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DeltaMD90
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sat Jan 28, 2012 6:01 pm

Since we're all spouting random scenarios, maybe DL is asking to merge with AA (get denied), merge with US (get denied), well how about AS they ask? "Well, AS is way smaller than AA and US, ok you can do it DL!"   
 
AAIL86
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sat Jan 28, 2012 6:44 pm

Quoting BobLoblaw (Reply 48):
That isnt going to happen. How can US take over AA if DL is taking over US? You must think Doug Parker and Scott Kirby are not very smart to fall for a trick which forces them to dump DFW and MIA.

Exactly. This is a fanboy fantasy - the probability is extremely low. I mean, why don't you suggest a scenario where US and AA present DL with a check for all their cash on hand, that could happen too, no?

Delta is doing whatever they can to mess with AA's reorganization and prevent a potential merger, as an improved AA or combined AA/US would be a more formidable competitor. I'm sure they would welcome an acquisition and are aggressively pursuing their options- but the question is what the other players (including the DOJ) will allow.
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PIEAvantiP180
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sat Jan 28, 2012 7:02 pm

Quoting BobLoblaw (Reply 48):
Quoting AAIL86 (Reply 51):

I think what he is talking about is that DL would just take a minor equity stake in US, buy some of their stock. not a full buy of the company. It would be same what they are doing with AM and GOL, they own some of their stock and it still allows the other company to carry out its own plans and mergers if they choose to do so. DL buying a piece of US and US merging with AA is legal.
 
andrewuber
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sat Jan 28, 2012 10:31 pm

Not to be off topic - but if AA and US merge, which name will the "new" carrier keep? I'm guessing AA, and the US brand would disappear? That's how they did it with the HP/US merger, kept the "bigger" name...
I'd rather shoot BAD_MOTIVE
 
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einsteinboricua
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sat Jan 28, 2012 10:31 pm

Quoting coronado (Reply 26):
Let's get really devious here and think it through:
a) Delta makes a pitch for US
b) US complains and tries to get Delta to pay more to buy US
c) Delta says OK, we will support you and invest in US, and add another 400MM-700MM in capital to US's balance sheet, so that now US is strong enough and US can take over AA,
d) and then DL will ask US once they control AA, to turn over DFW and MIA to DL in exchange for DL's relinquishing their ownership share in US.

Interesting scenario. Never thought about it. DL then has some sort of Golden Share in US...
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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mayor
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sat Jan 28, 2012 10:45 pm

Quoting AndrewUber (Reply 53):
Not to be off topic - but if AA and US merge, which name will the "new" carrier keep? I'm guessing AA, and the US brand would disappear? That's how they did it with the HP/US merger, kept the "bigger" name...

I'm guessing that Doug Parker doesn't hold much loyalty to the US Airways name, because in the US/DL scenario, he was willing to use the Delta name for the combined airline, even if US was the controlling entity.
"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
 
silentbob
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sat Jan 28, 2012 10:53 pm

Quoting AndrewUber (Reply 53):
Not to be off topic - but if AA and US merge, which name will the "new" carrier keep? I'm guessing AA, and the US brand would disappear? That's how they did it with the HP/US merger, kept the "bigger" name...

The US brand would disappear but US would have to be the acquiring entity or it would trip a clause in the pilot contract that would make their wages absurdly expensive.

If I remember correctly, if anyone acquires control of US, there is a clause in the East pilot contract that puts them back to pre-bankruptcy pay rates. Something that isn't sustainable in this economic environment.
 
gaystudpilot
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sat Jan 28, 2012 11:43 pm

There are many ways this could play out. Whether any sources quoted at this point have any credible information is doubtful. If AA does not exit bankruptcy reorganization as a stand alone carrier, my bet is that it will be a three way transaction that will lead to two carriers -- with DL and US splitting AA and becoming DL and (new) AA.
 
commavia
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sun Jan 29, 2012 12:04 am

Quoting gaystudpilot (Reply 57):
If AA does not exit bankruptcy reorganization as a stand alone carrier, my bet is that it will be a three way transaction that will lead to two carriers -- with DL and US splitting AA and becoming DL and (new) AA.

For seemingly the millionth time - why would this ever happen? What possible logic or scenario would lead to the above occurring?

