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jumpjets
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Wed Jul 11, 2012 3:26 pm

In the early days of AA being in chapter 11 there were murmurings that Oneworld partners such as IAG might pitch in with some capital for AA - with the hope that an investment from them would serve to deter unwelcome investors from other US airlines.

I have not heard anymore of that of late. Does anyone have any idea/knowledge if this has developed beyond a rumour - and if it was likely how that might impact on AA/US merging?

Presumably with AA being in chapter 11 they won't be [or won't be allowed to] participate in the IPO for JAL who I believe are also hoping for Oneworld participation.
 
JFKPurser
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Wed Jul 11, 2012 4:03 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 93):
I guess the unions seem to be spinning the story that they are driving this process. Let them think that. I don't. The unions are pushing for what they want - and so are a bunch of other people. We'll see what happens. I eagerly await hearing the specifics of both plans - including precisely what Parker is actually proposing, since to date we've gotten a lot of press statements, interviews, and a non-binding set of bullet points .

Guess what? There is no spinning. The unions and the UCC are now fully in control of this process. The unions -- APFA and TWU -- just forced Horton's hand, and made a deal with him to let him have credit for this -- because "face" is really the only thing he is capable of saving at this point. And that's not a story you will read in the press, because that part of the deal was agreed to be kept secret.

And you will start to hear plenty from Parker as well. And you will see AMR play foolishly around with sillier and sillier ideas -- like merging with B6, or Frontier or Alaska --like I said -- all to make it look like his own employees are not forcing him into the US merge. But you can believe what you want. You will eventually see my point.

The APA were originally supposed to be in on this as well, but they chickened out, went their own way and sent out a TA without this stipulation from Horton -- ostensibly they were fixated upon the part of their TA that stipulated the 13.5% of shares as if it were pornography. So yes -- the APFA did it, along with the TWU. And the remaining UCC members were fully behind it. But APFA and TWU totally laid down the line -- no NDAs -- no TAs sent out. End of story. This "request" occurred last Thursday. And here we are today.

 
phxa340
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Wed Jul 11, 2012 4:06 pm

Quoting JFKPurser (Reply 101):
Guess what? There is no spinning. The unions and the UCC are now fully in control of this process.

Haha. Fully in control ... hardly ! If they were fully in control , AA would have never had to resort to BK to get their contracts thrown out. In BK the judge will and always will hold the trump cards.
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Wed Jul 11, 2012 4:29 pm

Quoting JFKPurser (Reply 101):
The unions and the UCC are now fully in control of this process.

I almost fell out of my chair laughing.

Absurd. But hey, whatever makes you sleep at night.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
HPRamper
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Wed Jul 11, 2012 5:10 pm

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 99):
I think you and I are arguing the same point - that Boeing is not on board with the merger as US is/will be a sole Airbus customer.

Full Disclosure FYI means that Boeing must disclose any action they will/are going to be taking that could have a negative impact on their stock price. Supporting an AA merger could do just that hypothetically as they are delivering a Boeing customer into Airbus' hands. However it is entirely possibly that the AA merger gives Boeing access to a previously all Airbus customer as well.

I think that is more the reality of the situation - that Boeing sees this not as losing a customer, but gaining a customer (or at least, doing away with an all-Airbus customer).
 
phxa340
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Wed Jul 11, 2012 5:21 pm

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 105):
I think that is more the reality of the situation - that Boeing sees this not as losing a customer, but gaining a customer (or at least, doing away with an all-Airbus customer).

Agreed but I still don't see how some are trying to argue the point that Boeing is full throttle on board for this merger  
 
flyfree727
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Wed Jul 11, 2012 5:57 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 104):
Absurd. But hey, whatever makes you sleep at night.

What is absurd is the JFKPurser has basically given us the news "the day before" it happens, word for word, yet no one on here sees any credibility. How many times does a point have to be made and proven to make a believer? Even more absurd is the amount of obsession some have with this whole process who have absolutely nothing DIRECTLY to gain or lose? Many of you "hobbiest" are actually obsessed with this whole process.. That, is fascinating, and slightly disturbing all at the same time.

AA ORD
 
Flighty
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:11 pm

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 96):
make PHX, CLT, and PHL spokes to the Cornerstones, and let go all the US employees that don't fit into PMAA's business strategy. It would seem that US is acquiring AA to replace AA's MD-80s with the more efficient planes AA needs, and then let current AA management call the shots.

Hahahaha. sick sense of humor.   
 
mikey72
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:20 pm

Well seeing as the US Airways merger was first mooted in 2009 I wish they'd just get on with it.
Flying is like sex - I've never had all I wanted but occasionally I've had all I can stand.
 
aajfksjubklyn
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:24 pm

Quoting chepos (Reply 82):
I grew up in the island of Puerto Rico and flew American extensively as AA had a stronghold on the island up until a couple of years ago. I have to say the American I flew for years was reliable and usually on time but service wise it was like most other US carriers. In recent years I have flown AA TATL and to deep South America, again nothing special - very similar to most other US carriers. I know many here have a love affair with the carrier of their choice but let's not make AA out as the Emirates or the SIA of the America's with this awesome service some of you are talking about. In this country all airlines are on about the same service standards.

