How are other star carriers preparing for TAM's departure to OneWorld? Is LH, LX and others adjusting schedules, frequencies, capacities, etc...? Would we see any route announcements soon? When would we see the official announcement?

JJ never really committed to *A in the first place. It was exactly 3 months to the day after they joined that they announced the takeover by LAN, which suggests a degree of bad faith in the first place in going ahead with the accession to *A.


I suspect the only thing that *A members can really do is to bring Avianca Brasil into the group, but clearly that will be no real substitute for the network they will lose when JJ goes. As GRU is overwhelmingly important in its own right as a business destination I doubt we will see too much adjustment on ops by *A members. Probably more of their efforts will go on behind closed doors to try to ensure that TP stays out of the hands of IAG/OW.

Quoting eastern023 (Thread starter): How are other star carriers preparing for TAM's departure to OneWorld? Is LH, LX and others adjusting schedules, frequencies, capacities, etc...? Would we see any route announcements soon? When would we see the official announcement?

TAM has not officially announced their intent to leave star, rumors are OW and they have been invited to join OW but still nothing official.

-m

  

Like any alliance members come and go, but we still have the 3 three, I doubt they will do a whole lot if JJ leaves

Quoting eastern023 (Thread starter): How are other star carriers preparing for TAM's departure to OneWorld? Is LH, LX and others adjusting schedules, frequencies, capacities, etc...? Would we see any route announcements soon? When would we see the official announcement?

In the first 2 months of 2012 TP transported 18% more passengers between Brazil and Europe than for the same time last year. Last October LH launched service to GIG, and GRU is very likely to be upgauged to 748 or even A380. The interline agreements within S.America are likely to remain even after TAM leaves *A. For example, today TP sells tickets to SCL in an agreement with LAN and I don't see that changing.

[Edited 2012-03-27 16:01:00]

Quoting UnitedTristar (Reply 2): TAM has not officially announced their intent to leave star, rumors are OW and they have been invited to join OW but still nothing official.

Everybody on this forum understand that nothing is "official" yet, but c'mon the writing is on the wall and Star carriers must have contingency plans. Are we still gonna beat that dead horse some more? All the terminal consolidation and another moves (plus the chilean court ruling) indicate the move to OneWorld.
Some of the contingency plans are: Taca-Avianca and Copa to star, codesharing, etc. But there must be other plans. TAM was the feeder for LH, LX, TK, etc. for SCL, ASU, MVD and EZE to a much smaller degree. Now that feeder will be gone, unless even when TAM leaves star agreements remain in place (Is this even a possibility) This is why is "expected " for another European "Star" carrier to start SCL. Maybe LX, maybe LH? who knows...as you like to say.."is not officially announced"...

Rudy from IAD

Well I think this is going to provide further impetus for NZ to expedite routes to South America - AKL to GRU, either direct or via EZE and linking with Avianca-TACA and Copa flights within South America and offering Asian and Australian links to passengers from South America.

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 6): NZ to expedite routes to South America - AKL to GRU, either direct or via EZE and linking with Avianca-TACA and Copa flights within South America

NZ would rather fly to LIM, where AV/TA has a hub to many more South American (SCL, COR, GYE, UIO, etc.) and Central American (PTY, SJO, etc.) destinations. And if LH or LX would fly to LIM, that would be even an interesting alternative to get to NZ.

This is subject to aircraft availability: Has NZ the appropriate aircraft for the flight over South Pacific? Does LX or LH have the aircraft for the rotation ZRH resp. FRA to LIM?
Would this flight provide enough revenue with already a lot of airlines flying from Europe to LIM? And as a replacement for the departure of JJ, LIM would not be well suited as a transfer airport...

[Edited 2012-03-28 03:43:38]

Would Star look for another SA carrier? Who could fill TAM's current role as a major Brazilian carrier? GOL? Aerolines Aregentina?

Quoting penguins (Reply 8): Aerolines Aregentina?

Already picked up by Skyteam

Quoting penguins (Reply 8): Would Star look for another SA carrier? Who could fill TAM's current role as a major Brazilian carrier? GOL? Aerolines Aregentina?

