ferpe
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Tue Jul 10, 2012 1:25 pm

Quoting r2rho (Reply 99):
Yet another indicator that first flight in 2012 is simply impossible. (And I am no CSeries basher and really hope the program succeeds.)

On this one I for once hope I am wrong, I would love for Bombardier to prove me and all other armchair doubters wrong, and even if they don't make it 2012 I hope they fly early in 2013. Let me just add I don't think it has any material effect on the program if they don't, it is a 30 years marathon and you time out of the gate is not that important. It just reflects badly on the Bombardier management if it happens very much later, but I guess they would have had their reasons.
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smws
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Tue Jul 10, 2012 1:41 pm

Air Baltic has signed a letter of intent today to purchase 10 CS300 aircraft.

Full press release here: http://www.airbaltic.com/public/49780.html
 
Thenoflyzone
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Tue Jul 10, 2012 8:37 pm

Just as i thought. Looks like the CSeries will have a hard time making the 2012 deadline for first flight.

http://www.montrealgazette.com/busin...rst+flight+risk/6908074/story.html

Thenoflyzone
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ssteve
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Tue Jul 10, 2012 9:11 pm

I thought they've been saying consistently that there's no slack in the schedule for a few months now, but you're right in that floating "systems side, mostly the fly-by-wire" to the top of the list of concerns, it does sound like they see a bit more risk.
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Tue Jul 10, 2012 9:43 pm

The CSeries/Chinese fuse sections issue has been known, and worked on, by BBD for a couple of years...it's not something that has just cropped up. Just because it's just being reported now, doesn't mean it just happened now.
Nobody has actually been able to say that moving initial production around will cause any delays. In fact, if there is any delay, it seems it will most likely come from the controls, not the airframe.

The Aviation Week article which mentions the issue, also mentions that aernnova delivered its first wing box in January...not something one can do at the last minute. Obviously, this has been in the works for a long time...even if it wasn't the first plan.

Either it will be on time or late...unless we're placing bets, no reason to get really excited about it either way. We could start a pool with EIS and first flight as targets. The winner gets bragging rights and maybe a cookie. I suggest oatmeal/raisin but chocolate chip is also good.

[Edited 2012-07-10 14:47:06]
What the...?
 
ANM604
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Wed Jul 11, 2012 2:48 am

Quoting smws (Reply 101):
Air Baltic has signed a letter of intent today to purchase 10 CS300 aircraft.

Great news for BBD, two new customers in a couple days represents a significant vote of confidence in a plane many are doubting. If the "problems" at BBD were as bad as being "reported", I don't see why any airline would be placing any orders. Hopefully this shuts some of the naysayers up. Congrats to BBD!
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:26 am

Quoting ANM604 (Reply 105):
Great news for BBD, two new customers in a couple days represents a significant vote of confidence in a plane many are doubting.

Just to be clear, Bombardier sold 25 C-series at Farnborough? I just want to make sure I have the numbers correct. Please note I'm asking.

Lightsaber
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smws
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Wed Jul 11, 2012 7:48 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 106):
Just to be clear, Bombardier sold 25 C-series at Farnborough? I just want to make sure I have the numbers correct. Please note I'm asking.

Confirmed. 25 orders, 10 of which are to airBaltic and 15 to an undisclosed buyer.

Source: http://business.financialpost.com/20...rns-grow-about-first-flight-delay/

Quote:
If they are both firmed up, Bombardier’s CSeries backlog would reach 163 orders. Currently, it has 138 firm orders on the books, and another 214 options and commitments for the plane.


[Edited 2012-07-11 00:51:19]
 
ANM604
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 1:49 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 106):
Just to be clear, Bombardier sold 25 C-series at Farnborough?

Correct. This is more then I expected, and certainly good news for BBD!

Quoting smws (Reply 107):

   Now any speculation on who the undisclosed buyer is?
 
ElpinDAB
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 6:28 am

I'm excited that we should see the CS300 in AirBaltic colors. Sexy!

http://media.bombardiercms.com/cseries/medias/gallery/cs300CustomerImages/low/Airbaltic_CS300F_72DPI.jpg

Quoting ANM604 (Reply 108):
Now any speculation on who the undisclosed buyer is?

This would be at least the second undisclosed buyer, right? The previous undisclosed order was for 10 or so CS100ER's perhaps from the rumored 'Odyssey' startup. The latest order was for 5 CS100's and 10 CS300's. Very interesting. I wonder who the latest buyer is also.

Year-old Flight Global article on Odyssey: http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/fl...nalysis-a318-and-cseries-go-h.html
....from Paris '11.
 
Oykie
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 11:25 am

Quoting ANM604 (Reply 108):
Now any speculation on who the undisclosed buyer is?

