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pnwtraveler
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sat Apr 07, 2012 8:54 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 8):
Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 7):
I’ve been trying to figure out why an airline would order the 748I instead of the A380 and so far I’ve only really come up with earlier availability – So what else am I missing?

The 747-8 offers more revenue cargo capacity, but not sure how important that is to UA.

The A380-800 enjoyed a strong enough advantage over the 747-400 in efficiency that even at lower load factors it was still more economical. That's not so much the case against the 747-8 so the lower capacity of the 747-8 might allow UA to better tailor capacity to need. They have few routes that need a VLA year-round and therefore tend to rotate their 747s around depending on what routes are in high season at the time.

Depending on how the plane is configuered, selling the extra 100 to 130 or more seats on an A380, when some routes are seasonal, is important. That is a large amount of extra demand. And has been discussed to death, North American business travel is extremely time conscious and frequency is vital in many markets. Jumping to an A380 if you weren't absolutely sure you can fill the thing year round would be a massive bonehead move.

Personally, I think the pilots are probably right. United has looked or is looking at the 748i. However, that doesn't mean that an order is immanent. They would be idiots to not look at the aircraft carefully and crunch the numbers to see if it can't be made to work. The aircraft would give them a small marketing edge over Delta, American and US Airways. Perhaps to London and Hong Kong.

The rumours I hear from pilots, seldom turn out to be true. They gossip like crazy. Sometimes I wonder at some of things they come up with. I bite my tongue and think, "you think that and I trust you to fly an aircraft I might be on?" Pilots are good at what they do and sometimes the worst business heads  .
 
Daysleeper
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sat Apr 07, 2012 8:54 pm

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 43):
Truly, I'm dumbfounded by what you're going on about. This thread is regarding the suitability of the 748-i for UA, not EK, and only marginally about the personal preference of European travelers for home carriers, as UA has a JV with some of them. Why UA should follow EK's steps is mind-boggling, quite frankly, as they mostly serve two separate and distinct markets. UA connects very few passengers via its home continent onwards to other continents, and has a huge domestic market to consider serving efficiently and profitably.

How suitable any VLA will be for UA depends on how much traffic it can attract.

EK are incredibly successful and will shortly become the world’s largest operator of VLA’s. They have also successfully managed to enter the European market and take traffic from the large European carriers.

This is obviously something UA would need to be able to do in order to utilise aircraft such as the 748i on European routes, unless they started to consolidate routes and reduce frequency – which is said to not be possible… so we are back to increasing traffic.



Quoting KarlB737 (Reply 48):
A380:

1. Too big for most airports.

Both aircraft are Code F, meaning anywhere the 748I can go, the A380 can.

Quoting KarlB737 (Reply 48):
2. "Cracks" Issue - Has it been corrected or resolved.

Simple answer: Yes, its been resolved.

Quoting KarlB737 (Reply 48):
747:
1. Not too big for most airports.

Same as above, both are Code F

Quoting KarlB737 (Reply 48):
2. No "Cracks" Issue.

This isn't an issue with the A380 either.

Quoting KarlB737 (Reply 48):
3. A reliable track record over several decades.

It has of course had its own fair share of issues over this time, but yes I'd say this is a definite advantage. I think however they key advantage as many have already posted is it's size - The A380 might be a little too big for UA.

[Edited 2012-04-07 14:13:25]
 
AeroWesty
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sat Apr 07, 2012 9:20 pm

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 52):
This is obviously something UA would need to be able to do in order to utilise aircraft such as the 748i on European routes

Perhaps you're not familiar with the daily loads year-round on UA900/901.

The thing is, you can model this into whatever you'd like. Regardless, UA will make the decision as to whether it's worthwhile to order the 748-i or not by reviewing the needs of its network and passengers. It's doubtful if they'll be looking at what the likes of what is largely a non-competitor is doing. Any other argument for or against is simply empty electrons.
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WAC
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sat Apr 07, 2012 9:31 pm

I think I could see UA ordering it in particular on USA-Asia routes and EWR-LHR/FRA IAD-FRA. I think 10-15 would suffice to operate EWR to LHR, IAD + LHR to FRA, SFO-NRT+ICN LAX-NRT+SYD and ORD-NRT. I could see NRT being switched with Beijing or Shanghai or even getting their own 7478i.

I do not think the LHR routes could see all 7478is but at least one.

In the end there will be some consolidation of CO+UA but it will be a consolidation of future growth, i.e. rather than operating a 757 in 5-10 years time they will upgauge to 350/787 rather than 777-2 a 7478i. In the future most airlines want to grow and usually that is through up-gauging, new destinations and frequency increase (the latter if they can) Also a 7478.

