roseflyer
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Sun May 06, 2012 4:58 pm

Quoting anfromme (Reply 39):
A few points on this thought that gets rehashed again and again in different variants.Firstly, regarding UA in particular: The youngest A32S will still be around for a while in UA in the same way that they didn't get rid of their 737 classics the instant they ordered A32S. Also, they have 25 A350s on order.Secondly, I think the "CO management" factor is way overplayed on a.net. In the same way that "AA will never buy Airbus again" and "Lufthansa will never buy Boeing again" were. So I really do give zero credit to that line of argument, irrespective of which airline/OEM combination it is applied to.I pointed this out before: It's not some CEO's desire to have a certain name and type printed on the safety cards that makes or breaks an order. It's numbers that get triple-checked and then checked again by the people that have to come up with the financing.Same here - by the sounds of it, UA isn't buying MAX because the management just prefers Boeing, but because the package that Boeing offered (prices, slots, etc.) suits them better than the package Airbus was willing to offer. It's called business.

I absolutely agree. I have made the argument countless times that orders are decided on many factors that are evaluated by a group within management (usually senior members of the engineering/technical/finance/procurement/operations/pilot operations management staff). They run the numbers on many criteria and make recommendations which are carefully considered. It is not done on a whim. It isn't like buying a car.
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Sun May 06, 2012 5:37 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 42):
Leeham.net.

And again, it's not like Boeing is selling them at a loss to win the business.
Quoting milesrich (Reply 48):
The Comet's problem was more the shape of the window, then the size, as the corners were not rounded enough. F-27 and the Viscount had the really large windows.

The issue with the commet is that the window frames also had *zero* fatigue analysis performed. The shape was the culprit, but we now analyze and test parts for fatigue. It was thought that designing the pressure vessel to take twice the service pressure differential was sufficient. Sadly, fatigue analysis was an emerging science at the time of the design. Compounding the commet's flaws were, by today's standards, poorly finished rivet holes that would have had minor cracks due to being punched instead of drilled.

There is a reason a D-check is regulated at 1/3rd of design life: to verify that analysis with the C-check at 1/3rd the D. Now, 'heavy C' checks are clever, but it is just ensuring the heavy check maintenance is performed by 1/3rd of the component/system life. In effect, 'heavy C' checks allow taking credit for parts with certified longer lives instead of doing everything at once.

Lightsaber
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tommy767
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Sun May 06, 2012 6:16 pm

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 35):

Unless Smisek gets discharged as CEO. If UA's quarter performance continues for 2, 3, and 4, I doubt he'll around. Lot's of bad press going on right now about the new UA. We're quickly finding out the CO way isn't always the good way.
"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
 
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STT757
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Mon May 07, 2012 1:18 am

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 52):

It's one quarter, Tilton was in charge for several years of un profitability, when fuel prices were a lot lower and the economy much stronger.
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United1
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Mon May 07, 2012 1:40 am

Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 17):
Quoting United1 (Reply 15):
Check the 10K you might be surprised that UA still holds 42 options on the A320's.

They are exactly that... OPTIONS that will never be taken delivery of.

...but that kind of disproves your statement that UA canceled those options. Do I think that they will take delivery of them...probably not but sometimes life throws you a curve ball. Don't get to caught up in drinking Boeing or Airbus Koolaid...United (and Continental for that matter) have a strong history of picking the aircraft that works right for them...not necessarily tying themselves to one manufacturer.

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 52):
Unless Smisek gets discharged as CEO. If UA's quarter performance continues for 2, 3, and 4, I doubt he'll around.

So you are aware even the most pessimistic on wall street expect UA to post a profit of somewhere between 962 million and 1.51 billion this year.

Q2 should be between 430 million and 630 million.
Q3 is shaping up to look like a profit of somewhere between 664 million and 942 million.

In other words plenty of money to buy new planes  

I know it's almost blasphemy to say it on these boards but SMI/J, MCD/D, RAI/J and KEE/J do know what they are doing (as do the other 80,000 United employees.)
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
SonomaFlyer
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Mon May 07, 2012 2:07 am

UA also needs to service is debt. Its doing a decent job so far but they aren't going to splurge cash on planes. They'll get a sweet financing deal and keep their cash stashed.
 
