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LAXDESI
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Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Tue Jan 17, 2012 6:02 pm

As per FG, Ethiad has cancelled six A350-1000 from its total order of 25.
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...first-to-cancel-a350-1000s-366997/

Quote:
Etihad Airways has cancelled six Airbus A350-1000s, the first carrier to have cut its backlog for the type since the aircraft was redesigned last year.

Airbus had a backlog of 75 A350-1000s but its latest order and delivery figures show Etihad's backlog of 25 has been cut to 19.

While Etihad has not commented on the A350-1000 redesign, a source close to the carrier said it was not content with the changes made to the twinjet, echoing the feelings expressed by Emirates and Qatar Airways.

[Edited 2012-01-17 10:02:55]
 
roseflyer
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Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Tue Jan 17, 2012 6:36 pm

The A350-1000 is a popular discussion topic as it comes closest to capacity of the popular 777-300. However, traditionally the same sized airplane does not maintain popularity for more than 5-10 years. The market gets saturated in that capacity and airlines look for smaller or larger. I think the A350-900 is targeted perfectly and that is where the orders are going. The -1000 is competing in a category that is saturated by the 777-300ER and its long backlog. The 777-200 is still the most common 777, but new production has drastically slowed. I think with time the market will pick up this segment as 777s age and the A350-900 is perfectly suited for it. Furthermore, it is likely the best optimization of the airframe. The longest stretches often find problems with MTOW from various sources (wing loading, rotation angle, gear loading, engine thrust, etc), which can have detrimental affects to overall efficiency, which is why the largest derivative is rarely the highest sold model. The A350-900 looks like it will be a very strong seller and popular airplane, but the -1000 does not look that way yet. Etihad is the only airline that has ordered the -1000, but not the -900.

As for this order, it is hard to know why they are canceling these planes. Is it because of capacity forecasts indicating that the size is not needed, or is the airline unhappy with the redesign that Airbus did? Other customers commented that they do not like the redesigns and the configuration of the airplane. It looks like Airbus has a problem with the -1000 in that existing customers are not happy with its latest configuration and it has not sold well to new customers. I would not be surprised if there is another redesign.

Also, this cancellation also appears interesting because it is an A350 customer converting to the 787. Etihad ordered 10 787-9s a month ago and cancels 6 A350-1000s. I don't want to read more into it than that at risk of creating an A vs B war as this could just be an airline just deciding that they want smaller airplanes even though flight global is indicating that Etihad is not happy with the redesign. http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...first-to-cancel-a350-1000s-366997/

[Edited 2012-01-17 10:50:49]
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OldAeroGuy
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Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Tue Jan 17, 2012 8:19 pm

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 1):
The longest stretches often find problems with MTOW from various sources (wing loading, rotation angle, gear loading, engine thrust, etc), which can have detrimental affects to overall efficiency, which is why the largest derivative is rarely the highest sold model.

But the 7773ER is the most ordered version of the 777.
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ferpe
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Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Tue Jan 17, 2012 8:23 pm

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 1):
Etihad ordered 10 787-9s a month ago and cancels 6 A350-1000s

Etihad has been cherry picking in the 787 (40 -9) and 350 (25 -1000) range IMO with the 350-1000 coming in late to replace 346 and 777 frames. The 350-1000 moving out 2 years has helped no-one with their fleet planning, this is the most probable dissatisfaction re the -1000 for customers who already had ordered it. Why go down 6 frames now when there is another 5 years before you get the first?? Anyones guess, could be arms-twisting like JL says.
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fpetrutiu
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Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Tue Jan 17, 2012 8:23 pm

Interesting, Quatar to follow? Wonder if we'll see more defections from the A350-1000 for the new 777 that is now in the pipeline.
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ferpe
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Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Tue Jan 17, 2012 8:52 pm

Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 4):
Interesting, Quatar to follow? Wonder if we'll see more defections from the A350-1000 for the new 777 that is now in the pipeline.

With Quatar we can expect anything but smooth sailing    , I don't expect them to cancel any -1000 for a 777-X which is nor defined nor decide nor launched.

