Oykie
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Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 12:17 pm

Flightglobal says that:

Quote:
"In the last 30 days, we have put out 25 proposals for aircraft [to a number of airlines]," says 747 programme manager Elizabeth Lund.
Quote:
Airlines with existing 747-400 fleets are prime sales targets. "We're having conversations about where the -8 may fit in," Lund says. "[Boeing] feels the 747-8I is a viable aircraft for all long-haul decisions."

Does anyone know who those 25 airlines might be? I will start by listing current 744 operators. I have tried to drop airlines that currently flies the 744 and has ordered the 748, but please correct the list is you see any errors. I am not sure if I have gotten all 744 airlines in this list. The list includes both passenger as well as freighter versions. 25 proposals are a lot of potential orders and it will be interesting to see how many will eventually place an order for the 747-8.

1. Air China
2. Air France
3. Air Hong Kong
4. Air India
5. Air New Zealand
6. Air Pacific
7. All Nippon Airlines
8. Asiana Airlines
9. British Airways
10. China Airlines
11. China Cargo Airlines
12. China Southern Airlines
13. Corsair International
14. Delta Airlines
15. El Al
16. Eva Air
17. Garuda indonesia
18. Kalitta Air
19. KLM
20. Lion Air
21. Malaysia Airlines
22. Martinair
23. MaxAir
24. Orient Thai Airlines
25. Phillipine Airlines
26. Phuket airlines
27. Polar Air Cargo
28. Pullmantur Air
29. Qantas
30. Saudi Arabian Airlines
31. Silk Way Airlines
32. Singapore Airlines
33. Southern Air
34. Thai Airways
35. TNT Airways
36. United Airlines
37. UPS
38. Virgin Atlantic
39. World Airways
40. Yangtze River Express
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rjm777ual
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 12:33 pm

Wasn't surprised to see some of the old 744 carriers on there, such as UA, Virgin, and Qantas. I think that some of these carriers would do great with the 748.
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 1:08 pm

She mentioned she felt that Chinese airlines would be the bulk of the orders for the type, so I am guessing they're talking with all the Chinese-flagged carriers.
 
Jet-lagged
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 1:31 pm

It sounds like Boeing hasn't been asked for the proposals and rather they are prospecting. But I wish them luck.
 
jfk777
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 1:35 pm

That list reads as existng or future 777-300ER operators.
 
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ER757
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 2:07 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
She mentioned she felt that Chinese airlines would be the bulk of the orders for the type, so I am guessing they're talking with all the Chinese-flagged carriers.

Air China and Hong Kong Airlines have orders already, "pending government approval." Both are quite old, I'd be a little concerned about them ever being finalized if I were Boeing. Is Arik Air's order firm? Transaero has four on order as well IIRC.
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 2:09 pm

If half of that list ordered an average of 12 airplanes each, that would be 204 airplanes (both "F" and "I"). But I would not rule out LH exercising their 20 options, nor rule out KE not topping off their order.
 
RickNRoll
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 2:15 pm

Quoting rjm777ual (Reply 1):

Wasn't surprised to see some of the old 744 carriers on there, such as UA, Virgin, and Qantas. I think that some of these carriers would do great with the 748.

Qantas won't be ordering 748, ever.
 
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 2:19 pm

Quoting ER757 (Reply 5):
Is Arik Air's order firm?

Yes, it was added to the Boeing O&D spreadsheet on 15 June 2011

Quoting ER757 (Reply 5):
Air China and Hong Kong Airlines have orders already, "pending government approval." Both are quite old, I'd be a little concerned about them ever being finalized if I were Boeing.

These have been outstanding for awhile, however, we've never heard of any reversal of these MoU's so they are still pending. These recent proposals appear to be totally new requests from carriers.
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 2:25 pm

Quoting ER757 (Reply 5):
Air China and Hong Kong Airlines have orders already, "pending government approval." Both are quite old, I'd be a little concerned about them ever being finalized if I were Boeing.

