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jfk777
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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Thu Jul 26, 2012 7:14 pm

Quoting qf002 (Reply 49):
Quoting jfk777 (Reply 42):What if QF operated from Sydney to Dubai and on the FRA, in Dubai QF could get feed from Emirates and give Emirates an extra frequency to FRA they so need. This may work folks !!!
Would QF be able to pick up local traffic on the DXB-FRA leg? If so, then it could work quite well

I would be nice if QF could pick up local Dubai pasengers but the real catch is pasengers flying into Dubai on Emirates and conecting to the QF flights to FRA or Sydney.
 
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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Thu Jul 26, 2012 7:18 pm

Quoting qf002 (Reply 49):
By that logic, EK should be focusing their efforts on forging alliances with AC, LH, AI etc long before they turn their focus to QF.

Opportunity knocks?

There is so much bad blood between Emirates and the Canadians, I can't think that one could happen in my lifetime.

Australia has indeed been extremely liberal with traffic rights to Emirates, but those are all rights to and from Australia.

I think intra-Australia is more valuable then you seem to do. I don't believe that most visitors to Australia (a few VFR, perhaps) only go to one city and I think the ability to carry pax beyond Oz is extremely attractive.

I also think there are profound subjective issues here, if they can become perceived "mates".

Quoting qf002 (Reply 49):
The issue I see is that a tie up would see EK sharing their success with QF. Why would EK want to allow the continued survival of one of their biggest competitors on a strongly performing route when they can achieve the same outcomes by themselves, without having the share the spoils?


Not that I believe any of this is cast in granite yet - Qantas could end up with Oman Air for all I know - but I don't see that Emirates could achieve the same outcomes on its own.

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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Thu Jul 26, 2012 7:29 pm

Quoting qf002 (Reply 49):
The Australian government has been extremely liberal with providing rights to UAE airlines, and has shown no desire to 'protect' QF in the same way as Canada and Germany, for example.

There really is not threat to EK, as clearly demonstrated by QF's whinging being met with increased EK, SQ, CX etc service.

IIRC Germany grants EK something like 40-50 weekly flights. That's more than ample A380 capacity. Germany is not open skies, but definitely wouldn't lump them with Canada (6 weekly for the whole country)
 
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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Thu Jul 26, 2012 9:13 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 42):
SFO is a city Qantas has had a long presence in since they first flew to the USA as Commonwealth Pacific Airways

It was British Commonwealth Pacific Airlines. As far as I recall BCPA was a completely separate airline with no connection with QF except for the fact that it was 50% owned by the Australian government (30% by New Zealand and 20% by the UK). It ceased to exist in 1954 and its route to SFO was taken over by QF.
 
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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Thu Jul 26, 2012 9:23 pm

Quoting mdavies06 (Reply 35):

Would that sort of thing not fall foul of competition law?
 
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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Thu Jul 26, 2012 9:52 pm

I could see, if rumours are true, QF doing SYD-DXB-BER. That way EK finally gets access to another German port, QF can codeshare with AB out or BER and FRA stays in QFs network via EK.
 
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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Thu Jul 26, 2012 10:31 pm

This actually makes sense to me. Put on your game theory hat.

1. Virtual alliance in that QF will not be exclusive.
2. EK is approaching saturation at SYD and MEL. So win for EK.
3. An incredible boost for EK on regional, European, and African routes.
4. QF could better utilize European (African?) bilateral rights in partnership with EK fill from DXB.   

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 5):
"virtual global hub" by entering into codeshare agreements with stronger players in the Middle East, Southeast Asia and the Americas.

Why not both. QF wins connections and forces the other two to bid against each other.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 10):
QF would route many of its flights into DXB instead of Singapore currently.

Now we know what the 787s will be used for.  
Quoting Sydscott (Reply 20):
Essentially it's still in discussion with a number of airlines about potential alliances one of which is Emirates. The other, given the media attention, is obviously Qatar.

I think it is to QF's advantage to talk with multiple partners.

Quoting meta (Reply 21):
Despite QF being a founding member of Oneworld, I wonder if they would consider leaving to start their own alliance with EK.

Why? There are multiple scenarios here.

1. QR is partner and QR joins 1W. This forces BA/IB to form a partnership with QR too.
2. EK is the exclusive mid-east partner, but BA keeps some for the current risk sharing agreement (in a new, possibly non-risk sharing form).
3. Both QR and EK partner with QF. This weakens QF's position, but also keeps EK from becoming too dominant while granting access to EK's two huge European bound hub waves (with a growing 3rd wave).

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 52):
IIRC Germany grants EK something like 40-50 weekly flights.

Germany grants EK access to 4 airports. EK is constrained to offering fares at or above LH's prices. However, Australia isn't competitive, so it would be how ever many flights EK wishes to fly to their four German airports: FRA, MUC, DUS, and HAM. EK is trying for more airports, but has been told "nein." EK may transfer selected airports (say trade HAM for BER, but the costs make it unlikely).

Quoting mariner (Reply 51):
I don't see that Emirates could achieve the same outcomes on its own.

It is win-win. QF would gain instant access to EK's strong hub banks. By avoiding connections that 'back-track,' it would bring in new customers. As you already noted, it would also help EK tremendously with not only domestic Australian feed, but would grant instant additional capacity.

I believe the value of the two as perceived 'mates' would be high. It

Quoting Julian773 (Reply 55):
I could see, if rumours are true, QF doing SYD-DXB-BER.

