US/AA Merger Update

CIDFlyer · Sat Jul 07, 2012 6:29 pm

Googled information to see if anything new was going on and came across this. Looks like if anything does happen it wont be this year, US seems to be backing off a little.
http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/0...sairways-amr-idINL2E8I47LN20120704

PHX787 · Sat Jul 07, 2012 7:26 pm

Quoting CIDFlyer (Thread starter):
Looks like if anything does happen it wont be this year, US seems to be backing off a little.

I think DP is getting an earful from a number of his Phoenix backers, and his courtship with the AA execs is getting a little complicated with Boeing's involvement.

lucky777 · Sun Jul 08, 2012 3:26 am

It sounds to me as if LCC has lost a great deal of momentum recently with regards to the hostile takeover attempt. I still think this merger/takeover will ultimately happen, but my guess is AA will be the ones calling the shots shortly after they exit bankruptcy and not Doug Parker and the boys in Tempe.

southwest737500 · Sun Jul 08, 2012 6:49 am

I hope doug Parker calls the shots. I DISLIKE AA CEO!!!!!

jmc1975 · Sun Jul 08, 2012 1:03 pm

Quoting lucky777 (Reply 2):
but my guess is AA will be the ones calling the shots shortly after they exit bankruptcy and not Doug Parker and the boys in Tempe.

That's exactly what it is...just a guess. The truth is, the bankruptcy courts will be the ones calling the shots on if and how AA emerges from Chap.11

AWACSooner · Sun Jul 08, 2012 1:24 pm

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 3):
I hope doug Parker calls the shots. I DISLIKE AA CEO!!!!!

And yet there are many more who feel the same about Doug Parker...

milemaster · Sun Jul 08, 2012 1:43 pm

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 3):
I hope doug Parker calls the shots. I DISLIKE AA CEO!!!!!

Question just for you: What is it you dislike about Tom Horton?

PHX787 · Sun Jul 08, 2012 2:04 pm

Quoting AWACSooner (Reply 5):
Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 3):
I hope doug Parker calls the shots. I DISLIKE AA CEO!!!!!

And yet there are many more who feel the same about Doug Parker...

I dislike both

Maybe as terms of AA's exit from BK and US's merger with AA they should completely overhaul their executives.

einsteinboricua · Sun Jul 08, 2012 2:55 pm

I don't think US is backing off (as in not that interested in merging). What I think is that they are waiting for the right moment to strike. I don't think Doug wants to rush and insist on merger: that might make the courts grant AA what they want instead. The intentions have been made clear: let's wait to see when they'll act on them.

AWACSooner · Sun Jul 08, 2012 2:56 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 7):

I dislike both Maybe as terms of AA's exit from BK and US's merger with AA they should completely overhaul their executives.

I wish UA and CO would've done the same!

etops1 · Sun Jul 08, 2012 4:07 pm

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 8):

That is exactly what's going on here . Parker in no way has backed off . It's all a process . It needs to play out this way .

CIDFlyer · Sun Jul 08, 2012 5:11 pm

I still think US management will somehow end up running the show....but glad they are not rushing into anything. US is doing pretty good now as it is...I like that they are taking this approach. I still think we will see them merge sometime probably next year. Hope it turns out like NW/DL did, and not like CO/UA, which from accounts from here seem like dissapointment.

SEPilot · Sun Jul 08, 2012 5:17 pm

I think that ultimately AA and US will have difficulty both surviving independently, but I believe they are probably the worst possible merger candidates (at least with each other). It reminds me of the Hitler-Stalin pact, and I suspect it will be almost as successful.

vhtje · Sun Jul 08, 2012 5:49 pm

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 12):
It reminds me of the Hitler-Stalin pact, and I suspect it will be almost as successful.

That's a little bit extreme, don't you think? It is in poor taste, anyway.

southwest737500 · Sun Jul 08, 2012 6:04 pm

Quoting milemaster (Reply 6):

He's cocky and thinks nothing is wrong with AA when clearly there a broke airline

I read this in the Charlotte observer 3 months ago I would love to find it

Flighty · Sun Jul 08, 2012 6:10 pm

There has not been a 'mea culpa' from AA management that would show they are on the same page as Wall Street in terms of how to run a company.