The number is too low to be SAS, but their 28 736 are 14 years old and I expect that SK would not fly these 736 as long as the rest of the 737NG fleet. So in the time frame 2015-2018 I expect that SAS will announce a replacement. However, historically they have kept their short haul planes up to thirty years.

Quoting ElpinDAB (Reply 109):
I'm excited that we should see the CS300 in AirBaltic colors. Sexy!

  

I am happy for the continued orders for the CSeries! Much more interesting to follow up on a brand new airplane than upgrades.
Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
 
Oykie
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 11:42 am

Bombardier posted this picture one hour a go. Is this a confirmation of AirAsia's commitment to the CSeries?

http://ow.ly/i/Lpmg

If AirAsia buy's a CSeries, then that will be a real breakthrough!
Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
 
smws
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 11:44 am

Quoting oykie (Reply 111):
Bombardier posted this picture one hour a go. Is this a confirmation of AirAsia's commitment to the CSeries?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...dier-airasia-idUSLNE86800I20120709

I think the talks are still ongoing.
 
Oykie
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 3:23 pm

Quoting smws (Reply 112):

I think the talks are still ongoing

So it seems. Will the 160 seats require another emergency exit over the wing like the A319 for EasyJet?
Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
 
planemaker
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 5:17 pm

Quoting oykie (Reply 113):
So it seems. Will the 160 seats require another emergency exit over the wing like the A319 for EasyJet?

Factoring emergency window location has an impact on seat placement and total capacity.

155 seats looks possible but I think that it is problematic to reach 160 seats even at 28" pitch with "slim line seats" (3 additional rows over the "standard" high density configuration). As you can see below, at the "standard" high density configuration of 30" pitch capacity is 145 seats (and the seats are already quite "slim" though not as thin as the "slim line.")

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JoeCanuck
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 8:05 pm

If Air Asia wants more seats and is willing to order, I think BBd would be more than happy to make a CS 500.
What the...?
 
planemaker
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 10:23 pm

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 115):
If Air Asia wants more seats and is willing to order, I think BBd would be more than happy to make a CS 500.

A CS500 would throw the economics off... the whole point is to squeeze 160 pax into the CS300... not add cost, weight and risk with a CS500 derivative.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
davs5032
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Fri Jul 13, 2012 12:19 am

Quoting planemaker (Reply 116):
A CS500 would throw the economics off... the whole point is to squeeze 160 pax into the CS300... not add cost, weight and risk with a CS500 derivative.

For AirAsia it might, but that's assuming that they are interested in a plane that seats no more than 160 at max capacity. However the economics generally for the hypothetical -500 would seem to be fine...the MD80 performed quite well at a very similar size, and continues to do so. Personally, I think it's only a matter of when, not if the -500 is launched.
 
planemaker
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Fri Jul 13, 2012 2:34 am

Quoting davs5032 (Reply 117):
For AirAsia it might, but that's assuming that they are interested in a plane that seats no more than 160 at max capacity.

Tony Fernandes has stated that he is only interested in a 160-seat CS300 for a couple of reasons, one of them is that he has an existing order for 200 NEOs.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Fri Jul 13, 2012 4:42 am

Quoting smws (Reply 107):
Confirmed. 25 orders, 10 of which are to airBaltic and 15 to an undisclosed buyer.

Source: http://business.financialpost.com/20...elay/

Thank you. This is great news!   

Quoting ANM604 (Reply 108):
This is more then I expected, and certainly good news for BBD!

Yes, 25 more than I expected.  
Quoting oykie (Reply 111):
Is this a confirmation of AirAsia's commitment to the CSeries?

   It would be worth it for Bombardier to make 500 of those models for different potential customers if they sold one CS300 much less 50 more.   

Basic model: $50 to $150 (depends on quantity)
Custom Paint job, maybe $150 (depends on where the paint is applied, if done in Canada... much pricier, I'm assuming a low cost manufacturing nation).

So 500*$300=150,000. Cheap versus selling *one* CS300.

I hope Bombardier keeps making the models. However, not as cool as a Lego T1000.  
Quoting planemaker (Reply 114):
155 seats looks possible but I think that it is problematic to reach 160 seats even at 28" pitch with "slim line seats" (3 additional rows over the "standard" high density configuration).

A challenge, but looking at the room, I see one row in front of the wing exits one one behind being no issue. Two behind would be the challenge...

Question: Can Bombardier evacuate 160 through the current door layout? I guess than can test!   

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planemaker
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Fri Jul 13, 2012 5:29 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 119):
A challenge, but looking at the room, I see one row in front of the wing exits one one behind being no issue. Two behind would be the challenge...

Looking again I don't see how they can squeeze in a 3rd extra row when allowance has to be made for the wing exits. So I think that they have to "change" something if anything does come to pass.

