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Pihero
Posts: 4318
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 5:11 am

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:29 pm

Quoting varig md-11 (Reply 142):

Ah oui? and the cost of keeping pilots and FA type ratings for such a ridiculous subfleet?

What you call ridiculous subfleet is crewed by 105 captains and some 200 first officers... 305 pilots needing an average of 16 hours of simulator ( some 20 + for the F/Os )... some 6000 hours per year.
For pilots - and for the CCs - whatever the type, their rating is transparent. I don't see where you're leading this.
By the same token, AF, nor LH should have bought the 380 as there are just going to be "ridiculous subfleets"... Right ?..

Quoting varig md-11 (Reply 142):
what about JNB

It's been proven, by me and by Zeke (find the thread) that-, yes, the 340 would lift a better load than a 777 out of JNB.
The use of the 777s there came from a major fleet re-deployment.

Quoting varig md-11 (Reply 142):
for our West Indies the 747 was the workhorse for years because it had 4 blowers and no other plane could do the job..

You are wrong : the advantage of the 747 was only on St Maartens- Juliana. On the rest of the archipelago, the T7 is the best airplane around.

Quoting varig md-11 (Reply 142):
I created many scenes at NCE already,

Believe me, I believe you ! The problem is : who was the provocateur ? Somehow, I don't see them being all that systematically insulting.

Quoting varig md-11 (Reply 142):
I am really sorry you refuse obstinément to look at it and try to figure out what can be done to counter then!

When are you going to understand that we are a lot more concerned about setting-up a nice ops rather than "countering" U2 ? The servicers are different, the cost structures are different and the average pax population is also different. We're keeping a very good eye on what they're doing and if anything, they haven't fully realised the prospective market here.
On the other hand, their serving our hub makes them more dangerous than FR, but in most cases, their slots don't match our time table.I wonder why   
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panamair
Posts: 4422
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2001 2:24 am

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:35 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 116):
On the other hand, I certainly do not think that we need any lessons - or criticisms - from the airlines across the pond and their apologists.

Really? Because right now, most of the airlines across the pond are the ones reporting large profits despite high fuel prices and economic uncertainty....and those numbers are REAL, not borne out of some anti-French rhetoric....
 
petertenthije
Posts: 4179
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RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:45 pm

Here's the press statement by Air France. There is a link at the KLM website to what I assume to be the same release, but the link is dead.

http://corporate.airfrance.com/en/pr...tine-a-restaurer-sa-rentabilite-1/

* the Group will only increase capacity by a little over 5% on a cumulative basis.
* a shrinkage of the Group’s fleet with an attendant reduction in the investment program
* adjust its medium-term fleet plan combining, amongst others, the deferral of aircraft deliveries and the non-exercise of options
* a freeze on general pay rises in 2012 and 2013 at AF and a policy of wage moderation at KLM.
* Additional productivity measures, a further reduction in overhead costs and network adaptations
* the passenger business will be the primary focus with the restructuring of the short- and medium-haul operations
* cargo and maintenance will also have to redefine their conditions for profitability
* better utilization rate of aircraft and assets;
* significantly improved productivity in all employee categories;
* redefinition of certain activities, potentially leading to more extensive outsourcing in some areas.
The first thing to remember is always treat your kite like you treat your woman.
Get inside her five times a day and take her to heaven and back!
Lord Flashheart, 1989
 
Pihero
Posts: 4318
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 5:11 am

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:47 pm

Quoting panamair (Reply 151):
Really? Because right now, most of the airlines across the pond are the ones reporting large profits despite high fuel prices and economic uncertainty.

like AA in C11
or DL....etc...just out of C11
As for United... ask the pilots where their pension has gone to.
Real meaningful examples, yes indeed !
Contrail designer
 
Pihero
Posts: 4318
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 5:11 am

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:48 pm

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 147):
Hey Pihero...this is what the British and French can do.....

Yes, when they work together.
Contrail designer
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 18636
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:51 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 148):
which makes me believe you lot would rather stay on very comfy AF / French

Show me one instance where I've said anything anti-French.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 148):
I can dish it too.

All you've dished so far is "anti French, French bias, French bashing, anti French, French bias, French bashing, anti French, French bias, French bashing, anti French, French bias, French bashing, anti French, French bias, French bashing," and repeat

Quoting mozart (Reply 149):
"In these conditions, the group anticipates a negative operating result for the quarter October-December 2011 and, consequently, for the calendar year 2011"

More French bashing right, Pihero? You better show AF they don't have a clue what they're talking about!

Quoting Pihero (Reply 148):
There are a full load of numbers I provided.

You provided the numbers for one quarter, which happens to be the peak quarter of the year. The group anticipates a loss for the fiscal year, and KL is allegedly the money maker. Now what?

Quoting mozart (Reply 149):
You're not telling the entire story: first planes will be delivered in 2016. So, yes, some payment has to be made now, but planes aren^t paid in full now

AA just ordered hundreds of planes. Anyone can order planes if they can find a sucker to finance them.

Quoting mozart (Reply 149):
Thus: the performance is worsening, not improving.

...and it is for most EU carriers, so again, no reason for anyone to take it personally, unless you're an executive or union leader.
I don't take responsibility at all
 
Pihero
Posts: 4318
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 5:11 am

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:53 pm

MOzart,
Thank you for your post. Just what I wanted.
I will first have a look at your sources, then I'll address your arguments.
I'm on sim tomorrow with a bunch of new very young people. Gonna be fun.
I'll pm you with my new phone and ok for that meal.

