787 Production Thread Part 4

LipeGIG · Thu May 31, 2012 1:42 am

This is a continuation of the previous thread (Part 3) which can be found here:

787 Production Thread Part 3 (by SA7700 Mar 25 2012 in Civil Aviation)

The previous one was closed as it become too long.
Please continue discussions here

Enjoy the website,

Felipe

PHX787 · Thu May 31, 2012 1:52 am

Continuing the discussion on the apparent AI drama:

Quote:
Quoting WarpSpeed (Reply 260):
With all the AI drama, should Boeing even bother?

You have to wonder. Boeing has spent resources getting airframes ready for delivery which could have gone on other airframes. LN 29 is ready to go other than this issue.

If they didn't deliver it, what would happen? Would someone else buy it?

Stitch · Thu May 31, 2012 2:00 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 1):
If they didn't deliver it, what would happen? Would someone else buy it?

Yes, Boeing could reconfigure them for delivery to another customer if they had to.

rotating14 · Thu May 31, 2012 3:41 am

I find the behavior of AI annoying regarding compensation now and looking between couch cushions to pay for the planes. Why didn't they ask for compensation when they couldn't fund the planes that were on the way. IMHO I believe Boeing should say " Hey, here's $xxx,xxx,xxx. Take it and be happy or we'll find buyers for your planes".

aeroblogger · Thu May 31, 2012 3:54 am

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 3):
I find the behavior of AI annoying regarding compensation now and looking between couch cushions to pay for the planes.

Why? AI and Boeing need to sort out their compensation issues before delivery takes place. So the issues are being sorted out now.

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 3):
Why didn't they ask for compensation when they couldn't fund the planes that were on the way.

AI has had financing for these aircraft lined up for 4 years now.

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 3):
MHO I believe Boeing should say " Hey, here's $xxx,xxx,xxx. Take it and be happy or we'll find buyers for your planes".

That would be insanely idiotic. It would probably result in every airline of India being an exclusive Airbus operator. And India is a huge market that Boeing wants its share in.

rotating14 · Thu May 31, 2012 6:34 am

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 4):

http://investment.contify.com/story/...eas-loans-bridge-financing-6337676

AI knew just as every carrier who has ordered the 787 that it would be late. Compensation is an order but why is it such an issue now when long before they were seeking funding they knew, I reiterate, that they would receive them late. Whey not ask for the compensation then instead of now?? Perhaps my last comment was off keel but you do see my point correct??

aeroblogger · Thu May 31, 2012 6:43 am

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 5):

AI knew just as every carrier who has ordered the 787 that it would be late. Compensation is an order but why is it such an issue now when long before they were seeking funding they knew, I reiterate, that they would receive them late. Whey not ask for the compensation then instead of now?? Perhaps my last comment was off keel but you do see my point correct??

Not really. Maybe I'm not understanding the phrasing?

It seems to me that what you are saying is that since AI knew it would be late, they should have negotiated for compensation then. However, AI did not know how late the 787 would be, and negotiating for compensation without knowing the delay period doesn't sounds particularly intelligent.

As for funding, AI's plan from the last 4 years was to take short term loans from SBI consortium banks, and then pay them back after sale-leasebacking the 787s. They have no need for compensation to fulfill this plan.

dynamicsguy · Thu May 31, 2012 6:49 am

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 5):
Whey not ask for the compensation then instead of now??

They've been demanding compensation for a long time. It isn't something which just came up.

That said, they have a contract which no doubt sets out compensation terms so it shouldn't really be in doubt.

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 4):
That would be insanely idiotic. It would probably result in every airline of India being an exclusive Airbus operator.

Or Air India could behave so poorly that no one will sell them airplanes. It goes both ways. The reported level of compensation they've demanded seems absurd.

sweair · Thu May 31, 2012 7:13 am

There was some talk of AI getting good prices and then selling these like Ryan Air did, it maybe some clause Boeing wants to put in this deal.

I am sure Ais slots would be popular if this deal never gets signed. 20 or so frames would have many takers, GE engines though.

817Dreamliiner · Thu May 31, 2012 7:15 am

Quoting sweair (Reply 8):
I am sure Ais slots would be popular if this deal never gets signed. 20 or so frames would have many takers, GE engines though.

And whats wrong if they have GE engines?

aeroblogger · Thu May 31, 2012 7:18 am

Quoting dynamicsguy (Reply 7):

Or Air India could behave so poorly that no one will sell them airplanes. It goes both ways. The reported level of compensation they've demanded seems absurd.