There is a bit more room on the starboard side since the front service door is further forward than the entrance door so no issue there. However, the port side will be a tight fit to even squeeze in another row forward of the wing exits.

And then, as you point out, is the evacuation test.

I read that Tony Fernandes "was being coy" when pressed today about the CSeries, especially after confirming that he is close to finalizing an order for 50 A320s + 50 options within two months and is also interested in some more A330s.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Fri Jul 13, 2012 5:49 am

I wonder if this might be a good trial for the Thompson seats. They would probably allow 160 seats.
What the...?
 
planemaker
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Fri Jul 13, 2012 6:25 am

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 121):
I wonder if this might be a good trial for the Thompson seats. They would probably allow 160 seats.

Do you mean the "Cosy Suite"...

.



The aisle would be narrower but the "Cosy Suite" would certainly allow for 160+ seats... though I don't think that it would pass the evacuation test.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Fri Jul 13, 2012 6:34 am

I'm really surprised that nobody has done even a trial aircraft with the cozy suite. They seem like a bloody good idea on the surface. Somebody should really outfit even just one aircraft with these and get some real time passenger feedback.

Just having your own headrest on an aisle seat would make it a winner for me on a long haul.
What the...?
 
smws
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Fri Jul 13, 2012 7:08 am

Quote:
Until now, the larger, CS300 version of the Bombardier
[quote=JoeCanuck,reply=123]I'm really surprised that nobody has done even a trial aircraft with the cozy suite. They seem like a bloody good idea on the surface. Somebody should really outfit even just one aircraft with these and get some real time passenger feedback.

I do agree with that. But carriers seem to be more interested in trying to figure out how to have people "leaning" or standing in the plane instead of adding capacity and improving comfort.

The basic principle of the cozy suite seats is in use in public transportation vehicles all over, where one seat is simply a few inches ahead of the seat next to it. They are indeed comfier than the regular, side-by-side seats.
 
Oykie
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Fri Jul 13, 2012 9:44 am

Quoting planemaker (Reply 114):
155 seats looks possible but I think that it is problematic to reach 160 seats even at 28" pitch with "slim line seats" (3 additional rows over the "standard" high density configuration). As you can see below, at the "standard" high density configuration of 30" pitch capacity is 145 seats (and the seats are already quite "slim" though not as thin as the "slim line.")

I was initially conerned about the evacuation and did not even start to look at how to get as many seat rows into the plane. It will be tight. I guess the CSeries is too narrow for a six across seating? Like the good old Avro allowed either 5 comfortable seats or 6 tiny, tiny seats.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 119):
So 500*$300=150,000. Cheap versus selling *one* CS300.

Good point! Probably a low cost developed version. I do believe however that they have not made this to all interested parties?

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 119):
I hope Bombardier keeps making the models. However, not as cool as a Lego T1000.

   Now that was really cool!  
Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
 
r2rho
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Fri Jul 13, 2012 11:15 am

The AirAsia deal, if it happens, would be a huge endorsement of the CS300 versus its competitor the A319NEO. After all, with 200 NEOs on order, why would you introduce a new type and try to squeeze in 160 pax (for which I see no possibility), when you can do it perfectly well with an A319NEO and have fleet commonality? It would be a very strong indication / confirmation that the CS300 is better than the A319NEO...
 
voodoo
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Fri Jul 13, 2012 1:09 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 119):
   It would be worth it for Bombardier to make 500 of those models for different potential customers if they sold one CS300 much less 50 more.   

Yeah, sadly a model's existence does not always relate to any immediate order:
` Yeaah! Baade 152! Trabi of the Sky! '
 
planemaker
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Fri Jul 13, 2012 4:51 pm

Quoting r2rho (Reply 126):
After all, with 200 NEOs on order, why would you introduce a new type and try to squeeze in 160 pax (for which I see no possibility), when you can do it perfectly well with an A319NEO and have fleet commonality? It would be a very strong indication / confirmation that the CS300 is better than the A319NEO...

I agree, that it looks impossible to squeeze in 160-seats (without structural modifications).

The A319 would not be in the "running" for this hypothetical order because, as Tony Fernandes stated, "The advantage is that the CSeries can get into a lot of airports to which we currently do not have access." It is similar to Swiss and their requirement to fly into London City and Lugano, for example, with the CS100 yet are going to be ordering A320s shortly.