Quatar has a lot of 350 production positions on order, we now from Zeke that most 350 contracts should allow the customer to change between models late in the game. So if our favorite negotiator thinks the commercial airline market has been a bit quiet since Dubai air-show he can create some fireworks by publicly cancelling all or a few 350-1000 with much ado.

He then has 4 years to change his mind should he find he needs a few -1000 anyway, who knows he might even squeeze out a fringe or two in the process (like he did at the Dubai show to get to pole position on the 320neo    ).

If EK cancels I will take more notice.

[Edited 2012-01-17 12:53:40]
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Stitch
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Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Tue Jan 17, 2012 8:52 pm

Boeing recorded eight UFO 777-300ER orders in November...   
 
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zeke
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Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Tue Jan 17, 2012 9:00 pm

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 1):
The market gets saturated in that capacity and airlines look for smaller or larger. I think the A350-900 is targeted perfectly and that is where the orders are going. The -1000 is competing in a category that is saturated by the 777-300ER and its long backlog.


If that was even remotely true, Boeing would not expect any more sales with the 77W, and the 777X is dead in the water. Neither of that is true, nor is the assertion that the market is saturated.

Thank you EY for the additional delivery slots, they are in high demand.
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ferpe
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Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Tue Jan 17, 2012 9:00 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 6):
Boeing recorded eight UFO 777-300ER orders in November...  

That would make a lot of sense, Ethiad being forced to extend the life of the 77W fleet because A suddenly moves the -1000 out 2 full years even before any delays has set on.

Ethiad does not have the same fleet engine commonality moaning reason as does QR and EK with engine swapping between types as they have only ordered one variant, the -1000 so they have less of a reason to be dissatisfied with the spec change.
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aerokiwi
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Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Tue Jan 17, 2012 9:28 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 7):
If that was even remotely true, Boeing would not expect any more sales with the 77W, and the 777X is dead in the water. Neither of that is true, nor is the assertion that the market is saturated.

Agreed. If anything the market has shifted there.

Quoting zeke (Reply 7):
Thank you EY for the additional delivery slots, they are in high demand.

That's as specious as when people welcomed 787 cancellations. No cancellation is good news.

Generally though, it seems odd to only cancel a third of your order. Perhaps it's just a shot across the bow to warn Airbus? Things must've broken down behind the scenes for that to happen.
 
roseflyer
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Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Tue Jan 17, 2012 9:38 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 7):
If that was even remotely true, Boeing would not expect any more sales with the 77W, and the 777X is dead in the water. Neither of that is true, nor is the assertion that the market is saturated.
.

I'm not proposing that the market will completely die, but in 10 years, more 777-200s will start getting replaced and the A350-900 is perfectly sized to take those replacement orders and my personal expectation is that market will heat up more than the 777-300 of A350-1000 will be down the road.
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kc135topboom
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Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Tue Jan 17, 2012 9:49 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 7):
Thank you EY for the additional delivery slots, they are in high demand.

Yeah, airlines are beating down John's door just to place their A-3510 order

Quoting aerokiwi (Reply 9):
Generally though, it seems odd to only cancel a third of your order. Perhaps it's just a shot across the bow to warn Airbus? Things must've broken down behind the scenes for that to happen.

That is what I was thinking too.
 
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Tugger
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Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Tue Jan 17, 2012 9:59 pm

Quoting ferpe (Reply 3):
Why go down 6 frames now when there is another 5 years before you get the first?? Anyones guess, could be arms-twisting like JL says.
Quoting aerokiwi (Reply 9):
Generally though, it seems odd to only cancel a third of your order. Perhaps it's just a shot across the bow to warn Airbus? Things must've broken down behind the scenes for that to happen.

My guess as to "why just six" is that it all has to do with when any purchase contract liabilities kick in or expire. "Now" was the best time for them to cancel these six, it exposed Ethiad to the best/lowest cost impact. Contract obligations drive most procurement timing decisions.

Tugg
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81819
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Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Tue Jan 17, 2012 10:00 pm

Quoting ferpe (Reply 3):
Quoting ferpe (Reply 3):
Quoting ferpe (Reply 8):

Sponsor Message:

Qatar have a fairly aggressive growth curve, so I'd suggest the cancellations relate to Qatar's requirements for aircraft in comparison to the original delivery schedule before the A350-1000 program was delayed two years.