Has the new UA (UA+CO) placed a new order since their conception....?
 
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aerorobnz
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sat Apr 07, 2012 9:37 pm

Many airlines make business cases for aircraft they will never order. QF for 777s, NZ for A330s, UA for 748i etc etc.

That said i think the 748 will pick up a few orders based on the improved fuel consumption they've been experiencing in operation, whether or not UA is one of those remains to be seen.
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
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zeke
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sat Apr 07, 2012 9:53 pm

Quoting KarlB737 (Reply 48):
2. No "Cracks" Issue.

This is supposed to be a factual forum. All aircraft with metal components leaving the factory will have cracks in them, evn when brand new, to say a 747 has no cracks in them is laughable. As they have a lower percentage composite, the chances are it will have more places for cracks to develop.

Only recently there was a new AD that hit over 500 747s in service...similar AD was issued in 2005

Quote:
MAINTENANCE Concerns over cracking along the stretched upper deck of older Boeing 747s have generated a revision of inspections and modifications from the US FAA. Although it issued a July 2009 notice requiring inspection of frame-to-tension-tie joints at two major upper-deck stations, carriers have since reported that the cracking problem is more widespread. About 561 aircraft, including -100B SUDs, -200Bs, -300s, -400s and -400Ds are affected by the new rule, although it will be open to airline comment before being formalised. The revisions across the fleet would cost some $25 million.

Cracks are not new to aviation, the repair process is also well known to all airlines.
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Daysleeper
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sat Apr 07, 2012 10:11 pm

Quoting aerorobnz (Reply 56):
That said i think the 748 will pick up a few orders based on the improved fuel consumption they've been experiencing in operation, whether or not UA is one of those remains to be seen.

If your referring to the improvements recently posted on the Boeing blog then they are very miss-leading. It’s a case of the 748F not being quite as bad as they thought it was going to be, rather than it being better than expected. In summary it has still not managed to meet its initial fuel burn figures and won’t be able too until 2014 at the earliest.

I doubt this is going to have a major effect on the orders though, and it is of course going to sell more frames.

[Edited 2012-04-07 15:48:38 by srbmod]
 
fpetrutiu
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sat Apr 07, 2012 10:29 pm

Quoting gemuser (Reply 5):
What makes you think the A380 can't get a waiver for EWR if somebody applies for it?

Would wingspan be an issue with other traffic?
Florin
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ltbewr
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sat Apr 07, 2012 10:35 pm

If I am correct, doesn't UA still operate flights LAX-AUK-SYD using 747-400's? Does UA operate other Asian routes out of LAX? I got to presume the a/c they use for those routes have to have a lot of hours on them and due for replacement. Why not buy an a/c with a more efficient version of one mx is long familiar with vs. the A-380. The 747-8i would give them just enough more capacity, especially for peak seasons, vs. the A-380. Also, some Asian airports may be too tight or local politics may limit 'foreign' airlines from using the A380, but might allow the 747-8i.
 
kiwiandrew

Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sat Apr 07, 2012 11:28 pm

Quoting ltbewr (Reply 58):
If I am correct, doesn't UA still operate flights LAX-AUK-SYD using 747-400's?

You are not correct. UA pulled out of AKL a number of years ago. They had operated 744 LAX-AKL-MEL, then IIRC, they went to 777 LAX-AKL-MEL , and finally 777 LAX-AKL as a terminating service. They dropped LAX-AKL around the same time NZ dropped LAX-SYD which has kept conspiracy theorists happy ever since.
 
vin2basketball
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sat Apr 07, 2012 11:31 pm

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 7):
I’ve been trying to figure out why an airline would order the 748I instead of the A380 and so far I’ve only really come up with earlier availability – So what else am I missing?

There are probably 15-20 United routes that could fill a 747-8i at 365-405 seats w/out sacrificing yield by giving up frequency. Raise that number to 480-520 on the A380, and the number is not so large, maybe 5 or 6. Remember also, there is a cost advantage (b/c of commonality) to keeping the 747-8i, the number is probably somewhere in the range of 2-3% advantage thanks to the nature of a VLA fleet. Whether that outweighs the seat-mile cost advantage of the 747-8i, I don't know. But you put together the following:

- Better availability
- Seat mile costs (assuming 388 is 8% better than 748i- Airbus says 8%, Boeing says its worse, reality somewhere in between closer to Airbus, but for the sake of argument we'll take 8%) w. 2.7% sfc improvement from PiP from GE, plus the 2-3% advantage in commonality means that 747-8i is within 2-3% of 388 seat mile costs
- Can be filled on more UA routes
- has better cargo revenue potential (which is very important towards operating a VLA in the off-peak season)

Quoting CXfirst (Reply 13):
I would think that if EWR's biggest customer decided to order the A380, EWR would get the waiver.

