ZuluAlpha
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Mon Apr 16, 2012 10:41 am

Quoting qf002 (Reply 149):
A return to NRT at some stage would also be nice, but I doubt it will happen...

Maybe with Jetstar, or Jetstar Japan ?
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qf002
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Mon Apr 16, 2012 10:57 am

Quoting ZuluAlpha (Reply 150):
Maybe with Jetstar, or Jetstar Japan ?

That's probably more likely than mainline... But RedQ is probably the long term plan for serving Japan from PER.
 
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RyanairGuru
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Mon Apr 16, 2012 11:51 am

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 147):
That Hong Kong flight should be daily though.

Ditto BNE
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QF175
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Mon Apr 16, 2012 12:00 pm

On the subject of Perth, Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation's (CAPA) article today on Kenya Airways makes mention that the Airline has a desire to serve every inhabited continent over the coming years and in FY2016/2017 plans to introduce thrice weekly 787 services to Perth.

http://www.centreforaviation.com/ana...-inhabited-continent-by-2017-71784

Certainly something to look forward to (granted plans, strategies and market conditions can change over a period which may result in services not commencing) and a change to their previous plan to serve Sydney.

Note this is an old article from 2010
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Mon Apr 16, 2012 1:51 pm

Anybody in QF know why 581 is cancelled every Tuesday from May to July.

581 usually is operated by 744 VH-OJD and is normally pretty full. This would presumably put capacity pressure on all the other flights 565 575 577.

Maybe with 744s being retired Tuesay may be maintenance day???
 
ben175
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Mon Apr 16, 2012 4:16 pm

Quoting QF175 (Reply 153):
On the subject of Perth, Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation's (CAPA) article today on Kenya Airways makes mention that the Airline has a desire to serve every inhabited continent over the coming years and in FY2016/2017 plans to introduce thrice weekly 787 services to Perth.

http://www.centreforaviation.com/ana...-inhabited-continent-by-2017-71784

Certainly something to look forward to (granted plans, strategies and market conditions can change over a period which may result in services not commencing) and a change to their previous plan to serve Sydney.

Note this is an old article from 2010

Wow! I know it's four years down the track and things can change... but it would be great to see PER develop itself as a hub into Africa. SA does really well out of JNB so i'm sure KQ will be successful. Perhaps Virgin can jump into bed with a few African airlines to stimulate more demand.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Tue Apr 17, 2012 6:20 am

Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 154):
Anybody in QF know why 581 is cancelled every Tuesday from May to July.

581 usually is operated by 744 VH-OJD and is normally pretty full.

Speculation: Tue is a pretty low demand day. Is it usually full on a Tue, and it's return flight 582?

BTW, the timetable shows that it is to be operated by 767s and A330s when I looked in June.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Tue Apr 17, 2012 7:07 am

Quoting qf002 (Reply 145):
Maybe thats because it's irrelevant what QF is up to when discussing Middle Easter and Asian airlines? QF is still a big player out of PER, double daily A333's to SIN and three weekly A333's to HKG.

Seemed like more of an international PER growth topic rather than one focusing on Middle Eastern and Asian carriers (MK being neither). The point is, noting the above growth, the fact that QF international isn't growing in PER, right now, with how Perth has been growing over the last few years (while in fact cutting NRT) says a lot. Well actually, not really anything new that the CEO hasn't been saying for some time.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Tue Apr 17, 2012 7:54 am

BNE had another good growth month with INT up 11.1% and DOM up 7.1% Total growth of 7.9% for March.

Average growth for the first quarter of 2012 is 9%.

If things continue even at slower rate, then 22 million pax is a possibility for 2012 calendar year.
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Tue Apr 17, 2012 8:03 am

Quoting eaglefarm4 (Reply 158):

BNE had another good growth month with INT up 11.1% and DOM up 7.1% Total growth of 7.9% for March

With numbers like this, I wonder how long before we see an A380 kissing the tarmac up here.
 