For every aircraft Qatar orders to fill this void, the requirement for the A350-1000 reduces accordingly.

To cancel six aircraft out of a fleet of twenty five seems a bit odd. It could be an indicator Qatar are still committed to the A350-1000 program.
 
airbazar
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Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Tue Jan 17, 2012 10:05 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 11):
Yeah, airlines are beating down John's door just to place their A-3510 order

Won't they be produced in the same exact production line as the A358 and A359? I would think so.
 
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zeke
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Tue Jan 17, 2012 10:23 pm

Quoting aerokiwi (Reply 9):

That's as specious as when people welcomed 787 cancellations. No cancellation is good news.

Depends on how one looks at it.

Quoting aerokiwi (Reply 9):
Perhaps it's just a shot across the bow to warn Airbus? Things must've broken down behind the scenes for that to happen.

It may allow for the delivery schedule for later airframes to remain in place.

"Etihad Airways has a great deal of confidence in the A350 XWB program and we are delighted we have been able to retain attractive delivery positions for the (A350-)1000 derivative," an Etihad spokesman said.

from Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 11):

Yeah, airlines are beating down John's door just to place their A-3510 order

It is next to impossible to get an A350 of any sort of model before 2018....

"Chief operating officer for customers John Leahy said he was in discussions with three major airlines for the A350-1000, and added that the main problem was "getting them early delivery positions"."

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...first-to-cancel-a350-1000s-366997/
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roseflyer
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Tue Jan 17, 2012 10:24 pm

Quoting travelhound (Reply 13):

To cancel six aircraft out of a fleet of twenty five seems a bit odd. It could be an indicator Qatar are still committed to the A350-1000 program.

What does Qatar's opinion have to do with Etihad canceling orders?
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JayinKitsap
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Tue Jan 17, 2012 10:31 pm

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 10):
Quoting zeke (Reply 7):
If that was even remotely true, Boeing would not expect any more sales with the 77W, and the 777X is dead in the water. Neither of that is true, nor is the assertion that the market is saturated.
.

I'm not proposing that the market will completely die, but in 10 years, more 777-200s will start getting replaced and the A350-900 is perfectly sized to take those replacement orders and my personal expectation is that market will heat up more than the 777-300 of A350-1000 will be down the road.

I think that is what happened to the 757, it reached saturation with the more efficient 737/320 making the choice to abuse it to fit as too hard on the budget. It was only after the line closed that the TATL use increased the demand somewhat.

The 737-700 also probably reached saturation, it was 30% of the delivered 737 orders, now only 18% of the backlog. The -800 being the better choice once bigger is OK.

The 767 and the A300 probably also saturated their ideal spot in the market, and were less capable than other choices once off the ideal spot.
 
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Tue Jan 17, 2012 10:31 pm

Since EK and QR are the ones who hold over a quarter of firm A350 orders, I'll be impressed when either one starts cancelling orders. IF, and it's a big if, EK is upset over their A350 order, the first thing to go will be the options. For now, this is just an airline that has found that Boeing's current product is still better for their needs.
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81819
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Tue Jan 17, 2012 10:37 pm

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 16):

Oops..... wrong airline!
 
BMI727
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Tue Jan 17, 2012 10:43 pm

If I had to take a stab at it, I'd say that it is based on schedule with the A350 now pushed back.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 11):
Yeah, airlines are beating down John's door just to place their A-3510 order

Or the -900. But I think that if the -1000 is even close to what Airbus says it will be, they will have no problem selling them.
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ebbuk
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Tue Jan 17, 2012 10:49 pm

@Ferpe reply 5 and @Zeke reply 7

So if I connect the dots and read between the lines, some airlines or one in particular(!), is looking at the 1000 hence the "high demand" statement?

Interesting. So this one airline could finally order the 380 and top up its 350 order with 1000's? That would make my Olympic year! Zeke am I close??
 
ghifty
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Tue Jan 17, 2012 11:15 pm

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 2):
But the 7773ER is the most ordered version of the 777.

