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zeke
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Wed May 09, 2012 8:58 am

Quoting atpcliff (Reply 97):
Heard rumours that EK has changed their mind and is seriously considering the -8i. It is because of the wing box cracks/lost revenue on the -380, and the fact that the -8i numbers have come in something like 20% better than expected.

Where can an airline get a 747-8 that is doing "20% better than expected", the ones we got are doing worse than the contractual guarantees. Your first sentence is also a piece of fiction.
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Unflug
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Wed May 09, 2012 11:14 am

Quoting Cerecl (Reply 99):
Was there ever an aircraft coming so much better against expectations in the modern era?

Just a matter of tuning the expectations  
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Wed May 09, 2012 2:43 pm

Quoting atpcliff (Reply 97):
Heard rumours that EK has changed their mind and is seriously considering the -8i. It is because of the wing box cracks/lost revenue on the -380, and the fact that the -8i numbers have come in something like 20% better than expected.

EK has never been, is not currently, and will never be seriously interested in the 747-8 Intercontinental. They only talk about it just before they place another 777-300ER order to see if they can get Boeing to make them a better deal.  
 
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Btblue
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Wed May 09, 2012 2:59 pm

If Boeing offered the 748i with Rolls would this enhance its marketability? I can't see BA ordering, not least because ordering it with GE engines would result in a massive hit to the UK economy and with with things the way they are, pressure is on to support local business where possible. Surely that is a factor.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Wed May 09, 2012 3:46 pm

Quoting btblue (Reply 103):
If Boeing offered the 748i with Rolls would this enhance its marketability?

Boeing cannot offer the 747-8 with Rolls-Royce power because they have an exclusivity agreement with General Electric. Also, Rolls doesn't have a "next generation" engine in the thrust class necessary (the Trent 1700 was killed when Airbus scaled up the A350).

And as we have seen with the 777-300ER, if the engine is good enough, airlines will buy it regardless of their manufacturer preference. When Boeing launched the program, CX wanted RR power and AA demanded it. Now, CX has a slew of them and even the final holdout - AA - have purchased them.
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Thu May 10, 2012 5:07 am

Quoting zeke (Reply 89):
I would like to make it clear, that I have not suggested any aircraft will be purchased. Any large asset acquisitions are price sensitive, and I am not permitted to release such information. One will have to wait and see what the company announces, or if an announcement will be made at all.
Quoting zeke (Reply 75):
The VLA analysis at CX is complete, the fleet plan does not look like it will include 747-8Is.

So to be clear, Senior Management has completed their VLA analysis and it appears that the 748i has been ruled out. Yet they haven't moved forward with a purchase decision yet. Wouldn't it be prudent to at least keep the 748I as an option publicly until final negotiations have concluded? Maybe it doesn't matter? Not sure...

-Dave
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Thu May 10, 2012 2:07 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 105):
Yet they haven't moved forward with a purchase decision yet. Wouldn't it be prudent to at least keep the 748I as an option publicly until final negotiations have concluded?

This assumes CX has decided to operate a VLA. As I noted up-thread, it's possible CX has decided (at this time) that neither the 747-8 nor the A380-800 is appropriate for their fleet.
 
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anfromme
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Thu May 10, 2012 3:44 pm

Quoting mham001 (Reply 12):
I read that as proposals for 25 planes. That's why she said "to a number of airlines."

To be honest, on first reading the quote I read it as 25 RFPs, i.e. 25 airlines, and was wondering how that would even work. Reading it again, I actually agree with your interpretation, though.
Unless the truth is somewhere in between, i.e. she wasn't actually talking about proposals sent out in response to RFPs, plus some of the proposals might have gone to potential VIP customers.

Having seen some RFPs and the work involved with them (although not in the airline industry), dealing with 25 RFPs involving 747-8i within 30 days to me does seem like a lot to have on one's plate. Especially when the sums (money-wise) are as high as they would be here, and the numbers (performance-wise) as critical.

Also - 25 RFPs that included the 747-8i (or the A380, for that matter), appears very unlikely, as it would basically mean half of the airlines that could theoretically be in a position to order 747-8i/A380 by 2020 getting proposals within the last 30 days.

[Edited 2012-05-10 08:59:59]
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anfromme
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Thu May 10, 2012 5:24 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 100):
Where can an airline get a 747-8 that is doing "20% better than expected", the ones we got are doing worse than the contractual guarantees. Your first sentence is also a piece of fiction.