ZuluAlpha
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Tue Apr 17, 2012 9:10 am

Quoting ZKOKQ (Reply 159):
With numbers like this, I wonder how long before we see an A380 kissing the tarmac up here

We all wait with eagerness for that to happen as an RPT service, not just as a diversion due SYD weather
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Tue Apr 17, 2012 10:10 am

Quoting ZuluAlpha (Reply 160):
We all wait with eagerness for that to happen as an RPT service, not just as a diversion due SYD weather

Pity EK's claim over 4 years ago that 'A380s would begin to BNE with 18months' never came true
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Tue Apr 17, 2012 10:26 am

Quoting TruemanQLD (Reply 161):
Pity EK's claim over 4 years ago that 'A380s would begin to BNE with 18months' never came true

It'll only be a matter of time before EK's A380's are at BNE, and a question of when, not if. Off topic, but it will be amazing to see 3x EK A380's parked up at AKL
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Tue Apr 17, 2012 3:28 pm

QF de underestimated the PER market. Their strategy was always to Sydney orientated and other markets have suffered. The same might be able to say about Adelaide in ten years.

AS for PER-NAR that route is dead. Qantas, have been keen for years to cut it but state government pressure kept it. I doubt that even a Jetstar service will get the go ahead.
 
IndianicWorld
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Wed Apr 18, 2012 1:26 am

^^ Really? That's a pity that Perth-Nare (Columbia) isn't being taken more seriously :lol:
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Wed Apr 18, 2012 4:36 am

Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 154):
Anybody in QF know why 581 is cancelled every Tuesday from May to July.

581 usually is operated by 744 VH-OJD and is normally pretty full. This would presumably put capacity pressure on all the other flights 565 575 577.

Maybe with 744s being retired Tuesay may be maintenance day???
Quoting thegeek (Reply 156):
Speculation: Tue is a pretty low demand day. Is it usually full on a Tue, and it's return flight 582?

BTW, the timetable shows that it is to be operated by 767s and A330s when I looked in June.

With all the equipment and route changes the SYD-PER-SYD B744 services will cease... I can not recall the exact dates but I believe May 2012...

Qantas have released final reports into the uncontained engine failure near SFO...

ATSB releases final investigation report - the ATSB has released their final investigation report into the uncontained engine failure near San Francisco airport in August 2010. The report finds that this incident was caused by a turbine blade failure. Rolls-Royce subsequently instructed airlines to replace a related part with a stronger version. Qantas has fast-tracked this program and within 12 months all Qantas RB211 engines will be compliant with this guidance. Prior to the incident, the engine had been maintained appropriately according to manufacturer requirements. Following the incident the Qantas flight crew shut down the engine and returned to San Franciso, in line with procedure. There was no safety risk at any time.

EK413

[Edited 2012-04-17 21:39:29]
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Thu Apr 19, 2012 12:09 am

Quoting byronicle6 (Reply 162):
It'll only be a matter of time before EK's A380's are at BNE, and a question of when, not if.

Agreed, not if, but when... but when can be a VERY long time. Kinda like WHEN is EY going to increase AUH-SIN-BNE to daily- yeah press release after press release spouts the same optimism, but it hasn't happened yet... believe it when you see it.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Thu Apr 19, 2012 12:18 am

Quoting eta unknown (Reply 166):

Agreed, not if, but when... but when can be a VERY long time. Kinda like WHEN is EY going to increase AUH-SIN-BNE to daily- yeah press release after press release spouts the same optimism, but it hasn't happened yet... believe it when you see it.

I agree.

The usual PR spin will say one thing but in reality I wouldn't read too much into it until an official announcement is made, and even more so, when the plane arrives at the airport.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Thu Apr 19, 2012 2:57 am

I was going to start a new thread, but thought it best to ask it in here instead.

What do we all feel is the future of aviation in this country? More consolidation, increased competition or a vastly different playing field in a few years?
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Thu Apr 19, 2012 4:15 am

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 168):
What do we all feel is the future of aviation in this country? More consolidation, increased competition or a vastly different playing field in a few years?

