BA LGW Fleet Question.

mikey72 · Mon Jul 02, 2012 9:21 am

I was thinking (oh no I hear you all cry) with the A380's and 787's looming on the horzion is there a possiblity that the LGW long-haul fleet might go all 744.

In other words a simple swap with LHR for the 777's ?

With the exception of BDA (which I think may go to LHR anyway) all the other routes like MCO, BGI etc can fill a 744 and have done so in the past.

Just seems to me to make sense to capitalize on the bucket and spaders (don't flame me - nothing wrong with them) and what with the new LGW - LAS service commencing...........

(you could put a billboard up on the M23 and fill that one everyday...Don't go to work...go to Vegas....Oh alright then !!)

APYu · Mon Jul 02, 2012 9:26 am

No chance in my opinion, while those routes can fill up a 744 during the school holidays, there are many other times of the year when you'd be flogging seats for peanuts (as Virgin do for lots of the year - an airline with a lower cost base).

772 works perfectly, and allows then to charge ridiculous fares during those peak times.

CHRISBA777ER · Mon Jul 02, 2012 9:30 am

Hmmm. LGW-LAS - nice. Didnt know about that.

I can see it going the other way actually and LGW getting some of the dusked LHR-long-ahul configured 763ERs when they start to be replaced by 788s ex-LHR. They would be great for some of the longer thiner routes that the 772ER is too big for and enable them to do some more Caribbean routes as well.

mikey72 · Mon Jul 02, 2012 9:34 am

Quoting APYu (Reply 1):
No chance in my opinion, while those routes can fill up a 744 during the school holidays, there are many other times of the year when you'd be flogging seats for peanuts (as Virgin do for lots of the year - an airline with a lower cost base).

772 works perfectly, and allows then to charge ridiculous fares during those peak times.

That I understand but the same could be said for some 744 routes at LHR and I think the 787 and A380 will change the landscape there when there are decent numbers in the fleet.

(I'm not saying it will happen tomorrow)

The 744 will slowly become the less desirable long-haul aircraft in the BA fleet from a passenger perspective.

APYu · Mon Jul 02, 2012 9:40 am

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 3):
The 744 will slowly become the less desirable long-haul aircraft in the BA fleet from a passenger perspective

While the 744 has an Upper Deck it will always be preferred by those in J over the 777. The 744 is also much better for F pax then the 777. OK so the IFE is a bit dodgy but we'll all have iPads in the next few years.

The A380 will always have a lure for passengers, but the order is still quite small.

Do we know yet if the 787 will be 3:3:3 in economy? or 2:4:2. That will have the biggest impact on whether Y pax might prefer that particular one.

scouseflyer · Mon Jul 02, 2012 9:49 am

Quoting APYu (Reply 4):
The A380 will always have a lure for passengers, but the order is still quite small.

I do wonder for how long that order will stay that small - I can see another 10 or so being added but the large majority of the 744 fleet beign replaced by the pending 777X / A350 order

mikey72 · Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:01 am

Quoting APYu (Reply 4):
While the 744 has an Upper Deck it will always be preferred by those in J over the 777. The 744 is also much better for F pax then the 777.

Yes I guess so - that did occur to me.

Just changing the subject slightly -

If BA are going to go again down the ' lets put on an overspill flight down at Gatters' route....

i.e the new LGW / LAS service.....might we see some other duplicates from LHR ?

They've done it before and if it can work for LAS......etc DXB ?

Bongodog1964 · Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:29 am

BA have upped the frequency on many of the LGW long haul routes inn recent years, one example being ANU which is flown most days, albeit with tag ons. MCO is double daily at weekends when demand is higher.
Assuming that there would be no requirement for 1st on these routes, and that the Club requirement is similar to present, this would increase economy seating by 50 or more per plane, could this be economically sold ?
If the result were decreasing frequency many would view it as a retrograde step.

jumpjets · Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:35 am

Quoting APYu (Reply 4):
Do we know yet if the 787 will be 3:3:3 in economy? or 2:4:2. That will have the biggest impact on whether Y pax might prefer that particular one.

Way back in 2008 there was a report floating around that BA had 'revealed' their 787 seat plan to staff, and the following is a quote from a post on flyertalk.com

'BA have revealed the cabin layout in LHR crew report center at terminal 5. 42 club world, 7 abreast (new for club world) 2-3-2. 51 world traveller plus 2-3-2 and rear cabin between 3 and 4 doors is 90 world traveller 2-4-2. 10 crew seats.