Soon.

Cheers.
Contrail designer
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 18636
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:55 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 153):
like AA in C11
or DL....etc...just out of C11

They didn't have ability to turn to the government for support, like AF . It's not perfect, but neither is state ownership.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 154):
Yes, when they work together.

How much did AF pay for Concorde?
I don't take responsibility at all
 
Pihero
Posts: 4318
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 5:11 am

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Thu Jan 12, 2012 8:02 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 155):

You provided the numbers for one quarter, which happens to be the peak quarter of the year. The group anticipates a loss for the fiscal year, and KL is allegedly the money maker. Now what?

which shows that you didn't check the link as the full year-sofar was there on that report. Sometimes one shoudn't trust the writings of someone as reliable as Mozart without reading what he meant-.
Caught you !

and of course, all your post is a "reprise " of someone else's.
Can't you seek your own sources and think by yourself?

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 155):
All you've dished so far is "anti French, French bias, French bashing, anti French, French bias, French bashing, anti French, French bias, French bashing, anti French, French bias, French bashing, anti French, French bias, French bashing," and repeat

I really begin to wonder about the quality of elementary school teachers in america, if their pupils are unable to unrestand a given text.
If that is the on ly thiing you found in my posts... wow ! that is really impressive.
May be I should write and draw cartoons.

[Edited 2012-01-12 12:25:53]
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mikey72
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RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Thu Jan 12, 2012 8:30 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 154):
Yes, when they work together.

We are always working together.

It just doesn't appear so at times....besides..the British and French ''LOVE'' to hate each other.

Any other way just wouldn't be any fun !!

The problem is we are too alike.

Same goes for Germany...i'm not a fan of the EU (at the moment) but we need to stick together.

What any of that has to do with AF I really don't know I just felt like saying it. I don't like bad feeling.

ENTENTE CORDIALE (1904)
Flying is like sex - I've never had all I wanted but occasionally I've had all I can stand.
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 18636
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RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Thu Jan 12, 2012 8:31 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 158):
Caught you !

Yeah you got me!
http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...n-shrinks-fleet-freezes-wages.html

"Air France-KLM’s earnings before interest and tax dropped 31 percent in the three months to Sept. 31, hurt by high fuel costs and waning growth, prompting the company to predict a full-year loss after previously suggesting it would break even. "


"Gourgeon’s position was undermined after a declining profit outlook prompted the carrier’s stock to drop 71 percent last year, the worst performance in the region, with the six-member Bloomberg EMEA Airlines Index falling 39 percent.

Air France-KLM suffered operating losses in two of the past three fiscal years following 11 years of profitability
"
More French bashing..  http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/309b5...e4-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1jHGb2lpw

Quoting Pihero (Reply 158):
If that is the on ly thiing you found in my posts...
Quoting Pihero (Reply 148):
AF / French ( chose ) hate
Quoting Pihero (Reply 140):
the usual AirFrance-bashing
Quoting Pihero (Reply 116):
...just smelly additions to the usual bull
Quoting Pihero (Reply 111):
PREJUDICE against anything French, NO MATTER WHAT
Quoting Pihero (Reply 98):
your personal agenda against Air france, ADP, France in general ... etc...?

And that's just the last quarter of the thread   
I don't take responsibility at all
 
Pihero
Posts: 4318
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 5:11 am

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Thu Jan 12, 2012 8:33 pm

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 159):
What any of that has to do with AF I really don't know I just felt like saying it. I don't like bad feeling.

You're a better man than I am.
No bad feelings from my part any longer.
And thanks for the lesson.
Cheers.
Contrail designer
 
Pihero
Posts: 4318
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 5:11 am

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Thu Jan 12, 2012 8:58 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 160):
Yeah you got me!

See ! You can do it !
  

after 159 posts, which means one shoudn't despair. One should always believe in fellow human's inherent goodness...

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 160):
Air France-KLM’s earnings before interest and tax dropped 31 percent in the three months to Sept. 31, hurt by high fuel costs and waning growth, prompting the company to predict a full-year loss after previously suggesting it would break even. "

That's the main news... to which you should have added the fact that this will be the first year when AF/KL accounts would happen on a normal calendar year (January to December ).
That means that the remnants of last year's results, i.e the Jan 1st to Mar 31st will be included, and they will bring these results down to a deficit. That has been said and published since October last year.
Had you followed the AF share prices as I did ( I own by rights a good number of them ), you'd have discovered that they took a beating after the BEA reports on AF447, which I found fracking unfair as it was the airline that insisted on continuing the search and financed a great deal of it.
All in all I'd tend to agree with the Bloom report and I find hard to read in the whole article the death premises of AF.
Contrarily to some people on this forum.
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panamair
Posts: 4422
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2001 2:24 am

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Thu Jan 12, 2012 9:16 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 153):
like AA in C11

Hence I said, "most" of the airlines....

Quoting Pihero (Reply 153):
or DL....etc...just out of C11

Just? Delta exited Ch.11 spring 2007 - that's almost five years ago now....
 
UALWN
Posts: 2186
Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2009 3:27 pm

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Thu Jan 12, 2012 9:32 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 157):
They didn't have ability to turn to the government for support, like AF .

What makes you think that AF has that ability? It doesn't. On the other hand, the US airlines did have that ability after 9/11. And the US car industry more recently...

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 157):
It's not perfect, but neither is state ownership.