If AA is to be hypothetically "split up," with Delta presumably getting some of the pieces, it's plainly obvious to everyone which piece(s) Delta would want, and it's also plainly obvious that those are precisely the same pieces AA would want to hold on to. So why on earth would AA - or USAirways for that matter - want to involve Delta in any way in this, particularly considering that it is only bound to complicate the regulatory review process?
 
jfk777
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sun Jan 29, 2012 12:17 am

Delta merging with Usairways makes no sense at all. Why not merge with Air Canada, that would be a bolder step. Delta needs hubs in CLT, Philaldelphia and Phoenix like its needs Memphis and Cincinnati.
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sun Jan 29, 2012 12:31 am

Quoting gaystudpilot (Reply 57):
If AA does not exit bankruptcy reorganization as a stand alone carrier, my bet is that it will be a three way transaction that will lead to two carriers -- with DL and US splitting AA and becoming DL and (new) AA.

Given AA's pile of cash and BA and TPG's potential involvement, that has about a zero percent chance of happening.
"I dance and laugh among the rotten"
 
spyglass
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sun Jan 29, 2012 12:31 am

Anyone here well acquainted with the current state of employee (union) morale/relations w/mgmt at Tempe? If it hasn't improved in the last 6 yrs, AA wants to stay as far away from there as possible (having enough on their plate in that regard, which will likely be cause for some bickering when the CH11 proceedings conclude, however it may turn out).
I remember when......a plane trip was a big deal.
 
HPRamper
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sun Jan 29, 2012 12:47 am

Quoting spyglass (Reply 61):
Anyone here well acquainted with the current state of employee (union) morale/relations w/mgmt at Tempe?

From talking with several US employees lately, I've heard nothing but positivity. Note that I have not heard from any East pilots....but from everyone else, relations with management seem healthy. Almost everyone I've asked also sees the USAPA squabble as mere childishness and not a serious detriment to the wellbeing of the company. That said, with the FA contract seemingly on the way to being worked out, the pilot group would be the ONLY non-integrated workgroup. So often does everyone forget about the thousands of ramp and CSA employees and hundreds of MX and dispatch, etc who are completely integrated without incident.
 
FlyASAGuy2005
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sun Jan 29, 2012 12:54 am

Quoting AAIL86 (Reply 51):
Delta is doing whatever they can to mess with AA's reorganization and prevent a potential merger, as an improved AA or combined AA/US would be a more formidable competitor. I'm sure they would welcome an acquisition and are aggressively pursuing their options- but the question is what the other players (including the DOJ) will allow.

OR, that's just in your mind because your basing opinion on leaked information that may or may not be accurate. As of late, DL has had no comment on the subject, even in ther recent conference call.
What gets measured gets done.
 
commavia
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sun Jan 29, 2012 12:59 am

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 63):
OR, that's just in your mind because your basing opinion on leaked information that may or may not be accurate.

Well, aren't we all doing that? But, nonetheless, basic logic and common sense strongly points to his conclusion that Delta is doing this more to act as a spoiler than a serious participant, since there are numerous reasons already discussed as to why Delta's involvement in AMR's restructuring is highly unlikely:

1 - It is broadly agreed that Delta could not fully merge with AMR for regulatory reasons and thus any Delta involvement would effectively mean an AMR breakup

2 - Given 1, there is really little value in this for Delta, since the two most prized things they could possibly get out of AMR or USAirways would be Miami/Latin America and the Reagan slots - the former will be guarded closely and the latter is untouchable on antitrust grounds

3 - Also given 1, there is a long list of creditors and other sizeable AMR stakeholders with either deep pockets and/or strong influence who would all almost certainly be opposed to any Delta involvement - including, but not limited to: Boeing, Airbus, IAG/BA, Citibank, and all three of AA's largest unions

4 - If there is a merger to be done, not only would one with USAirways prevent far fewer regulatory hurdles, but it would actually compliment AA from a network perspective quite well (second largest hub in the Northeast hub, second largest hub in the Southeast, enviable position at Reagan, etc.)
 
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chepos
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sun Jan 29, 2012 1:10 am

Morale? I highly doubt morale at AA is at it's highest and brightest at the moment.
Yes at US like at any company you have people who might not like management but I would venture to say morale has improved in the past couple of years (aside form the pilot group). There is things we all like and dislike, but we have moved on- some are happier than others but I wouldn't say morale is at rock bottom. As with any airline employees will always have something to complain about. Believe me I work for an airline and encounter OAL employees every day, we will always have something to bitch about - it will never be heaven on earth (unless we go back to the good old days).

Regards,

Chepos
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HPRamper
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sun Jan 29, 2012 2:55 am

Quoting chepos (Reply 65):
Yes at US like at any company you have people who might not like management but I would venture to say morale has improved in the past couple of years (aside form the pilot group).

From what I've been hearing, at this point management is sort of on the sidelines and the pilot groups are more disgruntled regarding one another.
 