The better operating economics of the CS300 vs A319 is not in doubt... it is the entire package that puts any CS300 order in doubt. While I do think that Fernandes is conceptually interested in a 160-seater CS300 I also think that he is doing a bit of gamesmanship with Airbus over his current negotiations for an additional 50 A320s + 50 options (+ any additional A330s that he says he is interested in). Nothing like keeping your sole source supplier on their toes.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
challengerdan
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Fri Jul 13, 2012 5:57 pm

If you look at the embraer type certificate, there are restrictions as to how the seats will be distributed fore and aft of the overwing exits if you are going to use the maximum number of seats on the 190/195. If bombardier tests the config they might come with a similar result, although it will be a tight fit.
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JoeCanuck
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Fri Jul 13, 2012 6:09 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 128):

I think Air Asia is already getting just about as much of a discount as is possible with Airbus. I doubt they can afford to move much more on price and their hands are probably tied on deliver times so what more can they do? Their ace in the hole in this thing is the economics of commonality. I think the CEO of LH said it takes a fleet of 20 planes to make introducing a new type worth the expense and effort and Air Asia seems to like ordering big so commonality might not be a real deal breaker.

Besides, by ordering another type it doesn't rule out more airbii in the future. Their position is undoubtedly quite safe with Air Asia.

Fernandes will probably go purely with the economics...like any smart CEO would. If he really is looking for planes in this segment and the race is between the 319 and CSeries and it's a straight head to head and the order is for 30 or more planes, I think the CSeries has a real chance...if there actually will be an order.

I think this one will wait until at least after first flight for the CSeries...though I didn't expect any orders at Farnborough.
What the...?
 
KDAYflyer
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Fri Jul 13, 2012 6:13 pm

Quoting BE77 (Reply 13):
I can so easily see the value in this mock up. Excellent tool I am sure. I am in a completely different industry, and work in 3D modeling software all the time. But, when it comes time to explain things and to get people's heads wrapped around it, there are times where a physical model is just so useful

Kinda makes me wish Boeing had tried this on the 787 program. I dont know of that was even possible, but hey ........
 
planemaker
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Fri Jul 13, 2012 8:55 pm

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 130):
I think Air Asia is already getting just about as much of a discount as is possible with Airbus. I doubt they can afford to move much more on price and their hands are probably tied on deliver times so what more can they do?

Part of the package is more than just purchase price per unit, of course. There are many, many "line items" to negotiate on than just price... which for this current negotiation for 50 OEOs + 50 options is all in play (including delivery - BTW, Air Asia will be the first non-China customer of Tianjin A320s).

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 130):
Besides, by ordering another type it doesn't rule out more airbii in the future. Their position is undoubtedly quite safe with Air Asia.

Fernandes already has a firm order for 200 NEOs... plus the OEOs he has yet to receive... plus the negotiations for 50+50 he is conducting... so, other than more A330s, he isn't going to be ordering more Airbii for quite a while.

I look at the "totality" of the picture. It is not just about Fernandes... but also Leahy (and CFM) smothering any attempt by the CSeries to get traction anywhere. It is far cheaper to "cut them off at the pass" with any number of inducements to customers from the Airbus (CFM) "quiver" to neutralize the CSeries except in cases of operational requirements like London City, Lugano, etc.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 130):
I think this one will wait until at least after first flight for the CSeries...though I didn't expect any orders at Farnborough.

Aside from the issues already highlighted, this obviously isn't any rush on Fernades' part since he talks of 2016 delivery.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Fri Jul 13, 2012 11:25 pm

Quoting voodoo (Reply 127):
Yeah, sadly a model's existence does not always relate to any immediate order:

   Keep making them. If *one* CS100/CS300 sells, it was worth the added cost for hundreds of different airline models.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 132):
I look at the "totality" of the picture. It is not just about Fernandes... but also Leahy (and CFM) smothering any attempt by the CSeries to get traction anywhere. It is far cheaper to "cut them off at the pass" with any number of inducements to customers from the Airbus (CFM) "quiver" to neutralize the CSeries

Not without limit. The C-series will have an operational cost advantage unless Bombardier messes up. But my rumor mill insists there is enough margin for performance to do well.

Its too late to keep the C-series from entering production. While small, the added 25 more orders push the business case to 'go forward.'

Quoting planemaker (Reply 132):
this obviously isn't any rush on Fernades' part since he talks of 2016 delivery.

Yea... he only has two years of golf and martinis until he has to make a decision.  
Quoting challengerdan (Reply 129):
If bombardier tests the config they might come with a similar result, although it will be a tight fit.

If there is even a chance of an order, Bombardier will test the 160 seats. Then everyone who wants may put in fewer.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 130):
I think this one will wait until at least after first flight for the CSeries...though I didn't expect any orders at Farnborough.

On that we agree, both points, 100%.   