So, how do you trust AA management with any serious amount of money. Their ideas in the recent past were not any good. The greatest promise lies in eliminating AA management IMO.

[Edited 2012-07-08 11:11:51]

milemaster · Sun Jul 08, 2012 6:50 pm

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 14):
He's cocky and thinks nothing is wrong with AA when clearly there a broke airline

I read this in the Charlotte observer 3 months ago I would love to find it

So, you are basing your opinion on an opinion piece article you read 3 months ago in a local newspaper? A paper that is printed in a US hub city that would could be negatively affected by an AMR led acquisition? Got it.

ckfred · Sun Jul 08, 2012 6:53 pm

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 14):
He's cocky and thinks nothing is wrong with AA when clearly there a broke airline

I read this in the Charlotte observer 3 months ago I would love to find it

Quoting Flighty (Reply 15):
There has not been a 'mea culpa' from AA management that would show they are on the same page as Wall Street in terms of how to run a company.

So, how do you trust AA management with any serious amount of money. Their ideas in the recent past were not any good. The greatest promise lies in eliminating AA management IMO.

What will be interesting is who winds up with the stock of AMR upon exit from Chapter 11 (for the sake of argument, it won't be US). Often, the management team that guides a company throught the Chapter 11 process isn't the team that runs the company after exit.

If AMR is owned by its largest creditors (exchaning debt for equity is common for a company exiting Chapter 11), you may see a new management team upon exit, particularly if the unions have a substantial share of the company.

Granted, the unions want to merge with US, but they may be discussing with other large creditors some potential candidates for senior positions (CEO, COO, CFO, and so on) for when AA prepares to exit.

I'm not a financial whiz, but the main issue with AA is cost (regardless whether it's labor, aircraft leases, fuel). AA's costs are simply too high, compared to what it can charge for air fare and cargo. The rest of the business model is very workable, provided that it can get a cost structure similar to UA and DL.

The 5 cornerstones are large markets that have significant corporate contract opportunities. ATI with BA/IB/JA allow them to fly a fair amount of traffic to their hubs, while AA can look for routes from the cornerstones that make sense, espcially with the 777-300s allowing AA to reshuffle both the 777-200s and 767-300s. Assuming that the APA approves the TA, that allows AA to finalize the order for 787s, which allows AA to expand while scheduling retirement dates for the oldest 767-300s.

SEPilot · Sun Jul 08, 2012 7:31 pm

Quoting vhtje (Reply 13):
That's a little bit extreme, don't you think? It is in poor taste, anyway.

Yes, it is. But when I think of them joining forces that is the only analogy that comes to mind.

HPRamper · Sun Jul 08, 2012 9:45 pm

Quoting milemaster (Reply 16):
So, you are basing your opinion on an opinion piece article you read 3 months ago in a local newspaper? A paper that is printed in a US hub city that would could be negatively affected by an AMR led acquisition? Got it.

Have you ever read the Observer? They hate US. It's like that a lot in hub cities. The Star Tribune does the same thing with DL in Minneapolis, it's a nonstop bashfest.

September11 · Sun Jul 08, 2012 11:00 pm

Today, I learned that current CEO of US Airways is a 3-time DUI convict (arrested on 3 separate occasions for drinking and driving - the last time when CEO of US Airways). Could this be a factor in American/US Airways merger decision?

flyguy89 · Sun Jul 08, 2012 11:55 pm

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 8):
I don't think US is backing off (as in not that interested in merging). What I think is that they are waiting for the right moment to strike. I don't think Doug wants to rush and insist on merger: that might make the courts grant AA what they want instead. The intentions have been made clear: let's wait to see when they'll act on them.

Maybe he just got wise and realized it makes a whole hell of a lot more sense to merge AFTER AA exits from BK and has their s*it together.

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 14):
Quoting milemaster (Reply 6):

He's cocky and thinks nothing is wrong with AA when clearly there a broke airline

Considering he's the one bringing AA through BK, I seriously doubt he thinks nothing is wrong with AA as is.