NYCAdvantage
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sun Jan 29, 2012 4:15 pm

Quoting gaystudpilot (Reply 57):
There are many ways this could play out. Whether any sources quoted at this point have any credible information is doubtful. If AA does not exit bankruptcy reorganization as a stand alone carrier, my bet is that it will be a three way transaction that will lead to two carriers -- with DL and US splitting AA and becoming DL and (new) AA.

I tend to agree with you, I don't think DL wants any of US, I feel they just opening up to them,

Quoting commavia (Reply 58):
why would this ever happen? What possible logic or scenario would lead to the above occurring?

We all know what Delta wants, to make it simple "MIA"and most of LHR if not all, what does US wants, by all means is to get bigger, even without MIA US/AA still makes sense to them, they get the name"AA" and since the AA name will prevail, ATI will stay in place as soon they get out of *A, South America code share with LA, Asia, CX, JL. Don't you think that is worth something to them even without MIA and some of LHR?


Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 60):
Given AA's pile of cash and BA and TPG's potential involvement, that has about a zero percent chance of happening.

you may be right, I think Delta nor US alone will be able to get AA, but if they DL/US combine forces they together will have a better chance of achieving their goals.
 
commavia
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sun Jan 29, 2012 4:40 pm

Quoting NYCAdvantage (Reply 67):
ATI will stay in place as soon they get out of *A, South America code share with LA, Asia, CX, JL. Don't you think that is worth something to them even without MIA and some of LHR?

No, I do not - not an economically justifiable "worth."

AMR - with the right fleet and cost structure, both of which it is likely to soon have - is an exceptionally valuable franchise, and there would be no economic logic for USAirways to carve that up, certainly not to aid and satisfy one of AMR's and USAirways' largest competitors.

Quoting NYCAdvantage (Reply 67):
I think Delta nor US alone will be able to get AA, but if they DL/US combine forces they together will have a better chance of achieving their goals.

Once again, how do you figure?

First off, at least from my perspective, the objectives of Delta and USAirways are basically diametrically opposed. Delta wants pieces of AMR, USAirways wants to merge with the entire thing.

Secondly, how on earth would either of those companies - let alone both together - convince the aforementioned AMR creditors and stakeholders that it would be beneficial to break AMR up into pieces? I guess they could just throw an astronomical amount of money at them, but of course that basically mitigates the economic logic of this hypothetical 3-way deal.

As I've said numerous times - I completely understand all the myriad of reasons already listed in these fantasy threads about why these hypothetical fantasy scenarios would be beneficial for Delta, and for that matter of USAirways, but how would they be beneficial to AMR, and to AMR's stakeholders who will ultimately decide what happens?

I continue to believe that there is absolutely no logic or justification whatsoever for Delta to be involved in the AMR bankruptcy/restructuring/emergence - from any perspective except Delta's, and I have yet to see any compelling evidence to the contrary.
 
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sun Jan 29, 2012 5:37 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 68):
AMR - with the right fleet and cost structure, both of which it is likely to soon have - is an exceptionally valuable franchise, and there would be no economic logic for USAirways to carve that up, certainly not to aid and satisfy one of AMR's and USAirways' largest competitors.


but probably that is the deal that Delta may offer, is for US to take or leave it,

Quoting commavia (Reply 68):
Secondly, how on earth would either of those companies - let alone both together - convince the aforementioned AMR creditors and stakeholders that it would be beneficial to break AMR up into pieces? I guess they could just throw an astronomical amount of money at them, but of course that basically mitigates the economic logic of this hypothetical 3-way deal.

I guess you said it your self Money, Delta may have boeing in their side, I don't think they would like the idea of US getting whole of AA, Unions may be able to finally break ground at DL and when you add the way the economy and fuel are shaping up, it may be better to have a bird in hand than a thousand flying.

Quoting commavia (Reply 68):
I continue to believe that there is absolutely no logic or justification whatsoever for Delta to be involved in the AMR bankruptcy/restructuring/emergence - from any perspective except Delta's, and I have yet to see any compelling evidence to the contrary.

I agree Delta is thinking in Delta, on how to be bigger and make more money, and if you own shares at DL that is what you would expect from who ever is guiding the ship. I have friends all over AA 2 of them pilots one of them told me he could welcome the idea of him flying for Delta but he doubt that it will ever happen.
 
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mayor
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sun Jan 29, 2012 6:08 pm

Quoting NYCAdvantage (Reply 69):
Unions may be able to finally break ground at DL

If there's a chance that this would happen with any scenario, I don't think DL would go for it. They just fought long and hard and the elections were in the company's favor......I don't believe they want to try it again. In the latest battle, things were pretty even, personnel wise, but if there was a DL/US, DL/AA or even a DL/US/AA deal, the anti-union DL people would certainly be outnumbered, from the outset. And I'm not even talking about the pilot's groups.