The pickings for major alliance partners is slim, which is why Star went after AV/Taca. For AV the natural partner seemed Skyteam with Delta in the USA and AF in Europe. AV is an odd fit for Star but was the last major airline group not having alliance membership. Star does little for AV in the USA or Spain, its two main international markets.

AV doesn't fly to Houston, Newark( it does JFK) or Chicago. AV has more connectivity with Air Canada which flies to BOG and soon AV will fly to Toronto. LH is once again flying to BOG after being away 10 years.

The real gem for the Star Alliance in Latin America is Panama, Copa's "Hub of the Americas" is great for anyting within range of a 737-700, GRU and EZE included. Copa needs to spread its wings beyond the 737NG to 787's. Europe and Asia need to be flown to by Copa. Lufthansa should fly to PTY.

Repacling TAM and Sao Paulo are next to impossible for Star since these days Brazil doesn't have a second international airline flying outside the Continent.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 4): TAM leaves *A. For example, today TP sells tickets to SCL in an agreement with LAN and I don't see that changing.

Sure and the bags are intelined accordingly. We are talking codeshare, it becomes hard when a carrier leaves to a rival alliance,

Quoting penguins (Reply 8): Would Star look for another SA carrier?

All meaningful carriers in South America are already in an alliance or well into it. Copa, Avianca-Taca to Star. LAN is obviously in OneWorld and now TAM. Skyteam got the scraps with AR. There is really no other carrier of importance left in the region.

There's still Gol for Brazilian and short-haul international connections though, but general consensus is that they will join SkyTeam.

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 1): I suspect the only thing that *A members can really do is to bring Avianca Brasil into the group, but clearly that will be no real substitute for the network they will lose when JJ goes.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 10): Repacling TAM and Sao Paulo are next to impossible for Star since these days Brazil doesn't have a second international airline flying outside the Continent.

Quoting eastern023 (Reply 11): All meaningful carriers in South America are already in an alliance or well into it. Copa, Avianca-Taca to Star. LAN is obviously in OneWorld and now TAM. Skyteam got the scraps with AR. There is really no other carrier of importance left in the region.

Although O6 is not TAM, I would bet that as soon as TAM announces it is leaving *Alliance, the process of bringing them into Star will begin. *Alliance doesn't need an international carrier in Brazil, just a domestic to start and O6 seems to have a decent network in Brazil. Avianca Brasil could add some regional destinations from GRU like SCL, COR, GYE, UIO, EZE, etc. maybe eventually doing some long haul. I could see UA and LH and others partner with O6 before they are officially in Star...didn't UA partner with TAM before they joined Star...

Quoting SuperCaravelle (Reply 12): O6 seems to have a decent network in Brazil

How do evaluate that? I only see a carrier with 150 daily departures.

Quoting united787 (Reply 13): Avianca Brasil could add some regional destinations from GRU like SCL

I thought SCL-GRU was restricted due to GRU slots to new carriers. Not many available now, especially not a the right "connecting hours." This is why I keep thinking that another "Star" European will go to SCL and not thru GRU. This is what I think it may happen after TAM bolts Star:

LH FRA-GIG-SCL or FRA-EZE-SCL (I wish it was FRA-SCL on a 346, but don't think the route has the pants for a third SCL-Europe nonstop)
BA LHR-EZE-SCL (This is more wishful thinking than anything else. We'll see LAN at LHR before we see BA back at SCL

Quoting eastern023 (Reply 5): Now that feeder will be gone, unless even when TAM leaves star agreements remain in place (Is this even a possibility)

Not only is that a possibility, it is already being done around the world. More and more carriers are codesharing with carriers outside their alliance. If it makes sense to do so, carriers will do it.

Quoting penguins (Reply 8): Would Star look for another SA carrier? Who could fill TAM's current role as a major Brazilian carrier? GOL? Aerolines Aregentina?

I'm not sure it's that big of a gap to fill to begin with. Keep in mind that TAM doesn't currently serve any *A hub with the exception of FRA, so it's not like *A will miss it when they leave.