Lightsaber
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BD500
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Sat Jul 14, 2012 12:47 am

Quoting voodoo (Reply 127):
Yeah, sadly a model's existence does not always relate to any immediate order:

We still don't know the name of 3 or 4 airlines (One has been un-officially announced as Odyssey), it would be very funny that after all Gulf Air is among them
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Sat Jul 14, 2012 1:50 am

Quoting planemaker (Reply 132):
I look at the "totality" of the picture. It is not just about Fernandes... but also Leahy (and CFM) smothering any attempt by the CSeries to get traction anywhere. It is far cheaper to "cut them off at the pass" with any number of inducements to customers from the Airbus (CFM) "quiver" to neutralize the CSeries except in cases of operational requirements like London City, Lugano, etc.



The CSeries already has traction and there's not much more Airbus or CFM can offer Air Asia to sweeten the pot...the 319NEO will be the last built and it still won't beat the economics of the CS300 and the CSeries will be available sooner. Other customers won't be thrilled if Airbus cuts new orders in front of existing ones.

When you buy that many planes all at once, you pretty much get to set the terms...I'm guessing they didn't leave much left in the pot by the time they signed.

Besides, what pass could they possibly cut off? They've shot most of their bolts with their previous deals. Fernandes is well aware of the Airbus products and he knows exactly what he can squeeze from Airbus and CFM. Though he is insisting the negotiations are more than a ploy to get further discounts from Airbus, what is said in public often doesn't reflect what happening behind closed doors.

Air Asia obviously doesn't want 319OEO's or he wouldn't be talking to BBD at all. If there is an actual order in the offing, it will be between the NEO and the CSeries. For a big enough order, he'll be able to squeeze Bombardier maybe even harder than he did Airbus.

Still, an order may never happen at all and all this web space will have been wasted for nothing.
What the...?
 
kaneporta1
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Sat Jul 14, 2012 1:53 am

Looking at the image Planemaker posted and doing a bit of rough math:

29 rows at 30 inch = 870 inches of cabin length for seating.

870 divided by 28 inches (pitch of those ultra slim seats) = 31 rows = 155 seats.

If Bombardier can remove the front bulkhead and squeeze another row there (like easyJet have on their A319s) then 160 seats could be possible without any major modifications.
I'd rather die peacefully in my sleep, like my grandfather, not terrified and screaming, like his passengers
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Sat Jul 14, 2012 3:33 am

True...ditch the bulkhead for a curtain, and that's another row of 3...stuff some babies in the overheads...maybe some hammocks...160, piece of cake.
What the...?
 
planemaker
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Sat Jul 14, 2012 6:07 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 133):
The C-series will have an operational cost advantage unless Bombardier messes up. But my rumor mill insists there is enough margin for performance to do well.

My position has always been that the CSeries will be good aircraft with cash operating cost advantages (the % depending upon where operated, when and by whom).

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 133):
Its too late to keep the C-series from entering production. While small, the added 25 more orders push the business case to 'go forward.'

Unless something major crops up there is no doubt that it is going into production... and A & B know that. However, what they will continue doing (certainly Leahy) is to keep it at the margins of orders... like the 10 frame "LOI" from Air Baltic (which does fit into BBD's "inch deep, mile wide" latest market strategy). In any case, as I mentioned earlier, I think that there might be some trouble closing this sale because of Air Baltic's troubled finances. And the other UFO "order" is conditional. If you look at the CSeries' firm orders, only the Swiss, Korean, Braathens, Privat and LCI orders are truly "solid"... ~50% of firm orders.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 133):
Yea... he only has two years of golf and martinis until he has to make a decision.

And following his F1 team around!  
Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 135):
The CSeries already has traction and there's not much more Airbus or CFM can offer Air Asia to sweeten the pot...the 319NEO will be the last built and it still won't beat the economics of the CS300 and the CSeries will be available sooner. Other customers won't be thrilled if Airbus cuts new orders in front of existing ones.

I wasn't speaking in this case specifically about Air Asia but all campaigns where there is no operational exclusions of Airbus (such as in London City, Lugano... and, according to Fernandes, the reason for this "hypothetical" Air Asia potential).

There are indeed lots of things that Airbus and CFM and GECAS can do to make the A319NEO come out ahead. The "only" thing that the CSeries has is a COC advantage that the % is yet to be ascertained. And whatever that difference ends up being is easily surmountable by Airbus and CFM and GECAS. You just have to look at what they pulled off with Frontier as an indication.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 135):
If there is an actual order in the offing, it will be between the NEO and the CSeries.

Unless he is just using the Cseries as bait the A319NEO is not in contention because it can't "access" the airports.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 135):
Still, an order may never happen at all and all this web space will have been wasted for nothing.

I don't think an order is possible. However, if Fernandes really does want to "get into a lot of airports to which we currently do not have access," if I was BBD I would ask him about launching the Q400X.  
Quoting kaneporta1 (Reply 136):
If Bombardier can remove the front bulkhead and squeeze another row there (like easyJet have on their A319s) then 160 seats could be possible without any major modifications.