Fair enough.

Quoting sweair (Reply 8):
There was some talk of AI getting good prices and then selling these like Ryan Air did, it maybe some clause Boeing wants to put in this deal.

AI won't be selling these frames. The entire longhaul network is dependent on the lower capacity and fuel burn of these birds.

Quoting sweair (Reply 8):

I am sure Ais slots would be popular if this deal never gets signed. 20 or so frames would have many takers, GE engines though.

One side will blink eventually and this deal will go through. Regardless, it still seems to me that the delivery took place Tuesday.

sweair · Thu May 31, 2012 8:02 am

Maybe AI needs to get their finances in shape first of all..?

PHX787 · Thu May 31, 2012 7:05 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
Yes, Boeing could reconfigure them for delivery to another customer if they had to.

Would the customer code change? Lets say it would be reconfigured to go to UA, would the code change to 787-822?

Stitch · Thu May 31, 2012 7:08 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 12):
Would the customer code change? Lets say it would be reconfigured to go to UA, would the code change to 787-822?

Boeing no longer uses customer codes when it comes to the 787 family.

817Dreamliiner · Thu May 31, 2012 8:19 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 12):
Would the customer code change? Lets say it would be reconfigured to go to UA, would the code change to 787-822?

Quoting Stitch (Reply 13):
Boeing no longer uses customer codes when it comes to the 787 family.

Even if they had customer codes they wouldn't change, even so it wouldn't make much of a difference.

United787 · Thu May 31, 2012 8:53 pm

Thought I would bring this list over to the new thread, thank you as always to NYC777:

Delivered to Date, 11 aircraft:

L/N 8 - JA801A - 9/25/2011 - NH (ANA)
L/N 24 - JA802A - 10/13/2011 - NH (ANA)
L/N 31 - JA805A - 12/30/2011 - NH (ANA)
L/N 41 - JA807A - 1/12/2012 - NH (ANA)
L/N 9 - JA804A - 1/13/2012 - NH (ANA)
L/N 23 - JA822J - 3/25/2012 - JL (JAL)
L/N 33 - JA825J - 3/25/2012 - JL (JAL)
L/N 40 - JA806A - 3/29/2012 - NH (ANA)
L/N 42 - JA808A - 4/14/2012 - NH (ANA)
L/N 37 - JA826J - 4/25/2012 - JL (JAL)
L/N 38 - JA827J - 4/25/2012 - JL (JAL)

Next Up:
Shown on "All Things 787" as "Final Preps for Delivery" and have flown it's first flight:

L/N 29 - VT-AND - 5/??/2012 - AI (Air India)
L/N 47 - JA809A - 6/??/2012 - NH (ANA)
L/N 48 - JA810A - 6/??/2012 - NH (ANA)
L/N 51 - JA811A - 6/??/2012 - NH (ANA) Awaiting first flight
L/N 56 - JA812A - 6/??/2012 - NH (ANA) Awaiting first flight
L/N 46 - VT-ANI - Mid/2012 - AI (Air India) (Charleston)
L/N 35 - VT-ANH - TBD - AI (Air India)

NYC777 · Fri Jun 01, 2012 1:36 am

Quoting United787 (Reply 15):
Thought I would bring this list over to the new thread, thank you as always to NYC777:

Delivered to Date, 11 aircraft:

L/N 8 - JA801A - 9/25/2011 - NH (ANA)
L/N 24 - JA802A - 10/13/2011 - NH (ANA)
L/N 31 - JA805A - 12/30/2011 - NH (ANA)
L/N 41 - JA807A - 1/12/2012 - NH (ANA)
L/N 9 - JA804A - 1/13/2012 - NH (ANA)
L/N 23 - JA822J - 3/25/2012 - JL (JAL)
L/N 33 - JA825J - 3/25/2012 - JL (JAL)
L/N 40 - JA806A - 3/29/2012 - NH (ANA)
L/N 42 - JA808A - 4/14/2012 - NH (ANA)
L/N 37 - JA826J - 4/25/2012 - JL (JAL)
L/N 38 - JA827J - 4/25/2012 - JL (JAL)

Next Up:
Shown on "All Things 787" as "Final Preps for Delivery" and have flown it's first flight:

L/N 29 - VT-AND - 5/??/2012 - AI (Air India)
L/N 47 - JA809A - 6/??/2012 - NH (ANA)
L/N 48 - JA810A - 6/??/2012 - NH (ANA)
L/N 51 - JA811A - 6/??/2012 - NH (ANA) Awaiting first flight
L/N 56 - JA812A - 6/??/2012 - NH (ANA) Awaiting first flight
L/N 46 - VT-ANI - Mid/2012 - AI (Air India) (Charleston)
L/N 35 - VT-ANH - TBD - AI (Air India)

Don't forget LN 58, ZA461 for Qatar Airways. I think they'll deliver it next month unless Al Baker has another hissy fit.