IMHO we are going to end up effectively with a two airline economy in the Australia/New Zealand C.E.R. area, the Qantas Group and the Virgin Australia/Air New Zealand Group. Unlike the last time there will be a fair number of other operators around the edge eg Rex, NJS, Alliance etc, but the two big groups will dominate.

Gemuser

[Edited 2012-04-18 21:26:30]
DC23468910;B72172273373G73873H74374475275376377L77W;A319 320321332333343;BAe146;C402;DHC6;F27;L188;MD80MD85
 
skyhawkmatthew
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Thu Apr 19, 2012 4:26 am

Quoting gemuser (Reply 169):
we are going to end up effectively with a two airline economy in the Australia/New Zealand C.E.R. area

I agree. Within Australia itself, I think we'll end up fairly close to what we had in the days of the Two-Airline policy: the two giants, QF and VA/DJ holding about 50/50 share of the premium market. However, we will have the addition of Jetstar and the much smaller Tiger feeding on the lower end of the market. Air Australia has proved again, as Compass did a couple of times before, that the two-major-airline duopoly situation is not about to change.

It will be interesting to see what happens regionally, with Virgin getting more and more ATRs: will they start to compete with QantasLink and Rex further south, or stick to (mainly) Queensland? I can't see it ending well for Rex if Virgin decide to enter their markets.
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IndianicWorld
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Thu Apr 19, 2012 4:26 am

Quoting gemuser (Reply 169):
IMHO we are going to end up effectively with a two airline economy in the Australia/New Zealand C.E.R. area, the Qantas Group and the Virgin Australia/Air New Zealand Group. Unlike the last time there will be other operators around the edge eg Rex, NJS, Alliance etc, but the two big groups will dominate.

Similar thinking to mine.

I can see TT and XR becoming part of a VA/NZ group, with SQ owning a share of the airline (Ansett days revisited).
QF/JQ will continue to focus on a few select destinations, and target Asia as its main profit hotspot.
I can see Rex, Alliance and possibly another carrier joining up to strengthen their ops.

I mainly see continued consolidation, with a few niche players remaining on the outside.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Thu Apr 19, 2012 4:29 am

Quoting skyhawkmatthew (Reply 170):
It will be interesting to see what happens regionally, with Virgin getting more and more ATRs: will they start to compete with QantasLink and Rex further south, or stick to (mainly) Queensland? I can't see it ending well for Rex if Virgin decide to enter their markets.

Same here. Rex are not really doing huge things now, and as their fleet of ageing Saabs will need replacing soon, its even harder to see them go it alone for years to come.

What could Rex replace their fleet with anyway? Theres not really that much out there in that size range these days.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Thu Apr 19, 2012 4:49 am

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 172):
What could Rex replace their fleet with anyway?

In terms of 30 seaters I'm not sure that they could replace it with anything. Does BBD still produce the DH8-200?

Otherwise it would have to be the 300 or ATR42-500.

I guess the question is whether that would be too big for some of their markets, making them unviable going forward. That would be a sad scenario (even if only a few towns are dropped) but that is the reality these days. It is the same Stateside with, for example, questions about what will happen to the inter-California UA/OO flying once the EMB-120s start to be put out to pasture.
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skyhawkmatthew
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Thu Apr 19, 2012 4:53 am

IIRC the Dash 8-300 isn't being produced any more either. I agree that many of their markets can't support anything bigger than the Saab/8-200 - so I suppose we will see Rex stick it out with the Saabs for as long as they can (they recently finished upgrading their entire fleet to the B-model, didn't they?), and then start looking for late-build Q200s to replace them. What else is there in the 30-40 seat bracket?
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IndianicWorld
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Thu Apr 19, 2012 5:23 am

Another thing that really has me interested is what people feel will happen to AVV?

With MEL's planned major domestic terminal expansion, JQ's schedule reductions, TT's cancellation of flights from the airport and the new rail link a few years away yet, what future does AVV have? The MEL terminal expansion certainly will take away some of the capacity pressures JQ and TT have there currently.

It's certainly an interesting time in aviation in Australia, and around the world.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Thu Apr 19, 2012 6:36 am

I think AVV will die off in the next few years.