Which is why he said:

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 1):
is RARELY the highest sold model.
Fly Delta (Wid)Jets

Comments made here reflect only my personal opinions.
 
ferpe
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Tue Jan 17, 2012 11:18 pm

Quoting ebbuk (Reply 21):
one in particular(!), is looking at the 1000 hence the "high demand" statement?

Interesting. So this one airline could finally order the 380 and top up its 350 order with 1000's?

Zeke has said in about every discussion on the lack of orders for the 350-1000 that those who have ordered 350 frames can call of a -1000 variant when needed and available (at least this is in the CX contract it seems). It is therefore safe to assume that CX will be a user of A350-1000 frames without having to make any additional orders.
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zeke
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Tue Jan 17, 2012 11:40 pm

Quoting ferpe (Reply 23):
Zeke has said in about every discussion on the lack of orders for the 350-1000 that those who have ordered 350 frames can call of a -1000 variant when needed and available (at least this is in the CX contract it seems).

I have previously posted excerpts from actual contracts that has that paragraph in it, I think the US airways contract is on the internet if one were to google for it.

Quoting ferpe (Reply 23):
It is therefore safe to assume that CX will be a user of A350-1000 frames without having to make any additional orders.

Well I know the CX contract allows for the swapping of orders from the 900 to 800/1000, they are not free swaps, and they only start after a quantity of -900 frames have been delivered. Senior CX managers have been taking in public about the -1000, last year at the HKIA conference Ivan actually put up some sides on the -1000 performance, possible destinations, and the 4 class CX seat map for the airframe.
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PM
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Tue Jan 17, 2012 11:53 pm

Let's not forget that Etihad cancelled 4 787-9s early in 2011 and then ordered 10 later in the year. Who knows what's going on there?
 
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flylku
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Wed Jan 18, 2012 2:42 am

I think cancellations are a result of the understandable herd mentality in the airline industry. There comes a point in a program when the orders quicken and airlines figure they'd better lock slots in now or miss out. Later, as market conditions become a bit more clear they weigh the costs of cancelling and some pull the trigger and give up their slots. I suspect the airframers plan for a certain amount of order attrition.
...are we there yet?
 
neutronstar73
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Wed Jan 18, 2012 2:51 am

Quoting zeke (Reply 7):

Yeah, sure. Airlines are just beside themselves trying to get an A350-1000. The article says it plainly...they're not happy with what they see.
 
ferpe
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Wed Jan 18, 2012 6:23 am

Quoting neutronstar73 (Reply 27):
The article says it plainly...they're not happy with what they see.

I don't understand such comments, they have little factual content. Why would an airline (who did not buy the A/C and were forced to accept a 2 years delay and loose engine swap commonality) not be happy to haul a 77W payload for 20-25% less fuel????????

The major problem with the A350-1000 is that you get it in 2018, not 2012.
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PM
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Wed Jan 18, 2012 7:25 am

Quoting neutronstar73 (Reply 27):
The article says it plainly...they're not happy with what they see.

So why not cancel all 25?  
 
astuteman
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Wed Jan 18, 2012 7:49 am

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 10):
I'm not proposing that the market will completely die, but in 10 years, more 777-200s will start getting replaced and the A350-900 is perfectly sized to take those replacement orders

That pre-supposes of course that a "like-for-like" replacement is a given.
However, in 10 years time, I'd expect (barring calamities) that air travel volumes will be substantially higher than they are today. It's entirely likely that some 777-200 "replacements" could be in the 777-300 size range...

Quoting PM (Reply 25):
Let's not forget that Etihad cancelled 4 787-9s early in 2011 and then ordered 10 later in the year. Who knows what's going on there?

I suspect that this is a process of releasing financing to allow them to re-jig their acquisition programme, now that delays have occurred, to both the 787 and the A350

Quoting neutronstar73 (Reply 27):
The article says it plainly...they're not happy with what they see.

Bit ironic I guess that the two airlines that have expressed displeasure are hanging on firmly to ther orders AND options, whilst the one that has just cancelled has expressed "a great deal of confidence" in the product....

Quote:
"Etihad Airways has a great deal of confidence in the A350 XWB program and we are delighted we have been able to retain attractive delivery positions for the (A350-)1000 derivative," an Etihad spokesman said.

