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AusA380
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QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 12:30 am

QF has made their Asian Business strategy as a key plank of their international business recovery strategy. It was to be fully delivered last year around the time of the Jetstar Japan announcement. Little eventuated then.

SMH article http://www.smh.com.au/business/qanta...ter-talks-fail-20120309-1uo7y.html stating that the proposed plan with MH has collapsed.

Given the stated importance of this and the failure - what next for the QF Board and Alan Joyce?
 
RickNRoll
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 12:52 am

Give him a pay rise.
 
Sydscott
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 1:01 am

Quoting AusA380 (Thread starter):
Given the stated importance of this and the failure - what next for the QF Board and Alan Joyce?

It was always a pie in the sky idea anyway.

If QF wants to drive their International ops back to profit they need to;

1) Keep improving their service offering to capture a larger amount of Asia/Australia International Corporate Traffic;
2) Reduce their cost base for their services and drive efficiencies;
3) Expand their service offering between non Sydney ports and Asia and re-focus on profitable point to point flying.

QF already has a profitable brand in Asia in Jetstar Asia which they will keep expanding. They have their hand in Jetstar Japan and Jetstar Pacific which are both growth ventures. QF group have already defined what their position is going to be in Asia and that is at the LCC end of the market.

For QF International, well if they can't make money after they've eliminated half their Heathrow flying, eliminated India, eliminated AKL-LAX, moved SFO to DFW, moved EZE to SCL and, by then, retired basically half of their 744 fleet, then I really don't think there's going to be any way forward for it!
 
sierrakilo44
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 2:06 am

This should be they wake up call senior management and the board need. After the absolute disaster that was 2011 for QF, start with some basic things people have been calling for for years.

Buy 777's, the single biggest improvement to reducing International's cost base they could ever do.

Start working with your staff, instead of against them to find efficiencies,

Concentrate on what your passengers want, instead of what you want to give them (Full service vs Jetstar for example)

Improve the core product, QF International, instead of concentrating on start up ventures that either don't come into being (RedQ) or make substantial losses (JQ Pacific)
 
thegeek
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 2:55 am

Quoting AusA380 (Thread starter):
Given the stated importance of this and the failure - what next for the QF Board and Alan Joyce?

New CEO?

Quoting sierrakilo44 (Reply 3):
Buy 777's, the single biggest improvement to reducing International's cost base they could ever do.

That ship has sailed.
 
Quokkas
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 3:00 am

In a piece linked to the OPs article, Tony Webber (former Qantas Group chief economist) appears to be arguing that pursuing a "premium airline" (as the plan with MH was supposed to be) is unlikely to achieve the results the board is expecting.

First, he argues, that the real growth in Asia is in the LCC market and that the emerging middle class are more likely to use those carriers before considering spending a lot more on a premium service. Secondly, he argues that the middle class willingness to fill the premium cabins is lower due to equity markets expectations of profitability being down. Finally, he argues that the competition will not just sit back and watch, offering the example of Scoot being a response to Jetstar and Jetstar Asia. This would lead one to conclude that the current strategy is likely to fail.

Unfortunately in his piece Tom Webber offers no alternative strategy. So where from here?
 
Sydscott
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 3:45 am

Quoting sierrakilo44 (Reply 3):
Buy 777's, the single biggest improvement to reducing International's cost base they could ever do.
Quoting thegeek (Reply 4):
That ship has sailed.

QF needs the 787 and needs it now!

Quoting Quokkas (Reply 5):
So where from here?

Focus on Australian point to point flying. Build BNE/PER - HKG to daily, build ADL-SIN/HKG, build MEL-ASIA point to point flying, build BNE- ASIA point to point flying, re-add SYD-PEK and explore using JQ A332's on Australia-China direct services to places like Guanzhou and JQ's 787's to Australia-India direct services. This is where the QF group should be focusing, not on intra-asian services which JQ can cover from Japan, Singapore or Vietnam.
 
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jetfuel
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 3:51 am

Maybe now you might start to agree with me

Why Qantas Board Should Be Sacked (by jetfuel Oct 22 2011 in Civil Aviation)
 
sierrakilo44
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 3:59 am

Quoting thegeek (Reply 4):
That ship has sailed.

Why?

Every other airline in the world seems to operate them, EK, CZ, 2 of QF's direct competitors just made big orders

Boeing are even making the new 777=9X, recognising the type's long term potential

They certaintely have the money if they divert some of those 110 A320 orders which they no longer require

Maybe they could continue BKK and HKG to LHR with a profit, and as well as return to SFO, FCO, CDG? And maybe PEK, BER as well??

No this ship has certaintly not sailed IMHO
 
Sydscott
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 4:10 am

Quoting sierrakilo44 (Reply 8):
Every other airline in the world seems to operate them, EK, CZ, 2 of QF's direct competitors just made big orders
Quoting sierrakilo44 (Reply 8):
No this ship has certaintly not sailed IMHO

EK has zero 787's on order, CZ has 10 787's on order. QF have 50 787's on order so it's pretty clear where the QF ship is heading and it's not for the 777!
 
smi0006
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 4:24 am

Quoting sydscott (Reply 6):

QF needs the 787 and needs it now!
Quoting sydscott (Reply 9):
EK has zero 787's on order, CZ has 10 787's on order. QF have 50 787's on order so it's pretty clear where the QF ship is heading and it's not for the 777!

The big question is though, how many will QF receive vs. JQ and when will they receive them? The sooner the better, still maybe when QF start to receive a few of the ex-JQ A332s they can start sending them to Asia. The current A330 fleet seems somewhat stretched. Maybe the collapse of this plan will create a rethink in the JQ 787 allocation.