As far as connections in S.America, yes there's a small problem there but not as big as it seems, IMO. From Europe, rather than offering connections at GRU they can funnel a lot of traffic thru LIS to the 10 destinations already served by TP, and probably more to come soon. You're seeing that already based on the significant traffic increase that TP is experiencing. I know Brazil is a big place but 10 destinations served from LIS proably accounts for the vast majority of traffic already. For the rest, interline agreements can't be underestimated.
From the US, UA/CO already cover the major destinations in S.America, complemented by Copa and AV/Taca.
The big gaps to fill are EZE and SCL from Europe, IMO.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 10): Repacling TAM and Sao Paulo are next to impossible for Star since these days Brazil doesn't have a second international airline flying outside the Continent.

See above. I'm not convinced that is an issue to begin with. I think TAM will be worse served in Europe for example, than *A will be in S.America. LHR is very limited for growth and I'm not sure that IB will be very welcoming of increased competition from their hub, if one is to assume that LATAM's European growth will occur at MAD.

Quoting eastern023 (Reply 11): Sure and the bags are intelined accordingly. We are talking codeshare, it becomes hard when a carrier leaves to a rival alliance

I've never had any problems with interlining across alliances. From a customer point of view it's no different than a codeshare, except for the FF perks. Codesharing is sometime overestimated. Take SQ for example, they don't code share much with their other *A patners, especially UA   EK don't codeshare with AA but I've heard that they funnel a ton of interline traffic thru AA in the US.

Everyone seems to be forgeting about Azul which is the most likely candidate. The airline is still new and still growing. With a focus city in GIG and a hub in VCP (served by TP from LIS), it makes the most sense to me. There have been rumors of a code-share agreement between TP and Azul ever since TP started flying to VCP.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 17): so it's not like *A will miss it when they leave.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 17): The big gaps to fill are EZE and SCL from Europe, IMO.

I don't think they'll be missed by the carriers that do not codeshare with but they will be missed by LH, LX, TK and others that feed at GRU. You said it, SCL & EZE are the biggest "Star Loosers" but also ASU, MVD and some other small cities as well.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 17): Everyone seems to be forgeting about Azul which is the most likely candidate.

We are not forgetting about it. How big is Azul? Although great potential TAM is leaving (expected) before the end of the year so Azul is not a carrier of importance (again: for now) on this discussion.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 17): I've never had any problems with interlining across alliances. From a customer point of view it's no different than a codeshare, except for the FF perks. Codesharing is sometime overestimated. Take SQ for example, they don't code share much with their other *A patners, especially UA EK don't codeshare with AA but I've heard that they funnel a ton of interline traffic thru AA in the US.

Understood. But alliances and codesharing seems to be the name of the game these days.

Quoting eastern023 (Reply 18): I don't think they'll be missed by the carriers that do not codeshare with but they will be missed by LH, LX, TK and others that feed at GRU. You said it, SCL & EZE are the biggest "Star Loosers" but also ASU, MVD and some other small cities as well.

Does anyone know how much feeding these airlines do at GRU?
Doesn't LH fly to BOG? All of S.America can be reached via BOG instead of GRU. LH also fly to EZE, right? So LX and TK can offer connections thru FRA.
Again, I'm not convinced that TAM is as important to *A as some people are making it sound. There are viable alternatives to reach most markets in S.America.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 19): Does anyone know how much feeding these airlines do at GRU? Doesn't LH fly to BOG? All of S.America can be reached via BOG instead of GRU. LH also fly to EZE, right? So LX and TK can offer connections thru FRA. Again, I'm not convinced that TAM is as important to *A as some people are making it sound. There are viable alternatives to reach most markets in S.America.

That's because you're reducing South America to a handful of markets.

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 20): That's because you're reducing South America to a handful of markets.

Well, if you serve the ten biggest destinations in Brazil via TP, serve Colombia and surroundings by flying to BOG and having AV, serve EZE and SCL and the biggest cities of the other South American countries (Lima, Quito, Guayaquil, Ascuncion et al) you don't really need a feeder all that much anymore. Sure, it would be better to have one, but it wouldn't be catastrophic to not have one either.

