Several Oneworld members are already busy enough with their own restructuring plus the additions of MH, IT (if they survive), BD and potential addition of JJ, however are their any other airlines that are likely to join the alliance? A few obvious holes in the alliance network are Mainland China, a Global Middle East carrier and Africa. Are there any plans for the alliance to fill these holes?

Quoting TWA85 (Thread starter): Several Oneworld members are already busy enough with their own restructuring plus the additions of MH, IT (if they survive), BD and potential addition of JJ, however are their any other airlines that are likely to join the alliance? A few obvious holes in the alliance network are Mainland China, a Global Middle East carrier and Africa. Are there any plans for the alliance to fill these holes?

As mentioned in past threads on this topic, I believe there is consensus among A.net members that oneworld really needs a mainland China partner and a domestic Indian carrier. It could fit the bill if they survive as you mentioned, and mainland China could be filled by HU (Hainan) however they compete directly with long-standing oneworld member CX out of HKG. CX and CA (Air China of Star Alliance) have a partnership, so if that deepens either we'll see CA move to oneworld or CX leave oneworld for Star, allowing HU to fill the gaps in both HKG and mainland China (not that it would be perfect substitute).

MH joining would certainly help strengthen oneworld in South East Asia.
It is assumed that JJ will join.
And BA is consolidating their leading position in the UK with the BD acquisition.
AA is being restructured and should emerge a stronger carrier (whether merged with US or as a stand-alone) and they most certainly will remain in oneworld.

Africa is the other gaping hole in the oneworld route/ hub map. BA's franchise partner Comair in South Africa provides decent southern Africa feed to carriers serving the south, however, with no large network carrier on the Continent, oneworld is at a definite disadvantage (though not a large one given the adequate coverage of the continent by BA/ IB/ other oneworld carrier).

Apart from filling the India/ China/ Africa holes, I hope oneworld focuses on smaller niche carriers who can plug the gaps. the loss of Malev in Central/ Eastern Europe hasn't been fully compensated for by AB. Perhaps there is room for a small Central/ Eastern Europe carrier.

IG (Air Meridiana of Italy) would be a nice addition to add to a growing European network, as would PL (Pluna) to round out the South American coverage.

Few holes would exist- getting carriers like B6, AS and WS would be fantastic but at the moment seems unlikely given the benefits those carriers derive from remaining unaligned.

EI could be brought back into the alliance if IAG made a play for the company. BE would also be a nice addition (and IAG already own a small piece of the company.

You mention a Global Middle East Carrier- while I think it unlikely, IAG has mentioned QR while AA is cozying up with EY. QR seems more likely to be a Star Alliance candicate, while EY could work with RJ and be a nice addition to oneworld.

I think we've pretty much covered the entire globe by now! 

Just my thoughts on oneworld!

Cheers,
AA1818

Prospect of TP as well? Is IAG's plan of getting ownership of TP still on?

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 1): as would PL (Pluna) to round out the South American coverage.

May be difficult for oneworld to add new members in South America, should JJ join the global alliance, as several fellow anetters appear to believe. LA and its affiliates in Peru, Colombia, Ecuador and Argentina, along with JJ and its leading market position in Brasil and LA itself in Chile, already dominate the region.

The IATA code for PLUNA is PU

Could we be seeing them courting a Central American carrier? or is AA and LA's coverage of the area sufficient? I feel like while oneworld didn't lose everything with MX but they did leave a large hole in Mexico.

And what About AT for being a Northern African carrier? IAG owns a part of them, I'm sure that they would bring a lot to the alliance. That would just leave a Central Africa as a gap to be filled.

I think that oneworld should've gone for 9W instead of IT in India, they've been in the industry a while and have proven that they can keep flying despite the bad economy without losing bundles of money and returning all but a few planes.