One major Chinese order was not firmed until three years after the MoU was signed, so if they're still pending around 2020, I'll be concerned.  
Quoting ER757 (Reply 5):
Is Arik Air's order firm?

Yes. They were originally placed as a UFO order in June and then identified in October.



Quoting ER757 (Reply 5):
Transaero has four on order as well IIRC.

Currently still an MoU.
 
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 2:41 pm

Quoting oykie (Thread starter):
Does anyone know who those 25 airlines might be?

Given that CX has publicly stated that they'll be making their decision on a VLA this year, I'd think that CX would be one of those carriers that Boeing are speaking to.

Quoting RickNRoll (Reply 7):
Qantas won't be ordering 748, ever.

Can I borrow that time machine you're using?

It's strange that some people can say with such certainty what the future holds. The 748i fits in a gap between the 450-seat A380 and the 297-seat A330. Currently, the current A380 operators has either ordered the 748i (LH, KE) or has a 744 / 77W / A346 as the next step down in size, all of which are significantly larger than an A333 / 787-9. I can't see QF not ordering a 748i (or 777-9X / A350-1000, but that's for another thread) to fill in the gap that the 744 / 744ER will leave when they're retired.
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 2:54 pm

Quoting RickNRoll (Reply 7):
Qantas won't be ordering 748, ever.

It does sounds like the days when we heard that LH was moving towards a single manufacturer fleet, doesn't it?  
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mham001
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 3:09 pm

I read that as proposals for 25 planes. That's why she said "to a number of airlines."
 
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RayChuang
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 3:26 pm

I still think that both Delta and United Airlines are still on the short list of airlines that may buy the 747-8I. Remember, both airlines have substantial transpacific routes, and I'm not sure if the seating capacity of the 777-300ER or A350-1000 is enough for such transpacific traffic.
 
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scbriml
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 3:26 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 6):
If half of that list ordered an average of 12 airplanes each, that would be 204 airplanes

Pure fantasy, IMHO.

Quoting mham001 (Reply 12):
I read that as proposals for 25 planes. That's why she said "to a number of airlines."

That was the way I read it as well, hence my first point.   
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 3:32 pm

In LH's case, the A380-800 looks to be a replacement for their "high-capacity" (8F | 52C | 310Y and 8F | 66C | 279Y) 747-400s whereas the 747-8 is designed to replace their "low-capacity" models (8F | 80C | 234Y). The 747-8 will seat 100 less in Economy than the A380-800.

It will be interesting to see how KE configures their 747-8, considering how low-density their A380-800 will be in comparison to LH (over 100 less Economy seats). KE fits 10 of their suites in the nose of the 747-400, so the 747-8 could hold the same. The 4.1m forward stretch could allow two more rows of seats on both decks, so that would increase Prestige Class to 83. And the aft stretch could add one more row of Economy, pushing that to 272. So total seating would be 365 - compared to the A380, it would be 2 less First Class, 31 less Prestige Class and 29 less Economy Class.

Such a configuration strikes me as inefficient - I would think the A380 would be better, overall, unless KE needs the hold space the 747-8 offers. So perhaps KE will reduce the Business Class seating (say run it only between Doors 1 and 2 on the lower deck) and increase the Economy seating and deploy it in the opposite way LH does - sending them where Economy traffic is strong, rather than weak.

So let's look at QF.

If QF ordered the 747-8, I could see them employing it in the same way as LH - where premium cabin traffic is strong, but Economy cabin traffic is weaker. Using the 747-400ER cabin layout as the foundation, a 747-8 would be 14F | 88J | 50Y+ | 187Y for a total of 339. That would be the same number of First Class seats as the A380 with 16 less Business Class, 18 less Premium Economy and 145 less Economy.

But does QF have long-haul international routes where premium cabin capacity is strong and Economy is weak(ish)? And if they do, are they in sufficient number to warrant a sub-fleet of 747-8s? If they do not, then the A380 as their sole VLA makes sense.


As to Elizabeth Lund's comments, her wording is strange. You'd think she'd say "we put out proposals for 25 airplanes to a number of airlines" rather then "25 proposals to a number of airlines" if she meant they are looking to sell 25 airframes to a number of airlines as opposed to looking to sell airframes to 25 airlines.

