What's happening with it, err, when can we expect this to happen (if anyone knows)? Also, will it include the Air Canada Cargo orders for 747-433F's and an announcement of a contract award for the conversion of the 767-200's that aren't ER's (GAU#/GPW# etc) into fully fledged freighters? And finally, I haven't heard it but can we suspect any possibility of A3XX's being announced? Slawko was saying AC is looking into an A3XX sized hangar at YYZ. Also, from what I heard, not only are 717's being looked at, but so are 767-400ER's, which IMHO aren't suitable as their flightdeck is not common with the earlier 767's and AC has the 4 A330's with 6 more to be delivered, and I hear rumours of the longer range -200 being announced. This is an exciting time to be a fanatic of aviation in Canada. Now if only AC would lower those bloody ridiculous fares  .

Uh-oh, forgot one last thing.... When does the 1st A340-500 arrive? 2002?

Jeremy

Robert Milton was at the University of Manitoba on Thursday, where my brother heard him guest speak. Milton said to expect the aircraft order to made in one week. He (Milton) said that the F28 was the first aircraft to be fully replaced.

Rumor mill quotes:

a)30-35 717s to replace remaining DC930s plus some older 737-200s.

b)more CRJs(possibly some -700s), which will replace F28s and some domestic 737s.

I have heard nor seen NADA on the 764. It just doesn't make sense at this time.

The 744 seems very likely as well IMHO.

744F's have a major hang-up: Air Canada doesn't have the all-cargo rights to China. I also have a hard time seeing this at this point, passenger fleet renewal is definitely their current priority. Any freighter orders, or even conversions of anything (unless it was their parked 742's) will probably be 2-5 years in the making.

The newly ratified AC pilots contract calls for the CRJ's to be passed over to the regionals. This means that effectively regional F28's will end up being replaced by CRJ's, and new aircraft will replace CRJ's. I have heard rumours of an order for CRJ700's for the mainline, but I don't know about that, it would seem odd to split the commonality between mainline and regional carriers. Who knows, however, what will happen.

Next week is the time I've heard from various sources, so we'll see then. I suspect more 319's and some 321's will be in the works. The 319's in particular are good replacements for the longer 737 routes, and 321's could possibly supplement and possibly replace some 762's on trunk routes. I suspect shorter 737 and DC-9 routes, or possibly mainline CRJ's (required to replace them in mainline fleet before handing over to regionals) may be replaced by 717's simply because of delivery times available, and good suitability for some routes. I also wouldn't be too surprised by more additional 767's, either new or used. On 767's the engine choice will be especially interesting: P&W (AC fleet) or GE (CP fleet).

I just hope they order from Boeing. I have a feeling they won't though.

Brian

How about AC's dissatisfaction with the 747-400 Combi? Will this play into any 744F order? What about the existing 747-400C fleet that could be converted?
I have been informed by a *very reliable source within AC* that AC cant wait to get rid of the 747-400 Combis or convert them over to all cargo.

From what I've been told, the Combis couldnt make HKG or NRT with a profit making load whatsoever, The words "A Real Dog.." being used to describe the 744-400C. AC lost it's shirt with them no matter how they tried. This accroding to my source..

Hence it explains AC's replacement of the type with the A340-300 in large part across the Pacific, which has been doing *very well* since.

I'd love to hear some feedback from some folks who have exposure at AC on this.

Regards
MAC

Hey CNBC you never know... Airlines sometimes like to switch suppliers as a means of not letting the "preferred supplier" think they have a shoe-in order and thus think they can charge any price. It may finally be Boeing's turn... I just hope they include a few 757s and 777s and maybe a 767-400 or two.. Some Asian airlines have a mix of A330/340 and 777s, so it is feasible in some instances.

What would the engine choices be if they got the 777 or A318? I would hope for Rolls Royce 3XX and PW for the A318.

Canada's market is not large enough to sustain A3XX. Possible A3XX routes can be yvr-hkg and yyz-lhr. Besides that, there are very few routes that can support the A3XX.

The ideal transatlantic plane for Canada is the B767-300er and the B767-400er. For examplle, toronto-copenhagen / munich are underseved with a 767-200er and howevr overserved with an A330-300, thus the B767-400 seems ideal.

Domestically, the B757 fits well into patterns. The 757 is the difference between an B767 and an A320. Many routes need that slight difference of capacity. The A319 is ideal for transborder routes, but since the regional jet are going to the regionals, what ever happens to such routes like Montreal-Boston, Montreal-Philadelphia and Toronto-Cleveland that are operated with CRJ's....they will need some type of A318 or smaller....