HPRamper · Mon Jul 09, 2012 12:57 am

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 21):
Maybe he just got wise and realized it makes a whole hell of a lot more sense to merge AFTER AA exits from BK and has their s*it together.

Doubt it, because he wants to be in charge. Some things about Parker are arguable but the fact he has a huge ego is not.

If AA comes knocking after their bankruptcy, unless Parker ends up running the show I fully expect him to stonewall on the offer.

etops1 · Mon Jul 09, 2012 1:02 am

Quoting September11 (Reply 20):

That is completely false . He has only been arrested and convicted once . And this is no way has anything to do with the process of the merger .

phxa340 · Mon Jul 09, 2012 1:03 am

The reality of BK is that it is an incredibly slow agonizing process in which you have to dot every "i" and cross every "t". Throw in the complexity of a merger and it becomes that much more of a complex process. I think Parker has realized that letting AA get their own house in order , while btw Parker should do the same for US, then make a move on AA would be prudent.

Another possibility I see here is that the secured creditors have told Parker to back off until AA presents its own plan and sorts out their relationship with the unions. Boeing is on record as saying they want US to back off until AA has a chance to submit its own changes.

milemaster · Mon Jul 09, 2012 1:07 am

Quoting etops1 (Reply 23):

That is completely false . He has only been arrested and convicted once . And this is no way has anything to do with the process of the merger .

Actually it's not false in the least. He's had two DUI convictions in Texas and the more recent one in Arizona. Not that it's any of our business unless he's actually flying the planes.

[Edited 2012-07-08 18:12:32]

phxa340 · Mon Jul 09, 2012 1:11 am

Quoting milemaster (Reply 25):
Actually it's not false in the least. He's had two DUI convictions in Texas and the more recent one in Arizona.

Milemaster is correct however, he was 29 years old when it happened in Texas (Not saying a DUI is ever OK) but it does go to show that your past can come back and haunt you.

Ironically , his latest DUI in Scottsdale literally happened hours after Delta rejected his hostile takeover bid.

chepos · Mon Jul 09, 2012 1:33 am

Quoting September11 (Reply 20):
Today, I learned that current CEO of US Airways is a 3-time DUI convict (arrested on 3 separate occasions for drinking and driving - the last time when CEO of US Airways). Could this be a factor in American/US Airways merger decision

People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones. Let's start digging in everyones closet and see what we find. I'm sure we will find many of you have done some stupid crap in your past.

Regards,

Chepos

[Edited 2012-07-08 18:52:04]

aztrainer · Mon Jul 09, 2012 1:38 am

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 24):
Another possibility I see here is that the secured creditors have told Parker to back off until AA presents its own plan and sorts out their relationship with the unions. Boeing is on record as saying they want US to back off until AA has a chance to submit its own changes.

Very possible as well as the fact that he could of made some of the backers in Phoenix and Tempe mad with his statement of moving to Texas IF they do acquire AA. Parker may be looking at a worst case scenario in which he played his hand too quickly and now the people that are some of his backers are having questions about his allegiances to the Phoenix area.

There was an article in the Azcentral http://www.azcentral.com/business/ar...ys-chief-says-merger-delay-ok.html on July 5th stating Parker was OK on waiting.....

phxa340 · Mon Jul 09, 2012 1:39 am

Quoting chepos (Reply 27):
People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones. Let's start digging in everyones closet and see what we find. I'm sure we will find many of you have done some stupid crap in your past.

The only problem with that is that were not CEOs of multi million dollar corporations whose decisions effect 1000s of people

incitatus · Mon Jul 09, 2012 2:09 am

Quoting chepos (Reply 27):
People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.

I completely agree with that. I also think those who don't live in glass houses should have the privilege

Having a DWI conviction, or just driving while intoxicated is something completely unacceptable. It is lack of regard with the lives of other people we share the road with.

Quoting lucky777 (Reply 2):
It sounds to me as if LCC has lost a great deal of momentum recently with regards to the hostile takeover attempt

If you go back and read all the news about this "attempt" you will realize that US never accomplished anything material. Even the agreement with the unions is an "agreement in principle", i.e., just a tap on each other's backs. There wasn't even a $100 penalty to break the agreement. US has been unable to line up commitment from any creditor or investor to make the deal happen.

