Let the beatings begin on why SWA to Hawaii isn't a good idea. I for one can't wait.

http://www.staradvertiser.com/news/b...eaking/170752786.html?id=170752786

Quote:

"Flight attendants have approved contract changes that will allow the carrier to operate flights to the islands and near-international destinations."

[Edited 2012-09-21 14:59:35]

This is good news for the Hawaiian economy, more flights (especially more LCC flights) equals more tourism dollars of which the islands are dependent. I'll start the speculation:

OAK-HNL
OAK-OGG
OAK-LIH
OAK-KOA
LAS-HNL

STT757,

I'll go with all but Vegas only because when Aloha was around they would have to make fuel stops, so maybe a LAS-OAK-HNL.

I would not be surprised to see OAK, LAX, SAN as the Hawaiian gateways.

Bags fly free on greyhound to HNL   

US787

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 3):

PHX? HOU? SAN?

Quoting usairways787 (Reply 4): Bags fly free on greyhound to HNL

This wouldn't be the first "Greyhound to HNL", if you were ever lucky/unlucky enough to fly on either Total Air or Air America you'll know what I mean.

Quote: PHX? HOU? SAN?

Well I did say SAN but PHX may be reachable (not sure) but it would probably be too tight for SWA and HOU is not reachable without stoping. I could see PHX and HOU as well as others served with a no plane change but not nonstop

Good news. Don't mind another competitor in the Hawaii market. They have a lot of route pairings to work with too.

Quoting hiloboy1 (Thread starter): Let the beatings begin on why SWA to Hawaii isn't a good idea. I for one can't wait.

In reviewing the Hawaii market from the western U.S. at this point, this is what we have:


HNL:

AS - ANC / BLI / SEA / PDX / SJC / OAK / SAN
G4 - BLI / BOI / EUG / FAT / LAS / MRY / AZA / SMX / GEG / SCK
HA - SEA / PDX / SJC / OAK / SFO / SMF / LAX / SAN / LAS / PHX
AA - LAX / SFO
UA - SFO / LAX
DL - SEA / LAX / SLC
US - PHX

OGG -

AS - ANC / BLI / SEA / PDX / SJC / OAK / SMF / SAN
G4 - BLI
HA - SEA / SFO / OAK / LAX / LAS
AA - LAX
UA - LAX / SFO
DL - LAX / SLC
US - PHX

KOA -

AS - ANC / SEA / PDX / SJC / OAK
AA - LAX
UA - SFO / LAX
DL - LAX
US - PHX

LIH -

AS - SEA / PDX / SJC / OAK
AA - LAX
UA - SFO / LAX
DL - LAX
US - PHX


It's not as though there is only room for one airline in any particular market but over the last year Alaska, Allegiant and, to an extent, Hawaiian have all filled in the gaps in the thinner markets. Where are the opportunities? Southwest's -800's won't go beyond the west coast without taking significant hits on the loads they can carry. I'm not beating up WN, they have a good product. I just don't see a whole lot of opportunity here for them. I think if they try to move into the Hawaii market they will only dilute yields for themselves and everyone else. Where I do think there IS a lot of opportunity for Southwest is in creating niche markets from the south, midwest and eastern U.S. (and to an extent, the southwestern U.S.) to cities in the Caribbean and northern South America. They have experience in these markets via AirTran already. The potential to use the aircraft for more than one round trip is much greater should they deploy them in this way - which is a big deal for WN. Flying aircraft to/from Hawaii pretty much renders that aircraft useless for much else. Just my thoughts - again, not trying to beat up on anyone, just the way I see it.

WN serves over 100,000,000 people each year currently, I'm sure some of them would stick with WN to Hawaii too. WN has a lot of connection possibilities.

Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 9): Where are the opportunities?

You can't assume that just because there are certain carriers on a route means those carriers have locked in and have "taken their share" of passengers. WN can come in and easily leech of the other carriers to fill their planes even if the route has many carriers. WN has a very good brand and reputation among many loyal travelers

I think it makes a lot of sense... they tend to go to a lot of leisure routes and do well. Why not HI?

Quoting usairways787 (Reply 4): Bags fly free on greyhound to HNL

I didn't realize that Greyhound had started flying planes?  

Don't really see the point of comments like these unless hey are to showcase the immaturity of the poster.

Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 9): It's not as though there is only room for one airline in any particular market but over the last year Alaska, Allegiant and, to an extent, Hawaiian have all filled in the gaps in the thinner markets.