[Edited 2012-05-06 08:36:00]
 
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 3:37 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 14):
That was the way I read it as well, hence my first point.

I read it that way too. A few airlines where the sum of the potential 748 orders is 25. Not horrid... not earth shattering either.

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 13):
I still think that both Delta and United Airlines are still on the short list of airlines that may buy the 747-8I.

IMHO, we would be talking larger numbers. DL seems to have avoided new aircraft decisions. We'll see more in a year or two, but not now. UA... I definitely see potential there.


I also see a mission for BA from LGW and certain LHR routes. With the new BMI slots, I suspect their chances in the long term just rose. However, for now BA will focus on consolidating BMI within their operations.

This just isn't a great year to sell VLAs.

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mark2fly1034
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 3:40 pm

It seems like a bad time for the long haul market what they need to do is make a direct 757 replacement i know there is the 737max but they should do a 757Max I could see that being a hit in the us. Was the 787 to replace the 767 at all because some of them are getting dated.
 
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 3:44 pm

I will say the newly merged United will place some orders for the 747-8i sooner or later as I don't see them buying A380s.

  
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GCPET
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 4:10 pm

I think British Airways is Boeing dreaming sadly   The 744 is the Queen of the Skies in a BA livery (in my opinion)  but sadly I don't think it will happen unless there were RR's under the wings and I think the 77W's have been given the job as the replacement of the 744  

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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 4:35 pm

Probably heavily focused on Asia, plus IAG and South African. I doubt LAN would be interested any time soon.
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vv701
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 4:37 pm

To hang some frame numbers on the list provided by oykie:

1a Air Atlanta Icelandic 8
1. Air China 9
2. Air France 12
3. Air Hong Kong 3
4. Air India 5
5. Air New Zealand 4
6. Air Pacific 2
7. All Nippon Airlines 7
8. Asiana Airlines 12
9. British Airways 55 (incl. 3 parked)
10. China Airlines 33
11. China Cargo Airlines 5
12. China Southern Airline 2
13. Corsair International 4
14. Delta Airlines 16
15. El Al 7
16. Eva Air 16
16a. Evergreen 4
17. Garuda indonesia 3
18. Kalitta Air 8
19. KLM 26
20. Lion Air 2
21. Malaysia Airlines 14
22. Martinair 3
23. MaxAir ?
24. Orient Thai Airlines 2
25. Phillipine Airlines 5
26. Phuket Airlines 3
27. Polar Air Cargo 6
28. Pullmantur Air 4
29. Qantas 27
30. Saudi Arabian Airlines 4 (plus 6 leased from Air Atlanta Icelandic and 1 from Evergreen)
31. Silk Way Airlines 2
32. Singapore Airlines 16
33. Southern Air 4
34. Thai Airways 18
35. TNT Airways 4
36. United Airlines 26
37. UPS 13
38. Virgin Atlantic 12
39. World Airways 4
40. Yangtze River Express 4

Updates / corrections welcome!
 
MadameConcorde
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 4:44 pm

Qatar Amiri bought himself a 747-8i and you don't think Qatar Airways will have them on order?

That would be the strangest thing!

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richardw
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 5:04 pm

Does BA have a significant number of F class frequent flyers on some routes that demand B747 F class above other aircraft that would mean ordering B748 would maintain long term customer loyalty?
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 5:06 pm

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 22):
Qatar Amiri bought himself a 747-8i and you don't think Qatar Airways will have them on order?

Even if QR defers their A380-800s until Airbus has a manufacturing fix in place (so their frames do not need to be patched in situ), I do not see them adding the 747-8.


Quoting GCPET (Reply 19):
I think British Airways is Boeing dreaming, sadly.    

It's more Boeing (and BA) fans dreaming. I've been told by folks who were privy to the decision that it was a close one, but having made the decision in favor of the A380-800, that ended the chances of the 747-8 and Boeing know it. But hey, there are the BA World Cargo freighters in full BA livery.   