That's my theory and I'm sticking to it.   
"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
 
gaystudpilot
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sun Jan 29, 2012 6:47 pm

The original statement:

Quoting gaystudpilot (Reply 57):
If AA does not exit bankruptcy reorganization as a stand alone carrier, my bet is that it will be a three way transaction that will lead to two carriers -- with DL and US splitting AA and becoming DL and (new) AA.

Response:

Quoting commavia (Reply 58):
For seemingly the millionth time - why would this ever happen? What possible logic or scenario would lead to the above occurring?

Response:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 60):
Given AA's pile of cash and BA and TPG's potential involvement, that has about a zero percent chance of happening.

The operative word:
"If..."

Quoting gaystudpilot (Reply 57):
If AA does not exit bankruptcy reorganization as a stand alone carrier...

As argued in subsequent posts, while there are assets DL and US would like to have from AA, I believe AA continues to have a strong opportunity to exit Chapter 11 as a viable, stand alone carrier.
 
NYCAdvantage
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sun Jan 29, 2012 7:10 pm

Quoting mayor (Reply 70):
If there's a chance that this would happen with any scenario, I don't think DL would go for it. They just fought long and hard and the elections were in the company's favor......I don't believe they want to try it again. In the latest battle, things were pretty even, personnel wise, but if there was a DL/US, DL/AA or even a DL/US/AA deal, the anti-union DL people would certainly be outnumbered,

I think they don't like the idea but if, "IF" that was the only obstacle in order to get MIA and LHR from AA, I guess they will take their chances, if I recall well with NW they took their chances, I guess they know the said, "no pain no gain".
 
gaystudpilot
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sun Jan 29, 2012 7:29 pm

Quoting NYCAdvantage (Reply 72):
I think they don't like the idea but if, "IF" that was the only obstacle in order to get MIA and LHR from AA, I guess they will take their chances, if I recall well with NW they took their chances, I guess they know the said, "no pain no gain".

Good point. Why wait around to see what will happen vs trying to influence the outcome?

I'm not convinced that AA needs a domestic US merger partner yet. Longer term I believe there is more room for consolidation, just not necessarily this go around.
 
commavia
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sun Jan 29, 2012 8:00 pm

Quoting NYCAdvantage (Reply 69):
but probably that is the deal that Delta may offer, is for US to take or leave it,

Well sure - anybody can offer anything. My question, again, is: why would anybody ever consider taking it?

From AMR's perspective - if, as is almost certain, that perspective is a desire to keep the company whole and successful post-bankruptcy - no good can come from a Delta transaction. A Delta transaction means splitting up the AMR network and shaving off some of AMR's most valuable network assets.

From USAirways' perspective - what do they possibly stand to benefit from involving Delta if their interest is with AMR? If USAirways wants to merge with AMR, how does shaving off some of the most valuable pieces of AMR and handing them to a competitor improve that prospect? USAirways wouldn't need to do it in order to get regulatory approval, and they wouldn't need to do it to bolster their financing, so why bother doing it at all?

I guess that's the point in all of these scenarios involving Delta that I'm still missing - who else benefits except Delta?

Quoting NYCAdvantage (Reply 69):
I guess you said it your self Money, Delta may have boeing in their side, I don't think they would like the idea of US getting whole of AA, Unions may be able to finally break ground at DL and when you add the way the economy and fuel are shaping up, it may be better to have a bird in hand than a thousand flying.

Respectfully, I find basically all of that unlikely and implausible. I doubt Delta would have Boeing on their side in a plan to split up AMR into pieces.

Boeing (and Airbus, for that matter) benefits from more airlines in existence, not less, especially when a fragmentation of AMR would likely mean the shrinkage or outright cancellation of AA's huge recent 737 order, not to mention the 787s and 777s outstanding.

The unions are going to fight any transaction with any other airline - Delta, USAirways, anyone - but I doubt they are going to want to go along with a Delta-led breakup of AMR, since it would mean the loss of jobs for many if not most of their members. Sure, Delta and/or USAirways may offer them jobs, but with DOH for bidding, vacation, etc.? Highly doubtful.

And as for fuel and the "way the economy is shaping up," I again fail to see how that in any way bolsters a Delta plan. If anything, higher fuel prices further reinforce the future value of AMR's soon-to-begin-arriving fleet of shiny, brand, far-more-fuel-efficient airplanes that are going to dramatically transform AMR's cost structure. That deal has nothing to do with Delta, and again, indeed would likely get shrunken or cancelled if AMR were to be broken up.