I have no evidence to doubt or support this posting - and as its from 2008 a lot could have happened since then - but if its true BA will have a 2-4-2 in Economy which is good to know. Maybe any a.netters who are BA staff can comment on the reliability of the original post on flyertalk.

vv701 · Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:56 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 2):
Hmmm. LGW-LAS - nice. Didnt know about that.

Three times a week from 29 October by 772 in addition to the daily 744 flight from LHR. So LAS becomes the only BA long haul destination served from both its hubs.

The new three-times-daily LGW-BCN-LGW rotation starts in February. The increases in frequency of LGW-FAO flights from four to five a week , LGW-AGP flights from seven to ten a week and LGW-RAK from three to seven a week are all scheduled from 28 October. From the same date the LGW-BLQ and LGW-MRS will be discontinued and three-times-daily flights to the same destinations will operate out of LHR.

BA have promised further announcements to changes to their Winter 2012-13 timetable later this month.

mikey72 · Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:57 am

Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 7):
BA have upped the frequency on many of the LGW long haul routes inn recent years, one example being ANU which is flown most days, albeit with tag ons. MCO is double daily at weekends when demand is higher.
Assuming that there would be no requirement for 1st on these routes, and that the Club requirement is similar to present, this would increase economy seating by 50 or more per plane, could this be economically sold ?
If the result were decreasing frequency many would view it as a retrograde step.

Yes I see your point.

But...you never see a BA 777 parked in the desert.

I can't help but think that from BA's perspective and in a few years time (with fleet renewal in full swing) it would make sense to have a percentage of your big ol' 744's (that let's face it you'd get rid of tomorrow if you could) where you know you can fill them. (albeit on the cheap)

Because with the current order book and the opportunites becoming available from LHR (slots etc) I really don't see them being in a position to just retire them 'sans' replacement.

?

APYu · Mon Jul 02, 2012 11:24 am

Are you suggesting that 747s at LGW would be more full than 747s at LHR? I dont think thats a correct assumption. BA's comprehensive short and mid haul network provide the feed necessary to keep the bums on the seats of those big birds from LHR, without the need to rely on the huge seasonality the bucket and spade routes require.

mikey72 · Mon Jul 02, 2012 12:39 pm

Quoting APYu (Reply 11):
Are you suggesting that 747s at LGW would be more full than 747s at LHR? I dont think thats a correct assumption. BA's comprehensive short and mid haul network provide the feed necessary to keep the bums on the seats of those big birds from LHR, without the need to rely on the huge seasonality the bucket and spade routes require.

No i'm not really saying that.

LHR is going to have probably 19 A380's and 24 787's ( not a great deal and ordered way before the ink was dry on BD) unless they order more aircraft I can see them keeping some 744's (not through choice as a suitable aircraft but a necessity to keep the expanding timetable flying) for longer.

No it's not ideal to have 744's at LGW but it does seem to be what other airlines have done with them (leisure routes) whilst upgrading fleets and the would be the lesser of two evils.

Let's see if they increase their order book....

[Edited 2012-07-02 05:40:08]

Sheridan125 · Mon Jul 02, 2012 12:56 pm

IMHO there is no way BA will use anything other than 777's at LGW for long haul. In several years time they may be changed to 787's but there is no current plan to do that.

mikey72 · Mon Jul 02, 2012 1:58 pm

Quoting Sheridan125 (Reply 13):
In several years time they may be changed to 787's but there is no current plan to do that.

What is the passenger config of a 787 approx ?

According to wiki they are going to have 90 seats in economy on BA. (on the 788 anyway)

That doesn't sound to me like the sort of aircraft you want to be sending to MCO ?

CAN yes.....MCO....... no.

[Edited 2012-07-02 06:59:34]

Liverpoola380 · Mon Jul 02, 2012 3:21 pm

Does anybody have any news on the 734 renewal yet? Are any of the BD birds coming across?

GT4EZY · Mon Jul 02, 2012 3:45 pm

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 14):
What is the passenger config of a 787 approx ?

According to wiki they are going to have 90 seats in economy on BA. (on the 788 anyway)

That doesn't sound to me like the sort of aircraft you want to be sending to MCO ?

CAN yes.....MCO....... no.

Very true but as I dare say you know, with any future orders, or indeed within any batch of deliveries, an airline can of course configure aircraft so they are optimised for certain types of route. No different to the BA 744/777 fleets in that respect.

mikey72 · Mon Jul 02, 2012 4:11 pm

Quoting GT4EZY (Reply 16):
No different to the BA 744/777 fleets in that respect.

Well look......I don't want to sound like i'm arguing black is white for the sake of it but when you compare the size of the 787 to its range.....is it really an aircraft a full service premium focused carrier will want to configure with high economy ?