Anyway, I would love to see the 748 with UA, but at the moment, I don't see it happening (all though I would predict 748 over A380).

Do UA need anything bigger than the A350? How much bigger would the proposed 777-8X/9X be in comparison, maybe this would be a suitable plane for the larger markets.

-CXfirst

777-9X is actually slotted to come in very close to where the 747-8i is

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 28):

I started a thread not long ago to discuss the differences in traffic numbers between US and European airlines. After almost 100 posts and some very in-depth discussions regarding frequency and multiple hubs the conclusion was simply that European passengers prefer European airlines.

The obvious problem with this conclusion is explaining the success of airlines like Emirates, tax breaks, free fuel and cheap finance aside EK obviously have something that other Airlines don’t as they are able to attract passengers without heavily discounted tickets. For me, I think it comes down to the product they are able to offer, a combination of great inflight service on modern well equipped aircraft.

I genuinely think that the US majors have lost the “premium carrier” feel, and investing in VLA’s outfitted with showers, casino’s or a small theme park might enable them to start re-building a quality imagine. I know such things are gimmick’s, but EK’s ever increasing traffic numbers and profits seem to indicate such things work.

[Edited 2012-04-07 11:51:50]

Ehh, I'm going to find fault with that conclusion. The reality is that for the most part, European carriers push their traffic through one hub, whereas US carriers run with 2-3 for each traffic segment.

IB, AF, KL, and BA all follow this general principle, as do lesser players like TAP, SWISS, Finnair, Brussels Airlines.

LH is the one exception but even they only have two true long haul hubs (MUC, FRA) plus a focus long haul market (DUS).

Meanwhile, United has 3 true hubs for US-Europe connections: EWR, IAD, and ORD, as well as Euro flights from IAH for connections from US west coast, and flts from SFO/LAX to Europe as well. For Asia/Oceania, there are four hubs (EWR, LAX, SFO, ORD), plus a few flights from IAH and IAD.

Delta has two true Europe hubs (JFK and ATL) that are huge ones, plus a large Euro operation in DTW, and a few Europe flts from MSP . They also run a feeder long haul operation in AMS for KLM. On the Asia side, DTW is the only true hub, but they run a scissors hub in NRT, and an Asian focus in SEA.

Point being, that US airlines are spreading long haul traffic over a bunch of hubs for trans-Atlantic and Trans-Pac which is why there are fewer city pairs (typically those with strong O+D demand) that can profitably fill VLAs.

Add in the fact that the Euro carriers run intercontinental hubs effectively connecting five continents to each other (N+S. America to EU/Asia/Africa/ME both directions, Asia-Europe/Africa in both directions, ME-Europe and Africa to Europe in both directions), whereas the US is only a true competitor for L. America to Asia flights. Thus the long haul traffic base isn't as large.

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 51):
Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 56):

If your referring to the improvements recently posted on the Boeing blog then they are very miss-leading. It’s a case of the 748F not being quite as bad as they thought it was going to be, rather than it being better than expected. In summary it has still not managed to meet its initial fuel burn figures and won’t be able too until 2014 at the earliest.

I doubt this is going to have a major effect on the orders though, and it is of course going to sell more frames.


It will essentially push the 747-8i 1-2% fuel burn and/or tsfc below advertised spec at better payload/range, I agree that it won't drive huge uptick in orders, but it is a marginal gain and should help in selling freighters, as well as closing the real 5.5-6.5% (my estimate) seat mile cost gap between the A380 and 747-8i down to 3-4%.
 
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N62NA
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sat Apr 07, 2012 11:53 pm

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 39):
Is the A380 ever going to come to EWR?

Probably not as a scheduled commercial airline service.
 
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fxramper
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 12:16 am

Pilots giving information on a/c orders? Say it ain't so!   

Quoting STT757 (Reply 3):
The 747-8 received a waiver so it can operate at EWR;

Sweet.
 
warden145
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 12:17 am

Quoting fcogafa (Reply 48):
A similar rumour I heard last week is that BAW are reconsidering the B748i after a very good offer from Boeing....

I know better than to get my hopes up with this rumor, but I have to say for the record that, if this actually happens, it would be a dream come true!! Maybe, someday, a mixture of BA 747-836i's and A380's at SFO?    (I still contend that the BA Union Jack livery looks absolutely majestic on the 747...)
ETOPS = Engine Turns Off, Passengers Swim
 
VC10er
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 12:40 am

Quoting warden145 (Reply 46):

Yes, it has been going on since deregulation I believe, when the safety nets were gone and Lobster Thermador went the way of Braniff.