   I hadn't considered that aspect, but it is brilliant. QF could give up FRA (for a price) and add BER and possibly other destinations?


To all:
Serious question: How many German cities would QF does QF already have the bilateral rights to add? Would there be any additional benefit in Europe? e.g., added French city? More frequency to WIE? Additional rights to Switzerland? I'm speculating, but I would bet that QF is currently sitting on a wealth of under-utilized European bilateral rights!

I wouldn't rule out a partnership with QR, but DXB/EK has a better arrangement today and with concourse 3 opening up... there is room for a rapid expansion.   

I will follow this thread closely... fascinating possibilities.

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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Fri Jul 27, 2012 1:07 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 56):
I hadn't considered that aspect, but it is brilliant. QF could give up FRA (for a price) and add BER and possibly other destinations?

Let me ask the obvious question in relation to this............why on earth would QF give up flying to FRA, in order to link in with an airline that is significantly owned by the Partner of its arch enemy in its home market? Why would QF swap the commercial and business centre of Continental Europes best performing economy with a smaller Government Centre that doesn't have the corporate pull? Alliance traffic flows included this just doesn't make sense to me. It's not in QF's interest to fly to a smaller Corporate market, nor to support an Etihad aligned carrier. For that matter why would EK want to sell codeshare tickets on an Etihad aligned carrier?

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 56):
3. Both QR and EK partner with QF. This weakens QF's position, but also keeps EK from becoming too dominant while granting access to EK's two huge European bound hub waves (with a growing 3rd wave).

Or you could see QR join Oneworld while EK stays out. Lets not forget that, realistically, EK doesn't need the OW alliance but it would be handy for them to have QF in their court in Australia and, even more interestingly, it would be handy for them and QF to convince American to dump Etihad and start codesharing on EK. That would give EK a boost in two regions that it is targeting for growth with two airlines that have large frequent flyer bases for them to market to. It would also give AA a handy boost in their International network as well. In the mean time QR could cement itself into the Oneworld family with BA/IB.

The most impotant questions is where this leaves Malaysian Airlines. QF was focused on a Southeast Asian hub but under either an EK or a QR scenario this becomes redundant. This potentially makes it easier for Malaysian to enter Oneworld as the Southeast Asian Carrier without having to directly compete with QF long haul services.
 
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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Fri Jul 27, 2012 1:27 am

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 57):
Let me ask the obvious question in relation to this............why on earth would QF give up flying to FRA,

Money. QF has rights that they might (or might not) be using profitably. With the right revenue sharing, running the last leg for EK would be extremely profitable for them. I'm sure EK would have to give quite a bit to QF to give up FRA, but for *multiple* new German destinations for DXB it would be worth it.

QF would gain a few more European destination thanks to the EK feed.

I'm missing something in your question. Right now QF competes 'head to head' with SQ/LH to FRA and EK. By opening up new, albeit smaller markets, there is much more profit potential.

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 57):
For that matter why would EK want to sell codeshare tickets on an Etihad aligned carrier?

EK not EY. I do not see them being aligned but rather competitors. This is a way to put a cap on Eithad/VA growth.

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 57):
EK doesn't need the OW alliance but it would be handy for them to have QF in their court in Australia and, even more interestingly, it would be handy for them and QF to convince American to dump Etihad and start codesharing on EK.

The first part I agree with. AA code sharing with EK? I consider that unlikely. Then again, I *never* thought QF would seriously be doing some of the negotiations they are engaged in.
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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Fri Jul 27, 2012 3:00 am

Quoting theginge (Reply 54):
Would that sort of thing not fall foul of competition law?

Not necessarily, if they do it properly.

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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Fri Jul 27, 2012 3:49 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 58):
I'm missing something in your question

You're missing the second half which was prefaced around Berlin and Air Berlin.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 58):
EK not EY. I do not see them being aligned but rather competitors. This is a way to put a cap on Eithad/VA growth.

Air Berlin is part owned by Etihad. So if QF were, as posters here are suggesting, to move FRA service to BER for alliance traffic flows AND it partners up with EK, then a combined EK/QF would feed traffic onto an EY aligned and part owned carrier in Berlin. That doesn't make sense to me. Why give up FRA, which has survived all of the network cuts, to swap it for BER and a carrier in Air Berlin that is part owned and aligned with Etihad who is aligned with Virgin? For QF that makes no sense at all. Even if QF were to align with QR, flying to BER still makes no sense to me for the same reasons.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 58):
AA code sharing with EK? I consider that unlikely. Then again, I *never* thought QF would seriously be doing some of the negotiations they are engaged in.

AA shares with EY at the moment. If BA/IB were to get into bed with QR and QF were to get into bed with EK, then AA has two fairly compelling reasons to dump EY and re-align themselves. Out of the 2, EK would deliver more to the AA network in North America than QR currently does without really competing with AA on any of their current network. An EK aaliance really would give AA a push in the Middle East, India and Africa however if BA/IB were to go with QR instead, it would be interesting. Even QR joining the BA/IB/AA trans-atlantic alliance presents some compelling scenario's for AA connecting traffic that wants to avoid LHR.

Quoting mdavies06 (Reply 35):
I can't imagine BA and QF acting independently on this - it has to be an airline which both BA and QF are happy with.