Thanks for that - @atpcliff: for more info on the current status of the 747-8i with regard to its performance vs contractual performance, also see this thread:
Lufthansa Expect 747-8i Improvements From 2014 (by anfromme May 4 2012 in Civil Aviation)
Summary: LH expect the first 747-8i that meets its performance targets to be delivered in 2014. At that point, it may or may not actually be a bit better than spec, but it's surely a long way off "20% better" than contractually guaranteed. "20% better than expected" is what you said, I know, but that's a moving target anyway - as AngMoh already said: LH said it was better than feared but worse than hoped, and certainly still below spec.
What LH says about the 747-8i seems to be in line with what operators of the 747-8F say - which brings us back to zeke's post  
Quoting kaitak (Reply 96):
It seems to me that Boeing has kind of shot itself in the foot as far as the 748I is concerned, in the sense that they have are likely to launch the 777-8X and -9X within the next year or so. The -9X will be longer range, bigger, stronger, faster, yada, yada, yada.

Of the airlines that are likely 748I targets for Boeing, how many are already 777 customers? [...] At the very least, I think the prospective 748 customers would want to wait to see what the 779 looks like, on paper at least.

Thanks, I'm not alone  
I made the same point with regard to the 747-8i's sales prospects in a thread that was primarily concerned with the 747-8F (but also debating overall sales prospects for the 747-8), and didn't meet much love with that.

Quoting sweair (Reply 93):
I imagine the 748i being cancelled like the 757 was after 3 or 4 years without new orders. The freighter will live on.

They don't have to cancel the pax version as such - I don't think they ever did with the 747-400, for example (just like Airbus never officially cancelled the pax A300). But I do expect the 747-8 to hit a very similar pattern as the 747-400 did, i.e. the freighter will continue for a while (around 2025 max), while pax deliveries will stop about 4 to 5 years before the last 747-8F delivery.

Quoting sweair (Reply 93):

Its the whale that will dominate the sky at least until the Y3 comes along, if ever. Maybe Airbus and Boeing will be marginalised in 20 years, Chinese aircraft builders dominate the market.

Don't think the Chinese will be there quite as quickly as that. They won't be able to offer a family of aircraft in that short a timeframe, for one thing.
With regard to a successor to the 747-8/A380 - I think that Boeing will try to position their 777 successor to also cover the 747. Don't see them building a dedicated VLA any more. The A380 programme should still have about 30 years of life in it, if the 747 programme is anything to go by, so they won't have to worry about that too soon anyway. And by then, who knows what engine and fuel technology is available, what passenger volumes are like, etc.
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sweair
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Thu May 10, 2012 6:23 pm

Wonder what weight they can take out? LH expects better frames by 2014, both engine pips and lower weights? If you stuff the 748 it must have good numbers already, but LH hardly will max it out, it will have a lot of range though..
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Thu May 10, 2012 6:30 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 109):
Wonder what weight they can take out?

The structure is said to be around 2-3 tons above planned OEW, so that should be recoverable through optimization and tweaking (Boeing expected to remove 2.5t over time).

What's likely hurting the plane's economics the most now is the SFC miss of the GEnx-2B67 engine, which was said to be close to 3%. Add in the OEW miss and that's about 4% higher fuel burn then planned.

Boeing therefore raised MZFW and MTOW to cover both the SFC miss and the OEW overage so the plane is said to be meeting it's targets in terms of payload-range, but not fuel burn. So as GE brings the GEnx2B to spec (and then better to spec), payload-range will improve and operating costs will drop.

[Edited 2012-05-10 11:35:59]
 
DLPMMM
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Thu May 10, 2012 6:47 pm

Quoting anfromme (Reply 107):
Also - 25 RFPs that included the 747-8i (or the A380, for that matter), appears very unlikely, as it would basically mean half of the airlines that could theoretically be in a position to order 747-8i/A380 by 2020 getting proposals within the last 30 days.

I think the 25 proposals were not necessarily all to different airlines.

Boeing could have made several proposals to the same airline to fit different strategies the airline might be interested in persuing.

No way to really tell by the wording.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Thu May 10, 2012 6:53 pm

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 111):
Boeing could have made several proposals to the same airline to fit different strategies the airline might be interested in persuing.

  

For example, Boeing could offer an airline three separate proposals:

1) All 747-8s
2) All 747-8Fs
3) A mix of 747-8s and 747-8Fs.
 
sweair
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Thu May 10, 2012 6:57 pm

If you would go all out and redo a 747 with todays design and technology and materials, would there be much weight saved compared to what it has? How far have we evolved in 40 years really?
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Thu May 10, 2012 9:52 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 106):
This assumes CX has decided to operate a VLA. As I noted up-thread, it's possible CX has decided (at this time) that neither the 747-8 nor the A380-800 is appropriate for their fleet.

Absolutely. I understand it's all assumptions and guesses at this time, but I've had the impression from reading the comments from certain posters in the past that the 380 was likely in the near-term. Of course, much talk has centered around the A380-900 - who's to say?

