer enough frequency to be competitive. If B6 were to launch DCA-RDU 1x daily, US wouldn't have to match as B6's one flight couldn't possibly soak up all the traffic on this route. US also has a lot of FF's would would pay higher fares for the FF miles and upgrades to first. Even today, US gets a premium over B6 on the DCA-BOS route despite B6 having decent frequency.

Quoting enilria (Reply 50): I doubt it is mathematically possible for DCA-JFK to make a profit.

Maybe so, but it's going to be mathematically impossible for B6 to make money on most routes from DCA!

Quoting enilria (Reply 50): There is almost no local market (and what there appears to be really is double ticketed int'l passengers) and the prorate on connects is probably $65. Ick

B6 is filling much of their BOS-DCA flights with people paying $59 each way!!

Quoting enilria (Reply 50): I'm just saying they aren't going get big fares from the gov't people because of the contracted fares

Government contract fares are still higher than most fares.

Quoting enilria (Reply 50): I bet there are no more than 20 or 30 profitable 50 seater markets in the whole USA if

I think it's a little higher than that, but yes it is difficult to make money with a 50 seater.

I thought with UA/CO SOC that effectively all the flights would be switched to UA. Obviously this is not the case. When will these flight changes be consolidated under the UA code?

Quoting apodino (Reply 57): The one thing I wonder though is the last time an airline switched to SHARES after a merger, which was the US merger, it created an IT fiasco the following day that led to a lot of issues. I hope the same thing doesn't happen with UA.

Me too, especially after the VX disaster they call a "reservations system change". Five months later and people are still screaming bloody murder about lost reservations, inability to checkin...ugh.

I'm hoping that because UA is taking it slowly (it'll be 18 months after the official merger) they are doing the requisite testing.

Quoting enilria (Reply 39): As I stated above, I think they should have just surrendered it because the damage B6 is going to do to DCA-BOS and other routes far outweighs the minimal profits of markets like VPS.

As always you make good points and i see your side. B6 getting additional slots will lower some prices that is for sure but wouldn't all those additional slots combined being the premier DCA airline and the ability to change the portfolio later with those slots be worth more? Some of those routes are small cities but they really might see some profitable last minute flyers. Those cities may also be selected because of what planes are available too. I bet we see US and DL both make quite a few changes in time in the end i think the swap was a good deal for both to focus on one city but i guess time will tell.

Quoting atrude777 (Reply 40): Who did I leave out?

You clearly left out jetblue which is pretty unacceptable when you were blaming me for airlines that i in your own words I "forgot" about on the route. You were the one who attacked me first   when all i said was delta would be a major player in the market which is correct 3x 737-800s will they will be a major player in the market not the largest but one of the major players. Almost a 1000 daily seats a day is a player in the market esecially when delta will probably have a much higher precentage o&d when LGA is added compared to UA, WN or F9 which will certainly be carrying more connections. If you get offended when people fire back then dont start a fight   i didnt say anything false or wrong

All Right...let's get the facts straight...

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 59): You clearly left out jetblue

No I didn't...I explained it here...

Quoting atrude777 (Reply 40): I left out B6 by the way because it was only one flight a day to JFK (even less of a "player"), otherwise I don't think of anyone else I left out. I put "multitude" to understand I know there are more airline choices beyond what I stated as examples.

So no...I did not CLEARLY leave B6 out by accident, it was with intent.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 59): unacceptable when you were blaming me for airlines that i in your own words I "forgot" about on the route.

PLEASE tell me where I said "YOU" forgot the airline? I said "WE", and it is used in a way to involve people inside a conversation when we make a list out to use as examples. You are the one who took it personal and "attacking" if you read my "WE" as "YOU"

Quoting atrude777 (Reply 37): Oh wait! We forgot United which serves all LGA/EWR and F9 which serves LGA.

See...no "you".

