Delta Trying To Buy AA?

blueman87 · Sun Aug 12, 2012 2:31 pm

I am guessing AA is on the DL watch list coming from this artlicle i read

heres a link
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...n-american-airlines-mail-says.html

Burkhard · Sun Aug 12, 2012 2:47 pm

Can be answered with one word: No.

CIDFlyer · Sun Aug 12, 2012 2:49 pm

I don't know how credible that article is. DL months ago was expressing an interest. I dont think they would ever be able to buy AA as a whole, that most likely wouldnt even be approved by the gov't anyways. What DL does want is most surely MIA, and also to a lesser extent DFW. It would probably be more plausible if they worked with US to divvy up AA. US could take ORD, JFK and the AA name. DL could take MIA and DFW. If that were to happen I think you would immdediatley see MEM downgraded to a spoke instantly. MIA is the crown jewel for any airline that controls it. DL would like DFW back as a southern central hub that MEM can never be. DL's name is well known in DFW since they hubbed there for many years, now they could possibly own it without AA in the pic.

US (as the new AA) would finally have its midwestern hub with ORD. PHX would probably stick around and grow since it wouldnt have some overlap issues with DFW and could feed more midwestern destinations that currently go through DFW. I would imagine it would grow more with more Mexican destinations. CLT would become AA's largest hub and more than likely its gateway to South America in this scenerio. CLT would probably also gain more midwestern markets that currently go through DFW.

However I see it being difficult for AA to just hand over DFW and MIA. I suppose if the price is right but those are 2 big money makers for AA.

[Edited 2012-08-12 07:51:33]

[Edited 2012-08-12 07:52:17]

deltairlines · Sun Aug 12, 2012 3:28 pm

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 3):
I don't know how credible that article is. DL months ago was expressing an interest. I dont think they would ever be able to buy AA as a whole, that most likely wouldnt even be approved by the gov't anyways. What DL does want is most surely MIA, and also to a lesser extent DFW. It would probably be more plausible if they worked with US to divvy up AA. US could take ORD, JFK and the AA name. DL could take MIA and DFW. If that were to happen I think you would immdediatley see MEM downgraded to a spoke instantly. MIA is the crown jewel for any airline that controls it. DL would like DFW back as a southern central hub that MEM can never be. DL's name is well known in DFW since they hubbed there for many years, now they could possibly own it without AA in the pic.

US (as the new AA) would finally have its midwestern hub with ORD. PHX would probably stick around and grow since it wouldnt have some overlap issues with DFW and could feed more midwestern destinations that currently go through DFW. I would imagine it would grow more with more Mexican destinations. CLT would become AA's largest hub and more than likely its gateway to South America in this scenerio. CLT would probably also gain more midwestern markets that currently go through DFW.

US wants to have DFW, probably even moreso than Delta. It commands much higher yields than PHX and has much of the same flow traffic as PHX - while there's 800 or so miles between Phoenix and Dallas, there isn't much in terms of a population base (especially considering for what US flies out of PHX) - the only cities in between Dallas and Phoenix that flow better to the West Coast over PHX are ELP, ABQ, DEN, DRO, GJT and maybe a couple of others.

RDUDDJI · Sun Aug 12, 2012 4:22 pm

Everyone knows there's no way a DL/AA merger would be approved, however, DL is smart to drive up the bidding price.

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 3):
CLT would become AA's largest hub and more than likely its gateway to South America in this scenerio. CLT would probably also gain more midwestern markets that currently go through DFW.

No way. If it becomes US/AA, CLT will remain a key player for low revenue Mid Atlantic connections, but if anything, they'll lose midwest traffic to smaller markets that can be routed via higher revenue hubs (ORD/DFW). CLT is one of the few low O&D hubs that still exists. It works well in the US system, but in the AA system, it would not be as beneficial. The list of other low O&D hubs that are no longer around is long and distinguished.

mayor · Sun Aug 12, 2012 4:36 pm

Quoting rduddji (Reply 6):
Everyone knows there's no way a DL/AA merger would be approved, however, DL is smart to drive up the bidding price.

Just as AA and TW did to DL when the bidding was going on for PA.

Bobloblaw · Sun Aug 12, 2012 4:37 pm

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 3):
It would probably be more plausible if they worked with US to divvy up AA. US could take ORD, JFK and the AA name. DL could take MIA and DFW.

That would never ever happen. Why in the world would US ever agree to such a one sided deal. DL gets the crown jewels of AA and US gets the garbage.

DFW and MIA are probably worth more than the entire airline.