I mean this isn't TOM we're talking about who have to pack in 291 on a 788 to make a decent profit compared to BA's 183 passengers.

With the high yielding routes available from LHR (alot not even in service yet) it's not an aircraft I see at LGW unless they order quite a few more of them.

vv701 · Mon Jul 02, 2012 4:16 pm

Do not write off BA's 744s too soon. The youngest is just past its thirteenth birthday and has perhaps got another 10 or 12 years useful life left in it. The oldest is approaching its 23 birthday and costs little if anything in terms of capital cost but is increasingly costly in terms of maintenance.

With an A380 listed at well over US $300 million and the likely purchase price being not far short of that figure, the capital cost of operating a 380 is likely to outweigh the additional maintenance and fuel costs of operating a fully written down 744.

When looking at a replacement for BA's 744s it should be remembered that when they were first ordered (in 1986) the market and probably the view of the future market looked very different to how it looks today. Indeed in 1997 deliveries of and firm orders held for the 744 by BA totaled 66 frames with options on a further seven to take the total to 73. But by then the outlook had changed. So when 50 744s had already been delivered in May 1998 BA cancelled firm orders for four aircraft ordering five 772ERs in their place. Only three months later in August of that year they cancelled orders for a further five 744s and all seven of the options. At the same time they ordered an additional 16 772s, this time powered by RR Trent instead of the GE engines installed in their earlier 772 frames. This left only seven 744s (instead of sixteen) to be delivered. All were delivered and in service by the early summer of 1999.

This all occurred around the time that the BA strategy changed and there was increased focus on premium class customers. This change resulted in the launch of their new, ground-breaking Club Class first generation lie-flat seat in the summer of 2000.

So while there may be further BA orders for the 380 as the current 744 fleet ages, this is fart from certain.

GT4EZY · Mon Jul 02, 2012 5:17 pm

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 17):
Well look......I don't want to sound like i'm arguing black is white for the sake of it but when you compare the size of the 787 to its range.....is it really an aircraft a full service premium focused carrier will want to configure with high economy ?

I mean this isn't TOM we're talking about who have to pack in 291 on a 788 to make a decent profit compared to BA's 183 passengers.

I didn't mention range and neither did you mate so it's no good bringing that into the debate at this late stage. You were explicitly referring to the aircraft seating configuration and whilst you were absolutely correct in highlighting that a config of 90 WT seats would be absolutely pants to somewhere like MCO, I was merely saying that configs can be tailored to specific types of routes like the current worldwide fleet is today. I also acknowledged that you were probably well aware of that.

For what it's worth, I don't see the 787 being a LGW based aircraft, not for a long time.

skipness1E · Mon Jul 02, 2012 5:56 pm

Quoting VV701 (Reply 18):
this is fart from certain.

Well that HAS to be the last word!

mikey72 · Mon Jul 02, 2012 6:37 pm

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 20):
Well that HAS to be the last word!

Trust you, I was going to let W701 get away with that !!

divemaster08 · Mon Jul 02, 2012 6:44 pm

I think in the current climate, airlines want to have better operating costs..... and today B744s are not the best. Not saying their bad aircraft, but they need to remain on routes that they can be filled (both pax and cargo) to ensure profits. Leisure routes now dont have the consistency that would require the B744 IMO.

The 777 is a far better choice. Better field operations for Caribbean routes also and better value for the leisure travelers.

The B763 is probably the better preferred for these leisure routes, but as BA focus on more of the premium traffic with the lower seating arrangements, they are probably not enough seats to be viable also (along with the cargo holds being smaller). This is where those B787 are going to come in handy!

Viscount724 · Mon Jul 02, 2012 9:26 pm

Quoting VV701 (Reply 18):
When looking at a replacement for BA's 744s it should be remembered that when they were first ordered (in 1986) the market and probably the view of the future market looked very different to how it looks today.

If memory correct, BA was still 100% government-owned in 1986. A totally different airline than today.

mikey72 · Tue Jul 03, 2012 7:53 am

Quoting VV701 (Reply 18):
Do not write off BA's 744s too soon.

Well luckily for BA in 2012 I don't think there is any other airline in the world that has the markets (high premium) and route structure to support 55 approx 747-400's and make a profit/stay financially respectable in these turbulent times.

From Moscow at 4 hours to Singapore at 14....she makes money even though at 20 years old in design and fuel efficiency etc.

I don't see that changing.

When the A380's start taking over the trunk routes it wil just be a very welcome boost.