WarpSpeed · Fri Jun 01, 2012 4:04 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 16):
Don't forget LN 58, ZA461 for Qatar Airways. I think they'll deliver it next month unless Al Baker has another hissy fit.

Do you think it will be a full fledged contractual delivery/fly away or "soft" delivery/release to allow it to be showcased at Farnborough? The article below suggests it will return to the "factory" after the airshow for installation of connectivity features. Can't imagine U-turn Al releasing full payment until the frame is 100% fitted-up for service. Perhaps such factory installation is at a third-party, after-market installer on QA's dime rather than at a Boeing facility.

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...87-to-debut-at-farnborough-371836/

PHX787 · Fri Jun 01, 2012 5:05 am

And it looks like the AI delivery is going to be postponed or cancelled

sweair · Fri Jun 01, 2012 8:12 am

If the AI deal fails, 27 frames need new takers, who would they be? Most of these are post LN20 and quite good compared to the first 19. GE engines would mean it is JAL and others to get early slots

Would any non customers try to grab some? As many has this all planned maybe early frames is of no interest right now.,

Carpethead · Fri Jun 01, 2012 8:37 am

Amazing that still to date only airlines in Japan have receipt of this bird.

BlueSky1976 · Fri Jun 01, 2012 8:39 am

Quoting sweair (Reply 19):
If the AI deal fails, 27 frames need new takers, who would they be?

I'm quite sure that Boeing won't need a new buyer for these, should AI deal fail miserably (which I doubt it will, BTW). Instead, they will be reallocated for delivery to the existing GENx-equipped customers, who are next in line for delivery.

jporterfi · Fri Jun 01, 2012 8:59 am

Quoting sweair (Reply 19):
Would any non customers try to grab some? As many has this all planned maybe early frames is of no interest right now.,

I can see DL going after these. I don't think they would mind having some extra 787s on hand when they start retiring their 767s. Also, AA might want to use these on routes from DFW or MIA to South America, or other places to free up 767s (if the route doesn't merit them), to redeploy the 767s domestically. Now, if only WN was interested in these for their new international service from HOU, but unfortunately that will never happen.

sweair · Fri Jun 01, 2012 9:18 am

There was an article about AI selling its very cheap frames to profit greatly like Ryan Air did with some 738s. But I am sure its in the contract with Boeing that this will not be allowed.

How many airlines are out there ready to snatch a good meal? Sort of like a scavenger opportunists..

WarpSpeed · Fri Jun 01, 2012 4:11 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 23):
sure its in the contract with Boeing that this will not be allowed.

Hard to say which provisions are in what is likely a highly negotiated contract. Hopefully Boeing has a right of first refusal should AI want to sell the frames.

Then again, its well known that Boeing was very aggressive with its pricing during many 787 sales campaigns. Maybe they were loose with contractual provisions as an enticement for customers to sign-up and did not include such restrictions.

Binding arbitration may be the best solution to this dispute as the last thing anyone will want is to see this matter litigated.

Quoting sweair (Reply 23):
here was an article about AI selling its very cheap frames to profit greatly like Ryan Air did with some 738s.

Interesting...If AI has no intention of putting their 787's in service but rather profiting from the high marketability of their frames, then I would suggest that AI is not entitled to much delay compensation.

Perhaps the solution is for (1) AI to do a sale-leaseback with Boeing. AI could preserve cash and Boeing can rack up the delivery while retaining the residual.

Or, (2) for India to buy more C-17's!!!!

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...-in-more-c-17s-says-boeing-372562/

[Edited 2012-06-01 09:26:39]

[Edited 2012-06-01 09:31:27]

Stitch · Fri Jun 01, 2012 4:29 pm

I'd like to recommend we keep the Air India discussion in the relevant thread - AI Wont Accept 787 Without $1 Billion Compensation (by AA7295 May 31 2012 in Civil Aviation) - and keep this one for production and deliveries.

sweair · Fri Jun 01, 2012 5:23 pm

OK back to topic then, there was zero deliveries in may 2012? Why the hold up with the ANA birds, 2 seemed to be ready to deliver?