When will the seats and interrior have to be looked in by prior to delivery or has this already occured? Not to mention training. Or has this idea sailed also?
 
sierrakilo44
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 4:37 am

Quoting sydscott (Reply 9):

EK has zero 787's on order, CZ has 10 787's on order. QF have 50 787's on order so it's pretty clear where the QF ship is heading and it's not for the 777!

No, I meant the 777 ship for QF, I believe the 77W should be used as a replacement for the 744 and a complement to QF's 787 order, which is desperately needed by QF mainline, not JQ, as a 763 and older 333 replacement now. (Have you been on a 763 lately? The 80's style fuzzy projector is a little outdated)
JQ should do fine with 332's for their international operations, they're quite new and seem to be making a profit with them.
 
rogercamel
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 5:15 am

What exactly was QF's intention? To set up intra-Asian flying between the major cities (KUL, SIN, HKG, BKK perhaps Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh and Hanoi)? If so, it was somewhat naive (to be kind). All major cities are already linked by premium and low cost airlines at reasonable if not high frequencies. Competition would have been immense, and it's not beyond Asian governments to protect their own.

Was it to provide premium level links between spokes and major cities either domestically or internationally? If so, what can QF add to the existing premium and low cost carriers doing them? I can hardly see a massive feed from Australia to places like Bandung in Indonesia, where I flew earlier this week on MI.

Finally, exactly who were QF aiming to attract to their flights? If it is people who currently do not fly (i.e. those on low incomes in major cities, or anyone outside of the major cities) then premium is not the way to go - people aren't really going to spend 2-3 months salary on a 2 hour flight on a QF joint venture, when they could do it for 2 weeks- 1 month's salary on a LCC. Those who already fly in Asia tend to fly as much as they want/need to.

As someone who works trying to improve transport links in countries like Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia, the potential for air travel is massive; getting competing ground based transport systems up to a competitive level is a long way off - high speed rail and efficient motorway networks are IMHO at least a decade away at best, and with many emerging countries putting very high taxes on car imports, and the shear cost of high speed rail construction, the case will remain strong for a while.
 
aviasian
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 5:16 am

It may not seem like anything now ... but I personally feel that Qantas has just walked away from the brink of a future disaster. Hindsight will eventually prove that the failure of their talks with Malaysia Airlines is a blessing in disguise.

KC Sim
 
fiscal
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 5:29 am

Quoting sierrakilo44 (Reply 3):
Buy 777's, the single biggest improvement to reducing International's cost base they could ever do.

A bit late now, and that is mainly Boeing's fault by promising so much with the 787 delivery dates.

Quoting sydscott (Reply 2):
1) Keep improving their service offering to capture a larger amount of Asia/Australia International Corporate Traffic;
2) Reduce their cost base for their services and drive efficiencies;
3) Expand their service offering between non Sydney ports and Asia and re-focus on profitable point to point flying.

1. As far as flight crew are concerned maybe some re-training to be service as well as safety conscious is probably well overdue. As far as hard product is concerned, it can be costly and might not help with your number 2.
2. Tough one. Staff costs are the highest in the industry, and competition is stiff, so really 1 and 2 are a balancing act that could take a while to keep lifting the bar gradually.
3. Again, no easy answer here. Yes, it would be nice, but they want to capture traffic from the overseas hubs, like they used to do, that is before the Gulf airlines became too strong.

Quoting jetfuel (Reply 7):
Maybe now you might start to agree with me

Sorry, no can do, as most were not reasons but statements, and I see AC is currently having the same issues as QF did last year, and not mentioning the number of airline failures in the past few months, everyone is having a difficult time, unless their governments are subsidizing.
 
Sydscott
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 5:43 am

Quoting smi0006 (Reply 10):
The big question is though, how many will QF receive vs. JQ and when will they receive them? The sooner the better, still maybe when QF start to receive a few of the ex-JQ A332s they can start sending them to Asia. The current A330 fleet seems somewhat stretched. Maybe the collapse of this plan will create a rethink in the JQ 787 allocation.

Well we know that the first 15 787's are going to JQ and that the JQ A332's are coming back to QF domestic to replace 763's. First JQ 787 delivery is scheduled for early 2013, first QF 789 delivery is scheduled for teh second half of 2015.

Quoting sierrakilo44 (Reply 11):
No, I meant the 777 ship for QF, I believe the 77W should be used as a replacement for the 744 and a complement to QF's 787 order, which is desperately needed by QF mainline, not JQ, as a 763 and older 333 replacement now.

The 777 ship has gone for QF. They've stated publicly many times that they're not interested. 9 744's are being converted to A380 standard to be retained until 2020 and the rest will be gradually retired without replacement so the 77W is virtually redundant under the current fleet plan for QF International which is to spend as little capital as possible on it until it makes some $$$ for itself. The A333's are only 10 years old and will no doubt get an interior facelift eventually. The 763's will start to go in greater numbers from next year when the JQ A332's start coming back. If anything QF needs a few more A332's for the dometic ops to get rid of the 763's faster and I don't know why they don't cancel the alst 6 A380's they have on order and convert them to an equivalent value of A332's for delivery over the next 3 to 4 years.

Quoting sierrakilo44 (Reply 11):
JQ should do fine with 332's for their international operations, they're quite new and seem to be making a profit with them.