It was initially established as Jetstar's only Melbourne airport as Qantas didn't want to cannibalise their own operations into MEL. Tiger started their operation there because it was cheap, but moved to MEL pretty quickly: people just don't want to drive all the way to AVV when now you can get essentially the same fares out of Tullamarine. Of course, the situation has changed quite a bit since JQ's inception, and JQ now operates mostly to MEL as well. I don't see a future for AVV - it's just so inconvenient and, as Indianic said, MEL will shortly be more than capable of handling the load without the need for a second airport.

That said, I do like JQ's service to AVV: it's a super convenient, cheap way to get to the airshow!   (Though, if they pulled out completely, would we see QF do an airshow charter from SYD again like they did pre-JQ?)
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IndianicWorld
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Thu Apr 19, 2012 6:46 am

Quoting skyhawkmatthew (Reply 176):
I think AVV will die off in the next few years.

I fear the same. The next few years could be a big challenge for them.

Quoting skyhawkmatthew (Reply 176):
It was initially established as Jetstar's only Melbourne airport as Qantas didn't want to cannibalise their own operations into MEL.

Semi true. They utilised both MEL and AVV, with AVV used for routes that already had QF service from MEL (SYD, BNE then ADL and PER).

Quoting skyhawkmatthew (Reply 176):
people just don't want to drive all the way to AVV when now you can get essentially the same fares out of Tullamarine.

This is the main issue. The landscape changed once TT arrived into Australia, and JQ have just made their defensive moves around that since.

AVV is still very convenient for Geelong, Bellarine Peninsula Surf Coast and outer Western Melbourne (Werribee), which is a population in the +500K racket, but just how much demand that actually is is another story. JQ have seemingly pulled down their schedule to accomodate this segment, relying less on Melbourne travellers, which is likely a good thing, but just how sustainable that is will be tested.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Thu Apr 19, 2012 6:58 am

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 177):
AVV is still very convenient for Geelong, Bellarine Peninsula Surf Coast and outer Western Melbourne

I can see limited service remaining at AVV as it stands now - similar to NTL - but due to its greater proximity to MEL it misses out on the other regional operations that NTL is able to support. The lack of continued service from TT, or an entry from VA/DJ makes me think that on the whole, MEL is simply too close to allow AVV to grow as its own entity.
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IndianicWorld
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Thu Apr 19, 2012 7:03 am

Quoting skyhawkmatthew (Reply 178):
I can see limited service remaining at AVV as it stands now - similar to NTL - but due to its greater proximity to MEL it misses out on the other regional operations that NTL is able to support.

Good example.

It will always be in the shadow of MEL, but the sad part is if it was in the South-East it would likely have had a very big future. The Penguin Express service, and able to tap into a larger population base.

Quoting skyhawkmatthew (Reply 178):
The lack of continued service from TT, or an entry from VA/DJ makes me think that on the whole, MEL is simply too close to allow AVV to grow as its own entity.

Fully agree.

was interesting to hear that VA/DJ had held discussions with the airport a while back, but that never made sense to me.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Thu Apr 19, 2012 7:46 am

Qld intrastate travel booming

Source

Quote:
Brisbane Airport’s recent passenger figures indicate intrastate travel between Brisbane and regional Queensland is growing at more than double the rate of interstate travel.

So significant is the growth that once popular interstate routes are being pushed out of Brisbane’s top 20 city pairs.

Launceston and Hobart have dropped out of the top 20 to make way for Moranbah and Roma, with Gladstone and Emerald also moving up the rankings.

The fastest growing intrastate routes in passenger volume terms for Brisbane Airport include Gladstone, Mackay, Moranbah, Cairns, Emerald, Roma, Whitsunday Coast (Proserpine), Rockhampton, Hervey Bay and Townsville.

Brisbane Airport Corporation’s (BAC) CEO and Managing Director, Julieanne Alroe, said after Sydney, Brisbane has the next best domestic network of all Australian airports in terms of the number of destinations offered.