Like QF, I'm not sure where the 747-8 would fit into British Airways' fleet now that they have added the A380-800. I'm just guessing here, but I expect we'll see BA's A380-800s at around 450-470 seats with both heavy premium and Economy seating (over a dozen FIRST, close to 100 Club World, around 50 World Traveller Plus and 300 World Traveller).

But as one door closes, another opens. I cannot see BA effectively deploying almost five dozen A380-800s and therefore I could believe a BA order for a few dozen 777-9s with total seating capacity similar to the "Low-J" 747-400 or the 777-300ER (with the extra space going to WT+ or WT seating).

[Edited 2012-05-06 10:09:33]
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 5:39 pm

Quoting GCPET (Reply 19):
I think British Airways is Boeing dreaming sadly The 744 is the Queen of the Skies in a BA livery (in my opinion) but sadly I don't think it will happen unless there were RR's under the wings and I think the 77W's have been given the job as the replacement of the 744

Well, you can get an idea of what a B-748I would look like in BA colors, as their cargo division now flies 3 B-747-8Fs on lease from 5Y.

They have GE engines, as does the BA B-77Ws and some of their B-77Es. Having RR engines as an option for BA to order an airplane is ok, but it is not a deal maker or breaker.
 
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 5:48 pm

Quoting VV701 (Reply 21):
32. Singapore Airlines 16

Singapore Airlines is down to zero 744s now. I think AI is also down to close to zero.
 
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 5:52 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 15):
Quoting mham001 (Reply 12):
I read that as proposals for 25 planes. That's why she said "to a number of airlines."

That was the way I read it as well, hence my first point.   

The text says "25 proposals". Unless each plane is a proposal (when does that happen for a non VIP?) it probably means 25 proposals. I doubt a program manager would make that error. Also 25 aircraft total to "a number of airlines" considering options, etc. sounds a bit small even for this case. It's barely half of the LH order.

Quoting jet-lagged (Reply 3):

It sounds like Boeing hasn't been asked for the proposals and rather they are prospecting. But I wish them luck.

This is more likely I think than 25 planes. There could be many unsolicited proposals in the lot. If Boeing had been answering Requests For Proposals (RFP's), I think they would have said so. On the other hand, maybe the 748 niche is starting to show it's legs a little bit after F/I EOS. News has been good on the Airframe.
 
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 6:09 pm

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 18):
I will say the newly merged United will place some orders for the 747-8i sooner or later as I don't see them buying A380s.

I hope you're right, as I'd love to see United flying the 748, however, I think they're pretty grounded with their decision of the A350-900 replacing their 744's.
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 6:11 pm

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 13):
I still think that both Delta and United Airlines are still on the short list of airlines that may buy the 747-8I. Remember, both airlines have substantial transpacific routes, and I'm not sure if the seating capacity of the 777-300ER or A350-1000 is enough for such transpacific traffic.

A.netters love to write off U.S. carriers' interest in the 748, citing the presence of the 773, and a pile of other aircraft that exist only on designers' computer networks. While I can't really speak for DL (and with a AA-US-Airbus marriage in the works, I'd all but dismiss them as a prospective carrier), I think the 748 would be a great fit for UA. They wouldn't necessarily need to replace their entire 744 fleet, but instead, could probably get by with about 12-15 to serve high traffic, low frequency routes: LAX/SFO-SYD/MEL, and LAX-PEK come to mind. Given the right deal (Boeing is no doubt eager to get the ball rolling), I wouldn't be at all surprised to see some on UA's sheet, particularly as some of their more vintage 744s near their D checks.

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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 6:17 pm

Quoting VV701 (Reply 21):
To hang some frame numbers on the list provided by oykie:



5. Air New Zealand 4

I see NZ going with a round number of frames .... "0" is a round number. They are committed to a 777/787 fleet and have absolutely no need for a sub-fleet of 748-i.

Doh! I Just realised that you were talking about current 744 fleet numbers, not anticipated 747-8i orders, my apologies.

