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lisbonbearuk
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Ryanair - Next New Bases?

Tue Apr 10, 2012 8:04 am

Does FR have any plans to open any new bases in the coming months?

LIS has been rumoured for a while - what does everyone think about that possibility?
 
smbukas
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RE: Ryanair - Next New Bases?

Tue Apr 10, 2012 8:31 am

It is not likely FR to open a new base this year. Usually they start announcing new bases in late autumn and finish announces in March, because new bases are usually launched in the beginning of summer season as LCC traffic is very seasonal and summer is a peak on 90% of the routes.

Another thing, regarding LIS - Ryanair usually do not start directly from the based operations. I remember only BCN when they started just from the base. Usually they start with the flights from other bases and later upgrade to a base.

Generally, I think they have finished with the schedules for Summer and they should announce soon what is their strategy for the winter. Most likely they will ground big number of planes again for the winter so route cuts are more likely then new bases.
 
IndianicWorld
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RE: Ryanair - Next New Bases?

Tue Apr 10, 2012 9:18 am

As its FR, expect the unexpected.

Whomever offers the est deal they will go with until that deal ends and they will run off citing 'high costs' or whatever other reason they feel best suits a Press Release.
 
[email protected]
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RE: Ryanair - Next New Bases?

Tue Apr 10, 2012 9:34 am

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 2):
until that deal ends and they will run off citing 'high costs' or whatever other reason they feel best suits a Press Release.
FR have ceased very few bases. Regardless, there would be nothing wrong with what you stated. Indeed, it's largely akin to me negotiating a price with, say, a paper supplier for X years based on Y quantity. Once that deal expires, and if they won't offer the same or a better deal (e.g. for greater volume and repeat business), I'm free to go elsewhere. No one would likely consider that strange or whatever.

[Edited 2012-04-10 02:39:25]
"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
 
Joost
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RE: Ryanair - Next New Bases?

Tue Apr 10, 2012 1:28 pm

Quoting smbukas (Reply 1):
It is not likely FR to open a new base this year. Usually they start announcing new bases in late autumn and finish announces in March, because new bases are usually launched in the beginning of summer season as LCC traffic is very seasonal and summer is a peak on 90% of the routes.

True for the majority of the announcements, but not all. Especially for Spain, the summer base announcements followed a decrease in airport fees, for example.

03 Feb 2012: BUD (51)
10 Jan 2012: PAP (50)
13 Dec 2011: PMI (49)
6 Dec 2011: BLL (48)
25 Oct 2011: FKB (47)
19 Oct 2011: WRO (46)
12 Jul 2011: MAN (45)
23 Jul 2010: SVQ (44)
23 Jun 2010: VLC (43, reopen)
26 May 2010: BCN (42)

Quoting smbukas (Reply 1):
Another thing, regarding LIS - Ryanair usually do not start directly from the based operations. I remember only BCN when they started just from the base.

Although the majority of the current bases has been a destination on the map before becoming a base, there are definitely more airports that started as a base right away: PAP, BLQ, MAD and BRE all launched as a base right away. (For MAD, a single route from DUB was announced, but before the route started, the base was already announced).

For this year, I wouldn't be surprised to see Warsaw-Modlin becoming a base. For LIS, it greatly depends on the deal that the airport operating is willing to offer. It's not as summer-seasonal as VLC or PAP, and might see a launch anywhere in the year.

Quoting [email protected] (Reply 3):
FR have ceased very few bases.

Indeed. The only bases stopped so far are REU (fare increase), BHD (delay of runway extension), KIR (end of PSO-subsidy for KIR-DUB) and MRS (dispute with French social security laws - but is operating as a de-facto base during the summer season, to be able to use employees on Irish contracts). VLC was closed as a base, but re-opened later.
 
smbukas
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RE: Ryanair - Next New Bases?

Tue Apr 10, 2012 2:08 pm

Quoting joost (Reply 4):
Although the majority of the current bases has been a destination on the map before becoming a base, there are definitely more airports that started as a base right away: PAP, BLQ, MAD and BRE all launched as a base right away. (For MAD, a single route from DUB was announced, but before the route started, the base was already announced).

Thank you, didn't know that. But these examples are quite "old" when Ryanair's route network where not so extensive as it is now. Ryanair is now flying to almost every region in Europe so it would be difficult to find a new market which might be "worth" a base.

My other view is that Ryanair is working on increasing average yield strategy and I could expect they can more move to the main airports. Of course, it is not about FRA, LHR, CDG, LIN or AMS, but such airports as LIS, MXP, PRG or other might be a case. If Ryanair could get acceptable cost level at such airports I think they could get there and maybe with the base from the beginning as it was in BCN, MAD, BUD, MAN and other.
 