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Mon May 07, 2012 2:12 am

Quoting United1 (Reply 54):

If Delta and United don't make large....large profits this year we are all in a goooood bit of trouble. I figure north of 1B for both airlines this year.
 
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Mon May 07, 2012 2:20 am

Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 56):
If Delta and United don't make large....large profits this year we are all in a goooood bit of trouble. I figure north of 1B for both airlines this year.

Both should be north of a billion this year without too much trouble.

Quoting SonomaFlyer (Reply 55):
They'll get a sweet financing deal and keep their cash stashed.

That's probably a big part of why its taking a while to announce this deal...UA may have picked Boeing weeks ago but Boeing and UA are probably still finalizing financing.
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
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DocLightning
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Mon May 07, 2012 4:02 am

Quoting VC10er (Reply 43):

I assume based on some post above that windows stay the same? Given that the 737 nose and eyes are that of a 727 or 707, it must be the most tried and true aero dynamic nose cone!

It isn't necessarily. In fact, pilots tend to complain about the 737 and its cockpit design. However, if Boeing significantly changed the nose (and particularly the shape of the cockpit) of the 737, then there would be a big problem calling it a "737" anymore. Pilots probably couldn't hold a single certificate and fly both types.

There's a reason that the 757 had a different nose. It was a better design for the cockpit and the pilots. It also made it internally identical to the 767, allowing the same simulator to be used and a common type-rating.
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Mon May 07, 2012 1:51 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 53):

That's irrelevant. The decisions made by Smisek and his cronies lead to a major loss where UA's competitors (including AMERICAN) didn't lose nearly as much in Q1. This says something about the merger.

I don't think a CO style 737 order like this one is wise at least right now. UA should be more financially conscious, similar to how Delta is doing it.
"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
 
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STT757
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Mon May 07, 2012 2:31 pm

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 59):
The decisions made by Smisek and his cronies lead to a major loss where UA's competitors (including AMERICAN) didn't lose nearly as much in Q1.

Huh?.. UA beat Wall Street's Expectations last quarter , posting a smaller loss than Wall Street projected, if they continue to beat Wall Street expectations for the year it will be a very profitable year for UA as Wall Street is projecting a $1.5 Billion dollar profit for UA.
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Stitch
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Mon May 07, 2012 2:34 pm

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 59):
UA should be more financially conscious, similar to how Delta is doing it.

DL ordered 100 narrowbodies...  
 
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Mon May 07, 2012 2:35 pm

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 59):
That's irrelevant. The decisions made by Smisek and his cronies lead to a major loss where UA's competitors (including AMERICAN) didn't lose nearly as much in Q1. This says something about the merger.

I'm always puzzled on a.net -- first by the members that want all liveries changed and planes repainted immediately -- and second by those who want all the interiors refurbished and IFE upgraded immediately -- *all* using no revenue and at no cost to the stockholders.

Is that *real world?*

Or do hard-core 'tulip' folks simply reject *anything* Continental?

[Edited 2012-05-07 08:20:08]
 
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Polot
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Mon May 07, 2012 2:36 pm

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 59):

I don't think a CO style 737 order like this one is wise at least right now. UA should be more financially conscious, similar to how Delta is doing it.

Like by ordering 100 739ERs?

UA loses money in one quarter (historically one of the weakest) and now the sky is falling.
 
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msp747
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Mon May 07, 2012 2:59 pm

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 52):
Unless Smisek gets discharged as CEO. If UA's quarter performance continues for 2, 3, and 4, I doubt he'll around. Lot's of bad press going on right now about the new UA. We're quickly finding out the CO way isn't always the good way

Didn't UA (the old CO) break out what was merger costs? You can't really judge the earnings right now with what the merger will be in the end. Otherwise, the DL/NW merger would have been a waste. Just look back at their first few earnings reports as a single company
 
tommy767
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Mon May 07, 2012 3:18 pm

Quoting Polot (Reply 63):
Like by ordering 100 739ERs?