Anyway, NZ is now down to 3, and very shortly down to 2 744, the last two, from what I understand, will hang around until the eventual 787-9 deliveries in a couple of years time. After that I assume they will be scrapped and the days of the quad at NZ will be over.

[Edited 2012-05-06 11:31:15]
 
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 6:20 pm

Quoting RickNRoll (Reply 7):
Qantas won't be ordering 748, ever.

I agree with you. We won't be seeing a 748 with a Qantas livery on it. Like SQ and other carriers, they've invested heavily in the A380 programme, and are satisfied with that bird.
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 6:30 pm

Quoting PPVRA (Reply 20):
I doubt LAN would be interested any time soon.

Even though LAN is committed to a wide-body passenger fleet of B763s and B787s; LAN could be very interested in the B77W, since LAN Cargo already operates B777Fs and the B77W will be part of LATAM's fleet...
 
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 6:33 pm

Out of all of the PAX operators, I'll judge the airlines I'm familiar with - in my opinion - if the airline would be a good candidate for the 748 or not.

Quoting oykie (Thread starter):
1. Air China
2. Air France
3. Air Hong Kong
4. Air India
5. Air New Zealand
6. Air Pacific
7. All Nippon Airlines
8. Asiana Airlines
9. British Airways
10. China Airlines
11. China Cargo Airlines
12. China Southern Airlines
13. Corsair International
14. Delta Airlines
15. El Al
16. Eva Air
17. Garuda indonesia
18. Kalitta Air
19. KLM
20. Lion Air
21. Malaysia Airlines
22. Martinair
23. MaxAir
24. Orient Thai Airlines
25. Phillipine Airlines
26. Phuket airlines
27. Polar Air Cargo
28. Pullmantur Air
29. Qantas
30. Saudi Arabian Airlines
31. Silk Way Airlines
32. Singapore Airlines
33. Southern Air
34. Thai Airways
35. TNT Airways
36. United Airlines
37. UPS
38. Virgin Atlantic
39. World Airways
40. Yangtze River Express

Air China: possible
Air France: Maybe not, especially with 5 more A380s on the way
Air India: maybe...I'd say 50/50 in the next 10 years.
Air New Zealand: I'd again say 50/50 post-current 747 retirement, but at the same time, they have a large 777 fleet
ANA: No, their 747s are domestic only, and don't really need them IMO
BA: I think they'll order some 748 pax versions eventually. They rely so much on the 744 so i'd not be surprised.
DL: I highly doubt it, sadly. I do think their current 744s are good for their routes, but if a 777X is produced, DL will buy that.
KLM: most likely no.
Qantas: yea, i think so, in the next 10 years or so. Since Australia is so out of the way, they're gonna need a 744 replacement soon.
Saudia: I'm surprised they haven't ordered it yet....or maybe I should say that about EK   
Singapore: Nope, not gonna do it. Since they retired their 744 with no direct replacement, they won't take the 748.
UA: same with DL, maybe not. They have a large order of 788s on the way.
Virgin: Didn't they already order it? If not, they will soon.

  
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deputydawghere
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 6:41 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 33):
Qantas: yea, i think so, in the next 10 years or so. Since Australia is so out of the way, they're gonna need a 744 replacement soon.


QF already has a 744 replacement, the A380.
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 6:51 pm

Quoting deputydawghere (Reply 28):
I hope you're right, as I'd love to see United flying the 748

It would certainly fit their TransPacs rather well and they have a good number of them.

Even they buy Airbii they will still buy from Boeing. The 747-8i is a perfect fit for the new merged airline.

  
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trex8
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 6:56 pm

If the USG comes through with new build F16s (in addition to the already approved F16 upgrades) and tech support for a Taiwanese submarine construction program expect @30 747-8s for CI. They have 13 pax and 20 freighters to replace at some point.
 
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totesen
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 7:05 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 33):
KLM: most likely no.

