Which Flagship European Al Could Order The 737MAX?

LY777 · Thu Oct 04, 2012 11:43 am

Which flagship European Airlines could order the 737MAX?
Indeed, most of them (if not all) fly the A32S...
Will we have the chance to get more diversity?

jfk777 · Thu Oct 04, 2012 11:51 am

KLM has a huge 737 fleet with many -800 & -900 versions. Though Air France flies A320 there is no reason KLM couldn't continue to fly 737's.

LY777 · Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:14 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 1):
KLM has a huge 737 fleet with many -800 & -900 versions. Though Air France flies A320 there is no reason KLM couldn't continue to fly 737's.

I hope KLM will get 737Max...Besides KLM, I don't see any other carrier. SAS, which operates 737NGs, has switched to A320Neo

acelanzarote · Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:20 pm

Longer term...Air Europa, Thomson, HapagFly, Jetairfly, Arkefly.. Air Berlin....??

Clydenairways · Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:25 pm

Quoting LY777 (Thread starter):
Which flagship European Airlines could order the 737MAX?

What's a Flagship Airline ?
Ryanair ?

Or do you mean a former Flag Carrier type of Airline?

B777LRF · Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:26 pm

Yup, KLM pretty much sums it up. SAS, another possible contender, has gone for the A320neo. Airlines who are not "married" to Boeing will probably find that 2+2=4, whereas those who are will have to convince themselves that, actually, 1+2 is also 4. In short, I don't believe for a second a MAX will be anywhere near as efficient as a GTF powered neo.

On a somewhat related notion, my gut tells me the 8MAX and 9MAX will need very long runways indeed due to the reduce tail clearance vs the -800 and -900 on rotation. E.g. when you have a challenging starting point in the -800 and -900, raising the nose ain't going to do nothing good for runway performance. To put it bluntly, I fear the MAX8 and 9 may well turn out to be a dogs in this respect.

Heavierthanair · Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:35 pm

G´day

Quoting LY777 (Reply 2):
SAS, which operates 737NGs, has switched to A320Neo

In another anut thread we have eliminated SAS from the ever shorter list of flagship carriers.

Quoting clydenairways (Reply 4):
What's a Flagship Airline ?

My understanding of a flagship carrier is an airline providing a minimum of service even in the back of the plane, without having to pay for gadgets like boarding passes, seat reservation, checked bags, booze or even water and the like. There are not many left, to my knowledge there is none left in the US of A, few in Europe, some of those species are still active and successful in Asia.

Cheers

Peter

scbriml · Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:45 pm

I don't think it's by any means guaranteed that existing A320 operators will order neo. We have already seen SilkAir, an established A320 operator order 737Max. Likewise, we've seen 737 operators ordering neos.

As the timeline for an all-new single-aisle replacement moves further out, the decision if and when to switch OEMs becomes easier.

LY777 · Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:02 pm

Quoting clydenairways (Reply 4):
What's a Flagship Airline ?

A flagship carrier is, for me, what we used to call "National airlines":
AF for France
BA for UK
LH for Germany
IB for Spain
...

Aesma · Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:25 pm

Outside of KLM it's also possible that Transavia (owned by the AF-KLM group) would order some, they fly 737s and AF announced the fleet would grow, albeit before the Max introduction, so long term who knows.

G500 · Thu Oct 04, 2012 2:35 pm

Quoting acelanzarote (Reply 3):
Longer term...Air Europa, Thomson, HapagFly, Jetairfly, Arkefly.. Air Berlin....??

what about Austrian, SAS and Turkish?

aerokiwi · Thu Oct 04, 2012 3:01 pm

Um, Ryanair? I realise people will object to the term "flagship", but let's face it, they fly a ton more passengers than a lot of what have been identified as "flagship" so far.

Mortyman · Thu Oct 04, 2012 3:30 pm

Norwegian has 100 Boeing 737 8 Max on order + 100 options.

But I guess it does'nt fall in under flag carrier. However with the way SAS runs it's business, it may soon be ....