Not necessarily. They each have different needs here.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 58):
I'm sure EK would have to give quite a bit to QF to give up FRA, but for *multiple* new German destinations for DXB it would be worth it

The other strategic thing to look at here is that SQ is currently EK's primary competitor in terms of foreign carriers into Australia. A fortified QF/JQ/EK hub at SIN competing against SQ in its own backyard could also be a compelling strategic reason to keep SIN intact and strengthen it. If you can weaken SQ, or at least make them turn their attention to their defending their home turf more, that in turns weakens VA and NZ which puts QF/EK or QF/QR in a better position. If you add Malaysian into the mix, well the possibilities are awesome. No matter which way you cut it a BA/IB/QR and QF/EK would both probably be wanting to co-operate with Malaysian both inside and outside the OW alliance. That would certainly help them in their battle against SQ and TG.
 
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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Fri Jul 27, 2012 4:35 am

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 60):
Quoting mdavies06 (Reply 35):
I can't imagine BA and QF acting independently on this - it has to be an airline which both BA and QF are happy with.

Not necessarily. They each have different needs here.

I disagree, IMHO their needs are very similar, ie to compete on the Kangaroo Route. What is different about that? Time has shown that their needs don't have to identical for QF & BA to cooperate.

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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Fri Jul 27, 2012 4:51 am

Quoting FRAspotter (Reply 44):
Could this maybe be (at least partially) due to the restrictions in regards to operating hours at FRA?

It's possible but I would've thought that, with AB having joined OWA, if QF was struggling with the times at FRA it could simply move the flight to TXL/BER or MUC??
 
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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Fri Jul 27, 2012 4:55 am

Quoting gemuser (Reply 61):
I disagree, IMHO their needs are very similar, ie to compete on the Kangaroo Route. What is different about that?

On the contrary, what QF needs is a partner with a hub in either Asia or the Middle East to both pick up and give 1 stop traffic to all points in Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. This allows QF pax to avoid LHR transfers and the significant backtrack that they involve. Due to this it means QF 1 stop services become competitive against its principal Asian rivals.

What does BA/IB Need in a Middle Eastern Partner? They need connectivity the other way and what QR provides BA is convenient 1 stop access to more emerging markets in Asia and Africa that BA doesn't currently fly to. This is what BA's stated strategy is for the LHR slots they got from the BMI acquistion and would allow them to more efficiently target higher growth markets while running and co-operating with QR on flights to Doha to cover other emerging markets.

So while there is some overlap, just the Kangaroo route is way too narrow when you look at this. QF needs connectivity and size. BA needs emerging markets access while efficiently using scarce LHR slots. Some overlap, but definitely differing needs.

Quoting gemuser (Reply 61):
Time has shown that their needs don't have to identical for QF & BA to cooperate.

I'd argue that this time it's different. Have a read of this;

 
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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Fri Jul 27, 2012 5:34 am

The more I think about this, whom QF partners with in the middle east could shape whom the dominant mid-east carrier is. If QF partners with EK, it is an instant *large* European network. A network QF would grow quickly. QF should do something to blunt the LH/SQ code share agreement. Partnering with QR would help. EK would make them a driving force.

EK has also shown a strong willingness to expand to Australia. Partnering would blunt the impact on QF and provide a tremendous profit opportunity for QF too.

I tried to find out the *exact* wording of the Germany/Australia Air Service Agreement, but I couldn't find the wording of the 1998 MoU which would drive the current allowed service. But gathering from the code-share rights being exercised by LH, I suspect QF could expand to 4 cities in Germany without issue. Thus, there is no need for QF to ditch FRA. QF should be able to add BER, STR, and then we could debate what the 4th airport hubbed from Dubai would be.

Also after thinking on this, QF should partner at *one* mid-east airport. I no longer think it would be wise to partner with QR and EK. They should pick one and only one mid-east partner. If EK will 'make space' for QF in Terminal 1 (and keep QF there after other airlines move), then this would work.

However, I do assume a certain number of 787s in QF's fleet. That shouldn't be an issue long term.  
Quoting Sydscott (Reply 60):
You're missing the second half which was prefaced around Berlin and Air Berlin.

But that is EY, not EK. EK and EY compete. You imply Abu Dhabi ownership of EK, which is owned by the sovereign wealth fund of Dubai. EK's 2012 expansion is not to the benefit of Etihad.

Two years ago Etihad would have been my #1 choice for OneWorld. Now? It hasn't grown enough to be competitive. If QF is to pick a new partner, EK would do them the most good (contract dependent, of course).

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 63):
So while there is some overlap, just the Kangaroo route is way too narrow when you look at this. QF needs connectivity and size. BA needs emerging markets access while efficiently using scarce LHR slots. Some overlap, but definitely differing needs.

For QF I agree. Hence, why the more I think about it, the less attractive QR becomes.
EY is too small, despite trying to be a OW partner already.
EK is the only one for scale.

While BA could benefit, I do not see them ready to partner with EK. QR or EY? Sure. But I suspect EK is too tough a competitor to strengthen. I think QF's lack of financial strength is driving some tough choices for them. In other words, I see EK having a very good chance of establishing a code share with QF.

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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Fri Jul 27, 2012 7:01 am

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 42):
but Emirates has a frequency problem to Germany. What if QF operated from Sydney to Dubai and on the FRA, in

EK does not have a frequency problem in Germany, they can operate additional flights, but only to 4 stations. They can also upgauge all services to A380.

As to the operating hours (QF was recetly hit by the curfew and a flight was delayed about 12 hours) QF would face a similar problem in BER or MUC. may be not as rigid as in FRA.
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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Fri Jul 27, 2012 7:42 am

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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Fri Jul 27, 2012 8:35 am

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 63):
what QF needs is a partner with a hub in either Asia or the Middle East to both pick up and give 1 stop traffic to all points in Europe, North Africa and the Middle East

True

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 63):
BA ...need connectivity the other way and what QR provides BA is convenient 1 stop access to more emerging markets in Asia and Africa that BA doesn't currently fly to.