What is KLM´s replacement plan for the 744? The 777-300er? also i know that because of new rules new aircraft cannot operate as combi. but KLM has a lot of combi 747, i think it is close to ten. and for example here in Mexico City they operate them daily, i dont imagine them sending a 777-300ER here, because it has too much passenger capacity and because MEX is a hot and high airport, it would not operate under optimal cargo conditions. i think the 748 would be a good fit for KLM since the 747 is the backbone of their intercontinental operation, but again. too bad that it is not posible to have a combi 748i. i think that both KLM and AF would benefit from it.
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 7:38 pm

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 35):
The 747-8i is a perfect fit for the new merged airline.

Yes it would be, especially for destinations such as SYD and AKL, among others.
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AF022
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 7:42 pm

Can someone summarize the difference between 748 and 77W? I don't have that much experience here, but it sounds like 77W is better aircraft all around. Where are the benefits of the 748?
 
SASMD82
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 7:52 pm

We can exclude operators who operate both B77W and A380 along with another wide body jet. Too many aircraft types, too many additional costs.

Personally I love the 747 but I think time has come that the 77W has taken over the crown in the 350 passenger long haul segment. The A380 is leader in the 500 passenger + segment. I don't think there is plenty room in between.
 
deputydawghere
Posts: 148
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 7:54 pm

Quoting AF022 (Reply 39):
Can someone summarize the difference between 748 and 77W? I don't have that much experience here, but it sounds like 77W is better aircraft all around. Where are the benefits of the 748?

I'm not an expert on the engineering of planes, but know the 748 has composite materials built into it, thus resulting in a reduced fuel burn to its predecessor, the 744.
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deputydawghere
Posts: 148
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 7:55 pm

Quoting SASMD82 (Reply 40):
Personally I love the 747 but I think time has come that the 77W has taken over the crown in the 350 passenger long haul segment. The A380 is leader in the 500 passenger + segment. I don't think there is plenty room in between.

There is definitely room for frames carrying a pax load of 350 to 500 in the airline industry.
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Mike909
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 7:59 pm

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 30):
Anyway, NZ is now down to 3, and very shortly down to 2 744, the last two, from what I understand, will hang around until the eventual 787-9 deliveries in a couple of years time. After that I assume they will be scrapped and the days of the quad at NZ will be over.

Was gonna say the same thing! Do you know how many options NZ has for more 77W's?
Would be brilliant to see 748s in NZ colours, but as you said, won't happen.

Quoting VV701 (Reply 21):
15. El Al 7

I can quite see LY ordering some 748s in the future. They are loyal Boeing customer, so A380 or A359 replacements are out of question. Always a lot of speculation as to when they will replenish their fleet. I see LY possible placing order for 748 as some point.
 
PHX787
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 8:01 pm

Quoting deputydawghere (Reply 34):
QF already has a 744 replacement, the A380.

I forgot about that. Completely forgot. Thanks.

Quoting totesen (Reply 37):
What is KLM´s replacement plan for the 744?

They don't rely so much on the 744 anymore. I don't think they need to.

Quoting Mike909 (Reply 43):
I can quite see LY ordering some 748s in the future. They are loyal Boeing customer,

  
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sstsomeday
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 8:17 pm

My feeling is that the 747-8, all other things being equal, would fill a very small niche between the 380 and the 777.

HOWEVER - The wild card could be the -8 coming in with VERY competitive fuel burn / operating costs (Once they get the groning-pains weight down.) Wasn't Boeing at one point touting better projected fuel efficiency per seat on the 747-8 than the 380? I wonder if some airlines who have not decided are waiting for this data.
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cargolex
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 8:20 pm

There's a little too much parsing going on of Lund's words. She means 25 airlines, not 25 planes.

Now as far as that list...

You can discount these carriers right away - they don't have funds, don't need the capacity, or aren't interested in buying new:

Quote:

1a Air Atlanta Icelandic 8
24. Orient Thai Airlines 2
26. Phuket Airlines 3
28. Pullmantur Air 4
13. Corsair International 4
39. World Airways 4
16a. Evergreen 4
20. Lion Air 2

Not sure why Evergreen is listed as "16a" - Evergreen isn't connected with EVA air.

