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saloman
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RE: Air Canada In Talks To Lease 5 B777-200LRs

Mon May 28, 2012 11:26 pm

Quoting krisyyz (Reply 47):
Really? So AC would rather see the A333s leave the fleet before the aging B763s, that is surprising. Although I can't speak to the dispatch reliability rates of AC's 763s vs 333s, How are the 767s doing?

I don't think the choice ever was A333 or B763, as the 763 is a smaller aircraft. The choice of A333 or B77L entirely makes sense as the A/Cs are very similar in size, and Air Canada operates small sub fleets of both.
 
aeroblogger
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RE: Air Canada In Talks To Lease 5 B777-200LRs

Mon May 28, 2012 11:45 pm

Quoting ANM604 (Reply 45):

With all due respect, let's try to stick to the topic, and not the state of AI or Indian Aviation in general.

Yes, my apologies.

Quoting ANM604 (Reply 45):

Current indications are that they are just talking, nothing has been signed or approved, so likely that process hasn't begun. At this point, I still remain skeptical this deal will go through.

Agreed. And if the deal goes through, we won't know for months.
#AvGeek
 
ANM604
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RE: Air Canada In Talks To Lease 5 B777-200LRs

Tue May 29, 2012 1:04 am

Quoting krisyyz (Reply 47):
Really? So AC would rather see the A333s leave the fleet before the aging B763s, that is surprising. Although I can't speak to the dispatch reliability rates of AC's 763s vs 333s, How are the 767s doing?

Yes they would rather see the 333's leave first, but not because of their performance or dispatch reliability (which is very good, for sure better then the 767). It all comes down to numbers, and maintaining a small fleet of A/C that does not share much commonality with other fleet types is expensive. The 333 is a fantastic aircraft, from both a company and passenger perspective, but the fleet is just to small, and the added expense too large to justifying keeping them, sadly.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 48):
I'm very interested to see what routes AC starts with 77Ls. Will they all be YYZ based or other Canadian 'homes.'

*If* these birds are added to the fleet, I wouldn't expect more then one new route to open up. More then likely they will be used to take the pressure off the existing 777 fleet, and to upguage existing routes. I think you'll see them mainly out of YYZ, but possibly YVR as well.

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 51):
Agreed. And if the deal goes through, we won't know for months.

and months, and months... 
 
vin2basketball
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RE: Air Canada In Talks To Lease 5 B777-200LRs

Tue May 29, 2012 1:32 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 48):

I would be curious to know the number.

I apologize for taking this thread off track. This is about AC leasing 5 77Ls. While they are coming from AI, I'm going to refrain from commenting further on AI unless I'm quoted in this thread.

I'm very interested to see what routes AC starts with 77Ls. Will they all be YYZ based or other Canadian 'homes.'

Lightsaber


I'm still trying to nail down the max below cost figure (i.e whats the lowest price below cost that an airline can sustain long term in a plateau- not in the rapid growth phase where investors are suckered in), as well as the price elasticity of demand for domestic, and international flights.

But to get the thread back on track, I'm not sure that AC will want these birds unless AI literally gives them away. The cost of retrofitting the AI 77Ls from their current 8Y/35J/195Y configs to AC's 42J/228Y config must run into the tens of millions for these 5 a/c.

Moreover, the 77L isn't exactly a superb a/c from a CASM perspective.
 
aeroblogger
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RE: Air Canada In Talks To Lease 5 B777-200LRs

Tue May 29, 2012 1:43 am

Quoting vin2basketball (Reply 44):


Profit is profit

There is a difference between profit and sustainable profit.

Quoting vin2basketball (Reply 44):

Tell me again how SG and 6E affect F-class yields, international yields, or even domestic inelastic business yields?

They don't (except for SIN/BKK/KTM/CMB).

However, there are a lot of factors at play - Indian international routes are mostly low yield VFR/leisure routes. Blaming that on AI is ridiculous.