Which ended in Europe about 15 years ago.
AT7/111/146/Avro/CRJ/CR9/EMB/ERJ/E75/F50/100/L15/DC9/D10/M8X/717/727/737/747/757/767/777/787/AB6/310/32X/330/340/350/380
 
panamair
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RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Thu Jan 12, 2012 9:45 pm

Quoting UALWN (Reply 164):
What makes you think that AF has that ability? It doesn't.

Let's be real. If AF were really on death's doorstep tomorrow, the French government WILL find loopholes in EU subsidy laws to save it. Count on it. AF is THE flag carrier, it's silly to think the government will let chaos envelop the country's transportation system and national carrier....
 
Kaiarahi
Posts: 1810
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2009 6:55 pm

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Thu Jan 12, 2012 9:59 pm

Quoting panamair (Reply 165):
Let's be real. If AF were really on death's doorstep tomorrow, the French government WILL find loopholes in EU subsidy laws to save it. Count on it. AF is THE flag carrier, it's silly to think the government will let chaos envelop the country's transportation system and national carrier....

Just like the Swiss government stepped in to save SR and the Belgian government stepped in to save SN - right? What is your speculative "certainty" based on?
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 18636
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:16 pm

Quoting UALWN (Reply 164):
What makes you think that AF has that ability?

They had that ability well into the 90s, two decades after the US airline industry was thrown into full deregulation.

Quoting UALWN (Reply 164):
On the other hand, the US airlines did have that ability after 9/11. And the US car industry more recently...

All of which were paid back in full and with interest. In fact UA and HP's requests for a bailout were denied. Oh, and it was 9-frickin'-11.

Quoting UALWN (Reply 164):
Which ended in Europe about 15 years ago.

Exactly, almost 30 years after US carriers were unleashed from regulation. EU carriers are just going through the same things US carriers went through 10-20 years ago, but on a much more accelerated pace. I don't know why anyone is surprised or why anyone takes it so personally.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 162):
That means that the remnants of last year's results, i.e the Jan 1st to Mar 31st will be included, and they will bring these results down to a deficit.

So the AF leadership is panicking under false premises? Have you told the French-bashing AF executives that they have it all wrong, that's it's just a question of restating the calendar year and ill effects of #447? Or maybe, *just* maybe, there is a bigger structural issue here?
I don't take responsibility at all
 
tripple7
Posts: 510
Joined: Sun Aug 22, 1999 8:53 pm

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:19 pm

I wonder what the impact of the reorganisation will be on Cityjet, Transavia, and Martinair. Does anyone ave more information on this?
 
panamair
Posts: 4422
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2001 2:24 am

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:23 pm

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 166):
Just like the Swiss government stepped in to save SR and the Belgian government stepped in to save SN - right? What is your speculative "certainty" based on?

In the case of Swissair, the Swiss government did keep Swissair alive from October 2001 until the "replacement national carrier" Swiss International could be officially launched on April 1 2002.

Governments may not care what the name on the side of the plane is, but they sure do care that there is a national carrier, or that there isn't significant chaos or social unrest or negative economic impact as a result of a large iconic corporation (which AF is, in France) shutting down. In France, there is really no viable alternative to Air France currently; if AF were to stop operations tomorrow and face liquidation, the government will step in to do something to mitigate transportation chaos and eventually ensure that there is a national airline.

[Edited 2012-01-12 14:27:47]
 
AirGAbon
Posts: 676
Joined: Fri Dec 19, 2003 10:37 pm

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:48 pm

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 166):
Just like the Swiss government stepped in to save SR and the Belgian government stepped in to save SN - right? What is your speculative "certainty" based on?

Well said! You are 100% correct. The same would happen to AF which IS NOT A PUBLIC COMPANY.

Too many people here think that AF is still a State owned company and that France has no private companies!!!

You would be surprised to see that many French companies are among the world largest and in their sectors: Carrefour, Total, Danone, Michelin, Lafarge, LVMH, Vivendi, Schlumberger, Technip, Total, L'Oreal, Sanofi-Aventis etc.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 167):
I don't know why anyone is surprised or why anyone takes it so personally.

Because, being French, I am tired of all those stereotypes!! It's like France is Soviet Union, and AF is Aeroflot in the 80s!
 
mozart
Posts: 2176
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 12:21 am

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:51 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 156):
I will first have a look at your sources, then I'll address your arguments.

Sure. My sources are the following:

- for Air France profitability numbers and the statement about their outlook: AF statement of November 9, on their corporate website: http://www.airfranceklm.com/fileadmi.../5908FisrtHalfResults_2011_ENG.pdf
- for their absolute stock market performance: UBS Research, but you could also use data from e.g. Boursorama
- for the fact that they underperformed their peers: again, using UBS Research to plot the three groups on a graph. Additionally, Lufthansa financial statement for the end of the September quarter
- for Lufthansa share of premium traffic: Lufthansa financial statement
- for Air France share of premium traffic: no current data, but research done some time ago showed that number. My very strong hypothesis is that it hasn^t increased, but I am happy to be proven wrong if numbers show to be different
- discussion about productivity: simple airline economics
- discussion about service quality of US carriers' business class: opinions from numerous travel websites plus airline website which show new lie-flat seats for instance at United

Looking forward to discussing more. Tomorrow that is   Bonne nuit.
 
Nomik
Topic Author
Posts: 52
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RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:56 pm

Quoting panamair (Reply 169):
Governments may not care what the name on the side of the plane is

They most certainly do.
The French Government sunk IM and IJ so as to make AF the only interdomestic carrier.
U2 were only allowed slots after they signed an huge contract to become an all-Airbus fleet.