And all of the above again doesn't capture all of the stakeholders that could be involved in this - including IAG, which has quite deep pockets as well and has perhaps the gravest and most critically desperate strategic necessity to see AMR succeed. If IAG loses AA, they lose their access to much of the domestic U.S. market. I think it is quite likely that they will participate in AMR's restructuring, and needless to say, they sure as ---- are not going to be supporting a Delta-led breakup.

Quoting gaystudpilot (Reply 73):
Good point. Why wait around to see what will happen vs trying to influence the outcome?

Well obviously. I guess the point I, and perhaps some others, have been trying to make is that it doesn't appear - again, at least to me - that Delta really has much ability to influence anything here. I have no doubt they want to - you are of course spot on there - but I just don't see how they can. What card can they play?

Quoting gaystudpilot (Reply 73):
I'm not convinced that AA needs a domestic US merger partner yet. Longer term I believe there is more room for consolidation, just not necessarily this go around.

A theoretical "new AA" post-merger would benefit from having a larger and stronger network, as USAirways actually does compliment AA quite well in several key areas, including the Northeast (where AA would instantly going from having a weak presence to the second largest hub in the region), and in the Southeast, where Charlotte is and will continue to be the only viable competitor to Atlanta. Plus, needless to say, the Reagan operation is absolutely invaluable. That being said, of course, the risks and downsides of this hypothetical combination are huge - starting first and foremost with the inevitably messy union complications.
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sun Jan 29, 2012 8:58 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 74):
From USAirways' perspective - what do they possibly stand to benefit from involving Delta if their interest is with AMR?

I ask this myself, I think $$$$$ might (very small might btw) get US to give something up. Look at the LGA/DCA slot swap. kinda apples to oranges, but DL got way more slots and US got some route authorities and cash in return. They're open to cash. Will DL offer enough cash? I don't know, I'm not even sure a US/AA is inevitable or not. I'm sure US selling MIA to DL has a price--but that price may be wayyy out of DL's league, or maybe US is willing to part with it for something DL is willing to pay. Who knows. But saying xxxxxxxx WON'T happen is never a wise thing to say
 
commavia
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sun Jan 29, 2012 9:12 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 75):
They're open to cash. Will DL offer enough cash? I don't know, I'm not even sure a US/AA is inevitable or not. I'm sure US selling MIA to DL has a price--but that price may be wayyy out of DL's league, or maybe US is willing to part with it for something DL is willing to pay.

Well sure - everything has a price. Of course there is some number that Delta could give to AMR's creditors committee, and/or for that matter hypothetically USAirways is they and AMR were merging, to get AMR to sell certain key assets. That number does exist - and it probably has lots of zeroes in it. But my strong suspicion is that that number is way outside the bounds of what Delta would ever find economically acceptable - it would end up mitigating the entire economic logic of the transaction for Delta.
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sun Jan 29, 2012 9:22 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 76):
But my strong suspicion is that that number is way outside the bounds of what Delta would ever find economically acceptable - it would end up mitigating the entire economic logic of the transaction for Delta.

Well, that is all it is for you... a "strong suspicion." You know as much as I do. And DL might have a strong suspicion that it is outside of their bounds, but it would be dumb for DL to pass this opportunity by off of a "suspicion"
 
EricR
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sun Jan 29, 2012 9:23 pm

I really do not understand why US would sell MIA to DL. They are in the business to provide airtravel, not to sell pieces of their network. MIA would be just as valuable to US as it would be to DL. I don't think the slot swap is in the same ballpark as selling the MIA hub. LGA was not working for US, MIA is working for AA.
 
commavia
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sun Jan 29, 2012 9:28 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 77):
Well, that is all it is for you... a "strong suspicion."

... and I've never claimed any differently.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 77):
but it would be dumb for DL to pass this opportunity by off of a "suspicion"

Well sure, again, it's self-evident that Delta will explore their options and weight the possibilities. But in the end, it is my belief that Delta's involvement is implausible and unrealistic, and thus unlikely.
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sun Jan 29, 2012 9:45 pm

Quoting EricR (Reply 78):
MIA would be just as valuable to US as it would be to DL.

I've thought the same as well. I think MIA would be the last US would let go of, perhaps DL is trying to get some NYC, LAX, or DFW...

Quoting commavia (Reply 79):
Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 77):
but it would be dumb for DL to pass this opportunity by off of a "suspicion"

Well sure, again, it's self-evident that Delta will explore their options and weight the possibilities. But in the end, it is my belief that Delta's involvement is implausible and unrealistic, and thus unlikely.