Mark

Hey Mac. I don’t know where you get your information. I have a credible source within the airline as well and I hear that AC is fairly satisfied with their 74E’s. Don’t forget, AC’s 74E’s were specially modified and are heavier than any other 747 made, making them the heaviest commercial aircraft in flight today. As well, their range is significantly shorter than any other 744 variant. You may be right that they cannot do a YVR-HKG route, but they are used on the YYZ-FRA and YYZ-LHR routes and do very well. In fact, AC is making heavy profits on those routes, so I don’t see where you found the “losing money” bit. I’ve flown on an AC 74E and found them to be very comfortable and very well maintained. The only reason they're replacing their 74E's is because they have an exclusive contract with Airbus, not because of poor performance. BTW, AC never operated their 74E's across the Pacific. heck, they didn't even operate in Asia when they ordered them.

As for AC replacing the CP 744's with A340's, no fucking way. They'd be crazy if they did that, especially considering the massive traffic between YVR and HKG. CX fills two daily 744 flights between the two cities. They can hardly keep up with demand. Vancouver has one of the largest Chinese populations in North America and an A340 will not suit that route nicely. They don't plan on replacing those 744's anytime soon. Especially since they've cancelled their A346 order. Actually, there've been a lot of complaints about the A340 being used on that route.

Here are some of my thoughts that AC should order....(it's not all up to me but i think it's reasonable)....


737-200 replaced by A318 or A319 (I dun see any sense AC would look into the 737 NG's)

DC9's and F28 be replaced by B717or CRJ's


then as for the
767-200 convert the non ER's into freighters

I think AC should consider the 757-300.......for high capacity domestic of transborder routes....

AS for rumors of 777 or 767-400......it's not going to happen!!........unless Ac scrap the A340's for 777 (like Singapore Airlines).......

Then for thoses 3 747-400C and 4 747-400's from CP........Wonder if AC is going to convert the combis to full pax.....I think.....it will help on routes like YYZ-LHR or FRA
and YVR-HKG and also Bangkok or Singapore if they expand on Asian services......

AC will probably replace it with A340-500 an 600 in the future......


as for the A3XX.......Canada is a small market for that type of plane.......well......if they have a combi version of the A3XX then....it may be a possiblity........


-B-HOX The Spirit of Hong Kong 2000-
Same Team Same Dream

FLYYUL: You're going to see a 332 in AC colors before you'll ever see a 764. That would be the plane Air Canada uses for the Munich route. As for as possible A3XX orders are concerned, I think the only route it could realistically be used on is YVR-HKG. Already, there are two airlines flying four packed flights daily and always demand for more. YYZ-LHR isn't in as much demand.

I think if AC buys A3XX, besdies employing them to HKG, they should considered Taipei as well. They're many times when I'm on this flight they often overbooked the flight and at least 10 passenger have to get off the plane from 744.

I understand that AC is satisfied with it's 74E's. Where are you folks getting any info to the contrary?

MAC-

I'd be very curious to know who your "very reliable source" is, because, to the contrary of what this person says, the 747's position in the Air Canada fleet is actually strengthened by the arrival of the Canadi>n 744s. The arrival of the CP aircraft makes the type more economically viable, and I've heard that there even may be an order for a few more in the near future.

As for the A3XX, nobody around here has heard anything about it. Aside from YVR-HKG, we don't have the market for such an aircraft. I feel sorry for the poor bastards that would have to work gates for such an aircraft. Can you imagine getting accomodations for 550 people if the flight cancels?

777/764? Keep on dreaming. As much as I wish we could see a 777 in Air Canada colors, it won't happen in the near future, unless Boeing does with AC what it did with SQ. I don't think that would happen, but on the other hand, Air Canada is a very important, very respected carrier, and to see SQ and AC both dump the A340 for the 777 would be quite a blow to Airbus... Too bad it probably won't happen. Not that the A340 is a bad airplane, but in choosing the A340 over the 777, Air Canada pissed off a lot of its pilots, many of its passengers that have experienced the comfort of the 777 on another carrier, and there have been allegations of political tampering in Air Canada's decision. I'm not talking about the kind of "gentle encouragement" that American politicians and European heads of state practice, I'm talking about a kickback scheme and the whole thing....

And the 717? I haven't heard it mentioned at all, but, yeah, I guess it sounds logical.

Please remember that what I've stated is either my opinion or a summarization of what I've heard through the rumor mill. What I've said does not necessarily represent the official position of Air Canada.

Pat

In my opinion:

I would put the Canadian fleet all BOEING with 777's 747's 767's and 737NG's and then I would make an All AIRBUS Fleet whith Air Canada with planes A340 A330 A321/320/319/318 and maybe an A3XX. But one can only dream. As for my self as a pilot I think I will work for Qantas in the future.

Ok for all of those who say there is no market for the A3xx in Canada, I don;t know where you live or what routes you have flown on AC with, but the XX would fit in Canada very well, all-beit in small numbers.....