As above, the QF intention is for the A332's in JQ to come back to the domestic market to replace the 763's with 787's taking over from A332's. That gives JQ the competitive edge it needs to drive costs lower while QF mainline domestic gets much needed planes to replace the 763 with. As I said above, I think it's inevitable that the A333's will get an interior facelift at some point in order to standardise the on-board product of the QF International fleet. By 2016, the QF mainline International fleet will be, according to their fleet plan, 14 A380's, 10 A333's, 4 A332's, 9 744's. Then we will see where the 789's go.
 
smi0006
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 6:04 am

Quoting fiscal (Reply 14):
1. As far as flight crew are concerned maybe some re-training to be service as well as safety conscious is probably well overdue. As far as hard product is concerned, it can be costly and might not help with your number 2.

All cabin crew no matter how long they have been with the company will soon start annual customer service training. Hopefully this will help, although sadly knowing QF they will have hired a consultancy firm that will focus on branding, language and values and not on the more hardcore elements of attitude, attention to detail and consistency...

Quoting sydscott (Reply 15):
As above, the QF intention is for the A332's in JQ to come back to the domestic market to replace the 763's with 787's taking over from A332's

How badly do the 767s honestly need replacing? Are the JQ A332s not the ones with the strengthened forward floor that can support the Skybed? Could not a few be sent from MEL/BNE/PER into Asia? PVG/NRT/HKG? Surely they could send a few Internationally and keep a few for domestic, what is the total count?
 
thegeek
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 6:26 am

Quoting smi0006 (Reply 16):
Are the JQ A332s not the ones with the strengthened forward floor that can support the Skybed?

First four JQ A332s have the weaker floors. No others.

I still can't for the life of me understand why A332 for domestic and A333 for international, particularly when the latter has a lower MTOW. Surely the bigger bird would be outstanding for the transcons.

Re: 777
I don't see VA wiping QF of the map with its 777s. The 777 doesn't have the CASM of the A380 with which it is directly competing, so why buy it? Use it where?
BNE-LAX
SYD-SFO
SYD-NRT

Anything else? That's not enough routes to justify a new type in the fleet.

If the upgrades to the 777 work out well then I am sure that QF will evaluate them but as it is it makes no sense. And the upgrades haven't even been launched so they are merely a proposal.
 
TruemanQLD
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 6:44 am

To be honest, was the plan with MH ever going to go through? I mean, MH is in a much worse state than QF at the moment so that arrangement was never going to end well. That doesn't mean I don't think a premium carrier wouldn't however, but rather based out of SIN or PVG.

I realise nearly everyone on this board is smarter than the men and women, who have great experience and knowledge, that run QANTAS. However, I don't feel that way about myself, so I am going to hold back making further judgement until what the course of action they chose to take is.

Honestly, this speculation about QFAsia has been going on for months with very little new information/new stuff to talk about. Its getting old. Lets just wait and see what QF come out with, and then judge it off fact, not speculation.
 
AusA380
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 7:16 am

Quoting TruemanQLD (Reply 18):
Honestly, this speculation about QFAsia has been going on for months with very little new information/new stuff to talk about. Its getting old. Lets just wait and see what QF come out with, and then judge it off fact, not speculation.

Hi TrudmanQLD - they have now come out with a definitive ASX statement - see the ASX website, so that is the current facts.

From a management perspective (and I do have some expertise in that area), QF have been providing the Asia Business strategy as critical to their success, but have failed to meet every timeline they have indicated.

This relates to poor management/execution or poor strategy or both.

I acknowledge that QF has some significant issues to address, but these have been a long time in the making and nothing I see in the ASX (which is suppose to be fully transparent to so the market is fully informed), shows that they have a coherent and clear strategy apart from offshoring and reducing salary costs ( I know this is a very simplistic overview).
 
StickShaker
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 10:18 am

Quoting fiscal (Reply 14):
Quoting sierrakilo44 (Reply 3):Buy 777's, the single biggest improvement to reducing International's cost base they could ever do.

A bit late now, and that is mainly Boeing's fault by promising so much with the 787 delivery dates.

It probably is a bit late but the fact that QF got themselves into this situation is a poor reflection on corporate governence and management, not to mention strategy. By putting their eggs all in the 787 basket QF left themselves horribly exposed to any potential delays in the 787 program. They didn't need a crystal ball - just a reasonable dose of risk assesment and risk management which should be applicable to all corporate strategies (everyone else does it).

The 787 delays have affected all airlines who ordered them but QF have been particularly hard hit as they have no other 300/350 seat long haul platform while the 744's continue to guzzle fuel against competing 77W's and are frequently unreliable. Yes, the 380's have wonderful CASM but they can only operate to hubs thus constraining QF's network strategy. QF have displayed little imagination over the years in supplimenting hubs with point to point while the rest of the world was rapidly changing around them. No-one would expect QF to match the list of destinations offered by EK but they never even tried, preferring to live in a permanent state of intellectual laziness.

This is why QF international is performing so poorly - they are not offering the product that people want. Geoff Dixon did indicate an interest in the 350-1000 acknowledging a need for such a sized platform but no such message from Alan Joyce. Joyce knows exactly what to do with JQ (reflecting his LCC background) and the results speak for themselves but he seems to have little idea as to what to do with QF international.

Time for the board to act I think.