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 59): You were the one who attacked me first

Hmmh..no I did not. I merely disagreed with your opinion, and if you call that attacking you should not be online this website, everyone is doing to disagree.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 59): Almost a 1000 daily seats a day is a player in the market

If it was "almost 1,000" seats, sure I'd agree, but it is not. a 738 for Delta seats 160, take 160 times 3 737-800's, and that is 480 seats a day, nowhere NEAR the "1,000" seat number you just gave us. So no NOT a major player when you compare to Southwest who will fly 5 DAILY 737-700's, at 137 seats per flight, times 6 which is 685 seats daily by WN.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 59): delta will probably have a much higher precentage o&d when LGA is added compared to UA, WN or F9 which will certainly be carrying more connections.

How do you figure Delta is going to carry more OD? I won't deny there will be OD nor will I not deny connections. But we have 4 airlines flying DEN-LGA, DL will offer connections on the LGA side (yes, some will be OD) while F9, UA and WN/FL will offer connections on the DEN side, yes some will be OD as well.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 59): If you get offended when people fire back then dont start a fight

Same to you

Alex

Quoting atrude777 (Reply 60): If it was "almost 1,000" seats, sure I'd agree, but it is not. a 738 for Delta seats 160, take 160 times 3 737-800's, and that is 480 seats a day, nowhere NEAR the "1,000" seat number you just gave us. So no NOT a major player when you compare to Southwest who will fly 5 DAILY 737-700's, at 137 seats per flight, times 6 which is 685 seats daily by WN.

Markets go both ways.....so he is correct nearly 1,000 seats in the market. 960 is close enough to 1,000 for me.

Quoting jetmatt777 (Reply 61): Markets go both ways.....so he is correct nearly 1,000 seats in the market. 960 is close enough to 1,000 for me.

No he is not...he is giving me 3 flights here where I quoted it, not 6 flights (which is the market round trip), he is giving me one way data.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 59): 3x 737-800s will they will be a major player

Alex

Quoting globalflyer (Reply 14): Wonder when AM will restart ATL for the nth time? It was announced last year that ATL-MEX and ATL-MTY would be added in 1Q2012. Wonder if it was just another shot in the dark?

No, AM will restart ATL in the 2nd or 3rd quarter, according to this excerpt from Flightglobal:


Aeromexico plans to relaunch services to Atlanta and at least two other US cities in 2012, as part of a plan to grow capacity by up to 13% next year.

The airline's CEO Andres Conesa said the carrier is re-starting flights to Atlanta from Mexico City and Monterrey "for sure", and is studying other US cities on the East Coast.

"We will be there in the summer or the third quarter of 2012," he said.


737 fleet is tight, but 3 brand new 738 are expected by 3Q, so I hope ATL is restarted again.

Quoting atrude777 (Reply 60): Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 59): Almost a 1000 daily seats a day is a player in the market If it was "almost 1,000" seats, sure I'd agree, but it is not. a 738 for Delta seats 160, take 160 times 3 737-800's, and that is 480 seats a day, nowhere NEAR the "1,000" seat number you just gave us. So no NOT a major player when you compare to Southwest who will fly 5 DAILY 737-700's, at 137 seats per flight, times 6 which is 685 seats daily by WN.

Delta is going to have almost 1,00 seats in the market

Quoting jetmatt777 (Reply 61): Markets go both ways.....so he is correct nearly 1,000 seats in the market. 960 is close enough to 1,000 for me.

Thanks jetmatt! Yeah delta is going to have almost 1,000 seats in the market. Markets are both ways! Im sorry but Delta is going to be a player in that market they have too many seats to just be insignificant and they are gonna have to work to fill those with low fares.

Quoting atrude777 (Reply 60): How do you figure Delta is going to carry more OD? I won't deny there will be OD nor will I not deny connections. But we have 4 airlines flying DEN-LGA, DL will offer connections on the LGA side (yes, some will be OD) while F9, UA and WN/FL will offer connections on the DEN side, yes some will be OD as well.