Its the way Emirates does business too. They don't fly to Nuremberg or Bilbao or even Lyon, but by offering connections between many of the biggest cities they are still very competitive. Basically you serve the market "any European / American town -> bigger South American destinations and vice versa in up to one stop" which is a big market, not much smaller than the market "Any EU or America town -> any S. American town in up to two stops".

Quoting SuperCaravelle (Reply 24): Well, if you serve the ten biggest destinations in Brazil via TP

You're basically reducing the market to Europe-Brazil only.

Quoting eastern023 (Reply 18): We are not forgetting about it. How big is Azul? Although great potential TAM is leaving (expected) before the end of the year so Azul is not a carrier of importance (again: for now) on this discussion.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 17): Everyone seems to be forgeting about Azul which is the most likely candidate. The airline is still new and still growing. With a focus city in GIG and a hub in VCP (served by TP from LIS), it makes the most sense to me. There have been rumors of a code-share agreement between TP and Azul ever since TP started flying to VCP.

Azul and VCP cannot be considered serious at least for now. VCP doesn't even have fingers, and Azul is a really great airline but it can't do the same JJ did, they only fly E-jets to a handful of markets. G3, if not going to Skyteam, seams to be the best choice.

GRU and GIG are terrible hub airports. Overcrowded, crumbling, poorly designed, prone to delays. In many ways they resemble BOM and DEL. Nominally the biggest hubs in their country, but given half a chance, most pax will fly directly out of the country and transit another hub. In this case, the failings of Brazilian av infrastructure are what powers TPs business - LIS is the DXB of Brasil (and for those with a US visa, MIA).

Ergo, JJ just isn't as important as you might think.

-G

Quoting gabrielz (Reply 27): GRU and GIG are terrible hub airports. Overcrowded, crumbling, poorly designed, prone to delays. In many ways they resemble BOM and DEL. Nominally the biggest hubs in their country, but given half a chance, most pax will fly directly out of the country and transit another hub. In this case, the failings of Brazilian av infrastructure are what powers TPs business - LIS is the DXB of Brasil (and for those with a US visa, MIA).

The new prize for Brazil is TAP Air Portugal. Who will pay a Los Angeles Dodger price for this unique franchise ?

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 28): The new prize for Brazil is TAP Air Portugal.

The "air" has been dropped jfk777.

But your statement is correct.

AV Brazil seems to be looking for 50 new planes according to another thread. This is one of the midterm solutions after JJ is joining 1W.
Stars only problem is Brazil feeding plus SCL and LIM to Europe
LIM can be connected to FRA by AVTA or LH. SCL via EZE or LH to LIM.
Argentina is connected to Europe by daily LH and to the US by daily UACO.
Everything else is done by AVTA and CM.

All of Brazil from BOG?
From Europe. Between TP, LH, LX, TK, AV, Brazil and S.America are pretty well covered from Europe.
Hopefully we'll see one of them add SCL soon  
From N.America, Brazil is a little less covered but GRU was always a really bad hub for connections from NA due to its extreme southern location. Hopefully something will change there and UA will add a few routes from the US to the Northeast.

Quoting SuperCaravelle (Reply 24): Well, if you serve the ten biggest destinations in Brazil via TP, serve Colombia and surroundings by flying to BOG and having AV, serve EZE and SCL and the biggest cities of the other South American countries (Lima, Quito, Guayaquil, Ascuncion et al) you don't really need a feeder all that much anymore. Sure, it would be better to have one, but it wouldn't be catastrophic to not have one either.

   Apparently I'm not the only one who thinks that way  
Nevertheless lets not forget that if you have to travel between 2 points, alliances don't really factor in. Most people will take either the best schedule or the best fare, or a combination of both, regardless of alliances. So access to S.America via GRU is still very much an option for *A customers. They'll just have to do one of the legs with another alliance carrier. In fact, fares across alliances tend to be cheaper than single alliance fares.

[Edited 2012-03-31 12:21:54 by SA7700]