JU068 · Thu Oct 04, 2012 3:39 pm

Hmmm I could see Aerosvit order a few of them sometime in the future. Ukraine is a market with a lot of potential.

anstar · Thu Oct 04, 2012 3:44 pm

I wouldn't say KL is a given at all. Going forward if the AF/KL group is to continue to streamline and drive efficiencies I'd expect them to have a common short haul fleet. Also KL have only recently gotten rid of the last of their 733's so I don't think they are due an order just yet.

FI642 · Thu Oct 04, 2012 3:50 pm

There is a very good chance no European Flag carrier will order the MAX. Airbus is a "home grown" product, and
has made huge inroads into what was once Boeing Territory. Even LH who it was once said "They will order Boeing
even if it goes underwater and backwards" has quite the Airbus Fleet now.

Carriers must operate what they feel best meets their needs.

Clydenairways · Thu Oct 04, 2012 3:59 pm

Quoting LY777 (Reply 8):
A flagship carrier is, for me, what we used to call "National airlines":
AF for France
BA for UK
LH for Germany
IB for Spain

Ok then, so here are my guesses, leaving out LCC's and Charter carriers.

KLM (Strong Chance)
Turkish (Strong Chance)
LOT (Strong Chance)
SAS (Medium Chance)
BA (Small Chance)
EI (Small Chance)
IB (No Chance)
AF(No Chance)
LH (Small Chance)
AY (Small Chance)
SR (Small Chance)
AZ (No Chance)
TP (No Chance)
SN (Medium Chance)
LUX (Strong Chance)
OS (Small Chance)
OK (Small Chance)
RO (Medium Chance)
LZ (Small Chance)
SU (Medium Chance)
OA (No Chance)
CY (No Chance)

mauriceb · Thu Oct 04, 2012 9:37 pm

Although HV isn't a flagship carrier, it belongs to a flagship Airline group, and together with KL (if they go on with the 737 series, which i expect them to do) we will probably see a signifcant order of 70+ frames on long term.

In addition to LOT, KLM, Turkish, without being flagship carriers, other major airlines that are likely to order the Max are

-Air Berlin
-Ryanair
-Tui Group
-Air Europe

Also there is a chance of EasyJet ordering the 737max.. although with the remaining A320's on order, i expect them to go on with the NEO.

Mortyman · Thu Oct 04, 2012 9:45 pm

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 12):
Norwegian has 100 Boeing 737 8 Max on order + 100 options.

But I guess it does'nt fall in under flag carrier. However with the way SAS runs it's business, it may soon be ....

Norwegian has also 100 Airbus 320 Neo on order + 50 options.

Boeing B737 8 MAx deliveries from 2017

Airbus 320 Neo deliveries from 2015

boysteve · Thu Oct 04, 2012 10:05 pm

Quoting clydenairways (Reply 16):
BA (Small Chance)
EI (Small Chance)
IB (No Chance)

I do find it strange that you view BA & IB differently given thier ownership, there is nothing to stop IAG mixing things up. If their is a business case for brand new aircraft at MAD but not for BA's LGW fleet then some of the used short haul fleet at IB could be moved to LGW and replaced by brand new planes from wherever.

Viscount724 · Thu Oct 04, 2012 10:11 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 1):
KLM has a huge 737 fleet with many -800 & -900 versions.

Compared to European 737 operators like Ryanair and Norwegian, I wouldn't consider KL's fleet of 44 737NGs "huge". 18 -700s, 21 -800s and only 5 -900s.

phxa340 · Thu Oct 04, 2012 11:36 pm

Quoting boysteve (Reply 19):
I do find it strange that you view BA & IB differently given thier ownership

I am actually thinking that Boeing is going to target BA very aggressively with the MAX and that they might succeed (Do not flame me for this). Recent comments by Boeing says they are VERY eager to flip a 320 operator and if Boeing can offer the right price and training support , I could see BA making the switch.

AngMoh · Thu Oct 04, 2012 11:42 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 7):

I don't think it's by any means guaranteed that existing A320 operators will order neo. We have already seen SilkAir, an established A320 operator order 737Max. Likewise, we've seen 737 operators ordering neos.

