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LAXintl
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DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Mon Aug 27, 2012 9:19 pm

With the DOT declining Delta's request to transfer its Detroit - Haneda route authority to an alternate gateway of Seattle ( Delta Asks DOT To Move DTW-Haneda Slot To SEA (by LAXintl Jul 30 2012 in Civil Aviation) ), the DOT has instituted an expedited new route award selection process for the slot-pair.

Initial applications are due to today, so lets get started:


American Airlines
AA applies for allocation of the slot-pair for use between Los Angeles and Haneda.

AA argues that LAX is the largest mainland O&D pair from Japan, and in interest of global competition it is critical oneworld be represented in a market where both Skyteam and Star enjoy such service today.

AA states in cooperation with JV partner JL, a LAX-HND service would offer competitive connections in excess of 30 US and Asian markets.

Proposed schedule:
AA127 LAX-HND 0125-0500 B777
AA128 HND-LAX 0005-1820 B777



OST-2010-0018

[Edited 2012-08-27 14:43:22]
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SonomaFlyer
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RE: DOT US-Hanede Route Selection Thread

Mon Aug 27, 2012 9:36 pm

This should prove to be an interesting debate at DoT. AA's proposal from LAX is attractive, especially when the J/V with JL is considered.

UA's proposal is from SFO I believe.

Will DL try to make a bid from LAX as well?
 
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LAXintl
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RE: DOT US-Hanede Route Selection Thread

Mon Aug 27, 2012 9:38 pm

The next one .....


Hawaiian Airlines
HA proposes to institute nonstop service from Haneda to Kona.

Since the launch of HA's HNL-HND service the carrier has seen great success and believes a Kona nonstop would not only inject new competition in the Japan market from Hawaii, but would provide economic benefits for the State of Hawaii and US overall.

HA is well aware of existing great demand for travel to Kona which today is only accessible via Honolulu. This is underscored by the fact that Kona is the 2nd largest travel market from Tokyo that lacks nonstop air service today.

Proposed schedule:
HA432 KOA-HND 1750-2200 A330
HA431 HND-KOA 2355-1245 A330


=

[Edited 2012-08-27 14:40:34]
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IrishAyes
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Mon Aug 27, 2012 9:48 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):

I couldn't find your source on this, but if I am not mistaken, that would help solve the a/c utilization issue that is currently problematic with the JFKHND flights.

The current JFK-HND schedule is

AA135 JFK-HND 1900-2215 B777
AA134 HND-JFK 0650-0625 B777

So, that would mean the two frames would alternate between LAX and JFK via HND with this schedule?

AA127 LAX-HND 0125-0500 B777
AA128 HND-LAX 0005-1820 B777

Flight 135 arrives from JFK, departs for LAX an hour and 50 minutes later on flight 128. Then, flight 127 arrives from LAX, departs for JFK one hour and 50 mins later on flight 134.
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Mon Aug 27, 2012 9:49 pm

Man, Ill spend the extra 35 minutes to get to NRT and fly/arrive at a reasonable hour.
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adtall
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Mon Aug 27, 2012 9:50 pm

Quoting sonomaflyer (Reply 1):

DL already flies LAX-HND, they'll go for SEA like they proposed to the DOT.
 
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LAXintl
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Mon Aug 27, 2012 10:11 pm

Yes DL is trying for Seattle still --


Delta Air Lines
Delta resubmits its request for a Seattle to Haneda award.

Delta believes the DOT must continue to consider the competitive impacts that immunized alliances have had on the US-Japan market and that Delta remains the sole independent competitor and network challenger to these.

Seattle is a well established gateway for Asia service and yet lacks a Haneda nonstop putting it at disadvantage compared to West Coast peers.

With a convenient schedule and one-stop network connection opportunities via partner Alaska Airlines some 42 communities will benefit by Delta's Haneda proposal.


Proposed schedule:
SEA-HND 1935-0001 B763
HND-SEA 2200-1700 B763
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SonomaFlyer
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Mon Aug 27, 2012 10:34 pm

It's nice to see some varied choices for DoT to consider in this round. For those of you who fly between the U.S. and Japan frequently, is the allure of HND the fact is closer to Tokyo than NRT or some other reason?
 
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Mon Aug 27, 2012 10:54 pm

Quoting sonomaflyer (Reply 7):
It's nice to see some varied choices for DoT to consider in this round. For those of you who fly between the U.S. and Japan frequently, is the allure of HND the fact is closer to Tokyo than NRT or some other reason?