Well it wasn't directed at you I should've made that clear, it's to the people saying ______ will or will not happen, 100%
 
HPRamper
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sun Jan 29, 2012 11:17 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 75):
I'm sure US selling MIA to DL has a price--but that price may be wayyy out of DL's league, or maybe US is willing to part with it for something DL is willing to pay. Who knows. But saying xxxxxxxx WON'T happen is never a wise thing to say
Quoting EricR (Reply 78):
I really do not understand why US would sell MIA to DL. They are in the business to provide airtravel, not to sell pieces of their network. MIA would be just as valuable to US as it would be to DL. I don't think the slot swap is in the same ballpark as selling the MIA hub. LGA was not working for US, MIA is working for AA.

I think it's more likely that the new airline would sell off the remaining LGA ops and consolidate NYC area ops at JFK. DL would obviously rather have JFK. Personally, I don't think AA would give up much of anything with value other than finally completing the pulldown of STL and possibly making some sort of decision on BOS and LGA. While BOS used to be a strong market for US, they closed the BOS focus a long time ago and I'm not really sure that the removal of one competitor will change their stance as AA was not the airline they were losing money fighting.

Of course, if any potential move was deemed illegal (which I don't expect seeing as the new airline would still be smaller than DL, UA and WN) certain interesting moves could be made regarding even such places as JFK or ORD. I'm almost positive that the current US management deems DFW more valuable than ORD if they were forced to make a choice. A bloodbath between DL and UA at ORD would certainly be fun to watch play out.
 
FlyASAGuy2005
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Sun Jan 29, 2012 11:48 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 80):
Well it wasn't directed at you I should've made that clear, it's to the people saying ______ will or will not happen, 100

Exactly...

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 81):
finally completing the pulldown of STL

There is nothing left at STL for American to cut.. Only flights left are to all the hubs. The only non-hub flight is DCA. STL is not like what's left at MEM or CVG for Delta.
What gets measured gets done.
 
CIDFlyer
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:50 am

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 82):

There is nothing left at STL for American to cut.. Only flights left are to all the hubs. The only non-hub flight is DCA. STL is not like what's left at MEM or CVG for Delta.

don't they still also do LAX? I think they do...but I guess thats technically a hub/focus city....but you are right, there isnt anything left at STL to really cut.
 
caliboy78
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Mon Jan 30, 2012 1:16 am

I think that AA/AMR might end up merging with US but not after the BK is done and I'm almost 100% sure it's going to be under AA/AMR terms and conditions not US.

I know AA is on BK but they also have exclusivity from any meger/takeover for some time during the restructuring and I believe that since they entered with so much $$$$$ and have so many creditors that rather see AA come out as a strong whole entity AA holds the upper hand on this game.

I also believe AA will come out very strong and hungry to grow and become #1 again since their costs are going to be lower and able to compete where they couldn't compete before due to their higher cost. Then I think that's when they might condiser a merger or buyout and if memory serves me right AA is/was always been the acquirer not the acquiree....

I think that DL just wants to butt in to make the transaction more expensive/slower..... but as I been wrong many times before I think this is all a wait and see what happens game.....   
TAAke pride on what you do and do it well.
 
FlyASAGuy2005
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Mon Jan 30, 2012 2:24 am

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 83):
don't they still also do LAX? I think they do...but I guess thats technically a hub/focus city....but you are right, there isnt anything left at STL to really cut.

LAX is a "cornerstone" for AA along with DFW, JFK/LGA, MIA, and ORD. Those are the only flights out of STL for AA along with DCA.
What gets measured gets done.
 
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enilria
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Mon Jan 30, 2012 2:44 am

Quoting LDVAviation (Reply 2):
Delta is too clever for their own good. Now, they are trying to pressure AA into merging with US. LOL.
Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 3):
Haha what are you doing DL? I think they're just throwing a bunch of curve balls out trying to mess stuff up.
Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 6):
I think it's all of the above including driving up their stock price. A lot of noise but I don't see much weight behind it.
Quoting seabosdca (Reply 9):
This is DL trying to disrupt what it sees as an impending US/AA deal.
Quoting DL WIDGET HEAD (Reply 41):
Quoting ajhYXE (Reply 40):
I believe they are simply "meddling" in the affairs of both US and AA.
I think DL is serious about aquiring another airline and not simply "meddling" in their affairs. Which airline that is remains to be seen but I'm enjoying watching this chess match being played.