Joost
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RE: Ryanair - Next New Bases?

Tue Apr 10, 2012 2:55 pm

Quoting smbukas (Reply 5):
But these examples are quite "old" when Ryanair's route network where not so extensive as it is now.

IT's true for BLQ, MAD and BRE; however PAP was announced January 2012; BCN May 2010. Although many airports see Ryanair service, there are still many big / primary airports that don't see any Ryanair-service now.

As you say:

Quoting smbukas (Reply 5):
My other view is that Ryanair is working on increasing average yield strategy and I could expect they can more move to the main airports. Of course, it is not about FRA, LHR, CDG, LIN or AMS, but such airports as LIS, MXP, PRG or other might be a case.

Many big airports have home airlines in financial difficulties. Scale-downs or even shut-downs might push airport operators in the hands of FR. With the uncertainty around OS, AY, TP, OK, SK, I wouldn't be surprised to see FR starting shop at VIE, HEL, LIS, PRG, ARN, OSL or CPH.
 
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LOWS
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RE: Ryanair - Next New Bases?

Tue Apr 10, 2012 4:58 pm

Quoting joost (Reply 6):
FR starting shop at VIE

No, no. They'll go to GRZ or LNZ and call it Vienna South or Vienna West.
  
 
Joost
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RE: Ryanair - Next New Bases?

Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:10 pm

Quoting LOWS (Reply 7):
No, no. They'll go to GRZ or LNZ and call it Vienna South or Vienna West.

Well, you can laugh about it, but a few years ago nobody would have expected that FR would think of starting BCN, as they were flying from GRO and REU. The same was true for VLL (haha MAD north; look at them now). Or when they launched a base from LPL ('who wants to fly from LPL when there is MAN'), look at them now having bases at both airports.

(And of course, they now serve the Vienna-area by using BTS, and they're flying to GRZ and LNZ for years)
 
[email protected]
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RE: Ryanair - Next New Bases?

Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:14 pm

Quoting joost (Reply 6):
PAP was announced January 2012

I missed RYANAIR TO HAITI FROM £10!   
"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
 
Joost
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RE: Ryanair - Next New Bases?

Tue Apr 10, 2012 7:08 pm

Quoting [email protected] (Reply 9):
Quoting joost (Reply 6):
PAP was announced January 2012

I missed RYANAIR TO HAITI FROM £10!   

Haha   I meant PFO, Paphos. (FR has it wrong in their own presentations; where they also referred to FKB as BAD - which is, actually, bad   )

It reminds me of the people who thought FR was starting flights to SCL when they started SCQ.
 
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Buyantukhaa
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RE: Ryanair - Next New Bases?

Tue Apr 10, 2012 8:44 pm

Quoting joost (Reply 4):
For this year, I wouldn't be surprised to see Warsaw-Modlin becoming a base.

WMI is already bookable, flights start on July 16th (or later) to:

CRL
DUB
BUD
NRN
STN
BGY
RYG
CIA
NYO

Funny that in the booking stage they call it Modlin, not Warsaw  
I scratch my head, therefore I am.
 
Joost
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RE: Ryanair - Next New Bases?

Tue Apr 10, 2012 8:46 pm

Indeed, WMI is a destination already, but not a base.
 
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Buyantukhaa
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RE: Ryanair - Next New Bases?

Tue Apr 10, 2012 9:07 pm

Quoting joost (Reply 12):
Indeed, WMI is a destination already, but not a base.

Oops, you are right...
I scratch my head, therefore I am.
 
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WROORD
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RE: Ryanair - Next New Bases?

Wed Apr 11, 2012 1:54 am

Quoting joost (Reply 12):
Indeed, WMI is a destination already, but not a base.

FR is expected to upgrade WMI into base but that will probably happen in the fall. As it was stated they make formal announcement in the fall and start operations in the spring just in time for the summer season.
 
IndianicWorld
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RE: Ryanair - Next New Bases?

Wed Apr 11, 2012 7:04 am

Quoting [email protected] (Reply 3):
FR have ceased very few bases.


Even when they don't technically close a base they threaten to do so, or pull planes out based on some notion that the fees are suddenly too high. Fairs fair, pay what others do and then see whos model works best.

I get what you are saying that it is a business and thats part of the process, but its the manner in which they operate that is most concerning.

As for a base, any number of possibilities exist across their network. Some are already close to being bases, based on the numer of destinations that are served from them, so might be best to look for those cities as the top of the pile.



[Edited 2012-04-11 00:08:46]

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