North America:

JetBlue is highly unlikely. US (without a merger) would remain in Star Alliance. Alaska was recently called "the codeshare slut" of the market and I see them staying independent for the foreseeable future. As for Canada, Westjet does not seem likely at all. They already have good ties with Southwest. A replacement for Canadian Airlines does not seem possible.

Mexicana will unlikely fly again (from what it appears), so Mexico is open. Volaris, to me, is the best choice. Latin America can be handled just fine with AA's MIA base as well as some LAN connections.

South America:

It appears LATAM will jump to Oneworld, as AviancaTaca Group is in the process of a large Star Alliance network for the region. AA's and LAN's presense is stable.

Europe:

No immediate concerns. IAG is fine, Malev's bankruptcy was quickly replaced with Air Berlin's entry into the alliance, and other carriers are considering assistance or ownership via IAG. The only true hiccup one could notice would be the 9-month delay on BER's opening. It would be a great connection point for Asian passengers looking to avoid LHR (should partners announce BER direct).

Asia:

Two key markets are missing: Mainland China and India. As for China, Hainan is likely the most logical choice. I don't see CX moving an inch in terms of "alliance experimentation" with other partners. Dragonair still has plenty of Chinese connections, albeit not being the size of other major carriers.

With Kingfisher near its demise, I can imagine Oneworld is having discussions with Jet Airways on stand-by. I don't see Oneworld touching Air India with the recent Star Alliance joining embarrassment.

Australasia

Qantas is sorting out their union issues. The fleet is being updated and the route network is overall good.

The current talk of the town and debate ensuing has to do with Air Tahiti Nui. Their recent announcement of intent to join Oneworld has brought deniers and discussions to the table. I personally see them joining Oneworld as soon as the restructuring is complete. Air Berlin is often called a "holiday airline" but got into the alliance with little to no issue. Air Tahiti Nui, considering the connections in NRT, LAX, and SYD should have no problems.

Quoting Independence76 (Reply 5): Air Tahiti Nui, considering the connections in NRT, LAX, and SYD should have no problems.

They no longer fly to SYD . They codeshare from AKL to SYD . Interestingly the PPT-AKL route is partnered with star alliance member NZ .

There are plenty of good opportunities out there, the problem is that *O has been slow to exploit them.

North America

• B6 is needed for their JFK slots and would solidify AA/OW's position in JFK. Personally, I think this should be one of the highest priorities of *O as it directly impacts the AA/BA JV.
  

South America

• 5L would help to round out *O's S. American presence unless LA is planning on starting up a LAN Bolivia organically.
  
• PU is a potential member as they already codeshare with AA and IB.
  

Europe

• EI - Even though Willie Walsh said EI wasn't a good investment, I still believe they could serve a valuable role in OW.
  
• TP - Would round out *O's dominance on the Iberian peninsula and ensure its dominance to latin america.
  
• IG - Meridiana already codeshares with five *O carriers, and would finally give OW a better Mediterranean presence.
  
• DY - There are reports that suggest they are interested in *O and that AY and DY will work together in some alliance. I'm not sure how though.
  
• OA - Currently have no alliance presence with the denial of the A3 merger and would round out *O's Mediterranean traffic.
  

Africa

The only real chances *O has on the continent is to organically grow a particular carrier or convince one of the current airlines to switch alliances.

• DT - Has been improving over the years, and with some further assistance could become a valuable member to the alliance. They do have a codeshare with BA, but they have one with AF and LH as well.
  
• W3 - Could have been a good option, but like many things in Nigeria, it looks like the carrier is becoming a basket case.
  
• TU - Has expressed interest in joining *O, but like all N. African carriers, their geographical location makes for a poor intra-continental hub.
  
• AT - IAG has a .095% holding(AF has 2.86%). However, their geographical location means the much of their network can be replicated by IB.
  

Asia

• HU - Getting Hainan into *O is one of the alliance's biggest priorities. With AA's new codeshare, I think the writing is on the wall.
  