HND is closer to Tokyo's business districts but these international flights are restricted to undesirable times where the public transport to/from HND is very poor (especially the midnight HND arrivals). This essentially negates the geographic advantage HND has over NRT and explains why most of the HND flights on North American carriers have performed poorly. Most passengers would rather fly from NRT at a more reasonable times; getting to NRT is not that much of a PITA!
 
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Mon Aug 27, 2012 10:55 pm

The million dollar question is; how long after a DL award of SEA would they request to idle the award for some reason? Much like LAX GRU and several other DL awards they tend to get granted a award and proceed to NOT fly the route. I hope the credibility of DL is taken into account when the decision to grant these awards is made.
 
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Mon Aug 27, 2012 11:08 pm

DoT has a wide range of factors to consider. DL's track record may be factored.
 
luckyone
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Mon Aug 27, 2012 11:42 pm

Quoting mcdu (Reply 9):
The million dollar question is; how long after a DL award of SEA would they request to idle the award for some reason? Much like LAX GRU and several other DL awards they tend to get granted a award and proceed to NOT fly the route. I hope the credibility of DL is taken into account when the decision to grant these awards is made.

That is a very fair point. On the other side of the issue, Delta has made a purposeful and organized push in Seattle. They have been clearly building it. That may work in their favor.
 
adtall
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Mon Aug 27, 2012 11:53 pm

Did United apply? I thought they were gung-ho for SFO...
 
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Mon Aug 27, 2012 11:55 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
Proposed schedule:
AA127 LAX-HND 0125-0500 B777
AA128 HND-LAX 0005-1820 B777

Does AA really think this schedule is good one ? it stinks. I know about the ole HND 2200-0700 clock but fly to Narita or keep NRT if you have to fly to HND.
 
commavia
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:03 am

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 13):
Does AA really think this schedule is good one ? it stinks. I know about the ole HND 2200-0700 clock but fly to Narita or keep NRT if you have to fly to HND.

It's actually the ideal schedule, given the constraints, for an LAX-HND schedule, which is precisely why it's basically the exact same schedule ANA and Delta are current using. The late LAX departure allows for tons of connections and a full day at LAX for the originating passengers, and the 0125 departure - while too early for my tastes - is perfectly common for many California-Asia flights. The return, on the other hand, leaves less to be desired in terms of LAX connections, but it does, again, provide for a fully working day in Tokyo. Plus, with this schedule, there would be massive amounts of connectivity to be had to points throughout Japan via the JAL partnership.

All that being said, I don't think AA has the slightest chance of winning this - I think this authority is United's to lose.
 
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LAXintl
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:04 am

Quoting adtall (Reply 12):
Did United apply? I thought they were gung-ho for SFO...

Yes they said they would in their SEA transfer objection. Should be posted shortly I presume.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 13):
Does AA really think this schedule is good one ? it stinks. I know about the ole HND 2200-0700 clock but fly to Narita or keep NRT if you have to fly to HND.

Actually from the West Coast its not bad at all. There is a slew of midnight departures today already so consumers are well used to such timings.
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sr117
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:11 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 6):
Proposed schedule:
SEA-HND 1935-0001 B763
HND-SEA 2200-1700 B763

Ha, I thought it was a bad joke at first, but now I realize there must be something wrong.

First, it would be pretty crazy to schedule an arrival into HND after most of the transport for the evening has has shut down (after midnight), I mean, an arrival at 23:00 is already cutting it close enough, but past midnight? insane...

The HND-SEA schedule means the plane would be on the ground 22 hours in Tokyo, which seems doubtful. I'm thinking they probably meant SEA-HND 19:35-22:00 and HND-SEA 00:01-17:00 which makes a lot more sense. A 22:00 arrival at Haneda isn't bad at all.

The Hawaiian application is pretty interesting ! Should be fun to see how the DOT rolls this time.
 
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:21 am

Quoting SR117 (Reply 16):
The HND-SEA schedule means the plane would be on the ground 22 hours in Tokyo, which seems doubtful. I'm thinking they probably meant SEA-HND 19:35-22:00 and HND-SEA 00:01-17:00 which makes a lot more sense. A 22:00 arrival at Haneda isn't bad at all.

My guess is that they would downgauge LAX-HND to a 763 (not a bad idea) and retime it to coordinate with the SEA flights. I highly doubt they're going to leave a 763 at HND for 22 hours.
 
commavia
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:22 am

Quoting SR117 (Reply 16):
Ha, I thought it was a bad joke at first, but now I realize there must be something wrong.
Quoting SR117 (Reply 16):
The HND-SEA schedule means the plane would be on the ground 22 hours in Tokyo, which seems doubtful. I'm thinking they probably meant SEA-HND 19:35-22:00 and HND-SEA 00:01-17:00 which makes a lot more sense. A 22:00 arrival at Haneda isn't bad at all.