True

I don't see any reason to consider this a conflict of interest. A joint approach for both needs simply makes the deal bigger, more comprehensive, has more synergies and hopefully makes the deal more profitable for all parties.

Not to say it couldn't founder on the details, but you never know until you try.

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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Fri Jul 27, 2012 8:36 am

Another point why moving the QF FRA flight to BER would not solve problems - there are no connections by air to HAM, BRE HAJ LEJ DRS from BER, of which HAM is the most important market. BER is really not the most optimal hub in Germany, with it's remote north east location.
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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Fri Jul 27, 2012 10:05 am

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 66):
Qantas has confirmed talks are in process.

Interesting part of that article is

Quote:
Emirates president Tim Clark told the Financial Times that the talks with Qantas were confined to a codeshare agreement under which the Australian carrier might rely on the Gulf airline to fly passengers to Dubai or beyond.

This is the opposite of many of the speculations being made about QF shuttling passengers to DXB to feed EK while EK drops passengers at DXB to board QF flights to Australia. The arrangement that appears to be in TC's mind might result in the current flow of passengers between QF and AY or AF, for example, being channelled through EK instead. The gain for QF is the ability to offer one-stop without backtracking, as has already been mentioned. The benefit for EK is extra seats sold, although EK currently purchase tickets for connecting passengers, with passengers being able to book flights to non-gateway airports on EK's web site.

Regarding the possible dropping of FRA: is this something that is likely to happen independently of any arrangement with EK (or another Gulf carrier) or is it being discussed as part of such an agreement?
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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Fri Jul 27, 2012 2:31 pm

Where there's smoke there's fire but I think the likelier outcome is that QR joins OneWorld and all of this is just jockeying for position. Take a read of this: http://airceo.com/?p=10966

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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Fri Jul 27, 2012 3:34 pm

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 68):
Another point why moving the QF FRA flight to BER would not solve problems - there are no connections by air to HAM, BRE HAJ LEJ DRS from BER, of which HAM is the most important market. BER is really not the most optimal hub in Germany, with it's remote north east location.

Preface, I have changed my opinion and believe QF will keep serving FRA. But let's look at this:

The Issue for QF is by only serving LHR and FRA, there are many more European cities not served. EK helps fill in some of the gap. For example, HAM. I'm not sure what they would do for HAJ, LEJ, and DRS. I propose QF would fly to BER and STG, mostly paid for with EK supplied connecting traffic.    Those two markets should be far more valuable to QF than FRA.

FRA will not be dropped by EK. QF would maintain enough connectivity with EK up-gauging to the A380. Perhaps 2X/day A380. I question if FRA is profitable for QF today during the European economic crisis.

QF would also make money carrying passengers to markets that EK has maxed out their bilateral rights. For example, another flight to WIE. QF is sitting on an unused treasure trove of European air service rights. Only by partnering with EK could they rapidly exercise those rights profitably. QR is just not of the scale of EK. Bad for making money in a joint venture but good if one wants to limit the competition.

To partner with QR would also require QR moving over to the new-DOH airport faster than the current plan. It is possible though...

Quoting gemuser (Reply 67):
A joint approach for both needs simply makes the deal bigger, more comprehensive, has more synergies and hopefully makes the deal more profitable for all parties.

   I see tremendous benefit for QF and EK if this goes through.

Quoting YOWza (Reply 70):
Where there's smoke there's fire but I think the likelier outcome is that QR joins OneWorld and all of this is just jockeying for position.

Maybe. The issue is QR does not have the hub waves of EK. EK provides tremendous instant excellent connectivity. While much of what I wrote will work with QR, the amount of money being made would be greater with EK due to the larger scale of EK and the larger number of other airlines hubbing at DXB.

But OW could go for an alliance partner. It will be interesting to see how this goes.

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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Fri Jul 27, 2012 3:46 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 71):
I propose QF would fly to BER and STG, mostly paid for with EK supplied connecting traffic. Those two markets should be far more valuable to QF than FRA.

Do you mean STR?
Even though there is probably more biz traffic to STR than to BER, both cities have far less than FRA. And STR is reachable by train or car in less than 2 hours from FRA.
There is no reason for QF to drop FRA in favor of another German city. AB has dramatically less feeder flights in BER than LH in FRA. And even them being in the same alliance, QF has a pretty good SPA with LH. And the problem with AB being partly owned by EY, would prevent any involvement from EK in such a scenario.

But if they are not earning any money on the SYD-SIN-FRA flights, of course they might drop them.
 
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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Fri Jul 27, 2012 3:48 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 71):
The issue is QR does not have the hub waves of EK.

It's not quite as well oiled or defined as EK at DXB but there are definite waves/banks of QR flights at DOH. No doubt about it...

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 71):
EK provides tremendous instant excellent connectivity.

And QR does not? In terms of covering Europe, the Middle East and North Africa QR is right up there with EK in terms of destinations and will likely eclipse them as the 787s come on board.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 71):
the amount of money being made would be greater with EK due to the larger scale of EK

Again this is something that's changing. Putting your QF hat on, wouldn't you prefer to take the lion's share of PAX out of SYD and let QR grow MEL and PER? It seems far more balanced. It allows QF to get their revenues up but still throw their weight around a bit.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 71):
the larger number of other airlines hubbing at DXB.