TWA772LR · Sun Aug 12, 2012 4:38 pm

Quoting plateman (Reply 1):
I feel this forum is just becoming XX to buy AA

Word on the street is, Pet Airways wants to buy AA too.

(couldn't resist!)

The only thing DL would want from AA is DFW. MIA LatAm routes are just as good from ATL. And AA and DL are about even at JFK.

par13del · Sun Aug 12, 2012 4:40 pm

So DL is making plans for the purchase of AA's MIA assets which will be up for sale after the Chpt.11 judge allows AA to impose a contract on the pilots who suddenly come down with the (insert colour here) flu which renders so many of them sick that they cannot report to work.
Far fetched, maybe, but based on the margin of defeat of the last proposal and the companies intent to not offer a better contract the odds are not that far off.
As long as the pilots and FA's belive that they are better off with US they will continue to agitate, so................

flymia · Sun Aug 12, 2012 4:47 pm

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 7):
MIA LatAm routes are just as good from ATL.

Forget the pet airways joke. Now that is funny!

You believe ATL is just as good as MIA form Lat Am? Yea sure maybe if you are planning on carrying little cargo and a bunch of American tourist to Rio or Aruba.

eastern023 · Sun Aug 12, 2012 4:48 pm

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 7):
LatAm routes are just as good from ATL. And AA and DL are about even at JFK.

If that was true then ATL would be the biggest hub to Latin America and Delta the biggest U.S. Carrier to the region. I don't think that is the case. DL does covet MIA and it is probably all it would ever want from AA.

crAAzy · Sun Aug 12, 2012 4:48 pm

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 7):

The only thing DL would want from AA is DFW. MIA LatAm routes are just as good from ATL.

Ummm ... No. It's been shown time and time again that DL out of ATL can only make a handful of South American routes work out of ATL (even as the busiest airport in the nation). There is no replacement for MIA when it comes to routes into S. America or the Caribbean.

CIDFlyer · Sun Aug 12, 2012 5:09 pm

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 6):

That would never ever happen. Why in the world would US ever agree to such a one sided deal. DL gets the crown jewels of AA and US gets the garbage.

DFW and MIA are probably worth more than the entire airline.

For the record I dont ever see it happening either. Just a scenerio, DL will never be able to swallow AA whole, if they ever have any part of a deal (which I seriously doubt they will) it would only be able to take a part of it, and the only parts they would ever want are MIA, and DFW, but US is undoubtably going to want those too. Whether they would be willing to part with one of the two I guess would be up in the air. The will want the whole pie would be my guess and not give any of it away.

avek00 · Sun Aug 12, 2012 5:25 pm

Quoting rduddji (Reply 4):

Define everyone. It's absolutely possible to envision multiple plauisble scenarios where AA and DL combine with a minimum of regulatory fuss. The only real problem airports would be JFK and LGA.

PHX787 · Sun Aug 12, 2012 5:27 pm

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 1):
Can be answered with one word: No.

The feds would never agree to this.

rwy04lga · Sun Aug 12, 2012 5:30 pm

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 7):
The only thing DL would want from AA is DFW

Quoting eastern023 (Reply 10):
DL does covet MIA and it is probably all it would ever want from AA.

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 12):
the only parts they would ever want are MIA, and DFW

Plus JFK T-8 and the 777's

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 11):
even as the busiest airport in the nation

Umm......World, not just the nation (USA)

XT6Wagon · Sun Aug 12, 2012 6:01 pm

Delta likely wants AA to go to an asset auction. They would want to cherrypick the bits they get. Certainly getting the whole airline is not only impossible, but completely unwise. Even if it passed the DOJ, why would they want a fleet they would have to park most of, and a route structure they would have end much of? Then the 500lbs gorrilla in the room? Why would anyone want AA's unions? AA union management is quite delusional and has created an impossible labor enviroment for both the airline and the employees.

rotating14 · Sun Aug 12, 2012 6:04 pm

I strongly doubt DL would buy AA. The regulatory folks would have jokes for weeks about it. Hell, it might even make Leno or Letterman.

What is worth asking is if they would be interested in American Eagle. I don't know how extensive the route network for A. E. is but it could work since they'll never get a hold of MIA and DFW. Thoughts?

xjramper · Sun Aug 12, 2012 6:07 pm

It's like this one time at band camp. Oh wait, different story.

DL combining with AA would be disastrous for DL, not only with the labor issues, but ageing aircraft as well.

kl911 · Sun Aug 12, 2012 6:11 pm

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 18):
What is worth asking is if they would be interested in American Eagle. I don't know how extensive the route network for A. E. is but it could work since they'll never get a hold of MIA and DFW. Thoughts?