Quoting panamair (Reply 169):
In the case of Swissair, the Swiss government did keep Swissair alive from October 2001 until the "replacement national carrier" Swiss International could be officially launched on April 1 2002.

SR was not kept afloat by CH government.
The CH government acted as broker and cajoled CS and UBS to grant massive bridging loans to keep SR flying.
The deal fell through because UBS CEO Ospel decided to pull the plug but when UBS went bust a few years ago,the CH Government wasted CHF50BN of taxpayers' money to bail it out.
Let me tell you:I would rather have had the CH Government bail out SR and let sink UBS.

I emailed my OP to an UBS banker and his immediate reaction was that AF will suffer SR's "Grounding"!
 
panamair
Posts: 4422
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2001 2:24 am

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Thu Jan 12, 2012 11:08 pm

Quoting Nomik (Reply 172):
The CH government acted as broker and cajoled CS and UBS to grant massive bridging loans to keep SR flying.

So, yes, the government had to step in to intervene to keep Swissair flying. CS and UBS by themselves would never have kept SR flying out of the goodness of their hearts. If not for government help, SR would not have been flying between October 2001 and April 2002, and CH would have been without a national carrier during that period.

Quoting Nomik (Reply 172):
They most certainly do.
The French Government sunk IM and IJ so as to make AF the only interdomestic carrier.

So you agree with my point that the government would likely intervene to keep AF alive if necessary....
 
Pihero
Posts: 4318
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 5:11 am

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Thu Jan 12, 2012 11:09 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 167):

So the AF leadership is panicking under false premises? Have you told the French-bashing AF executives that they have it all wrong, that's it's just a question of restating the calendar year and ill effects of #447? Or maybe, *just* maybe, there is a bigger structural issue here?

Wher did you see any panic : the fourth qurter results were forecasted in September ( which was the cause of the stock markets, which generally show a cowardly attitude.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 167):
Or maybe, *just* maybe, there is a bigger structural issue here?

Didn't wait for you to take measures... and apparently they do not include structural issues : Workforce reduction : ongoing, already 10% fewer ground personnel . Hiring freeze, which means another reduction for retiring employees. There are several plans for saving money (3 currently going on ) and the province base are bringing better results than expected ( the expectation was for some 15% cost savings and 20% higher productivity).
The results so far were - rounded - ops benefits at 260 M for the first six months and 400 M for the third quarter. .. let's see the fourth quarter results ( on Feb 9th).
Could well be a loss, as it was forecasted... but where is the death toll of the airline ?
I find also funny that NOT ONE SOUL acknowledged the fact that AF made quite a hefty profit on the 2010-11 year... May be due to selective memory.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 167):
All of which were paid back in full and with interest. In fact UA and HP's requests for a bailout were denied. Oh, and it was 9-frickin'-11.

AF did the same after 1998 on the so-called subsidies... Fact that nobody mentioned.
As for the events of Sep 2001, it certainly wasn't an act of God but a major security cock-up by the US airline industry at large, which brings their safety stats down quite a bit. We have no fear of comparing our safety results with theirs, even if they're not mentioned by the same people who'd like to give us a lesson.
Contrail designer
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 18636
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Thu Jan 12, 2012 11:10 pm

Quoting Nomik (Reply 172):
I emailed my OP to an UBS banker and his immediate reaction was that AF will suffer SR's "Grounding"!

I don't believe that for a second--AF is fundamentally much stronger than SR was.

Quoting AirGabon (Reply 170):
Because, being French, I am tired of all those stereotypes!! It's like France is Soviet Union, and AF is Aeroflot in the 80s!

Then it's gonna be a long decade for you as all EU carriers restructure, or don't, and get into even more trouble!
I don't take responsibility at all
 
Pihero
Posts: 4318
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 5:11 am

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Thu Jan 12, 2012 11:19 pm

Quoting Nomik (Reply 172):
The French Government sunk IM and IJ so as to make AF the only interdomestic carrier.

the epitome of bullshit on France government conspiracy...
An what does IM, air barbados to do with everything ?

Quoting Nomik (Reply 172):
U2 were only allowed slots after they signed an huge contract to become an all-Airbus fleet.

Same opinion

Quoting Nomik (Reply 172):
The CH government acted as broker and cajoled CS and UBS to grant massive bridging loans to keep SR flying.

what does Continental Micronesia to do with Swissair?
So, the Swiss federal government intervened, right, and who guaranteed these loans ?

Quoting Nomik (Reply 172):

I emailed my OP to an UBS banker and his immediate reaction was that AF will suffer SR's "Grounding"!

Fortunately, I've taken my shres of UBS out last year... with that level of analysis, no wonder...
Contrail designer
 
Viscount724
Posts: 19316
Joined: Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:32 pm

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Thu Jan 12, 2012 11:26 pm

Quoting UALWN (Reply 164):
Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 157):
It's not perfect, but neither is state ownership.

Which ended in Europe about 15 years ago.

Not entirely. TP is still 100% state-owned as is Czech Airlines. Malev was re-nationalized in 2010 and is now 95% state-owned. Finnair is majority-state owned (about 56%) as is Aeroflot (51%). SAS is 50% state-owned. Turkish Airlines is 49% state-owned.

Since this thread is about AF-KL, the French government still has something like a 15% stake in AF-KL. There are probably a few others that still have some degree of state ownership.
 
petertenthije
Posts: 4179
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2001 10:00 pm

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Thu Jan 12, 2012 11:38 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 176):
what does Continental Micronesia to do with Swissair?

