There's a little too much parsing going on of Lund's words. She means 25 airlines, not 25 planes.
Now as far as that list...
You can discount these carriers right away - they don't have funds, don't need the capacity, or aren't interested in buying new:
1a Air Atlanta Icelandic 8
24. Orient Thai Airlines 2
26. Phuket Airlines 3
28. Pullmantur Air 4
13. Corsair International 4
39. World Airways 4
16a. Evergreen 4
20. Lion Air 2
Not sure why Evergreen is listed as "16a" - Evergreen isn't connected with EVA air.
I think you can discount these carriers as well:
2. Air France 12
3. Air Hong Kong 3
4. Air India 5
5. Air New Zealand 4
7. All Nippon Airlines 7
12. China Southern Airline 2
17. Garuda indonesia 3
21. Malaysia Airlines 14
22. Martinair 3
seems pretty committed to a strategy of A380 77W.
Air Hong Kong's fleet is dependent on Cathay. 744 and A300 for the foreseeable future.
Air India can barely get it together to accept the 787, and can't seem to shed it's parked 744s. Never say never, but certainly say "not anytime soon."
probably doesn't need that much capacity, and seems interested primarily in replacing the 744 with the 77W.
is almost out of the VLA game, at least for now, and has replaced capacity with the 77W. Never say never, but the A380 would be a better bet for either ANA or JAL to replace the old 744D's simply because it offers a capacity advantage. Neither carrier seems interested in this right now, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.
China Southern has the A380 for passenger use, the 77LRF as a newer freighter, and two pretty new 744Fs. I don't see replacement on the horizon for awhile.
If Garuda needed a VLA, I think it would come from Airbus. That's just my personal opinion, and Garuda does buy Boeing too. But with Garuda's potential markets and their VLA's likely being for shorter hauls in the future, the A380 seems like a better bet.
has chosen the A380. They'll keep the 744s for awhile, because they're paid off. But a new expenditure, doesn't seem likely.
is operating a number of things within the AF
-KLM group, but probably wouldn't itself place an order for the 747-8F. MP
will eventually need to replace the MD
-11 but the 77LRF seems more likely for that, and the 747s can go on for quite awhile. What MP
does might also depend on what KLM does with regard to the 744Ms, which can't go on forever.
Here's an interesting pair:
35. TNT Airways 4
37. UPS 13
Now that UPS is purchasing TNT, future purchases here would be controlled by UPS. The 747-8F is a definite possibility here.
Some you can't rule out, but don't seem likely at this point:
14. Delta Airlines 16
16. Eva Air 16
18. Kalitta Air 8
27. Polar Air Cargo 6
33. Southern Air 4
34. Thai Airways 18
36. United Airlines 26
38. Virgin Atlantic 12
/UA - they've been discussed at length. If it does happen, it won't be right now.
seems content to replace all the pax 747s with 77W's and standardize on that type. The 744F, that's something they'll look at in the future when cargo demand increases, but probably not soon. The 77LRF as an MD
-11/747BCF replacement, now that's a more relevant discussion, but not for here.
Kalitta Air generally does not buy new equipment, but if the right contract came along, maybe. Seems likely they'd continue with 744s though, especially as prices are falling.
Any orders for Polar would likely come in conjunction with Atlas.
Southern has also recently bolstered its fleet with 744 conversions. Not sure the need is there for such a big outlay, especially considering they've just boosted their 777F fleet. Used 744F's seem more likely if they need.
has chosen the A380, which narrows the window considerably for the 748. Like a BR
747-8, it would be a very pretty bird, but that doesn't put money in the bank account.
, well, it could happen. They've ordered the A380 but it seems unlikely to materialize. They are competing with a fleet of aging quads. It's unclear what the strategy is, but I don't know enough about their business to say one way or another. Seems like the 77W or 777NG would be a good choice for them, too.
An order seems to be in the offing pending government approval.
Airlines that will certainly look at freighters when cargo demand increases:
8. Asiana Airlines 12
32. Singapore Airlines 16
10. China Airlines 33
11. China Cargo Airlines 5
As far as passenger frames, I could see OZ
being a more likely customer. OZ
's combined A380 and 747-8i fleet, but probably wouldn't operate both itself. SQ
is committed to the A380 for pax.
6. Air Pacific 2
15. El Al 7
25. Phillipine Airlines 5
29. Qantas 27
30. Saudi Arabian Airlines 4 (plus 6 leased from Air Atlanta Icelandic and 1 from Evergreen)
31. Silk Way Airlines 2
40. Yangtze River Express 4
Air Pacific I don't know enough about to make any kind of judgment.
El Al would certainly want them, and kind of needs them. But whether they have the capital, don't know.
Qantas - not right now, certainly. But I don't think it can be completely ruled out.
seems to want to replace older 747s with the 77W, and the A380 doesn't seem un-natural for them. But it's alot of capacity that maybe they don't need. They don't only order things for practical reasons, however.
Silk Way could be a customer. With AirBridge having them, and cargo demand increasing in that part of the world, Silk Way could be a potential sleeper candidate for the 747-8F. Wouldn't be right away, however, and it wouldn't be a big order.
YRE might be interested, but probably not right away. I could see them graduating to the 748F, however. For many 744F operators, the 748F replacement is a question of when, not if. "When" might be ten years from now, but it's the only game in town for that kind of capacity and likely to remain so.
Big question marks, to my mind:
9. British Airways 55 (incl. 3 parked)
19. KLM 26
Cathay Pacific (not on the list)
- Everybody says it won't happen, and maybe it won't. But replace this entire fleet with 77W and A380? That's why people keep asking the question. I'd love to see it happen, but that doesn't mean it's a good (or bad) idea.
- If Boeing would be willing to certify a 747-8M, They'd do it. I think though, that the days of factory combis are done, and with KL
being the only potential customer for this, it likely wouldn't make sense for Boeing to engineer it. KL
/MP might also be interested in the 748F, but only once cargo traffic increases. KLM doesn't seem interested in the A380 and they'll need to do something eventually if they can't get a new 747 combi as they use quite a few of them. One potential answer is 77F orders for MP
and more 77W for KL
. Very few of KL
's 744s are pure pax - 77W seems the likely replacement there.
- they're operating the freighter, they seem to like it. They need a 744 replacement eventually.