Delta has no hub in DEN to connect anyone. LGA is a horrible connection point and delta is trying to focus on o&d there not create a connection hub. Have you seen how many people WN is connecting these days in DEN, for F9 DEN IS there connection hub, and UA uses DEN to connect alot too. Delta will certainly have the highest percentage o&d they have no where to connect to in DEN and its there plan get NYC o&d with LGA not use it as a connection hub. You clearly have something against Delta on this route but im sorry its a significant increase, noteworthy and they will have alot of seats to fill with O&D pricing.

That is all i have to say on this topic

[Edited 2012-01-07 22:38:43]

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 64): Delta is going to have almost 1,00 seats in the market

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 64): Markets are both ways!

Then you need to clarify you were referring to ROUND TRIP which means SIX Flights, you said and I quote..

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 59): 3x 737-800s will they will be a major player

So I took YOUR Number of 3 flights, and did the math and came up with 480 Seats.

If you want to refer to a round trip then that's fine, and I will then agree Delta will have close to 1,000 seats, but if I will do that I have to do the same to SWA...

Delta--960 Seats (R/T)
Southwest-1,370 Seats (R/T)

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 64): Delta is going to be a player

There we go! That's what I am looking for. A Player, absolutely no doubt, and no argument from me. One of the major's? I would disagree based on the numbers I provided by what you were using.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 64): Delta has no hub in DEN to connect anyone. LGA is a horrible connection point and delta is trying to focus on o&d there not create a connection hub. Have you seen how many people WN is connecting these days in DEN, for F9 DEN IS there connection hub, and UA uses DEN to connect alot too. Delta will certainly have the highest percentage o&d they have no where to connect to in DEN and its there plan get NYC o&d with LGA not use it as a connection hub. You clearly have something against Delta on this route but im sorry its a significant increase, noteworthy and they will have alot of seats to fill with O&D pricing.

You just repeated everything I said? I agreed with everything you said, F9, UA and WN will use DEN as the connecting, DL has no connection in DEN, they need to bank it on NYC-LGA and to an extent JFK.

Significant increase, absolutely, to go from 1 daily in NYC to 3 daily, is noteworthy. I am very excited to see Delta expand in the market, I am Silver Elite on Delta, I fly them quite often when I can, have nothing against them at all! I just didn't feel it was right to call them one of the major players when the limited amount of flights and seats pales in comparison to the others, and for you to out right state as a fact that Delta WILL (your wording) have the highest percentage of OD. It's quite a statement to make.

Alex

  sorry i tried to bite my lip and stop but you are clearly are young and will learn. Nothing i said was wrong or needs to be corrected.

Quoting atrude777 (Reply 65): Then you need to clarify you were referring to ROUND TRIP which means SIX Flights, you said and I quote..

3x 737-800s will they will be a major player

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 64): Delta is going to have almost 1,000 seats in the market

I said it correctly. No correction needed.

Quoting jetmatt777 (Reply 61): Markets go both ways.....so he is correct nearly 1,000 seats in the market. 960 is close enough to 1,000 for me.

Since we are getting technical here and it is causing issues I am going to clarify some things: First of all- a flight is one takeoff and one landing. That is why we refer to it is a "round trip" or "one way." The flight from DEN-LGA will carry a different flight number than the return flight from LGA-DEN.

WIth that being said - by typing it the way you did below:

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 66): 3x 737-800s will they will be a major player

That states 3 flights, not 3 round trips, which does not equal close to 1,000 seats. Don't come onto the forum attacking someone when you didn't type it correctly slcdeltarumd11. If you meant round trips then you need to state round trips which then equals 6 flights, not 3.

Quoting jetmatt777 (Reply 61): Markets go both ways.....so he is correct nearly 1,000 seats in the market. 960 is close enough to 1,000 for me.

