AA Drops DEL, BUR

LAXdude1023 · Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:05 pm

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 157):
SLC ? to what city? on what airline? The last time I checked there are ZERO.

DL flies there seasonally to NRT.

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 158):
AA @ ORD to Asia is barely viable.

Theres a shocker.

BoeingGuy · Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:09 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 155):
Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 157):
SLC ? to what city? on what airline? The last time I checked there are ZERO.

DL flies there seasonally to NRT.

Not anymore. They dropped it for this Summer.

SA7700 · Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:17 pm

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IrishAyes · Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:47 pm

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 149):
I guess in your mind GRU doesn't exist.

GRU is still a star alliance hub.

IrishAyes · Thu Jan 12, 2012 8:03 pm

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 151):

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 155):
Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 157):
SLC ? to what city? on what airline? The last time I checked there are ZERO.

DL flies there seasonally to NRT.

Not anymore. They dropped it for this Summer.

My bad. But we're discussing the nitty gritty here. The point is that traffic to Asia is NOT exclusive to the West Coast or NYC. Further, AA's struggle on their ORD-China flights have less to do with the lack of demand between Chicago and Asia and more to do with efficient resource planning.

Period.

coachclass · Fri Jan 13, 2012 4:36 am

Starting to get rid of the MD80's may be the primary reason since I think most if not all of AA's flights are with the mad dogs.

jfk777 · Fri Jan 13, 2012 12:22 pm

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 144):
ORD-LHR
ORD-PEK
ORD-PVG
NYC-LAX
NYC-SFO
NYC-LHR
MIA-EZE

NYC - LAX/SFO : solution on the horizon (use A32x)
ORD/JFK - LHR : solution is more BA-metal and less AA-metal

Can't speak for MIA-EZE, but maybe a RASM thing ? (can't run a super sized front cabin with nothing but eVIP upgrades)

OF all of AA's long haul routes Argentina is fairly close to the USA, its only 8 hoiurs from Miami. What does it cost to fuel up a 777 from MIA to EZE against ORD to India ? About half the cost or less since to EZE the plane does not carry all the fuel for the 8-14th hours of teh flight and the fuel to carry all that extra fuel. I bet a flight to EZE burns 40% of what the India flights burns.

EZE has to be the only long haul city in AA's system the where native airline is a joke. Looking at all the new airlines flying to EZE, Qatar and Emirates, show that a huge market exists there. Seeing how AA operated MD-11 from Miami to EZE before the 777, it has always been a big market for AA. AA's cost in EZE are huge with the 4 flights they have daily but they must have $400,000,000 million in revenue from there too. How else can AA justify using 8 777 or 767 daily for its 4 flights.

Nimish · Fri Jan 13, 2012 7:27 pm

Quoting Coal (Reply 113):

Interesting to note that SQ 15/16 (SIN-ICN-SFO) and SQ 1/2 (SIN-HKG-SFO) are chock full with Indians connecting from other SQ/AI flights from India. Both routings also have codeshares with AI.

India - US West coast has been a traditional winner on SQ - good fares, outstanding service, pleasant connections etc. These days though, it's becoming less used IMO, primarily due to the numerous other 1 stop options that are much quicker. Just for example - until a few years ago, BLR-SFO was either LH or SQ, now you have EK, CX, BA all offering much faster one stops than SQ's 2 stop routing.

mrskyguy · Fri Jan 13, 2012 7:42 pm

What do you think the odds are of AA returning to BUR like the other mainliners have done, but utilizing their regional brand American Eagle? As it stands, SkyWest, Mesa, and Horizon draw traffic for Alaska, US Airways, Delta, and United (though US Airways and Alaska do still have occasional mainline flights out of BUR).

BoeingGuy · Fri Jan 13, 2012 8:09 pm

Quoting mrskyguy (Reply 158):
though US Airways and Alaska do still have occasional mainline flights out of BUR).

All of AS's flights to SEA are mainline. They aren't "occasional".