Recent. Nearly 2 years after they completed the merger with NW. DL unlike CO did not have ongoing 739ER options (40-50 IIRC) before the merger. They needed something as the domestic fleet was aging much faster than United's. Delta's oldest narrowbodies (besides the D95s which are a novelty at this point) are the M88s, A320s, and 757 -- many from the mid to late 1980s. They have a lot of frames that need to be replaced, but are more conservative with their corresponding orders. United's oldest frame is from 1989, the year they got the 757 delivered but on average has a much younger fleet. Between the 738s, 319, 320 (many from the late 1990s) I'm surprised they are making an order of this magnitude so quickly, especially with the outstanding 739 orders.

Also what is the range for the MAX? You'd figure UA would be more concerned about trying to get Boeing to get that 757 replacement off the ground.

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 62):
I'm always puzzled on a.net

Yeah me too. I go on flyertalk and it's nice to read some of the personal stories regarding the merger integration as opposed to the cool aid that is being consumed on these forums.

[Edited 2012-05-07 08:18:23]
"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
 
windy95
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Mon May 07, 2012 4:09 pm

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 59):

That's irrelevant. The decisions made by Smisek and his cronies lead to a major loss where UA's competitors (including AMERICAN) didn't lose nearly as much in Q1. This says something about the merger

All of the loss was writeoffs and high fuel cost. Nothing to do with the merger not working or decisions by Smisek. Care to tell us hwat decu=ision s that he and his cronies made that lead to this "major" loss.

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 65):
You'd figure UA would be more concerned about trying to get Boeing to get that 757 replacement off the ground.

They already have it with the MAX900ER.
 
ghifty
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Mon May 07, 2012 4:28 pm

How pleasing! I can't wait to see the United blue and tulip on the MAX! The AT Winglets will look goooooorgeous! Oh... nvm.

Quoting kl911 (Reply 13):
Nice for Boeing, but what would make UA switch from A320 to 737? Isnt the 320NEO much more fuel efficient then the MAX?

Not "much more" just "more." I believe the NEO is projected to get at least 20% improved fuel burn over the current A320. The 737 MAX design team is trying to get the air-frame to be around 18% better (fburn wise) over the current A320. Assuming both projects get the minimum/goal, you're looking at a 2% difference. Translates to probably a 12-15m discrepancy between 737 and A320. I assume having a unified Boeing (or Airbus) nullifies that extra cost. Not to mention loyalty discounts and the fact that the A320s on hand are already getting ready for fleet-exit while 737s are still coming in.

Also, CO management would make "UA" switch to 737. 
Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 18):
They used to say, "Try it -- you'll like it."

Boeing is re-planting their seeds! I remember Eastern and Airbus's "trial period."
Fly Delta (Wid)Jets

Comments made here reflect only my personal opinions.
 
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Mon May 07, 2012 4:33 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 58):
However, if Boeing significantly changed the nose (and particularly the shape of the cockpit) of the 737, then there would be a big problem calling it a "737" anymore. Pilots probably couldn't hold a single certificate and fly both types.



The 737 has shown that precedent exists for modifying both cockpit windows (eyebrow deletion) and major changes to instrument displays (multiple times) under the same type certificate. Whose to say where the FAA would draw the line with the proper refresher training?
I have a three post per topic limit. You're welcome to have the last word.
 
tommy767
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Mon May 07, 2012 4:38 pm

Quoting windy95 (Reply 66):
Care to tell us hwat decu=ision s that he and his cronies made that lead to this "major" loss.

SHARES conversion.
"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
 
mogandoCI
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Mon May 07, 2012 4:48 pm

Quoting United1 (Reply 54):
I know it's almost blasphemy to say it on these boards but SMI/J, MCD/D, RAI/J and KEE/J do know what they are doing (as do the other 80,000 United employees.)

Hahaha I love how you type their names like the UA upgrade lists   
 
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Polot
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Mon May 07, 2012 4:53 pm

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 69):
SHARES conversion.

As the two different airlines were on two different reservation systems there were going to be headaches no matter what happened. Could the conversion have happened smoother? Sure. But it is not like it was something that was completely avoidable if not for Smisek and co.
 
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Mon May 07, 2012 6:07 pm

Quoting ghifty (Reply 67):
CO management would make "UA" switch to 737.

Remember -- CO doesn't "own" United.

United is "owned" by United-Continental Holdings that is managed pretty much 50-50 CO and UA.
 
aaexecplat
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Mon May 07, 2012 6:30 pm

Quoting windy95 (Reply 66):
All of the loss was writeoffs and high fuel cost. Nothing to do with the merger not working or decisions by Smisek.

