http://economictimes...ow/13558767.cms

these are on top of orders for an additional 5 B777-300ER's Air Canada has with Boeing, not sure when the 5 B77W's will be delivered though.

The link doesn't work.

I wonder if these are the planes QR has reportedly been trying to remarket.

The 77L is my favorite 777, such brute force it has, like a rocket.

Quoting sxf24 (Reply 1): I wonder if these are the planes QR has reportedly been trying to remarket.

Looks like Air India frames: http://www.hindustantimes.com/News-F...e-Boeing-777s/Article1-861945.aspx

Air India airframes have come up previously. There were some "maintenance issues" or combatability issues that caused the pause or delay. So if these are indeed the ones being looked at then either conditions have changed enough to make the extra cost to convert over worthwhile, or there is enough of a shortage that they are the only option, or perhaps Air India has invested some funds to improve the issues.

It also could be that the LCC idea has been shelved and that the 767-300's will be retired quicker and replaced by the first tranch of 787's. Some of the younger and best 767's were destined for the LCC arm.

These leased 77L would likely be used on the expanded Asia and longest South American routes. I have always known that more 777's would be ordered and maybe this is the best way to get volume quickly given the large order book for 777's.

Hats off to Air-India for figuring out how to not be able to operate 777s profitably. Now they are pinning their hopes on operating 787s profitably, at which they will fail too. Afterall the problem is not with aircraft technology, but with their utter inability to manage anything. It would be interesting to see what excuses they come up with next.

Quoting COEWR787 (Reply 5): Hats off to Air-India for figuring out how to not be able to operate 777s profitably. Now they are pinning their hopes on operating 787s profitably, at which they will fail too.

I am pretty sure if they fail that there are a few airlines willing to get their hands on those 787s rather than wait until 2050 or something  

I find it odd that AC would be willing to lease a 3 class configured airplane as it would in turn (if indeed obtained) have to pay a fortune in getting the cabin interior retrofitted to suit its needs.

AI must be offering these birds at a really big discount to get such interest from AC which might though in turn off set the retrofit costs somewhat?

Where are the speculated new destinations?

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3): Looks like Air India frames

  

Quoting pnwtraveler (Reply 4): So if these are indeed the ones being looked at then either conditions have changed enough to make the extra cost to convert over worthwhile, or there is enough of a shortage that they are the only option, or perhaps Air India has invested some funds to improve the issues.

I suspect a mixture of the two. Improved conditions allow AC to pay for these aircraft to be brought up to standard and AI is probably being more reasonable to cut the cash burn.

Quoting COEWR787 (Reply 5): Hats off to Air-India for figuring out how to not be able to operate 777s profitably. Now they are pinning their hopes on operating 787s profitably, at which they will fail too.

   A bit harsh in wording. Alas this is true until AI improves their efficiency (e.g., employees per airframe and not cutting the ones customers care about). The Indian economy is being held hostage to AI. While there are signs that there are more opportunities for the private airlines, I'll wait to see the bilateral rights actually assigned and flown.

Quoting pictues (Thread starter): http://economictimes...ow/13558767.cms

Link isn't working for me...

Lightsaber

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 8): Where are the speculated new destinations?

The speculated cities will leave up to others, but it has been clear from AC that new China destinations, possibly both YVR and YYZ are high priorities. Also South America has been growing steadily and the volume of cargo is dramatically increasing. Perishable fresh fruit and veggies in season from Chili for example. The liberalized trade with Brazil is also increasing volumes. Large numbers of South Americans continue to bypass the US for connecting flights.
YUL to Turkey to dovetail with TK to YYZ has been hinted at lately. Also perhaps to dovetail with Ethiopian although I think volume isn't there for that until the route builds significantly.

Interesting news! There was a thread here not too long ago that talked about AC exercising 2 B77W options and possibly leasing those birds out, as AC may not require them. So if AC leases 5 77Ls, would they still lease out the 2 77Ws that are due in 2013?

Quoting behramjee (Reply 7): I find it odd that AC would be willing to lease a 3 class configured airplane as it would in turn (if indeed obtained) have to pay a fortune in getting the cabin interior retrofitted to suit its needs.

Any chance AC would keep the 3 class set-up and charge a premium on top of the Executive Class fare? Some of the leased 763s are in the non-XM'd config (granted they are used on vacation destinations).

Quoting sweair (Reply 2): The 77L is my favorite 777, such brute force it has, like a rocket.

