Boeing Adds 25 787s From Unidentified Customer(s)

KC135R · Thu Jan 05, 2012 5:32 pm

According to the updated O&D page through 31 December 2011, 25 orders for the 787 from an unidentified customer(s):

http://active.boeing.com/commercial/orders/index.cfm

As pointed out per flightblogger, brings the net 787 orders for the year back into the positive by 13:

http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/flightblogger/

ck8msp · Thu Jan 05, 2012 5:40 pm

speculation on the buyer(s)?

LH506 · Thu Jan 05, 2012 5:42 pm

AA finally firming up their order.

ck8msp · Thu Jan 05, 2012 5:44 pm

Quoting LH506 (Reply 2):
AA finally firming up their order.

That was my first thought but could that really be kept secret through the courts? Are they in a position to firm orders DURING chap 11?

Stitch · Thu Jan 05, 2012 5:44 pm

Well if it is the same customer for the 767 and 787, that's pretty narrow since NH, JL and LA have been the main buyers of 767s as of late who are also 787 customers.

I suppose NH could be "doubling down" on the 787.

Is JL still in bankruptcy reorganization? They might be looking at a major order to retire older aircraft.

AF/KL also have 25 787s they need to formally sign for.

Quoting LH506 (Reply 2):
AA finally firming up their order.

They have 42 787-9s on MoU, but they might be securing the first tranche of delivery positions they hold.

[Edited 2012-01-05 09:48:15]

STT757 · Thu Jan 05, 2012 5:50 pm

Quoting LH506 (Reply 2):
AA finally firming up their order.

Quoting ck8msp (Reply 3):
That was my first thought but could that really be kept secret through the courts?

It would have to be approved by the courts, no way they would just announce it.

flythere · Thu Jan 05, 2012 5:52 pm

chance for any Chinese carriers?

Stitch · Thu Jan 05, 2012 5:53 pm

In the case of AA, because the customer is a UFO, it's possible that the Bankruptcy Court has approved the order, allowing Boeing to record it, but until AA formally announces it, it would be listed as a UFO.

EDIT - One source states these 25 787s are 787-9s.

[Edited 2012-01-05 09:57:09]

mauriceb · Thu Jan 05, 2012 6:05 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 7):
EDIT - One source states these 25 787s are 787-9s.

I guess this will be the AF-KL order.. would match with the -9 and the amount on order..

columba · Thu Jan 05, 2012 8:20 pm

Wasn´t there a rumor that LH here a while ago that LH will order 25 787-9s and several A350s as well ?

BMI727 · Thu Jan 05, 2012 8:26 pm

Quoting columba (Reply 9):
Wasn´t there a rumor that LH here a while ago that LH will order 25 787-9s and several A350s as well ?

I could see it for a subsidiary (OS or SN most likely) but I would be very surprised to ever see a 787 in the Lufthansa fleet.

boeing773er · Thu Jan 05, 2012 8:46 pm

I'm thinking this is the works of AA.

Yes, they are in bankruptcy but this is short term, getting these 787's is an important thing for the long term.

enilria · Thu Jan 05, 2012 8:54 pm

Quoting ck8msp (Reply 3):
That was my first thought but could that really be kept secret through the courts? Are they in a position to firm orders DURING chap 11?

Any large widebody aircraft order is EK isn't it? LOL

AA could firm it, but not without it being a public court ruling we would read about.

Stitch · Thu Jan 05, 2012 9:29 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 12):
Any large widebody aircraft order is EK isn't it? LOL

While intended as a joke, there is speculation / opinion that EK's large 777-300ER order was a warning to Airbus about delays to the A350-1000 so it's not beyond the realm of possibility that EK could order some 787-9s as a warning to Airbus about the A350-900. That being said, it would be a more effective as a warning if they actually announced they were the customer.

In that vein, however, could QR conceivably covering their bases on the A350-900? They have 30 787-8s on order, so adding 25 787-9s would provide them room (in theory) if the A350-900 encounters additional delays.