Quoting vin2basketball (Reply 44):

Fares in US dollars are crashing; the rupee has lost more than 40% of its value since 2007/2008; inflation is propping the nominal fare figures up.

Fair point.

Quoting vin2basketball (Reply 53):

But to get the thread back on track, I'm not sure that AC will want these birds unless AI literally gives them away. The cost of retrofitting the AI 77Ls from their current 8Y/35J/195Y configs to AC's 42J/228Y config must run into the tens of millions for these 5 a/c.

If this is an 8-10 year lease, then the investment will definitely be worth it.

Quoting vin2basketball (Reply 53):

Moreover, the 77L isn't exactly a superb a/c from a CASM perspective.

True. That's why AI doesn't want it either...

But I think that being able to phase out an entire fleet group (A330) will improve costs enough to make this deal worth it.
#AvGeek
 
krisyyz
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RE: Air Canada In Talks To Lease 5 B777-200LRs

Tue May 29, 2012 2:14 am

Quoting ANM604 (Reply 52):
Yes they would rather see the 333's leave first, but not because of their performance or dispatch reliability (which is very good, for sure better then the 767). It all comes down to numbers, and maintaining a small fleet of A/C that does not share much commonality with other fleet types is expensive. The 333 is a fantastic aircraft, from both a company and passenger perspective, but the fleet is just to small, and the added expense too large to justifying keeping them, sadly.

Sad indeed, but I understand the rationale. Moving towards an all Boeing widebody fleet and greater engine commonality where highlighted as a major reason for the 777/787 order.

Thanks,

KrisYYZ
 
StarAC17
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RE: Air Canada In Talks To Lease 5 B777-200LRs

Tue May 29, 2012 2:31 am

Quoting 9252fly (Reply 24):

I'm having a hard time convincing myself that AC is serious about adding additional 77L to their fleet. As already mentioned,it's a heavy aircraft and ULH flights are challenging from a profitability point of view. With fuel prices as they are,it's a risky move.

The bog advantage that the 77L has is cargo, which is why AC operates it on YYZ-HKG where CX uses a 77W. The 77W ia weight restricted on that route. I could see AC using these to expand to Asia especially when CX is reducing its frequencies to YYZ. I would think India might not be as profitable with pax but could do very well with cargo.
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lightsaber
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RE: Air Canada In Talks To Lease 5 B777-200LRs

Tue May 29, 2012 2:45 am

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 51):
Agreed. And if the deal goes through, we won't know for months.

We can all agree on that. Although I think AC wouldn't mind them in house earlier.

Quoting ANM604 (Reply 52):
The 333 is a fantastic aircraft, from both a company and passenger perspective, but the fleet is just to small, and the added expense too large to justifying keeping them, sadly.

Interesting perspective. My opinion is 17 is the minimum for a subtype for any fleet. With only 8 A330s, they are the 'odd man out.' However, with AC, they'll have to mix and match their 777 fleet a bit for decent economics. Even when they lease 5 more.  
Quoting ANM604 (Reply 52):
*If* these birds are added to the fleet, I wouldn't expect more then one new route to open up. More then likely they will be used to take the pressure off the existing 777 fleet, and to upguage existing routes. I think you'll see them mainly out of YYZ, but possibly YVR as well.

Interesting. I don't think they'll take the pressure off much (that lowers costs). I could see upgauging, but I would think there would be more than one new route. Just my 'hunch.'

Lightsaber
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tayser
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RE: Air Canada In Talks To Lease 5 B777-200LRs

Tue May 29, 2012 3:08 am

The perfect plane for YUL-YVR-MEL, creating a scissor hub in YVR for YYZ/YUL and SYD/MEL completing avoiding the USA (at least $100 premium right there) and giving some extra domestic capacity.
 
tayser
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RE: Air Canada In Talks To Lease 5 B777-200LRs

Tue May 29, 2012 3:34 am

Quoting tayser (Reply 58):
The perfect plane for YUL-YVR-MEL, creating a scissor hub in YVR for YUL and SYD/MEL completing avoiding the USA (at least $100 premium right there) and giving some extra domestic capacity.