As I highlighted earlier, perhaps just possibly squeeze in another row on the starboard side but not on the port side (because the service door is skewed forward of the entrance door). And it is further complicated by the fixed position of the over wing exit that requires 20" exit pathway. I don't think more than 155 is feasible without structural changes... and as Lightsaber brought up, an evacuation test with 160 would be interesting.
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TSS
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Sat Jul 14, 2012 7:25 am

Quoting kaneporta1 (Reply 136):
Looking at the image Planemaker posted and doing a bit of rough math:

29 rows at 30 inch = 870 inches of cabin length for seating.

870 divided by 28 inches (pitch of those ultra slim seats) = 31 rows = 155 seats.

If Bombardier can remove the front bulkhead and squeeze another row there (like easyJet have on their A319s) then 160 seats could be possible without any major modifications.

Or, do 30 rows at 29 inches for a total of 150 seats. Would the extra profit from ten additional pax (assuming 100% full flights, of course) cover the added cost of an another F/A? Or is the "1 F/A required per 50 pax" rule a US-only thing?
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JoeCanuck
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Sat Jul 14, 2012 10:13 am

Quoting planemaker (Reply 138):

?
Of course an order is possible...why talk about it if there is no possibility? More importantly , why announce you're talking? It doesn't do a bit of good to play one maker against another if you're not going to buy anything at all.

Actually, there may be more advantages for the CSeries. We have no idea what price they're asking but it's very doubtful the 319 would be cheaper to purchase than the CS300. It also has the weight of Pratt behind them and while not as big as Airbus, Bombardier isn't exactly chicken feed. They are a profitable company with billions in orders on the books. They are the number one bizjet maker, the number one train maker and the number 3 civilian aircraft maker. They make small planes but they are quite a big deal.

Airbus can only drop the price so low before an order becomes a loss and a loss on a 100 or so planes is a heck of a loss. Besides, they really don't have a dog in this fight. The OEO definitely gets pantsed by the CSeries and the 319 neo is a very long way off. BBD can also afford to drop the price on the CSeries and they probably have more room to move...especially for a big order. Just because they haven't played the price war before, doesn't mean they can't or aren't prepared to.

Ultimately, Airbus can't protect every market because like it or not, there are things their planes can't do which the CSeries can. It takes time to build planes and the CSeries is probably available sooner.

GECAS and Airbus can only do so much if their plane doesn't perform as well as the CSeries. They aren't omnipotent. Can they offer early slots? Maybe some but not a lot. Unless they plan on passing out envelopes of cash, their bags of tricks do have limits. Considering a plane is a multi decade investment, it doesn't take long for any performance advantage to add up...no matter what magic the lessors conjure up.

I'm sure we'll hear the tired refrain of how different the industry is now but Airbus is sounding a lot like Boeing did before the 320 started kicking butt.
What the...?
 
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Sun Jul 15, 2012 7:53 pm

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 140):
Just because they haven't played the price war before, doesn't mean they can't or aren't prepared to.

That could be. Note: I expect the LH/LZ order was a 'price war.'   For this large of an order, it is well worth it for Bombardier to play the price war game.

I think this order could be analogous to the U2 order for the A319. It was Boeing's order to win, but Airbus brought in their 'A game.' Is Airbus bringing their 'A game?'

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 140):
I'm sure we'll hear the tired refrain of how different the industry is now but Airbus is sounding a lot like Boeing did before the 320 started kicking butt.

   I only hope for the C-series or any Pratt powered aircraft sells well.   

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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Sun Jul 15, 2012 9:20 pm

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 140):
f course an order is possible...why talk about it if there is no possibility?

Of course an order is theoretically possible... just like the NW order, and the UA order, and the QR order, etc., airlines talk with OEMs all the time and vice versa.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 140):
We have no idea what price they're asking but it's very doubtful the 319 would be cheaper to purchase than the CS300.

Airbus can beat the CSeries price if they choose to. Not only will Airbus have the economies of scale of 42 frames/month (and with Alabama even more if they want) but they can play many more cards than BBD can in any contract negotiation.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 140):
Bombardier isn't exactly chicken feed. They are a profitable company with billions in orders on the books. They are the number one bizjet maker, the number one train maker and the number 3 civilian aircraft maker. They make small planes but they are quite a big deal.

The success of the CSeries has nothing to do with the other parts of BBD (or their other aircraft programs). The CSeries has to succeed on its own providing an acceptable ROI to shareholders.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 140):
Airbus can only drop the price so low before an order becomes a loss and a loss on a 100 or so planes is a heck of a loss.