I am a hard core business traveler and I agree that in most cases EU airlines are superior. Nothing in the USA has a First Class or Business than Swiss and others. But I stick with UA because when you fly as often as I have to , and you make Global Services, the gap closes a lot. Especially in the United (pre-merger First Class seat). Also, I have found that Mileage Plus is extremely generous and given status and United's size I almost always get an award seat when I want. I am a Star Alliance Junkie as well (started years ago when I used VARIG all the time) and their are some unique products I have taken advantage of.
But when I am on United I am most happy on a 747. Actually I am always happy on a 747. On UA it is their best First Class layout, business on the top deck feels cozy and moe exclusive. I would be an extremely happy person if they ever do get the 747-8i. IMHO, United has a better shot at being "America's Leading Airline" with 747-8i's -- but even with a huge fleet of 747-8i's, UA just won't be Singapore or Swiss. The $$$ does not provide for that.
To Most the Sky is The Limit, For me, the Sky is Home.
 
Viscount724
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 1:08 am

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 59):
Quoting ltbewr (Reply 58):
If I am correct, doesn't UA still operate flights LAX-AUK-SYD using 747-400's?

You are not correct. UA pulled out of AKL a number of years ago.

Nine years ago, March 2003.
 
Flighty
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 1:24 am

Quoting VC10er (Reply 64):
but even with a huge fleet of 747-8i's, UA just won't be Singapore or Swiss. The $$$ does not provide for that.

Yes, that's what I was trying to say in a clumsy way above by insulting the global airlines. We can't match this boutique type elite atmosphere (international focus) since our airlines are so big and so domestic. So it is our fate to admire the glamor of other country airlines.
 
airfrnt
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 1:35 am

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 7):
I’ve been trying to figure out why an airline would order the 748I instead of the A380 and so far I’ve only really come up with earlier availability – So what else am I missing?

A desire not to commit hari-kari by excess seat-capacity? The American carriers were nearly killed by the gyrations of overcapacity from the 747 and the 744. That being said, I don't think any of the US carriers are stupid enough to buy either the A380 or the 748. Then again, Airlines have proven time and time again to be irrational.

Quoting na (Reply 12):
That not one has ordered VLAs is a confession of failure and evidence of incapacity against the foreign competition.

Unless something dramatically changes, neither Boeing nor Airbus are going to ever made a cent of profit on their programs. These sales rumors are occurring because Boeing is realizing this, and pricing to get what little capacity is out there that is not fueled by grandiose oil dreams in the middle of the desert.

You are right that American airlines in general have to rebrand themselves. Which is why UA is currently running a commercial on it's flights telling all of their passengers about the revolutionary new plane they are about to start flying, and it ain't the A380.
 
nycdave
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 1:40 am

Quoting STT757 (Reply 3):
I'll say this, since the A380 is not approved for EWR and the 747-8 is I believe that if UA decided it wanted a new VLA it will be the 747-8I. They're not going to order any aircraft that cannot serve one of their most important hubs.
Quoting gemuser (Reply 5):
What makes you think the A380 can't get a waiver for EWR if somebody applies for it?

Gemuser
Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 57):
Would wingspan be an issue with other traffic?

IIRC, the issue at EWR was not simply one of terminal space -- the clearances are too narrow in EWR's current layout for the A380; it would require significant rework of taxiways around the two parallel runways, at the least, to allow normal service configurations. It's not a simple issue of "oh, all class F can be handled the same at the same places".

The A380 has a wingspan more than 10m greater than the 748. That's not a trivial issue. If only I could be bothered to go back and google the issues with A380 at EWR...
 
Gemuser
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 1:45 am

Quoting N62NA (Reply 10):
Why hasn't LH applied for one?

Because they don't want one? There are only so many A380s in LH fleet and EWRs number simply hasn't come up yet? Like it or not JFK is still the primary gateway to NYC & North America, at least in the minds of most non North Americans, LH has similar capacity their as EWR, and JFK is more premium heavy, so them not applying for a waiver yet does not mean it can't happen.

Gemuser

[Edited 2012-04-07 18:51:26]
DC23468910;B72172273373G73873H74374475275376377L77W;A319 320321332333343;BAe146;C402;DHC6;F27;L188;MD80MD85
 
avek00
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 1:48 am

Quoting WAC (Reply 53):

United has chosen to focus on maximizing yields over capacity in the TATL market, and will almost certainly prefer incremental (and highly flexible) increases in the number of seats offered (such as the shift from a 752 to a 763) over the introduction of VLAs that are great when loads are high and yields are good, but are a recipe for disaster when things turn south.