Same here! Same goes for the B762 and A332.

KrisYYZ

I can see CAN and/or CTU perhaps, and another 777 used to up-gauge a current A330 destination, freeing a frame to retire a 767.

Quoting krisyyz (Reply 10): Interesting news! There was a thread here not too long ago that talked about AC exercising 2 B77W options and possibly leasing those birds out, as AC may not require them. So if AC leases 5 77Ls, would they still lease out the 2 77Ws that are due in 2013?

In addition to the 2 77Ws ordered in August 2011, 3 more 77Ws were ordered earlier this month, May 2012.

Quoting pnwtraveler (Reply 9): it has been clear from AC that new China destinations, possibly both YVR and YYZ are high priorities

Quoting blueflyer (Reply 11): I can see CAN and/or CTU perhaps, and another 777 used to up-gauge a current A330 destination, freeing a frame to retire a 767.

But CZ and Sichuan have already come into YVR on these exact routes, so the opportunities are disappearing. Maybe AC are realizing this and are going to do something about it. IMO the 77L is the wrong kind of metal for these routes though, so they must be getting a helluva deal.

Would not be surprised this is about eventual A330 replacement long term. 787's will replace 767's pretty much 1-1, the big busses will need to be replaced at some point.

Quoting yyztpa (Reply 12): In addition to the 2 77Ws ordered in August 2011, 3 more 77Ws were ordered earlier this month, May 2012.

Wasn't aware of that, thanks. When are they scheduled to be delivered?

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 13): Would not be surprised this is about eventual A330 replacement long term.

I thought AC's long-term plan was to replace the A333s with 787-9s, from what I know, AC is pretty happy with the A333s, especially on the trans-Atlantic routes.


KrisYYZ

Quoting sweair (Reply 2): The 77L is my favorite 777, such brute force it has, like a rocket

Agreeed....besides the A330 which I wish AC would hold on to.

I am willing to bet these are coming from AI since they are looking to lease out 5 77L

If AC does take the 5 AI 77Ls I believe it will make AC the largest 77L operator with 11, followed by DL and EK, each with 10.

Quoting krisyyz (Reply 14): I thought AC's long-term plan was to replace the A333s with 787-9s, from what I know, AC is pretty happy with the A333s, especially on the trans-Atlantic routes.

I think so, Im just talking long term general fleet total once even the 333's are gone as the number of 787's on order wont replace the 767's & A330's. Whereas adding 5x 77L & 2x 77W will - coincidence?

I think the 777 is too much metal for secondary Chinese markets, but should work for established routes like YVR - NRT, PVG & PEK and HKG needs to go twice daily to compete with CX. South America could also use the 777 cargo capacity. Short term that allows 767's to go back to the lessors. Long term, that frees up 787's to replace the 333's.

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 17): I think so, Im just talking long term general fleet total once even the 333's are gone as the number of 787's on order wont replace the 767's & A330's. Whereas adding 5x 77L & 2x 77W will - coincidence?

Probably not, and AC's A333s and B77Ls are very close in capacity so in theory it would make sense. Having an all Boeing wide-body fleet is AC's goal in the end.

KrisYYZ

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 17): South America could also use the 777 cargo capacity.

Perhaps GRU could see the 777 on a year round basis and the 767 could be used to open GIG. Brazil and Canada have an open-skies agreement so frequencies are not an issue and GIG is facing a strong economic expansion and strenghtening. Beats me what is still keeping AC away from there.

Quoting krisyyz (Reply 18): Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 17): I think so, Im just talking long term general fleet total once even the 333's are gone as the number of 787's on order wont replace the 767's & A330's. Whereas adding 5x 77L & 2x 77W will - coincidence? Probably not, and AC's A333s and B77Ls are very close in capacity so in theory it would make sense. Having an all Boeing wide-body fleet is AC's goal in the end.

Wouldn't make economic sense to use the 77L on a route the A333 can handle. The 77L is over 50% heavier, meaning significantly higher fuel expenses not to mention much higher landing fees which in most of the world are based on maximum takeoff weight.

Unless you need the range, the 77W is a better option than the 77L since you can generate much more revenue from the additional seats (and cargo space). That's why so few 77Ls have been sold (only 57 orders of which 54 have been delivered in over 12 years since the 77L was launched) compared to 607 orders (332 delivered) for the 77W during the same period.