That was a typo.

The schedule in Delta's actual application is:

SEA-HND 1935-2200 B763
HND-SEA 0000-1700 B763
 
MSPNWA
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:27 am

HA has a strong case with KOA. That could be a real gold mine.

I don't see AA or DL having much of a chance.

UA, where art thou with SFO?
 
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LAXintl
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 2:23 am

Boys from Chicago are in with their proposal....


United Airlines
UA seeks the available slot pair to connect San Francisco with Haneda

With a premier West Coast US network via the SFO gateway, United provides unparallel array of services which would significantly compliment a new SFO-Haneda route.

California is by far the largest mainland to Japan market, and United is well positioned to serve the region. In cooperation with JV partner ANA, United will be able to offer connection service to nearly 100 markets on both sides of the Pacific. Consumers will be able to mix/match itineraries with existing Narita services providing the broad benefits for both the business and leisure traveler.


Proposed schedule:

UA801 SFO-HND 1900-2215 B777
UA802 HND-SFO 0005-1720 B777

=
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:21 am

Quote:
United Airlines
UA seeks the available slot pair to connect San Francisco with Haneda

I expect United to get it. Delta doesn't have enough connectivity, another Hawaiian destination just won't be accepted when there is barley service from the mainland and LAX is already served so AA has little to fight with.
 
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:29 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 14):

Yup, as someone that travels to Asia frequently, the "redeye" midnight/post-midnight flights ex-USA are ideal for me in terms of jet lag, productivity, onward connections and public transportation.

I will admit that I prefer the afternoon returns ex-Asia, as I find it easier to sleep, but this schedule is still acceptable for connections on both sides, public trans and productivity.
 
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:44 am

I hope that UA can get one slot, as neither they nor CO got one last time, when DL got 2! I know they were trying to get approval for a merger, but lets level the competitive playing field now.
 
sr117
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 4:12 am

Quoting cosyr (Reply 23):

I hope that UA can get one slot, as neither they nor CO got one last time, when DL got 2! I know they were trying to get approval for a merger, but lets level the competitive playing field now.

Remember that United's joint venture with ANA means that they technically already have access. They can't pretend that they're two separate carriers only when it suits them. If SFO was so important for UA/NH they could have switched authority from HNL to SFO. Also, UA's proposed schedule into HND means that the much touted connection opportunities at HND are pretty much null, leaving only feed on the US side, which is arguably comparable to the feed offered by DL at SEA.

When the DOT awarded the DTW route to DL, they did so partly to level the playing field between UA/NH and JL/AA and to give HND access to the US Midwest.

Now they have to balance out a weaker SEA gateway fed with Alaska/Horizon feed which the DOT previously said they didn't like, vs giving Star Alliance another slot and a stronger gateway at SFO that is already served by JL/AA.
 
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 4:19 am

My uneducated guess is that the two best cases are:

DL - SEA
UA - SFO

AA with good intentions, already has JFK service and LAX is a duplicate of DL's service

HA with KOA service, lacks any sort of connectivity to the rest of the United States and is entirely focused on tourism in Hawaii.
 
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 4:23 am

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 19):
HA has a strong case with KOA. That could be a real gold mine.

Would be a travesty. Nearly 100% O&D traffic originating in Japan. No argument at all could be made that it benefits the American traveler. It's simply a leisure route so Japanese people can play golf.

SFO-HND or SEA-HND would be much more valuable to the country as a whole. KOA is only valuable to HA, the Japanese, and marginally to Hawaii.

While HND slots are artificially scarce, they can't be wasted in this manner.
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 4:52 am

HA could connect pax to the mainland through KOA. Surprised US Airways didnt try for PHX.
 
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 6:23 am

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):

so the other airline that has had to cut HND flights wants an extra flight? smh.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 6):

and I think HA should get it then. IMO Hawaii to HND is the only thing that would make money. SEA/SFO/LAX(#2) would all burn money.
I was holding out hope Delta would ask for HNL-HND.

Quoting sonomaflyer (Reply 10):

then so should all other airlines. AA has had to cut HND once before.

Quoting mcdu (Reply 9):

So Delta should be penalized because they took two frequencies that had been unused for many years, and one frequencies from its own GRU flights to fly LAX-GRU, which it did fly FYI? Sounds totally fair.      