I never said or attempted to make AA look like Emirates or SIA. What I was saying is, they are getting better and have made substantial improvements in terminals, planes and clubs they operate. I do have a love affair with flying, I do fly AA for many reasons. They have safely gotten me everywhere I have travelled in my 2.5 Million miles on them (Actual). AA pulled out of Puerto Rico for evil practices (Giving B6 free slots and charging AA more) and a dying economy in PR. Which is unfortunate, but they still serve the island from NY quite well, as I use them monthly as I have a home down there in Isabella. You will never catch me on B6 flight unless AA eats them up...Which I hope they do.
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:26 pm

Quoting flyfree727 (Reply 106):
What is absurd is the JFKPurser has basically given us the news "the day before" it happens

If that were true, I would listen. It isnt.

Weve heard over and over that Boeing is on board with the US takeover which is false. Its not even as if Boeing has remained silent, instead they have come out saying that would like AA to finish chapter 11 on their own.

http://www.morningstar.com/invest/ar...acks-amr-delaying-merger-talk.html

http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/2...eing-chief-supports-american.html/
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
phxa340
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:29 pm

Quoting flyfree727 (Reply 106):
What is absurd is the JFKPurser has basically given us the news "the day before" it happens, word for word, yet no one on here sees any credibility.

I invite you to keep drinking his union Kool-Aid. He hasn't said anything really that we all knew was going to happen anyway - he just puts a union spin on every peice of news that comes out.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 110):
Weve heard over and over that Boeing is on board with the US takeover which is false.

  
 
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chepos
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Wed Jul 11, 2012 8:28 pm

Quoting aajfksjubklyn (Reply 109):
AA pulled out of Puerto Rico for evil practices
AA pulled the plug on the SJU focus city because it no longer served them a purpose. AA had been pulling back service way before it finally decreased the station to an outstation. The first pull down occurred when they closed the crew base back in the 90's, they progressively started decreasing the number of flights since then. It would be sad very sad if B6 gets eaten up by AA, for one PSE and BQN today have service thx to B6 (UA operates a token flight from EWR to BQN). If AA were to purchase B6 most prob BQN and PSE would loose their links to JFK and MCO and these flights are vital to the regions they serve and the airports (Mercedita and Borinquen). Not to mention the SJU focus city would most prob close, SJU is not part of the almighty cornerstone strategy. AA is not going to be chasing that low yield Caribbean traffic.

[Edited 2012-07-11 13:32:09]

[Edited 2012-07-11 13:33:03]
Fly the Flag!!!!
 
JFKPurser
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 12:10 am

Quoting flyfree727 (Reply 106):
What is absurd is the JFKPurser has basically given us the news "the day before" it happens, word for word, yet no one on here sees any credibility. How many times does a point have to be made and proven to make a believer? Even more absurd is the amount of obsession some have with this whole process who have absolutely nothing DIRECTLY to gain or lose? Many of you "hobbiest" are actually obsessed with this whole process.. That, is fascinating, and slightly disturbing all at the same time.

AA ORD

Yep. I'll just keep given' them the news...
 
AAIL86
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 12:43 am

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 110):
Weve heard over and over that Boeing is on board with the US takeover which is false. Its not even as if Boeing has remained silent, instead they have come out saying that would like AA to finish chapter 11 on their own.

Right on. There is more to be gained for Boeing by dragging this process out. The Boeing board realizes that a merger is quite possible, however in my opinion they will prefer to wait and support AA management's own plan in the hopes AA will remain a mostly Boeing airline. Besides, there's nothing to be gained for them by supporting DP's plan - just an airline with a larger percentage of Airbus aircraft in its fleet.

Quoting flyfree727 (Reply 106):
What is absurd is the JFKPurser has basically given us the news "the day before" it happens, word for word, yet no one on here sees any credibility

There may be certain agreed on "facts" present in every news story - but no human can escape some level of bias. Especially when some of us have years of hard work invested - it's very hard not to have strong feelings based on our perspectives. I understand where you guys are coming from, I really do - I gave eight years of my life to American (all in the operational environment) and still work in the industry. So lets not pretend that some of are un-opinionated purveyors of facts - because that's impossible.
" Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness ... Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime. ” - Mark Twain, 1869
 
incitatus
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 1:03 am

Quoting JFKPurser (Reply 113):
Yep. I'll just keep given' them the news...

Hardly the news when so many absurdities are interlaced. Consider:

Quoting JFKPurser (Reply 101):
The unions and the UCC are now fully in control of this process.