He would be correct had he stated 6 flights but he didnt - he stated 3 flights. Here is the quote again in case we need a reminder:

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 59): delta would be a major player in the market which is correct 3x 737-800s will they will be a major player in the market not the largest but one of the major players. Almost a 1000 daily seats a day is a player in the market

Where I am going with this is that we shouldn't be attacking others when our own lack of clarity is what is causing the issues.

slcdeltarumd11 - your responses to atrude777 come across as though you wanted him to assume that you were referring to roundtrip segments totaling 6 flights. If you meant 6 then type 6 next time. Had you typed 6 then your argument would have been valid and justified but you didnt. You typed 3, which means that atrude777's arguments are valid and justified.

As a closer - your condescending tone and overbearing amount of personal pride to the point of ignorance in the following quote is not only rude but not necessary. Age has nothing to do with the amount of intelligence that an individual possesses. Please do us all a favor and reach into history, even extremely recent history at that, and discover how many young brilliant minds changed the world at extremely young ages. I will help direct you to a few that were young in their times of discovery and creation. Many of which you can thank for the developing the very equipment that you are using to read these posts. Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, etc.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 66): sorry i tried to bite my lip and stop but you are clearly are young and will learn. Nothing i said was wrong or needs to be corrected.

Can we get back to the OAG yet and stop the bantering?

Quoting ACJFLYER (Reply 67): Since we are getting technical here and it is causing issues I am going to clarify some things: First of all- a flight is one takeoff and one landing. That is why we refer to it is a "round trip" or "one way." The flight from DEN-LGA will carry a different flight number than the return flight from LGA-DEN. WIth that being said - by typing it the way you did below: Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 66): 3x 737-800s will they will be a major player That states 3 flights, not 3 round trips, which does not equal close to 1,000 seats. Don't come onto the forum attacking someone when you didn't type it correctly slcdeltarumd11. If you meant round trips then you need to state round trips which then equals 6 flights, not 3.

ARE YOU KIDDING ME. All i said was not much and he was the one who clearly entered an attack on me and everything i said. Look if i said something wrong i would be the first one to admit but i don't think i did. I personally hate when people like atrude777 constantly get in these back and fourth attacks but im sorry as much as ive tried i cant bight my tough. I should try to be the better person since he does this so often but I'm sorry to everyone else who has to read this i just can't.

I never used the word flights in the quote you gave you added that. Of course its roundtrips. 99.9 ish% city pairs operate in the same frequency and are both ways its an odd number if there was some irregular flying format that would have been mentioned but of course its three flights each way. When i mentioned almost 1,000 seats in the market and 3x 737-800 that also would indicate its 3x each way to anyone who reads this forum

Ill just say hes right and let him go pick his next back and fourth fight with someone else  

[Edited 2012-01-09 00:57:14]

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 3): Yes. It's interesting not to see a corresponding cut at EWR. Is there that much slack in the DH4 fleet?

Were there cuts at IAH?

Quoting apodino (Reply 52): we haven't really talked much about where the US flights are going.

I assume the Mesaba SF340 operations will just die. I think that was pretty clearly filler to use slots. I expect US operations shrink overall as a result of this deal, but that's the ongoing business plan of Dougie.

Quoting apodino (Reply 52): Is F9 smoking crack by launching DCA-MSN and DCA-GRR on A319s?

I didn't even see that. YES. You have FL/WN flying GRR-BWI. If that ends they might have a chance, but they would have been smarter to just wait for WN to drop it.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 55): Only if B6 can offer enough frequency to be competitive.

Actually it is *extremely* rare for an airline not to match pricing. It almost never happens. The only exceptions are carriers like NK that have a carry on bag fee.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 55): Maybe so, but it's going to be mathematically impossible for B6 to make money on most routes from DCA!

Including the purchase cost, correct.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 55): B6 is filling much of their BOS-DCA flights with people paying $59 each way!!