Nomik means Credit Suisse.
The first thing to remember is always treat your kite like you treat your woman.
Get inside her five times a day and take her to heaven and back!
Lord Flashheart, 1989
 
airproxx
Posts: 417
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2008 7:07 pm

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Fri Jan 13, 2012 12:38 am

Check this link out (sorry, only in French, but a good translation tool like google should help!)
This only concerns AF, but deserves some attention;

http://thewingman.blog.lemonde.fr/20...atron-aux-commandes-nouvel-espoir/

This is by far the best press release i've read about AF, an as a company insider, I can confirm that this says loud and clear what everyone inside thinks and whispers...

I cannot pick up any part of the release to give you an idea, as the article covers a whole bunch of irregularities that makes AF so uncomfortable today.

So please be patient enough to translate it, you'll understand a lot of things...

Cheers,

Dave
If you can meet with triumph and disaster, and treat those two impostors just the same
 
MD-90
Posts: 7836
Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2000 12:45 pm

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:35 am

So if AF isn't doing as well financially as KLM, why did they just announce that AF wages will be frozen while KLM wages will be reduced, not merely frozen?
 
jetlag73
Posts: 74
Joined: Wed Sep 28, 2011 8:20 am

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:39 am

Quoting Pihero (Reply 140):
Had you provided anything else but the usual AirFrance-bashing drivel one finds on this forum, we might have gone a lot further somewhere.


Pierre,
I just gave my views as a paying passenger.

If you read my posts, I said Y is good (apart from 10 across 777s). Where's the bashing here ?
I also said AF is better than US carriers (apart for some C seats). Where's the bashing here ?
I also said CDG is a mess, but that is ADP. Where's the bashing ?
I also said C is below industry standards (Europe/Asia/ME carriers that is). Wait....Oh, sorry, I'm not allowed to say this...it's AF bashing ! Apologies.

At the end of the day, I vote with my wallet as many other passengers do.

I might be wrong, and I hope I'm wrong, as AF remains my national airline.
I wish they did well, believe me.
Well, only time will tell then. I'm sure AF will open up and react soon. I hope so at least.

No hard feelings Pierre, I have no hidden agenda against anyone

Cheers

Enzo

[Edited 2012-01-12 17:59:04]

[Edited 2012-01-12 18:00:05]
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 18636
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RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Fri Jan 13, 2012 4:48 am

Quoting airproxx (Reply 179):
This is by far the best press release i've read about AF, an as a company insider, I can confirm that this says loud and clear what everyone inside thinks and whispers...

I'm not sure I agree with the condemnation of the hub structure--that's one of AF's strengths and the reason it is able to drive such a revenue premium (relatively speaking). If it starts going point-to-point, as the article suggests, then it puts itself directly into competition with the LCCs and that's tough to make work unless AF is the lowest unit cost producer, which it obviously is not. Would La Navette ever work out of CDG? Combining the two ORY/CDG networks at one airport would drive strong efficiencies and revenue while reducing costs (assuming the labor/capital can be moved or offloaded), and assuming locals would still use a CDG based shuttle network? Running two hubs in the same city is generally suboptimal and tough.
I don't take responsibility at all
 
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shamrock604
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RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Fri Jan 13, 2012 8:31 am

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 182):
I'm not sure I agree with the condemnation of the hub structure--that's one of AF's strengths and the reason it is able to drive such a revenue premium (relatively speaking). If it starts going point-to-point, as the article suggests, then it puts itself directly into competition with the LCCs and that's tough to make work unless AF is the lowest unit cost producer, which it obviously is not. Would La Navette ever work out of CDG? Combining the two ORY/CDG networks at one airport would drive strong efficiencies and revenue while reducing costs (assuming the labor/capital can be moved or offloaded), and assuming locals would still use a CDG based shuttle network? Running two hubs in the same city is generally suboptimal and tough.

I dont think the author is attacking the hub structure per se - merely suggesting that greater efficiencies need to be sought in scheduling and also proffering that maybe fastest connection time, or fastest elapsed journey time are not the only drivers of passenger choice, and that price matters more.

The author may be onto something - one of the big issues passengers have at CDG is the tight connections and having to run everywhere, which leaves the impression that CDG is a nightmare.

Essentially - the author is suggesting an AA style "de-hubbing" at CDG to spread the traffic load more evenly and cut aircraft ground time.
 
mikey72
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RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Fri Jan 13, 2012 10:03 am

Quoting Pihero (Reply 174):
As for the events of Sep 2001, it certainly wasn't an act of God but a major security cock-up by the US airline industry at large, which brings their safety stats down quite a bit.

  

That could have happened to any of us.

I'm sure there wasn't an airline in the world that didn't have a SOCK tied around the flight-deck door handle (or a similar contraption) to stop it banging to and fro pre 9/11. (That's just one indicator of the dream we were all living in)

We shoud just be thankful that day wasn't more of a catastrophe than it was ! (If that is possible)
Flying is like sex - I've never had all I wanted but occasionally I've had all I can stand.
 
draigonair
Posts: 624
Joined: Tue Oct 10, 2000 8:37 pm

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Fri Jan 13, 2012 12:32 pm

Quoting MD-90 (Reply 180):

So if AF isn't doing as well financially as KLM, why did they just announce that AF wages will be frozen while KLM wages will be reduced, not merely frozen?

Doesn't say anywhere that KLM wages will be reduced. There is still room for a slight wage increase but in return the workers are asked to work harder and be more flexible. The idea being that workers can expect to do different jobs than what they were hired to do, therefore there will be less need for KLM to hire part-time workers (like they did in 2009, i.e. a pilot working 1 day at the gate).