Quoting VC10er (Reply 64):

Many here sell USA carriers short. On longhaul, USA legacies are offering premium
cabin hard products that match or exceed the offerings of European and Asian partners and competitors, and in United's case, the adoption of the BusinessFirst soft product will put them among the Top 10 worldwide if properly executed. Not to mention that USA legacy FFPs run circles around programs in other countries, from the perspective of both the airline and the consumer.

And to be sure, given that the USA aviation market is the world's most advanced in terms of deregulation, much of what happens here comes to the other aviation markets of the world as they undergo similar post-deregulation phases in their own time. Western Europe is the closest market behind us in deregulation progression, and thus carriers in that region are going to undergo structural changes not unlike those undertaken by USA carriers in the first decade of the 21st century. You can bet your bottom dollar that before this decade is out, the likes of BA, IB, AF, KL, LH will function much more like their American counterparts, on items ranging from efficient airport staffing to eliminating legacy routes that don't sustain themselves to product unbundling and ancillary fees.
Live life to the fullest.
 
avek00
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 1:54 am

Quoting na (Reply 12):

It's interesting how USA carriers get ballyhooed for not ordering VLAs while there's little criticism directed towards Japanese legacies -- who at one point likely operated more VLAs than any other airlines in real numbers and as a percentage of their fleet -- for indicating their future lies with 777/787/A350.

[Edited 2012-04-07 18:56:07]
Live life to the fullest.
 
VS11
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 2:23 am

Quoting avek00 (Reply 70):
. Western Europe is the closest market behind us in deregulation progression, and thus carriers in that region are going to undergo structural changes not unlike those undertaken by USA carriers in the first decade of the 21st century. You can bet your bottom dollar that before this decade is out, the likes of BA, IB, AF, KL, LH will function much more like their American counterparts, on items ranging from efficient airport staffing to eliminating legacy routes that don't sustain themselves to product unbundling and ancillary fees.

Where have you been in the past at least 10 years? The European market is entirely deregulated in the American aviation sense of the word. The entire EU block of 27 countries acts as one market and the only major difference is that when an airline fails it is usually for good...there are no Chapter 11 resurrections....
 
SEA
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 3:16 am

I've heard from people I know (who would know with complete accuracy) that UA aren't even in the exploratory phase right now of buying anything larger than the A350.
 
Max Q
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 3:18 am

Quoting avek00 (Reply 70):
Many here sell USA carriers short. On longhaul, USA legacies are offering premium
cabin hard products that match or exceed the offerings of European and Asian partners and competitors

Are, you serious ?
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


GGg
 
Cerecl
Posts: 613
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 3:46 am

Quoting Max Q (Reply 74):
Are, you serious ?

This member is a die-hard fan of Continental. His rather heroic love of US airlines is well known...
Fokker-100 SAAB 340 Q400 E190 717 737 738 763ER 787-8 772 77E 773 77W 747-400 747-400ER A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A343 A346 A359 A380
 
gothamspotter
Posts: 311
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 4:35 am

Quoting American 767 (Reply 16):
To get an approval to fly the A380 into an airport, it is not sufficient to look at the runway lengths and widths.

I don't think the FAA cares about terminal facilities as long as they don't interfere with taxiways and runways. The FAA waiver for the 748 didn't mention terminals at all, only runways, taxiways, aprons and obstructions. It's up to the airport and airlines if they want to spend 2 hours deplaning.
 
avek00
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Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 5:56 am

Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 5:14 am

Quoting VS11 (Reply 72):

The elimination of intra-EU ownership and operating restrictions was indeed significant, and was a move on par with he US removing domestic route limitations on US carriers in the late 1970s given the comparable geographic size and populations of the US and EU.
Live life to the fullest.
 
avek00
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 5:22 am

Quoting Max Q (Reply 74):

Absolutely. While AF and LH continue to dither in installing flat bed seats, UA and DL are in the home stretch of installing flat beds in longhaul Business. With United adopting Continental's BusinessFirst soft product, UA premium customers will get a choice of 4 quality, freshly plated entrees instead of the 2-3 preplated options that's SOP for most European and Asian legacies.

A.net is not at the forefront of every positive change in commercial aviation, especially when it takes place in the United States. So little surprise that many here have missed the rather substantial premium improvements underway at USA legacies while raving about foreign carriers who themselves are beginning to cut major corners in their product offerings.
Live life to the fullest.
 
Max Q
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 6:03 am

Quoting avek00 (Reply 78):

Absolutely. While AF and LH continue to dither in installing flat bed seats, UA and DL are in the home stretch of installing flat beds in longhaul Business. With United adopting Continental's BusinessFirst soft product, UA premium customers will get a choice of 4 quality, freshly plated entrees instead of the 2-3 preplated options that's SOP for most European and Asian legacies.