I don't see AC having many routes suitable for the 77L apart from those they're already operating. Would only make sense if the AI lease deal is very attractive.

Quoting sxf24 (Reply 1): I wonder if these are the planes QR has reportedly been trying to remarket.

I hadn't heard this one. Why don't QR want/need them?

Quoting COEWR787 (Reply 5): Hats off to Air-India for figuring out how to not be able to operate 777s profitably.

That isn't AI not being able to use 77L frames profitably, that is the sign that AI is finally having to rethink their major long-haul fleet and destinations, owing to the almost monthlong and still ongoing strike by the pilots and staff within the airline.

Yes, the aircraft being considered are coming from AI.

It is a possible 10 year lease, so putting a regular AC interior would make sense over such a long time.

The talk is for a high density, low yield configuration for low yield markets. 8 abreast Y+ and 10 abreast Y. With the ULH capability, I am thinking India ... again!

I'm having a hard time convincing myself that AC is serious about adding additional 77L to their fleet. As already mentioned,it's a heavy aircraft and ULH flights are challenging from a profitability point of view. With fuel prices as they are,it's a risky move.

Quoting blueflyer (Reply 11): I can see CAN and/or CTU perhaps, and another 777 used to up-gauge a current A330 destination, freeing a frame to retire a 767.

Not sure I would agree that a 777 is an upgrade from a A330. The seating configuration is much better on the A330 and it's quieter.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 8): A bit harsh in wording. Alas this is true until AI improves their efficiency (e.g., employees per airframe and not cutting the ones customers care about). The Indian economy is being held hostage to AI. While there are signs that there are more opportunities for the private airlines, I'll wait to see the bilateral rights actually assigned and flown.

India is still a lower yield market, and those with money tend to fly either Jet or foreign carriers. To be fair to AI, most airlines have struggled to make non-stop India to the Americas work.

The only thing that commands a premium at AI are their staff.

Quoting blueflyer (Reply 11): I can see CAN and/or CTU perhaps, and another 777 used to up-gauge a current A330 destination, freeing a frame to retire a 767.

The 77L is not required for CTU or CAN. These routes are already served by CZ and the excellent Sichuan airlines at a far lower cost base than AC will ever have.

Quoting longhauler (Reply 23): The talk is for a high density, low yield configuration for low yield markets. 8 abreast Y+ and 10 abreast Y. With the ULH capability, I am thinking India ... again!

Im not sure if any network carrier has made money from ULH high density low yield before, and AC won't be the first.

Quoting bestwestern (Reply 26): Im not sure if any network carrier has made money from ULH high density low yield before, and AC won't be the first

they key question is how much will AC pay for the aircrafts.. if they get a very sweet deal , it might work and we might be surprised   

[Edited 2012-05-27 20:31:08]

Quoting pnwtraveler (Reply 9): YUL to Turkey to dovetail with TK to YYZ has been hinted at lately. Also perhaps to dovetail with Ethiopian although I think volume isn't there for that until the route builds significantly.

That can be done with a 763.

Quoting pnwtraveler (Reply 4): Air India airframes have come up previously. There were some "maintenance issues" or combatability issues that caused the pause or delay.

There were discussions some time ago regarding these frames, as well as some of AI's earlier 787 slots, but because of several issues it was never followed through on. AI has never been known for it's maintenance (even though these are relatively new birds), which, among other things made AC reluctant to take them. I honestly don't think this time will be any different, unless someone comes along to help push this deal through (like a certain manufacturer who might want to see AC operating an exclusive widebody fleet), or the price is just too good to turn down.

Quoting krisyyz (Reply 14): I thought AC's long-term plan was to replace the A333s with 787-9s, from what I know, AC is pretty happy with the A333s, especially on the trans-Atlantic routes.

They are very happy with them, but keeping a small subfleet of A/C (only 8) is not the most economical choice. It has been stated that the 333's (unfortunately) will probably be the first to exit the fleet once the 787's are online, and in numbers. Although AC has not yet exercised, or converted any options for the 789, it is probably a matter of "when".

Quoting krisyyz (Reply 10): Any chance AC would keep the 3 class set-up and charge a premium on top of the Executive Class fare?

To maintain fleet commonality the layout will either match AC's current offering of J & Y, or the high density set-up of Y+ & Y. However, in the future, I think you will see a 3 class offering from AC, as a Y+ offering appeals to a wider range of customers, and could bring in some extra revenue.