(sourece http://www.telegraaf.nl/dft/bedrijve...es_in_kosten__.html?sn=nieuws_dft)

cheers
cheers
 
76er
Posts: 707
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RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:02 pm

Something went wrong with the translation on the wages subject.

From what I've read in the dutch media, AF wages will be 'frozen', while at KL one speaks of 'moderation', or 'matigen' in dutch. Meaning something like salary increases will be minimal, but probably less than the inflation rate.

For FA's and pilots also increases in productivity are planned. That mainly boiles down to fewer days off after a longhaul flight. KL will be aiming to bring this in line with e.g. BA and LH.
 
Nomik
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RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Fri Jan 13, 2012 2:20 pm

From what I have read from posters:The most salient point of all is indeed that AF must force ADP entirely renovate CDG and ORY into showcase European airport and to really make it feel like a real hub i.e. Chez AF!
The entire flight experience begins as soon as you walk into an airport.
CDG and ORY are akin to a Stalinist theme park.
 
UALWN
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RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Fri Jan 13, 2012 2:25 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 167):
Exactly, almost 30 years after US carriers were unleashed from regulation.

But, according to you, regulation is still a factor in the curent AA's woes.... The fact is that since 1997 (14 years ago!) deregulation has hit the EU airlines. FR, U2 and other have grown massively, and whatever had to happen, it has already happened. I don't understand your "brace for the effects of deregulation." It has already happened, and the effects are there for anybody to see.

Quoting panamair (Reply 169):
In the case of Swissair, the Swiss government did keep Swissair alive from October 2001 until the "replacement national carrier" Swiss International could be officially launched on April 1 2002.
Governments may not care what the name on the side of the plane is, but they sure do care that there is a national carrier,

Well, apparently, the Swiss government let the "replacement national carrier" fall in the hands of a foreign entity (LH). The Dutch government did the same with KL. And the Spanish government with IB.

Quoting Nomik (Reply 172):
U2 were only allowed slots after they signed an huge contract to become an all-Airbus fleet.

This is blatantly false.
AT7/111/146/Avro/CRJ/CR9/EMB/ERJ/E75/F50/100/L15/DC9/D10/M8X/717/727/737/747/757/767/777/787/AB6/310/32X/330/340/350/380
 
Nomik
Topic Author
Posts: 52
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RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Fri Jan 13, 2012 2:32 pm

U2 slots in exchange for Airbus deal:
EasyJet Awarded 7,300 Paris Slots (by Britair Mar 31 2003 in Civil Aviation)
 
Amsterdam
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Joined: Thu Mar 17, 2011 12:52 am

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Fri Jan 13, 2012 2:41 pm

So they plan to stop their investments? Hahaha

Investing is the best thing they can do in a time like this, and stopping that doesn't reduce their structural costs at all.
So instead of making major stuctural changes, they want to stop investing.
(KLM's philosofy is to invest during bad times if possible.)

You won't solve anything with plans like this.
And nothing will change if the AF-workers, all of the them, don't change their mentality.

They first of all have a wrong mentality to stay succesful in this business.
 
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shamrock604
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RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Fri Jan 13, 2012 2:49 pm

Quoting Amsterdam (Reply 190):
So they plan to stop their investments? Hahaha

They plan to curtail investments (not stop them) EXCEPT in areas related to safety and customer service.
 
Nomik
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RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Fri Jan 13, 2012 3:05 pm

French Minister hints that AF will be ditched if need be:
http://videos.tf1.fr/infos/2012/les-...ortelles-rappelle-nkm-6934254.html
 
UALWN
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Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2009 3:27 pm

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Fri Jan 13, 2012 3:06 pm

Quoting Nomik (Reply 189):

U2 slots in exchange for Airbus deal:
EasyJet Awarded 7,300 Paris Slots (by Britair Mar 31 2003 in Civil Aviation)

Very interesting. Now an a.net thread is a proof? I see in it an article in the Seattle Times (surprise, surprise), and then statements like:

"Aeris hs been given about the same amount of slot as Esay jet and does not operate any Airbus aircraft (B767/737), Virgin and Aigle Azur as well. "

"Slots in the EU are allocated under a system prescribed by an EU regulation. The slots are allocated by an independent non-governmental body which can be, depending on the country in question, a foundation, a corporation or an individual."

And then the usual EU vs. US flamewars...
AT7/111/146/Avro/CRJ/CR9/EMB/ERJ/E75/F50/100/L15/DC9/D10/M8X/717/727/737/747/757/767/777/787/AB6/310/32X/330/340/350/380
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 18636
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Fri Jan 13, 2012 3:12 pm

Quoting shamrock604 (Reply 183):
The author may be onto something - one of the big issues passengers have at CDG is the tight connections and having to run everywhere, which leaves the impression that CDG is a nightmare.

I must be the one person on the planet that likes CDG, but I understand what the article is getting at. They could bring back the STR flight, for instance, earlier, resulting in longer connects and more aircraft time to fly something else--a NCE turn perhaps, or whatever. Do the ORY and CDG narrowbody fleets mix?

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 184):
That could have happened to any of us.

And by sheer luck, it hasn't, even though Richard Reid originated in CDG and Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, originated in AMS.

Quoting UALWN (Reply 188):
But, according to you, regulation is still a factor in the curent AA's woes....

It absolutely is; you don't think AF (or any EU carrier) still carries loads of state supported baggage in the form of rules, compensation, and practices?