I can think of very few times Delta has asked for, and received, frequencies that they didn't at least give a shot. The only two i can think of is NRT-CAN(of which UA did the same with SFO-CAN and China has tons of frequencies open anyways) and ATL-MAO the second time around. Airlines shouldn't be penalized because they try routes. Blame the DOT for doing such a terrible job of giving out the slots in the first place. (and my guess is they will do a terrible job again. Delta or United will get it and both routes will burn money till Japan removes its stupid flight curfew)

[Edited 2012-08-27 23:23:41]
 
rjm717
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 6:41 am

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 26):
Nearly 100% O&D traffic originating in Japan

Exactly the reason the HND-HNL route has been successful for HA.

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 26):
KOA is only valuable to HA

Must rate as a pretty good reason they submitted the slot pair... (sorry, couldn't help myself)

With the timing restrictions to the mainland still in place for these slots, any carrier will struggle to effectively make HND profitable from points on the west coast or beyond. Clearly a 2nd HND-HNL would be a stretch - but KOA? Interesting move on HA's part.

R
 
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 6:49 am

HA can also funnel pax to Maui with the recently-established OGG inter-island hub. That would be a return to the Tokyo-Kona route since JAZ had the NRT-KOA route.

The only question is, will HA let that A332 sit on the KOA ramp between segments? Or will they fly it up to HNL for other routes, then dispatch an A332 down for the flight to HND?
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 8:04 am

Quoting Bluewave 707 (Reply 30):
The only question is, will HA let that A332 sit on the KOA ramp between segments? Or will they fly it up to HNL for other routes, then dispatch an A332 down for the flight to HND?

If we're lucky and HA is awarded the authority, maybe we'll be able to fly an A332 interisland?   

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 26):
While HND slots are artificially scarce, they can't be wasted in this manner.

Define "waste." HA is the only U.S. airline flying to HND that has operated their authority without any delays or suspensions, as DL and AA have done, and the amount of O&D traffic between Hawaii and Japan is huge. I'm may be biased in saying this, but why shouldn't USDOT award HA another slot when the Mainland routes have been so troublesome, and there's a clear economic benefit to providing air seats to Hawaii for Japanese tourists?

[Edited 2012-08-28 01:09:58]
 
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:44 am

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 28):
I think HA should get it then. IMO Hawaii to HND is the only thing that would make money
Quoting HNLPointShoot (Reply 31):

Define "waste." HA is the only U.S. airline flying to HND that has operated their authority without any delays or suspensions, as DL and AA have done, and the amount of O&D traffic between Hawaii and Japan is huge. I'm may be biased in saying this, but why shouldn't USDOT award HA another slot when the Mainland routes have been so troublesome, and there's a clear economic benefit to providing air seats to Hawaii for Japanese tourists?

The only carrier that has proven to make HND work so well is HA. Yes some of it is better timings due to Hawaiis timezone, and a slightly shorter flying time vs LAX/SFO/PDX/SEA but HA has found success where others have not, so why not award the one carrier that is making HND flights. Yes it would be a leisure route, that's what HA does! Great vacation flights that also are great business flights, and there is a fair amount of those who routinely fly back and forth to the mainland or elsewhere. I vote for HA first, they will make it happen, no one else has shown much game in the market.
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:24 pm

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 26):
Nearly 100% O&D traffic originating in Japan. No argument at all could be made that it benefits the American traveler. It's simply a leisure route so Japanese people can play golf.

Hawaiians are Americans too. More Japanese playing golf, more money for Hawaii's tourism industry, more money for the state coffers through taxes. As others have pointed out, HA actually uses their HND slots rather than asking for extensions and temporary suspensions. I'd rather have the limited slots handed out to carriers that are actually going to use them than carriers who have waffled on past HND offerings.
 
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LAXintl
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 2:13 pm

My take on the proposals;


AA
What else were they going to propose? LAX was a safe choice for AA being a corner-stone, but I can’t ever see DOT tie up 2 of 4 available slots at the same US gateway.

Delta
Predictable they stuck with Seattle. In the original route case DOT came up with some rather good reasons why Seattle was not worthy of the award – the smallest of all local markets, and counting on a code-share partner for feed was tenuous proposition. The only manner I can see DL pull this off, if DOT gives much weight to the JV Alliance card. I found it interesting they now propose the service with a 763 versus original A330. Even they must have seen the light and revised down traffic projections.