Many in Wall Street were simply talking the stock up to make a quick buck. Then last week for every call sold on US stock there were 39 puts being sold - Wall Street has moved on and airline stocks will heat up when AA has an IPO.

lucky777 · Mon Jul 09, 2012 2:25 am

Quoting chepos (Reply 27):
People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones. Let's start digging in everyones closet and see what we find. I'm sure we will find many of you have done some stupid crap in your past.

Regards,

Chepos

If i'm not mistaken, the night the Delta creditors told Parker and company to go pound sand, he drank himself into a real bender and was arrested in Tempe....real classy to say the least.

milemaster · Mon Jul 09, 2012 2:35 am

Quoting lucky777 (Reply 31):
If i'm not mistaken, the night the Delta creditors told Parker and company to go pound sand, he drank himself into a real bender and was arrested in Tempe....real classy to say the least.

It is true that his arrest happened the same day, but I wouldn't call a blood alcohol content of .096 after leaving a golf tournament any sort of "bender".

[Edited 2012-07-08 19:37:00]

September11 · Mon Jul 09, 2012 2:54 am

Quoting milemaster (Reply 25):

oh, double DUI conviction in the state of TEXAS.. That's worsening, is it?? Was he employed by American Airlines at time of his first 2 DUI mishaps? I think, in his earlier years, he held one or two management positions at AA.

on a lighter & funny note, is Doug currently attending AA (Alcoholics Anonymous, not American Airlines) meetings???

CapEd388 · Mon Jul 09, 2012 3:24 am

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 14):
He's cocky and thinks nothing is wrong with AA when clearly there a broke airline

Of course hes gonna be optimistic about AA, hes their CEO. Hes the main spokesperson and representative for the company. What do you want him to say "Yeah were screwed!. We incur loss after loss. We are a huge mess and we suck". Of course not, hes gonna say that they are trying to improve and trying to get the company back on track and that American is still a great airline...blah blah blah, but Im sure Mr. Horton is aware of the reality.

I obviously don't know Mr. Parker personally, but I get the feeling he does have a very big ego, as others have said before. I just get the feeling that he wants to be at the helm of a mega airline and he will do whatever it takes to make that happen. First it was his attempt to merge with DL and now his sights are set on AA. I feel he is seeking a merger for the wrong reasons.

This is how i would love to see things going. I would hope they'd take a page from Delta's playbook.

- AA continues with their BK proceedings and emerges early next year.
- AA emerges with a new strategy and management mindset.
- AA slowly gets back on its feet and starts to rebuild and grow slowly.
- AA continues to strengthen and rebuild for about a year.
- After about a 12-18 months of rebuilding, AA merges with US.
- The two have a successful merger ala DL/NW ( i know, quite a stretch) and become a big strong player.

Ah, only if....

HPRamper · Mon Jul 09, 2012 3:43 am

Of course people jump on the DUI bandwagon, regardless of the fact that is has zero bearing on anything.

Have you seen the people we have elected President lately?

lucky777 · Mon Jul 09, 2012 4:48 am

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 35):
Have you seen the people we have elected President lately?

You would be speaking of the Bush clan no doubt, correct?

HPRamper · Mon Jul 09, 2012 5:22 am

Quoting lucky777 (Reply 36):
You would be speaking of the Bush clan no doubt, correct?

Partially. Before that it was Clinton, who while having a relatively clean record had his personal moral shortcomings. The point is that someone can have plenty of personal flaws and still do the job he is paid to do. There are a lot of good people who have made mistakes. How many people in the United States have gotten DUI convictions...are they all bad people, I highly doubt it.

As for the most recent DUI, I daresay a .096 is less than the vast majority of the millions of people headed home from the bar on any given night.

PHX787 · Mon Jul 09, 2012 8:36 am

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 35):

Quoting lucky777 (Reply 36):

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 37):

This has nothing to do with the topic at hand.