Quoting UALWN (Reply 188):
The fact is that since 1997 (14 years ago!) deregulation has hit the EU airlines. FR, U2 and other have grown massively, and whatever had to happen, it has already happened. I don't understand your "brace for the effects of deregulation." It has already happened, and the effects are there for anybody to see.

The EU is facing the same effects but at a much more accelerated pace. The LCCs have loads of room to grow still--they still are growing in the US--WN is the size of FR and U2 combined. This will drive the legacy hubbed carriers into more competition with each other, as well as with their lower cost brethren across the pond, as they try to find profitable territory not covered by homegrown LCCs, which brings them right back to reality that either unit revenues need to be raised (tough) or costs cut.
I don't take responsibility at all
 
mozart
Posts: 2176
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 12:21 am

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Fri Jan 13, 2012 5:08 pm

Quoting Nomik (Reply 192):
French Minister hints that AF will be ditched if need be:
http://videos.tf1.fr/infos/2012/les-....html

I just watched that video (teased by what you wrote) but absolutely *nowhere* can I hear even the slightest hint of her saying that AF will be ditched. All she says is that she believes that the plan is necessary because AF has been losing money, that the airline industry is very competitive and that people shouldn't be "comforted" by the strong brand and legacy that is AF.

Would there be a trace of sensationalism in your post(s)?

Freudian slip I guess that she only talks about "Air France", and never about "Air France KLM". But then, she is a French minister.
 
varig md-11
Posts: 1114
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RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Fri Jan 13, 2012 5:35 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 150):
What you call ridiculous subfleet is crewed by 105 captains and some 200 first officers... 305 pilots needing an average of 16 hours of simulator ( some 20 + for the F/Os )... some 6000 hours per year.

Thanks for biting to the hook: don't you think if you get rid of the 747 and standardize to 777 all these costs can be lowered? you bleed money....

Quoting Pihero (Reply 150):
It's been proven, by me and by Zeke (find the thread) that-, yes, the 340 would lift a better load than a 777 out of JNB.
The use of the 777s there came from a major fleet re-deployment.

Again you sort of prove MY point: fine, a quad is better than the 777 on JNB. But the fact is you did perfectly well with a 777 so that is possible

Quoting Pihero (Reply 150):
Believe me, I believe you ! The problem is : who was the provocateur ? Somehow, I don't see them being all that systematically insulting.

Typical AF non-customer oriented remark...
If you want to know the most detestable incident I had is when I tried to check in 2 (black) children as UM for a NCE-CDG-COO I paid more than 1000€ each. I said "bonjour" to your dear female check in colleague, and she yelled immediately at us "move back I suffocate!", an AF supervisor came immediately and told me we have to step back as her colleague cannot breathe if we come too close to the counter.... I am the provocateur?
As I explained the superviseur I spent more than 2000€ and people tell me they can't breathe if I come to check in 2 children?
Another time on la navette the automat gives me a blank boarding pass: I kindly ask one at the desk with Bonjour and SVP, the stupid guy DRAWS one on the blank paper and tells me to go....???? He then makes a comment that since I used the automat in the first place, I shouldn't come to him, I am the provocateur?
List is Long but that's NCE AF pre-retirement home too
Go ahead, what can I say....

Quoting Pihero (Reply 150):
When are you going to understand that we are a lot more concerned about setting-up a nice ops rather than "countering" U2 ? The servicers are different, the cost structures are different and the average pax population is also different. We're keeping a very good eye on what they're doing and if anything, they haven't fully realised the prospective market here.
On the other hand, their serving our hub makes them more dangerous than FR, but in most cases, their slots don't match our time table.I wonder why

We disagree competely and won't understand each other. You typically insist in saying your customers are so different (above?) U2 customers. Dont take offence as I don't want to insult you but it sounds so AF auto-persuasion.
In the same time have what answer or proposal for reducing the 700 million € deficit generated by your short-medium haul operations in 2011?
I don't rejoice about it contrarily to what you might believe
AF TW AA NW DL UA CO BA U2 TP UX LH SK AZ MP KL SN VY HV LS SS TK SQ PC RG IW SE LI TX PY
 
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shamrock604
Posts: 2198
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RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Fri Jan 13, 2012 5:41 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 194):
I must be the one person on the planet that likes CDG, but I understand what the article is getting at.

I like 2E and 2F, and S3 is great. There are some positive changes, and hopefully S4 addresses some more issues.
 
Nomik
Topic Author
Posts: 52
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 8:00 am

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Fri Jan 13, 2012 8:36 pm

A strong opinion on what AF misses in its restructuring plan:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalk...oids-the-dead-obvious-in-new-plan/
 
Pihero
Posts: 4318
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 5:11 am

RE: AF/ KL In Serious Financial Trouble

Fri Jan 13, 2012 10:07 pm

Quoting shamrock604 (Reply 183):

Essentially - the author is suggesting an AA style "de-hubbing" at CDG to spread the traffic load more evenly and cut aircraft ground time.

You're essentially correct.
Unfortunately, the premises are completely wrong : our salaries are based on flying hours, not on duty times.
That single flaw int that article puts most of his demonstration on cost comparisons and the flaws of the hub concept completely askew... and...
When we need quick turn-arounds, believe me, we can do them ( see what's achieved on the shuttles ).
And then, the idea of a government conspiracy... sorry, another paper to the waste bin.

Quoting varig md-11 (Reply 196):

Thanks for biting to the hook: don't you think if you get rid of the 747 and standardize to 777 all these costs can be lowered? you bleed money....