The story I heard about SilkAir is that they wanted the NEO but Airbus was so sure the had the deal in the bag that the refused to seriously negotiate and bring down prices. Boeing came in with a great deal, and SilkAir switched to the 737 because the deal was better and to teach Airbus a lesson. It was a shock even within SilkAir, especially for the technical guys who did not expect it at all. It had nothing to do with 737 being "better" than A320. It was the Boeing commercial package being offered being superior to the Airbus commercial package.

And I think the same will happen in Europe. Some will choose the 737, others A320 and it all depends on the package put on the table. I also remember Norwegian stating that by buying both NEO and MAX, they could get better pricing out of both of them and that benefit was greater than the additional costs of running a mixed fleet.

ikramerica · Fri Oct 05, 2012 12:45 am

There is no reason for any flag carrier in any EU nation that has investments in Airbus (via ownership, factories, major suppliers for A320, etc.) to order the 737MAX. It is politically expedient to order the NEO simply because the 737 and A320 families are roughly equal and duplicate missions. And while price competition would be a nice thought, there would be equal political pressure on Airbus to offer the "best" deal to these airlines so as not to hurt them financially.

This has shown to be true with the current aircraft as well. The widebody aircraft that Airbus and Boeing build can compliment each other in the same fleet due to different missions and sizes, and while there is often pressure to choose the Airbus option over the Boeing plane, airlines have spent their political capital here rather than fighting over the redundant 737 family. And committing to the A320 earns these airlines points they can use to deflect flack over widebody Boeing purchases.

autothrust · Fri Oct 05, 2012 8:03 am

Quoting clydenairways (Reply 16):
SR (Small Chance)

I think you mean LX as SR doesn't exist more. And there is absolutly ZERO chance LX wil buy the Max. They are happy with the A320 and would not dare to give up the comonality in the fleet.

Quoting LY777 (Reply 2):
I hope KLM will get 737Max

Please not. The 737 is ugly and doesn't offer the level of comfort like in a A320. Besides a A320 NEO would look great in KLM colors.

frigatebird · Fri Oct 05, 2012 8:15 am

KL has recently invested in the 737NG, it doesn't need to look at a replacement yet. AF is a different story however. It's very hard to imagine AF not ordering the NEO, so when it is time for KL to look at new narrowbodies, it will be very interesting if the MAX will be in the picture.. The NEO should be favourite though.

Clydenairways · Fri Oct 05, 2012 8:29 am

Quoting boysteve (Reply 19):

I do find it strange that you view BA & IB differently given thier ownership, there is nothing to stop IAG mixing things up. If their is a business case for brand new aircraft at MAD but not for BA's LGW fleet then some of the used short haul fleet at IB could be moved to LGW and replaced by brand new planes from wherever.

The reason for this is that even though it is part of IAG now, i see domestic pressure on IB to order Airbus which i don't with BA.
It's the same situation with AF, if they decided the MAX was best for them there would be very negative reaction in the media and political circles. They could ignore it, but it's probably not worth the hassle.

jumpjets · Fri Oct 05, 2012 9:25 am

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 21):
I could see BA making the switch.

Until the A320 order BA had of course never ordered a single airbus - though it inherited some from BCal - and BA was sometimes referred to as standing for Boeing Airways. So if long term allegiance to Boeing was capable of being diverted to Airbus for the A320s there is no reason why if the aeroplane/deal was right they coulndt switch back.

IBs most recent, and post IAG merger, wide body order was for A330s - might have been a timing issue but clearly IAG are not averse to having a mixed Boeing/AIrbus long haul fleet well into the future.

zkojq · Fri Oct 05, 2012 9:36 am

Quoting AngMoh (Reply 22):
The story I heard about SilkAir is that they wanted the NEO but Airbus was so sure the had the deal in the bag that the refused to seriously negotiate and bring down prices. Boeing came in with a great deal, and SilkAir switched to the 737 because the deal was better and to teach Airbus a lesson. It was a shock even within SilkAir, especially for the technical guys who did not expect it at all. It had nothing to do with 737 being "better" than A320. It was the Boeing commercial package being offered being superior to the Airbus commercial package.

According to John Leahy, Airbus didn't get the deal because they had already agreed to sell the last of the early production line slots (which SilkAir desperately wanted) to PAL a few days earlier.