Air Canada has up three LHR flights a day, as well as 2 FRA's out of YYZ and these flights are always full, Not to mention the YYZ-NRT, and YVR - HKG and NRT and YUL-CDG. If Ac was to buy this POS airplane then I think that a total of 5-7 planes would be fine.

AS for the other airplanes no one can tell for sure, it is all up in the air, and I am sure we will all fid out within the next week or so.

Then we can start a topic and argue about the crappy airbuses that AC bought, ONCE AGAIN!!!

I think Toronto-London is flown up to 6 times a day in the summer. I did a query for YYZ-LHR last summer and saw 6 departures, all non-stop one day, all operated by AC.

A Boeing fleet for CP, and an Airbus fleet for AC? CP won't exist this time next year!

Looks like CP will not last till this time next month!!

Well lets see....

Just 2 point out a few things:

the 74Es have flown to Asia, NewDelhi, and for a time to HongKong from YVR.

the A3XX wont happen in NorthAmerica at all if you ask me... how AC would even think of it is beyond me, i have NEVER seen a full 747 on AC, closest i ever got was about 90% economy on a YYZ-MIA flight in 95 (and it was a full 747-100 BTW)
Even for YYZ-LHR i dont think they could fill it more than 75%. Better to have 2 A340s than 1 A3XX in any AIRLINES head anyways, though probably not in the head of the airports   .

i would be suprised to say the least if ACA ended up buying the 717. The bad blood between AC and Boeing is getting better... but not that much.

777 forget it...

764.... i doubt it... theres more pilots qualified to operate the 320/330/340 than the 767s so id see the A330-200 over the 764. Also, i can see LOTS more A340s over the next few years....


As for what i think this is it:

F.28 replacement: CRJ-700s or -900s
737/DC-9: A318

Cargo... maybe, but i doubt a 747-400F is in the picture there

As for how long Canadian will last... 3 years Tops... probably 18 months, just long enough for Consumers to forget what CDN used to be like...

I don;t know where you have been looking, but almost every flight in the last week to LHR, or FRA from YYZ has been full, 747 or A340. I hate the idea of the xx but ac could easily use a few of them especially with some of the added amenities avaliable on those planes. We have the worlds fastest growing economy, and as such the travel industry is booming regardless of destination. The 318 is to far down the road for AC to be looking at it, they need a replacement right now, and the 717 is it. I strongly believe that AC will go with the 717, and I hope that they do!! Either way plastic or metal I can;t wait to hear what AC has decided to buy.

But for those who have hopes for the 777 or 764 I'd love to be that optomistic, but it will never happen, especialy as long as Airbus pedles their plastic for next to nothing.

But I do think that more 767-300's are on the way, AC loves that plane, and it is perfect for many of the new Air Canada Markets.

My Personal Opinion: Air Canda Pilots have always liked Boeing very much, both the aircraft and how they are operated. When the decision to change to the A320 was announced there was much problems over the handling and operation of the plane. Many still resent the fact that AC switched even though the pilots wholeheartedly asked them not to. My guess is with the merger of both AC and CN that the pilots are even stronger. Recently there has been some serious talk about the possible break-up of Canada, and that ties with the US are becoming stronger because of it.

An Interesting Scenario:
Airbus Narrow-Body Fleet Remains
A-330s & A-340s are bought by Boeing, A340s sold to Cathay or Virgin and A-330s sold to US Airways.
Boeing 777 & 767 reordered as well as 747X.

Well your scenerio is interesting, in still very possible. But the part about Canada Breaking up??? Stronger ties with the US?? Well there is where I would disagree, most of us would rether die then hand over our contry to the US. The only reason that AC will go with boeing is that the planes are more readily avaliable and suite AC's needs better then plastic does.

I would like to respesctfully disagree to your two main points:

1. Air Canada selling off its long-range Airbus fleet to make way for all-Boeing fleet. Not going to happen This is not a smart business decision unless Boeing gives the airplanes away. It would be nice for Boeing fans but is so far out it is hard to even mention this idea. They have many orders pending for A340-500 and A330 and would pay severe cancellation fees. And no way Airbus will let Boeing undercut them on one of their "star" customers.

However, I don't think you'll see Air Canada order everything possible from Airbus...if only to avoid the political consequences. AC is seriously considering converting the early (non-ER) 767-200s to an all freight configuration. There is room for the 757-200/300 in this replacement. Also, don't be surprised to see B717 for the 146/DC9 replacements...if only for the faster delivery times. More 767-300s are also possible - they are perfect for most European routes.

2.
Recently there has been some serious talk about the possible break-up of Canada, and that ties with the US are becoming stronger because of it.