Chapter 11 Basics: The judge is in control. Let me re-type: In court-supervised reorganizations the judge is in control. Employees, creditors and company may come to the judge and say they all agree to something. The judge may say no. Creditors committees have an advisory role. Even if they vote 100% on something.
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
phxa340
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 1:12 am

Also if Horton really was just putting on a show like the creditors ... why this quote from Parker ?

"Parker told USA TODAY that he's been frustrated by US Airways' inability to talk to the bankrupt airline or its creditors about merging the third and fourth largest U.S. airlines into one"

Key word : frustrated. If Parker's plan was going smooth and everyone was just putting on a show for the eventuality that is the AA/US tie up ... Parker would be sitting around relaxing.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/indust...or-merger-with-American/56154848/1
 
milemaster
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 1:44 am

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 116):

Also if Horton really was just putting on a show like the creditors ... why this quote from Parker ?

"Parker told USA TODAY that he's been frustrated by US Airways' inability to talk to the bankrupt airline or its creditors about merging the third and fourth largest U.S. airlines into one"

Key word : frustrated. If Parker's plan was going smooth and everyone was just putting on a show for the eventuality that is the AA/US tie up ... Parker would be sitting around relaxing.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/indust...or-merger-with-American/56154848/1


That is an excellent point. I do think the board is putting pressure on Horton to consider merger opportunities, but it's not because Parker has gone guerilla with AMR unions. I can't image anyone on the AMR side is happy with Parker's tactics.
 
JFKPurser
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 1:52 am

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 90):
"Boeing chairman and CEO Jim McNerney threw his support behind American Airlines’ plan for emerging from bankruptcy, a plan that does not include a merger with US Airways Group while American is in bankruptcy proceedings"

This statement was made many months ago. For Boeing to have expressed anything else would seem to be very irregular. Why would Mr. McNerney want to publicly humiliate the CEO of American Airlines, one of Boeing's best customers. But I can say for sure is that this is not what they have been expressing behind closed doors about AMR's plan.

Quoting AAIL86 (Reply 114):
Besides, there's nothing to be gained for them by supporting DP's plan - just an airline with a larger percentage of Airbus aircraft in its fleet.

Boeing is interested in supporting the American Airlines which has the healthiest overall long-term prospects. This is why they have privately expressed to other members on the UCC that they have no confidence in AA's standalone plan. They agree with the PBGC and the three unions that the best future for AMR and for the entire industry is consolidation in the form of a merger, sooner rather than later (specifically with US in this case), which is not outside of the mainstream. On the contrary -- this is the prevailing wisdom -- everywhere except for A.net. They will want to do what is best for their business -- decades into the future. It is ridiculously shortsighted for people to assume that Boeing' s support for a US takeover of AMR hinges anything upon whether or not US Airways, historically less than half the current AMR's size, has traditionally been an Airbus customer, or at this moment in time operates a predominantly Airbus fleet, which is the shallow "wisdom" typically expressed here.

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 102):
Haha. Fully in control ... hardly ! If they were fully in control , AA would have never had to resort to BK to get their contracts thrown out. In BK the judge will and always will hold the trump cards.
OK. I will amend that. Not fully in control. But unions and the UCC have certainly been charting the designated course for AMR on the map, which Horton at this point has very little choice other than to follow.

Quoting B377 (Reply 56):
I have been reading your comments regarding the pros for US merging with AA for quite some time. I finally am tired of your constant Union banter. Your viewpoint is not shared by many current, former and retired AA employees. The main point that I have is that the US Air TA's, which you claim will be superior to AA's, will be terminated if AA succeeds in exiting bankruptcy without a US Air merger. AA has the cash on hand to trump any other companies bankruptcy exit offer, and in the case of US, I believe they will.

Uh oh. Another union-hater who doesn't like me on A.net. What to do, what to do... Anyhoo, I don't know exactly where you work(ed) or in what department, if ever at all, or if these people just happen to be a few of your neighbors or whatever. But I am in regular contact with many thousands of AA employees on a face-to-face basis and also in large numbers by computer almost 24/7, and while I would not argue that a few here and there are skeptical, the vast majority of AA employees are totally behind this merge -- frankly -- they are behind whatever it would take to oust current AMR management. I am hardly alone in my opinions, as much as those opinions as well as my presence here may irritate you. And from what you are saying about me, I am pleased that I appear to be doing my job.