Are those airports slot controlled? In that case they might want Eagle for its slots so DL can start its own hub in MIA. If its not slot controlled I dont see why DL and others dont have a hub there.

seabosdca · Sun Aug 12, 2012 6:12 pm

Quoting avek00 (Reply 13):
The only real problem airports would be JFK and LGA.

Have to disagree with this. There is enormous overlap between the markets served by ATL and DFW, and some overlap between ATL and MIA. I think the DOJ might allow DL to buy AA's MIA ops, but I think there is no way they could buy both southern hubs, or even DFW alone.

questions · Sun Aug 12, 2012 6:15 pm

It seems that the only things DL wants from AA are:

1. Additional LATAM routes for greater market penetration in that region - and appropriate aircraft to serve the routes
2. Facilities, e.g., JFK T8 - swap with T2 and T4

If DL were able to cherry pick the above from AA, there would still be value remaining for a AA/US merger although far less compelling.

Does anyone have a comparison of:

- DL LATAM routes from ATL
- AA LATAM routes from DFW
- AA LATAM routes from MIA

flymia · Sun Aug 12, 2012 6:16 pm

Quoting kl911 (Reply 20):

MIA and DFW are not slot controlled and as long as AA is around don't see DL putting up shop in either. DL seemed to making an attempt at MIA last year but later pulled away, they are still MIA's second largest airline but no where near as close as AA. If they really want to they could start something in MIA they would be able to have the gate space using H to themselves.

I don't see AA going away I see two situations a stand alone reorganized AA or AA merge with US which in all likelihood would keep the AA brand. There is always B6 too

bobnwa · Sun Aug 12, 2012 7:20 pm

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 18):
What is worth asking is if they would be interested in American Eagle

If Delta just shutdown Comair, why on earth would they now want American Eagle?

PHX787 · Sun Aug 12, 2012 7:32 pm

Quoting questions (Reply 22):
If DL were able to cherry pick the above from AA, there would still be value remaining for a AA/US merger although far less compelling.

Why can't DL just buy those assets from AA?

I.e. the DFW and MIA hubs, and the JFK terminal (maybe a swap there at JFK)

JONC777 · Sun Aug 12, 2012 7:35 pm

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 7):

Pet airways? I heard it was G4??

mayor · Sun Aug 12, 2012 7:37 pm

Quoting kl911 (Reply 20):
If its not slot controlled I dont see why DL and others dont have a hub there.

I don't know if MIA is slot controlled or not, but I do know that AA established their hub by means of buying the assests of EA in 1990. I'm sure, at the time, DL didn't want to mess with establishing another hub in the southeast, as ATL was already well established. A year later, they were tied up with the PA acquisition. UA tried MIA in the 90s, having acquired PA's Latin American routes.

Bobloblaw · Mon Aug 13, 2012 12:17 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 24):
Why can't DL just buy those assets from AA?

Because they arent for sale and DL would have to bid a price that would be extremely high for the creditors to agree. Given the employees are creditors, I doubt they would go along.

dbo861 · Mon Aug 13, 2012 12:19 am

Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 15):
Plus JFK T-8 and the 777's

Is Delta really interested in more 77Es?

SuperDash · Mon Aug 13, 2012 12:33 am

The answer is: YES, Delta would be interested. Bottom line is regulators rarely say "NO" to an entire deal. They usually take a couple of pounds of flesh which the merging parties are not willing to give up. In this case, how much is..MIami worth? How much is Dallas (a former DL hub) worth? The elimination of a major competitor in New York, even if DL had to give up all of AAs slots at LGA and JFK to make that happen; how much is that worth? Elimination of a competitor at LAX. How much is that worth? A major blow to oneWorld. I can see a lot of reasons Delta might pursue this. If anything just to drive the price up that another airline would have to pay. The regulators are going to ask for a couple of pounds of flesh, but it might be worth it to Delta.

HPRamper · Mon Aug 13, 2012 12:43 am

Quoting rduddji (Reply 4):
No way. If it becomes US/AA, CLT will remain a key player for low revenue Mid Atlantic connections, but if anything, they'll lose midwest traffic to smaller markets that can be routed via higher revenue hubs (ORD/DFW). CLT is one of the few low O&D hubs that still exists. It works well in the US system, but in the AA system, it would not be as beneficial. The list of other low O&D hubs that are no longer around is long and distinguished.

CIDFlyer was referring to an AA network that no longer included MIA or DFW. In such a case, it's highly plausible that CLT remains the largest hub, seeing as ORD is not a fortress.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 6):
That would never ever happen. Why in the world would US ever agree to such a one sided deal. DL gets the crown jewels of AA and US gets the garbage.