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 17): I think so, Im just talking long term general fleet total once even the 333's are gone as the number of 787's on order wont replace the 767's & A330's. Whereas adding 5x 77L & 2x 77W will - coincidence?

Like someone has stated already, currently there are 5 orders for 77W's (which leaves 13 options), which are much needed. These new birds are not strictly for opening new routes, but rather maintaining existing ones, as the current fleet is stretched thin. Keep in mind several 767's have been returned recently, and there will likely be some more coming up. These new 77W's will help keep the fleet where the planners/operations need it to be. Not to mention the fact that they are fantastic airplanes that generate *a lot* of revenue when utilized right. Long term fleet plans will be 777 and 787's, and while the current number of 787's on order aren't 1:1 replacements, AC holds quite a few options that can easily be converted.

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 17): Short term that allows 767's to go back to the lessors. Long term, that frees up 787's to replace the 333's.

Current indications are the 333's will leave the fleet before the majority of the 767's do, although if fuel prices keep going higher, this *could* change. Or maybe even more 777's will be added 

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 20): I don't see AC having many routes suitable for the 77L apart from those they're already operating. Would only make sense if the AI lease deal is very attractive.

Agreed, although there are a couple routes that have been talked about that could utilize them, though not ULH. Like Longhauler mentioned, India is a possibility (wouldn't AI just love to see that?   ), China from YYZ, or SA (possibly a route from YVR). The YVR-SYD route has been a great performer for AC, and I'm wondering if they couldn't make a very serious go of either MEL or BNE with the new additions (wishful thinking mainly ).

Maybe we will see them flying into JNB.   

I was immiadetely thinking Air India when I read the thread title. AI has been trying to offload some 777s for more than a year already.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 20): Unless you need the range, the 77W is a better option than the 77L since you can generate much more revenue from the additional seats (and cargo space). That's why so few 77Ls have been sold (only 57 orders of which 54 have been delivered in over 12 years since the 77L was launched) compared to 607 orders (332 delivered) for the 77W during the same period.

This is why Boeing was initially not going to bother with the 77L. There were a few airlines that wanted it, though, and so they built it. I wonder if they will ever make money on it; with the 787 coming on that will ultimately come close to its range the window for the 77L is not very big. I don't know whether or not the existence of the 77L saved much time or money on the 777F development; I suspect not-they could have done pretty much the same without it. But with all of that being said, the 77L is a magnificent plane and it is nice that it exists.

Great to see more 777s in AC's terrific livery  

Quoting ac853 (Reply 25): Not sure I would agree that a 777 is an upgrade from a A330. The seating configuration is much better on the A330 and it's quieter.

The term is 'upgauge', not 'upgrade'. The term 'upgauge' simply means using a larger aircraft.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 32): I wonder if they will ever make money on it

I don't think that matters, given the success of the 777 program as a whole. I don't know how Boeing does its accounting, but I would suspect that the 777NG program which spawned the 77L, 77W and 77F is budgeted as one program.

Quoting ANM604 (Reply 29): AI has never been known for it's maintenance (even though these are relatively new birds) which, among other things made AC reluctant to take them.

What nonsense. AI is poorly managed, yes, but it operates some of the top MROs in India.

Quoting COEWR787 (Reply 5): Hats off to Air-India for figuring out how to not be able to operate 777s profitably.

I'd like to see anybody operate the 77L profitably on USA-India. It's a notoriously low-yield market, which along with the high costs of the 77L (not to mention the high costs in Indian aviation) spells disaster. It's good that AI is trying to get rid of these frames for a while - they can operate the current schedule and more with the 77Ws and 787s that they have.

Quoting JOYA380B747 (Reply 22): That isn't AI not being able to use 77L frames profitably, that is the sign that AI is finally having to rethink their major long-haul fleet and destinations, owing to the almost monthlong and still ongoing strike by the pilots and staff within the airline.

AI management has been trying to get rid of these frames since 2009, but it's been held up in the bureaucratic process. They wanted to lease the birds to TK, but 9W got the deal instead due to the delays.

This has absolutely nothing to do with the strikes.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 20): Unless you need the range, the 77W is a better option than the 77L since you can generate much more revenue from the additional seats (and cargo space). That's why so few 77Ls have been sold (only 57 orders of which 54 have been delivered in over 12 years since the 77L was launched) compared to 607 orders (332 delivered) for the 77W during the same period.