They are making money it appears to me.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 55): Government contract fares are still higher than most fares.

Keep in mind that govt buys the lowest fare. The contract fare essentially sets a maximum fare, so it is a yield reducer, not an increaser. It is good for traffic, however.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 59): As always you make good points and i see your side.

 

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 59): and the ability to change the portfolio later with those slots be worth more?

The fact US was so slow to go along tell me they thought about just letting it go too. The reason you state may have been the reason they returned to the table.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 59): Some of those routes are small cities but they really might see some profitable last minute flyers.

There is an old saying "if it's worth doing, somebody is doing it". While that's certainly not always true, it is generally true that the next thing added is worse than what you added before it. If not, your planning team is not very good at making route forecasts. You always add the best thing first. There are exceptions, but 80% of the time the rule is accurate.

Quoting enilria (Reply 70): I assume the Mesaba SF340 operations will just die. I think that was pretty clearly filler to use slots. I expect US operations shrink overall as a result of this deal, but that's the ongoing business plan of Dougie.

The US (and Delta) Mesaba Saab 340 operation ended at the end of 2011.

Quoting apodino (Reply 52): While it has been talked about extensively about DL having to downsize some hubs to get the added lift, we haven't really talked much about where the US flights are going.

My guess is that a fair amount of that US flying at LGA is just going away. Close to 80 of the daily departures from LGA being dropped by US are on Piedmont Dash-8's. Unfortunately for the EN employees, I think those aircraft will just be parked for good.

Quoting enilria (Reply 70): You always add the best thing first. There are exceptions, but 80% of the time the rule is accurate.

IMO the US adds at DCA aren't about adding the next-best-thing; they are about artificially constraining capacity while giving the appearance of "serving the consumer" by adding new non-stop destinations. Do ISP/FAY/OAJ really need non-stop service to DCA more than BTR/OKC/MGM? Or would an additional non-stop competitor in monopoly markets like DCA-DFW, DCA-IAH, DCA-CLE, DCA-MIA, or DCA-MSP bring more benefit to consumers?

Quoting apodino (Reply 52): Is F9 smoking crack by launching DCA-MSN and DCA-GRR on A319s? These are routes DL is giving up, but I can't believe F9 would be successful with them. I think US could with RJ's, but F9? I don't get it.

I'm not a big fan of the schedule, since neither of DCA-MSN or DCA-GRR is daily, but they are served as one-stops to/from DEN. They gain some local traffic on both legs and essentially are able to pick up an additional slot for DEN-DCA as well.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 71): Quoting enilria (Reply 70): I assume the Mesaba SF340 operations will just die. I think that was pretty clearly filler to use slots. I expect US operations shrink overall as a result of this deal, but that's the ongoing business plan of Dougie. The US (and Delta) Mesaba Saab 340 operation ended at the end of 2011.

Didn't even know that. Well, I assume whatever props they threw in there when that died are easily shed.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 72): Quoting enilria (Reply 70): You always add the best thing first. There are exceptions, but 80% of the time the rule is accurate. IMO the US adds at DCA aren't about adding the next-best-thing; they are about artificially constraining capacity while giving the appearance of "serving the consumer" by adding new non-stop destinations.

That's even worse, but I don't argue it.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 72): Do ISP/FAY/OAJ really need non-stop service to DCA more than BTR/OKC/MGM? Or would an additional non-stop competitor in monopoly markets like DCA-DFW, DCA-IAH, DCA-CLE, DCA-MIA, or DCA-MSP bring more benefit to consumers?

The latter, of course.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 72): I'm not a big fan of the schedule, since neither of DCA-MSN or DCA-GRR is daily, but they are served as one-stops to/from DEN. They gain some local traffic on both legs and essentially are able to pick up an additional slot for DEN-DCA as well.

OK, I didn't know DCA-MSN/GRR was non-daily. Apparently in the F9 world DCA-MSN/GRR is a leisure market.