Hawaiian
Novel choice with Kona. Previously they had continued to make the argument for a second HNL flight. Never knew demand to Kona was so high that it was the 2nd largest unserved Tokyo longhaul market. But not sure if DOT wants to tie up 2 of the 4 slots in Hawaii, which provides minimal US consumer benefit as bulk of travelers are Japanese origin.

United
Strongest mainland proposal of the bunch. UA SFO hub combined with ANA on the Japan end do provide a broad opportunities for the travelling public. Of course the existence of the ANA JV and UA’s already strong TransPac position is the prime argument against the proposal yet again.
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mogandoCI
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 4:26 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 34):
Hawaiian
Novel choice with Kona. Previously they had continued to make the argument for a second HNL flight. Never knew demand to Kona was so high that it was the 2nd largest unserved Tokyo longhaul market. But not sure if DOT wants to tie up 2 of the 4 slots in Hawaii, which provides minimal US consumer benefit as bulk of travelers are Japanese origin.

I second that .... JL / NH / HA already all fly HNL-HND, and now we need a 4th flight between Hawaii and Haneda ??

Oddly enough, US carriers are more than happy letting planes sit at GRU/EZE for a whole day in order to do profitable red-eyes, but somehow refuse to let a 767 / 777 sit at HND in order to make the flight work.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 34):
United
Strongest mainland proposal of the bunch. UA SFO hub combined with ANA on the Japan end do provide a broad opportunities for the travelling public. Of course the existence of the ANA JV and UA’s already strong TransPac position is the prime argument against the proposal yet again.

I don't think TransPac strength should be a factor - after all, it was DL who already had the most existing NRT access but still got the most HND slots among US carriers.
 
steex
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 4:36 pm

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 35):
I don't think TransPac strength should be a factor - after all, it was DL who already had the most existing NRT access but still got the most HND slots among US carriers.

DL as a carrier had the most US-based NRT flights at the time, but it was clear that DOT evaluated it considering the three alliances, and SkyTeam had by far the least NRT access when compared to the JL/OneWorld and NH/Star Alliance hubs there.
 
mogandoCI
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 4:57 pm

Quoting steex (Reply 36):
DL as a carrier had the most US-based NRT flights at the time, but it was clear that DOT evaluated it considering the three alliances, and SkyTeam had by far the least NRT access when compared to the JL/OneWorld and NH/Star Alliance hubs there.

That's just a convenient excuse DOT used to justify giving it to a city with minimal O&D (DTW) compared to one with stronger business and tourism ties (SFO).

Now in hindsight we could see how bad those DOT decisions were : DTW is completely yanked, while JFK was suspended for a while and probably still struggling despite JV with JAL. In attempting to artificially level the playing field, what DOT ended up doing was screwing the winners by handing them a red ink bleeding route to deal with.
 
steex
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 5:07 pm

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 37):
That's just a convenient excuse DOT used to justify giving it to a city with minimal O&D (DTW) compared to one with stronger business and tourism ties (SFO).

I think that was one of their true objectives up-front, not just an excuse. The question is whether or not it was flawed reasoning to start with - specifically, is it necessary to try to have all three alliances on a level playing field when the two alliances are probably enough to keep each other in check competitively in that particular market?

I think DOT is just as guilty as the carriers of thinking that spreading the wealth geographically and competitively was best for the consumers. The reality has proven to be that it's better for the consumer to allow superior benefit to a smaller subset (i.e., west coast flying on carriers with ability to sustain it) rather than trying to provide much smaller benefit with service to all areas.
 
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 5:16 pm

Quoting HNLPointShoot (Reply 31):
but why shouldn't USDOT award HA another slot when the Mainland routes have been so troublesome, and there's a clear economic benefit to providing air seats to Hawaii for Japanese tourists?

I thought the DOT's purpose was to benefit travellers from the U.S., especially?
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mogandoCI
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 5:38 pm

Quoting steex (Reply 38):
I think DOT is just as guilty as the carriers of thinking that spreading the wealth geographically and competitively was best for the consumers. The reality has proven to be that it's better for the consumer to allow superior benefit to a smaller subset (i.e., west coast flying on carriers with ability to sustain it) rather than trying to provide much smaller benefit with service to all areas.

Totally agreed.
 
AADC10
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 5:43 pm

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 21):
I expect United to get it. Delta doesn't have enough connectivity, another Hawaiian destination just won't be accepted when there is barley service from the mainland and LAX is already served so AA has little to fight with.