BMI727 · Thu Jan 05, 2012 9:36 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 13):
so it's not beyond the realm of possibility that EK could order some 787-9s as a warning to Airbus about the A350-900.

I don't think that EK would go for anything smaller than an A350-900. The A330s will keep plugging along until they are retired and then EK will focus on bigger planes. Adding a new fleet type would be a big step to take compared to adding more of the same in 77Ws. Not to mention that they might keep on taking those even when they do get A350-1000s.

I think something big would need to be wrong with the A350-900 for Emirates to consider a step like buying 25 787-9s. And before they do that wouldn't we at least have to listen to several months of Tim Clark trying to get Boeing to launch a 787-10?

Stitch · Fri Jan 06, 2012 12:20 am

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 14):
I don't think that EK would go for anything smaller than an A350-900.

The 787-9 is not terribly smaller than the A350-900 - about 27 seats (3 rows of Economy).

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 14):
I think something big would need to be wrong with the A350-900 for Emirates to consider a step like buying 25 787-9s.

Agreed. I was not seriously offering the opinion that EK had ordered the 787-9, just that such a scenario is not totally without merit.

I'd expect QR to order the 787-9 as a "hedge" against late A350-900 deliveries much, much more than EK, but even there, it's at best a random guess on my part, not a formal suggestion / opinion.

a340crew · Fri Jan 06, 2012 12:31 am

EI...ground breaking order, will announce intentions to launch flights to africa, asia, and australia as well as expand into canada and more us cities. Also some Caribbean holiday seasonal flights. A350 order to be axed. This came from a confirmed source.

mffoda · Fri Jan 06, 2012 12:49 am

Quoting A340crew (Reply 16):
A350 order to be axed. This came from a confirmed source.

what is your definition of a "confirmed source" ??

jfk777 · Fri Jan 06, 2012 12:53 am

Could it be Delta ? they have not signed up for a new generation intercontinental jet.

Stitch · Fri Jan 06, 2012 1:02 am

Quoting A340crew (Reply 16):
EI...ground breaking order, will announce intentions to launch flights to africa, asia, and australia as well as expand into canada and more us cities. Also some Caribbean holiday seasonal flights. A350 order to be axed. This came from a confirmed source.

Well it would certainly be ground-breaking on a number of levels. EI is an all-Airbus operator, so adding the 787 would be a radical departure for them and would complicate their pilot pool, since they'd now have separate ones for their narrowbody (Airbus) and widebody (Boeing) fleets. It would also be ground-breaking as a major expansion, since they have 9 A350-900s on order and 3 A330-200s and 4 A330-300s - 25 787-9s would more than triple their long-haul fleet.

I know never to say never, but I admit I want to say never.

delimit · Fri Jan 06, 2012 1:04 am

Delta actually has 787s on order they inherited from NW in the merger; but they were deferred until 2020 or thereabouts. While I would not be at all surprised to see that date move forward, now really doesn't seem like the time.

They are refurbing their 767s rather than retiring them right now. They are also engaged in a massive multiyear debt reduction project.

I'd expect news in another year or two at the earliest

[Edited 2012-01-05 17:06:56]

BMI727 · Fri Jan 06, 2012 1:06 am

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 18):
Could it be Delta ?

They'd probably just un-defer the 787s ordered by Northwest prior to the merger.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 19):
Well it would certainly be ground-breaking on a number of levels.

It would somewhat make sense considering that EI doesn't really need a lot of capacity and they don't really need a lot of range either. But 25 is a ton of planes for them, so I'm inclined to believe it isn't them.

shamrock604 · Fri Jan 06, 2012 1:08 am

Quoting A340crew (Reply 16):
EI...ground breaking order, will announce intentions to launch flights to africa, asia, and australia as well as expand into canada and more us cities. Also some Caribbean holiday seasonal flights. A350 order to be axed. This came from a confirmed source.

The A350 is now just wrong, wrong, wrong for EI.