And this is not just about cash. There are only three members of the UCC only concerned about cash, and those are the three banks. The remaining six members (who form a majority) have expressed that their interest in this restructuring lies not only in an immediate return on their investment with the most pennies on the dollar, but also in the outcome which will generate the best prospects for a future AMR that creates the most competitive airline with market rate compensation and the best job security (in the case of unions), the highest revenue and best possibilities for growth (interests of Boeing and HP -- they can sell a bigger, healthier AMR more planes and computers for decades to come) and the least chance of going back into BK and defaulting on its pensions (what the PBGC wants to see), because they have ongoing business interests over the long term with AMR. So cash payoffs are only part of the quotient driving what the UCC will ultimately decide, and when it comes to that. Parker will have just as he needs to in order to match what AMR would offer to pay off the banks.

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 111):
Quoting flyfree727 (Reply 106):
What is absurd is the JFKPurser has basically given us the news "the day before" it happens, word for word, yet no one on here sees any credibility.

I invite you to keep drinking his union Kool-Aid. He hasn't said anything really that we all knew was going to happen anyway - he just puts a union spin on every peice of news that comes out.


Yes. I keep forgetting that you, too are correctly predicting events days or weeks before they actually happen based on your personal inside knowledge of the actual events as they unfold in real time behind the scenes. And as far as spin goes, the snapshot of events behind the scenes I have been providing you would be correct regardless of my membership in a union. But I guess that makes it doubly frustrating let alone totally impossible for you to swallow anything I post here. And no matter what I ever will post here before it actually happens, when it does, It's no secret that you and many others will inevitably manufacture some bent argument it was what everyone knew was going to happen all along -- up to and including the actual takeover of AMR by US Airways, because after all, everyone knew it was the only real possibility from the very beginning.

And to flyfree727 -- I know. Weird, isn't it? There's this component of abject denial operating here. The only time I remember experiencing similar feelings was around the time I was 7 years old, when I was informed there was no Santa Claus.





[Edited 2012-07-11 19:35:25]
 
AAIL86
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 3:28 am

Quoting JFKPurser (Reply 118):
And to flyfree727 -- I know. Weird, isn't it? There's this component of abject denial operating here. The only time I remember experiencing similar feelings was around the time I was 7 years old, when I was informed there was no Santa Claus.

Interesting. You completely ignored my point our our lack of objectivity. Was it a little too close to home? Mark my words - if US Airways does succeed in this takeover - I give you six months before you hate Doug Parker as much you the current regime. Parker and Horton used to sit in cubicles 10 feet apart, do you really think they are that much different?

edited: grammar

[Edited 2012-07-11 20:29:04]
" Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness ... Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime. ” - Mark Twain, 1869
 
SATexan
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 3:32 am

Quoting JFKPurser (Reply 118):
The remaining six members (who form a majority) have expressed that their interest in this restructuring lies not only in an immediate return on their investment with the most pennies on the dollar, but also in the outcome which will generate the best prospects for a future AMR that creates the most competitive airline with market rate compensation and the best job security (in the case of unions), the highest revenue and best possibilities for growth

While I don't doubt that merging with US will make AA more competative, I am curious to know how exactly does DP's plan result in an immediate return on investment?
 
PHX787
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 3:33 am

Interesting article from ABC15 here in the valley:

http://www.abc15.com/dpp/news/region...-ceo-says-merger-delays-fine-by-us
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lucky777
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 3:43 am

Quoting JFKPurser (Reply 118):
Boeing is interested in supporting the American Airlines which has the healthiest overall long-term prospects. This is why they have privately expressed to other members on the UCC that they have no confidence in AA's standalone plan. They agree with the PBGC and the three unions that the best future for AMR and for the entire industry is consolidation in the form of a merger, sooner rather than later (specifically with US in this case), which is not outside of the mainstream

And how might you be privy to such inside information?

Quoting JFKPurser (Reply 118):
But I can say for sure is that this is not what they have been expressing behind closed doors about AMR's plan.

Again, you make a blanket statement about you having some sort of shadowy presence inside the inner workings of AA's bankruptcy and yet you fail to give even a shred of factual information to back up your outlandish claims. Your merely presenting your biased opinion and trying to pawn it off as somehow fact.
 
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chepos
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 7:15 am

****Sigh**** We keep on beating the dead horse, this thread should be closed. People stop wasting your precious time arguing over something most of you have no stake in.
Fly the Flag!!!!
 
mikey72
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 3:41 pm

Quoting chepos (Reply 123):
****Sigh**** We keep on beating the dead horse, this thread should be closed. People stop wasting your precious time arguing over something most of you have no stake in.

Oh spoil sport....this will re-ignite the flame.

Stands to reason that once AA has merged with US.....AA will regain its 'rightful' position as the U.S.A's largest airline.

I think in terms of flights operated AA will be about 5 or 6 thousand ahead of DL and UA who come in at around 40 to 41 thousand operated a week.

How do we all feel about that ?

(that should give the fire a good old poke ! )
Flying is like sex - I've never had all I wanted but occasionally I've had all I can stand.
 
commavia
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 3:46 pm

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 124):
Stands to reason that once AA has merged with US.....AA will regain its 'rightful' position as the U.S.A's largest airline.