• 9W - If the Indian govt forbids 9W from joining *A, then *O has a chance to convince them to join. The problem is 9W's BRU operations and the lack of any real *O presence there.
  

Oceania

This region is a prime example of my earlier statement regarding *O's lack of initiative. By just adding two small airlines , *O could dominate most of the S. Pacific, but they sit by and do nothing as usual.

• FJ - Should have become a member long ago. They mainly codeshare with *O airlines and are 46% owned by QF.
  
• TN - Another carrier with strong ties to *O. They codeshare with AA, JL, QF, and they use many OW lounges for their premium passengers.
  

Air Zimbabwe perhaps?

Quoting cx flyboy (Reply 8): Air Zimbabwe perhaps?

Didn't they fold?

Side question that I'm gonna try and work into relating to the topic (wish me luck)
Has an alliance ever started an airline to help them in an area where they have limited coverage?
I ask this because then OW could start an airline for one of the more stable countries in Africa where there is no real flag carrier (i.e. Ghana), and then use that as both the national airline and then use it to also serve destinations for the alliance? Maybe even get the local government to help them out, split the costs and the profits, so that they can get a stable flag carrier.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 7): 5L would help to round out *O's S. American presence unless LA is planning on starting up a LAN Bolivia organically.

Not going to happen.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 7): PU is a potential member as they already codeshare with AA and IB.

LAN would object to PU joining oneworld since that carrier competes with LAN-TAM on several routes and operates domestic flights with-in Chile.

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 10): Not going to happen.

Ok that answer was too short. Which isn't going to happen, 5L or LAN Bolivia? Anything to do with Evo Morales?
I can't imagine that LAN will let the Bolivian market go untouched.

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 1): You mention a Global Middle East Carrier- while I think it unlikely, IAG has mentioned QR while AA is cozying up with EY. QR seems more likely to be a Star Alliance candicate, while EY could work with RJ and be a nice addition to oneworld.

Add to that the fact that QF and EK are reportedly in talks and it becomes a nightmare. EY would not sit well with QF, given that they are a major VA partner having ditched their codeshare agreement with QF a couple of years ago.

It's all a bit of a mess when it comes to the ME airlines. Ultimately, I don't see any of them joining an alliance unless there's a big hit to their traffic.

As for the other various suggestions -- I see HU joining in the next few years but not much else. Something will need to be done about India soon, but that all hinges on IT and the government's decision on 9W.

FJ is a very strong possibility, given their major relaunch next year. It would be very appropriate for them to jump into OW as they mix up their strategy -- more formal relationships with AA, QF and CX would be useful for providing further long haul feed. FJ will be far more valuable for OW than TN.

It will be interesting to see what happens...

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 7): 5L would help to round out *O's S. American presence unless LA is planning on starting up a LAN Bolivia organically.

AeroSur is no longer flying. Its last flight was exactly a week ago.  

Quoting qf002 (Reply 12): FJ will be far more valuable for OW than TN.

Maybe, but what does it hurt to have both? Also, I do like that TN would put OW metal on the LAX-CDG route.

Quoting RAGAZZO777 (Reply 13): AeroSur is no longer flying. Its last flight was exactly a week ago.

Oh wow!!! I didn't know they officially shut down. Last I saw they sent out a statement saying that operations were up and running. Sad.

[Edited 2012-05-22 23:41:26]

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 14): Maybe, but what does it hurt to have both? Also, I do like that TN would put OW metal on the LAX-CDG route.

I guess not, it's just really not OW's style. That sounds like the sort of thing * would say!!

I think Europe is fine, but I do agree that more coverage in Asia and particularly Africa would be useful. Think in terms of competition to EK, for instance. How does OW funnel all those passengers to where they want to go? Instead of letting EK do it... Right now, the small number of flights to Africa do cover the most important and profitable traffic to Johannesburg and other few cities, but the continent is otherwise pretty unreachable. Sadly, I don't see OW companies as capable as founding any new activity there. (If it were LH, they might do something similar to what they've done in Switzerland or Italy.)