current AC33/34 timetable (data from google):

8:25 pm → 10:13 pm YVR S M T W T F S Air Canada 33 [5h1m]
11:45 pm → 8:15 am YVR-SYD S M T W T F S Air Canada 33 [15h13m]


10:25 am → 7:30 am SYD-YVR S M T W T F S Air Canada 34 [14h5m]
9:00 am → 4:20 pm YVR-YUL-YVR-MEL-YVR-YUL timetable (extrapolating from google + adding 50m to the YVR-SYD-YVR journey for MEL timings):


7:45 pm → 9:45 pm YUL-YVR S M T W T F S Air Canada XXX [5h23m] - 77L replaces 320 currently flying AC129
11:00 pm → 8:30 am YVR-MEL S M T W T F S Air Canada XXX [16h]

10:30 am → 8:20 am MEL-YVR S M T W T F S Air Canada XXX [14h55m]
9:50 am → 5:00 pm YVR-YUL S M T W T F S Air Canada XXX [4h44m] - 77L replaces 320 currently flying AC150

16 hours is well within the 77L's specs, or?

No non-stop Canadian flights from MEL - or more to the point no non-stop Star Alliance to North America (all SYD or via AKL), MEL produces a lot of goods so belly probably wouldn't be an issue to fill up with cargo, opportunity to tie up with QF further, or let VA whore itself out to another carrier and feed TAS, SA, WA out of MEL and ACT and QLD out of SYD.



edit: the bbcode on this forum is damned near impossible to edit... argh


[Edited 2012-05-28 20:41:32]
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Air Canada In Talks To Lease 5 B777-200LRs

Tue May 29, 2012 3:47 am

Quoting vin2basketball (Reply 53):
But to get the thread back on track, I'm not sure that AC will want these birds unless AI literally gives them away. The cost of retrofitting the AI 77Ls from their current 8Y/35J/195Y configs to AC's 42J/228Y config must run into the tens of millions for these 5 a/c.

Moreover, the 77L isn't exactly a superb a/c from a CASM perspective.

It isn't, hence the reason I latched onto the 'lease' in the thread title. I see this as a 5 to 7 year solution for AC. Any longer, and it makes more sense for AC to buy either 777s or 787s new. Maybe as short as 4 years, but I doubt the leasing company (or AI) would agree to that.

Lightsaber
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AC853
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RE: Air Canada In Talks To Lease 5 B777-200LRs

Tue May 29, 2012 4:30 am

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 33):
The term is 'upgauge', not 'upgrade'. The term 'upgauge' simply means using a larger aircraft.

Thanks for this. I thought it was a typo.
 
ANM604
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RE: Air Canada In Talks To Lease 5 B777-200LRs

Tue May 29, 2012 6:57 am

Quoting vin2basketball (Reply 53):
The cost of retrofitting the AI 77Ls from their current 8Y/35J/195Y configs to AC's 42J/228Y config must run into the tens of millions for these 5 a/c.

While I'm not an expert in this, I don't see the reconfiguration costing more then $20 million, barring these planes being substantially different from what AC currently operates (as in avionics, engines, other airline specific features). I could see AC negotiating for AI to assume some of the cost as well (kind of like a landlord paying for a tenant improvement), which would make the deal much more attractive to AC.

Quoting krisyyz (Reply 55):
Moving towards an all Boeing widebody fleet and greater engine commonality where highlighted as a major reason for the 777/787 order.

Correct. Much better for maintenance, crew commonality etc. Not to mention the improved performance of the new birds.

Quoting StarAC17 (Reply 56):
I could see AC using these to expand to Asia especially when CX is reducing its frequencies to YYZ

Interesting, I hadn't even thought of the CX angle, good point.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 57):
However, with AC, they'll have to mix and match their 777 fleet a bit for decent economics. Even when they lease 5 more.