Anyhow, I never really held out much hope for the 747-8i at CX (or much of anywhere for that matter) so any order will be a pleasant surprise.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
dennys
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Fri May 11, 2012 12:44 pm

AF ordering tbe 747-8i ? If this dream came true i should drink a bottle of Champagne every day!

CX might order some , if the A380-900 plans fall down .
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Fri May 11, 2012 2:07 pm

Quoting dennys (Reply 115):
AF ordering tbe 747-8i? If this dream came true i should drink a bottle of Champagne every day!

They don't appear to need it, since their 777-300ERs hold about the same number of passengers as their 747-400s.
 
PHX787
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Fri May 11, 2012 8:52 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 116):
since their 777-300ERs hold about the same number of passengers as their 747-400s.

IMO If Boeing can make a 777-300ER hold as much as a 744, then why build the 8?
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RickNRoll
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Fri May 11, 2012 9:15 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 117):
IMO If Boeing can make a 777-300ER hold as much as a 744, then why build the 8?


The question a lot of people have been asking. Not wanting to give up the status of being a builder of a passenger VLA? Since they were building the 8F anyway, they thought they might just as well see how the 8i would go?
 
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ER757
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Fri May 11, 2012 11:17 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 95):
I see more than a few airlines that would do well with the 748i. In particular TK.

Whatever became of TK's decision on a VLA? I seem to recall they were to announce it quite some time ago. If the 748i had a chance in any carrier's selection process between it and the A380 out there, I'd think this one would be high on the list.
 
CXB77L
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sat May 12, 2012 3:07 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 114):
Anyhow, I never really held out much hope for the 747-8i at CX

I'm still hoping that CX will one day order the 747-8i. Yes, I know that contradicts with what zeke said above, but what he said also contradicts what CX Flyboy has said in another thread. Given the fact that there are contradicting information from people who are inside the company, chances are that one of them is wrong.

Quoting RickNRoll (Reply 118):
The question a lot of people have been asking. Not wanting to give up the status of being a builder of a passenger VLA? Since they were building the 8F anyway, they thought they might just as well see how the 8i would go?

The latter.

My understanding is that Boeing has been toying around with the idea of a larger 747 for many years - the stillborn 747-500 / 747-600X / 747-700X projects were "feelers" that Boeing put out to see how many airlines would be interested. The Asian Financial Crisis in the late 90s killed off those projects. Then the 787 came along, and some of the 787's technology - such as its engines, for instance - could be used to power a new variant of the 747, and thus the project began. They were always going to build a passenger and a freighter version, since it doesn't cost Boeing much more to offer both models as opposed to offering just one.
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United Airline
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sat May 12, 2012 3:29 am

Guess CX wants the A380-900?
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sat May 12, 2012 5:50 am

Quoting United Airline (Reply 121):
Guess CX wants the A380-900?

That is what people say, but while it can carry two 777-300ERs worth of passengers, it can only carry one 777-300ER worth of cargo.
 
sweair
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sat May 12, 2012 7:21 am

Would it be possible to build a C5 like passenger airplane? Maybe just with a back ramp loading or just nose loading for cargo? Or is it too specialized and heavy for passenger duty.
 
PHX787
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sat May 12, 2012 8:04 am

Quoting sweair (Reply 123):
Would it be possible to build a C5 like passenger airplane? Maybe just with a back ramp loading or just nose loading for cargo? Or is it too specialized and heavy for passenger duty.

It's way too specialized. Unless they change the backside of the C5 to make it a L-5 (???) they could do it. But would it be an economical and smart move? most likely not.
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sweair
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sat May 12, 2012 8:52 am

Yeah I know, just thinking wild   The Y3 will probably be in the shape of a twin like 777. But it must be very good to replace the 777+748i and 748F with one fuselage.

This will be the toughest project for a while IMO. It will be very hard to beat a 748F and still be better than a 773ER as a passenger jet. Or Maybe the current 77F is all the market needs in the future. No more out sized cargo, maybe Antonov can NG its old AN124s? But the An124 is hardly an economical freighter?

Nose or back ramp has use for some transports that will always be needed, not every freight will fit through a side door. And to have like 10 specialized freighters wont be very economical really. The 747F is very flexible in that way, it can fill 3 different roles in the same basic frame. Or will fuel prices make air freight too expensive anyway?
 
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sunrisevalley
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sat May 12, 2012 12:37 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 125):
Or will fuel prices make air freight too expensive anyway?

