While EADS is sticking to its 30-delivery target for 2012, CEO Tom Enders says they do not expect to make similar number of deliveries in 2013 as customers are reluctant to take aircraft until a definitive wing repair solution is available in 2014.
He also cast doubt on the idea of Airbus securing 30 orders for the model this year, saying airlines are tempted to wait longer to see how the wing issue is resolved.
Story:
http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/27/eads-a-idINWEA805620120727
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Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
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RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
I'm a bit worried Airbus won't make 30 deliveries this year...
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- PlanesNTrains
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RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
Well, that's got to sting a little bit for Airbus. I can't imagine either manufacturer is thrilled about the status of their new programs right now. Nor the airines.
However, it's a great time to be a A330/77W manufacturer.
-Dave
However, it's a great time to be a A330/77W manufacturer.
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RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
"Enders said Airbus expected to have European safety authority approval for its proposed solution to the cracked rib feet or brackets inside the A380's wings within weeks."
If this is the case, why is it going to take a whole year before new orders might be expected. And the way the airlines are reacting, it appears the wing crack problem is a bigger matter than has been suggested in the past.
If this is the case, why is it going to take a whole year before new orders might be expected. And the way the airlines are reacting, it appears the wing crack problem is a bigger matter than has been suggested in the past.
Dare to dream; dream big!
RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
| Quoting ebj1248650 (Reply 3): why is it going to take a whole year before new orders might be expected. |
For the same reason the A330 and 77W are still selling and the A350 and B787 aren't - delivery slots. Any airline ordering the A380 or the A350 and 787 today will have to wait at least five years before they can get their hands on them. Also, throw in the economic turmoil and the lack of financing and you'll find airlines are hesitant to tie in capital for deposits.
Even Boeing is finding it difficult to get new 777 sales:
Boeing Says 777 Backlog Damps Sales as Airlines Shun Wait
Whatever happened to Leon Trotsky?
RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
| Quoting ebj1248650 (Reply 3): If this is the case, why is it going to take a whole year before new orders might be expected. And the way the airlines are reacting, it appears the wing crack problem is a bigger matter than has been suggested in the past |
from the airlines point of view, it's better to wait till the problem is completly solved. You wont get any A380 earlier anyway. Why take a (small) gamble if you have the time enough to await the final solution.
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- frmrCapCadet
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RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
Perhaps someone can summarize what a 380 taken today will experience in shutdowns for repairs before its first major overhaul. Is Airbus planning on doing the temporary repairs before delivery? And is Airbus likely to have a crew that can do the permanent repairs a lot quicker? Were they to have a specially trained and experienced crew how quickly might it be done? If permanent repairs were to take only a week, and that by appointment this could move to a non-issue.
Does an airline have to take a plane which has this much unplanned maintainance? Obviously if they need a 380 they will take it, but what if they are no unsure of the business case?
Does an airline have to take a plane which has this much unplanned maintainance? Obviously if they need a 380 they will take it, but what if they are no unsure of the business case?
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
According to this story its takes 30,000 man hours (8-weeks) for the repair retrofit on existing frames.
Airbus says due to 10-month lead time to incorporate modifications into the production line, it will not be until early 2014 that deliveries have the corrected wing structure.
A380 wing-cracks to require eight-week repair downtime
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...eight-week-repair-downtime-372813/
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Airbus says due to 10-month lead time to incorporate modifications into the production line, it will not be until early 2014 that deliveries have the corrected wing structure.
A380 wing-cracks to require eight-week repair downtime
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...eight-week-repair-downtime-372813/
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RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
| Quoting LAXintl (Reply 7): A380 wing-cracks to require eight-week repair downtime |
It seems the magnitude of this issue just keeps growing.
Where do you find an extra 30,000 man hours of skilled labor per frame to make the repairs?
It must be a huge headache for those at TLS.
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lightsaber
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RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
| Quoting Stitch (Reply 1): I'm a bit worried Airbus won't make 30 deliveries this year... |
Ditto. And for 2013.
| Quoting LAXintl (Reply 7): According to this story its takes 30,000 man hours (8-weeks) for the repair retrofit on existing frames. Airbus says due to 10-month lead time to incorporate modifications into the production line, it will not be until early 2014 that deliveries have the corrected wing structure. |
I wouldn't order an A380 and I think the type has amazing economics.
Not until there is a fix and strong faith in delivery times. It is too much risk for an airline to order as far out as required now. Now when one is looking at a D-check of labor for the temporary fix and another for the permanent. Since the fix has to currently happen twice, the downtime alone gets expensive.
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RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
Perhaps the lack of new orders has nothing to do with wing problems. Maybe it is because no airline has yet made a profit out of A380 operations. Any news on whether A380 operations have been profitable would be welcome.
RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
| Quoting Sheridan125 (Reply 10): Perhaps the lack of new orders has nothing to do with wing problems. |
True, they didn't seem to be getting very many new orders even before the wing problems were announced.
RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
I used to be upset that FedEx did not take delivery of their A380F order, but it looks like they dodge a bullet, but still I believe the A380 will become a success. It took the 747 until the late 80's to really become a success, and it first flight was in the late 60's.
RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
| Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 2): Well, that's got to sting a little bit for Airbus. I can't imagine either manufacturer is thrilled about the status of their new programs right now. Nor the airines. |
Especially after the new announced delays over the A-350 program on Friday....just added a little fuel to that fire.
RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
I have a question. To complete the fix of the wing cost the frame 30,000 man hours or 8-weeks of downtime. Does Airbus provide the airlines replacement planes (I know it would not be an 380, but some mix of 330's or 340's) or does the airline just lose the profit of that plane. If so, will the airlines seek compensation for the problems? Thank you for any insight.
RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
Most airlines that intend to order the A380 have already and many have already placed second orders. Tbere are some that could order the Whale Jet like Turkish, Air India, SAA, JAL and ANA. Cathay Pacific seems to like the A350-1000 as its next flagship.
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- PlanesNTrains
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RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
| Quoting 747400sp (Reply 14): Well I bet Boeing, is having a feild day right now. |
Had the 787 roll out gone smooth, perhaps. As it is, they are likely just thankful that it isn't their frame with this problem, and they also know that the future could bring something similar - or worse. If anything they are breathing a sigh of relief that the bullet wizzed past them this time.
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RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
| Quoting jfk777 (Reply 17): Most airlines that intend to order the A380 have already and many have already placed second orders. Tbere are some that could order the Whale Jet like Turkish, Air India, SAA, JAL and ANA. Cathay Pacific seems to like the A350-1000 as its next flagship. |
Well, at this time, considering the issues, the current backlog and the production rates, unless you are absolutely slot limited, it probably makes more sense to wait for the 350-1000 and 777x. Realistically, you are going to have to wait 6 years and both the 350-1000 and the 8x/9x look to offer better economics and better flexibility.
RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
| Quoting lightsaber (Reply 9): Now when one is looking at a D-check of labor for the temporary fix and another for the permanent. Since the fix has to currently happen twice, the downtime alone gets expensive. |
Makes me wonder what EK will do with thier early frames. I wouldn't be suprised if other airlines are also worried about this as EK could put a world of hurt on the lease values if they decide to start leasing or selling frames as new ones come in. And the right time to do that would be as you say, When your already got the plane out of service for the permanent fix. So somewhere down the road, EK knows its going to have its planes out of service long enough to remove EK specific equipment and put them on the market. It doesn't have a choice about that time out of service and the costs.
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RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
| Quoting Sheridan125 (Reply 10): Maybe it is because no airline has yet made a profit out of A380 operations. Any news on whether A380 operations have been profitable would be welcome. |
If I recall correctly, all A380 operators are reporting that the plane is making profits for them. New orders for the A380 were slow due to the banking crisis (difficult to get financing) and definitely the lack of slots and delivery certainty.
There's more than enough stuff out on the net about the A380 performing good, there are no doubts on that front.
Cheers!
Only Those Who Sleep Don't Make Mistakes
RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
Does the A380 hold the record for delays in getting to the stage of production free from significant faults requiring rectification? It's nearly 5 years since the first was delivered and all aircraft manufactured so far have had faults requiring major fixes (rewiring first 25 or so + recently identified wing problem). Roll on 2014 when A380's will no longer require rework before or after delivery (one hopes).
I wonder when production will reach the originally planned 40 per annum.
I wonder when production will reach the originally planned 40 per annum.
RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
With the economic down turn globally I think airlines are vary of buying too much capacity, it will be hard to make a profit flying 400 seats on the A380..
RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
| Quoting sweair (Reply 26): |
What is the lifetime of an airplane type, 20, 30 years? I'm sure Airbus can sell another 150 whalejets in the next 10 to 20 years.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
The problem I see is surviving this fast changing economic world, we can go from super growth to an economic depression in 6 months, all fueled by governmental credit scam.
For airlines this have to be a very tough era of surviving, the old 4-5 years of good times and 2-3 bad years are gone.
For A+B it must be even harder to try and have the product out at the time the last FED stimulus sets in..
The larger the aircraft the bigger the risk of having over capacity when your customers stay home saving money or being unemployed.
For airlines this have to be a very tough era of surviving, the old 4-5 years of good times and 2-3 bad years are gone.
For A+B it must be even harder to try and have the product out at the time the last FED stimulus sets in..
The larger the aircraft the bigger the risk of having over capacity when your customers stay home saving money or being unemployed.
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RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
| Quoting sweair (Reply 28): The larger the aircraft the bigger the risk of having over capacity when your customers stay home saving money or being unemployed. |
True if the frames all have equal cost per air-seat mile, but the A380 is delivering the highest CASM in the industry, so it has a chance to stay around a bit longer, and be the aircraft of choice for those few routes that really support the VLA.
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
| Quoting Revelation (Reply 28): True if the frames all have equal cost per air-seat mile, but the A380 is delivering the highest CASM in the industry, so it has a chance to stay around a bit longer, and be the aircraft of choice for those few routes that really support the VLA. |
I sure hope it isn't delivering the highest CASM in the industry. Largest plane + highest CASM = failure.
Also there is a reason to believe that both 350 and 777x will deliver lower CASM than the 380 unless they re-engine.
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- Revelation
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RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
| Quoting spink (Reply 29): highest |
Oops! I meant best/lowest...
| Quoting spink (Reply 29): Also there is a reason to believe that both 350 and 777x will deliver lower CASM than the 380 unless they re-engine. |
I suspect that being beat on CASM would trigger the A380 re-engine.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
| Quoting spink (Reply 29): Also there is a reason to believe that both 350 and 777x will deliver lower CASM than the 380 unless they re-engine. |
Not very likely, especially if the airlines are equipping their A380 with very spacious seating arrangements. Airbus has stated that the A350 will get quite close to the A380, but not beat the CASM of the A380. Which is also continuously improving in that department by the way.
With a re-engine and a stretch (or two
) it is most likely unbeatable until 2050 or so in that department. -
- kc135topboom
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RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
| Quoting 747400sp (Reply 12): It took the 747 until the late 80's to really become a success, and it first flight was in the late 60's. |
Not true. Between 1966 (when the B-747 was first offered for sale) and 1984 (when developement of the B-747-400 began) Boeing sold 638 B-747-100/-200/-300/-SP (of all model varients) and delivered 604 of them. That is a highly successful WB aircraft sales and production, even by today's standards.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_747#Orders_and_deliveries
| Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 22): Quoting Sheridan125 (Reply 10):Maybe it is because no airline has yet made a profit out of A380 operations. Any news on whether A380 operations have been profitable would be welcome. If I recall correctly, all A380 operators are reporting that the plane is making profits for them. |
I don't think that is correct. Most operators still only have a few of them except airlines like SQ, EK, QF, and AF.
| Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 25): What is the lifetime of an airplane type, 20, 30 years? I'm sure Airbus can sell another 150 whalejets in the next 10 to 20 years. |
Ten years would mean and average of 15 sales per year, twenty years is an average of half of that, just 7.5 per year. Both numbers are slower than the B-767 sales over the past 12, or so years.
[Edited 2012-07-29 06:08:37]
RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
| Quoting EPA001 (Reply 31): Not very likely, especially if the airlines are equipping their A380 with very spacious seating arrangements. Airbus has stated that the A350 will get quite close to the A380, but not beat the CASM of the A380. Which is also continuously improving in that department by the way. |
I'm just going off of ferpe's WAG numbers from over in techops.
| Quote: With a re-engine and a stretch (or two ) it is most likely unbeatable until 2050 or so in that department. |
Well that and some better wingtip devices.
RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
| Quoting art (Reply 23): Does the A380 hold the record for delays in getting to the stage of production free from significant faults requiring rectification? |
No. For current production aircraft, that record would go to the 737 since it's still not there yet. But neither is anyone else.
| Quoting art (Reply 23): Roll on 2014 when A380's will no longer require rework before or after delivery (one hopes). |
All aircraft being produced today require rework; that's what an AD is. AD's still come out at a fairly regular pace for aircraft with 20+ year production histories. You can virtually guarantee that no A380, nor any other plane, will ever come off the line and not require rework at some point after delivery.
Tom.
RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
Hello, novice here!
Why wouldn't Boeing take advantage of this A380 issue by offering a 748i solution? I wouldn't dare say how, but most competing companies take advantage of their enemies misfortune. If ordered today, how long before an airline would get their 7478i first delivery?
Why wouldn't Boeing take advantage of this A380 issue by offering a 748i solution? I wouldn't dare say how, but most competing companies take advantage of their enemies misfortune. If ordered today, how long before an airline would get their 7478i first delivery?
To Most the Sky is The Limit, For me, the Sky is Home.
RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
| Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 34): Quoting art (Reply 23): Does the A380 hold the record for delays in getting to the stage of production free from significant faults requiring rectification? No. For current production aircraft, that record would go to the 737 since it's still not there yet. But neither is anyone else. |
Take your point but when I used the term "significant" I meant faults requiring a large amount of input to fix eg redesigning the wiring system on the A380 and installing a fix or redesigning wing components to avoid the cracking problem and installing a fix.
Out of curiosity, any idea how many hours are required on average to fix faults on a mature programme like B737, A320, A330, B767 after one rolls out of the assembly hall?
RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
| Quoting VC10er (Reply 35): Why wouldn't Boeing take advantage of this A380 issue by offering a 748i solution? |
Boeing certainly is, but if you already have the A380 on order, it is the frame worth waiting for.
For those who do not have the A380 on order, the 747-8 might be able to score some orders. Turkish Airlines have an RFP out for a VLA and at least one analyst is claiming that they have chosen the 747-8 over the A380-800.
| Quoting VC10er (Reply 35): If ordered today, how long before an airline would get their 7478i first delivery? |
Depends. In theory, years, however with the air cargo market still soft, customers for the 747-8 freighter would probably be willing to defer delivery so that would open up production slots for the 747-8 Intercontinental.
RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
| Quoting Sheridan125 (Reply 10): Maybe it is because no airline has yet made a profit out of A380 operations. Any news on whether A380 operations have been profitable would be welcome. |
Yes, all airlines who are happy to have them report they are their cash cows.
| Quoting EPA001 (Reply 27): I am sure they can and will sell a lot more then 150 new A380's over that period of time. |
I see another 150 A388 still be sold, and the A389 then outselling the A388 by a factor of 3 similar to how the 77W outsells the 772 in the end.
| Quoting spink (Reply 29): Also there is a reason to believe that both 350 and 777x will deliver lower CASM than the 380 unless they re-engine. |
There is no reason to believe that a 2020 built A350-1000 or 777x will deliver lower CASM than a 2010 built A388. To assume they can beat a 2020 built A389 ignores elemetary maths.
RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
| Quoting Burkhard (Reply 38): There is no reason to believe that a 2020 built A350-1000 or 777x will deliver lower CASM than a 2010 built A388. To assume they can beat a 2020 built A389 ignores elemetary maths. |
I would say that it is perfectly reasonable to believe that a 2020 built 350-1000 or 777-9x will deliver lower CASM than the current 380. If you have the math to prove it as unreasonable, I would love to see it. The only numbers I've seen are ferpe WAG numbers and in those, the 350-1000 and 777-9x are beating the 380.
RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
| Quoting spink (Reply 40): The only numbers I've seen are ferpe WAG numbers and in those, the 350-1000 and 777-9x are beating the 380. |
Do they assume equal seat density? Just asking, perhaps you have a link to those numbers?
Thanks,
PW100
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RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
| Quoting PW100 (Reply 41): Do they assume equal seat density? Just asking, perhaps you have a link to those numbers? |
Ferpe's numbers were both per seat and per M^2:
Boeing Vs. Airbus Wing Design Philosophies (by ferpe Apr 16 2012 in Tech Ops)
RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
I wonder what this will do for the Airbus cash flow ?
If customers are reluctant to take delivery of aircraft that will require modification downtime post delivery, they might simply elect to defer aircraft until a permanent repair can be affected on the production line.
Missing out on even a single A380 delivery could shift $200mil in revenues for Airbus.