That is incorrect. They raked in an operating loss net of special items. Matter of fact, their operating numbers were worse than AA's.
 
AADC10
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Mon May 07, 2012 7:16 pm

Quoting United787 (Reply 27):
Has United been unhappy with their A320s?

UA dropped their A320 order during Ch. 11 because they needed to quickly cut domestic mainline capacity. There was nothing specifically wrong with them. There is an understandable "buy American" (not AAmerican) preference but as has been repeated many times, the A320 series was the best available narrowbody at the time of the order. That order was one of the events that pushed Boeing to develop the current generation 737.

There are a few flaws in the 737Max: slightly less efficient than the A320neo; narrower seats; no P&W GTF or any orther alternate engine options; but none are deal killers. Back in the day, UA, only a few years divested from Boeing, ordered DC-3s to replace their Boeing 247s because it was a clearly superior aircraft and to stay with Boeing would probably mean going out of business.
 
windy95
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Mon May 07, 2012 7:19 pm

Quoting AAExecplat (Reply 73):
Quoting windy95 (Reply 66):
All of the loss was write offs and high fuel cost. Nothing to do with the merger not working or decisions by Smisek.

That is incorrect. They raked in an operating loss net of special items. Matter of fact, their operating numbers were worse than AA's.




You said I was incorrect but then say the same thing. The operating loss was due to higher fuels prices last quarter and then the special charges added on top.

--United Continental Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: UAL) today reported a first-quarter 2012 net loss of $286 million or $0.87 loss per share

excluding $162 million of net special charges consisting primarily of integration-related costs. Including special charges, UAL reported a first-quarter 2012 net loss of $448 million or $1.36 loss per share.

•First-quarter consolidated fuel expense increased 20.8 percent, or $557 million, year-over-year.

http://ir.unitedcontinentalholdings....-newsArticle&ID=1687732&highlight=

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 69):
SHARES conversion.



Really. You think the operating loss was due to SHARES conversion. Try $105 to $110 dollar a barrel oil with an even higher crack spread on the Jet Fuel.
 
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STT757
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Mon May 07, 2012 10:15 pm

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 65):
Yeah me too. I go on flyertalk and it's nice to read some of the personal stories regarding the merger integration as opposed to the cool aid that is being consumed on these forums.

The whining over at FT has gotten ridiculous, I love how they (and some here) demonize Smisek calling him "bean counter" etc.. This is the guy that approved installing Channel 9 in all of the combined UA's aircraft, including all of PMCO aircraft as well as the aircraft (787s, A350s etc..) on order. Channel 9 earns UA no revenue but costs them money to install, they're doing solely because us aviation fans find it the best in flight entertainment in the skies.
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aaexecplat
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Mon May 07, 2012 10:27 pm

Quoting windy95 (Reply 75):
You said I was incorrect but then say the same thing. The operating loss was due to higher fuels prices last quarter and then the special charges added on top.

The loss was due to a number of reasons. Yes, fuel was more expensive than the prior quarter, but that was the same for every airline out there. The only part of the fuel costs that was "extra" were the $30 million and change that were due to bad hedging strategy on UA's part. That hedging loss doesn't even come close to covering the entirety of the loss. UA did worse than pretty much all its peers in Q1. Let's not put lipstick on that pig.
 
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Mon May 07, 2012 10:27 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 76):
The whining over at FT has gotten ridiculous, I love how they (and some here) demonize Smisek calling him "bean counter" etc..

Frequent fliers always expect upgrades and with this merger they will face more competition for fewer seats. Maybe the flight attendents can use the mood lighting in their new MAX's too calm them down  
 
gigneil
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Tue May 08, 2012 3:36 am

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 59):
That's irrelevant. The decisions made by Smisek and his cronies lead to a major loss where UA's competitors (including AMERICAN) didn't lose nearly as much in Q1. This says something about the merger.

It does not.
 
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Tue May 08, 2012 4:03 am



Quoting tommy767 (Reply 65):
Yeah me too. I go on flyertalk and it's nice to read some of the personal stories regarding the merger integration as opposed to the cool aid that is being consumed on these forums.