FX1816 · Fri Jan 13, 2012 8:24 pm

Quoting mrskyguy (Reply 158):
(though US Airways and Alaska do still have occasional mainline flights out of BUR).

AWE does not run occasional mainline flights to BUR, they have 2 daily flights on mainline, AWE472 and I can't remember the other one right now but we definitely work them through our airspace.

FX1816

mrskyguy · Fri Jan 13, 2012 8:59 pm

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 159):
All of AS's flights to SEA are mainline. They aren't "occasional".

Quoting FX1816 (Reply 160):
AWE does not run occasional mainline flights to BUR, they have 2 daily flights on mainline, AWE472 and I can't remember the other one right now but we definitely work them through our airspace.

Poor choice of words on my part.. I recognize these are scheduled mainline flights. Perhaps "supplement" would have been a better choice of words..

..but to the actual question?

Quoting mrskyguy (Reply 158):
What do you think the odds are of AA returning to BUR like the other mainliners have done, but utilizing their regional brand American Eagle?

FX1816 · Fri Jan 13, 2012 9:10 pm

Quoting mrskyguy (Reply 161):
Poor choice of words on my part.. I recognize these are scheduled mainline flights. Perhaps "supplement" would have been a better choice of words..

..but to the actual question?

Quoting mrskyguy (Reply 158):What do you think the odds are of AA returning to BUR like the other mainliners have done, but utilizing their regional brand American Eagle?

I could see that happening but where would they come from? Would people really want to fly on an RJ from DFW-BUR? I personally wouldn't care but many people probably wouldn't want to. Right now I believe that the longest distance for an RJ into BUR is from DEN and SLC on SKW.

FX1816

laca773 · Fri Jan 13, 2012 9:19 pm

Quoting FX1816 (Reply 162):

I could see that happening but where would they come from? Would people really want to fly on an RJ from DFW-BUR? I personally wouldn't care but many people probably wouldn't want to. Right now I believe that the longest distance for an RJ into BUR is from DEN and SLC on SKW.

FX1816

I think AA is able to to fill the S80s they have been flying from BUR-DFW since the start. I have a feeling this has to do with the S80s being pulled from service, pilot retirements, and LAX being such a large station, it makes since for them to close BUR as it's only two flights and probably doesn't make them that much money.

Internationally speaking, how does AA's LAX-PVG flight do? I know the reduced the frequency to five weekly. Was this due to pilot retirements? Is this route high yielding for AA? I was wondering about this since United and China Eastern also fly this route.

mrskyguy · Sat Jan 14, 2012 4:19 am

Quoting FX1816 (Reply 162):
I could see that happening but where would they come from? Would people really want to fly on an RJ from DFW-BUR? I personally wouldn't care but many people probably wouldn't want to. Right now I believe that the longest distance for an RJ into BUR is from DEN and SLC on SKW.

That's a tough one. I'd do it, because for me it's insignificant. But I can see your point. Perhaps it could come from PHX or DEN, but neither of these represent major leapfrog points. Perhaps they could link it up with one of the restored ERJ routes that will replace the parked ATRs. I'd still see it doing better non-stop to DFW, like SkyWest does non-stop to Tulsa.

Beardown91737 · Sat Jan 14, 2012 8:35 am

Took a CRJ ride from DFW to ONT in 2005 or maybe 2004. BUR would only be about 10 minutes more. However DL does not fly that segment any more so it would be hard to say how that flight would do today.

Bobloblaw · Sat Jan 14, 2012 2:28 pm

Prediction:
All US/Canada based carriers will be forced to drop nonstop US-India service regardless of India's GDP and income growth. European carriers will struggle. Why?