OK, let me be frank, this is DL throwing a wrench in things. US has pretty much zero value to DL. Here is why:

PHX: DL doesn't want a hub where they are 50-50 with WN. No value to DL.
DCA: DOT will not look favorably at the US-DL slot deal only to see DL end up with the slots again + all the US slots. Big DOT problems.
LGA: US Shuttle would have to be divested, no doubt.
PHL: Even if the DOT let them keep it, it is of no value to DL unless the abandon JFK to own PHL. I don't see DL doing that. If they try to consolidate PHL to JFK, somebody else will grab PHL. No value to DL.
CLT: Tremendous value to DL. Too much value because DL would *OWN* the SE USA if they had both CLT and ATL. It's so ridiculous that it is not even worth being considered. I believe DL@ATL and [email protected]CLT are the 1st and 3rd largest hubs in world by seats. (DFW is #2). Plus, DL would want to shut down CLT to get more value for ATL. Anyway, it's ridiculous.

So, what would they even be buying? It would be more like a mercy killing than a merger. DOT would be a bunch or crazy morons to approve such a thing in any form.
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Mon Jan 30, 2012 3:07 am

I'll just throw it out there, if Republicans get elected in November, there is a chance they'll have a more "hands off businesses" approach, for better or for worse. Not saying it would amount to DL+US, but it might lead to some interesting acquisitions...
 
HPRamper
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Mon Jan 30, 2012 3:36 am

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 82):
There is nothing left at STL for American to cut.. Only flights left are to all the hubs. The only non-hub flight is DCA. STL is not like what's left at MEM or CVG for Delta.
Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 83):
don't they still also do LAX? I think they do...but I guess thats technically a hub/focus city....but you are right, there isnt anything left at STL to really cut.

Cape Air does a lot of flying out of STL for AA. Some is probably EAS flying but I still think those help feed the mainline service making STL still a de facto small focus for AA. Would new management even still keep such a network of regional flying?
 
FlyASAGuy2005
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Mon Jan 30, 2012 4:49 am

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 88):
Cape Air does a lot of flying out of STL for AA. Some is probably EAS flying but I still think those help feed the mainline service making STL still a de facto small focus for AA. Would new management even still keep such a network of regional flying?

All EAS and to very small markets. Yes, AA puts their code on the 9K flights to make them work. It's pretty much just like the Great Lakes deal in MSP for DL and UA in DEN. Just a code-share and not an outright capacity purchase in the traditional "connection"/"express" sense.
What gets measured gets done.
 
sccutler
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Mon Jan 30, 2012 5:25 am

Quoting spyglass (Reply 61):

Anyone here well acquainted with the current state of employee (union) morale/relations w/mgmt at Tempe?
Quoting HPRamper (Reply 66):

From what I've been hearing, at this point management is sort of on the sidelines and the pilot groups are more disgruntled regarding one another.

US Airways guy I know (came up through HP) says, and I quote, "The union can kiss my ass, I think we'd be better-off without 'em. " He's plain-spoken that way. He feels that the union has mishandled the deal from day one.

Not like he's all that fond of the executive suite, either.
...three miles from BRONS, clear for the ILS one five approach...
 
gigneil
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Mon Jan 30, 2012 7:08 am

Quoting EricR (Reply 78):
I really do not understand why US would sell MIA to DL. They are in the business to provide airtravel, not to sell pieces of their network. MIA would be just as valuable to US as it would be to DL. I don't think the slot swap is in the same ballpark as selling the MIA hub. LGA was not working for US, MIA is working for AA.

US doesn't have anything at MIA that DL would want.

NS
 
HPRamper
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Mon Jan 30, 2012 8:19 am

Quoting gigneil (Reply 91):
US doesn't have anything at MIA that DL would want.

EricR means US as in, the potential new AA/US.
 
BOACCunard
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Mon Jan 30, 2012 8:22 am

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 81):
I think it's more likely that the new airline would sell off the remaining LGA ops and consolidate NYC area ops at JFK. DL would obviously rather have JFK.

Wait, what new airline are we talking about here? DL/US? AA/US? DL/AA? So many different combinations are being discussed I'm getting confused.

If it's DL/US, then obviously it would have to sell off every last one of US's remaining LGA slots.

If it's AA/US, I'm not sure it would have to give up anything at all. DL would still have more slots at both JFK and LGA.

If it's DL/AA, it would have to sell off all of AA's LGA slots and most if not all of its JFK slots.

But why on earth would any of them want to consolidate their NYC ops at JFK?

There seems to be a perception among many people here that what AA and DL really want is a hub at JFK equivalent to the UA hub at EWR, and that the only reason they maintain such large operations at LGA is that the slots aren't there at JFK.