I think you can discount these carriers as well:

Quote:

2. Air France 12
3. Air Hong Kong 3
4. Air India 5
5. Air New Zealand 4
7. All Nippon Airlines 7
12. China Southern Airline 2
17. Garuda indonesia 3
21. Malaysia Airlines 14
22. Martinair 3

AF seems pretty committed to a strategy of A380 77W.

Air Hong Kong's fleet is dependent on Cathay. 744 and A300 for the foreseeable future.

Air India can barely get it together to accept the 787, and can't seem to shed it's parked 744s. Never say never, but certainly say "not anytime soon."

NZ probably doesn't need that much capacity, and seems interested primarily in replacing the 744 with the 77W.

NH is almost out of the VLA game, at least for now, and has replaced capacity with the 77W. Never say never, but the A380 would be a better bet for either ANA or JAL to replace the old 744D's simply because it offers a capacity advantage. Neither carrier seems interested in this right now, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.

China Southern has the A380 for passenger use, the 77LRF as a newer freighter, and two pretty new 744Fs. I don't see replacement on the horizon for awhile.

If Garuda needed a VLA, I think it would come from Airbus. That's just my personal opinion, and Garuda does buy Boeing too. But with Garuda's potential markets and their VLA's likely being for shorter hauls in the future, the A380 seems like a better bet.

MH has chosen the A380. They'll keep the 744s for awhile, because they're paid off. But a new expenditure, doesn't seem likely.

MP is operating a number of things within the AF-KLM group, but probably wouldn't itself place an order for the 747-8F. MP will eventually need to replace the MD-11 but the 77LRF seems more likely for that, and the 747s can go on for quite awhile. What MP does might also depend on what KLM does with regard to the 744Ms, which can't go on forever.


Here's an interesting pair:

Quote:

35. TNT Airways 4
37. UPS 13

Now that UPS is purchasing TNT, future purchases here would be controlled by UPS. The 747-8F is a definite possibility here.

Some you can't rule out, but don't seem likely at this point:

Quote:

14. Delta Airlines 16
16. Eva Air 16
18. Kalitta Air 8
27. Polar Air Cargo 6
33. Southern Air 4
34. Thai Airways 18
36. United Airlines 26
38. Virgin Atlantic 12

DL/UA - they've been discussed at length. If it does happen, it won't be right now.

BR seems content to replace all the pax 747s with 77W's and standardize on that type. The 744F, that's something they'll look at in the future when cargo demand increases, but probably not soon. The 77LRF as an MD-11/747BCF replacement, now that's a more relevant discussion, but not for here.

Kalitta Air generally does not buy new equipment, but if the right contract came along, maybe. Seems likely they'd continue with 744s though, especially as prices are falling.

Any orders for Polar would likely come in conjunction with Atlas.

Southern has also recently bolstered its fleet with 744 conversions. Not sure the need is there for such a big outlay, especially considering they've just boosted their 777F fleet. Used 744F's seem more likely if they need.

TG has chosen the A380, which narrows the window considerably for the 748. Like a BR 747-8, it would be a very pretty bird, but that doesn't put money in the bank account.

VS, well, it could happen. They've ordered the A380 but it seems unlikely to materialize. They are competing with a fleet of aging quads. It's unclear what the strategy is, but I don't know enough about their business to say one way or another. Seems like the 77W or 777NG would be a good choice for them, too.

That leaves:

Quote:

1. Air China 9

An order seems to be in the offing pending government approval.

Airlines that will certainly look at freighters when cargo demand increases:

Quote:

8. Asiana Airlines 12
32. Singapore Airlines 16
10. China Airlines 33
11. China Cargo Airlines 5

As far as passenger frames, I could see OZ and CI looking, CI being a more likely customer. OZ faces KE's combined A380 and 747-8i fleet, but probably wouldn't operate both itself. SQ is committed to the A380 for pax.