In regards to Africa, could SA be tempted over? They already have an extensive trans-Indian alliance with QF.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 15): I guess not, it's just really not OW's style. That sounds like the sort of thing * would say!!

True, but if TN asks to join, I can't see OW turning them down.

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 1): Few holes would exist- getting carriers like B6, AS and WS would be fantastic but at the moment seems unlikely given the benefits those carriers derive from remaining unaligned.

Quoting Independence76 (Reply 5): JetBlue is highly unlikely. US (without a merger) would remain in Star Alliance. Alaska was recently called "the codeshare slut" of the market and I see them staying independent for the foreseeable future. As for Canada, Westjet does not seem likely at all. They already have good ties with Southwest. A replacement for Canadian Airlines does not seem possible.

I can't see WS happening as well. They're getting too many benefits from not remaining committed to an alliance. Also WS did have a tentative agreement with SW to do codeshares however that was cancelled and now there are no codeshare arrangements. Only with AA and DL for American carriers.

Quoting flythere (Reply 2): Prospect of TP as well? Is IAG's plan of getting ownership of TP still on?

I think that any IAG purchase of TP is now very much on the back burner. They have seen the severe indigestion that LH has experienced by tackling too many additions to the family at one time. Of course a major contributor to that indigestion was BD. So I suspect that BA will focus on absorbing BD and that IAG will not be looking for further acquisitions until BD is fully and successfully integrated into BA.

Quoting VV701 (Reply 20): Of course a major contributor to that indigestion was BD

As far as I know there hasn't been any "indigestion" cause by the BD merger. As I've said before, One British LHR-based carrier absorbing another is as easy as it gets.

Truthfully, BA should be able to assimilate BD and purchase TP, as TP will remain an separate brand like IB.

[Edited 2012-05-23 04:48:43]

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 21): As far as I know there hasn't been any "indigestion" cause by the BD merger. As I've said before, One British LHR-based carrier absorbing another is as easy as it gets.

I think the indigestion was referring to LH's purchase of BD, rather than BA's purchase. As much as BD gave LH a lot of trouble, they managed to gain quite a few LHR slots.

Oneworld should focus on the gaping holes in Africa, China & India before shoring up Europe. With the EU economy in such poor shape, the growth will come from China & India. As others have said HU is one of the few options left in mainland China, unless they can lure MU away from Skyteam. 9W would be the best option in India, even if IT survives. And as long as AI continues to be meddled with by the government it will be useless to an alliance.

Africa a a problem for OW but Africa offers few quality airlines. SAA wouls have fit beautifully into OW but Star got them. Ethiopian and Egyptair joined Star too, so they have all of east Africa. Kenya Air is Skyteam's main African airline. One viable option for OW is Arik Air in Nigeria, with the country's long ties to teh UK this would seem natural. TAAG in Angola could be a possibility.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 21): As far as I know there hasn't been any "indigestion" cause by the BD merger.

I was clearly referring to the indigestion LH experienced after their take-over of BD.

In their last financial report Lufthansa Group attributed nearly all of the poor financial performance that they reported to the BD situation. I believe that the indigestion experienced by the Lufthansa Group would have been less if their eye had not been taken off the BD ball by their concurrent investments in LX, OS and SN. I was suggesting that BA might well have learned from the Lufthansa Group's experience.

As a result of the above I believe BA and IAG management will totally focus their attention on managing the integration of BD and BA, on quickly reducing BD's high operational losses that hit Lufthansa Group so hard and on desposing of bmi Regional and bmiBaby.

I will therefore say again that I think as a result of their purchase of BD and the challenge this presents and recognising the former problems of Lufthansa Group any move by IAG on TP is likely to be very much on the back burner.

I think Arik is the best one, it´s in a great place for connectivity to west and central africa to Europe and America, and not far to go to some places in Asia via LHR.