...

In March, total passenger numbers through Brisbane Airport increased by 7.9 per cent, with an additional 127,000 travellers through the Domestic and International Terminals compared to the same time last year.

Separately, international passengers increased by 11.1 per cent year-on-year, with domestic traffic up 7.1 per cent for the same period.

Make no wonder the likes of Virgin Australia has added significant capacity (via Alliance Airlines and ATRs) on intra-Queensland routes such as Brisbane-Proserpine/Gladstone and Brisbane-Cairns.

Moranbah has been a great mover these past few years - in late 2008 and up to their administration, Macair Saab 340s were plying the route a number of times each week. For over 6 months and after Macair went under, no Airline was was servicing the route. QantasLink bit the bullet and introduced nonstop services at 6x weekly in SEP09 with Dash 8-200 equipment. Fast forward to today where the carrier predominately operates Q400s and around 42 services a week (services will no doubt be increased again)!!
 
ZuluAlpha
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Thu Apr 19, 2012 9:24 am

Quoting QF175 (Reply 180):
Moranbah has been a great mover these past few years

And I'm also going to add RMA into the equation. Like everything in Queensland, with the mining boom up the road in Injune, RMA has up to six flights a day, with a mixture of Dash8-300's, Dash8-200's and Dash8-100's. Recently the airport had a 14 million dollar upgrade including carpark, terminal and the lengthening and stregenthing of the runway at RMA (to 1300 meters) to eventually accommodate Dash8-400's
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Thu Apr 19, 2012 11:28 am

Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 154):
Anybody in QF know why 581 is cancelled every Tuesday from May to July.

This coincides with the switch back to A330's on this flight -- ongoing A333 maintenance is probably the culprit. This is also effecting other flights (PER/ADL-SIN being the main ones).

Quoting EK413 (Reply 165):
With all the equipment and route changes the SYD-PER-SYD B744 services will cease... I can not recall the exact dates but I believe May 2012...

The change is alongside the AKL-LAX dropping -- final 744 is on May 4th, Saturday is always a 763ER and the first A330 is on Mon May 6th. Ops will be mixed A332's and A333's.

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 168):
What do we all feel is the future of aviation in this country? More consolidation, increased competition or a vastly different playing field in a few years?

I think the biggest winner over the next decade will be JQ, actually. VA is basically doing everything they can to mimick QF (the surface style might differ a little, but underneath it is starting to look identical), and the competition has really shifted to that end of the market. TT has been damaged beyond rescue IMO, though they will remain a small player, and JQ will be used to really ramp up pressure on VA from the bottom, picking up those who flew DJ based on price. And at the same time, they will dominate an entire market segment virtually themselves.

I also hope we ditch passports across the Tasman soon...

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 172):
Same here. Rex are not really doing huge things now, and as their fleet of ageing Saabs will need replacing soon, its even harder to see them go it alone for years to come.

Rex is really going to struggle. They're going to end up stuck in the middle of the QF-VA regional war that's just heating up, even if they retain their monopoly on some of their smaller routes. The secure revenue they get from their trunk routes is going to disappear... I'd expect Rex to be absorbed into either QF or VA, with the regulators requiring some guarantee that services to smaller destinations be sustained for X years...
 
skyhawkmatthew
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Thu Apr 19, 2012 11:44 am

Quoting qf002 (Reply 182):
I'd expect Rex to be absorbed into either QF or VA,

My money's on VA buying Rex before too long - there's basically no overlap between their current networks, they already have various agreements between them, and VA looks to be aggressively expanding their regional offering at the moment. Buying Rex would put VA on a pretty even footing against QF in regional NSW.
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Thu Apr 19, 2012 11:52 pm

I've heard that Qantas are getting another A330-200 for domestic ops in November this year? This would be a welcome addition to their capacity if correct? What's planned for the QF A330-200 International aircraft once AKL-LAX is dropped?

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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Fri Apr 20, 2012 12:36 am

Flightradar24 shows DL16 doing some funny pattern off the East Coast... Any info?