Fuel prices impact all methods of hauling freight. The relationship between air and ground/sea should not change very much.
 
strfyr51
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sat May 12, 2012 1:14 pm

for airlines that have already Ordered or already Have the A380, the B747-8i stands a chance ONLY if the A380 turns out to be less than advertised. For any USA carrier the 747-8i carries an advantage. as it will have the ability to operate from airports that require no runway, taxiway or loading bridge retrofits.. It seems that Price vs performance will be the key. the B747-8 Freighter will be a winner in any case with the Fwd loading door at the nose. something I'm sure airbus didn't consider at the time of design of the A380. but Europe didn't have or build a freighter at that time eihter so why Would they have thought about it??
If Airbus wants a Freighter then the A400M will have to be upscaled and Re-engined to compete with the C17 like te A400M competes with the C130. I see room for Both airplanes and for their Missions. There IS no easy answer. There's just Preference and "Rough Dog" Marketing and salesmanship that will carry the Product Lines. Though Bigger may have gotten TOO BIG, and Un-affordable for such a "status" symbol...
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sat May 12, 2012 4:02 pm

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 127):
for airlines that have already Ordered or already Have the A380, the B747-8i stands a chance ONLY if the A380 turns out to be less than advertised.

  

The first two 747-8 customers also operate the A380-800 and they both seem quite happy with their A380-800s.
 
rwessel
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sat May 12, 2012 4:28 pm

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 126):
Fuel prices impact all methods of hauling freight. The relationship between air and ground/sea should not change very much.

Not quite true. Fuel is a much higher fraction of total costs in air-transport than it is by (most) forms of ground transport. So an increase in fuel costs will impact air-freight costs more than much ground transport.

Second, the absolute price matters too, and the larger increase in that for air transport, even if costs were to increase no more than proportionately to ground costs, will encourage shippers to find cheaper alternatives.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sat May 12, 2012 4:37 pm

Still, that you are employing air transport means that whatever your shipping has a real "time to market" impetus behind it. Be it due to the value (electronics) or perishability (foods and floral), that freight can command a price that covers the cost of getting it to market quickly.
 
sweair
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sat May 12, 2012 4:47 pm

Well we are used to fuel being quite affordable, but what if we experience a huge hike in price, like in the 70´s..

Conflicts, shortages etc There are many dark clouds forming, among the other financial dark clouds.

EU is almost bankrupt, so is US, thank the printing presses for the economy to tug along like normal...

I think we will endure very hard times ahead, no business like usual.
 
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sunrisevalley
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sat May 12, 2012 4:56 pm

Quoting rwessel (Reply 129):
Second, the absolute price matters too, and the larger increase in that for air transport,

According to the IATA/ Platts calculation as at May 4th the spot price is down 5.4% in the last month and .7% lower than one year ago at $130/bb. SQ are expecting the price for the next year to be $120 or above. For those interested you may wish to bookmark this link:

http://www.iata.org/whatwedo/economics/fuel_monitor/Pages/index.aspx
 
rwessel
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sat May 12, 2012 5:06 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 130):
Still, that you are employing air transport means that whatever your shipping has a real "time to market" impetus behind it. Be it due to the value (electronics) or perishability (foods and floral), that freight can command a price that covers the cost of getting it to market quickly.

Of course it does, but that has a certain amount of flexibility, often dependent on the exact product. For example, fresh fruit may spoil if shipped more slowly. So a slower shipping method may not be viable, but it will likely be viable to avoid shipping it altogether (a big price increase in whatzitfruits from Australia will probably drop demand in the grocery stores considerably, as there are many other fruits that could typically be eaten instead). The increase in shipping costs of the last decade or so have certainly caused us to increase our use of electronic methods of shipping documents - and the willingness of the recipients of such documents to treat the electronic copies as the "official" ones.

As for non-perishable goods, an alternative to fast shipping in many cases are larger inventories or longer manufacturing lead times. For example, I can ship product from China by sea, if I can decide what I'm manufacturing for Christmas one month earlier - obviously that adds more risk since it leaves additional time for the market to change from the point where I did my projections). Those are well understood costs of their own, but obviously its a tradeoff.

But as I said, higher absolute shipping costs will *encourage* (not require) shippers to find less expensive alternatives - some stuff will obviously not move (Apple's first batches of the new model of iPhone, for example), but much of the freight shipped by air is much closer to the margin where tradeoffs are possible.
 
justloveplanes
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Sun May 13, 2012 5:58 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 100):
the ones we got are doing worse than the contractual guarantees.

Is it a big gap? Will the next PIP look to fix it or does weight reduction need to happen also?
 
sweair
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Mon May 14, 2012 6:45 am

If they had made the 748 out of Al-Li how much weight could have been saved? At what price increase?
 
DTWPurserBoy
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RE: Boeing Sends Proposals To 25 Airlines For The 748

Mon May 14, 2012 12:20 pm

DL deferred the original NW order for the 788 as it did not make the performace specified in the original contract and was over weight. That and it is too small for DL's need so they deferred the order until 2020. They have said that the 789 capacity-wise is more to their liking.

Of course, all that could change in a heartbeat the way anything else in this wacky industry can.
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