Regards,
StickShaker
 
weebie
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 11:29 am

Qantas will be fine. Jetstar Asia will continue to grow and eventually the blue chip American services will recover. I would like to see Adelaide and Perth refocosed at international level though.
 
jfk777
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 12:30 pm

Quoting sierrakilo44 (Reply 3):
Buy 777's, the single biggest improvement to reducing International's cost base they could ever do.
Quoting sierrakilo44 (Reply 11):
No, I meant the 777 ship for QF, I believe the 77W should be used as a replacement for the 744 and a complement to QF's 787 order,

777 need to be part of the Qantas fleet for so many reasons that can't listed. Operating half empty 744 to FRA and Santiago, Chile is not a sound Business strategy. The only route that absolutely needs the 744ER is DFW. Maybe its time to buy Air New Zealand.
 
qf002
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 1:08 pm

Quoting thegeek (Reply 4):
New CEO?

Perhaps a panel of a.net members would work best?

Quoting jetfuel (Reply 7):
Maybe now you might start to agree with me

Maybe...

My plan for QF:

1. Get a pile of A332's quick smart (and configure with aprox. 20-24J/28W/180Y). Move all Asian flying to A330's (in much the same way that the Asian airlines tend to do it), and split high capacity routes over multiple origins (ie SYD and BNE and PER to NRT). Focus the 787 on proper long haul to the US and Europe (and JQ/domestic).

2. Get over whatever barriers are blocking a relationship with CX and get in deep. Utilise CX's outstanding coverage through China as the main push for Chinese traffic. Perhaps look at ways to take a more commanding role in Aus-HKG traffic as part of this.

3. Focus on creating a premium experience, which will appeal to the top 50% of the market (ie get rid of the backpacker traffic by bringing JQ on SYD-SIN). Invest in a dynamic product and experience, and slip into a cycle of constant renewal rather than doing more major updates ever 3-4 years.

4. Go back in time to the 1980/90's, buy up lots of petrol, set up lots of cheap offshore bases, order lots of A340's and buy EK in its early stages (this seems the most likely step of the lot for QF to take...)

Much as it seems to be a shrinkage, the answer is to give up trying to push the low end of the market. QF needs to contract it's core business and adopt a premium attitude, which dictates nice aircraft/product, a wide and effective network and services/experiences that justify the cost.

As much as the industry is about cuts and the race to the bottom, QF cannot hope to win this (with the QF brand -- JQ is another matter). Much better to give up trying, and explore other avenues (all I've observed at QF is constant cutbacks and slashes...)
 
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EK413
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 2:01 pm

Quoting sydscott (Reply 2):
1) Keep improving their service offering to capture a larger amount of Asia/Australia International Corporate Traffic;

Please replace those 1990 interior B763 aircraft which operate the SYD-HNL-SYD route with the A330!!!

Quoting sydscott (Reply 2):
Jetstar Pacific which are both growth ventures.

If I am not mistaken hasn't VN purchased JetStar Pacific...

Quoting sierrakilo44 (Reply 3):
Buy 777's, the single biggest improvement to reducing International's cost base they could ever do

The main reason behind the deferral of the last 4 A380 frames was to reduce capital expenditure... Introducing a new equipment type to the fleet will defeat the purpose of this exercise even though I am in favor of the B77W...

Quoting sierrakilo44 (Reply 3):
Concentrate on what your passengers want, instead of what you want to give them (Full service vs Jetstar for example)

Update the SYD-HNL-SYD equipment please!!! It screams for a replacement and I don't mean wait for the B787!!!

Quoting sydscott (Reply 6):
QF needs the 787 and needs it now!

Totally agree...

EK413
 
jfk777
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 2:23 pm

Qantas is living buy two pillars: expand Jetstar and some how everything will be ok in 2015 when the 787 arrives. 3 years is a lifetime in the airline industry, QF needs to get some 777 for the next ten years until it has enough 787's.
 
mogandoCI
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 2:35 pm

Quoting qf002 (Reply 23):
2. Get over whatever barriers are blocking a relationship with CX and get in deep. Utilise CX's outstanding coverage through China as the main push for Chinese traffic. Perhaps look at ways to take a more commanding role in Aus-HKG traffic as part of this.

Goodluck with this part happening anytime soon. CX has never been close friends with either QF or BA. With their super-tight JSA on the kangaroo route, CX is at best lukewarm.

CX in oneworld is a bit like SQ in star alliance - others need them much more than vice versa.
 
Sydscott
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 2:38 pm

Quoting qf002 (Reply 23):
1. Get a pile of A332's quick smart (and configure with aprox. 20-24J/28W/180Y). Move all Asian flying to A330's (in much the same way that the Asian airlines tend to do it), and split high capacity routes over multiple origins (ie SYD and BNE and PER to NRT). Focus the 787 on proper long haul to the US and Europe (and JQ/domestic).

We can armchair CEO it but I think at the very least they should be doing daily on PER/BNE - HKG, daily ADL-SIN and 3 weekly SYD-PEK. Other routes, well I would put JQ on a MEL-BNE/OOL-PVG run, make SYD - HKG double daily A380/A332 with a morning A332 service which connects to a bank of dragonair services into China, make MEL - HKG doule daily 2 x A330's the same as SYD.

As for other routes, QF really needs to step up the lobbying for an amended air services treaty with France so they can add SIN-CDG on a daily basis.
 
mogandoCI
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 2:53 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 22):
777 need to be part of the Qantas fleet for so many reasons that can't listed. Operating half empty 744 to FRA and Santiago, Chile is not a sound Business strategy. The only route that absolutely needs the 744ER is DFW. Maybe its time to buy Air New Zealand.

Well... SYD-SCL has some ETOPS barrier with the 777, but something like A343/346 would do wonders.

update : scratch that. just realized newer GE-based 777s are ETOPS330 certified 4 months back.

[Edited 2012-03-09 06:55:46]
 
PezySPU
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 3:24 pm

Quoting EK413 (Reply 24):
If I am not mistaken hasn't VN purchased JetStar Pacific...