Incorrect. Sepratism is still present but support for another refferendum is very low right now.

DeltaAir, you said "Recently there has been some serious talk about the possible break-up of Canada." What is your idea of recent??? That was in 1995.

Also, USAir wouldn't want AC's 330's: they're Rolls-Royce powered, and AC is quite happy with them.

One other thing. The pilots were part of the group supporting 320 purchases back in 1987 when they ordered them.

I can't see 777's at AC. They want the 4 engines over the pacific and for many routes they wouldn't need more than 300 seats, and I doubt they'll split the fleet between 777/340, there simply isn't enough fleet size to justify spares and facilities for both. 764's are also unlikely. Probability is that the 763 fleet will grow further (BTW, AC has more 767's than 340/330's, by a long shot). Delivery time, delivery time, delivery time, and price will give the 717 a good shot.

Your probably right about Canada. Although I still know there are a lot of divides between people up there.

Maybe divided in some ways, but the one thing that unites us is that we ARE NOT AMERICANS, AND PROUD OF IT!!!!

DeltaAir, you said: "Although I still know there are a lot of divides between people up there"

Yeah, so, there's still signs of the north/south divide in the US dating back to the civil war, what's your point?

Perhaps he is referring to the whole Quebec issue with the referendums and what not?

As far as fleet replacement regarding the A318, good things come to those who wait...

But that won't happen and I see the 717 having a real shot along with more 763 ER's.

I get my source on the AC 74E range problems -over the Pacific- from an Air Canada employee who is also ex-Canadian Airlines. He has told me -definitively- that AC had severe payload penalties trying the 74E across the Pacific, in many instances requiring an unscheduled fuel stop if the flight was full or severe payload restrictions on cargo in the back and passengers up front if they wanted to make HKG or NRT (especially the former) without a fuel stop. The overall operating economics of this having to take place routinely made operating the 74E very unpalatable for AC and this is right around the time they got the A340 online. Now you see the 74E's on primarily N. Atlantic routes and A340s over the Pacific. The A340 carries more belly cargo (and then some) coupled with passengers total -compared- to what the 74E could do.

I'm speaking of the 74E now, a different animal from the 744 passenger model.

From a former loadplanner's perspective (including a peckful of handson experience planning 747s, 707s, DC-8s, DC-10s...C-5's C-141s,..etc..etc...) combi aircraft like the 74E are -very tricky- to plan and extremely sensitive to CoG issues, moreso than passenger models because you round off pax weight around 160 lbs each. When you start talking of -several- 10000 lb. pallets of heavy cargo behind the wing, --behind the acft CoG--, you start getting into a juggling match of what you bump off to meet performance. This features prominently if you expect a lean fuel burn on a planned long distance flight. That extra weight back there with offset CoG means tradeoffs are coming. Combi's are a -great- concept, but not the most economically viable one these days. They depend greatly upon the distance, traffic carried, weight, etc..you are looking to reach with it. They tend to be more expensive to operate versus dedicated passenger configured equipment also.

MAC
ex-Cargo Dawg

As much as I would love to see them order from Boeing, why would they order the 717 over the A318 which would close up the whole Airbus short-haul package. They would save alot of money on parts, and training if they went for the A318.

CNBC, the issue is that the 717 is available sooner. AC has to get new aircraft in order to meet F28 retirement deadlines set out in it's new pilots contract, as the mainline will hand over CRJ's to the regionals, but it has to replace these aircraft in the main fleet before the CRJ's can go to the regionals.

The 717 is also cheaper to buy, and more economical on the shorter routes. The 318's are better for longer routes, but there's still routes like YYC-YVR that the 717's would be good for.

When will Air Canada tell thier future oreder? It would be nice to see some new Boeings in the fleet but I dont mind the Airbus planes at all. Boeing and Airbus make what ever works their is no problem with any of them at all.

I can see AC replacing the 737-200's with A319's over A318's. Also what will happen to the 747's? Will AC keep them for all the Asia routes and put the A340's on the Europe routes? I hope AC gets 777's wouyld be nice to see them in Canada.
YWG777

Actually, I think Deltaair may be referring to the anti-eastern sentiment felt by those west of Saskatchewan. A lot of people in this part of the country abhor the East even more than the U.S., especially in Alberta. Alberta is the only “have” province in the country and many people here resent the fact that they have to support the “have-nots”. There actually is a, albeit minor, separation movement. This involves Saskatchewan, Alberta and B.C. joining Washington, Oregon and Idaho to form their own little country. It’s not serious, obviously, but some people out here passionately believe they’d be better off this way. If you Torontonians got your heads out of your asses, maybe you’d see that Canada also exists outside your fair city.

Louis, it would be better to continue this topic in the non-aviation forum.