While I doubt this 787 order is from EI, I think it will happen. EI has already said that the A350 does not suit them now.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 19):
Well it would certainly be ground-breaking on a number of levels. EI is an all-Airbus operator, so adding the 787 would be a radical departure for them and would complicate their pilot pool, since they'd now have separate ones for their narrowbody (Airbus) and widebody (Boeing) fleets. It would also be ground-breaking as a major expansion, since they have 9 A350-900s on order and 3 A330-200s and 4 A330-300s - 25 787-9s would more than triple their long-haul fleet.

EI do not cross qualify their A320 and A330 crews, so it would be no more complicated that things are now.

That said, EI may expand US and Canada, maybe a couple of frequencies to the caribbean. Maybe long term one Asian route plus Cape Town. But that's it - it won't be as ground breaking as thought!

aerorobnz · Fri Jan 06, 2012 1:12 am

In the dream stakes...
NZ ordering some 787-8s in addition to their -9s (which they should never have transferred their orders to.IMO) This would allow them to open up services to SEA/ORD/YYZ/SGN/DPS/MNL/SCL/EZE/GRU/GIG/LIM/BOG/JNB/BKK/ADD/MAN/MUC

lol...

I suspect the order will be for LATAM group.

shamrock604 · Fri Jan 06, 2012 3:40 am

Quoting A340crew (Reply 16):
EI...ground breaking order, will announce intentions to launch flights to africa, asia, and australia as well as expand into canada and more us cities. Also some Caribbean holiday seasonal flights. A350 order to be axed. This came from a confirmed source.

Actually, it's funny you should say that as apparently the 787 is due to visit DUB in the next couple of weeks.

That said, even if it was an EI order - 25 units is surely WAY too many.......

hnl-jack · Fri Jan 06, 2012 4:41 am

I suspect we could see several orders for the 787 from unexpected customers fairly soon as fuel prices are expected to increase pretty dramatically, particularly in the Pacific over the next 12 to eighteen months. Airlines that were planning to use their 767's late into the decade or beyond may have to rethink that decision. And, should the A-350 begin to experience additional delays, all the more reason to lock into some 787 positions.

astuteman · Fri Jan 06, 2012 6:13 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 13):
While intended as a joke, there is speculation / opinion that EK's large 777-300ER order was a warning to Airbus about delays to the A350-1000 so it's not beyond the realm of possibility that EK could order some 787-9s as a warning to Airbus about the A350-900

EK made it quite clear that they HAD to order the 773ER's to cover off the capacity shortfall caused by moving the A350-1000 EIS from 2015 to 2017. End of.

I'd love to see on what planet EK could acquire a large number of orders for 787-9's before they are going to get their A350-900's. Which they have expressed contentment with as a product..

Rgds

CHRISBA777ER · Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:53 am

Quoting A340crew (Reply 16):
EI...ground breaking order, will announce intentions to launch flights to africa, asia, and australia as well as expand into canada and more us cities. Also some Caribbean holiday seasonal flights. A350 order to be axed. This came from a confirmed source

A little bird tells me EI are going to be acquired this year and that negotiations have already begun - was told by them definitively that NO decision on new planes would be taken until the negotiations had come to their end, one way or another.

So I'd say your "confirmed source" is pulling your leg matey.

Even if negotiations were happening, EI doesnt have the traffic to run to DXB out of DUB let alone anywhere in Asia, and Australia is just Jackanory I'm afraid. Even if the DUB runway was long enough (and I dont think it is?) there is just no call whatsoever in such expansion.

And even if there was suddenly a four fold increase in traffic and yields out of DUB that would make a PEK/NRT/YYZ/MIA/SYD/SIN effort even remotely viable you could do it with a lot less than 25 birds.

DALCE · Fri Jan 06, 2012 10:21 am

How about Boeing creating a phantom-order just to have a positive 787-sales balance for 2011, without having an actual order on hand.
Marketing people are bas people you know

It is just speculation, but I can imagine Boeing doesn't want a negative orderbook in the annual results.

Burkhard · Fri Jan 06, 2012 10:29 am

Quoting DALCE (Reply 28):
How about Boeing creating a phantom-order just to have a positive 787-sales balance for 2011, without having an actual order on hand.