UA still has the NH anti-trust exemption going against it since the DOT views NH routes as UA and JL already operates HND-SFO. The other bids are rather ugly and may just provide the cover to allow DL to move DET-HND to SEA-HND. I presume that UA hopes to get some kind of daytime regional Pacific slot for GUM-HND in the future.

Quoting Bluewave 707 (Reply 30):
The only question is, will HA let that A332 sit on the KOA ramp between segments? Or will they fly it up to HNL for other routes, then dispatch an A332 down for the flight to HND?

I suspect they would have to rotate it through HNL because I doubt there are maintenance facilities for an A332 at KOA.
 
steex
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 6:03 pm

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 41):
I suspect they would have to rotate it through HNL because I doubt there are maintenance facilities for an A332 at KOA.

They could rotate to/from HNL by swapping aircraft during the turn at HND, though. I suspect aircraft would be routed HNL-HND-KOA-HND-HNL. Given that the proposed schedule only results in 5 hours of ground time at KOA, I would bet that HA will simply let it sit idle and do some minor maintenance, cleaning, etc. rather than have it do a KOA-HNL-KOA turn.
 
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enilria
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 6:39 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 34):

AA
What else were they going to propose? LAX was a safe choice for AA being a corner-stone, but I can’t ever see DOT tie up 2 of 4 available slots at the same US gateway.

Well, my assumption is that AA would end JFK, or offer to end JFK, since they have already said they would be willing to swap the routes. I can imagine a scenario where the DOT awards AA for LAX and reawards AA's JFK to either DL, HA, or UA.

DL would be a bunch of idiots if they surrendered their slot and it was used to destroy their remaining service because AA would decimate them head to head on LAX-HND. I predict DL would be out in 18 months, quicker if they swallowed their pride sooner.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 34):
Delta
Predictable they stuck with Seattle. In the original route case DOT came up with some rather good reasons why Seattle was not worthy of the award – the smallest of all local markets, and counting on a code-share partner for feed was tenuous proposition. The only manner I can see DL pull this off, if DOT gives much weight to the JV Alliance card. I found it interesting they now propose the service with a 763 versus original A330. Even they must have seen the light and revised down traffic projections.

Yes, the JV is the key. I think fundamentally that since DL has a hub at NRT, it makes little sense for them to be in HND at all. Their eggs are at NRT.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 34):
Hawaiian
Novel choice with Kona. Previously they had continued to make the argument for a second HNL flight. Never knew demand to Kona was so high that it was the 2nd largest unserved Tokyo longhaul market. But not sure if DOT wants to tie up 2 of the 4 slots in Hawaii, which provides minimal US consumer benefit as bulk of travelers are Japanese origin.

I think DL would be happy with this outcome since I think their whole strategy is based less on their desire to fly to HND than their desire to limit AA/UA access to the JV hubs in HND. HA accomplishes the perfect outcome for them. I'd say HA is likely if they did a tandem award where AA's JFK was also reallocated.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 34):
United
Strongest mainland proposal of the bunch. UA SFO hub combined with ANA on the Japan end do provide a broad opportunities for the travelling public. Of course the existence of the ANA JV and UA’s already strong TransPac position is the prime argument against the proposal yet again.

I think if they had asked for ORD they would definitely get it. The question is whether it could be successful, perhaps not. The primary argument against it is the existing non-stop service on JL. The JV is a double edged sword. I think that absent the AA slot swap idea, this is probably the most likely outcome.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 6:48 pm

Quoting steex (Reply 38):
I think DOT is just as guilty as the carriers of thinking that spreading the wealth geographically and competitively was best for the consumers.

Had the slots gotten retimed reasonably quickly, spreading the wealth would have been best for the consumers. I wonder whether DoT assumed that slot retiming would happen.
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PW100
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 8:22 pm

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 37):
In attempting to artificially level the playing field, what DOT ended up doing was screwing the winners by handing them a red ink bleeding route to deal with.

This is the kind of reasoning that I will never be able to understand . . . .

   DL/AA are asking for a route.
   They even go through great deal of reasoning trying to convince the DOT.
   The DOT subsequently awards them for their great reasoning.

And somehow now the DOT is the one who is doing the screwing . . . . too weird to be funny.
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IrishAyes
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 8:44 pm

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 35):
Oddly enough, US carriers are more than happy letting planes sit at GRU/EZE for a whole day in order to do profitable red-eyes, but somehow refuse to let a 767 / 777 sit at HND in order to make the flight work.