70%, the rest is held by QF.
 
mikey72
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 3:27 pm

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 26):
CX in oneworld is a bit like SQ in star alliance - others need them much more than vice versa.

Huh, well that's gonna change ! They won't be so 'up themselves' in a minute !

lol
 
mogandoCI
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 4:42 pm

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 30):
Huh, well that's gonna change ! They won't be so 'up themselves' in a minute !

Except that CX doesn't need to. Their strong brand, O&D focus, and geographic location shields them from bloodbaths both from LCCs and from EK.

They don't do odd routes like HKD-AMM or HKG-MAD just for the sake of it.
 
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EK413
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 7:30 pm

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 28):

Half empty B744 aircraft operating SYD-FRA??? Not sure about your source of information as its one of QFs profitable European routes...

EK413
 
kiwiandrew

RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 7:55 pm

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 28):
Well... SYD-SCL has some ETOPS barrier with the 777, but something like A343/346 would do wonders.

update : scratch that. just realized newer GE-based 777s are ETOPS330 certified 4 months back.

You are right on both counts.... it was certified for ETOPS 330, but there is still a barrier to it use on the SYD-SCL route ( aside from the fact that QF haven't ordered any) ... CASA the regulatory authority in Australia seems to have no intention of permitting ETOPS 330 on routes to/from Australia.
 
Lufthansa
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Fri Mar 09, 2012 10:45 pm

Quoting qf002 (Reply 23):
2. Get over whatever barriers are blocking a relationship with CX and get in deep. Utilise CX's outstanding coverage through China as the main push for Chinese traffic. Perhaps look at ways to take a more commanding role in Aus-HKG traffic as part of this.

This is the issue. It might be time for an outright merger with CX. They of course would drive a very hard bargin as they don't need it, but QF very much does.

SQ is probably a more willing partner and singapore still works as a reasonable hub for Australia. SQ have more incentive too. Emirates is eating into their marketshare ex-australia much more than its going to be bothering Cathay.
A joint venture is appearing unlikely to work from the point of view nobody wants to give any of their existing market to it. Malaysia obviously is the carrier with the most need but MH has a long history of political issuse coming into it. My guess - without an outright merger there were too many vested interests. And as long as the Malaysian Gov is willing to throw money at the carrier they have no reason to change.

Point here is, to Make QF competitive again , somehow they need to get Paris, Rome, Athens, a few indian cities and a much deeper reach into asia back on the route map. Without a merger it's looking more and more unlikely.
 
alangirvan
Posts: 522
Joined: Wed Nov 08, 2000 2:13 pm

RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Sat Mar 10, 2012 12:37 am

I have not seen anything about whether Malaysian still wants to join OneWorld - it is supposed to be Qantas who is sponshring Malaysian into the alliance. If they are still going to join that still leaves some parts of the Qantas Asian strategy in place.

We might expect that Qantas would put QF on Malaysia Airlines flights around Asia, and flights to India. A pity that MH has dropped Rome, since that would have been an obvious codeshare for Qantas.

Tatters? So far Qantas would only have wasted a bit of Management time on meetings. My problem is that some people talk about an Asian strategy as though Asia is like Europe. Most Asian countries still have separate bilateral agreements with each other, so if the Qantas JV was based in KL, it would be able to do international flights if Malaysia has a open skies agreement with the country they want to fly to. Qantas already can do routes like SIN-HKG or SIN-BKK with Australian rights (it handed those routes over to Jetstar Asia). Would there really be a market for an A320 with big Business Class seats on SIN-HKG competing against SQ and CX who have rather good Business Class service on multiple flights per day with widebodies? Or from Singapore to just about anywhere?

I have seen that the attraction to Qantas is the ability to fly people between Indonesia and China, and for that market, perhaps it does not matter whether the hub is SIN or KUL. Well from reading reports we can see that some people are saying that Garuda is a much improved airline nowadays - surely able to provide very good Business Class service between Jakarta and Beijing/Shanghai. Would GA passengers really want to change planes at SIN? If they do, they already can use SQ.

Qantas got interested in this idea, because it must have seemed like a good idea to somebody. But, what did they want to do that is not already being done?
 
Sydscott
Posts: 3535
Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2003 11:50 am

RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Sat Mar 10, 2012 3:45 am

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 31):
Except that CX doesn't need to. Their strong brand, O&D focus, and geographic location shields them from bloodbaths both from LCCs and from EK.

CX isn't interested in a merger with QF. Aside from the regulatory factors, CX has built an awesome hub at HKG that they're constantly adding to and investing in. A QF investment would only distract them from that.

Quoting Lufthansa (Reply 34):
Point here is, to Make QF competitive again , somehow they need to get Paris, Rome, Athens, a few indian cities and a much deeper reach into asia back on the route map. Without a merger it's looking more and more unlikely.

All the news and information I've read about the Australia/India market tends to indicative that it's price sensitive and heavily leisure focused. Bearing that in mind I don't know why JQ, using a mix of Singaporean and Australian traffic rights, hasn't done what I've advocated for QF to do at HKG. That is re-time the current JQ services to be a unique bank of their own in Singapore and de-couple them from the late night QF departures to LHR and FRA. Then you could do things like;

AKL-SIN-BOM - A332
SYD-SIN-DEL - A332
MEL-SIN-PVG - A332
PER-SIN-BLR - A320
DRW-SIN-MAA - A320

These could easily be timed to coincide with a Jetstar Asia bank of flights for connections so that not only would you have connecting traffic from Australia and India, but you'd also have connections from Southeast Asia as well. Then if Jetstar were to get SIN-PEK rights you could swap out the AKL-SIN-BOM A332 for it and add say BNE-SIN or OOL-SIN to replace it. So the departure bank in Singapore would look something like;

AKL-SIN-PEK - A332
MEL-SIN-PVG - A332
SYD-SIN-DEL - A332
OOL-SIN-BOM - A332
PER-SIN-BLR - A320
DRW-SIN-MAA - A320

But again you'd have to de-couple JQ from the late night QF departure bank in order to better time the services arrival and departure from India.
 