NYC777 · Fri Jun 01, 2012 5:26 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 19):
If the AI deal fails, 27 frames need new takers, who would they be? Most of these are post LN20 and quite good compared to the first 19. GE engines would mean it is JAL and others to get early slots

Would any non customers try to grab some? As many has this all planned maybe early frames is of no interest right now.,

The problem is that the interiors would have to be switched out unless an existing customer doesn't mind taking the interior that AI had ordered. The interiors are considered Buyer Furnished Equipement (BFE) so that would go back to AI and new BFE would have to be installed. Not a huge deal but those planes wold be waiting on the flightline until the interiors are manufactured and delivered to Everett for installation.

NYC777 · Fri Jun 01, 2012 5:30 pm

Quoting WarpSpeed (Reply 17):
Do you think it will be a full fledged contractual delivery/fly away or "soft" delivery/release to allow it to be showcased at Farnborough? The article below suggests it will return to the "factory" after the airshow for installation of connectivity features. Can't imagine U-turn Al releasing full payment until the frame is 100% fitted-up for service. Perhaps such factory installation is at a third-party, after-market installer on QA's dime rather than at a Boeing facility.

It'll be a contractual delivery as Boeing wold not want to risk anything happening to it before delivery (i.e. accident on the way to FB before contractual delivery). That would leave them liable for the aircraft and since it's QR that wants to showcase it at FB they have to take possession before the show.

NYC777 · Fri Jun 01, 2012 5:35 pm

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 21):
Instead, they will be reallocated for delivery to the existing GENx-equipped customers, who are next in line for delivery.

Several....they could go to Qatar, Hainan, JAL among several airlines that have ordered GEnx engines. Boeing will not have any difficulty in placing these airplanes with customers. It will be AI loss.

NYC777 · Fri Jun 01, 2012 5:37 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 26):
OK back to topic then, there was zero deliveries in may 2012? Why the hold up with the ANA birds, 2 seemed to be ready to deliver?

Extra testing that was needed to be done, not sure what the testing was all about but looks like they're getting set to deliver soon. I think we'll see at least 4 787s delivered to ANA and one to QR this month. AI who knows!

sweair · Fri Jun 01, 2012 5:43 pm

Do you know how the very early frames are stored? How do they keep them from collecting moist etc? I´ve seen mold grow in very strange places, only needs a little bit of fuel to grow and prosper.

pygmalion · Fri Jun 01, 2012 7:18 pm

they are preserved prior to being stored and then are humidity controlled both in the tanks and the fuselage.

sweair · Fri Jun 01, 2012 8:33 pm

Quoting pygmalion (Reply 32):
they are preserved prior to being stored and then are humidity controlled both in the tanks and the fuselage.

Are they monitored too? All this must be a lot of extra work for Boeing?

tdscanuck · Fri Jun 01, 2012 9:25 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 27):
The problem is that the interiors would have to be switched out unless an existing customer doesn't mind taking the interior that AI had ordered.

Swapping an interior is relatively quick; something like a week if the parts are available.

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 27):
The interiors are considered Buyer Furnished Equipement (BFE) so that would go back to AI and new BFE would have to be installed. Not a huge deal but those planes wold be waiting on the flightline until the interiors are manufactured and delivered to Everett for installation.

I think the more likely scenario would be to take the BFE that's already been manufactured for a higher line number and move that over. You still have to manufacture another set eventually but there's no reason to wait for the "front of the line."

Quoting sweair (Reply 31):
Do you know how the very early frames are stored? How do they keep them from collecting moist etc?

Dessicant packs and seal 'em up.

Quoting sweair (Reply 31):
I´ve seen mold grow in very strange places, only needs a little bit of fuel to grow and prosper.

There's very little for them to grow on; airliners in service are far wetter than just sitting around Everett (interior surface condensation).

Tom.

PlanesNTrains · Sat Jun 02, 2012 1:05 am

Quoting WarpSpeed (Reply 17):
Do you think it will be a full fledged contractual delivery/fly away or "soft" delivery/release to allow it to be showcased at Farnborough?

Were I Boeing, I would make as little noise as possible. Why set yourself up for another show?