No. This could be a serious thing becoming very expensive to cheat share holders...

DALCE · Fri Jan 06, 2012 10:32 am

obviously they would never ever confirm such a thing....

CHRISBA777ER · Fri Jan 06, 2012 10:46 am

Quoting DALCE (Reply 30):
obviously they would never ever confirm such a thing

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 29):
Quoting DALCE (Reply 28):
How about Boeing creating a phantom-order just to have a positive 787-sales balance for 2011, without having an actual order on hand.

No. This could be a serious thing becoming very expensive to cheat share holders...

Safe to say Boeing are not desperate to sell Dreamliners and certainly not desperate to risk being up on Federal charges for financial irregularities.

Besides, if thy were to end with a negative orderbook it isnt necessarily the end of the world - it would drive share price down as the more risk averse/less savvy investors walk away and then you'd see a buy run on as they would be underpriced. Upward momentum is a precious thing. I'm buying Boeing stock right now put it that way.

cmf · Fri Jan 06, 2012 11:06 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 13):
it's not beyond the realm of possibility that EK could order some 787-9s as a warning to Airbus about the A350-900.

An incredibly expensive warning message. I would consider that a de facto reduction of A350 orders.

Quoting DALCE (Reply 28):
It is just speculation, but I can imagine Boeing doesn't want a negative orderbook in the annual results.

Auditors would never sign off and then all hell would break lose.

It would be infinitely more likely the would convince an existing good customer to top up without deposits and no penalties for canceling until just before manufacturing starts. And I give that option less of a chance than a snowball in hell.

kaitak · Fri Jan 06, 2012 11:36 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 27):
Even if negotiations were happening, EI doesnt have the traffic to run to DXB out of DUB let alone anywhere in Asia, and Australia is just Jackanory I'm afraid. Even if the DUB runway was long enough (and I dont think it is?) there is just no call whatsoever in such expansion.

I'm with CHRISBA777ER on this; I'd have believed the rumour about 787s, were it not for this "rumour" about new routes; it just doesn't ring true; EI's CEO has said that there will be no eastbound expansion (not with its own metal anyway) and the imminent EK route from DUB kills any prospect of a DXB route. Given the state of the Irish economy and declining discretionary income due to new taxes, I think that Ireland will be lucky to keep the long haul route is has now (including EK, of course - I hope!)

I do agree that the A350 is wrong for EI and I've always said that, BUT I do expect EI to be a target for acquisition, whether it's by EY, LH or whoever; I think that whoever does buy EI will recognise that an aircraft 20% larger than the 330 will be too big for EI and I happen to think that the 787 is the best choice.

Of course, as others have said, even if EI were to acquire 787s, it wouldn't be anything close to 25; no more than 6-8 would be likely. So, who else can it be?

Turkish - they've long been talked of as a possible 787 customer
Lufthansa - for its subsidiary/partner airlines - SN, OS, LX (although I consider the latter for more likely to be a 350 customer)
SAS - 25 seems way too many, but more credible if this 25 is for 2 customers; I'd see SK taking about 14-18.
CAL - those A340s aren't going to go on forever; a combined order to replace A330s (which are very new) and A340s would bring it close to 25.
LAN/TAM - given the merger, an order to replace TAM's A330s might make sense, since LAN already has the 787 on order
IAG - for Iberia; I'd see IB as much more likely to be a 350 customer, but since BA has ordered the 787, it has to have a chance with IB

That's about all I can think of, apart from major leasing companies - always a possibility.

PM · Fri Jan 06, 2012 12:36 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 27):
A little bird tells me EI are going to be acquired this year

IAG one assumes...?

aviasian · Fri Jan 06, 2012 1:40 pm

Perhaps China Eastern getting back into the order book ... or other Chinese carriers.

KC Sim

scouseflyer · Fri Jan 06, 2012 2:13 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 34):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 27):
A little bird tells me EI are going to be acquired this year

IAG one assumes...?

