|Quoting zeke (Reply 100):|
Where can an airline get a 747-8 that is doing "20% better than expected", the ones we got are doing worse than the contractual guarantees. Your first sentence is also a piece of fiction.
Thanks for that - @atpcliff: for more info on the current status of the 747-8i with regard to its performance vs contractual performance, also see this thread:
Lufthansa Expect 747-8i Improvements From 2014 (by anfromme May 4 2012 in Civil Aviation)
expect the first 747-8i that meets its performance targets to be delivered in 2014. At that point, it may or may not actually be a bit better than spec, but it's surely a long
way off "20% better" than contractually guaranteed. "20% better than expected" is what you said, I know, but that's a moving target anyway - as AngMoh already said: LH
said it was better than feared but worse than hoped, and certainly still below spec.
says about the 747-8i seems to be in line with what operators of the 747-8F say - which brings us back to zeke's post
|Quoting kaitak (Reply 96):|
It seems to me that Boeing has kind of shot itself in the foot as far as the 748I is concerned, in the sense that they have are likely to launch the 777-8X and -9X within the next year or so. The -9X will be longer range, bigger, stronger, faster, yada, yada, yada.
Of the airlines that are likely 748I targets for Boeing, how many are already 777 customers? [...] At the very least, I think the prospective 748 customers would want to wait to see what the 779 looks like, on paper at least.
Thanks, I'm not alone
I made the same point with regard to the 747-8i's sales prospects in a thread that was primarily concerned with the 747-8F (but also debating overall sales prospects for the 747-8), and didn't meet much love with that.
|Quoting sweair (Reply 93):|
I imagine the 748i being cancelled like the 757 was after 3 or 4 years without new orders. The freighter will live on.
They don't have to cancel the pax version as such - I don't think they ever did with the 747-400, for example (just like Airbus never officially cancelled the pax A300). But I do expect the 747-8 to hit a very similar pattern as the 747-400 did, i.e. the freighter will continue for a while (around 2025 max), while pax deliveries will stop about 4 to 5 years before the last 747-8F delivery.
|Quoting sweair (Reply 93):|
Its the whale that will dominate the sky at least until the Y3 comes along, if ever. Maybe Airbus and Boeing will be marginalised in 20 years, Chinese aircraft builders dominate the market.
Don't think the Chinese will be there quite as quickly as that. They won't be able to offer a family of aircraft in that short a timeframe, for one thing.
With regard to a successor to the 747-8/A380 - I think that Boeing will try to position their 777 successor to also cover the 747. Don't see them building a dedicated VLA any more. The A380 programme should still have about 30 years of life in it, if the 747 programme is anything to go by, so they won't have to worry about that too soon anyway. And by then, who knows what engine and fuel technology is available, what passenger volumes are like, etc.