A.net is not at the forefront of every positive change in commercial aviation, especially when it takes place in the United States. So little surprise that many here have missed the rather substantial premium improvements underway at USA legacies while raving about foreign carriers who themselves are beginning to cut major corners in their product offerings.

I think you are being unrealistic.


It's not about having flatbed seats or how many entree choices there are.


It's about service, attitude, politeness, friendliness, helpfulness.



These attributes are very difficult to find on US carriers.



They do give you attitude, and rudeness, they are unfriendly, bossy, unhelpful with a good dose of bitterness thrown in.




There is no comparison to SQ, CX, EK , BA etc..
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


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CO 757-300
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 6:37 am

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 18):
The a380 or 748 would be great June through September but the major problem is what to do with the airplanes in november or February when demand is 25 percent lower.

SFO-SYD?
LAX-SYD?
IAH-GRU?
IAH-GIG?
 
PHX787
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 6:45 am

Let me look back at the original post, after reading all your comments, and let's look at this w/o so much speculation and without rumors going wild:

Quoting ZKNCL (Thread starter):
Rumor is that United is looking at 10-15 747-8I's

How many 744s are there in operation? How many have been in operation in the past? How well are the loads doing for these flights? When is the retirement schedule for the 744s?

Quoting ZKNCL (Thread starter):
flying to larger markets along with filling the gap after the A350.

What flights are we talking about, specifically? Which flights will see the 350?

IMO, I'm surprised that UA and DL aren't jumping on these planes sooner. Obviously, the 744 has a major role in their network, and those planes can't last forever, so they need a viable replacement. However, I do think that the 748 might be a little too large for what they might be aiming for. That's why DL jumped on the 77L and UA to the 350, but at the same time, those planes are NO WHERE NEAR the capacity level of the 744. You gotta bridge that gap somehow, and sometimes, a little overkill never hurts when it comes to seat numbers.

remember, my opinion, of course.

→Zach
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Cerecl
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 6:55 am

Quoting Max Q (Reply 79):
It's about service, attitude, politeness, friendliness, helpfulness.

     
I flew SYD-SFO on UA once. Suffice to say, after that flight there is no way in hell I would fly with them again unless they drastically improve. I have never come across less professional service. SQ, CX, CA, MU, MH, QF, DJ, JQ, pick any of these, they are all miles ahead in service. Maybe UA should spend more money on staff training rather than buying new planes.
Fokker-100 SAAB 340 Q400 E190 717 737 738 763ER 787-8 772 77E 773 77W 747-400 747-400ER A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A343 A346 A359 A380
 
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Schweigend
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 7:14 am

If, as rumours have it, Houston might get a 747 to Tokyo in the Fall, and UA can fill it, then IAH could be 748-worthy.

The routes from Newark that could possibly most benefit from a 748's capabilities are TLV, BOM, DEL, NRT, PVG, and PEK.

EWR-LHR would be a waste of the 748, IMO, unless it is maxed out with cargo.

I assert that SFO and LAX trans-pacific routes will require the 748. UA runs its 744s full most of the time, even with what is considered a sub-standard Coach product.

Everyone, don't forget that the jury is out on the 748i until we know how Lufti's models perform.
 
ua76heavy
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 7:50 am

Quoting Max Q (Reply 79):
It's about service, attitude, politeness, friendliness, helpfulness
Quoting Cerecl (Reply 82):
Suffice to say, after that flight there is no way in hell I would fly with them again unless they drastically improve.

Try flying business. The times I've flown UA between the US and Asia or Europe, the service was great.
 
AngMoh
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 8:35 am

Quoting avek00 (Reply 70):
You can bet your bottom dollar that before this decade is out, the likes of BA, IB, AF, KL, LH will function much more like their American counterparts

I hope not because in that case they are stuffed: trying to be another Ryanair with a non-Ryanair customer base and cost structure is a guaranteed disaster...

Going back to the original topic:

I can't see UA getting the 748. If that would be an option, a 10 abreast 77W should be in their fleet by now. I can see them fill a 748 for 1 or 2 flights to NRT and maybe 1 or 2 other routes but that's it. The problem with NRT is that you need to go on somewhere else, otherwise the plane is parked too long in NRT. Arrival in NRT is end of the afternoon, while the return flight is late morning/early afternoon. You can't fill a 748 from NRT to anywhere else in Asia.