I suspect the REAL problem is not one of confidence in the product, but

Quoting ferpe (Reply 28):
The major problem with the A350-1000 is that you get it in 2018, not 2012

  

Rgds
 
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EPA001
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Wed Jan 18, 2012 8:03 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 30):
Quoting neutronstar73 (Reply 27):
The article says it plainly...they're not happy with what they see.

Bit ironic I guess that the two airlines that have expressed displeasure are hanging on firmly to ther orders AND options, whilst the one that has just cancelled has expressed "a great deal of confidence" in the product....

Quote:
"Etihad Airways has a great deal of confidence in the A350 XWB program and we are delighted we have been able to retain attractive delivery positions for the (A350-)1000 derivative," an Etihad spokesman said.

I suspect the REAL problem is not one of confidence in the product

Agreed. But then again some people will read totally different things out of this news. As usual.  .
 
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Ncfc99
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Wed Jan 18, 2012 8:26 am

Quoting neutronstar73 (Reply 27):
Quoting zeke (Reply 7):


Yeah, sure. Airlines are just beside themselves trying to get an A350-1000. The article says it plainly...they're not happy with what they see

I think the following qoutes below clearly show that a) there is demand but delivery slots are the problem and b)its not because they arn't happy with it. But don't let those quotes get in the way of a good predetermined negative slant.

Quoting zeke (Reply 15):
It is next to impossible to get an A350 of any sort of model before 2018....

"Chief operating officer for customers John Leahy said he was in discussions with three major airlines for the A350-1000, and added that the main problem was "getting them early delivery positions"."

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...6997/
Quoting astuteman (Reply 30):
Quote:
"Etihad Airways has a great deal of confidence in the A350 XWB program and we are delighted we have been able to retain attractive delivery positions for the (A350-)1000 derivative," an Etihad spokesman said.
 
CFBFrame
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Wed Jan 18, 2012 7:53 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 7):
Thank you EY for the additional delivery slots, they are in high demand.

From who, or whom, the 350-1000 is a dog and the airlines have run from it, long before it was made public here. Heck they ran from the first, "let them eat cake" A350! Airbus has not had a meaningful order for any A350 in some time!! I've told people on this site last year the -1000 had trouble because customers who were looking for fleet upgrades were passing on the program. All I heard was that they were buying the -900 with "options" to order any of the other configs. Okay, and there has not been a single order for the -1000. Now the order book stands at 19 -1000. Ouch, bet JL would give a few hundred of those A320 NEOs he sold in India for any A350 order!! The -800 has its challenges too. The -900 has legs because the 777-200 fleet will need replacements, and the -900 looks be an able body on paper. If the XWB program does nothing to address another variant this program will have to do all it can to get GE on board. The only other option is to come down and provide a -200/-300 for the A330 program. No wait, that's been done by the 787. QR and EK are driving this ship, and if they can't get Airbus to address their needs the price of the 777X will certainly be increasing over the next 24-36 months!!!

Airbus is at a crossroads in the widebody world. They have to do something fast because Boeing has an answer for replacement of 777s and they actually have two options, the 77X and upping the 787 to cover the -900.

So John, maybe you need to declare a sales target for the A350 family in addition to protect the A380 from that dog of a 747-8I. You already gave away the widebody freighter world to Boeing, why not give the passenger segment away too?
 
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zeke
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Wed Jan 18, 2012 8:19 pm

Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 33):
the 350-1000 is a dog and the airlines have run from it

I cannot think of one ....

Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 33):
Airbus has not had a meaningful order for any A350 in some time!!

True, they cannot find delivery slot that customers want ...

Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 33):
I've told people on this site last year the -1000 had trouble because customers who were looking for fleet upgrades were passing on the program.

I doubt any customer is looking at the -1000 for fleet upgrades today, it is still a long way off. As we get closer to EIS, orders will pickup. That is the main reason why the -900 order book is so strong, it is the first available variant.

Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 33):
Now the order book stands at 19 -1000.