This is exactly why AI wants to get rid of the birds - if their schedule can be flown more profitably with 77Ws which they have, why do they need 77Ls around?

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 8): The Indian economy is being held hostage to AI. While there are signs that there are more opportunities for the private airlines, I'll wait to see the bilateral rights actually assigned and flown.

*sigh* - I thought I'd explained this already. Apart from some Gulf (Hajj) destinations, private carriers are free to fly where they want. Any requests by 9W/6E/SG for bilateral rights have been granted as long as there is space in the bilateral, with limited consideration of AI's perspective.

[Edited 2012-05-28 06:31:25]

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 33): I don't think that matters, given the success of the 777 program as a whole. I don't know how Boeing does its accounting, but I would suspect that the 777NG program which spawned the 77L, 77W and 77F is budgeted as one program.

Certainly the overall 777 program has been a huge financial success; and the NG program has been a big part of it. But I have never known of a company that would not like to make more profit, and enjoys money-losing programs. I am sure Boeing did not expect to sell hundreds of 77L's, but I'm sure they are disappointed that they did not sell more. But you are probably correct in that they have buried the cost of the 77L in the overall program and nobody is losing any sleep over it.

Quoting ANM604 (Reply 29): They are very happy with them, but keeping a small subfleet of A/C (only 8) is not the most economical choice. It has been stated that the 333's (unfortunately) will probably be the first to exit the fleet once the 787's are online, and in numbers. Although AC has not yet exercised, or converted any options for the 789, it is probably a matter of "when".

The order had a split number of 788 and 789 fins from the get-go, and that number is adjusted with Boeing periodically along with AC's long-term routing planning. When the 788 visited Toronto in March, I as told by someone who should know that the current split is almost 50/50.

Quoting sebring (Reply 36): The order had a split number of 788 and 789 fins from the get-go, and that number is adjusted with Boeing periodically along with AC's long-term routing planning.

AC with the 777 and now with the 787 has a clause in their contracts that they can switch between models up to xx number of months from start of manufacture. The longest lead unique item to each model would likely be the time decider. First received will still be 788, so they likely have an idea now what the split will be but have time to adjust it again. I was told (who knows if it is true or pilot gossip) that slots are reserved for some of the options and those will be converted to formal orders when the current round of labour issues is settled.

Is there a time frame for the handover of the 77Ls? I suspect it will take a few months for AC to put them into service.

Quoting bestwestern (Reply 26): India is still a lower yield market, and those with money tend to fly either Jet or foreign carriers. To be fair to AI, most airlines have struggled to make non-stop India to the Americas work.

I suspect that will remain true. I could see AC flying these 77Ls to IST (or using them to free up other aircraft for that flight) with *A (TK) connections further onward.

Quoting bestwestern (Reply 26): he only thing that commands a premium at AI are their staff.

   That needs to be worked on. The #1 demand of premium customers is reliability and AI has too many strikes... That makes ULH operations a non-starter for AI.

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 34): I thought I'd explained this already. Apart from some Gulf (Hajj) destinations, private carriers are free to fly where they want. Any requests by 9W/6E/SG for bilateral rights have been granted as long as there is space in the bilateral, with limited consideration of AI's perspective.

The other airlines might have the right to apply, but the GOI has proven they can drag their feet for years; until I see the flights, why would anyone believe anything has changed? I would love to be proven wrong. Please provide examples/links.

Heck, even the Indian press highly favors AI:
http://articles.economictimes.indiat...s-indian-carriers-private-carriers

Notice how they try to imply the whole Indian aviation industry is losing money? Instead, its a billion+ USD loss for AI in FY13, 0.2 billion loss for IT (how? On so few aircraft...), and the other ones making a small profit.

Lightsaber

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 38): Is there a time frame for the handover of the 77Ls? I suspect it will take a few months for AC to put them into service.

It will take months for AI to get all necessary ministry approvals to proceed.

Not sure when the process started though, so it could be soon..

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 38): The other airlines might have the right to apply, but the GOI has proven they can drag their feet for years; until I see the flights, why would anyone believe anything has changed? I would love to be proven wrong. Please provide examples/links.

other airlines not only have the right to reply, but have also been awarded many many rights. Once they have the rights, MoCA has limited power (and limited political will) to try to block...

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 38): Heck, even the Indian press highly favors AI

        

The Indian press hates AI with a passion. Usually, they lose no opportunity to slam the airline.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 38): Notice how they try to imply the whole Indian aviation industry is losing money? Instead, its a billion+ USD loss for AI in FY13, 0.2 billion loss for IT (how? On so few aircraft...), and the other ones making a small profit.