That leaves:

Quote:

6. Air Pacific 2
15. El Al 7
25. Phillipine Airlines 5
29. Qantas 27
30. Saudi Arabian Airlines 4 (plus 6 leased from Air Atlanta Icelandic and 1 from Evergreen)
31. Silk Way Airlines 2
40. Yangtze River Express 4

Air Pacific I don't know enough about to make any kind of judgment.

El Al would certainly want them, and kind of needs them. But whether they have the capital, don't know.

PAL seems interested.

Qantas - not right now, certainly. But I don't think it can be completely ruled out.

SV seems to want to replace older 747s with the 77W, and the A380 doesn't seem un-natural for them. But it's alot of capacity that maybe they don't need. They don't only order things for practical reasons, however.

Silk Way could be a customer. With AirBridge having them, and cargo demand increasing in that part of the world, Silk Way could be a potential sleeper candidate for the 747-8F. Wouldn't be right away, however, and it wouldn't be a big order.

YRE might be interested, but probably not right away. I could see them graduating to the 748F, however. For many 744F operators, the 748F replacement is a question of when, not if. "When" might be ten years from now, but it's the only game in town for that kind of capacity and likely to remain so.

Big question marks, to my mind:

Quote:

9. British Airways 55 (incl. 3 parked)
19. KLM 26
Cathay Pacific (not on the list)

BA - Everybody says it won't happen, and maybe it won't. But replace this entire fleet with 77W and A380? That's why people keep asking the question. I'd love to see it happen, but that doesn't mean it's a good (or bad) idea.

KL - If Boeing would be willing to certify a 747-8M, They'd do it. I think though, that the days of factory combis are done, and with KL being the only potential customer for this, it likely wouldn't make sense for Boeing to engineer it. KL/MP might also be interested in the 748F, but only once cargo traffic increases. KLM doesn't seem interested in the A380 and they'll need to do something eventually if they can't get a new 747 combi as they use quite a few of them. One potential answer is 77F orders for MP and more 77W for KL. Very few of KL's 744s are pure pax - 77W seems the likely replacement there.

CX - they're operating the freighter, they seem to like it. They need a 744 replacement eventually.
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 9:08 pm

Quoting Cargolex (Reply 46):
KL - If Boeing would be willing to certify a 747-8M, They'd do it.

The real question is whether KL - or any other airline - is willing to buy new Combis with the additional regulatory constraints. Boeing will certify whatever aircraft models they can sell. Right now, no one wants to buy Combis with fixed bulkheads that are heavy and cannot easily accommodate seasonal variation.
I have a three post per topic limit. You're welcome to have the last word.
 
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Stitch
Posts: 26503
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 9:13 pm

Quoting AF022 (Reply 39):
Can someone summarize the difference between 748 and 77W? Where are the benefits of the 748?

The 747-8 flies a bit farther than the 777-300ER (about 250nm at MZFW). Once the 747-8 is at spec, that should extend out to around 500nm (at MZFW).

The 747-8 will lift 12t more payload (by weight).

Quoting Cargolex (Reply 46):
If Boeing would be willing to certify a 747-8M, They'd do it.

Unfortunately for Boeing:

a) they don't get to certify aircraft.  
b) the folks who do - the FAA - won't certify a new combi without restrictions and requirements that effectively make it uneconomical to operate.  
 
PHX787
Posts: 7892
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 06, 2012 9:20 pm

Quoting Cargolex (Reply 46):
NZ probably doesn't need that much capacity, and seems interested primarily in replacing the 744 with the 77W.

They're slowly phasing out the 744 in favor of the 77W.

Quoting Cargolex (Reply 46):
NH is almost out of the VLA game, at least for now, and has replaced capacity with the 77W. Never say never, but the A380 would be a better bet for either ANA or JAL to replace the old 744D's simply because it offers a capacity advantage. Neither carrier seems interested in this right now, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.

NH probably won't ever operate a VLA again, IMO. They don't need to, with other airlines flying to Japan on VLAs for them.

Skymark, on the other hand, is the one flying the VLA (somehow, somewhere, why I do not know.) with the 380. If Skymark orders the 788, I probably wouldn't be surprised.
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