Actually it is about 70, and the 77W only had around 80 when they had first flight, that was after the 777-200/200ER/300 were in service. The -1000 actually has more orders 4-5 years before its first flight than what the 77W had 2 years before first flight.
“Don't be a show-off. Never be too proud to turn back. There are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old, bold pilots.” E. Hamilton Lee, 1949
 
Scipio
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Wed Jan 18, 2012 8:35 pm

Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 33):
So John, maybe you need to declare a sales target for the A350 family

I think they hit their pre-EIS sales targets long ago. With the existing backlog, there is no urgency whatsoever to book additional sales.

Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 33):
Now the order book stands at 19 -1000.

69, to be precise.

Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 33):
If the XWB program does nothing to address another variant this program will have to do all it can to get GE on board.

Customers are not demanding GE engines. And contrary to what many predicted, even Air France has decided to sign up for RR-powered A350s.
 
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PM
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Thu Jan 19, 2012 12:39 am

Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 33):
Airbus has not had a meaningful order for any A350 in some time!!

I'd have thought an order in September for 25 firm and 35 options was bordering on the "meaningful"...

Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 33):
If the XWB program does nothing to address another variant this program will have to do all it can to get GE on board.

Why?  
Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 33):
Boeing has an answer for replacement of 777s and they actually have two options, the 77X and upping the 787 to cover the -900.

One wonders why Boeing feels the need to replace the 777 if the A350 is such a "dog"...   
 
CFBFrame
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Thu Jan 19, 2012 3:03 am

Quoting PM (Reply 36):
I'd have thought an order in September for 25 firm and 35 options was bordering on the "meaningful"...

The A350 program ended the year with a negative 31 orders in 2011, so your firm order and options did little to offset the cancellations. The -1000 has gone from 75 firm orders to 69, coming from two customers and none recently (like 2 years?)!!! The 777 collected 200 orders this year. The entire A350 program now has 555 total orders, of which it lost 41 in 2011. Compare that to the 777 200 orders over the same 12 month period. Please don't say it's due to the intro date, say it as John admits, the 777 is a tough nut to crack.

Quoting PM (Reply 36):
One wonders why Boeing feels the need to replace the 777 if the A350 is such a "dog"...

Because the space is a sweet spot and you have to make your money somewhere to cover all of the giveaways the industry is doing to sell narrowbodies (both manufacturers). Even John admits Boeing has this segment currently cornered and having two options certainly makes it tougher for Airbus to hit.

The 777 family has been gaining on itself over the years. As a result the bar that the A350 has to hit is far tougher than it was 3-4 years ago. The same thing is happening with the A330 and the 787. The incumbents are VERY good and having alternatives provides a better chance that one of the programs will hit the mark.
 
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PM
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Thu Jan 19, 2012 3:39 am

Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 37):
The A350 program ended the year with a negative 31 orders in 2011, so your firm order and options did little to offset the cancellations.

But it does give the lie to your earlier statement:

Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 33):
Airbus has not had a meaningful order for any A350 in some time!!
Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 37):
The -1000 has gone from 75 firm orders to 69, coming from two customers

Four, actually.

Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 37):
Compare that to the 777 200 orders over the same 12 month period.

So? In 2007 Airbus sold 290 A350s. Picking a single year (which happens to be the best ever for the 777) doesn't prove much.

Ultimately, your arguments is (a) the 777 is so much better than the A350 that the former is selling while the latter isn't, and (b) Boeing need to and will 'replace' the 777. Again, I wonder why Boeing need to replace the 777 if the A350 isn't a threat.
 
astuteman
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Thu Jan 19, 2012 5:39 am

Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 37):
The A350 program ended the year with a negative 31 orders in 2011, so your firm order and options did little to offset the cancellations.

???

Have you any idea how many cancellations the 787 has suffered over the last 3 years?

And does it mean jack? No.

So why are you so convinced that this years negative figure for the A350 means anything?

Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 37):
Compare that to the 777 200 orders over the same 12 month period. Please don't say it's due to the intro date,

PM doesn't need to say it.

EK themselves said it was the intro date of the A350 when they placed their order for 31% of the 773ER's that were ordered this year

Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 33):
Airbus is at a crossroads in the widebody world

  

Quoting PM (Reply 38):
I wonder why Boeing need to replace the 777 if the A350 isn't a threat.

    

Rgds
 
flood
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Thu Jan 19, 2012 5:55 am

Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 37):
The entire A350 program now has 555 total orders, of which it lost 41 in 2011.