And they will not cancel the A359 and replace them with 777-X as they will need to wait too long for that option. In financial calculations, time plays a big factor and they can not wait much longer.
727 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739/ER 742 743 744/M 752 753 762 772 77E 773 77W 788 A300 A310 A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A343 A345 A346 A359 A35K A388 DC-9 DC-10 MD11 MD81 MD82 MD87 F70 ERJ145 E170 E175 E190 E195 ATR72 Q400 CRJ200 CRJ700 CRJ900 BAE146 RJ85
 
Max Q
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 9:10 am

Quoting avek00 (Reply 70):
You can bet your bottom dollar that before this decade is out, the likes of BA, IB, AF, KL, LH will function much more like their American counterparts, on items ranging from efficient airport staffing to eliminating legacy routes that don't sustain themselves to product unbundling and ancillary fees.

Not going to happen.
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


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RayChuang
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 11:22 am

I do think there is validity that UA is seriously considering the 747-8I.

For one thing, it would be loss of seats for UA to switch to the 777-300ER from the 747-400 for its long routes from SFO to various Asian destinations. With the 748I's lower fuel costs per passenger on long flights, it would make sense for UA to buy 15-20 planes for Asian destinations from SFO and LAX. In fact, given the tiff between China and EU over EU's carbon tax charges, I would not be surprised that Air China, China Southern and China Eastern all buy the 747-8I for their long international routes.
 
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RWA380
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 11:39 am

Quoting VC10er (Reply 11):
I also have always thought of UNITED as a 747 airline.

I can see why, they have been operating the type since the early 70's, say 40 years now, PA was that airline, UA graduated to the top spot, the 748 is a natural fit, UA does need a few VLA's for heavy routes, one 748 takes away 2 757's.

Quoting 777STL (Reply 2):
What "larger markets" does UA plan on flying to that they don't already?

I think what was meant, is those routes that are big routes for UA would see or need the 748, I see the 748 as the only natural choice to replace the 744's when they go out, an A350 doesn't seem like enough aircraft for SFO-HKG or the myriad of other routes that UA operates that are cargo and passenger heavy.
707 717 720 727-1/2 737-1/2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9 747-1/2/3/4 757-2/3 767-2/3/4 777-2/3 DC8 DC9 MD80/2/7/8 D10-1/3/4 M11 L10-1/2/5 A300/310/320
AA AC AQ AS BA BD BN CO CS DL EA EZ HA HG HP KL KN MP MW NK NW OZ PA PS QX RC RH RW SA TG TW UA US VS WA WC WN WP YS 8M
 
RickNRoll
Posts: 1865
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 12:09 pm

Quoting N62NA (Reply 61):

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 39):
Is the A380 ever going to come to EWR?

Probably not as a scheduled commercial airline service.

Why not?
 
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par13del
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 12:13 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 81):
However, I do think that the 748 might be a little too large for what they might be aiming for.

In one breath you say the above, then go to the comment below.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 81):
those planes are NO WHERE NEAR the capacity level of the 744. You gotta bridge that gap somehow, and sometimes, a little overkill never hurts when it comes to seat numbers.

So from both I would say the key then is not the a/c and its capacity but what UA and DL are aiming at, or in other words what their business plans calls for in terms of a/c size.
Current history is that 747's in the USA were used when introduced and as smaller a/c with "decent" range arrived they made the switch, Dc-10, L1011, 767 and 777.
Slot restricted airports are one of the supposed drivers of larger a/c it is mentioned with the A380, unfortunately for the USA carriers, it is a one way street, they do not operate from slot restricted airports, they do operate flights into slot restricted airports. I do believe that fact has some bearing on how their home networks are arranged in relation to assisting with their international network.
UA still has some time, the A350's are still a couple years out, their meger with CO took place after they expressed their intent on the A350, so let's see what happens in the next couple years. AA became the first USA carrier to select the 777W - jury still out while in chpt.11 -, someone may want to do them one better?
 
Max Q
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 12:41 pm

I would love to see the 748 at UA but, as long as Smisek is running the operation it's not going to happen.


He has never seen an Aircraft that was too small.



He has no vision.
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


GGg
 
Cerecl
Posts: 613
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 12:57 pm

Quoting ua76heavy (Reply 84):
Try flying business. The times I've flown UA between the US and Asia or Europe, the service was great.

With all due respect, good service should not stop at that curtain that separates business and economy class.

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 87):
I would not be surprised that Air China, China Southern and China Eastern all buy the 747-8I for their long international routes.

Come on, Chinese airlines are not that fickle. CZ already operates A380s and is accepting more. It makes no sense for them to operate 747-8i. There is a rumour that MU has ordered 77W. If not, then surely A350 family will suit its need. All the delayed Airbus orders will go through once this aviation tax/ETS issue comes to a head sooner or later. I am more interested in CA's 747-8i MOU, what are they waiting for?