Keep in mind, these five from AI are on top of the five 77W's that are currently on order with Boeing. So if AC takes all five 77W's, the fleet will be 17 77W's plus the six 772LR's, for a total of 23 frames. *If* the AI deal goes through, the total now jumps to 28 frames, which will help make the fleet more economical.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 57):
Interesting. I don't think they'll take the pressure off much (that lowers costs). I could see upgauging, but I would think there would be more than one new route. Just my 'hunch.'

I agree the pressure won't be off that much, but the more frames, the better. Whether they use them to open more routes or not, having the extra birds around helps the operation when it's running like it is now. However, if we are considering the five new 77W's, then yes, I think you will see more than one new route  
Quoting tayser (Reply 58):
The perfect plane for YUL-YVR-MEL, creating a scissor hub in YVR for YYZ/YUL and SYD/MEL completing avoiding the USA (at least $100 premium right there) and giving some extra domestic capacity.

I had suggested earlier that MEL or BNE might work. Great work with the potential flights, the more I see it, the more I like it. Yes, 16 hours is within the 77LR's range. Thanks for the legwork!
 
aircanada014
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RE: Air Canada In Talks To Lease 5 B777-200LRs

Tue May 29, 2012 11:06 pm

I'd rather see A330 stay a bit longer, they are very nice a/c. It's nice to see AC pick up some more triple 7s
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Air Canada In Talks To Lease 5 B777-200LRs

Tue May 29, 2012 11:26 pm

How is AC doing one 777 down? I'm curious if there has been any notable impact or has AC adapted well?

Quoting ANM604 (Reply 62):
Keep in mind, these five from AI are on top of the five 77W's that are currently on order with Boeing. So if AC takes all five 77W's, the fleet will be 17 77W's plus the six 772LR's, for a total of 23 frames. *If* the AI deal goes through, the total now jumps to 28 frames, which will help make the fleet more economical.

I forgot about the five 77Ws on order. 23 to 28 frames is easily enough for good fleet management.

Lightsaber
I cannot wait to get vaccinated to live again! Warning: I simulated that it takes 50%+ vaccinated to protect the vaccinated and 75%+ vaccinated to protect the vac-hesitant.
 
bmacleod
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RE: Air Canada In Talks To Lease 5 B777-200LRs

Wed May 30, 2012 4:06 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 64):
How is AC doing one 777 down? I'm curious if there has been any notable impact or has AC adapted well?

Probably same as a few years ago when a AC 77W was briefly out of service due to tail-area damage.

[Edited 2012-05-30 09:07:43]
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Cruiser
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RE: Air Canada In Talks To Lease 5 B777-200LRs

Wed May 30, 2012 5:12 pm

Quoting ANM604 (Reply 62):
Keep in mind, these five from AI are on top of the five 77W's that are currently on order with Boeing. So if AC takes all five 77W's, the fleet will be 17 77W's plus the six 772LR's, for a total of 23 frames. *If* the AI deal goes through, the total now jumps to 28 frames, which will help make the fleet more economical.

Considering there was only a 12-14 airplane fleet of 340's, this is pretty amazing. Gotta love the 777, and AC must be finding them very valuable!
Leahy on Per Seat Costs: "Have you seen the B-2 fly-by at almost US$1bn a copy? It has only 2 seats!"
 
chrisa330
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RE: Air Canada In Talks To Lease 5 B777-200LRs

Wed May 30, 2012 5:31 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 64):
How is AC doing one 777 down? I'm curious if there has been any notable impact or has AC adapted well?

Ops to LHR and FRA seem to be a complete cluster right now. Not sure if that's due to this incident, month end issues with crew maxing out hours, other mx issues, or just a perfect storm of all of the above.

[Edited 2012-05-30 10:51:16]
 
ANM604
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RE: Air Canada In Talks To Lease 5 B777-200LRs

Thu May 31, 2012 3:55 am

Quoting chrisa330 (Reply 67):
just a perfect storm of all of the above.

   This has not been a good couple weeks for AC.

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