[Edited 2012-04-19 17:37:13]
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Fri Apr 20, 2012 1:06 am

TT have announced a return to the MEL-HBA route today with double daily services re commencing on the 1st of November. Flights are available to be booked now on the TT website.

Source: http://www.themercury.com.au/article...12/04/20/320511_tasmania-news.html

This is some great news for both TT and Tasmania. Since the grounding I've not heard a bad thing about TT, they had the best on time performance of all carriers in February (and yes I'm aware they aren't flying as much as the others) and appear to be going well with their return to the sky.

Has anyone heard anything good/bad about them lately?
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Fri Apr 20, 2012 1:20 am

Quoting skyhawkmatthew (Reply 178):
on the whole, MEL is simply too close to allow AVV to grow as its own entity.

I thinks that's the problem. A quick play-around with Google Maps tells me that if MEL was in Chadstone then the drive from Geelong would be longer than the drive from BNE to Surfers Paradise. I realise that this is totally hypothetical, but the point is that since MEL to the west of the city then the drive from Geelong etc simply isn't long enough to justify flights to AVV.

Quoting Boof (Reply 186):
Has anyone heard anything good/bad about them lately?

The only bad thing I've heard about TT recently is people bitching about how much fares have risen since they left certain markets  
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
IndianicWorld
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Fri Apr 20, 2012 1:31 am

Quoting Boof (Reply 186):
This is some great news for both TT and Tasmania.

Certainly great news to see them returning on this route. 2X daily seems like a gamble though, but it will likely just be seasonal at that level and return back to a daily, depending on the success they achieve. Good luck TT.

Haven't VA and JQ increased flights on the route lately?

Quoting Boof (Reply 186):
Has anyone heard anything good/bad about them lately?

A mate of mine went with them last month and said it was actually better than his return JQ flight. Only 1 sector but still a positive review.

[Edited 2012-04-19 18:33:52]
 
Boof
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Fri Apr 20, 2012 5:24 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 187):
The only bad thing I've heard about TT recently is people bitching about how much fares have risen since they left certain markets

I couldn't agree more with this. JQ & VA have had increases in the base fares out of HBA since TT left, it'll be interesting what a double daily service by TT will do to the average fare paid.

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 188):
Certainly great news to see them returning on this route. 2X daily seems like a gamble though, but it will likely just be seasonal at that level and return back to a daily, depending on the success they achieve. Good luck TT.

Haven't VA and JQ increased flights on the route lately?

Yeah both have increased flights on the route but a lot of the increase is coming later in the year.

TT's entry according to the press is double daily year round, with a third service at peak seasonal times, seems that the Tas government have put in some incentives to help things as well.

I actually don't think double daily is as big of a gamble as it might seem, they did have a period before with double daily, they would know well the loads achieved on the route, JQ don't have a stellar reputation in Tasmania (though it's getting better), and the other benefit of double daily is that it gives people that little bit more confidence to book with them. Last time the single daily flight a lot of people wouldn't book with them as the notion was "if it's cancelled I have to wait until tomorrow".

To cap this off VA had a great low fare presence in and out of Tasmania but with the push for business class etc; their fares are now often higher than QF's limited flights in and out HBA.

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 188):
A mate of mine went with them last month and said it was actually better than his return JQ flight. Only 1 sector but still a positive review.

1 positive is better than none! I've read a few comments on various travel forums stating the same thing and there was a couple of letters in The Age travel section recently with glowing reviews of TT's return to the sky.

Cheers,

Boof
Bring back Virgin Blue!
 
IndianicWorld
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Fri Apr 20, 2012 5:39 am

Quoting Boof (Reply 189):
I couldn't agree more with this. JQ & VA have had increases in the base fares out of HBA since TT left, it'll be interesting what a double daily service by TT will do to the average fare paid.

With the amount of seats that will be added, the yields will likely be an issue. Will be interesting to see.

Quoting Boof (Reply 189):
Yeah both have increased flights on the route but a lot of the increase is coming later in the year.

Thanks for that.