APYu · Tue Jul 03, 2012 7:54 am

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 17):
I mean this isn't TOM we're talking about who have to pack in 291 on a 788 to make a decent profit compared to BA's 183 passengers

TOM who pack them in but offer more leg room in Y than either BA or VS.

gkirk · Tue Jul 03, 2012 8:03 am

Quoting APYu (Reply 25):
TOM who pack them in but offer more leg room in Y than either BA or VS.

Boo yaa!

mikey72 · Tue Jul 03, 2012 8:11 am

Quoting APYu (Reply 25):
TOM who pack them in but offer more leg room in Y than either BA or VS.

Oh come on APY....what sort of airline is TOM, how many wide-body aircraft do they have in their fleet and where do they fly to ?

Apples and oranges......don't you think ?

How much leg room does TOM offer in First and Club ?

(by the way)

skipness1E · Tue Jul 03, 2012 8:16 am

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 27):
Oh come on APY....what sort of airline is TOM, how many wide-body aircraft do they have in their fleet and where do they fly to ?

The same long haul holiday destinations as BA do from LGW, on a fleet of ten B767-300ERs. They give the majority of their passengers much more legroom it seems....

APYu · Tue Jul 03, 2012 8:19 am

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 27):
Oh come on APY....what sort of airline is TOM, how many wide-body aircraft do they have in their fleet and where do they fly to ?

Apples and oranges......don't you think ?

How much leg room does TOM offer in First and Club ?

Europes largest holiday airline. And lets remember most people dont travel in First and Club. Of course they are different types of airline, but they both compete for economy traffic on the leisure routes too lets not forget. I was merely pointing out to the person who suggested TOM - cram them in, that in fact, they do not.

mikey72 · Tue Jul 03, 2012 8:22 am

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 28):
The same long haul holiday destinations as BA do from LGW, on a fleet of ten B767-300ERs. They give the majority of their passengers much more legroom it seems....

I'm not sure of the business sense in BA reconfiguring its entire long-haul fleet to offer the same amount of leg room in its economy cabins as TOM's 10 767's at LGW ?

(skipness.........???)

gkirk · Tue Jul 03, 2012 8:25 am

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 28):

They offer flights from more UK airports than our so called flag carrier does as well

APYu · Tue Jul 03, 2012 8:29 am

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 30):
I'm not sure of the business sense in BA reconfiguring its entire long-haul fleet to offer the same amount of leg room in its economy cabins as TOM's 10 767's at LGW ?

I dont think anyone is suggesting they should. Each airline has their own USPs - the Legroom in Economy is one of TOMs

mikey72 · Tue Jul 03, 2012 8:30 am

Quoting APYu (Reply 29):
I was merely pointing out to the person who suggested TOM - cram them in, that in fact, they do not.

180 to 290....relatively they are cramming them in.

50% of BA's passengers on the 787 all 90 of them will occupy the same space as 66% of the passengers (190) on TOM.

Where exactly are we going with this ?

mikey72 · Tue Jul 03, 2012 8:37 am

Quoting gkirk (Reply 31):
They offer flights from more UK airports than our so called flag carrier does as well

Oh I know......and Ibiza is such an industrial / financial power house on the world stage.

What are they thinking at BA ?

Sorry, I don't mean to sound sarcastic but it's quite hard to reply and not.

gkirk · Tue Jul 03, 2012 8:41 am

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 33):
Where exactly are we going with this ?

Hopefully down the BA vs Everyone else route....we've not had one for a while

All joking aside, different airlines, serve different markets. TOM look for the leisure market, they provide better legroom in economy on long haul than any other UK carrier. Their model allows them to offer competitive fares from regional airports. They are not a hub based airline.

BA are in the same boat as LH,AF,KL,EK,SQ,UA,DL,AA, in that they offer a spoke-hub-spoke/hub service. They operate from London which is one of the most corrupt financial cities in the World! Those bankers cheat their way to using public money to fund their jaunts to far away destinations on BA and...

Wait, what was the orginal topic again?

APYu · Tue Jul 03, 2012 8:43 am

Round in circles we would seem. So, do we have anyone supporting the BA 747 to LGW motion?

gkirk · Tue Jul 03, 2012 8:46 am

Quoting APYu (Reply 36):
Round in circles we would seem. So, do we have anyone supporting the BA 747 to LGW motion?

No, I think they're probably better off staying at LHR.

Liverpoola380 · Tue Jul 03, 2012 8:47 am

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 34):
Oh I know......and Ibiza is such an industrial / financial power house on the world stage.