Aside from simple purchase price that Airbus can beat the CSeries on, Airbus (and CFM/GECAS) has so many additional cards to play to beat the CSeries on. And if it ever descended to a war of attrition, the impact on Airbus is minimal compared to the CSeries.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 140):
BBD can also afford to drop the price on the CSeries and they probably have more room to move...especially for a big order. Just because they haven't played the price war before, doesn't mean they can't or aren't prepared to.

BBD doesn't have more room to move... at all. A major reason that BBD hasn't given significant discounts is that they have to produce an ROI with low order numbers and a $3.6 (and growing) cost to recover.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 140):
Ultimately, Airbus can't protect every market because like it or not, there are things their planes can't do which the CSeries can. It takes time to build planes and the CSeries is probably available sooner.

No one is saying they will or need to protect every market... I have already laid out where the CSeries can go where Airbus can't. But it isn't just Airbus that BBD is up against but Boeing as well (and at the smaller end EMB) and they will let BBD win some small sales (but not at a price that BBD wants). As to availability, it really depends on quantity and delivery rate. The "it takes time to build planes" applies more to the CSeries with their low production rate. When Airbus will be producing close to 500 NBs per year there is more delivery flexibility and some stop gap measures not available to the CSeries.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 140):
GECAS and Airbus can only do so much if their plane doesn't perform as well as the CSeries. They aren't omnipotent. Can they offer early slots? Maybe some but not a lot. Unless they plan on passing out envelopes of cash, their bags of tricks do have limits.

Again, you just have to look at the Frontier deal as an indication of what Airbus/CFM/GECAS can pull off. The industry doesn't abide by the Marquess of Queensberry Rules. They don't need to pass out any envelopes because they have so many ways to make the value proposition positive... price, financing/leasing, parts, rotables, warranties, training, fleet bundling, residual values, etc, etc, etc. the list goes on and on.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 140):
Considering a plane is a multi decade investment, it doesn't take long for any performance advantage to add up...no matter what magic the lessors conjure up.

If that were the case the A320 wouldn't win any orders over the 738.... or DL wouldn't be about to start flying the 717, the E-Jets wouldn't win any orders over the CRJ, etc, etc, etc. Many more things than just a COC advantage goes into purchase decisions.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 141):
Is Airbus bringing their 'A game?'

As Scott Hamilton recently commented...

Quote:
The news that BBD is talking with AirAsia about a 160-seat CS300 (28 inch pitch with new slim line seats) was a surprise. We'll wait with great interest whether the airline's CEO, Tony Fernandes will be enticed away from his exclusivity with Airbus for the A320/320neo. If Airbus' John Leahy was motivated to "kill" the CSeries before, these talks are sure to start a war--and Leahy takes no prisoners.
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Mon Jul 16, 2012 1:36 am

Quoting planemaker (Reply 142):
Airbus can beat the CSeries price if they choose to

Not necessarily. If they drop the price so low as to take a loss, then they risk anti trust litigation, no matter where they sell their planes. Since they do business in the States, they are subject to their anti trust legislation and I'm pretty sure Boeing would also jump all over them if they are selling at a loss. There are absolute limits how low you can go...and some of them are legal, not economic.

Things still cost money to make regardless of the economics of scale. One can also bet that Air Asia already got Airbus pretty close to the bottom with their order...There are also economics of scale which work for the customer...and those work against the manufacturer.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 142):
The success of the CSeries has nothing to do with the other parts of BBD (or their other aircraft programs). The CSeries has to succeed on its own providing an acceptable ROI to shareholders.

That's just wrong. BBD airliner money isn't completely isolated from other money. The CSeries does have to succeed...but it doesn't have to make a profit immediately. Break even may be years down the road and it will take longer if they don't get orders...so BBD will invest whatever money it has to, derived from any part of the company. Bombardier profits or losses and the stock price are based on the health of the company as a whole...not just one part. That's why the stock price moves with anything significant involving any part of the company...trains, bizjets or airliners.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 142):
Aside from simple purchase price that Airbus can beat the CSeries on, Airbus (and CFM/GECAS) has so many additional cards to play to beat the CSeries on. And if it ever descended to a war of attrition, the impact on Airbus is minimal compared to the CSeries.

Airbus can't kill the CSeries. If they could have killed the CSeries...it would be dead...right now. They tried PR stunts and undercutting and whatever behind the scenes machinations available to them and the CSeries still gets sales. The NEO was supposed to be the final nail in the coffin...but it's still ticking.