While I'm not sure I'd call ORD "garbage," I do think US wants DFW more. I also think if it came right down to it, US would choose DFW over MIA.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 6):
DFW and MIA are probably worth more than the entire airline.

At this point, probably true.

toltommy · Mon Aug 13, 2012 12:47 am

Quoting mayor (Reply 26):
I don't know if MIA is slot controlled or not

The question was answered after it was first asked. But since you didn't take time to look, please be advised that MIA is not slot controlled.

FWAERJ · Mon Aug 13, 2012 1:22 am

A couple of months ago, Richard Anderson said to DL employees that DL would be interested in DFW and MIA only.

If that were to happen, I think that UA would turn ORD into the fortress it needs and strengthen LAX, while B6 would grab the NYC airports. DFW and MIA are AA's crown jewels... everything else can be filled by other airlines.

mayor · Mon Aug 13, 2012 1:39 am

Quoting toltommy (Reply 31):
The question was answered after it was first asked. But since you didn't take time to look, please be advised that MIA is not slot controlled.

Oh, ease up..........I just missed it, is all................

cokepopper · Mon Aug 13, 2012 3:19 am

Quoting mayor (Reply 5):
Quoting rduddji (Reply 6):
Everyone knows there's no way a DL/AA merger would be approved, however, DL is smart to drive up the bidding price.

Just as AA and TW did to DL when the bidding was going on for PA.

Exactly Mayor! it would be nice to see Delta get some payback for that fiasco!

Quoting mayor (Reply 33):
Quoting toltommy (Reply 31):
The question was answered after it was first asked. But since you didn't take time to look, please be advised that MIA is not slot controlled.

Oh, ease up..........I just missed it, is all................

I guess someone pissed in his cornflakes

southwest737500 · Mon Aug 13, 2012 4:52 am

I can see CLT getting flights to OKC,TUL,GRR

I also could BA come back to CLT.

I could see the new AA add more flights to Europe

Maybe CLT could see some 787-9 or 777 and 737

lweber557 · Mon Aug 13, 2012 5:52 am

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 32):

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 32):
A couple of months ago, Richard Anderson said to DL employees that DL would be interested in DFW and MIA only.

Actually DL is waiting for US Airways and American to merge, buy Jet Blue and Alaska. Then they will buy American.

If DL really wanted a hub at DFW that badly they could open up all they're old gates in terminal E or just build new terminal. There is definitely plenty of room and DFW isn't slot controlled to my knowledge. It would be way cheaper than buying AA or bidding for DFW. They would still be competing with AA though, probably why they closed the DFW hub in the first place. Don't know how it would work in MIA as I don't know much about that airport.

spud757 · Mon Aug 13, 2012 10:04 am

IAG are reported to be wanting a stake in AA to try prevent DL making any moves. The JV between BA & AA on transatlantic flights and the benefits of OW alliance hinge on AA staying

par13del · Mon Aug 13, 2012 12:31 pm

Quoting lweber557 (Reply 36):
If DL really wanted a hub at DFW that badly they could open up all they're old gates in terminal E or just build new terminal. There is definitely plenty of room and DFW isn't slot controlled to my knowledge. It would be way cheaper than buying AA or bidding for DFW. They would still be competing with AA though, probably why they closed the DFW hub in the first place.

The key to the situation, DL want DFW without AA, less competition the better.
Principle only applies to legacies carriers not LCC's

Quoting lweber557 (Reply 36):
Don't know how it would work in MIA as I don't know much about that airport.

Same difference as above

Revelation · Mon Aug 13, 2012 12:56 pm

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 2):
I dont think they would ever be able to buy AA as a whole, that most likely wouldnt even be approved by the gov't anyways. What DL does want is most surely MIA, and also to a lesser extent DFW.

Why would the gov't allow DL to have a stranglehold on both ATL and MIA?

bhmdiversion · Mon Aug 13, 2012 2:21 pm

One thing I find interesting in this whole deal...

Delta just put a bunch of DCI cities up for bid (to the lowest bidder of course).

One of the new ground handlers that is taking over is called G2, which was formed from former AA execs.

The same thing happened when DL and NW had not formally merged, that 9E, XJ, and NW Mainline were taking over the ground handling in these stations.

Would this surprise me if Delta came in under the radar and snatched up AA? Not at all.

enilria · Mon Aug 13, 2012 2:43 pm

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 2):
What DL does want is most surely MIA, and also to a lesser extent DFW.

True

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 2):
It would probably be more plausible if they worked with US to divvy up AA.

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 2):
US could take ORD, JFK and the AA name.