I'm sorry but apart from EK and FZ, who really hubs at DXB? Jazeera were persuaded to stop their hub there so that leave who exactly?

This is not a QF decision alone. A decision this size will be taken after consulting with alliance members. This leads me to believe QR is the front runner.

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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Fri Jul 27, 2012 4:19 pm

Quoting YOWza (Reply 73):
Putting your QF hat on, wouldn't you prefer to take the lion's share of PAX out of SYD and let QR grow MEL and PER? It seems far more balanced. It allows QF to get their revenues up but still throw their weight around a bit.

     Given Tim Clark's comments on the potential relationship, it's clear that any deal with EK would be significantly less involved than most of us think it should be. QR offers the opportunity for QF to have the level of involvement that most of us seem to be advocating for... The opportunity exists for QF to be a part of building a new network between Australia and Europe, rather than just offering access to an existing one. More work now (and more risk), but massively better outcomes in the long term.

QR makes a billion times more sense to me as a QF partner...
 
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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Fri Jul 27, 2012 4:50 pm

Quoting fraT (Reply 72):
Do you mean STR?

oops. Yes.

Quoting fraT (Reply 72):
There is no reason for QF to drop FRA in favor of another German city.

Agreed. I changed my opinion. My interpretation is QF could serve up to 4 German cities. Thus FRA, BER, STR, and ???.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 74):
Given Tim Clark's comments on the potential relationship, it's clear that any deal with EK would be significantly less involved than most of us think it should be. QR offers the opportunity for QF to have the level of involvement that most of us seem to be advocating for...

Agreed. But EK has the connections. Which is more important for QF? Long term control or short term profit?

I could see Tim Clark being a little more flexible due to the new connections QF could quickly bring to the table. That would be a very interesting negotiation to sit in on. I hope Al Baker realizes he had better make a very attractive offer to QF. I see far more money to be made by QF with EK. However, QR presents less of a threat longer term.   

I do not see any of the other proposed partners for QF working on their own. QF *needs* a mid-east partner. Well... an Indian partner would be even better, but we can thank the GoI for setting up conditions that make that a non-starter. Imagine a 9W/QF/BA link up at DEL.    But the rights are not there and thus it will not happen. My reading of the German/Australian bilateral is that QF's hubbing is allowed from Singapore/Malasia/Indonesia/Thailand, the mid-east, HKG, and the mid-east.

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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Fri Jul 27, 2012 5:09 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 75):
Agreed. But EK has the connections. Which is more important for QF? Long term control or short term profit?
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 75):
I see far more money to be made by QF with EK. However, QR presents less of a threat longer term.

Given other recent moves and comments from the airline, I'd say that they are looking long term with this. They have to be, because the market is only going to get denser and more ruthless in the future.

In any case, I don't see much short term profit for QF in a codeshare deal with EK. Such a deal would be virtually identical to the VA-EY tie up, and would be designed (at least in part) to maintain corporate loyalty by creating a network that is more competitive against SQ etc.

Airlines don't tend to make much off passing passengers to another airline through codesharing, so they are rarely used to try and generate significant revenue/profit on the routes they cover. They are used to extend network reach and generate revenue/profit in other areas of the business.

QF will ultimately make much more money actually carrying plane loads of passengers to the Middle East to connect into major departure banks across Europe/North Africa than they will sending those passengers to a flight operated by another airline.

QR offers that opportunity, EK doesn't.
 
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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Fri Jul 27, 2012 8:06 pm

Quoting qf002 (Reply 76):
I'd say that they are looking long term with this. They have to be, because the market is only going to get denser and more ruthless in the future.

Agreed. But I was talking power, not money for EK not being as good long term. If EK and QF partner, it takes QF's most dangerous competitor and turns them into a 'Frenamie.' QR only has good long term potential if they shake off some of their tendencies and become a true numbers run corporation.

If QR doesn't adapt faster, the danger is that a solo EK adapts quicker than a combined QF/QR/BA/IB/AB OneWorld super hub and we see QF/QR over-run by EK and probably eventually TK on the Europe to Australia routes.

For in my thinking, this isn't just about QR and EK. *A is shifting and TK is the rising star. When TK starts operating out of the proposed 5-runway airport, they will be a very tough competitor. In choosing partners to compete with the new-IST based TK, I see EK doing far better than QR. I see EY having a very tough time competing versus TK in a new airport no matter whom they partner with.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 76):
I don't see much short term profit for QF in a codeshare deal with EK. Such a deal would be virtually identical to the VA-EY tie up

This I disagree with. Putting on my 'game theory' hat, QF would only enter into an agreement with EK under very different terms. With the 'step function' change in connections to Europe, I see a quick jump in revenue for QF.

QR does not have good hubbing banks like EK does. Now, I'd have to see an analysis, but I do not see QR suddenly providing multi-dozens of new destinations within 2.5 hour connection times as EK could. I know QR has a big hub, but there connections are often not as convenient. IMHO, QR needs to imitate the EK hubbing banks, but will be unable to do so until they move into their 'new-DOH' airport. IMHO, QR will also move too slowly to be a full competitor to EK. EK too often has the 'first mover advantage.'

Quoting qf002 (Reply 76):
QF will ultimately make much more money actually carrying plane loads of passengers to the Middle East to connect into major departure banks across Europe/North Africa than they will sending those passengers to a flight operated by another airline.