Nobody (other than arguably 6E) is making a profit. It is not innacurate to say that the industry is losing money. i agree that this article favors AI through exclusion of AI's data, but this is an outlier. As I said, press normally loses no opporunity to slam AI.

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 34): AI management has been trying to get rid of these frames since 2009, but it's been held up in the bureaucratic process. They wanted to lease the birds to TK, but 9W got the deal instead due to the delays.

Hmm I was out of touch with this information, thanks.

So I'm guessing this is how things at AI work, you plan to order a fleet of jets in one year, that plan is made to be approved across every idle governmental office and MP, and by the time it is passed, the times change and so does the importance of the original order at that time.
This may not be true for 77Ls since they still serve their purpose now, but why on Earth did AI order them in the first place when they decided to get 'rid of these frames' hardly 2-3 yrs after purchasing them?

If they don't know what they are doing with their 77Ls I bet they won't know what to do with their 787s a few years down the line as well.....

So instead to purchasing a/c and trying to get rid of them, wont getting rid of the airline as a whole serve better?

Quoting JOYA380B747 (Reply 40): So I'm guessing this is how things at AI work, you plan to order a fleet of jets in one year, that plan is made to be approved across every idle governmental office and MP, and by the time it is passed, the times change and so does the importance of the original order at that time.

Indeed. Jitender Bhargava wrote an excellent piece on the destructive results of this a few years ago - well worth a read:
http://www.business-standard.com/ind...ender-bhargavacostbeingpsu/390613/

There are a lot of ways that AI suffers from being a public organization. The government interference is the most obvious, but these bureaucratic costs, and the fact that everything must be on the book (so AI cannot engage in practices like paying off journalists for good PR like the private airlines). It's really sad to see a once proud carrier burdened like this. Of course, AI still is pretty good from a passenger perspective (my preferred carrier), but this unnecessary cost for taxpayers is truly saddening.

Quoting JOYA380B747 (Reply 40): This may not be true for 77Ls since they still serve their purpose now, but why on Earth did AI order them in the first place when they decided to get 'rid of these frames' hardly 2-3 yrs after purchasing them?

AI probably ordered them because Boeing bribed the right people. That's a guess, but one I'm pretty confident about   Praful made no secret that his primary job was businessman, and being Minister of Civil Aviation was only a secondary priority.

Anyway, AI has no use for the extra range whatsoever. The only result of operating the 77L over the 77W is worse fuel economy and less revenue capability (pax and cargo). So in a way, it's good that they are finally getting rid of them.

Quoting JOYA380B747 (Reply 40): If they don't know what they are doing with their 77Ls I bet they won't know what to do with their 787s a few years down the line as well.....

The 787, unlike the 77L, was a good buy. It suits the operational needs of AI almost perfectly, and the early delivery slots gives them a competitive advantage (although somewhat nullified by other costs). I don't expect them to be getting rid of the 787 for decades, although the aviation industry can change very quickly so long term predictions are usually a bad idea.

Quoting JOYA380B747 (Reply 40): So instead to purchasing a/c and trying to get rid of them, wont getting rid of the airline as a whole serve better?

You know my position on Air India's survival - this is clearly bait. I won't regurgitate my position because quite frankly, I have better things to do.

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 34): I'd like to see anybody operate the 77L profitably on USA-India. It's a notoriously low-yield market, which along with the high costs of the 77L (not to mention the high costs in Indian aviation) spells disaster. It's good that AI is trying to get rid of these frames for a while - they can operate the current schedule and more with the 77Ws and 787s that they have.

Continental probably could... SFO-BLR by UA might work someday on a 77L (though UA will likely never order them).

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 34): *sigh* - I thought I'd explained this already. Apart from some Gulf (Hajj) destinations, private carriers are free to fly where they want. Any requests by 9W/6E/SG for bilateral rights have been granted as long as there is space in the bilateral, with limited consideration of AI's perspective.

AI isn't holding the Indian economy hostage because of bilaterals, it's doing so b/c it is subsidized by GoI to price it's air travel below costs, and not just below costs, but far enough below costs that if they were a private carrier, they'd shut down tomorrow. This is market manipulation to the nth degree, and it destroys yields and fares for the other Indian carriers. Secondly, GoI is wasting billions upon billions of rupees on Air India when it has more pressing things (like 300+ million people in poverty) to deal with.