Different scenarios entirely. North/Southbound flights to deep South America have always been timed as such because they are preferred by the high-yielding traffic. Evening departures and early morning arrivals on either ends are actually dictated by the passenger in those situations, whereas that is the opposite case with HND. It also helps that the time zone differences are relatively manageable to GRU and EZE, which is also not the case for TYO.

In addition, there is the added fact that HND flights are competing for traffic against pre-existing NRT flights, which dilutes the nature of the yields. Not a condition GRU, EZE, SCL etc. worry about.

Quoting enilria (Reply 43):
Well, my assumption is that AA would end JFK, or offer to end JFK, since they have already said they would be willing to swap the routes. I can imagine a scenario where the DOT awards AA for LAX and reawards AA's JFK to either DL, HA, or UA.

And have the plane from the proposed LAX flight sit at HND from 5 AM until Midnight the following morning?? That certainly cannot be right, unless I am missing something here?

Quoting enilria (Reply 43):
Yes, the JV is the key. I think fundamentally that since DL has a hub at NRT, it makes little sense for them to be in HND at all. Their eggs are at NRT.

Agreed.

Quoting enilria (Reply 43):
I think if they had asked for ORD they would definitely get it. The question is whether it could be successful, perhaps not. The primary argument against it is the existing non-stop service on JL. The JV is a double edged sword. I think that absent the AA slot swap idea, this is probably the most likely outcome.

Doubtful. ORDTYO is already maxed out at 4x daily flights. I'm not sure the market can support a 5th one.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 44):
Had the slots gotten retimed reasonably quickly, spreading the wealth would have been best for the consumers. I wonder whether DoT assumed that slot retiming would happen.

I think that is very likely.
 
SurfandSnow
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:47 pm

Is it just me, or does there appear to be much more interest in getting/hoarding HND slots than actually using them?!? By now everybody knows that these slots - restricted to NRT curfew hours - are virtually worthless, unless you are serving Hawaii. For the U.S. carriers, anyhow. Anybody know how JL's SFO-HND and NH's LAX-HND are doing?

AA - Seems to be a lot more committed to making HND work than DL, but given that the DOT seems to consider each carrier in the context of ATI/JV, I don't see AA/JL/oneworld getting a 4th highly coveted U.S.-HND slot, leaving chief competitors UA/NH/Star Alliance with a mere two slots and DL/SkyTeam with just one. Also, it is important to note that AA's new JFK-HND service ultimately resulted in no additional U.S.-Japan service, seeing as how AA dropped its daily JFK-NRT flight to make it work. Moreover, there is no pressing need for additional LAX-HND service, a route already flown twice daily in addition to a myriad of LAX-NRT flights. In fact, an AA LAX-HND service would probably be the final straw for DL's already struggling LAX-HND service, bringing about yet another HND slot reallocation proceeding...or forcing the DOT to open a can of worms by letting DL switch its slot to a different market. Of course, if DL was given permission to switch, others would expect to be able to follow suit, likely undermining all of the DOT's first round reasoning/justification/consideration/allocation. Now, if AA had proposed a new service to ORD, offering a replacement service from an arguably stronger market and hub in the Midwest, AA might stand a chance here.

Bottom line: AA has no chance of getting this slot. It would give AA/JL/oneworld a grossly unfair advantage in the U.S.-HND realm, and there is absolutely no need for additional LAX-HND service anyway.

DL - In spite of their poor track record with scarce international route authorities, the DOT still gave DL 50% of the HND slots in the original proceeding; ostensibly to level the U.S.-HND playing field between the three major alliances. DL's first choice was SEA-HND, but the DOT came back and told them no: too small of a market. They were still given an opportunity to make two HND slots work based upon their secondary proposals, but DL hardly attempted to make either service work. DL quickly downgauged and suspended BOTH services, and I have a funny feeling that SEA-HND would be déjà vu. They are only now giving LAX a good faith effort so as not to possibly lose all access to HND, and it's probably best that they focus on making that work instead of jeopardizing it with a new SEA-HND flight (LAX pax would then be able to connect through SEA to save money). To its credit, DL actually seems to be doing well (enough) on its new SEA-Asia flights, and AS continues to grow from SEA - offering ever more feed for such a service. Even so, the business case for SEA-HND (restricted to late night and early morning hours) just isn't there. If DL can't appeal to the massive Los Angeles-Tokyo market with service to HND, a convenient gateway to Tokyo and the entire nation of Japan, I don't see any way they could possibly get enough people in the much smaller Seattle market aboard such ill-timed flights to/from HND.