Why wouldn't EK offer that opportunity? I do not see QF giving up LHR. With EK feed, QF must have numerous bilateral rights to set up hubbing from Australia/SE Asia to Europe and Africa via DXB or DOH. EK has shown a tendency to partner (and compete) with anyone. A QF/EK partnerships gains EK more seats to Europe and QF a mid-east hub. Win-win. Some QF passengers fly into DXB on QF and out on DXB but also the other way around. BER and STR are the most obvious, but there must be a large number of other possibilities for QF too.

But hey, I could be wrong. But what I know is QF must dramatically change their strategy to make money. A mid-East (or India based) hub is a great way to do that.

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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Fri Jul 27, 2012 8:27 pm

Quoting qf002 (Reply 76):
QR offers that opportunity, EK doesn't.

Unless I;m misreading you, I don't really see the difference. Even if it were to be Oman Air (I jest, but only in part) the same rule applies - another airline would be carrying the Qantas pax onwards from the ME hub.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 77):
But what I know is QF must dramatically change their strategy to make money. A mid-East (or India based) hub is a great way to do that.

  

I think what is crucial here is that Qantas is grasping the nettle - a hub not in Australia, but within a non-stop flight to Europe.

It's the biggie, the really, really tough one and I imagine it will be a rocky road for some time to come. But if Joyce can pull it off, more power to him.

If it is to be "mateship" with a Middle Eastern carrier, it neutralises at least one of the (populist/unionist) arguments against him - the Asianisation of Qantas.

mariner

[Edited 2012-07-27 13:45:52]
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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Sat Jul 28, 2012 3:22 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 77):
QR does not have good hubbing banks like EK does. Now, I'd have to see an analysis, but I do not see QR suddenly providing multi-dozens of new destinations within 2.5 hour connection times as EK could. I know QR has a big hub, but there connections are often not as convenient. IMHO, QR needs to imitate the EK hubbing banks, but will be unable to do so until they move into their 'new-DOH' airport. IMHO, QR will also move too slowly to be a full competitor to EK. EK too often has the 'first mover advantage.'

The point about connection is a fair one because my guess is if QF really is to start using its own metal to fly to the ME then the flight schedule will resemble (taking SYD as an example) EK413 outbound (dep 2110, arr 0540) with a return timing similar to EK410 (dep 1015, arr 0605). This gives maximum connectivity on both ends and keep the aircraft downtime to a minimum - 4.5 hours in this case. Under this scheduling the outbound 'EK413' connects to EK's primary Europe bank of the day and the inbound 'EK410' connects to EK's secondary Europe bank of the day. (There is a second alternative of arriving into DXB around midnight and leaving DXB just after midnight. However the inbound leg into SYD will arrive late at night which is a problem for curfew and connections into other Australian cities, a problem with the current EK414).

The key difference between QR and EK here is on the secondary Europe bank which connects to the inbound to SYD. If I use today's flight movement as a guide, QR has 6 European arrivals whilst EK has 19, so there is quite a big difference. Obviously both airlines are still growing but there is a fair distance between the two.
 
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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:21 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 71):
to BER and STG, mostly paid for with EK supplied connecting traffic. Those two markets should be far more valuable to QF than FRA.

QF operates one stop via SIN, actually one of the quickes connections from Europe to OZ, SIN serves all Australia.

That would have to be given up when QF operates SYD-DXB-FRA, not really a solution that makes any sense. FRA serves all domestic and prctically all of Europe by air connection, far more than DXB and EK can ever offer. QF interlines with LH, The pnly alternate airport other than FRA would be DUS which offers a similar range of connecting cities if AB and LH combined, but the runway is too short for a fully loaded 744 to SIN.


Quoting fraT (Reply 72):
And STR is reachable by train or car in less than 2 hours from FRA.

73 minutes by ICE train from FRA airport station
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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Sat Jul 28, 2012 7:05 am

It's just my opinion that if an EK/QF partnership does emerge and QF continues moving outside it's alliance partners (BA,CX,JL) for European connections QF longhaul international will ultimately collapse. (BA can serve Australia via SIN, CX via HKG, MH via KUL, UL via CMB, and JL via TYO) covering just about all of Asia with one stop or less). Heck AA can even start service to Australia with it's 77Ws.

Once again I'm completely dismayed by the lack cooperation between QF and CX on an alliance level. The fact that QF is looking to develop ties with EK instead of deepening ties with CX and using HKG as a connecting hub for not only Europe but also China is absolutely astonishing.
 
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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Sat Jul 28, 2012 8:17 am

Would this be the thin end of the wedge though ?

Ek is huge.

How do they strike the right balance for both ?

Will QF simply become an EK feeder in DXB and if it does how much of Australia 'on its own metal' will EK want to give up ?
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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Sat Jul 28, 2012 8:34 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 77):
Some QF passengers fly into DXB on QF and out on DXB but also the other way around. BER and STR are the most obvious, but there must be a large number of other possibilities for QF too.

I think you are overestimating BER as well as STR.

Both cities are already being served by QR. TXL daily with A320, sometimes A330 and STR not daily with A330. Besides this QR is offereing flights via MUC by interlining with LH (a hop of 25 minutes if its a Dash 8 otherwise less). I don't think that there is so much demand to fill additional QF metal. Not to forget that AB is offering connections to Down Under very well via AUH. Not to mention the passengers which prefer to connect via LHR (OW), CDG (ST) and FRA/MUC (*A). From this kind of passengers you could only count on the OW-fans. I don't think there is enough feed.

Same applies for HAM, but this is already being served by EK.