This certainly pushes out even further A380 project break even point.
[Edited 2012-07-29 14:37:02]
If customers are reluctant to take delivery of aircraft that will require modification downtime post delivery, they might simply elect to defer aircraft until a permanent repair can be affected on the production line.
Missing out on even a single A380 delivery could shift $200mil in revenues for Airbus.
This certainly pushes out even further A380 project break even point.
[Edited 2012-07-29 14:37:02]
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
| Quoting LAXintl (Reply 43): Missing out on even a single A380 delivery could shift $200mil in revenues for Airbus. |
adds costs too. Mothballing complete or partialy complete planes isn't free, and having frames sitting around in your way will continue to cause production disruptions. Then restoring them to flight condition is another cost. Airbus already has had plenty of painful experience here with airlines delaying delivery of thier A380s well into the production of said frames.
I'm guessing at this time Airbus is going to be quite a bit less willing to do so, demanding that Airlines pay up for any frames in progress, but more willing to shuffle slots for planes that are still yet to be assembled or otherwise easy to shift to another willing airline's configuration.
RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
| Quoting spink (Reply 40): The only numbers I've seen are ferpe WAG numbers and in those, the 350-1000 and 777-9x are beating the 380. |
"Are" beating? Both these planes still only exist on paper..
Ferpe's numbers discuss fuel burn only, not CASM. There are a lot of other variables that go into CASM
| Quoting spink (Reply 40): If you have the math to prove it as unreasonable, I would love to see it |
Airbus themselves boasted that at 10-abreast economy the A350-1000 could match or beat the CASM of the A380. The clear inference of the boast being that at standard 9-abreast, it won't. And they are the builder of both planes, so they should know
Even then, CASM on its own isn't the sole determinant of sales - it's a big one, but not only.
Airlines, like most organisations, make their investment decisions based on NPV calculations, which is why the initial acquisition cost, or funding method, and lead time of acquisition are also relevant.
An A380 is equivalent in seating capacity to 2 A350-900's but only lists at $350m, compared to over $500m for the 2 A350-900's.
| Quoting Revelation (Reply 30): I suspect that being beat on CASM would trigger the A380 re-engine. |
And possibly growth variants too
Rgds
RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
| Quoting astuteman (Reply 45): Airbus themselves boasted that at 10-abreast economy the A350-1000 |
Yah, but then you could do a charter configuration of the A380 that puts it at the exit limit if your willing to punish your customers like a 10Y A351 would do. And a 850+ seat A380 I think wins the CASM race, unless The 777x or A350 have absurd evacuation limits.
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- TheCommodore
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RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
| Quoting Revelation (Reply 8): It must be a huge headache for those at TLS. |
Now there's an understatement and a half !!
| Quoting Sheridan125 (Reply 10): Perhaps the lack of new orders has nothing to do with wing problems. Maybe it is because no airline has yet made a profit out of A380 operations. Any news on whether A380 operations have been profitable would be welcome. |
Maybe, but I doubt it.
I'm of the opinion its got more to do with the economic outlook for the world generally. I cant see to many Europeans taking expensive holidays anywhere really considering the pain Europe is going through at the moment. Same for the US market
The A380 will be profitable in the long run, just as the 747 is/was.
“At first, they'll only dislike what you say, but the more correct you start sounding the more they'll dislike you.”
RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
| Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 46): Yah, but then you could do a charter configuration of the A380 that puts it at the exit limit if your willing to punish your customers like a 10Y A351 would do. And a 850+ seat A380 I think wins the CASM race |
The daft thing is you could get an A380 up to about 840 seats at 10-across/18.5" wide and 30"-31" pitch seats with a bit of care. So even at those seating levels, it wouldn't punish the passengers to the same level as the A350-1000
Which just emphasizes your point, of course,
Rgds
[Edited 2012-07-30 01:12:08]
RE: Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders
The A350 or the 777 does not have the same problem if the market turns down quickly, right now even China is slowing down, if you have to fill 480 seats or 270 to make a profit I know what I would get. Do you even remember 2008? Its not that long ago, aviation slowed very fast and frames got parked in the desert. Freight was even worse, no freight to make up the 50% empty cabin..
The A380 is a bigger risk than a A350-1000 for an airline IMO.
The A380 is a bigger risk than a A350-1000 for an airline IMO.