Emirates, Ethiad and Qatar Airways are trashing the North America/Europe to India markets just like they trash the Australia-Europe market hurting Qantas. Low fares, good service and the intrigue and shopping opportunities of a stop in the UAE.

ripcordd · Sat Jan 14, 2012 2:34 pm

AA is looking to cut costs and BUR with just flights to DFW and being so close LAX it is a way to cut costs for the terminal gate fees etc and the employees. LAX can take all the extra passengers for no cost to the company

EricR · Sat Jan 14, 2012 3:25 pm

Quoting BobLoblaw (Reply 166):
Prediction:
All US/Canada based carriers will be forced to drop nonstop US-India service regardless of India's GDP and income growth. European carriers will struggle. Why?

Emirates, Ethiad and Qatar Airways are trashing the North America/Europe to India markets just like they trash the Australia-Europe market hurting Qantas. Low fares, good service and the intrigue and shopping opportunities of a stop in the UAE.

You can take that one step further and apply it to many international destinations. International carriers with lower cost structures (and thus lower fares) or airlines propped up by government backing will increasingly have an advantage over U.S. carriers over the course of time.

Quoting ripcordd (Reply 167):
AA is looking to cut costs and BUR with just flights to DFW and being so close LAX it is a way to cut costs for the terminal gate fees etc and the employees. LAX can take all the extra passengers for no cost to the company

Similar to OAK & PVD. So this trend continues and leads to the next question of which cities under this same scenario will be next (FLL?, PBI?, IAD?, HOU?)

ein105 · Sat Jan 14, 2012 4:46 pm

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 135):
Interesting, this was one of the big money-losing routes that analyst Bob McAdoo cited several months ago in his report, that drew so much criticism on this board, that AA should drop immediately to help their financial situation. A lot of people doubted the accuracy of his report and while clearly he was spot in with this route it doesn't mean that all of his routes are accurate but it sure gives his report a lot more credibility right now!

The other routes he cited as huge money losers that either needed to be dropped or capacity adjusted were:
ORD-LHR
ORD-PEK
ORD-PVG
NYC-LAX
NYC-SFO
NYC-LHR
MIA-EZE

NYC-LHR and ORD-LHR can be adjusted by working with BA; perhaps removing some of their own metal.

Can the ORD-China routes be operated from DFW or LAX? if China isn't working for them, they need to drop the service and route pax via JAL

pnqiad · Sat Jan 14, 2012 5:32 pm

Quoting EricR (Reply 168):
International carriers with lower cost structures (and thus lower fares) or airlines propped up by government backing will increasingly have an advantage over U.S. carriers over the course of time.

I would argue that fares are dictated by market than the cost structure - so if you can't bring cost structure in line to afford those fares - you won't survive.

Another big reason for markets moving away from US carriers is their nickel and diming and poor service compared to non-US carriers like QR, EK....

EricR · Sat Jan 14, 2012 5:48 pm

Quoting pnqiad (Reply 170):
I would argue that fares are dictated by market than the cost structure - so if you can't bring cost structure in line to afford those fares - you won't survive.

Another big reason for markets moving away from US carriers is their nickel and diming and poor service compared to non-US carriers like QR, EK....

I think the reason for their nickle and diming is because of their high cost structure. In other words, due to their high cost structure, they have no choice but reduce on board service and charge customers for every conceivable product/service in order to be profitable (or lose less money).

If QR or EK had the same cost structures as some US based carriers, I fully believe they would be reducing on board services to cut costs and charge for as many services as possible.

With regard to poor service, I agree with you. This is a shame. I think part of the reason is due to the cuts in pay/benefits that they have endured. These cuts have hurt employee morale and impacted customer service.

LAXintl · Sat Jan 14, 2012 7:33 pm

Regarding BUR, while the current post pilot retirement hickup schedule is 2x daily MD-80s, historically its been 3-4 and even up to 5 some summers, so there is plenty of nascent demand for eastward link out of BUR.

In regards to using a RJ, with the demand is there - (looking at BUR stats AA managed almost 85% for the first 10-months of 2011) the CASM cost of the RJ on as 1250mi segment is going to be worse then the MD-80 it would be replacing, so I seriously doubt AA would ever consider bringing the route back with large RJs unless the market revenue picture becomes very different and better allowing RJ ops if ever.

Bobloblaw · Sat Jan 14, 2012 9:51 pm

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 135):
The other routes he cited as huge money losers that either needed to be dropped or capacity adjusted were:
ORD-LHR
ORD-PEK
ORD-PVG
NYC-LAX
NYC-SFO
NYC-LHR
MIA-EZE

Bob McAdoo is like private eye Gene Parmasean. He's far from the best. I believe ORD-DEL/PEK/PVG are giant money losers, but no way is MIA-EZE. I also think ORD-LHR hold's its own. No one makes money on JFK-LHR and blaqme the 762s for JFK-LAX/SFO.

jfk777 · Sun Jan 15, 2012 12:35 am

Quoting BobLoblaw (Reply 173):
No one makes money on JFK-LHR

How can an airline not make money flying from JFK to LHR ? Its a license to print money, its the route BA flew Concordes on at extremely high prices. Its short for the type of planes used, its only 3500 miles, half of a flight to Asia but the J and F fares are similar. BA flies 7 744 daily on it, all High J class with 70 seats each. Its a route which recently Continental paid $200,000,000 USD for 4 slots at LHR to fly there from Newark and Houston.

LHR from New York is the biggest international route in the world. Delta had to wait 17 years since it took over Pan AM's ops at JFK to fly to London from JFK. IF AA doesn't make money to LHR they shold have never purchased TWA's LHR slots but judging all teh things Crandall did he won much more then he lost and LHR is a winner.

Bobloblaw · Sun Jan 15, 2012 1:33 am

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 174):
How can an airline not make money flying from JFK to LHR ?

I might be able to see BA making money as I bet they get far more than "fair" share of premium traffic. But there is a lot of competition and capacity and fares can be low.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 174):

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 174):
IF AA doesn't make money to LHR they shold have never purchased TWA's LHR slots but judging all teh things Crandall did he won much more then he lost and LHR is a winner.

It is about leverage in the NYC market. Serve the top destinations from NYC: BOS, DCA, ORD, DFW, MIA, LAX, SFO, LHR, CDG, NRT, GRU etc and win corporate contracts.

mikey72 · Sun Jan 15, 2012 11:21 am

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 174):
BA flies 7 744 daily on it, all High J class with 70 seats each. Its a route which recently Continental paid $200,000,000 USD for 4 slots at LHR to fly there from Newark and Houston.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 174):
LHR from New York is the biggest international route in the world.

You are flogging a dead horse on A.net with that one !

STT757 · Sun Jan 15, 2012 1:19 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 174):
Its a license to print money

It was when only a couple airlines had the right to fly it, now it's the Trans-Atlantic version of NY-Florida.

jfk777 · Sun Jan 15, 2012 2:15 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 177):
It was when only a couple airlines had the right to fly it, now it's the Trans-Atlantic version of NY-Florida.

Well not quite. For all the "open Skies" that happened in 2008 there are still only two US and 2 UK airlines from JFK to LHR, DL, AA, BA, VA, and UA, BA and VA from EWR. Air India is not "dumping" cheap fairs any more since they fly to India nonstop from New York. Not every airline has the same J class revenue potential but AA does have the JV with BA where its gets level of profits BA gets on AA flights.

STT757 · Sun Jan 15, 2012 2:28 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 178):
Well not quite. For all the "open Skies" that happened in 2008 there are still only two US and 2 UK airlines from JFK to LHR, DL, AA, BA, VA, and UA, BA and VA from EWR. Air India is not "dumping" cheap fairs any more since they fly to India nonstop from New York

Yeah but CO/UA are flying 5x daily from EWR and DL is flying 3-4x daily from JFK. Much more frequency than UA at JFK or UA+AA at EWR.

mikey72 · Sun Jan 15, 2012 2:29 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 177):
It was when only a couple airlines had the right to fly it, now it's the Trans-Atlantic version of NY-Florida.

You're missing the point totally. Since when was Florida one of the financial capital's of the world ? It's not the route itself it's the deep pockets of the thousands that fly the route in the premium cabins every week.

To that sort of passenger nothing appeals more than frequency and flexibility so it doesn't really matter how many airlines fly the route they will never match BA/AA in that regard.

Alot of the passengers who fly the route are British wealthy types that work in the city of London, they're back and forth across the pond like they're on a piece of elastic. They fly BA for the frequency, product, loyalty schemes etc

[Edited 2012-01-15 07:00:52]

jfk777 · Sun Jan 15, 2012 2:57 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 179):
Yeah but CO/UA are flying 5x daily from EWR and DL is flying 3-4x daily from JFK. Much more frequency than UA at JFK or UA+AA at EWR.

UA is flying from EWR with 4 757 & 1 777. Those 757 only have 16 J class seats each. DL is flying 3 767 daily, not a huge amount of seats or frequency. AA, BA and VA are the big 3 airlines on the route.

STT757 · Sun Jan 15, 2012 3:02 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 181):
UA is flying from EWR with 4 757 & 1 777. Those 757 only have 16 J class seats each. DL is flying 3 767 daily, not a huge amount of seats or frequency. AA, BA and VA are the big 3 airlines on the route.

I'm demonstrating how much more service there is now than compared to 10 years ago.

UA had 2x JFK and 1 daily EWR-LHR

AA had 1 daily EWR-LHR and 5x daily JFK

Now there's CO/UA 5x daily EWR-LHR and DL 3x daily as well as AA's 4 (soon to be five) x daily JFK-LHR. It's doesn't matter how many seats are on each aircraft, overall there are more flights and more capacity from the NY area to LHR now then there was 10 years ago.

mikey72 · Sun Jan 15, 2012 3:20 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 182):
I'm demonstrating how much more service there is now than compared to 10 years ago.

UA had 2x JFK and 1 daily EWR-LHR

AA had 1 daily EWR-LHR and 5x daily JFK

Now there's CO/UA 5x daily EWR-LHR and DL 3x daily as well as AA's 4 (soon to be five) x daily JFK-LHR. It's doesn't matter how many seats are on each aircraft, overall there are more flights and more capacity from the NY area to LHR now then there was 10 years ago.

Don't you think it's all relative ?

For instance BA offers 64 J seats daily from LCY alone ! They were'nt doing that 10 years ago. BA/AA will always have the advantage because London is BA's home. New developments also mean they will be able to expand on this with better connections etc

ein105 · Sun Jan 15, 2012 4:50 pm

Quoting EricR (Reply 171):
With regard to poor service, I agree with you. This is a shame. I think part of the reason is due to the cuts in pay/benefits that they have endured. These cuts have hurt employee morale and impacted customer service.

EK, QR and EY don't pay well, and are not known to be good to work for though? The difference is that labour laws in the Middle East are practically non existent and the airlines can demand superior service from staff! People flock to work there for the experience of life in Dubai etc

LAXtoATL · Sun Jan 15, 2012 5:15 pm

Quoting ein105 (Reply 184):
EK, QR and EY don't pay well

Is this accurate? I was under the impression that while labor laws in the middle east are definitely more employer friendlier that EK & EY actually paid a very competitive wage. Someone please elaborate.

DTWLAX · Sun Jan 15, 2012 5:47 pm

Quoting BobLoblaw (Reply 175):
How can an airline not make money flying from JFK to LHR ?

I might be able to see BA making money as I bet they get far more than "fair" share of premium traffic. But there is a lot of competition and capacity and fares can be low.

It does not matter if BA is making money.... AA gets a share of what BA is making without even flying the route as much as BA does

Bobloblaw · Mon Jan 16, 2012 12:42 am

The big question someone needs to ask Bob McAdoo is how is it that AA loses money on MIA-EZE but yet DL and UA dont lose money on ATL and IAD to EZE? Or better why isnt DFW-EZE also a big loser?

McAdoo was the founder of Vanguard and one of the founders of PoeplExpress.

SA7700 · Mon Jan 16, 2012 1:59 am

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