The thing that people fail to realize is that JFK is not EWR.

Most of the people who prefer EWR for international and longer domestic flights will also prefer it for shorter domestic flights. Whether the choice is just between EWR and JFK or it is between EWR, JFK, and LGA, they are going to choose EWR first,

But many of the people who prefer JFK for international and longer domestic flights don't prefer it for shorter domestic flights. When the choice is between EWR and JFK they'' choose JFK, but when it's between EWR, JFK, and LGA, they'll choose LGA, not JFK.

[Edited 2012-01-30 00:52:18]
Getting There is Half the Fun!
 
HPRamper
Posts: 4965
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Mon Jan 30, 2012 8:33 am

Quoting BOACCunard (Reply 93):
But why on earth would any of them want to consolidate their NYC ops at JFK?

Because a true hub is not possible at LGA and EWR is taken. You consolidate at JFK, sure that may not be the preferred airport for millions of people, but that's ok because for millions more it works just fine, and nobody is going to be flying transatlantic from LGA.

For a new AA merged with US, there is some flexibility because no matter what happens in the NYC area, there is still a healthy and profitable hub at PHL not so far away. This imaginary airline could probably do away with either LGA or JFK completely and still be just fine. We already know the US management preferred to wash its hands of the NYC bloodbath and doesn't really seem to mind missing out on traffic from the largest market in the country. Indeed, US has made plenty of money having no large-scale service to the country's three largest markets. To some it may seem like a logical faux pas to only hub in second-tier markets as US does, but clearly hubbing in the three largest markets has not helped AA be profitable. It has worked for DL, apparently.
 
EricR
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Mon Jan 30, 2012 3:09 pm

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 92):
Quoting gigneil (Reply 91):
US doesn't have anything at MIA that DL would want.

EricR means US as in, the potential new AA/US.

Correct. I should have clarified, I did mean potential new AA/US.
 
ckfred
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Mon Jan 30, 2012 5:08 pm

US buying AA makes a lot of sense. DFW and LAX are better cities for hub operations than PHX, so PHX could be scaled back, probably a lot. Obvioulsy, there would be some balancing of JFK/LGA and PHL, but UA/CO have EWR and IAD, plus the P.S. service out of JFK. So, that can work.

DL would only want chunks of AA. Namely, MIA, DFW, possibly the AA terminal at JFK, and some slots at LHR. I could also see DL taking over some AA gate space at ORD. The old NW gates at ORD are in T2, which is downright dreary compared to the rest of the airport. It's also tight in there. Moving into part of K would give allow DL to have a few more gates, and simply more room (remember that an MD-88 and an A320 bumped, while one was being pushed back).

You would also assume that DL would have interest in some of AA's fleet, including the 738s, the 772s, the 773s, and the 789s on order. And some of the 763s are still young.

I don't see anything that US has that DL needs, other than some of its fleet. Between ATL and JFK, it doesn't need PHL. Between MSP, SLC, and LAX, it doesn't need PHX. With ATL, it doesn't need CLT.

DL buying US makes no sense from a labor perpsective. DL has been dealing with elections as to whether all DL/NW employees (except the pilots) will be non-union or represented by the NW union. DL has been doing well. So, why go through that hassle again with US, which has its own set of problems?
 
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mayor
Posts: 6218
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RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Mon Jan 30, 2012 5:29 pm

Quoting ckfred (Reply 96):
Moving into part of K would give allow DL to have a few more gates, and simply more room

Maybe we could have our old H gates back........or even better, now that we've moved out of L, take the L concourse, back.   
"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
 
ericaasen
Posts: 82
Joined: Sun Jun 06, 2010 5:39 am

RE: WSJ - Delta Weighing US Airways Deal

Mon Jan 30, 2012 8:37 pm

Quoting ckfred (Reply 96):
(remember that an MD-88 and an A320 bumped, while one was being pushed back).

That had absolutely nothing to do with tight gate space, the A320 had been pushed out when the MD88 was pushed into it. That could happen at any gate at any airport in the world that requires the aircraft to be turned on pushback behind another gate. But saying that, I would love to be over in T3 with a CVG sized operation.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 96):
DL buying US makes no sense from a labor perpsective. DL has been dealing with elections as to whether all DL/NW employees (except the pilots) will be non-union or represented by the NW union. DL has been doing well. So, why go through that hassle again with US, which has its own set of problems?

Exactly! And this is what I think will give ATL the most cause for concern in any possible mergers with US or AA. Because US/AA+ NW = Union. And everyone who lived through the rather bitter campaign and endless arguements in the break room know that the last thing DL wants is a heavily unionized workforce.

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