I've been working on estimating just how much money AI's market manipulation and other issues have cost the Indian airline market in lost profits; just know that the number runs into the billions.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 38): Notice how they try to imply the whole Indian aviation industry is losing money? Instead, its a billion+ USD loss for AI in FY13, 0.2 billion loss for IT (how? On so few aircraft...), and the other ones making a small profit. Lightsaber

Actually, only IndiGo is profitable, I think you're looking at FY2010 numbers. Jet lost a ton of money (~$222 million), SpiceJet will likely report a net loss, GoAir is most likely a few million below break even, and KF and AI's issues are well documented.

Jet will hopefully (if oil plateaus at $85-90/bbl as many analysts are predicting) make money in Q3 or Q4 of FY2012, but they're very much losing money right now.

Quoting vin2basketball (Reply 42): Continental probably could... SFO-BLR by UA might work someday on a 77L (though UA will likely never order them).

I really doubt this. It's too long, and the yields aren't that great.

Quoting vin2basketball (Reply 42): AI isn't holding the Indian economy hostage because of bilaterals, it's doing so b/c it is subsidized by GoI to price it's air travel below costs, and not just below costs, but far enough below costs that if they were a private carrier, they'd shut down tomorrow.

You always love to attribute the low yields to AI, but one effect you completely leave out is the LCCs, which are far more important competitors to 9W than AI is in many ways. SG and 6E in particular have been slashing fares like crazy, and the very price-sensitive Indian market simply is not willing to pay more for FSCs. That's why AI has to cut prices to maintain decent loads, and that's why 9W is putting Konnect on most of its domestic network. Unfortunately for 9W, Konnect has higher costs than 6E/SG/G8, so it can't price competitively and remain profitable.

Either way, the recent bailout/restructuring package demands yield management improvements at AI which should mitigate any Air India "fare war" effect that you keep referencing.

And do keep in mind that both AI and IC were profitable before the merger - and fares have not crashed since then. ATF has shot up, and merger costs have added up to a lot, but it's not like AI is suddenly destroying the yields for everyone else.

Quoting vin2basketball (Reply 42): I've been working on estimating just how much money AI's market manipulation and other issues have cost the Indian airline market in lost profits; just know that the number runs into the billions.

There are other effects at play, and until you take those into account, this entire exercise is a waste of time.

Quoting vin2basketball (Reply 42): Actually, only IndiGo is profitable,

Arguable. Nobody has actually seen the numbers, and they've been sale-leasebacking like crazy...

Quoting vin2basketball (Reply 42): Jet will hopefully (if oil plateaus at $85-90/bbl as many analysts are predicting) make money in Q3 or Q4 of FY2012, but they're very much losing money right now.

Their revenue is going to crash if they keep on devaluing their product like this - they're almost like an LCC charging FSC prices, and consumers are starting to pick up on this...

[Edited 2012-05-28 10:57:26]

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 43): Arguable. Nobody has actually seen the numbers, and they've been sale-leasebacking like crazy...

Profit is profit

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 43): You always love to attribute the low yields to AI, but one effect you completely leave out is the LCCs, which are far more important competitors to 9W than AI is in many ways. SG and 6E in particular have been slashing fares like crazy, and the very price-sensitive Indian market simply is not willing to pay more for FSCs. That's why AI has to cut prices to maintain decent loads, and that's why 9W is putting Konnect on most of its domestic network. Unfortunately for 9W, Konnect has higher costs than 6E/SG/G8, so it can't price competitively and remain profitable.

Tell me again how SG and 6E affect F-class yields, international yields, or even domestic inelastic business yields?

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 43): And do keep in mind that both AI and IC were profitable before the merger - and fares have not crashed since then. ATF has shot up, and merger costs have added up to a lot, but it's not like AI is suddenly destroying the yields for everyone else.

Fares in US dollars are crashing; the rupee has lost more than 40% of its value since 2007/2008; inflation is propping the nominal fare figures up.

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 43): I really doubt this. It's too long, and the yields aren't that great.

The yields are quite good for UA, who has a good chunk of the Silicon Valley frequent flyers. But it's a moot point b/c UA doesn't have the a/c to do it. They'll probably add EWR-BLR with the 787s at some point though.

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 43):

With all due respect, let's try to stick to the topic, and not the state of AI or Indian Aviation in general.