Of course DP is a bit eccentric but a simple DUI isn't enough to disqualify him for the role of CEO.

What I see is DP is getting an earful from a lot of creditors (and maybe a lot of locals here in the Valley) and he's making the right call by holding off on this whole merger thing.

slvrblt · Mon Jul 09, 2012 12:50 pm

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 24):
Another possibility I see here is that the secured creditors have told Parker to back off until AA presents its own plan and sorts out their relationship with the unions. Boeing is on record as saying they want US to back off until AA has a chance to submit its own changes.

Also....courts (judges) take a very dim view of outsiders meddling, or ''stirring the pot'' in their court proceedings. I doubt Judge Lane has viewed kindly Doug Parker's attempts to make deals with AA unions on the side and thus complicate the proceedings in his courtroom. Particularly as Parker certainly doesn't have his own house in order.

Personally.....I don't EVER see US coming onto the property, with either AA acquiring, or vice-versa. I think there MAY be another carrier on the horizon, after AA exits BK. But it won't be US.

JFKPurser · Mon Jul 09, 2012 12:57 pm

Quoting etops1 (Reply 10):
That is exactly what's going on here . Parker in no way has backed off . It's all a process . It needs to play out this way .

Quoting Flighty (Reply 15):
There has not been a 'mea culpa' from AA management that would show they are on the same page as Wall Street in terms of how to run a company.

So, how do you trust AA management with any serious amount of money. Their ideas in the recent past were not any good. The greatest promise lies in eliminating AA management IMO.

Two critical points above -- neither of which is lost on the UCC.

This week we will see some major movement toward the US takeover. From what I am told, APFA has successfully leveraged that AMR sign two critical docs that will allow US unlimited access to its finances -- a step that is key for US to complete a fully informed business plan and present it to the UCC -- in exchange for the APFA sending out a TA to the membership, which AMR desperately needs at this point -- ratified TAs from each union. The TWU may or may not have been involved in this as well. There are many people playing in the sandbox over at the UCC, so it remains to be seen who will end up taking credit for all of it. But the most important element is that this take US one critical step closer to taking over AMR, because with their takeover plan fully complete, it will be only a question of waiting for AMR to finish sorting out the details of their inferior plan, and when it is done, we can expect to see the UCC ask Judge Lane to end exclusivity so the plans may be formally compared. This development takes US one step closer to checkmate, as Horton was put in check on the day US signed agreements with all three AMR unions.

phxa340 · Mon Jul 09, 2012 1:13 pm

Quoting JFKPurser (Reply 40):
This week we will see some major movement toward the US takeover.

From what is being reported in the media , this is completely false. In fact , this week demonstrates US backing away temporarily from AA. I understand you really want this merger to go through but isn't it just possible that the creditors and others have looked at US' plan and they might consider AA to be the more realistic option.

aztrainer · Mon Jul 09, 2012 1:31 pm

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 41):
From what is being reported in the media , this is completely false. In fact , this week demonstrates US backing away temporarily from AA. I understand you really want this merger to go through but isn't it just possible that the creditors and others have looked at US' plan and they might consider AA to be the more realistic option.

True, but how many times has the media been wrong? It would make sense to keep a low profile and deny that anything is going to happen. US could also be going about a plan of Plausible Deniability

milemaster · Mon Jul 09, 2012 1:37 pm

Quoting aztrainer (Reply 42):
True, but how many times has the media been wrong? It would make sense to keep a low profile and deny that anything is going to happen. US could also be going about a plan of Plausible Deniability

My opinion is that US has been the exact opposite of what would be considered to be a low profile until now. Why start downplaying things after up-playing the merger proposal and non-binding union agreements? Doesn't make sense unless the board/creditors said that it's not in the best interest of US pressing the bankruptcy process.

phxa340 · Mon Jul 09, 2012 1:38 pm

Quoting aztrainer (Reply 42):
True, but how many times has the media been wrong?

JFKPurser has often mentioned how this merger is imminent and how big news is always forthcoming , yet it never comes to reality ... so take what he says with a grain of salt, with that being said he offers an incredible insight to the employee view of AA , something were fortunate to have on here to understand the entire situation.