Doubtful, at least for a while. Parker is today doing the same song and dance that others have done in the last few years (no layoffs, no hub closures, "end-to-end networks," "this is all about growth," etc.) but the reality is that of course if/when AA and USAirways merge, there will be capacity reduction and network optimization, at least domestically. I foresee probably a 5-8% across-the-board capacity cut over the 2-3 years after a merger, weighted primarily at PHX, ORD and CLT - in that order.

Now, long-term, with or without a merger, I foresee AA growing, but near entirely internationally, where AA will soon finally have the right fleet, the right costs, the right union contracts, and the right alliance partnerships to strengthen and bolster their non-Latin America longhaul network. A merger would only - if marginally - enhance that growth potential.
 
mikey72
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 3:55 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 125):
Doubtful, at least for a while. Parker is today doing the same song and dance that others have done in the last few years (no layoffs, no hub closures, "end-to-end networks," "this is all about growth," etc.) but the reality is that of course if/when AA and USAirways merge, there will be capacity reduction and network optimization, at least domestically. I foresee probably a 5-8% across-the-board capacity cut over the 2-3 years after a merger, weighted primarily at PHX, ORD and CLT - in that order.

Now, long-term, with or without a merger, I foresee AA growing, but near entirely internationally, where AA will soon finally have the right fleet, the right costs, the right union contracts, and the right alliance partnerships to strengthen and bolster their non-Latin America longhaul network. A merger would only - if marginally - enhance that growth potential.

Yeah I know (was just stirring the pot)...maybe in time though.

Thanks for the reply...will be interesting.
Flying is like sex - I've never had all I wanted but occasionally I've had all I can stand.
 
JFKPurser
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 5:06 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 125):
Doubtful, at least for a while. Parker is today doing the same song and dance that others have done in the last few years (no layoffs, no hub closures, "end-to-end networks," "this is all about growth," etc.) but the reality is that of course if/when AA and USAirways merge, there will be capacity reduction and network optimization, at least domestically. I foresee probably a 5-8% across-the-board capacity cut over the 2-3 years after a merger, weighted primarily at PHX, ORD and CLT - in that order.

I think this is for the most part true. TWU layoffs will occur even under the US merge proposal. But the combined airline he would need the numbers of pilots and FAs to run the combined carrier in the near terms, so his promise of no flight crew layoffs at the the time of the merge or right after are realistic. There are obvious redundancies in all levels of management that will be evident, and certainly ground staff at stations where there is operational overlap. Don't forget too that there will be an early-out offered to AA FAs, and we can expect around 1500 to accept it. Parker indicated to APFA he would be willing to offer that to AFA US FAs in any forthcoming TA he sends out to them. So over time employee numbers will be coming down in many areas for a variety of reasons, but much of that really can't be done until after single carrier petition. But overall, this undermines the theory that the validity of this merge is torpedoed by the combined carrier having what has been bandied about here as more than 28,000 employees that UA or DL.
 
JFKPurser
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 5:11 pm

Quoting AAIL86 (Reply 119):
Mark my words - if US Airways does succeed in this takeover - I give you six months before you hate Doug Parker as much you the current regime.

Wow. This is the kind of cynicism one usually hears only from a union member. And you may end up being right. But I'm willing to bet my career that he might not be so bad. Because at this point, 55,000 or so AA employees pretty much agree with me that really can't get any worse.
 
commavia
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 5:26 pm

Quoting JFKPurser (Reply 127):
I think this is for the most part true. TWU layoffs will occur even under the US merge proposal. But the combined airline he would need the numbers of pilots and FAs to run the combined carrier in the near terms, so his promise of no flight crew layoffs at the the time of the merge or right after are realistic. There are obvious redundancies in all levels of management that will be evident, and certainly ground staff at stations where there is operational overlap. Don't forget too that there will be an early-out offered to AA FAs, and we can expect around 1500 to accept it. Parker indicated to APFA he would be willing to offer that to AFA US FAs in any forthcoming TA he sends out to them. So over time employee numbers will be coming down in many areas for a variety of reasons, but much of that really can't be done until after single carrier petition. But overall, this undermines the theory that the validity of this merge is torpedoed by the combined carrier having what has been bandied about here as more than 28,000 employees that UA or DL.

Obviously the TWU work groups - especially M&E - are screwed under either scenario. AA wants to outsource 40% of base maintenance, USAirways will likely outsource more (I believe he promised no layoffs for two years, after which essentially all bets are off) - either way it's bad. For the pilots and flight attendants, there are going to be fewer layoffs, but I am quite confident they would come - I do not think the "new AA" would need that many mainline flight crews, essentially since the APA has apparently given Parker a loser SCOPE as they refused for years to give AA.