The trouble is that DFW and MIA are the most valuable parts to both US and DL. US has zero interest in JFK. That's not going to happen. DL wants that more than US. I really don't see US only taking ORD. If such a deal were possible, I'd see US taking ORD/DFW, with DL taking MIA/JFK/LAX. I still don't think such a deal is plausible.

avek00 · Mon Aug 13, 2012 2:49 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 39):
Why would the gov't allow DL to have a stranglehold on both ATL and MIA?

Because the government's antitrust/competitive effects analyses focus almost exclusively on market concentrations on specific city-pairs and the ability of competitors to offer commercially competitive flights where the airports involved are slot/gate restricted. There's simply no precedent for the federal government to conclude that having two hubs hundreds of miles apart with vastly different market strengths should result in the rejection of a proposed merger.

AA94 · Mon Aug 13, 2012 2:51 pm

Even if DL were to make a move for AA, there's no way that a DL/AA merger or acquisition would be approved by the antitrust authorities. Delta is the largest North American airline in terms of passengers carried, and AA is fourth in the ranks. IMO, that entity would have too much market share, and the DOT is likely to say the same.

Even if such a deal were possible, I don't think DL is interested in the company as a whole. AA has some of the problems that no airline in today's industry wants: a very unpredictable, volatile labor situation; a fleet of aging MD-82/83 aircraft; and bankruptcy.

To be honest, I don't understand either why an asset auction has even been mentioned. AA is in bankruptcy protection, not liquidation. At this point, I don't think we're even close to the territory of a liquidation or asset auction. Further, for AA (or AA/US, depending) to just hand DFW and MIA over to DL is highly unlikely. No matter how dire the fiscal situation, or how much money DL offers, without DFW/MIA, AA is really reduced to very little.

avek00 · Mon Aug 13, 2012 2:56 pm

Quoting AA94 (Reply 43):
Even if DL were to make a move for AA, there's no way that a DL/AA merger or acquisition would be approved by the antitrust authorities. Delta is the largest North American airline in terms of passengers carried, and AA is fourth in the ranks. IMO, that entity would have too much market share, and the DOT is likely to say the same.

What in the history of post-deregulation airline merger review leads you to this conclusion? Overall company size has NEVER been a dispositive consideration in regulatory analysis -- there's absolutely nothing wrong with an airline being gigantic so long as other carriers have a reasonable ability to compete on a city-pair basis.

strfyr51 · Mon Aug 13, 2012 4:31 pm

American and Continental tried the same thing in 2002 when UAL went into bankruptcy, They wanted UAL to sell he Tokyo Narita Hub and the pacific Division to them for almost $3B. as UA owed $2B to the pension fund. Tilton screwed them By abrogating the pension fund relieving UAL of $10B in debt. Kept the NRT hub and Now UAL has Continental in the pocket and American had to take a "breather" in CH-11 10 Years later. No! they're Not going to sell the Miami Hib OR the South American Routes.!
Delta has their OWN and will have to build the rest!!

ckfred · Mon Aug 13, 2012 5:00 pm

My guess is that the potential IAG investment has nothing to do with Delta and is simply BA/IB wanting to keep US from getting control of AA. IAG may feel that it can work with Horton (or whomever the AMR sharholders select as CEO, post Chapter 11 select) better than Parker.

Alliance partners investing in each other isn't new. AA owned 25% of CP. KLM owned a sizable positon in NW. When AC was fending off a takeover by AA/CP and a Canadian investment firm, I think LH and/or UA put some money up towards AC buying CP.

kl911 · Mon Aug 13, 2012 5:18 pm

Maybe a silly question, what would DL have to buy in MIA? I dont get it. Cant they just base planes there and start operations? Or does it work different than in Europe? Here they do it all the time.

mayor · Mon Aug 13, 2012 5:30 pm

Quoting ckfred (Reply 46):
My guess is that the potential IAG investment has nothing to do with Delta and is simply BA/IB wanting to keep US from getting control of AA.

My thoughts, also. I really don't think DL is involved at all, but this is a way for BA/IB to make themselves look like a better partner rather than US or DL.

flyby519 · Mon Aug 13, 2012 6:42 pm

Quoting kl911 (Reply 47):
Maybe a silly question, what would DL have to buy in MIA? I dont get it. Cant they just base planes there and start operations? Or does it work different than in Europe? Here they do it all the time.

They could, but there would be difficulties finding good infrastructure like gates/terminal areas. Also every time DL tried to add MIA capacity AA moves onto the route with overcapacity and destroys the fares. DL buying the AA MIA hub would eliminate any real competition in the MIA airport, so that is were the value comes.

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