Ridiculous : the crew costs are exactly the same, the difference on operating costs could be for a volume effect on spares... but on the other hand, the maintenance people are past high point in the learning curve for the older aircraft, which is also completely amortized... Would you really bet on the overall costs ?..
Why don't you understand that the T7 is not the panacea you think it is and in quite a few cases, it runs second to planes you don't expect there. Your hook is made of candy, I'm afraid.
Somehow, you're also proving my point : you only see what you want to see and your prejudice ( here AF management is made of morons who have no idea on airplane economics) is quite blinding.

Quoting varig md-11 (Reply 196):
Again you sort of prove MY point: fine, a quad is better than the 777 on JNB. But the fact is you did perfectly well with a 777 so that is possible

You are mixing two different things :
1/- a 343 is better than a T7 on hot and high airports and there is no argument ... it's a fact.
2/- when that sort of performance is not really needed in times of reduced traffic loads that can fit a T7, by all means, use a T7 and put the 340 on African fields where its performance are needed.

Quoting varig md-11 (Reply 196):
Typical AF non-customer oriented remark...

...and typical response from someone who hasn't been there... When I did a stint at the hub, it was very interesting to find that there were a very few types of passengers who'd fill up the lists of complaints and customer-related incidents... the professional victims ... those who ordered but don't get ( systematically)... those who throw a hissy fit 'cause they weren't upgraded... those who'd argue for twenty kilos of extra luggage.... I had become quite cynical about the honesty of some people...so, yes, I will defend anybody who has valid reasons to complain, but when I get hold of a pax file which shows (exact figure on a real event) 47 instances (in the space of six years)... please don't take me for a fool.

Quoting varig md-11 (Reply 196):
You typically insist in saying your customers are so different (above?) U2 customers. D

See ? Much easier to distrust your adversary than to try and understand what he means. No. Ours and U2 clientele are different because our customers don't in general stop at ORY... they go on to somewhere else. U2 clients are the typical O&D population... They did pick up quite a lot of our traffic (business people, for instance ), but they've come back because the slots are way better and the fares not that different.
Let's see what happens with lower ops costs and higher crew productivity.

Back to the original subject, ATWonline published the news to-day :
"By Cathy Buyck | January 13, 2012

Air France (AF) KLM Group on Thursday revealed its three-year "transformation plan" to bring the company back to profitability by cutting costs immediately by 1 billion euros ($1.27 billion) and rapidly reducing debt by 2 billion to 4.5 billion by the end of 2014.

The group said it will increase capacity by a little over 5% on a cumulative basis.

At AF, the plan includes freezing pay raises in 2012 and 2013. At KLM, plans include moderating wages, freezing new hires, implementing additional productivity measures, reducing overhead costs and making changes to the network. Negotiations with social partners are on-going.

The plan, which was initially outlined in November, builds on three priorities: restoring competitiveness through cost-cutting; restructuring the short- and medium-haul operations; and rapidly reducing debt (ATW Daily News, Nov. 11, 2011).

The company disclosed that in 2011 its short- and medium-haul network losses were around 700 million euros. The long-haul operations, also subject to increasing competition, cannot alone offset these losses, AF KLM said.

The company wants to restore its medium-haul business to breakeven by 2014 through a better utilization rate of aircraft and assets. It also wants to " improve productivity in all employee categories and extensively outsource some activities". It did not provide more detailed information but stressed its short- and medium-haul network remains "indispensable" to the group's development.

The quasi-stable capacity growth between 2012 and 2014, affecting both passenger and cargo operations, will lead to a reduction of its fleet and, consequently, its investment program, from more than 6 billion between 2009-2011 to below 5 billion over the next three years. Aircraft deliveries will be deferred and options will not be exercised without detailing which orders will be affected, it said. The investment reduction will not affect ongoing operational safety and customer service programs.

Thursday's statement did not mention layoff plans, although it is widely expected that job cuts, mainly at AF, will be announced after the upcoming French presidential elections.

For the six months ended Sept. 30, 2011, the group posted a net loss of 183 million, reversed from a 1.03 billion net profit in the year-ago period when earnings benefitted from a 1.03 billion gain from the sale of part of its holding in Amadeus.
"
I should add that the fleet reductions will come from the postponement of the deloveries of :
-3 320s from 2013 to2015
-1 773 from 2015 to 2016
-2 380s from 2014 to 2016,
and for the cancellations of 2 773 options.

So where is the so-called panic ? The plan has been known for more than two months.

On the other hand, nobody, but nobody talks about LH as everything they touch turn to gold... or is it really :

- The sale of BMI to the IAG group for " a loss of 154 million euros for the first nine months of 2011 ( comparable to AF report, then ) due to rising fuel costs and social unrest in Northern Africa and Middle East "... (That seems to be ringing a familiar bell, doesn't it ? )

-The complete disparition of LH Italia which was supposed to give AFKLAZ a run for its money (!)

-the 20% reduction in personel costs in Berlin ( nice way of saying "we're laying off one in five of you lot !)

-The "restructuration" at Brussels Airlines which lost 80 million euros in 2011 due to rising fuel costs and political and social instability in Western Africa, especially in Ivory Coast where they were very strong ( It really seems to be ringing a familiar bell ! ) That restructuration will be very painful according to some union papers...

- The retirement of all 50 seat modules with Cityline, Eurowings... with hundreds of layoffs...

Better to holler the demise of Air France, it's more fun, I guess.

[Edited 2012-01-13 14:31:44]
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