But, of course, the AA unions aren't stupid - based on sheer numbers alone, they will effortlessly overwhelm each of the combined work groups. And since all the unions have sworn up and down to strict DOH, the AA union leaders know they are far less likely to be the ones laid off anyway - another brilliant masterstroke on the part of the AA unions. They have engineered a deal in which AA would merge with another airline, and in which their members will benefit from the greater stability and higher compensation that will bring, but in which that other airline's employees are likely to bear the brunt of the post-merger layoffs. Again - brilliant. I'm not being sarcastic or cynical in the slightest - you really do have to marvel at it.

Quoting JFKPurser (Reply 128):
Because at this point, 55,000 or so AA employees pretty much agree with me that really can't get any worse.

I'm not convinced that 55,000 union members all think the way you do. I know plenty, and plenty are just as suspect if not more so of Parker as they are of Horton. But either way, they may not have much of a choice, since their union leadership has basically decided which way they want to go. Elections matter.

This is all the more ironic, of course since - among oh-so-many reasons - AA's union members have, in general, benefited enormously from the path ("mismanagement," "greed," etc.) that AA took over the last 10 years - in the form of thousands of jobs not laid off/outsourced/shifted to regionals, and billions in pension contributions made as opposed to frozen/dumped, etc.. Over the same time, many USAirways union members' seem to have a slightly different perception than you of how Doug Parker has pursued and managed labor relations at his own airline, as opposed to the ones he's trying to merge with.

But, I suspect you are right in the sense that at this point it no longer matters. Many people have made up their minds one way or the other, and nothing is going to change it. Sad, but true.
 
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USAF336TFS
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 5:33 pm

Quoting JFKPurser (Reply 128):
But I'm willing to bet my career that he might not be so bad

Do you really want to do that? My understanding is that the flight crew unions from both US and America West still have not ironed out issues with Mr. Parker, years after the merger was complete.

Be careful of what you wish for my friend... You may just get it.
336th Tactical Fighter Squadron, 4th Fighter Wing, Seymour Johnson AFB
 
JFKPurser
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 5:42 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 129):
But, of course, the AA unions aren't stupid - based on sheer numbers alone, they will effortlessly overwhelm each of the combined work groups. And since all the unions have sworn up and down to strict DOH, the AA union leaders know they are far less likely to be the ones laid off anyway - another brilliant masterstroke on the part of the AA unions. They have engineered a deal in which AA would merge with another airline, and in which their members will benefit from the greater stability and higher compensation that will bring, but in which that other airline's employees are likely to bear the brunt of the post-merger layoffs. Again - brilliant. I'm not being sarcastic or cynical in the slightest - you really do have to marvel at it.

Well put and accurate.

Quoting commavia (Reply 129):
I'm not convinced that 55,000 union members all think the way you do. I know plenty, and plenty are just as suspect if not more so of Parker as they are of Horton. But either way, they may not have much of a choice, since their union leadership has basically decided which way they want to go. Elections matter.
AA employees -- certainly the unionized ones -- have never trusted any management team. So it is only natural that they would be suspicious of Parker, and certainly there are those who are -- including yours truly. Say what you want, but this is a totally clean sheet of paper. It is a chance at taking things in a whole new direction -- different from any one AMR unions, US unions and certainly and even Parker have ever headed in. Will it work? Who knows. There are certainly some issues to be worked out. No argument there. Is it worth a shot? You bet. Did these issues exist at NW/DL and UA/CO? Yep. They did or are still working through them. Comes with any merger territory. I have never had any illusions that Parker would be the end all of CEOs. A reincarnation of Juan Trippe or C.R. Smith, for example. And neither do the the lion's share of AMR's unionized workers. But even those who are suspicious of Parker will readily admit that his plan to take AA forward is the smartest one, and that the terms he is offering us are the most fair -- far more fair and equitable that what AMR has had on the table even in forthcoming TAs, and much closer to industry standard, because anything AMR has coughed up remains far below that -- for 6 years if ratified, which is just insane. And these are most peoples' primary concerns at this fork in the road.

Quoting commavia (Reply 129):
But, I suspect you are right in the sense that at this point it no longer matters. Many people have made up their minds one way or the other, and nothing is going to change it. Sad, but true.

True -- but not really sure why that is so sad. Is it sad that people realize they will have to sacrifice about half of what they would be required to under AMR's proposal by letting Parker take AMR in a completely new direction? Don't see that as being sad. For most of us, it's one of the few bright spots.

[Edited 2012-07-12 11:14:38]
 
JFKPurser
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 6:12 pm

Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 130):
Do you really want to do that?

Yes. I certainly do. No ifs ands or buts. Fingers crossed...

[Edited 2012-07-12 11:15:40]
 
JFKPurser
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 7:33 pm

Quoting SATexan (Reply 120):
While I don't doubt that merging with US will make AA more competative, I am curious to know how exactly does DP's plan result in an immediate return on investment?