There are limits to even the awesome power of Airbus and GECAS. Regardless of what they can do...it obviously doesn't work all the time. GECAS could have pushed Airbus, Boeing or Emb as alternatives to the CSeries. Their power hasn't worked against all of the airlines who chose Pratt on their NEO's instead of CFM. Nor did it work when some airlines chose the V2500 over the CFM. Some airlines even ignored the might of GECAS when the chose RR over GE on the 787.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 142):
BBD doesn't have more room to move... at all.

Nonsense. You have no idea how much BBD can discount. Just because they haven't made huge bargains before, doesn't mean they can't. Even Udvar-Hazy thinks they should...which means he thinks they can.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 142):
they will let BBD win some small sales (but not at a price that BBD wants).

They will 'let' BBD win some orders? Wow...that's some awesome koolaid you're drinking. Let? No chance BBD won because they had the best product at the best price? The only won because they were allowed to by their competition?
That's just plain, (or plane), goofy.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 142):
Again, you just have to look at the Frontier deal as an indication of what Airbus/CFM/GECAS can pull off

Indeed...Frontier is owned by Republic and they are buying significant numbers of the CSeries...and have not sold them, so presumably they want them. In fact, while Bedford has expressed concerns about slow sales of the CSeries, he has repeatedly reiterated that he will buy the planes.

Leahy may try to take no prisoners but he doesn't win every battle.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 142):
If that were the case the A320 wouldn't win any orders over the 738.... or DL wouldn't be about to start flying the 717, the E-Jets wouldn't win any orders over the CRJ, etc, etc, etc. Many more things than just a COC advantage goes into purchase decisi

That's just silly. The 320 has some advantages over the 737, the 717 has its own advantages, and the CSeries has its advantages. If it weren't true, there would only be one plane doing everything. Not all advantages are performance related but why else buy MAX's and NEO's if not for the performance advantages? I'm sure they could get a much better deal on the current models. The MAX and the NEO are being created 100% because of cost of operations improvements.

Besides, nobody actually said this was anything more than a potential, future order...so what's the big deal?
What the...?
 
planemaker
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Mon Jul 16, 2012 8:49 am

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 143):
Not necessarily.

Absolutely... and not just due to the annual ~500 versus 160 (if they even get there by 2016) economies of scale... but also due to the long list of negotiating advantages that Airbus holds.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 143):
That's just wrong.

No it isn't. Aircraft programs do not operate on a continue to "invest whatever money it has to, derived from any part of the company" until the program might achieve an acceptable ROI. Even the 787 with its delay and huge costs overruns had program accounting worked out by EIS (it also had close to 900 orders by first flight).

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 143):
They tried PR stunts and undercutting and whatever behind the scenes machinations available to them and the CSeries still gets sales.

What sales... an "LOI" for 10 frames from an airline that was bankrupt in November and a "conditional" order from an "unidentified airline"? Furthermore, Air Baltic doesn't have any A320s.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 143):
GECAS could have pushed Airbus, Boeing or Emb as alternatives to the CSeries.

And they knocked the CSeries from Frontier. Now there is ~50% of the CS300 backlog without an airline.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 143):
Even Udvar-Hazy thinks they should...which means he thinks they can.

He actually said... “They’ve got to make some sacrifices short term for the long-term benefit of the program”. “I think they really need to be aggressive … Without that, the program is not going to get the [momentum] it needs to be competitive with Boeing and Airbus.” "They've got to build the customer base. Even if it means sacrificing pricing, because if they don't, they won't have a successful programme." That BBD can't do a deal with someone of SUH's stature in the industry, and considering that BBD proclaimed that 50% of CSeries sales would be to lessors (and it ain't happening), shows that they don't have flexibility on pricing.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 143):
Indeed...Frontier is owned by Republic and they are buying significant numbers of the CSeries...and have not sold them, so presumably they want them. In fact, while Bedford has expressed concerns about slow sales of the CSeries, he has repeatedly reiterated that he will buy the planes.

This has been discussed already... many times. Frontier is NOT flying the CSeries and Republic has no way to fly the CSeries without starting a new airline.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 143):
That's just silly.

You said... "Considering a plane is a multi decade investment, it doesn't take long for any performance advantage to add up...no matter what magic the lessors conjure up." In your reply you contradict that.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 143):
Besides, nobody actually said this was anything more than a potential, future order...so what's the big deal?

Exactly... what is the big deal?
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
queb
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RE: Bombardier CSeries Update

Tue Jul 24, 2012 10:40 am

Aspire Aviation about the CSeries :

Given the CSeries’ advantage over its less optimised competitors, there is little shock that it has outsold all competing types. Already, numerous airlines have expressed interest in the CSeries, which in addition to double-digit maintenance cost reductions, is also priced more cheaply by 10%-30% versus Boeing and Airbus’ re-engined products.

http://www.aspireaviation.com/2012/0...t-obstacle-for-bombardier-cseries/

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