Bottom line: DL has very little chance of getting this slot. DL was given the benefit of the doubt AND cut a lot of slack by the DOT, but still failed to uphold their end of the bargain. There is simply no reason to think they would suddenly change their ways, especially when the U.S. gateway they want to operate from serves a relatively small market overall and is a non-hub (nascent focus city/international gateway) for the airline. They'll be left with one slot, which IMO is all they should have had in the first place.

HA - Deserves credit for not only operating the only uninterrupted U.S.-HND service (by a U.S. carrier) but quickly upgauging the route to their flagship aircraft type. We expected to see them ask for a redundant HNL-HND authority to offer a second daily frequency on this popular route, but knowing full well that would probably never get approved they threw a curve ball by seeking to restore nonstop service between Japan and Kona! Obviously the DOT will be much more receptive to this unique proposal, but there would be virtually no benefit to the traveling American public. HA offers no connectivity beyond KOA, except for interisland markets that can already be reached via their existing HNL service. The economic gain for those living in KOA (and also those working for HA) could be great: if the service proved to be a success. JL had been triangulating KOA services with HNL before quickly cutting it altogether a few years ago - if the king of the Japan-Hawaii market couldn't make KOA work, is it possible that a dedicated nonstop service (in both directions) by an American carrier would ever work?

Bottom line: HA has a slim chance of getting this slot. The DOT will probably praise them for thinking outside the box and fully utilizing their HND slot, but in the interest of the greater American public they will likely award it to some form of mainland-HND service instead of yet another Hawaii-HND flight catering almost exclusively to Japanese tourists.

UA - I figured they had a very strong case last time around; the DOT seemed to think they already had 2 slots to work with thanks to ATI/JV with NH. Given that SFO is the strongest transpacific hub/gateway operated by any single U.S. carrier, with plenty of O&D to Japan and FFers in the Bay Area to boot, I would think the best chance for success to HND would be from SFO on UA. It probably won't do all that well given the time restrictions at HND, but they could always throw a novel 787 on it to minimize capacity and maximize appeal  . That said, as enilria mentioned, UA would be even more favorable if it proposed ORD - a direct Midwestern hub replacement for DTW. Although O&D from Chicago would probably be weaker than from SFO, UA would have had a near-guaranteed chance at getting the slot.

Bottom line: UA has by far the best chance of getting this slot. If the DOT doesn't give this to UA, then UA needs to hire better lobbyists!

Those mentioning US in the context of this HND slot must be joking, right? US has no history of transpacific service, unless you want to count HP's embarrassing stint in the early 90s. US has no brand presence in Japan, no knowledge of the market, and I'm not even sure if any of their aircraft can reach Japan with a profitable payload from any of their hubs. That said, none of their hubs have ever even hosted regularly scheduled nonstop service to Asia. Any Tokyo service from the likes of PHL or PHX would conceivably use NRT, as Tokyo's primary international gateway offers much better access to all major East Asian and Southeast Asian markets than HND.

Bottom line: If established players in the transpacific realm can't make HND services work from primary gateways, imagine what a colossal failure something like PHL-HND or PHX-HND would be!
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LAXintl
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:34 pm

Quoting Surfandsnow (Reply 47):
AA - Seems to be a lot more committed to making HND work than DL

I'm not so sure about that. Like DL they also had the route suspended for the long period, to only return this June.

In addition to Delta's request to move to the slot to SEA, they also asked the DOT to be afforded such latitude as well.
If things were doing well with JFK, I don't believe AA would have attempted to ask the DOT for the flexibility.

Frankly, I think the AA-JL relationship is handicapped. JAL has not worked its way out from its own BK yet, and is still in the network adjustment phase. I dont believe to date JL has provided half the transpac JV benefits for AA that United has been able to garner from its ANA partnership.
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sr117
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RE: DOT 2012 Haneda Route Applications Thread

Wed Aug 29, 2012 3:56 am

Here's a link to each carrier's application, I think UA and DL have the strongest proposals meritwise, but seriously, if one was going strictly by the applications, you'd think that either UA knows they have it in the bag, or they're just not even trying.

UA Proposal: http://www.regulations.gov/#!documentDetail;D=DOT-OST-2010-0018-0301
AA Proposal: http://www.regulations.gov/#!documentDetail;D=DOT-OST-2010-0018-0300
HA Proposal: http://www.regulations.gov/#!documentDetail;D=DOT-OST-2010-0018-0299
DL Proposal: http://www.regulations.gov/#!documentDetail;D=DOT-OST-2010-0018-0298

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