JFKPurser · Mon Jul 09, 2012 1:40 pm

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 41):
From what is being reported in the media , this is completely false. In fact , this week demonstrates US backing away temporarily from AA. I understand you really want this merger to go through but isn't it just possible that the creditors and others have looked at US' plan and they might consider AA to be the more realistic option.

Everything you are reading in the media is to be taken with a grain of salt. People writing these articles know only half the story. They are reporting things from the perspective of how they would flow if everything were going on schedule, and where they stand as of the current minute, and a great deal of here-say -- as well as some actual truth. But what I said above is that things are about to change drastically.

As far as the UCC considering the AMR plan to be the most realistic option, nothing could be further from the truth. The UCC is long aware that the AMR standalone plan is inferior for several reasons: 1) It is estimated to deliver around 30% less value to shareholders seeking to recoup their investment immediately -- i.e. the three banks on the UCC. 2) It has not had the support of anyone on Wall Street. 3) It has neither the confidence or support of an of AMR's front-line employees. The major plot point toward them rejecting the AMR plan in favor of the US one is about to get one step closer as both AMR and US are each coming closer to finishing their final offers. The timeline set forth in the media can and will change whenever the UCC asks the judge to end exclusivity and formally compare the two plans.What is playing out here is a series of necessary formalities that will continue for the next several months until the US takeover of AMR is complete.

[Edited 2012-07-09 06:48:23]

aztrainer · Mon Jul 09, 2012 1:54 pm

Quoting milemaster (Reply 43):
Doesn't make sense unless the board/creditors said that it's not in the best interest of US pressing the bankruptcy process.

I agree and think that this is more the case. They still need to solidify the US problems before taking on AA's no matter how smooth that could be. I think Parker has been told to cool it by creditors as well as making people whom have backed US in Phoenix a little angry about moving the HQ to Texas if they acquire AA.

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 44):
JFKPurser has often mentioned how this merger is imminent and how big news is always forthcoming , yet it never comes to reality ... so take what he says with a grain of salt, with that being said he offers an incredible insight to the employee view of AA , something were fortunate to have on here to understand the entire situation.

Thank you. I was also just stating that it seems one media outlet "breaks" the story and the rest jump on it without vetting the information.

incitatus · Mon Jul 09, 2012 2:02 pm

Quoting JFKPurser (Reply 45):
The UCC is long aware that the AMR standalone plan is inferior for several reasons:

This statement has no basis because due diligence for a US/AA merger has not been done. There is nothing to compare AMR's standalone plan to.

Keep on going like... "Boeing is on board", "This merger has a 90% chance of happening".... very entertaining.

Quoting JFKPurser (Reply 40):
But the most important element is that this take US one critical step closer to taking over AMR,

There have been ZERO critical steps so far, so this would be a first.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 35):

Have you seen the people we have elected President lately?

Companies are not democracies. The process of vetting and making it to President is very different from the one for CEO.

JFKPurser · Mon Jul 09, 2012 2:14 pm

I never said due diligence was done. It is coming one step close to happening based on what is occurring behind the scenes now. But fine. Don't pay any attention to anything I say.

ckfred · Mon Jul 09, 2012 2:20 pm

The fact that AA's unions have agreements with US doesn't mean a merger will happen. I know some AA pilots who, while having little confidence in Horton, have the same level of low confidence in Parker. They feel that Parker has something to prove, just like Steve Wolf had something to prove. Bob Crandall once told Wolf that he would never rise about VP-Western Division, so Wold spent his whole career proving Crandall wrong.

In other words, Parker just wants to prove that he can be CEO of a very large airline. He's not really interested in running a great airline. Horton wants to run a great airline. He just may not have the skill set that lends itself to running a large carrier and making it great.

And frankly, the pilots I know don't want to wind up flying with US pilots. There is still a lot of animosity resulting from the US/HP merger. If AA and US merge, US pilots may not like how the seniority list is finally settled. So, if you're an AA pilot (Captain or F/O), do you really want to spend a month flying with someone who sees you as the enemy who screwed his career, because of the CEO's ego?

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