Quoting sebring (Reply 36): The order had a split number of 788 and 789 fins from the get-go, and that number is adjusted with Boeing periodically along with AC's long-term routing planning. When the 788 visited Toronto in March, I as told by someone who should know that the current split is almost 50/50.

I'm well aware there are numbers internally, however I meant that publicly, AC has not given any guidance on what the split will be, or if the 789 order will be taken up in the form of options (they hold 23 options).

Quoting pnwtraveler (Reply 37): First received will still be 788, so they likely have an idea now what the split will be but have time to adjust it again. I was told (who knows if it is true or pilot gossip) that slots are reserved for some of the options and those will be converted to formal orders when the current round of labour issues is settled.

Correct. However, the converting of options is not tied to labour disputes, as they have ordered 77W's during this period. The conversion of options likely has more to do with financing available to them, and the fact that they already have a sizable number on the books.

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 39): It will take months for AI to get all necessary ministry approvals to proceed. Not sure when the process started though, so it could be soon..

Current indications are that they are just talking, nothing has been signed or approved, so likely that process hasn't begun. At this point, I still remain skeptical this deal will go through.

Quoting longhauler (Reply 23): The talk is for a high density, low yield configuration for low yield markets. 8 abreast Y+ and 10 abreast Y.

Or for something totally out of left field.....  .


http://www.gcmap.com/map?P=yyz+-+mnl...per&MS=wls&MR=1200&MX=720x360&PM=*

Quoting ANM604 (Reply 29): I'm wondering if they couldn't make a very serious go of either MEL or BNE with the new additions (wishful thinking mainly

You may even wish SWA!   

Quoting ANM604 (Reply 29): They are very happy with them, but keeping a small subfleet of A/C (only 8) is not the most economical choice. It has been stated that the 333's (unfortunately) will probably be the first to exit the fleet once the 787's are online, and in numbers. Although AC has not yet exercised, or converted any options for the 789, it is probably a matter of "when".

Really? So AC would rather see the A333s leave the fleet before the aging B763s, that is surprising. Although I can't speak to the dispatch reliability rates of AC's 763s vs 333s, How are the 767s doing?

Quoting pnwtraveler (Reply 37): AC with the 777 and now with the 787 has a clause in their contracts that they can switch between models up to xx number of months from start of manufacture. The longest lead unique item to each model would likely be the time decider. First received will still be 788, so they likely have an idea now what the split will be but have time to adjust it again. I was told (who knows if it is true or pilot gossip) that slots are reserved for some of the options and those will be converted to formal orders when the current round of labour issues is settled.

Quoting sebring (Reply 36): The order had a split number of 788 and 789 fins from the get-go, and that number is adjusted with Boeing periodically along with AC's long-term routing planning. When the 788 visited Toronto in March, I as told by someone who should know that the current split is almost 50/50.

Interesting, thanks for sharing this...

KrisYYZ

Quoting vin2basketball (Reply 42): Actually, only IndiGo is profitable, I think you're looking at FY2010 numbers. Jet lost a ton of money (~$222 million), SpiceJet will likely report a net loss, GoAir is most likely a few million below break

I am corrected. I thought Spicejet and GoAir were doing better. I knew about AI, IT, and 9W. Yikes!

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 39): but this is an outlier. As I said, press normally loses no opporunity to slam AI.

Fair enough. I'm not exposed to it day to day.

Quoting vin2basketball (Reply 42): AI isn't holding the Indian economy hostage because of bilaterals, it's doing so b/c it is subsidized by GoI to price it's air travel below costs, and not just below costs, but far enough below costs that if they were a private carrier, they'd shut down tomorrow.

Estimate $1B USD for FY2013... Yikes! $3 (USD) for everyone in India.

Quoting vin2basketball (Reply 42): I've been working on estimating just how much money AI's market manipulation and other issues have cost the Indian airline market in lost profits; just know that the number runs into the billions.

I would be curious to know the number.

I apologize for taking this thread off track. This is about AC leasing 5 77Ls. While they are coming from AI, I'm going to refrain from commenting further on AI unless I'm quoted in this thread.

I'm very interested to see what routes AC starts with 77Ls. Will they all be YYZ based or other Canadian 'homes.'

Lightsaber

Sadly, it sounds like a plan to phase out the 763 and eventually the A333. The 763's are just too old and a subfleet of A330's isn't a smart idea when you're trying to cut down on maintenance costs.