The three banks on the UCC will expect to be paid much of their shares in cash. So DP will be writing them checks immediately, as would Horton under any standalone emergence strategy, or anyone else who would care to enter the fray at this point. As for unions, who make up three members of the UCC, the immediate return on their investment would be considered their first paychecks after the merge, which would be bigger under any US takeover than they stand to be under anything Horton is able to cobble together.

[Edited 2012-07-12 12:36:48]
 
phxa340
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 7:48 pm

Quoting JFKPurser (Reply 133):
So DP will be writing them checks immediately, as would Horton under any standalone emergence strategy, or anyone else who would care to enter the fray at this point.

US only has 1.9 billion cash on hand , so most likely much of this would be funded by stocks or a bond sale. AA actually has more cash on hand than US. I think DP is hoping to convince the creditors to take stock in the new company by selling the synergies and future profits they could retain in the new combined company.
 
JFKPurser
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 8:00 pm

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 134):
US only has 1.9 billion cash on hand , so most likely much of this would be funded by stocks or a bond sale. AA actually has more cash on hand than US. I think DP is hoping to convince the creditors to take stock in the new company by selling the synergies and future profits they could retain in the new combined company.

From what I am told, some of the entities the banks represent want to see their shares paid out in cash. DP has already spoken publicly of addressing that matter, and claims that there will be plenty of money to do so. There's also going to be about $6 billion cash sitting around in AMR's coffers by the time this transaction settles -- AMR's cash balance is increasing by the month since it's not servicing any debt. So combined there will be about $8 billion. These cash payments would be coming from the combined company. But that is not where all the money would be coming from. There has also been a lot of chatter on the inside that TPG is directly involved in this, not to mention published reports of these discussions a while back. TPG would theoretically pay these creditors' interests in cash in exchange for shares of the new company. I have heard that one of these NDAs is going out to TPG from AMR so that TPG may conduct its due diligence along with US.



[Edited 2012-07-12 13:15:40]
 
phxa340
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 8:18 pm

Quoting JFKPurser (Reply 135):
TPG would theoretically pay these creditors' interests in cash in exchange for shares of the new company. I have heard that one of these NDAs is going out to TPG from AMR so that TPG may conduct its due diligence along with US.

That would make a lot more sense since AA's cash is spoken for a least a lot of it and US just doesn't have much of it. AA was reported to enter BK with 4B and have gone through a bit of it , where did they get the extra 2b ?
 
JFKPurser
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 8:42 pm

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 136):
That would make a lot more sense since AA's cash is spoken for a least a lot of it and US just doesn't have much of it. AA was reported to enter BK with 4B and have gone through a bit of it , where did they get the extra 2b ?

AMR last reported $5.6 billion. They simply are not required to pay many of their bills while in BK. That's how it's working' out for them, because this is how the system works.
 
phxa340
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 9:21 pm

Quoting JFKPurser (Reply 137):

Your right, last reported was 4.9 billion of which most is in short term investments , however in the next few weeks the judge will start authorizing more payments to creditors so I am assuming this will start shrinking. It still doesn't negate that fact that US only is bringing $2B to the party which if this merger does happen , I think you are right in your assumption that an outside party will be bringing a lot of financing to make this transaction possible.
 
HPRamper
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 9:24 pm

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 138):
It still doesn't negate that fact that US only is bringing $2B to the party which if this merger does happen , I think you are right in your assumption that an outside party will be bringing a lot of financing to make this transaction possible.

As happened when HP bought US. HP didn't exactly have piles of cash kicking around. Outside financing accounted for the vast majority of the deal.
 
lucky777
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 9:30 pm

Quoting JFKPurser (Reply 135):
From what I am told, some of the entities the banks represent want to see their shares paid out in cash.

More shadowy figures running around in your head dropping you information no one else is priviliged to see yet again, huh? Your like the ultimate corporate mole LOL!!! Not that you would have any earthly clue about this, but a decent chunk of the $4.9 Billion in cash AA has on hand will soon be spoken for when the judge allows the bankruptcy to move forward and AA begins paying back monies to those its owed thru the court-supervised bankruptcy process. You truly are clueless, aren't you.

You essentially use airiners.net as a huge petri dish where you constantly throw outlandish claims about alleged inside info. and hope that eventually you'll guess correctly and therefore profess your greatness.
 
rwy04lga
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 9:37 pm

Quoting etops1 (Reply 23):
That is completely false

Not if it's one-third true!
Just accept that some days, you're the pigeon, and other days the statue
 
JFKPurser
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 9:54 pm

Quoting lucky777 (Reply 140):
More shadowy figures running around in your head dropping you information no one else is priviliged to see yet again, huh? Your like the ultimate corporate mole LOL!!! Not that you would have any earthly clue about this, but a decent chunk of the $4.9 Billion in cash AA has on hand will soon be spoken for when the judge allows the bankruptcy to move forward and AA begins paying back monies to those its owed thru the court-supervised bankruptcy process. You truly are clueless, aren't you.