This would be my feeling and I guess, as far as the Irish Gov goes who hold shares, it's anyone but Ryanair!

To me this order is clearly the firming of the 25 for AF/KL and I expect Airbus to announce 25 orders for the A350 in 10 days time too. which would coincidentally take the A350 into positive order territory for orders this year too.

mffoda · Fri Jan 06, 2012 11:15 pm

Bloomberg has their sources saying it is the AF/KLM order completed before Christmas...

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...id-to-confirm-air-france-deal.html

scbriml · Fri Jan 06, 2012 11:21 pm

Quoting mffoda (Reply 37):
Bloomberg has their sources saying it is the AF/KLM order completed before Christmas...

Not a huge surprise. Given that AF had already announced their intention to place the order, I wonder if the only reason for anonymity is that they've yet to make an engine choice?

I also wonder if they've kept things really tidy by firming their A350 order as well?

[Edited 2012-01-06 15:22:22]

delimit · Fri Jan 06, 2012 11:28 pm

Ah yes. I am sure we are all on the edge of our seats waiting on the AF GE or RR announcement. Which one wi it be?!
:D

EPA001 · Sat Jan 07, 2012 12:33 am

Quoting mffoda (Reply 37):
Bloomberg has their sources saying it is the AF/KLM order completed before Christmas...

That makes the most sense when hearing this number of ordered B878's. Still it is good that the year total is back in the positive numbers again.

.

Stitch · Sat Jan 07, 2012 12:46 am

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 40):
That makes the most sense when hearing this number of ordered B878's.

The model is actually the 787-9, which is also the model AF/KL ordered.

PM · Sat Jan 07, 2012 12:49 am

Quoting delimit (Reply 39):
Ah yes. I am sure we are all on the edge of our seats waiting on the AF GE or RR announcement. Which one wi it be?!

You might be surprised...

Stitch · Sat Jan 07, 2012 12:51 am

Quoting PM (Reply 42):
You might be surprised...

But I have a feeling you won't be.

EPA001 · Sat Jan 07, 2012 12:57 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 41):
The model is actually the 787-9

Oops, I mixed up the keys on my keyboard. Well, it is late on this side of the pond, that must be the reason.

.

You are of course totally correct.

.

delimit · Sat Jan 07, 2012 1:04 am

Quoting PM (Reply 42):

Surprise would certainly be the right word.

Alitalia744 · Sat Jan 07, 2012 1:10 am

Is AF leaning GE or RR?

Stitch · Sat Jan 07, 2012 1:15 am

Quoting alitalia744 (Reply 46):
Is AF leaning GE or RR?

Recent history would say leaning towards GE, but their A350s are only available with RR.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 38):
Given that AF had already announced their intention to place the order, I wonder if the only reason for anonymity is that they've yet to make an engine choice?

If AF/KL want to make a "complete package" announcement of the 787, A350 and engine order, that would make sense.

[Edited 2012-01-06 17:49:20]

Viscount724 · Sat Jan 07, 2012 1:27 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 4):
Is JL still in bankruptcy reorganization?

They exited bankruptcy protection sometime last year. Reports this week say they're planning an IPO to raise approximately 500 billion Yen (approximately $6.5 billion).
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jal...-billion-in-ipo-2012-01-05-2347270

PM · Sat Jan 07, 2012 1:38 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 43):
But I have a feeling you won't be.

Just a hunch.

Quoting alitalia744 (Reply 46):
Is AF leaning GE or RR?

AF (and KLM for that matter) have a long and deep relationship with GE. I can't begin to think when AF last chose another engine when there was a GE option available. This was based in part on SNECMA's involvement in many GE (and, obviously, CFM) engines.

But...

SNECMA (Safran) aren't on the GEnx.

And...

AF/KL have already signed up for the RR TXWB on the A350.

And...

It has been widely reported that AF/KL have been negotiating with RR for some months regarding an order for Trent 1000s.

GE may yet get the order. But it isn't the slam dunk (I believe that's the expression) it might have been hitherto.

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