I don't think the expansion into Hawaii is going to be very large for WN. It is mainly going to be to serve those who choose WN first on their existing travels, but don't have the option to the islands. If anything it is more about customer retention and serving the existing base while benefiting from expanding it a bit.

Don't know if it been discussed or not but would HNL need more room for expansion should more LLC or legacy airlines add HNL to their route structure? As I've never been there I don't know but being on an island one can only build up and not out after a while.

Quote: It's not as though there is only room for one airline in any particular market

I think SWA will try to not replace airlines flights but expand flights in Hawaii. OGG, KOA and LIH have a lot of opportunity and I could easily see them becoming the largest carrier their. HNL is just a given that they will serve. It has a lot of flights but I could see them doing well their too. They have a vast route network to connect with.

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 10): WN serves over 100,000,000 people each year currently, I'm sure some of them would stick with WN to Hawaii too. WN has a lot of connection possibilities.

Very true how ever they will face stiff competition and to top it off those sectors will require more aircraft dedicated and tied up to those route. Do I think they will add it? YES Will they storm in and change the market completely? No. They will be another option and thats about it. It will also tap into the demand of its loyal fliers although if they are so pent up to go to Hawaii chances are they have and have experienced the far superior Hawaiian product which WN is at a disadvantage to.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 12): Don't really see the point of comments like these unless hey are to showcase the immaturity of the poster.

I don't believe this has anything to do with maturity, it's a nickname that has been around since SWA began to fly outside of Texas. As a matter of fact one of Southwest's Senior Pilot who is a good friend of mine since the mid 80's jokingly calls it that.

SWA to Hawaii will do what they've done for years, take folks where they want to go for a decent fare.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 12): I didn't realize that Greyhound had started flying planes? Don't really see the point of comments like these unless hey are to showcase the immaturity of the poster.

Hardly immature, sense of humor yes...

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 12): I didn't realize that Greyhound had started flying planes?

They did for little while ...


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Photo © Hans-Werner Klein


 

If WN has an operation in the islands, I wonder if they will also do some intra-hawaii stuff too.

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 10): WN serves over 100,000,000 people each year currently, I'm sure some of them would stick with WN to Hawaii too. WN has a lot of connection possibilities.

I'm sure that there are some folks that would fly WN over other carriers because of their loyalty to them. Every airline has some loyal travelers. WN travelers have long been known for seeking value though and I don't see what value Southwest could offer over other carriers. As far as connections go, unless WN starts flying red eye flights the connection opportunities are limited to the western U.S., much of which is either already served nonstop or has a variety of connection opportunities already. Southwest has missed the boat on being able to offer something that isn't already offered. Another thought to consider where connections are concerned - Hawaii is not a huge destination from the southern, midwest and eastern part of the U.S. Many of those folks will opt for Florida or the Caribbean because it's closer and a whole lot more affordable. Southwest will never be able to bring fares down to a level that will make Hawaii an option for someone in Birmingham (or any other Southwest city on that side of the country) that is considering Florida or the Caribbean over Hawaii.

Southwest is well known for their "Southwest effect" which stimulates demand and creates opportunities for people to travel via air that might not normally, either because of previously high fares on other carriers or lack of nonstop service. I don't think it's going to be as effective in any of the Hawaii markets they could potentially serve. I can't see where Southwest can offer fares any lower than those already offered and still make money. All I can see them doing is moving in, adding flights and diluting the yields for others and for themselves. That just my opinion though.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 11): You can't assume that just because there are certain carriers on a route means those carriers have locked in and have "taken their share" of passengers. WN can come in and easily leech of the other carriers to fill their planes even if the route has many carriers. WN has a very good brand and reputation among many loyal travelers I think it makes a lot of sense... they tend to go to a lot of leisure routes and do well. Why not HI?

I agree. I don't think that ,by WN adding flights, they will stimulate a whole lot of additional demand - I think they will just take some customers that may have flown on other airlines, only diluting yields for others and for themselves. I think the pie will be pretty much the same size, just one more airline taking a piece of it. As far as them going to a lot of destinations that are primarily leisure oriented - they do. LAS and MCO are two very large stations for them. Both offer multiple nonstop and connecting opportunities to reach nearly every other city in their system. Absent red eye flights, the opportunities would be significantly limited for them from Hawaii, primarily to the west coast, much of which is already served from Hawaii. I think it would only further dilute yields that will, most probably, already be diluted for the reasons stated above. Just my two cents.

Southwest executives are smart people. They run the most profitable airline any of us have ever known. They are prudent in executing decisions about where they send their most valuable assets. Maybe they will fly to Hawaii but even if they ultimately do that, I don't believe it will be a significant operation at all.

[Edited 2012-09-21 16:57:02]

I think the redeye flying being attached to this agreement will enable them to do an efficient operation to and from HNL and whereever else they decide to fly. I doubt 100percent they will do interisland as they don't have the right sized aircraft as the 717's are leaving the fleet.

Quote: unless WN starts flying red eye flights

They have said they intend to and with the FA vote passing today they now can.

Quote: I don't see what value Southwest could offer over other carriers

Well they bring 2 free bags which is big b/c if you are going that far you go for a while, Wi-Fi and TV via Row44 which Gogo can't offer yet (at least I dont think so) and most importantly they bring a large frequent flier base.

You don't have to have something special to be in the market. What did AS really bring special? (Don't get me wrong, AS great airline, but to say WN brings nothing special, first off they do, none the less; AS didn't bring anything special but they succeeded in Hawaii.)

Quote: I don't believe it will be a significant operation at all.

Assume each destinations is tied to 3 Hawaiian gateways (LAX, OAK, SAN) each with 2 flights that is 6 flights per city. That is without SWA even thinking about doing maybe one SNA or one this or that. Its not going to be a small city. Not Denver but not 2 or 3 flights.

WN is not very good at transcons (HI flights would be similar in stage), or competing with AS, which is already in HI in a big way. I'm not sure what WN brings to the market that is not already there in spades. This is going to be very challenging for WN and very interesting to watch.

Quote: WN is not very good at transcons (HI flights would be similar in stage)

With Redeye's they will get a lot better.

Quote: or competing with AS

WN can easily compete with AS should they want to but AS and WN are focused on different things thus WN doesn't care. People are mentioning the flights in Boise and all of those cities in the Northwest. SWA is evolving and the new SWA is not as focused on the Northwest so they are ending some flights and people are saying its because of AS and it is not.

[Edited 2012-09-21 17:36:34]

Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 9): UA - SFO / LAX

UA also does it from DEN on a 763, the 11:55am departure.

Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 9): I just don't see a whole lot of opportunity here for them.

I agree. WN should have pounced on this a long time ago. The 738 has been offered for a long time from Boeing. I only question as to why WN decided to do this now, late in the game, when they had their chance before AS started doing Hawaii. I see WN struggling in these markets...... Because:

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 23): WN is not very good at transcons

   WN is in for a rude awakening, IMO.

Quote: WN is in for a rude awakening, IMO.

With redeyes they will improve drastically.

Quote: I see WN struggling in these markets.

With their frequent flier base alone they can handle Hawaii. And they bring a lot to the table.

i.e. A business traveler or leisure traveler that wants to get work or surf the web on such a long flight can not rely on an airline with Gogo which leaves ViaSat which is not out yet or Row44 which SWA has.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 24): WN can easily compete with AS should they want to

Currently they can't. Even if they choose to, since AS has lower costs, first class, a competent res system, and assigned seats.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 26): With their frequent flier base alone they can handle Hawaii. And they bring a lot to the table.

That will help. Plus Southwest Vacations is a pretty strong driver.

Quote: Currently they can't. Even if they choose to, since AS has lower costs, first class, a competent res system, and assigned seats.

Yes, they can. They compete and have beaten AS in many routes.

Quote: lower costs, first class, a competent res system, and assigned seats.

Lower costs but SWA can fly with higher yielding pax because they have a loyal customer base, are well known and have a vast route network, one class and open seating is what sets SWA apart and what helped SWA grow to what it is today. And a res system has nothing to do with being able to compete with AS.

[Edited 2012-09-21 17:54:25]

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 28): They compete and have beaten AS in many routes.

Like what routes? Intra-Cali, I'll give you that, but what other routes does WN beat AS on?

Quote: Like what routes?

I had a list but it is not on my new computer for some reason. It included multiple routes outside of cali.

We can go on all day debating if SWA can compete with AS. The answer is yes. Vis-Versa as well. AS can compete with SWA.

The thing that gets me is the people saying SWA has ended so many routes in the Northwest because of AS. No, they ended it because the are evolving into an airline that doesn't need so many flights in the Northwest (i.e. Boise etc...)

[Edited 2012-09-21 18:16:19]

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 3): I would not be surprised to see OAK, LAX, SAN as the Hawaiian gateways

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 12): I don't think the expansion into Hawaii is going to be very large for WN.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 22): Assume each destinations is tied to 3 Hawaiian gateways (LAX, OAK, SAN) each with 2 flights that is 6 flights per city.

I would agree that this is the ballpark where WN would begin service to The Islands, although, airliner', I guess you're just figuring on 3 Hawaiian destinations and not all 4 islands? I would expect to see WN set up shop in HNL, OGG, KOA and LIH with 1 or 2 daily flights each from the westcoast gateways that you mention. I could certainly see 10-15 daily roundtrips across the Pacific.

Each gateway has lots of connecting opportunities, especially with red-eyes scheduled from the Islands to the gateways, and I think almost every flight would continue beyond the gateway to LAS, PHX, HOU, MDW, BNA, and of course, DEN, etc. Operationally, they should then be able to fly unrestricted over the ocean, while providing thru-plane, no change, direct service to the other hubs mentioned.

Of course on the w/b flights TO Hawaii, WN would not be able to do their usual 25-30 minute ground stops at the westcoast gateways due to ETOPS inspections and all, so the thru pax heading west would have a bit of a layover in SAN, LAX and OAK. (And, come to think of it, WN wouldn't be able to due quick turns in the Islands either. But with probable red-eyes on a majority of the e/b flights, I doubt that will be a factor.)

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 23): I'm not sure what WN brings to the market that is not already there in spades. This is going to be very challenging for WN and very interesting to watch.

  

I wonder what time frame we are now looking at for a possible start-up of these routes?

bb

Quote: guess you're just figuring on 3 Hawaiian destinations

No, my bad, poor wording on my part. 3 US mainland gateways to HNL, OGG, KOA and LIH.

I wonder if they are copying AS or WestJet. WestJet has a 757 flying there so maybe WN will get one too. I would fly WestJet over WN as they have PTVs. WN doesn't, right?

Quoting SANFan (Reply 31): I wonder what

Well they bring 2 free bags which is big b/c if you are going that far you go for a while, Wi-Fi and TV via Row44 which Gogo can't offer yet (at least I dont think so) and most importantly they bring a large frequent flier base.

A business traveler or leisure traveler that wants to get work or surf the web on such a long flight can not rely on an airline with Gogo which leaves ViaSat which is not out yet or Row44 which SWA has.

They bring some new things, but, none the less, they don't need something revolutionary to go to Hawaii. AS didn't bring anything where as SWA brings some things.

Quote: I would fly WestJet over WN as they have PTVs.

I doubt SWA will fly Hawaii to Canada as they don't currently even serve Canada.

[Edited 2012-09-21 18:25:19]

With the FA ratification vote we are likely to see SJU before HI service. Airtran currently flies to SJU from ATL, TPA, FLL and BWI. With Near International/Overwater flying approved, SJU flights will be moved from Airtran to Southwest. Hawaii will probably come after this.

I certainly hope the Caribbean area comes online before HI. AK as well for that matter. Will be interesting to see where the flights will be from.

Quoting luvfa (Reply 35): With the FA ratification vote we are likely to see SJU before HI service. Airtran currently flies to SJU from ATL, TPA, FLL and BWI. With Near International/Overwater flying approved, SJU flights will be moved from Airtran to Southwest. Hawaii will probably come after this.

You missed MCO. We will probably see TPA, FLL, MCO, BWI and maybe 2 new cities go to WN but until that codeshare is in place FL will probably keep the SJU-ATL.

Quoting mtnwest1979 (Reply 36): I certainly hope the Caribbean area comes online before HI. AK as well for that matter. Will be interesting to see where the flights will be from.

I bet HI will come in before 2014/5 when FL international converts to WN. Same for AK. The only Caribbean destination to come before HI might be SJU.

A strong rumor has it that WN will start into Hawaii with a bang.
Service will enter into the islands to HNL, OGG and KOA
From the mainland cities include, SEA, PDX, OAK, SJC, SMF, LAX, ONT, SNA and SAN to start. (yes start)
No SFO due to luggage restrictions at there bag room down below. No BUR because of weight restrictions.

I am sure LAS and PHX will follow at a later time.

Quoting flyer737sw (Reply 38): A strong rumor has it that WN will start into Hawaii with a bang.

I have heard this rumor as well. SWA could be taking a while not only for the contract to pass but to get enough -800s to operate all of this.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 34): AS didn't bring anything where as SWA brings some things.

AS service is a hell of a lot better than what WN offers. WN offers the bare minimum, to me, outside of the free checked bag charade.

Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 40): AS service is a hell of a lot better than what WN offers. WN offers the bare minimum, to me, outside of the free checked bag charade.

Thats your opinion. I gave you facts of what WN brings.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 41):

AS offers wifi on most of their aircraft, you know that, right? I find AS wifi much better than what WN offers. WN's wifi is nothing to write home about except it's slow and cheap crap.

And the bags fly free on WN is really a marketing gimmick. Pax are still paying bag fees, it's indirectly included in their ticket price.

Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 42): AS offers wifi on most of their aircraft, you know that, right? I find AS wifi much better than what WN offers. WN's wifi is nothing to write home about except it's slow and cheap crap.

Yes I do know that, but Gogo doesn't work over the Pacific ocean.

Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 42): And the bags fly free on WN is really a marketing gimmick. Pax are still paying bag fees, it's indirectly included in their ticket price.

It may be a gimmick but it works. Southwest continues to fill its planes so I don't see how the fares matter in this case.

Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 9): HNL: AS - ANC / BLI / SEA / PDX / SJC / OAK / SAN G4 - BLI / BOI / EUG / FAT / LAS / MRY / AZA / SMX / GEG / SCK HA - SEA / PDX / SJC / OAK / SFO / SMF / LAX / SAN / LAS / PHX AA - LAX / SFO UA - SFO / LAX DL - SEA / LAX / SLC US - PHX

DL also serves HNL from SFO departs 1850 on a 753
UA from DEN at 1155 with 763

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 14):

Ogg and LIH, the Largest Carrier?? Really?? when were you there last?? I know they could land at the Interisland Terminal at HNL and replace the Aloha Service, But I Doubt they'll become the largest at ANY station in Hawaii...
are they flying inter-island without Hawaiian in the mix?? Or?? To the outer island Airports alone?? I doubt that!
WN will be just another airline To Hawaii unless they're Giving a LOT of seats away..

Quoting hiloboy1 (Reply 6): This wouldn't be the first "Greyhound to HNL", if you were ever lucky/unlucky enough to fly on either Total Air or Air America you'll know what I mean.

Or United...

Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 20): Southwest is well known for their "Southwest effect" which stimulates demand and creates opportunities for people to travel via air that might not normally, either because of previously high fares on other carriers or lack of nonstop service. I don't think it's going to be as effective in any of the Hawaii markets they could potentially serve. I can't see where Southwest can offer fares any lower than those already offered and still make money. All I can see them doing is moving in, adding flights and diluting the yields for others and for themselves. That just my opinion though.

WN is no longer a low-fare carrier. A flight on WN is competitive with other carriers. People who choose to fly WN do so because they are friendly, efficient, honest, and they take good care of their passengers when things go wrong. HA and WN both offer (in different ways) an outstanding customer service. When people fly to Hawaii, that's what they want.

I would be curious to see if WN moves some 717's to HNL to serve as in-state feeders.

Quoting flyer737sw (Reply 38): From the mainland cities include, SEA, PDX, OAK, SJC, SMF, LAX, ONT, SNA and SAN to start.

If this rumor turns out to be true, I will be extremely surprised. That's a LOT of stations to have to staff with ETOPS-trained people and special equipment (I'm sure there must be certain things needed to perform the inspections and repairs if needed...) I believe it's been determined that the -800 cannot fly out of SNA (one probable reason that AS doesnt't fly to Hawaii from John Wayne.) This sized operation would also require a huge amount of employees, equipment, facilities, and other resources in the Islands all at once.

That's pretty much every west coast station WN serves except BUR and SFO (which you explained) and especially for a start, that just seems unrealistic for a completely new destination-area.

bb

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 46): I would be curious to see if WN moves some 717's to HNL to serve as in-state feeders.

Those 717s are going to DL. They might deploy them there for the time being but I don't see a sustained inter-island feeder (why start it up only to close it down?)

Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 25): The 738 has been offered for a long time from Boeing. I only question as to why WN decided to do this now, late in the game

When they started looking at larger planes, Boeing was planning on having the 737RS EIS in the 2016-2018 range at the latest with the engines being the hold up. Then the 787 program went off the rails and changed that. So WN lost time, yet it wasn't certain they would have ordered them since this was also the time period where they defered thier existing 73G orders.

Its certainly been only recently in the last few years that WN has felt the pressure for larger frames with the lack of fleet growth, more cities they have maxed out the avalible gates, and general load factors much higher than decades before.