I was replying to a point in which someone else suggested that DP would be paying these claims with US' $1.9 billion cash, and stating that any cash pile of the new AMR would be closer to $8 billion. I've never claimed to be an airline financier, nor did I specifically mean that the creditors were going to be paid exclusively from AMR's cash pile. I totally agree with you that it wouldn't be possible. But I would imagine that at least a portion of it might be coming from there -- you just said so yourself, unless I misunderstood you. So if you know more about this, please explain it so I understand it better rather than use my lack of understanding childishly against me simply to make me look bad. This is anything but a contest. And I don't post what I know here just so I can claim to know more about this than anyone else. But I do stand by my comment that DP said there would be plenty of cash available to pay these claims if necessary. He has not only said that publicly, but so have people with whom I speak regularly who are deeply embedded in this process, who confirm that financing of any kind will not be an issue, and that the likely source will be TPG. What information are you getting from your friends, specifically? Please share.

Quoting lucky777 (Reply 140):
You essentially use airiners.net as a huge petri dish where you constantly throw outlandish claims about alleged inside info. and hope that eventually you'll guess correctly and therefore profess your greatness.

Many of my claims do appear to be outlandish. That is, of course, until they prove themselves to be true. That makes me a pretty good guesser, wouldn't you say?



[Edited 2012-07-12 15:41:08]
 
etops1
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 10:53 pm

It just keeps getting better and better ... Meet a new AA creditor .

http://www.wfaa.com/news/business/US...f-American-Airlines-162268805.html
 
JFKPurser
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 10:55 pm

DP claiming today that US is now a creditor of AMR.

[Edited 2012-07-12 16:22:08]
 
milemaster
Posts: 1071
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 11:05 pm

Quoting etops1 (Reply 143):

It just keeps getting better and better ... Meet a new AA creditor .

Wow. I guess it's safe to say that there aren't any advanced merger talks between AA & US. Why buy a seat at the creditors table if the merger was already "in the bag"?
 
etops1
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 11:14 pm

Quoting milemaster (Reply 145):

It was never said that there were advanced merger talks between AA and US . US has been trying to get AA management to talk to them but no avail . US has just been making its case that a merger with AA is the best possible outcome for AA and it's employees . He hoped it old be a concentual deal but it seems that Horton is being very resistant so Parker has made the move to making this a hostile takeover .
 
ldvaviation
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 11:19 pm

Quoting JFKPurser (Reply 101):
The APA were originally supposed to be in on this as well, but they chickened out, went their own way and sent out a TA without this stipulation from Horton -- ostensibly they were fixated upon the part of their TA that stipulated the 13.5% of shares as if it were pornography. So yes -- the APFA did it, along with the TWU. And the remaining UCC members were fully behind it. But APFA and TWU totally laid down the line -- no NDAs -- no TAs sent out. End of story. This "request" occurred last Thursday. And here we are today.

So what?

Horton was going to have to do this anyway. You didn't force his hand. LOL. If you didn't get any equity in the new AA because you war so focused on this NDA issue, you fooled and cheated yourself. What a circus it must be to have to negotiate with the APFA?

Seems the pilots hedged their bets against the real possibility that AA emerges as a stand-alone. In fact, I would dare to say that their financial advisors have probably already told them that there is greater upside to their 13.5 percent stake if AA emerges as a stand-alone and then merges in a year or two with another airline. Plus, they've got more or less a guaranteed claim against the estate since as part of their TA, AA has agreed not to contest their claim.

Meanwhile, what does APFA have? They got their NDA. Just how much of the stand-alone AA will that NDA be worth? LOL.
 
phxa340
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 11:19 pm

Quoting milemaster (Reply 145):
Why buy a seat at the creditors table if the merger was already "in the bag"?

Some things to note. US bought $8M worth of unsecured debt , that hardly gets them any influence whatsoever. It goes to show though as milemaster pointed out that Horton and DP aren't just putting on a show , DP is literally using any plan and all resources to make this merger happen - he is frustrated.

US needs to learn a few tips from high school, in dating you have to pretend like you don't like the other person, then AA will come running !
 
JFKPurser
Posts: 298
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RE: US/AA Merger Update

Thu Jul 12, 2012 11:21 pm

Quoting LDVAviation (Reply 147):
Horton was going to have to do this anyway. You didn't force his hand.

He wasn't ready to do it yet. He had been dragging his feet for two months. LOL! The only reason he did it now -- a 180 degree change from his tune only a week ago was because APFA and TWU forced him to. LOL! He's being allowed to take credit for it so he doesn't look like a complete ass! LOL!



[Edited 2012-07-12 16:25:36]

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