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 80):
The pnly alternate airport other than FRA would be DUS which offers a similar range of connecting cities if AB and LH combined, but the runway is too short for a fully loaded 744 to SIN.

Exactly.

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 80):
73 minutes by ICE train from FRA airport station

There are also some flights on offer by LH.
 
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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Sat Jul 28, 2012 9:02 am

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 82):
Will QF simply become an EK feeder in DXB and if it does how much of Australia 'on its own metal' will EK want to give up ?

I doubt EK would give up any of Australia. QF may fly to DXB most likely rerouting its LHR services through there but then BNE, PER etc are alot futher from DXB compared to SIN taking 2 aircraft instead of 1 for a daily service.

QF don't have enough aircraft to reinstate more LHR services and won't for some time.
 
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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Sat Jul 28, 2012 10:49 am

Quoting SQ22 (Reply 83):
There are also some flights on offer by LH.

yes, but that was not the question. If you live on the Filders you might be quicker flying, if you live around the city or "Halbhoehe" the ICE train is the better choice.

In any case, for QF there is no real alternate to FRA, they either stay or give up the continent completely. Teaming up with EK would mean the end of being a long haul carrier for QF. No a smart move but may be inevitable.
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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Sat Jul 28, 2012 11:03 am

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 85):
Teaming up with EK would mean the end of being a long haul carrier for QF. No a smart move but may be inevitable.

How so? USA is long haul from Australia and so is South America. I'd say Japan is long haul from Australia. And LHR is certainly long haul from Australia.

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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Sat Jul 28, 2012 11:54 am

It's such a shame that Qantas are wasting all that money shipping 744ER spare parts to BA in Frankfurt if they're gonna dump FRA.
 
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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Sat Jul 28, 2012 12:30 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 77):
Putting on my 'game theory' hat, QF would only enter into an agreement with EK under very different terms. With the 'step function' change in connections to Europe, I see a quick jump in revenue for QF.
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 77):
Why wouldn't EK offer that opportunity?
Quoting mariner (Reply 78):
Unless I;m misreading you, I don't really see the difference.

From the various reports going around, QF would only fly their existing LHR services through DXB rather than opening any decent number of flights between Australia and DXB.

Because EK is already such a dominant player in the Australia-DXB sectors, there is very little room for QF enter the market and provide any of their own services to DXB. Codesharing on EK's flights isn't going to increase their revenues or profits by much.

QF would only receive a share in the profits generated by the relationship beyond the profits that both airlines are already making on their existing services. The relationship isn't going to suddenly trigger expansion for EK/QF, especially if the pair have to cover the loss of BA's support.

Because QR is at a much earlier stage in their development in this market, QF has a much greater opportunity to provide their own services out of Australia as part of a deal.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 77):
But hey, I could be wrong.

As could all of us... As interesting as it is to speculate/discuss, it's impossible to know what QF is working towards.

Other things I was thinking about:

- QF might want to completely leave the European market, and is gradually stepping down services while also putting in place plans to retain Europe on the network map. There's a very good chance (IMO) that they simply cannot make money flying to Europe with their own metal.

- QF might actually be simply looking to remove BA from the equation. Flying two daily full A380 flights to Europe will probably generate more profit for them than sharing the profits of 2 daily A380's and 2 daily 744's with BA. EK then acts as the new source for connections outside QF's direct network to maintain the reach of the network without BA's support...
 
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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Sat Jul 28, 2012 1:27 pm

Quoting charliecossie (Reply 87):

It's such a shame that Qantas are wasting all that money shipping 744ER spare parts to BA in Frankfurt if they're gonna dump FRA.


They don't do that  
Apart from the engines on the ERs BA would have their own spare parts from their fleet of 55 744s.

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 81):
. Heck AA can even start service to Australia with it's 77Ws.

An SYD-DFW non-stop both ways on the 77W would put QFs 744 service to bed as it would directly feed AAs own network at DFW. Unless of course they both codeshare.  
 
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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Sat Jul 28, 2012 2:05 pm

Quoting BA174 (Reply 89):
They don't do that
Apart from the engines on the ERs BA would have their own spare parts from their fleet of 55 744s.

If you say so.

PS I've just booked 170 kg of Qantas 744ER spares into the BA store in Frankfurt.

PPS Frankfurt is 450 miles from London.
 
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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Sat Jul 28, 2012 7:17 pm

Quoting qf002 (Reply 88):
From the various reports going around, QF would only fly their existing LHR services through DXB rather than opening any decent number of flights between Australia and DXB.

The Australian Financial Review doesn't say "all" their SIN-LHR services - it says "many":

http://afr.com/p/national/qantas_for...mirates_tie_GKZJYgOs7oRkwZIgeI6VQJ

"Qantas Airways would give up its last European port and route many of its London flights through Dubai instead of Singapore under a proposed tie-up with the world’s largest international airline, Emirates."

Without knowing the terms of the deal (because there isn't one yet) I'd raise an eyebrow if Qantas didn't keep at least one LHR service through SIN.

I don't see Qantas as a supplicant here. I think Qantas is holding quite a juicy plum.

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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Sat Jul 28, 2012 10:23 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 91):
I don't see Qantas as a supplicant here. I think Qantas is holding quite a juicy plum.

   QF could bring quite a bit to the table for EK. I'm looking at bilaterals and it looks like QF is sitting on quite a few where they can pick up passengers in Europe and connect in the mid-east. However, some limit connections to SE Asia, Australia, and New Zealand. (With different definitions of what is SE Asia.) I would have to see the actual diplomatic documents (vs. the summaries) to know for sure. But it looks as if QF could offer enough to make it worth while for EK to give them a great deal.