Arik already serves LHR and BA-IB also Nigeria so I think they could make it work very good.

However I think that IB should use more specially configure A320´s to fly to more destinations in west Africa and start fighting more with AF-KLM, almost all the airport in that area are less than 5 hours from MAD and usually the fares are so high that i´m sure they can do good, IB network to France, Germany, Italy and big part of Europe is good maybe Asian connections are missing but they, they can use LHR.

Quoting liamh91 (Reply 17): In regards to Africa, could SA be tempted over? They already have an extensive trans-Indian alliance with QF.

Never.

Quoting migair54 (Reply 25): Quoting liamh91 (Reply 17): In regards to Africa, could SA be tempted over? They already have an extensive trans-Indian alliance with QF. Never.

why not? Comair?

As for Africa, W3 would be good for much of west Africa and an expanded MN would but great for southern Africa. Also what about 5H for east Africa? Although they are a regional carrier, they could operate as franchise of BA similar to how QT of Kenya did and MN of South Africa does now.

As for mainland China, is there any possibility that HU will join Oneworld in the near future? Yes CX does not want them to join because CX competes directly with HU subsidiaries HX and UO in HKG. However the major difference between CX/KA and HX/UO is CX/KA operate an all widebody fleet whereas HX/UO operate a mostly narrowbody fleet. If CX allowed HU to join Oneworld, HX/UO could operate as regional feeders for CX thus allowing CX to focus more on higher yielding longhaul traffic instead of having to reduce operations in North America to provide aircraft for operations elsewhere. Also HU longhaul operations can focus more on secondary destions from PEK as they are currently doing and CX can focus larger global destinations from HKG.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 7):

But Lufthansas still owns a piece of B6. I can't see them joining oneWorld because of that.

Quoting PDPsol (Reply 3): The IATA code for PLUNA is PU

Thanks for that!

Quoting PDPsol (Reply 3): May be difficult for oneworld to add new members in South America, should JJ join the global alliance, as several fellow anetters appear to believe. LA and its affiliates in Peru, Colombia, Ecuador and Argentina, along with JJ and its leading market position in Brasil and LA itself in Chile, already dominate the region.

Is there much overlap though? Wouldn't PU be complementary?

Quoting liamh91 (Reply 17): In regards to Africa, could SA be tempted over? They already have an extensive trans-Indian alliance with QF.

That would be great, Though BA's Franchise partner Comair wouldn't be too please. In terms of feed it would certainly help greatly, however it still doesn't give adequate coverage of the continent from a connections standpoint. Luring A (Central) West and East African partner would do the trick. Arik seems like it could be a good candidate, but they seem to be plagued by financial difficulties (at least they meet that oneworld requirement!).

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 14): Also, I do like that TN would put OW metal on the LAX-CDG route.

Even if TN don't add much, oneworld

Quoting VV701 (Reply 20): I think that any IAG purchase of TP is now very much on the back burner.

it may not be their focus at the moment- however, I'm sure that if the Portuguese Government got serious about divestment, IAG would perk up and divert resources.

Quoting VV701 (Reply 20): I suspect that BA will focus on absorbing BD and that IAG will not be looking for further acquisitions until BD is fully and successfully integrated into BA.

The BD integration seems to be happening seamlessly. Hopefully IAG are soon able to turn their guns elsewhere- maybe outside the EU!

AA1818

Quoting Independence76 (Reply 5): Mexicana will unlikely fly again (from what it appears), so Mexico is open. Volaris, to me, is the best choice

Volaris is a LCC with no premium class cabin and no f.f. program. Moreover, it has a cooperation agreement (in place or in the works) with WN. I think we can rule them out completely.

Quoting Independence76 (Reply 5): With Kingfisher near its demise, I can imagine Oneworld is having discussions with Jet Airways on stand-by.

Well, 9W is apparently interested in Star Alliance. On the other hand, DL and AF have already offered 9W a place in their trans-Atlantic J-V in order to try to lure them to SkyTeam, and I guess one could say that is Plan B for 9W. oneworld would have to get in line behind its two competitors for talks to 9W.

Quoting Independence76 (Reply 5): Hainan is likely the most logical choice.

Perhaps so, but isn't Hainan somehow affiliated with Hong Kong Airlines and Hong Kong Express? I can imagine that CX would be very unwilling to accept a direct competitor or the affiliate/parent of a direct competitor.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 7): 9W - If the Indian govt forbids 9W from joining *A, then *O has a chance to convince them to join. The problem is 9W's BRU operations and the lack of any real *O presence there.

As mentioned, there is already an offer by DL and AF to join the trans-Atlantic DL-AF-KL-AZ J-V and eventually SkyTeam. Add that to the list of obstacles. With respect to the hub, that should not be an issue. The DL/AF offer involved moving the BRU 9W hub to MXP or AMS (I forget which of the two).

Quoting superjeff (Reply 28): But Lufthansas still owns a piece of B6. I can't see them joining oneWorld because of that.

How big is it? It might be purely a financial investment and not give LH any rights to veto or prevent such a deal.

Quoting QFVHOQA (Reply 22): Oneworld should focus on the gaping holes in Africa, China & India before shoring up Europe.

I disagree. Part of what lured ET and SA to *A was the opportunity of connecting with so many carriers, especially in Europe. At the time, Oneworld's coverage of Europe was limited to the coastal countries with no central European connectivity. I place the blame solely on BA, especially after the screw up with LX.

IMHO, Europe is the low hanging fruit that would be easiest to add to OW. The proximity to BA, EU membership, and the ability to be added to IAG makes European airlines a perfect targets for OW membership. Just look at India and China with their govt interference.

If BA can shore up *O's EU membership via an Italian and/or Greek carrier along with an eastern European airline, it should have a spill-over effect of attracting new unaligned carriers or helping to convince currently allied carriers to switch over.

Meridiana would be a good start to give the alliance a start in the Italian market. Olympic is another that's just sitting there for the picking.

Quoting QFVHOQA (Reply 22): With the EU economy in such poor shape

If you have the funds and you're shopping for an airline, the time to do it is when stock values are depressed. Poor economic conditions also gives companies a reason to cut labor costs.

Quoting migair54 (Reply 25): I think Arik is the best one,

Quoting TWA85 (Reply 27): As for Africa, W3 would be good for much of west Africa

I have been suggesting that W3 be made a member as well, but I now see their mismanagement and lack of corporate governance. There would have to be some foreign ownership and management if W3 is to ever get their act straight. Nigerian Airways may be a more stable fit.

As I mentioned, I don't think OW will attract any African carriers until they finish plugging the holes in the EU.

Quoting superjeff (Reply 28): But Lufthansas still owns a piece of B6. I can't see them joining oneWorld because of that.

Due to foreign ownership laws, LH can only own 25%, and they actually own 15.7%, so they have no control over B6's decisions.

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 29): Even if TN don't add much, oneworld

I agree.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 31): Nigerian Airways may be a more stable fit.

They're 49% owned by Virgin so I doubt that they'll be joining the alliance any time soon

Quoting QFVHOQA (Reply 22): And as long as AI continues to be meddled with by the government it will be useless to an alliance.

Why?

AI would be a partner for OW which is guaranteed to not go bankrupt, will likely be very alliance friendly (provide lots of feed), and will give other OW partner airlines serious clout in the Ministry of Civil Aviation.

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 33): AI would be a partner for OW which is guaranteed to not go bankrupt, will likely be very alliance friendly (provide lots of feed), and will give other OW partner airlines serious clout in the Ministry of Civil Aviation.

I somewhat agree with what you're saying, they will not go bankrupt -which is good for any OW member- and they will provide a lot of feed.

However, they still do have the government messing around with them and I don't feel that IAG, QF, AA, or CX, will want to deal with that (I'm leaving out the others because they're smaller or not really a factor). I will stand by what I said earlier and say that instead of trying to get IT to join they should've gone for 9W.

Quoting iFlyLOTs (Reply 34): However, they still do have the government messing around with them and I don't feel that IAG, QF, AA, or CX, will want to deal with that (I'm leaving out the others because they're smaller or not really a factor). I will stand by what I said earlier and say that instead of trying to get IT to join they should've gone for 9W.

The government messes around in favor of AI's partners. Mark my words - the day AI enters Star Alliance (if it happens), will be the the day Lufthansa announces A380 service to India.

I'm sure BA would love to have that honor instead  

Oneworld, sometimes when we speak about them we forget whats realistic and not come up with ideas that really only would happen in fantasy worlds.

Whats realistic in Europe?
Meridiana, a primarily domestic Italian airline plus a pretty big charter operation. Already partnerships with heaps of oneworld so really an eay add on but also everything but premier or with a large footprint.
Aer Lingus - They have been there and the airlines know what they get from them. If I were them I wouldn't go for an alliance with BA in though rather go for Star now that BMI isn't there anymore. Skyteam isn't a bad idea for them either but they have some issues with AF regionals and with KL strong presence in the UK regional market.
Olympic - Great carrier after its rebirth. Eventually needs an alliance. Could end up anywhere except Star if Aegean and them cant join forces. If they eventually are allowed to join Aegean in one way or the other they will be in Star.
Cyprus airlines - niche carrier that mainly codeshares with Skyteam plus they have Virgin as their man transatlantic partner. Doesnt bode well for oneworld...
Air Malta - Niche carrier that's in the LH sphere. Wont happen.
TAP - If TAP is privatised now the money for it wont come from a European airline and TP is highly likely to stay in Star where they can leverage their strength to Brazil. A move to Oneworld would go against all the things the Portuguese government asks for in regards to keeping Portuguese interests as the most important issue when privatising the airline. Wont happen unless the government is desperate and there are no other bidders. Even if IAG puts in the highest bid it wont be enough.
JAT - Not in the EU, a government mess at the moment.
Norwegian - Not full service but neither is Air Berlin-Niki. However they serve alot more major destinations than Air Berlin. Oneworld is leading the foray into the lowcost segment. Not that i see any point at all for Norwegian to join an alliance but thats another story...
Aerosvit - run by an oligarch that recently has put two Scandinavian airlines into bankruptcy halfway through their reorganisation. But Ukraine is a big and promising market. Mostly codeshares with Skyteam though.

What would have been ideal?
LOT, LX or Austrian.
Unfortunately those boats have sailed long time ago...

And pls Air Berlin a lowcoast without service to most major European destinations arent something that will change continental Europe at all. They are not an alternative to LH or something even close to that just look at how many destinations that people want to fly to they really connect to from their hub in Berlin.
Cant see QF or CX start any flights to Berlin for them thats for sure...
besides they are half owned by Etihad so thats where they will channel travellers if going eastwards.

Africa
TAAG - been banned from the EU for a pretty long time. Codeshares with everyone that flies to Angola and Angola itself is a very closed traffic rights market. What would they contribute?
Tunisair - Perhaps new market and can connect a few destinations in Maghreb if their network increase. Small local market and small carrier but it has potential and location.
Royal Air maroc - Closer to Skyteam. But also a cheaper version of Iberia in regards to what new they offer. Why would IAG be interested in sending passengers on them instead of on IB.
Air Algerie - maybe. Huge potential, greatly mismanaged throughout the years. Alger isn't exactly a destination you visit unless you must and with security being on many peoples kind id say it'll take time till it will be an asset
Comair - sure for all that wanna fly to the bottom south and connect north. In general works for South Africa and maybe neighbourinhg countries. Not the rest. But seems likely eventually.