Quoting Boof (Reply 189):
TT's entry according to the press is double daily year round, with a third service at peak seasonal times, seems that the Tas government have put in some incentives to help things as well.

Interesting. From a pure volume/demand perspective you can see why the Tasmanian gov would be willing to undertake this. Cheaper fares will ultimately help its economy afterall. The only issue is whether the airlines can sustain it.

Quoting Boof (Reply 189):
Last time the single daily flight a lot of people wouldn't book with them as the notion was "if it's cancelled I have to wait until tomorrow".

Very true.
 
747m8te
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Fri Apr 20, 2012 6:19 am

Quoting skyhawkmatthew (Reply 176):
Tiger started their operation there because it was cheap, but moved to MEL pretty quickly: people just don't want to drive all the way to AVV when now you can get essentially the same fares out of Tullamarine.

No TT started their ops in MEL, opened up AVV as T4 at MEL was near capacity. AVV was cancelled by TT after the long groundings.

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 177):
Quoting skyhawkmatthew (Reply 176):It was initially established as Jetstar's only Melbourne airport as Qantas didn't want to cannibalise their own operations into MEL.

Semi true. They utilised both MEL and AVV, with AVV used for routes that already had QF service from MEL (SYD, BNE then ADL and PER).

Correct JQ used both MEL and AVV, as JQ replaced many of QFs regional/tourist routes they still wanted to fly pax into MEL to suit other flight transfers, and not alienate their travellers from the QF group...that would have sent all the pax to the competion...as no one wants to fly to AVV if they have a choice of MEL.

AVV is great for the people of Geelong to have direct flights to the main cities, but thats about it...
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IndianicWorld
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Fri Apr 20, 2012 6:56 am

http://www.theage.com.au/business/ch...-up-in-the-air-20120420-1xc13.html

Cheaper fares up in the air
April 20, 2012 - 4:07PM

While Qantas and Virgin have been using oil prices as a reason to nudge up airfares, the domestic carriers are facing a glut of extra capacity later this year that’s likely to lead to cheaper ticket prices.

RBA Equities analyst Mark Williams reckons capacity on key domestic routes in September will be up 21 per cent on the same time last year with yield growth correspondingly plummeting.

In a research note to clients, Williams says 2012 is shaping up as a different story for airlines after subdued capacity growth last year.
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“VAH (Virgin) has been pushing more capacity into the market to improve its attraction to the corporate market, while Tiger has been granted approval to gradually return its services to pre-grounding levels. QAN's 65% market share "line in the sand" means it will be forced into a response.

“Data we have analysed indicates that by September, the amount of capacity across the top 10 routes in the domestic market will be 21 per cent higher than in September 2011. Almost half of that capacity growth (9 per cent) is to be added over the next five months. We expect capacity growth on the key Sydney-Melbourne-Brisbane triangle to be at similarly high levels.”

Williams expects more aggressive pricing that will hit yield growth hard.

“From domestic yield growth of 4 per cent (QAN) and 11 per cent (VAH) in FY12, we forecast FY13 yield growth will fall to 0.5 per cent and 3.5 per cent respectively.”

And while the extra seats from new aircraft squeeze yields, Qantas is facing higher interest expense to pay for those planes. Williams has reduced his forecast for Qantas pre-tax profit by 21 per cent for the 2012 financial year to $312 million and cut the Virgin estimate by 12 per cent to $100 million, warning to clients “to be cautious around the airlines”.

RBS still rates Qantas a hold, but has trimmed Virgin to hold from a buy while maintaining a preference for Virgin thanks to its push into the corporate market.

-----

Sustainable?? I don't think so. Something will give soon enough.

As for TT and AVV, I would love to know what terms they came to to just walk away as they did. AVV spent considerable money on terminal and apron expansion for them to arrive, for that to just stop so quickly. Even before the grounding routes and frequencies downgraded. Now the place is a ghost town.

[Edited 2012-04-19 23:57:26]
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread # 60

Fri Apr 20, 2012 12:03 pm

Australian Aviation Thread # 61

Thanks for everyones' contributions throughout thread # 60  

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