User avatar
Zkpilot
Posts: 4655
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RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Sat Mar 10, 2012 7:40 am

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 22):
777 need to be part of the Qantas fleet for so many reasons that can't listed. Operating half empty 744 to FRA and Santiago, Chile is not a sound Business strategy. The only route that absolutely needs the 744ER is DFW. Maybe its time to buy Air New Zealand.

The 777 is needed absolutely. However FRA is almost always full not half empty as you imply. JNB and South America kinda do need a quad as there are massive ETOPs holes in the Southern Ocean. DFW would work better with a 77W, in fact that route alone makes a strong case for the 777 although a 77L might be better still. So really QF could either fly doglegs to JNB and Sth America with 777, or keep on 4x 744ER for those flights (and/or to substitute other types during mx etc). Perfect QF 77W destinations are: FRA, BNE-LAX, HKG-LHR, SFO, DXB. That would require about 9x77W.
Once upon a time yes, but QF can't afford NZ and certainly would not have a hope in hell of getting regulator approval on either side of the Tasman, not to mention NZ owning a large stake in VA.
 
koruman
Posts: 2179
Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2006 9:08 pm

RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Sat Mar 10, 2012 8:06 am

The refusal to get 77Ws has gone from stubborn to self-defeating, because you get absurd expectations now such as:

Quoting sydscott (Reply 15):
the current fleet plan for QF International which is to spend as little capital as possible on it until it makes some $$$ for itself.

Quite how a fleet of 763 and 744 aircraft is supposed to do that with their fuel burn at modern oil prices, with Israel increasingly likely to bomb Iran (for domestic political purposes, with a Knesset election likely later in 2012 and Netanyahu a shoe-in if he looks as decisive and courageous as his brother who died at Entebbe) really boggles the mind. That sort of plan really is a corporate suicide note.

I hold no strong political views with regard to the Middle East issue which I have just raised. But civil aviation will be massively affected both in terms of the Gulf carriers such as Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways and in terms of the cost of fuel.

If war in Iraq was viewed as likely to lower oil prices, any attack on Iran is likely to send them into the startosphere.

And I'm not sure how Qantas' fleet of 763 and 744 aircraft could remain in the air.
 
mikey72
Posts: 1439
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2009 1:31 pm

RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Sat Mar 10, 2012 9:11 am

Instead of the Virgin group causing damage, decline in service and overall hostilty (LHR) in whatever market they enter why don't they for once do the right thing for the health of the global airline industry and propose a merger with QF instead of just sucking out all the best bits ?

Where exactly does Virgin Australia fly to long-haul from Oz ?

Let me guess...LAX ?

That it ?

Typical

[Edited 2012-03-10 01:11:48]
 
koruman
Posts: 2179
Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2006 9:08 pm

RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Sat Mar 10, 2012 9:29 am

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 39):
Instead of the Virgin group causing damage, decline in service and overall hostilty (LHR) in whatever market they enter why don't they for once do the right thing for the health of the global airline industry and propose a merger with QF instead of just sucking out all the best bits ?

Where exactly does Virgin Australia fly to long-haul from Oz ?

Let me guess...LAX ?

That it ?

Typical

That's not at all the perception here in Australia.

They offer an excellent product in each class, but most importantly they offer a far superior global network to Qantas.

Virgin Australia's use of codeshares can get you from Brisbane to Manchester one-stop, or from Melbourne to Dublin, whereas Qantas' model is to funnel passengers through their hubs at SYD, LHR and LAX/DFW.

And whereas Qantas wanted to get into bed with Malaysian, Virgin codeshares with Singapore Airlines.

John Borghetti has done an amazing job of putting Virgin Australia in a comparable position to where he would have placed Qantas if a Board of union-bashers hadn't been determined to install an LCC CEO in the top job.

It wouldn't take much to make Qantas into a world-class airline again. But they can't with this fleet, this labour relations regime and this hub-based network.
 
TruemanQLD
Posts: 1346
Joined: Sat Feb 24, 2007 1:09 pm

RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Sat Mar 10, 2012 10:50 am

Quoting koruman (Reply 40):
but most importantly they offer a far superior global network to Qantas.

Ah ok, so then I could fly with DJ (and its partners in its 'far superior global network) in South America? Japan? South Africa? within Europe? What about flights from Hong Kong? Northern Europe? surely must within Russia? Wait what? None of these areas are currently covered by DJ? But i thought they 'offer a far superior global network'. Please, have some evidence before you make such statements.

However, I will give you it, QF doesn't offer 1 stop to MAN or some smaller destination in Europe. But QF does offer one stop to a lot of South American destinations (which are not covered at all by DJ), QF network with AA is a whole lot better than DJ current arrangement in North America (I would like to fly SYD-YYZ one stop, can DJ do anything about that?), QF network in Asia is much better than DJ's (even with an SQ partnership, it is still much easier to connect to any destination in China (through HKG), within Japan (with JL) etc. Also, if you want to fly within Southern Africa, QF network is pretty decent in comparison to DJ non existent one.