One person's Kool-Aid is another person's truth. You don't like the merger, and you don't like the management and therefore, anyone who says anything positive about either or relays anything positive about either must therefore be drinking Kool-Aid.


Quoting tommy767 (Reply 59):
I don't think a CO style 737 order like this one is wise at least right now. UA should be more financially conscious, similar to how Delta is doing it.

Making a large order now for what will be an incredibly popular airframe in the 737 MAX makes tremendous sense, especially when you consider that slots on the manufacturing line will fill up pretty rapidly. If they don't place an order they're essentially shut out from a large acquisition for a good chunk of the near term. Of course if they didn't place an order you and others on here probably would be griping that they have no near or long term narrow body replacement plan. I'm willing to be that they would be damned if they do, and damned if they don't with you.

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 69):
Quoting windy95 (Reply 66):
Care to tell us hwat decu=ision s that he and his cronies made that lead to this "major" loss.

SHARES conversion.

So would you have preferred they made no conversion at all, and ran two separate systems in perpetuity?

Quoting United1 (Reply 54):
I know it's almost blasphemy to say it on these boards but SMI/J, MCD/D, RAI/J and KEE/J do know what they are doing (as do the other 80,000 United employees.)

It totally is, because then what would people on here second guess and complain about??  

[Edited 2012-05-07 21:28:03]
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Tue May 08, 2012 4:09 am

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 65):
Recent. Nearly 2 years after they completed the merger with NW. DL unlike CO did not have ongoing 739ER options (40-50 IIRC) before the merger. They needed something as the domestic fleet was aging much faster than United's. Delta's oldest narrowbodies (besides the D95s which are a novelty at this point) are the M88s, A320s, and 757 -- many from the mid to late 1980s. They have a lot of frames that need to be replaced, but are more conservative with their corresponding orders. United's oldest frame is from 1989, the year they got the 757 delivered but on average has a much younger fleet. Between the 738s, 319, 320 (many from the late 1990s) I'm surprised they are making an order of this magnitude so quickly, especially with the outstanding 739 orders.

Every fleet is different and not every carrier will do things the same. I'm not clear on why Delta is necessarily "smart" to keep older frames when AA is "dumb" to keep older frames. UA (actually CO) seemed to like to have a constant stream of new builds coming in. Ditto WN at most times. Other carriers didn't. Oh well....

Besides, the MAX aircraft are quite a few years from first delivery. You can add five years to the age of those older frames by the time the MAX fleet starts rolling in.

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 65):

Yeah me too. I go on flyertalk and it's nice to read some of the personal stories regarding the merger integration as opposed to the cool aid that is being consumed on these forums.

Well, if they are saying what you want to hear, I guess it'd be nice to read.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
ck8msp
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Tue May 15, 2012 12:20 am

No recent news? Funny how there is so much chatter as if a deal was imminent and then silence. Thought this would have been announced by now/
 
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rotating14
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Tue May 15, 2012 12:28 am

Quoting ck8msp (Reply 82):

Same here. I thought something would be finalized by now, oh well.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Tue May 15, 2012 12:33 am

Farnborough is only two months away so perhaps UA wants to announce it there.

After Airbus' A320neo order romp in Paris last year, I could see Boeing wanting to do the same this year.
 
fpetrutiu
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Tue May 15, 2012 1:14 am

It appears that you are right, UA still holds 42 options for A319/320 aicraft, however, according to their latest 10Q (source: http://investing.businessweek.com/re...=10-Q#D316621D10Q_HTM_TX316621_3), they clearly state that they are in negotiations with Boeing for 787 delay compensations and wonder if the NB order will be part of that package. One has to wonder... I think Boeing will be in in a possition to make UA a deal they cannot refuse. I see this order going through.
Florin
Orlando, FL
 
gigneil
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RE: Reuters: UA Puts Final Touches On Major 737 Order

Tue May 15, 2012 1:44 am

Leeham tends to agree with you. Word is that they're not going to allow another AA in this situation.

I just can't get over how uncomfortable the UA 737s are now, and I'm hoping that the new United at least puts pleasant seats in them going forward.

I'm unsure if I've been in one of the ones with the B/E seats. Its just the Recaro seats are so much more pleasant.

(yes, i am aware that whether its a 737 or an A320, it is totally up to UA to make them comfortable on the inside).

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