Of course, the same terms could be provided by QR. However, EK has a wee bit larger connectivity to offer QF.

From your link:
"More than one-quarter of Qantas passengers flying into Heathrow transfer to the British flag carrier to back track into Europe, traffic that would dry up instantly with the start of the Emirates code share."
This I highly disagree with. Why would *all* of the traffic dry up? If their destination is served by EK, then there is no back-tracking. For those destinations traffic should increase.


Side note:
I prefer a mid-east partner for QF as that opens up their Asian routes.   

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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Sat Jul 28, 2012 10:42 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 92):
Of course, the same terms could be provided by QR. However, EK has a wee bit larger connectivity to offer QF.

  

I don't mind if it is Emirates or Qatar or - ultimately - Oman Air. The key to this seems (to me) to be location, location, location rather than just connectivity and in terms of onward flights to London I partly agree with qf002 - Qatar (or even Oman!) might be a better bet for Qantas.

There is no denying that power of (Emirates) connectivity, but I don't care which it is. Both (all?) have strong points in their favour, and location is, for me, paramount. I never quite understood the initial leanings to SIN or KUL, which always seemed to me to be (a) too politically difficult and (b) not the ideal location.

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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Sat Jul 28, 2012 11:22 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 93):
There is no denying that power of (Emirates) connectivity, but I don't care which it is. Both (all?) have strong points in their favour, and location is, for me, paramount.

In the long run, I expect most customers will agree. IMHO DEL would be an even better location, but the GoI has made sure it isn't on the table.  

So that said, QF should be able to make almost any mid-east location work. I just see a difference in connectivity which could impact QF's profit. I'm also starting to become a little obsessed with the idea that QF could feed both themselves and the EK fleet due to their latent bilateral rights on both sides of DXB.   

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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Sun Jul 29, 2012 3:00 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 94):
I'm also starting to become a little obsessed with the idea that QF could feed both themselves and the EK fleet due to their latent bilateral rights on both sides of DXB.

That's a good point, IF QF have rights EK doesn't or that have a limitation that QF could avoid. I don't remember specifics, but most of those bi-laterals were designed to support 1, 2 or 3 long haul transits per week, so maybe not so favorable.

So far nobody has mentioned BAH & GF. For many years QF was one of the biggest players in BAH and could give GF quite a boost, possibly more profitable than QR.

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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Sun Jul 29, 2012 3:27 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 91):
The Australian Financial Review doesn't say "all" their SIN-LHR services - it says "many":

Given that QF only operate 2 daily flights via SIN to LHR, many seems a bit of a stretch  

Operating the SYD flight via DXB and the MEL service via SIN could give broader options, with EK servicing other sectors to DXB (BNE, PER, ADL). It would be interesting though if EK were to change its current flights to suit this. For example, could it look to cut its 3rd daily SYD flight in place of QF's A380 flight?

I think the biggest question here is around BA's reaction, and whether it will pull out of Australia without the JV the 2 carriers operate.

[Edited 2012-07-28 20:54:27]
 
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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Sun Jul 29, 2012 3:35 am

Quoting gemuser (Reply 95):
So far nobody has mentioned BAH & GF. For many years QF was one of the biggest players in BAH and could give GF quite a boost, possibly more profitable than QR.

If it wasn't for the 'Arab Spring,' I would 100% agree with you. However, I believe the reports of repression might not be the best for marketing purposes...

It will be interesting.

I believe this will dramatically improve QF's RASM and slightly improve their CASM whichever mid-east partner they pick. I'm excited about their strategy change.

Quoting gemuser (Reply 95):
IF QF have rights EK doesn't or that have a limitation that QF could avoid. I don't remember specifics, but most of those bi-laterals were designed to support 1, 2 or 3 long haul transits per week, so maybe not so favorable.

True. But some are for higher frequencies.    I'd have to go through in detail to know the numbers, but I'm certain a team at QF knows.

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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Sun Jul 29, 2012 3:57 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 97):
If it wasn't for the 'Arab Spring,' I would 100% agree with you. However, I believe the reports of repression might not be the best for marketing purposes...

Very true. Add in that the BAH O&D market would not be huge either, or the connection opportunities anywhere near as comprehensive. GF has become a tiny player these days, with a mainly limited regional network.

DXB is a bigger drawing tourist destination and has the flight connections for carriers to benefit from.
 
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RE: Reports QF To Ditch FRA & Codeshare With EK

Sun Jul 29, 2012 4:10 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 94):
In the long run, I expect most customers will agree. IMHO DEL would be an even better location, but the GoI has made sure it isn't on the table.


I think the beauty of the (any) Gulf States hub is the proximity to Europe. It allows for the greatest concentration of connecting pax from to Europe (and north Africa) to be fed through to pretty much everywhere east of there, including India.

Once upon a time - not so very long ago - Dubai was the natural crossroads from Europe to the East - every airline stopped there because they had to refuel. Then the 747-400 came along and they all gave Dubai the two finger salute.

It left the way wide open for Emirates. No one should be surprised.

Remains the problem of a hub for Australis to Asia (north of Australia), but I think there are some much easier answers to that. They have to put all those A320's somewhere.

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 96):
Given that QF only operate 2 daily flights via SIN to LHR, many seems a bit of a stretch  

I think they're using a somewhat longer time frame than a day. Real people think differently from airline folk.  

mariner

[Edited 2012-07-28 21:20:55]
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Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos