behramjee
Posts: 5034
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RE: Bye Bye BA From Australia?

Fri Sep 07, 2012 2:17 pm

QF currently operate multiple daily flights to SIN from SYD/MEL/BNE/PER put together and yes as a result of the EK alliance most of these might get reduced but at least a daily service from MEL/PER/BNE would likely remain which would nicely feed the BA LHR service and vice versa.

What BA will lose for sure though is the European bound feed that it gets from to/from Australia via LHR !
 
MANfan
Posts: 38
Joined: Tue Sep 28, 2010 10:12 pm

RE: Bye Bye BA From Australia?

Fri Sep 07, 2012 8:53 pm

I disagree with the thought that BA are about to stop operating to Sydney.

They have recently downgraded from a double daily 744 and 772, to a single 744. It might shrink to a single daily 772 from March 2013 and even a 787-9 from 2015, but BA have such a large number of long range hulls available, with more for delivery, without the need to immediately retire 744's.

I just don't see them coming off the route, especially as the 787-9 would operate such a route very efficiently.

Maybe I'll be proved wrong, but I truly believe BA still wish to be a full network airline, and Sydney is symbolic if nothing else.
 
by738
Posts: 3060
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RE: Bye Bye BA From Australia?

Fri Sep 07, 2012 9:04 pm

symbolic means nothing nowadays. It will be dropped quicker than you can say 'vegemite'
 
Viscount724
Posts: 19316
Joined: Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:32 pm

RE: Bye Bye BA From Australia?

Fri Sep 07, 2012 9:10 pm

Quoting behramjee (Reply 50):
What BA will lose for sure though is the European bound feed that it gets from to/from Australia via LHR

The prorate revenue BA gets from that traffic is likely much lower than they can generate by filling those seats with local passengers travelling within Europe.
 
MANfan
Posts: 38
Joined: Tue Sep 28, 2010 10:12 pm

RE: Bye Bye BA From Australia?

Fri Sep 07, 2012 9:12 pm

We'll see. Remember the 744's are all paid for, and although the round trip to Sydney takes a long time, it includes a long period on the ground in Sydney, where the aircraft are not burning fuel. Plenty of new metal starts arriving soon, A380's, 777-300ER's and 787-8's to start operating new LH routes with ex bmi slots.

I certainly think the Sydney route will continue beyond March 2013 when the JSA terminates, whilst BA evaluate how it pans out on their own.
 
mandala499
Posts: 6592
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2001 8:47 pm

RE: Bye Bye BA From Australia?

Sat Sep 08, 2012 6:11 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 32):
LHR-HKG-SYD is very close in path to a hypothetical non-stop LHR-SYD

LHR-BKK-SYD is next, followed by LHR-SIN-SYD and then LHR-DXB-SYD.

Once you reach Asia, BKK/SIN/DXB all have similar paths and the flight miles between them are not that large.

Once you put the airways route structure into it... shortest would be via SIN... Blame the airways structure in China for that. The next shortest would be DXB, then last would be via HKG actually...

Mandala499
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
Airvan00
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RE: Bye Bye BA From Australia?

Sat Sep 08, 2012 6:22 am

For the last couple of months QF1 and QF9 have been, on many days flying over DXB and up the gulf. Maybe its a seasonal thing. At other times on the year it is further north thru Russia. I think the winds are more important than the GC distances.
 
707lvr
Posts: 457
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2004 3:41 am

RE: Bye Bye BA From Australia?

Sat Sep 08, 2012 6:28 am

Talk about the thin end of the wedge. Thank goodness Humpey didn't live to see this disgrace.
 
anstar
Posts: 3180
Joined: Sun Nov 23, 2003 3:49 am

RE: Bye Bye BA From Australia?

Sat Sep 08, 2012 7:53 am

Quoting behramjee (Reply 50):
What BA will lose for sure though is the European bound feed that it gets from to/from Australia via LHR !

I am sure they will more than make up with feed from their new long haul routes. Plus most Aussies would visit more than one european city on their travels and BA may still take them there as part of the oneworld network.
 
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EK413
Posts: 5460
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RE: Bye Bye BA From Australia?

Sat Sep 08, 2012 8:05 am

Quoting AussieItaliano (Reply 35):
I think BA's best bet to serve both Australia and New Zealand will be a JSA with CX.

QF couldn't make it happen so how can BA make it happen..???

EK413
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
jumpjets
Posts: 1452
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 2:17 pm

RE: Bye Bye BA From Australia?

Sat Sep 08, 2012 8:57 am

Quoting anstar (Reply 59):
I am sure they will more than make up with feed from their new long haul routes

Indeed they will - lets not forget this is just one BA flight per day. On a seasonal basis flights to many drestinations - MIA/SFO/CPT go up and down yet the collective will of a.net doesnt go into spasm over the financial impact this might have on BA. Let's all sit back relax and wait for BA to decide on whats best for them and not call in the receiver just yet.
 
qf002
Posts: 3633
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2011 11:14 am

RE: Bye Bye BA From Australia?

Sat Sep 08, 2012 12:38 pm

Quoting traveler_7 (Reply 39):

BA has a far greater opportunity to generate revenue and profit when compared to QF/NZ. This comes down largely to geography -- while BA has literally dozens of large and popular destinations within a 7-10 hour radius, QF/NZ have only a couple.

So in order to reach a profitable scale in their business, QF/NZ have to take advantage of opportunities that European carriers have disregarded because they have better routes to pursue instead.

I'm not sure how true this is, but apparently the corporate flows of traffic are skewed towards Australians travelling to Europe as well. This traffic is far more likely to elect to travel on an Australian carrier rather than a European one (simply because that's where the corporate contracts are).

Quoting anstar (Reply 58):

Also, EK doesn't fly everywhere in Europe. BA serves plenty of destinations that EK doesn't, so I'm sure that there will continue to be some feed from QF's services for connections into smaller cities. No doubt it will be a lot less than today though, but BA still makes by far the most sense as QF's partner in (not to) Europe.
 
richcandy
Posts: 724
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2001 4:49 pm

RE: Bye Bye BA From Australia?

Sat Sep 08, 2012 1:17 pm

Hi

If QF are sending two A380's a day via DXB to LHR are the majority of their passengers travelling all the way to London? Or are they going to have a lot of seats to fill on the DXB-LHR flights?

What I mean is yes it great that lots of cities are going to be reachable from Australia with Qantas and one change at DXB, but it still leave passengers to find at DXB to fill up the flights to LHR and its not as if they are the only airline on the route.

BA used to codeshare with CX from HKG-AKL, I wonder if this will be extended to cities in Australia?

It has been a few years since I worked in the industry but one of the biggest reasons that leisure passengers looked at BA/QF to Aus/NZ was the stopover options. Now that there advantage has sort of gone, then airlines like SQ/CX/KE/TG/MH etc are going to pick up a lot of passengers. There is no reason to pay slightly more for BA or QF.

Alex
 
winglets747
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2007 7:24 am

RE: Bye Bye BA From Australia?

Sun Sep 09, 2012 5:12 am

Contrary to speculation in this thread, BA's SYD service was profitable - not hugely, but profitable.

Going forward there are two scenarios:

1. BA sees SYD as strategically important and continues to serve it albeit with an equipment change - 777 or 787 down the line.

2. Although profitable, the Asia-SYD leg effectively requires its own long-haul aircraft, a big ask for BA now that they have the bmi slots. All that is keeping BA from opening more long-haul routes is effectively aircraft availability. New cities could be more tempting than keeping SYD. BA is really doing a thorough job trying to free up widebodies (consider the A321 that replaced a 767 that in turn allowed the 777 for Seoul) and axing SYD would immediately give one.
Stay hungry. Stay foolish.
 
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FlyCaledonian
Posts: 1950
Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2003 6:18 am

RE: Bye Bye BA From Australia?

Sun Sep 09, 2012 4:54 pm

Quoting winglets747 (Reply 63):
Although profitable, the Asia-SYD leg effectively requires its own long-haul aircraft, a big ask for BA now that they have the bmi slots. All that is keeping BA from opening more long-haul routes is effectively aircraft availability. New cities could be more tempting than keeping SYD. BA is really doing a thorough job trying to free up widebodies (consider the A321 that replaced a 767 that in turn allowed the 777 for Seoul) and axing SYD would immediately give one.

Important point. When BA dropped LHR-SIN-MEL in the mid 2000s the flight was making money. It was just that with the new bilateral with India it was more profitable for BA to drop the SIN-MEL leg and use the aircraft released from this to ad an extra India flight.

Same thing can apply here. If BA finds a suitable partner to handle the Asia-Oz legs, then SIN-SYD can be dropped and BA immediately gets a longhaul aircraft to add a new flight.
Let's Go British Caledonian!
 
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ClassicLover
Posts: 4770
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RE: Bye Bye BA From Australia?

Sun Sep 09, 2012 4:56 pm

Quoting FlyCaledonian (Reply 64):
Important point. When BA dropped LHR-SIN-MEL in the mid 2000s the flight was making money. It was just that with the new bilateral with India it was more profitable for BA to drop the SIN-MEL leg and use the aircraft released from this to ad an extra India flight.

This happens in the industry a lot - dropping a profitable route and opening an even more profitable one. Something some of the fools on here could well do with learning.

Quoting FlyCaledonian (Reply 64):
Same thing can apply here. If BA finds a suitable partner to handle the Asia-Oz legs, then SIN-SYD can be dropped and BA immediately gets a longhaul aircraft to add a new flight.

Who though? SQ?
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
qf002
Posts: 3633
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2011 11:14 am

RE: Bye Bye BA From Australia?

Sun Sep 09, 2012 5:24 pm

Quoting FlyCaledonian (Reply 64):
If BA finds a suitable partner to handle the Asia-Oz legs, then SIN-SYD can be dropped and BA immediately gets a longhaul aircraft to add a new flight.

It might even be more than one aircraft that they free up. If the loss of QF feed at BKK/HKG means reduced traffic on those routes then we could see cuts (ie the 3 weekly LHR-HKG which was supposed to replaced QF29/30) that, combined, release another aircraft or two...
 
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FlyCaledonian
Posts: 1950
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RE: Bye Bye BA From Australia?

Sun Sep 09, 2012 9:23 pm

Quoting ClassicLover (Reply 65):
Who though? SQ?

For SIN-SYD, maybe nobody. BA may be quite happy to hand that traffic over to QF and SQ, just as QF is handing over SIN-LHR to BA and SQ. Indeed, BA may think it's worth dropping SIN-SYD even just to go three times daily LHR-SIN.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 66):
It might even be more than one aircraft that they free up. If the loss of QF feed at BKK/HKG means reduced traffic on those routes then we could see cuts (ie the 3 weekly LHR-HKG which was supposed to replaced QF29/30) that, combined, release another aircraft or two...

Indeed, although if BA developed a deeper relationship with CX now that the JSA is ending, then there might be a need for that third daily LHR-HKG flight to return.

I've posted it already, but I suspect BA will go from three rimes daily to two times daily on the LHR-DXB route, as QF will be a new entrant on that route. A lot of SYD-DXB and MEL-DXB will connect onwards through DXB to other destinations (the whole purpose of the EK link-up), so QF will have some capacity to fill DXB-LHR. I suspect BA will be quite easily able to deploy the aircraft and slot elsewhere if that happens.
Let's Go British Caledonian!
 
sam1987
Posts: 550
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2005 11:27 pm

RE: Bye Bye BA From Australia?

Sat Sep 15, 2012 4:24 pm

Quoting aussie747 (Reply 3):
Yes you will find BA 15/16 with terminate altogether or at least at Singapore come 31MAR13

This hasn't been confirmed anywhere.

Quoting anstar (Reply 6):
I also believe they do quite well on the SYD run so doubt they will drop it
Quoting anstar (Reply 19):
I believe SYD is profitable for them

Do you have a source? I'd be very surprised if VS operate to SYD at a profit.
Next flights: LGW-LBA-LGW, LHR-SIN-SYD, SYD-BKK-LHR, LGW-GRO, GRO-CIA, CIA-MAD, MAD-LGW
 
aviasian
Posts: 1244
Joined: Mon Jan 08, 2001 8:11 am

RE: Bye Bye BA From Australia?

Sat Sep 15, 2012 11:49 pm

Does anyone know if something is cooking between BA and Qatar Airways?

KC Sim
 
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RyanairGuru
Posts: 8213
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

RE: Bye Bye BA From Australia?

Sun Sep 16, 2012 12:30 am

It's rumored, but nothing's official...

QR only fly to MEL and PER - it's my understanding that they can't get SYD frequencies.

OK I'll bite and start a wildly speculative and improbable conspiracy theory: BA change LHR-SIN-SYD to LHR-DOH-SYD, feed QR to PER and MEL at DOH and QR feed the BA service DOH-SYD. I can't imagine that many LHR originating passengers are heading to BNE but if they are they can still connect SYD-BNE with QF since the SYD flight will be OW. This way BA get an Australian network back and QR get into SYD via the back door. Everyone's happy  




Of course the chance of this happening isn't much greater than LH and EK signing a QF style partnership agreement, but it's fun to speculate  
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
nickofatlanta
Posts: 1277
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 1:06 am

RE: Bye Bye BA From Australia?

Sun Sep 16, 2012 2:00 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 70):
Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 70):

My understanding is that Qatar is allowed to fly to two Australian cities including Sydney. They have mentioned the competitive environment and the Sydney Airport curfew as the reasons they don't fly there. They would have problems flying a similar schedule to SYD as they do to MEL.
 
richardw
Posts: 3168
Joined: Tue May 08, 2001 3:17 am

RE: Bye Bye BA From Australia?

Sun Sep 16, 2012 9:15 am

But would BA and QF still interline at BKK, HKG and SIN?
 
nickofatlanta
Posts: 1277
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 1:06 am

RE: Bye Bye BA From Australia?

Sun Sep 16, 2012 10:02 am

Quoting richardw (Reply 72):
But would BA and QF still interline at BKK, HKG and SIN?

Almost certainly yes for interlining - a very common practice for airlines. Less certain is whether they codeshare on these routes. The connection times may not be as seamless between the two airlines as they are today - for example, in Bangkok where the schedule is now the below as a result of the BA flight no longer continuing to Sydney and the QF flight no longer continuing to LHR.
QF23 SYD-BKK 1215pm 650pm
BA10 BKK-LHR 1220am 625am
BA9 LHR-BKK 1005pm 320pm (next day)
QF24 BKK-SYD 855pm 905am (next day)
Interesting that QF has downgraded their flight to A330 whilst BA continues to utilise a 744.
 
qf002
Posts: 3633
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2011 11:14 am

RE: Bye Bye BA From Australia?

Sun Sep 16, 2012 11:50 am

Quoting nickofatlanta (Reply 73):

The difference will be that BA will have to time their flights to work with QF's schedules if they want to send passengers onto Australia on QF services, whereas QF has been the one timing their services to work wit BA's schedule in Asia since the changes in March.

That will be difficult to do because QF's services out of Asia (aside from those linked to Europe at the moment) tend to leave late at night for morning arrivals, and the LHR curfew mean that even the latest BA flights to SE Asia arrive mid/late afternoon, which makes for a 5-6 hour connection in many cases...

It's not as bad going in the other direction, but there are still big gaps (ie 4ish hours) which is far from ideal.
 
ZuluAlpha
Posts: 327
Joined: Sun Mar 21, 2010 7:22 am

RE: Bye Bye BA From Australia?

Sun Sep 16, 2012 12:07 pm

Quoting richardw (Reply 72):

But would BA and QF still interline at BKK, HKG and SIN?
Quoting nickofatlanta (Reply 73):
Almost certainly yes for interlining - a very common practice for airlines. Less certain is whether they codeshare on these routes

QF will be dropping the codeshare that it has with BA (as well as the codeshare it has with AF into CDG and CX into FCO and probably the others as well), it will help gain approval from the Australian anti-competitive commission (ACCC).

Yes there will still be an interline agreement between QF and BA (most likely only useable for flights on the Oneworld fares, as all standard return airfares From Australia to Europe will be based on using QF and EK equipment and flight numbers.
Flown on:_CRJ, CR7 D10 DHT DH8, DH2, DH3, DH4, EMB, E45, E75, E90, F28 J32 M80 SH6 320, 32B, 332, 333, 380, 717, 732, 733, 734, 73H, 743, 744, 752 762, 763, 772, 77W
 
richardw
Posts: 3168
Joined: Tue May 08, 2001 3:17 am

RE: Bye Bye BA From Australia?

Sun Sep 16, 2012 1:00 pm

Could BA operate some peak season flights to SYD with its own metal, if available due to low season reductions at the same period to elsewhere?
 
TC957
Posts: 3696
Joined: Wed May 23, 2012 1:12 pm

RE: Bye Bye BA From Australia?

Sun Sep 16, 2012 1:40 pm

If BA are so dependant on aircraft availability to start new routes as has been suggested here then they could pull the remaining 744's out of VCV storage. OK, they'll likely need a costly D check each but then BA could have them back in service in less than 2 months or so. Still well before any new aircraft now on order are delivered.
 
jfk777
Posts: 7249
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

RE: Bye Bye BA From Australia?

Mon Sep 17, 2012 6:59 pm

Other then the 12 A380 and a couple of 77W every year what is the BA long haul fleet plan, if they order today its still years until delivery. Even if BA doesn't have 77W in 2030 they need more then what they have for the next 10 years to replace the older 744 fleet. NO A350's in the fleet paln & 24 787 is the 767 replacement fleet.
 
traveler_7
Posts: 448
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 12:45 am

RE: Bye Bye BA From Australia?

Mon Sep 17, 2012 11:05 pm

Quoting BA174 (Reply 46):
Quoting traveler_7 (Reply 39):
Perhaps it is a stupid question to ask but I do not understand
Why Qantas or Air NZ may serve London with their own metal and BA could not?

Regards,
Sven


Basically London is a much more lucrative destination for NZ and QF than SYD is for BA who have got better things to do with their aircraft than trundle them all the way to SYD which takes 3/4 days to complete the rotation per aircraft.

How in this case Virgin Atlantic makes money on the LHR-HKG-SYD flights? Or at least manages to operate rout with own metal?

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