That is why BA has increased its Ibiza flight schedule from London City over the summer as it is a nothing destination

sorry had to throw my 2 pennies worth in.

More pressing is the 734 replacement question? Whats happening with that?

APYu · Tue Jul 03, 2012 8:59 am

Quoting liverpoola380 (Reply 38):
That is why BA has increased its Ibiza flight schedule from London City over the summer as it is a nothing destination

An effort to use the aircraft for some revenue generation at otherwise quiet times

gkirk · Tue Jul 03, 2012 9:02 am

Quoting liverpoola380 (Reply 38):
More pressing is the 734 replacement question? Whats happening with that?

I'm expecting a new Airbus order within the next 3-4 years, with older A319s/320s heading to Gatwick.
It'll be interesting how the LGW-BCN does up against easyJet.

mikey72 · Tue Jul 03, 2012 9:05 am

Quoting liverpoola380 (Reply 38):
That is why BA has increased its Ibiza flight schedule from London City over the summer as it is a nothing destination

Ibiza is hardly the crux of the point I was making is it ?

How about Cancun ?

Neither of which are 'nothing' destinations but what is bread and butter for one airline is not for another.

Quoting gkirk (Reply 35):
They operate from London which is one of the most corrupt financial cities in the World!

Is it ? Which are the others ? Maybe financial corruption in the world is confined to London ?

Quoting gkirk (Reply 35):
Those bankers cheat their way to using public money to fund their jaunts to far away destinations on BA and...

Do they ? BA are the only company that benefit from monies spent by the culprits in question ?

We better not mention the billions upon billions of legitimate tax receipts said bankers generate for the exchequer which are basically keeping the country afloat at the moment.

Off with their heads eh.

Quoting gkirk (Reply 37):
No, I think they're probably better off staying at LHR.

For now yes, in a few years time......I wouldn't be surprised.

[Edited 2012-07-03 02:07:01]

mikey72 · Tue Jul 03, 2012 9:17 am

Quoting APYu (Reply 32):
Each airline has their own USPs - the Legroom in Economy is one of TOMs

Well how do you explain a 4 million decrease in annual passenger numbers since 2007 ?

Not much of a USP is it ?

More like an act of desperation.

[Edited 2012-07-03 02:22:45]

APYu · Tue Jul 03, 2012 9:36 am

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 42):
Well how do you explain a 4 million decrease in annual passenger numbers since 2007 ?

Not much of a USP is it ?

More like an act of desperation

I would explain that as an effect of the increase in Low Cost carriers which has affected many airlines
Whats an act of desperation?

How many passengers have BA LGW lost since 2007?

[Edited 2012-07-03 02:43:46]

mikey72 · Tue Jul 03, 2012 9:45 am

Quoting APYu (Reply 43):
I would explain that as an effect of the increase in Low Cost carriers which has affected many airlines

Quoting APYu (Reply 43):
Whats an act of desperation?

Any airline that has to rely heavily on 'drawing already well served market share away' from more 'established' carriers seem to go for gimmicks or excess frills (EK, VS etc) or very low fares (FR, U2) to do it.

You see it all the time.

It works until the more established carriers up their game in terms of service or strengthen further their already strong positions.

(mergers, jv's etc)

[Edited 2012-07-03 02:50:42]

skipness1E · Tue Jul 03, 2012 9:49 am

Quoting gkirk (Reply 40):
I'm expecting a new Airbus order within the next 3-4 years, with older A319s/320s heading to Gatwick. It'll be interesting how the LGW-BCN does up against easyJet.

There will be no replacement until the RFP goes to the board, which I don't believe it has..... It depends on yet more concessions from staff I hear.

gkirk · Tue Jul 03, 2012 9:52 am

When's the next BA strike due anyway? Not had one for a while

mikey72 · Tue Jul 03, 2012 9:59 am

Quoting gkirk (Reply 46):
When's the next BA strike due anyway? Not had one for a while

Without them (or more accurately the changes that caused them) BA would not be the competitive airline that it is today.

Look across the channel to France.

I think BA has successfully negotiated its way through those stormy seas.

APYu · Tue Jul 03, 2012 10:06 am

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 44):
Any airline that has to rely heavily on 'drawing already well served market share away' from more 'established' carriers seem to go for gimmicks or excess frills (EK, VS etc) or very low fares (FR, U2) to do it

Drawing away market share? TOM arent moving into those markets if anything its the other way around!

APYu · Tue Jul 03, 2012 10:28 am

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 47):
I think BA has successfully negotiated its way through those stormy seas

Gatwick Cabin Crew voted against proposed changes just a few months ago.

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