-Dave

WarpSpeed · Mon Jun 04, 2012 6:01 pm

Leeham.net has provide some analyst research on the duration of the required rework for the early deliveries. Very sobering, but I would expect the numbers to come down even amongst the line numbers preceding LN 66. For example, wouldn't LN 60 have much less rework than, say, LN 20 (and so on)?

http://leehamnews.wordpress.com/2012...13-months-of-rework-concludes-ubs/

sweair · Mon Jun 04, 2012 6:54 pm

Maybe there will be 7 delivered if the latest issue is resolved. 3 ANA, 3 AI and 1 Qatar. That would be a record month. I think there will be more deliveries the coming months, the later LNs have fewer jobs to be done and LN66+ go to flight line after FAL.

I think 4-6 frames a month for many months going forward. The LN7-LN30 will take a lot more rework, but by the end of the rework frames the FAL will be up to greater speed, compensating that some.

LN50-66 are the faster rework frames being. FAL will be at 5 frames a month by the end of this year? Not sure if all 5 will be delivered the following month? But say 4 at least

Spacepope · Mon Jun 04, 2012 7:12 pm

ZA506/JA809A/LN47 is back up testing today. Hopefully a delivery is imminent. Last flight of this airframe seems to have been over a week ago.

sweair · Mon Jun 04, 2012 7:15 pm

I read that the SOB fix wouldn't be needed after a certain block point, what LN would that be? It added about 700kg to the frame..

WarpSpeed · Mon Jun 04, 2012 7:24 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 37):
I think 4-6 frames a month for many months going forward.

Its hard to imagine given the glacial pace of the program deliveries to date, but something has to give. There will likely be a push for the June quarter-end, and as you note, the pace will likely quicken. So maybe, just maybe, we're seeing program maturity come into focus; especially with N. Charleston and, soon, the "surge" line ramping up.

Stitch · Mon Jun 04, 2012 7:29 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 39):
I read that the SOB fix wouldn't be needed after a certain block point, what LN would that be?

I believe it's already been incorporated into the shipsets coming into PAE and CHS.

Quoting sweair (Reply 39):
It added about 700kg to the frame.

Considering the issue was the SOB was too strong, I'd expect the final part would be lighter. As I recall, the in-situ fix was to cut out part of the structure.

PITingres · Mon Jun 04, 2012 8:20 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 39):
I read that the SOB fix wouldn't be needed after a certain block point, what LN would that be?

I believe it was LN20 and up that incorporated the fix without needing a retrofit.

WarpSpeed · Mon Jun 04, 2012 9:11 pm

This article discusses the SOB fixes and corresponding LN numbers for the who, what, when and where....

up to LN15 - SOB mods made in Everett
LN16-LN49 - mods made in Charleston
LN50 & after - no mods, received a new join design.

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...dy-mod-into-787-production-336828/

sweair · Mon Jun 04, 2012 9:15 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 41):
Considering the issue was the SOB was too strong, I'd expect the final part would be lighter. As I recall, the in-situ fix was to cut out part of the structure.

I think it was Aspire that wrote about the 700kg weight to fix the SOB issue, something about more titanium needed or something.

WarpSpeed · Mon Jun 04, 2012 11:24 pm

Quoting Spacepope (Reply 38):
ZA506/JA809A/LN47 is back up testing today. Hopefully a delivery is imminent.

Matt Cawby tweeted that this was to be a C1 flight. So, if all went well, we may see it deliver soon.

nomadd22 · Tue Jun 05, 2012 12:42 am

Quoting sweair (Reply 44):
I think it was Aspire that wrote about the 700kg weight to fix the SOB issue, something about more titanium needed or something.

I'd understood that the main fix was scalloping parts in certain places to redistribute the loads. I'm having a little trouble understanding that much extra structure.

scbriml · Tue Jun 05, 2012 9:35 am

Quoting carpethead (Reply 20):
Amazing that still to date only airlines in Japan have receipt of this bird.

Not really, given that Boeing has only managed 11 deliveries to date since September last year.

workhorse · Tue Jun 05, 2012 12:40 pm

I am probably asking a dumb question, but I tried hard looking through 787 production threads and couldn't find the answer: who is the next new operator to get the 787 (AI drama put aside)? Ethiopian? RAM? China Southern? Qatar? United? LAN?

[Edited 2012-06-05 05:53:25]

starrion · Tue Jun 05, 2012 1:52 pm

Qatar needs theirs soon. There are a bunch of JL and ANA birds prepping, but Qatar would need to be within the next few weeks.

Or the powers that be in India might figure out that they need the 787 more than Boeing needs them, and AI would be the third.

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