To add a little perspective...

2011 accounted for a 5.3% reduction in Airbus' A350 orderbook.

2009 accounted for a 6.4% reduction in Boeing's 787 orderbook. Boeing netted -59 787s while Airbus netted 49 A330s. And yet the sky wasn't falling back then either.

Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 37):
The -1000 has gone from 75 firm orders to 69, coming from two customers and none recently (like 2 years?)!!!

Two years also happens to be the time frame in which Boeing consecutively netted negative orders for the entire 787 program.

Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 37):
Please don't say it's due to the intro date, say it as John admits, the 777 is a tough nut to crack.

Perhaps your quote is outdated, as Leahy said on Tuesday "the day we deliver the first A350-1000, the 777-300ER will become obsolete". Further, he credited the 777 for being the right aircraft "if you need lift in the long-range widebody market now".

It seems their nutcracker program is in full swing  
 
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EPA001
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Thu Jan 19, 2012 12:55 pm

Quoting flood (Reply 40):
It seems their nutcracker program is in full swing  

I would guess so.  . The B777 is still a phenomenal plane, but she will be crushed by the A350 when it hits the market. It is as simple as that though some seem to believe that the latest technology in the world available will not be able to produce a better plane then the almost 20 year old (base line) B777.   Unbelievable in my opinion.

And even Boeing does not believe that. Hence why the B777-X program seems to picking up speed quite rapidly.   .
 
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Stitch
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Thu Jan 19, 2012 1:07 pm

We all should remember that payload advantages only offset fuel burn disadvantages for the A330-200 and not the 777-300ER.  

So an A330-200HGW can use it's extra payload to make it more competitive against the 787-8, but the 777-300ER cannot use it's extra payload to make it more competitive against the A350-1000.


As to Etihad's recent move, it does not strike me as a very stern warning to Airbus or a very strong repudiation of the A350-1000. As such, I find myself in agreement with those that believe it is just the airline exercising some capital re-alignment in uncertain times.
 
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RayChuang
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Thu Jan 19, 2012 1:08 pm

I personally think that Airbus being unable to meet its promises on the A350-1000 is turning off a LOT of potential customers for this model of the A350.

Besides, with the 777-300ER already reaching 7,900 nautical miles still air range, why bother with the A350-1000? And that's not including the proposed 777-9X variant....
 
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EPA001
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Thu Jan 19, 2012 1:26 pm

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 43):

I personally think that Airbus being unable to meet its promises on the A350-1000 is turning off a LOT of potential customers for this model of the A350.

You may think what you want, but imho the opposite is the case. Hence why Boeing really needs the B777-X to remain competitive in the top end of this market.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 42):
So an A330-200HGW can use it's extra payload to make it more competitive against the 787-8, but the 777-300ER cannot use it's extra payload to make it more competitive against the A350-1000.

Which many conveniently seem to leave out of the discussion on the A35J here.
 
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Ncfc99
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Thu Jan 19, 2012 1:38 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 42):
We all should remember that payload advantages only offset fuel burn disadvantages for the A330-200 and not the 777-300ER.

So an A330-200HGW can use it's extra payload to make it more competitive against the 787-8, but the 777-300ER cannot use it's extra payload to make it more competitive against the A350-1000.

The 330 and 777 can use the extra payload to offset the fuel burn, but they must go out at LF above 90% or more to make that extra payload capability pay off. I a real world senario, how often does that happen? (genuine question, I have no idea)

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 43):
Besides, with the 777-300ER already reaching 7,900 nautical miles still air range, why bother with the A350-1000? And that's not including the proposed 777-9X variant....

To save about 20% fuel costs. In the other thread about the 777X, general wisdom seems to show the new version of the 777 will strugle to match the 35J, with possibly a 5-10% fuel burn disadvantage. It seems it will be capable of carrying more payload a bit further, but that extra payload has got to be filled to realise this advantage and, as I've asked above, how often does that happen? Then there is the question of cargo density, the 77X probably won't have enough volume to use its full MSP. It seems like the 77W v 346 but in reverse, the plane with the extra payload capability won't sell anywhere near as many frames as the plane which beats it by 5-10% on fuel burn.