Quoting koruman (Reply 40):
And whereas Qantas wanted to get into bed with Malaysian, Virgin codeshares with Singapore Airlines.

QF and its board chose not to get 'into bed' with SQ when they joined One World (before AJ was even working at QF :O) so there was never going to be a possibility of that. And yes, I do not disagree, that MH is inferior to SQ, it is better than nothing, and will provide QF passengers with a new range of destinations and services.
 
StickShaker
Posts: 620
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:34 pm

RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Sat Mar 10, 2012 12:12 pm

Quoting TruemanQLD (Reply 41):
QF network in Asia is much better than DJ's

The QF network in Asia is abysmal for all Australian cities outside SYD - particularly for a carrier of the size of QF and a country who's future is heavily tied to the Asian region. In 2010 Australia's trade with East Asia stood at $300 billion, much of that from the resource state of WA yet QF have no direct link between PER and China. If you look at the QF timetable all you can get from PER is twice daily to SIN (mostly to serve LHR) and 3 times a week to HKG - a pathetic response to a strong demand which is all going via SQ, CX and CZ. Its the same story for other Australian cities thanks to the SYD centric mentality of QF which has all given market share to its competitors on a silver plate.

It wont take DJ long to better QF's efforts in Asia.



Regards,
StickShaker
 
koruman
Posts: 2179
Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2006 9:08 pm

RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Sat Mar 10, 2012 12:37 pm

Quoting TruemanQLD (Reply 41):
so then I could fly with DJ (and its partners in its 'far superior global network) in South America? Japan? South Africa? within Europe? What about flights from Hong Kong? Northern Europe? surely must within Russia? Wait what? None of these areas are currently covered by DJ? But i thought they 'offer a far superior global network'. Please, have some evidence before you make such statements.

However, I will give you it, QF doesn't offer 1 stop to MAN or some smaller destination in Europe. But QF does offer one stop to a lot of South American destinations

I would guess that passengers between northern England and Australia outstrip passengers between the whole of South America and Australia by a pretty wide margin. And Qantas surrenders them to Emirates, Etihad, Singapore Airlines and Virgin Australia.

Quoting TruemanQLD (Reply 41):
Also, if you want to fly within Southern Africa, QF network is pretty decent in comparison to DJ non existent one.

I recently booked BNE-SIN-JNB, and to be frank I'd rather do that than fly the QF/SA monopoly.
 
mikey72
Posts: 1439
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2009 1:31 pm

RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Sat Mar 10, 2012 1:38 pm

Quoting koruman (Reply 40):
That's not at all the perception here in Australia.

No it wouldn't be. Just as the Britsh public's perception of VS is that it is the same size as BA.

It's easy to come in and pull the rug from under a well established slow moving (yet still quality) legacy by targetting just their bread and butter routes. I don't call that providing competition.

Quoting koruman (Reply 40):
John Borghetti has done an amazing job of putting Virgin Australia in a comparable position to where he would have placed Qantas if a Board of union-bashers hadn't been determined to install an LCC CEO in the top job.

It wouldn't take much to make Qantas into a world-class airline again. But they can't with this fleet, this labour relations regime and this hub-based network.

Yep it's a shame.
 
TruemanQLD
Posts: 1346
Joined: Sat Feb 24, 2007 1:09 pm

RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Sat Mar 10, 2012 2:41 pm

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 42):

I never once said QF Asia network was fantastic, I was merely arguing that claiming that DJ's is better is far fetched. Also, its great to say 'DJ serves all these areas' but really, they have just joined up with other carriers to do the flying for them. And it will take a long time for DJ to establish the actual global network that QF has. What International routes does DJ currently fly (excluding trans-tasman):

BNE-LAX
SYD-LAX
MEL-LAX
SYD-AUH
Bali - BNE
Bali - PER
Phuket - PER

What international routes does QF currenty fly?

BNE - LAX
SYD - LAX
MEL - LAX
SYD-DFW-BNE-SYD
LAX-JFK
SYD-SIN
BNE-SIN
PER-SIN
MEL-SIN
ADL-SIN
SIN-LHR
SIN-FRA
SYD-PVG
SYD-HKG
MEL-HKG
BNE-HKG
PER-HKG
MNL-SYD
MNL-BNE
SYD-JNB
SYD-CGK
SYD-NRT
SYD-SCL
SYD-BKK

+ Routes from JQ (which, in terms of 'global network' is actually larger, by itself, than DJ's long haul network.)

That is a fair few more routes than DJ, and considering DJ has only 4 more long-haul aircraft on order, I will be surprised if they can add that many routes with another 4 aircraft. Also, great to argue 'oh well DJ has partnered up with SQ', but you cannot argue that your global network is huge when you basically let your carriers pick and drop of your passengers in your base country. At least QF gets them into every continent on the globe (except Antarctica) and then allows its partners to take them to their smaller destination that QF could not profitably serve (obviously exceptions with carriers that fly routes as well as QF i.e. CX, LAN, JL).

Also, this whole 'QF poorly serves PER/ADL' argument is wearing pretty thin, QF have been operating routes out of both of these airports internationally for many years now and have made a decision that expanding out of these hubs is not a priority as they are not as profitable as bigger hubs (i.e. SYD and MEL) as those hubs attract more tourists and business passengers. Note, I didn't say not-profitable, but merely that QF has evidently decided there resources are better spent on the bigger hubs.


Quoting koruman (Reply 43):
I would guess that passengers between northern England and Australia outstrip passengers between the whole of South America and Australia by a pretty wide margin. And Qantas surrenders them to Emirates, Etihad, Singapore Airlines and Virgin Australia.