As to UA, wouldn't 777-8/9X make more sense than 747-8i? Boeing may do a deal with interim 77W lease? Plus, can we really rule out A380?
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avek00
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 1:26 pm

Quoting Max Q (Reply 86):

It's inevitable. Most European legacies are presently suffering from the same cost and revenue inefficiencies that plagued USA legacies in the first decade of the 2000s. More tellingly, and in the realm of items that fly under a.net's radar, European legacy airline managers (especially those of AF-KLM and Lufthansa Group) are now frequently meeting with their US alliance counterparts to identify business practices that can be imported across the pond to reduce costs and bolster revenues.
Live life to the fullest.
 
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garpd
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 2:39 pm

I don't expect United to order the 748. I was under the impression they are struggling to fill their 744s year round. It wouldn't make sense to order the 748 if that is true and continues to be so.

Anyway, it would look nice!

http://img214.imageshack.us/img214/4149/7478i.png
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airbazar
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 3:18 pm

Quoting gemuser (Reply 5):
What makes you think the A380 can't get a waiver for EWR if somebody applies for it?

It requires a lot more than a mere waiver. Like rellocating a runway and taxiways  
Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 7):
I’ve been trying to figure out why an airline would order the 748I instead of the A380 and so far I’ve only really come up with earlier availability – So what else am I missing?

For a US carrier like UA, there are many, the biggest of all being airport restrictions. While the current UA hubs can handle a fleet of 748i's, I doubt any could handle more than a couple A380's at a time. How many A380 gates are there (or are easily adaptable), at UA's terminals in LAX, SFO, ORD, EWR, IAD? IAD is possily the only airport where such would be feasible. Good luck trying to park an A380 at UA's LAX terminal   The other problem is the fragmented nature of US international air market. While other A380 operators only operate out of 1 or 2 hubs, UA operates out of many hubs, thus smaller planes work better.
 
nycdave
Posts: 301
Joined: Mon Aug 16, 2010 4:22 pm

Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 3:21 pm

Quoting RickNRoll (Reply 89):

Quoting N62NA (Reply 61):

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 39):
Is the A380 ever going to come to EWR?

Probably not as a scheduled commercial airline service.

Why not?

Runway/Taxiway issues. Can't operate normally with the A380's wingspan.
 
roseflyer
Posts: 9602
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 5:03 pm

I find all the comments on UA not ordering VLAs because no one wants to fly their inferior product very comedic and not based in reality. UA is the largest airline in the world and is earning profits while maintaining an international fleet just short of two hundred airplanes.

UA only has a small fleet of VLA airplanes for market and strategic reasons. It's diverse network of long haul gateways combined with multiple frequencies on key transatlantic routes justify taking a hit on CASM in order to provide service on routes that the market warrants. It is not based on people avoiding their service. UA knows that it is not a five star airline and operates a much more cost effective network while still offering a competitive hard product.

VLAs will work on some routes but they are a huge cost and liability during the off season. We will see if UA management has them in their strategy or not.

But of course what do I know? I am speculating just like everyone else but I personsly have been in the halls of UA and presented to senior management on fleet issues and am intimately familiar with how they rub their operation.

Quoting CO 757-300 (Reply 80):
SFO-SYD?
LAX-SYD?

Australia is the opposite of normal seasonal routes but yields are down with the number of economy seats that have been dumped on the market. Ua does not need extra capacity to Australia. Brazil hardly even gets 777s let alone a 747.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
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DocLightning
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 5:07 pm

Quoting VC10er (Reply 11):
I also have always thought of UNITED as a 747 airline.

I thought that way of SQ, but it ain't necessarily so.

Quoting KarlB737 (Reply 47):
1. Too big for most airports.
2. "Cracks" Issue - Has it been corrected or resolved.

Issue 1 is an issue. That said, most airports where you would consider flying an A380 (or 748) are A380-capable or can be made A380-capable. Issue 2 is a non-issue. By the time UA hypothetically orders them, the problem will have been solved.

Quoting vin2basketball (Reply 60):
There are probably 15-20 United routes that could fill a 747-8i at 365-405 seats w/out sacrificing yield by giving up frequency.

Which means they'd need about 25-30 748's. Most of these are longer routes (SFO/LAX-Europe, East Coast-Asia, SFO/LAX/HOU-SYD). Thus, those routes take two aircraft each. Shorter routes under 10 hours can be flown with a single airframe.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
PHX787
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Rumor: United Looking At 747-8I ( Part 1)

Sun Apr 08, 2012 5:11 pm

Quoting par13del (Reply 90):
unfortunately for the USA carriers, it is a one way street, they do not operate from slot restricted airports, they do operate flights into slot restricted airports.

I would like to bring up that most of the airports in New York City are slot-restricted.

But my point would be that the 748 is obviously larger than the 744, and to bridge the gap between a 767-777 replacement and the 747 is something that all 747-reliant airlines are going to have to figure out.
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