Of course all the above is up for change and debate, cos if A make a mess of the 35J fuel burn or the 77X comes in 5% better than expected(as the 77W did), the entire picture will change again, but I guess we'll have fun debating it to death on here till we know for sure.
 
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zeke
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Thu Jan 19, 2012 1:39 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 42):

So an A330-200HGW can use it's extra payload to make it more competitive against the 787-8, but the 777-300ER cannot use it's extra payload to make it more competitive against the A350-1000.

Most people are smart enough to know that we are looking at different parts of the range payload curve in the two comparisons, one is a MZFW limited, the other is MTOW limited.
“Don't be a show-off. Never be too proud to turn back. There are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old, bold pilots.” E. Hamilton Lee, 1949
 
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EPA001
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Thu Jan 19, 2012 1:46 pm

Quoting ncfc99 (Reply 45):
It seems it will be capable of carrying more payload a bit further, but that extra payload has got to be filled to realise this advantage and, as I've asked above, how often does that happen?

Not even that. Above 6,000 NM the payload advantage shifts in favor of the A35J by quite a big factor which becomes bigger the further the distance of a route is upped. See the respective recent threads where that advantage is clearly shown.

In this comparison I am talking about the latest specs of a B77W, not a B777-X since all we can do on that plane is guess. Way too early in the program to draw final conclusions. But she will not have it easy on the market. The ease the B77W enjoyed was a once in lifetime situation for Boeing (with the much better then anticipated performance and the ETOPS regulations).

[Edited 2012-01-19 05:49:41]
 
roseflyer
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Thu Jan 19, 2012 3:31 pm

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 44):
Quoting RayChuang (Reply 43):

I personally think that Airbus being unable to meet its promises on the A350-1000 is turning off a LOT of potential customers for this model of the A350.

You may think what you want, but imho the opposite is the case. Hence why Boeing really needs the B777-X to remain competitive in the top end of this market.

I know you state it is your humble opinion, but I really don't see how the opposite could be the case. 2 of the 4 customers have publicly stated that they are not happy with the -1000 design configuration. A third is canceling orders. How could that not turn a lot of customers off the -1000 and towards the -900.

I think Boeing is trying to exploit the fact that the -1000 is struggling to meet customer requirements which is why they see an opportunity to revamp the 777 to keep some of the large twin market.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
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EPA001
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RE: Etihad Cancels Six A350-1000

Thu Jan 19, 2012 3:54 pm

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 48):
A third is canceling orders.

Only 6 out of 25 just as they cancelled part of their B787's. Only to reorder them at a later stage. More then likely this is an identical move to free up some capital.

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 48):
2 of the 4 customers have publicly stated that they are not happy with the -1000 design configuration.

When they ordered it, they ordered a very promising airplane fitting just underneath the B77W's these customers also have with anticipated much, much lower operating costs. Now with the design changes (Airbus has stated specifically that other highly potential customers wanted these changes as well) the A35J has grown into more then a match for the B77W, hence the rapid Boeing response to it. The price for it is that it might lose a tad efficiency for the capacity/capabilities gain. The original customers already have the B77W in their fleets, and still quite some numbers of them on order. Basically they will have two planes in identical categories where they thought their line-up would be a bit more structured. And where the one clearly outperformes the other by a long shot costs-wise well before the B77W's are written off or to be sold again. That is where it is really hurting EK and QR in the future.  .

Btw, these two customers ordered first, then also started pushing for changes (increased capabilities). And when the changes were done they were initially not happy with them. (EK wanted even (much) more. More then even the B777-9X as speculated today, could ever give them. Those comments are for 99% politically motivated in my opinion.

And since the program is so far away, many jump to conclusions too soon. The A35J has more orders now then the B77W had 2 years in production. And we all know how Boeing turned that around once the real performance exceeded everybody's (including themselves) expectations. Normally customers will order a plane like the A35J (first free slots at the earliest in late 2018 or early 2019) in 2015-2017. That is the normal window for orders to come in. And we are a long way off that mark but still many people (not you  ) have already dismissed the A35J. Well, I know for sure that they are wrong by a long way!  .

Just my   .

[Edited 2012-01-19 07:59:00]

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