SAA wont happen they are with Star, have full Amadeus Altea suite and why would they switch no rationale at all for that. that's more peoples wishes or own proposals. Bit of fanboyism me reckons...

Wouldn't having the full amadeus suite make it easier for SA to move over? Seven out of the 11 oneworld airlines use Altea and ARES. And isn't comair already an affiliate through its BA ops?

What about LOT?

BA and AA used to be pretty close to LOT - but the then Polish govt preferred Star - now LOT is to be privatised might we see the old relationships rekindled?

Quoting liamh91 (Reply 37): Wouldn't having the full amadeus suite make it easier for SA to move over? Seven out of the 11 oneworld airlines use Altea and ARES. And isn't comair already an affiliate through its BA ops?

It wont since SA has the Star Alliance version of Amadeus.
The only way SA would ever change is if the politicians decided that SA must. Luckily for South Africa, until the country gets a madman like Mugabe in charge they will hopefully be able to avoid such interference. Unless politics (read bribes) strikes SA will remain in Star.

Quoting jumpjets (Reply 38): What about LOT? BA and AA used to be pretty close to LOT - but the then Polish govt preferred Star - now LOT is to be privatised might we see the old relationships rekindled?

In short no. LH matters heaps more than BA to Poland. And LOT:s FF program is Miles and more (Owned and administrated by LH)...
Oneworld being the weakest of the alliances in Europe has very little to offer no matter if Lot is privatised or not. And as far as I understand it all consultants argued that Lot would be better off aligned with LH than competing against them at the time LOT choose European partner. I never saw any report arguing that BA would be a better partner.
Add on that AA is (at the moment) the weakest / smallest US partner in North America for a European airline.
For LOT the markets across the pond that matters is New York (Star hub), Chicago (Star hub) and Toronto (Star hub). What can they gain from switching?

BA had the golden egg, LX, but choose to treat like a lesser colony that were to be exploited for the benefit of London. The result was that they alienated the swiss who instead sold out to the germans (never an easy sell) and LH has been laughing ever since. Zurich is Europes nicest airport and Switzerland is as good small market as youll ever get on the continent.

Quoting superjeff (Reply 28): But Lufthansas still owns a piece of B6. I can't see them joining oneWorld because of that.

Weren't there reports that LH wanted to sell its stake in B6?

Quoting MillwallSean (Reply 36): Air Algerie - maybe. Huge potential, greatly mismanaged throughout the years. Alger isn't exactly a destination you visit unless you must and with security being on many peoples kind id say it'll take time till it will be an asset

Isn't this airline not rumored to be a future Skyteam member?

Quoting MillwallSean (Reply 36): TAAG - been banned from the EU for a pretty long time. Codeshares with everyone that flies to Angola and Angola itself is a very closed traffic rights market. What would they contribute?

Maybe you can better revert the question. What has IAG to offer to TAAG? The airline doesn't need an alliance as it can do whatever it wants (it already sometimes requires foreign airlines to accept codeshares in order to get traffic rights to Angola).

Quoting LJ (Reply 40): Weren't there reports that LH wanted to sell its stake in B6?

There were, but even if LH doesn't sell its stake it won't stop B6 from joining OneWorld (and that is assuming that they don't want it to- it joining OneWorld could raise the value of their investment). But JFK and LHR are the two important markets for transatlantic travel. BA has LHR covered, and while AA has a sizable presence at JFK, the addition of B6 can only help. B6 also adds BOS as a key gateway, and I think BOS would compliment JFK nicely in the OneWorld alliance.

I agree on China and India being the big holes. Everything else is, for the moment, pretty much filled. An extra airline in South East Asia, North Africa or LatAm could also be a nice add.

As to sub-Saharan Africa, IAG are prepping up their presence big time, so I'd rule out anything in the continent at least in the short term. The money is on Asia/US/Europe- Africa flows, which is what they intend on tapping into.