Maybe, however, unless the passengers is flying directly to SYD (and as some of us like to point out, the passenger may want to go elsewhere) then you will be flying with Etihad and not, at any point (until domestic) are you flying with Virgin Australia. As far as I know (and I may be wrong here) DJ will not be making much money off having passengers fly on Etihad from MAN-AUH-BNE. They will make money off the domestic flights however, I realise that.

Also, if this whole new expansion thing is going so swimmingly for DJ, why hasn't BNE-AUH started up? What about proposed BNE-HKG services? What about MEL-JNB. Sure there are reasons for all of them not operating, and most are valid, but how is that any different to QF cancelling some routes?
 
IndianicWorld
Posts: 3437
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2001 11:32 am

RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Sat Mar 10, 2012 3:13 pm

Some just seem to think it's all so easy.

The main challenge to any growth for QF is it's cost base, and that will not change any time soon. Unions have too much clout in this airline and will purely see any move for efficiencies as a threat. Every move QF makes is a minefield that very few would be able to overcome with any joy.

For the millionth time, the 777 is not going to end up at QF so those wanting to go on and on about it as the 'saviour' would be best to move on. The 787 is QFs future weapon. Simple as that.

Lastly, like it or not, QF is not unlike many other carriers out there, in that the LCC is taking over some former legacy roles and the full service offering will likely be a smaller but strategically targeted part of the operation. The industry continues to evolve and every step taken has it's challenges.
 
koruman
Posts: 2179
Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2006 9:08 pm

RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Sun Mar 11, 2012 1:09 am

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 46):
The main challenge to any growth for QF is it's cost base, and that will not change any time soon. Unions have too much clout in this airline and will purely see any move for efficiencies as a threat. Every move QF makes is a minefield that very few would be able to overcome with any joy.

Maybe, but in terms of long-haul the cost-base problem is fuel efficiency, not crewing costs or ground staff costs.

As I wrote earlier, I think the Israeli government will probably end up striking at Iran this year. This is no place for a discussion of the rights and wrongs or motives for such a move.

But the consequence is easy to predict - given that

1) 20% of the world's oil passes through Iran's Straits of Hormuz,
2) Iran is the world's 4th biggest oil producer, and sells much of its oil to China.
3) The economic consequence of the 1973 Yom Kippur war (which Israel didn't actually start) was the 1973 Oil Crisis, which saw oil prices QUADRUPLE which in civil aviation terms killed Concorde stone dead.

This means that Qantas' management needs to understand that there is a very significant possibility that before the end of 2012 oil prices will rise from today's $108 per barrel beyond the record peak of $145 to somewhere around $200 per barrel.

No airline would enjoy oil prices multiplying again in the aftermath of Middle Eastern conflict. But Qantas is almost uniquely badly-placed to survive this with its long-haul fleet of 763, 744 and 388 aircraft. If they choose to wait until the 787 is delivered there might not be an airline left.

I understand that many of the contributors to A.net are American, and that it's unpopular to discuss the likely economic consequences of conflict in the Middle East because it's somehow viewed as taking sides with the bad guys. But how can we discuss Qantas' international prospects without acknowledging the colossal risk to Qantas posed by an Israeli attack on Iran?

Leigh Clifford and Alan Joyce are well within their rights to want to control Qantas' staff costs. But they need to understand that within the next few weeks or months there may be military events which double or treble the cost of fuel. And I see no evidence that they have contingency plans for that, and as I watch Glasgow Rangers lurch into bankruptcy and recall Ansett/Air NZ's collapse immediately after 9/11, I wonder whether an Israeli attack on Iran might quickly force Joyce and Clifford to declare Qantas International to be insolvent.
 
thegeek
Posts: 1334
Joined: Mon Nov 26, 2007 7:20 am

RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Sun Mar 11, 2012 2:04 am

Re:777
Why are we still having this conversation?

That offers:
- 3-5 year wait to actually receive the frames.
- Additional training costs due to adding a new type
- A fuel inefficient aircraft in 10 years time, compared to the 787
- Inferior CASM to A380
- Additional capacity at a time when QF can't find routes for its existing planes and is cancelling/deferring orders of more efficient types (787/A380).
- Few routes it is suitable for within QF

Quoting Zkpilot (Reply 37):
Perfect QF 77W destinations are: FRA, BNE-LAX, HKG-LHR, SFO, DXB. That would require about 9x77W.

Why not:
FRA: A380/744
HKG-LHR: A380 from SYD.
SFO: 787
DXB: avoid
BNE-LAX - Probably stay 744 but I'll give you that one.


-
I actually think the far bigger failure within QF was to not order A332s earlier.
 
koruman
Posts: 2179
Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2006 9:08 pm

RE: QF Asian Strategy In Tatters

Sun Mar 11, 2012 2:19 am

Quoting thegeek (Reply 48):
Re:777
Why are we still having this conversation?

That offers:
- 3-5 year wait to actually receive the frames.
- Additional training costs due to adding a new type
- A fuel inefficient aircraft in 10 years time, compared to the 787
- Inferior CASM to A380

Which all makes perfect sense for Sydney.

But Qantas' primary problem is that long-haul it is getting crucified out of Brisbane, Melbourne and Perth, which together have double Sydney's outbound market (not inbound low-yield leisure, admittedly).

A380s for Perth and Brisbane are pie in the sky. And in Queensland Qantas simply can't compete with the Asian carriers, and struggles to keep up with Virgin Australia and Air NZ across the Pacific.

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