LY777 · Fri Oct 05, 2012 9:37 am

Quoting autothrust (Reply 24):
Please not. The 737 is ugly and doesn't offer the level of comfort like in a A320.

This is you view. The Boeing Sky interior is amazing, and far superior to the current A320 interior

Bongodog1964 · Fri Oct 05, 2012 9:39 am

Quoting Heavierthanair (Reply 6):
My understanding of a flagship carrier is an airline providing a minimum of service even in the back of the plane, without having to pay for gadgets like boarding passes, seat reservation, checked bags, booze or even water and the like. There are not many left, to my knowledge there is none left in the US of A,

Doesn't Southwest fit this description, it did last time I flew with them.

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 21):
Quoting boysteve (Reply 19):I do find it strange that you view BA & IB differently given thier ownership
I am actually thinking that Boeing is going to target BA very aggressively with the MAX and that they might succeed (Do not flame me for this). Recent comments by Boeing says they are VERY eager to flip a 320 operator and if Boeing can offer the right price and training support , I could see BA making the switch.

Quoting clydenairways (Reply 26):
The reason for this is that even though it is part of IAG now, i see domestic pressure on IB to order Airbus which i don't with BA.It's the same situation with AF, if they decided the MAX was best for them there would be very negative reaction in the media and political circles. They could ignore it, but it's probably not worth the hassle.

BA & IB are already switching A320 orders between themselves, I can't see WW ever bowing to any form of political pressure, future fleet will depend on who offers the best overall deal for IAG.

To my mind all talk of "flagship carriers" is totally outdated for European airlines, Airline ownership in Europe is looked at with the EU as a single market, nothing can stop an irish registered airline setting up in the UK or vice versa, substitute EU nations as you wish.

For all its detractors, FR is a major EU airline, and IMO the most likely to order the MAX.

delta88 · Fri Oct 05, 2012 9:49 am

The only other airlines i think that would EVER in the next 10-15 years order the 737MAX would be BA/Iberia, and Possibly Lufthansa to supplement their A320NEOS, i know il be shot down for it, but these are the only Airlines i could see possibly getting the MAX.

BlueShamu330s · Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:06 am

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 21):
I am actually thinking that Boeing is going to target BA very aggressively with the MAX and that they might succeed (Do not flame me for this). Recent comments by Boeing says they are VERY eager to flip a 320 operator and if Boeing can offer the right price and training support , I could see BA making the switch.

BA are mindful of the fact there is a possibility, albeit not a certainty, that by the time the current NB fleet is rolled over, narrow body flights might be restricted at LHR to a new, much shorter third runway no longer than 2200m. From some of the eyebrow raising performance figures I've been privvy to, that's going to significantly hamper the versatility of both 8 and 9MAX operations at LHR.

Again, if the third runway goes ahead, it will be expected to extract the maximum use and potential, and I cannot for a second envisage exceptions being made for a particular type, as that will defeat the purpose of it.

I can't see BA taking a gamble on receiving dispensation not to use the third runway, and for that reason alone, I believe it precludes them from considering the MAX until such a time as it is decided runway 3 will not be going ahead in its current proposed form.

Rgds

sweair · Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:19 am

Slots more than price or brand loyalty will play into future orders. Airbus has a huge backlog, no matter how good the neo will be, if the backlog is too long some airlines might still order the "ugly" 737, availability. If the MAX has a shorter backlog and B is willing to give a good deal, 1-2% less efficiency wont matter to airlines.

autothrust · Fri Oct 05, 2012 11:17 am

Quoting LY777 (Reply 29):
The Boeing Sky interior is amazing, and far superior to the current A320 interior

While the Sky Interios looks great, the 737 cabin looks now even more cramped. With comfort i mean wider fuselage.

Also the 737 is noisier then the A320.

jfk777 · Fri Oct 05, 2012 11:24 am

Quoting clydenairways (Reply 16):
KLM (Strong Chance)
Turkish (Strong Chance)
LOT (Strong Chance)
SAS (Medium Chance)
BA (Small Chance)
EI (Small Chance)
IB (No Chance)
AF(No Chance)
LH (Small Chance)
AY (Small Chance)
SR (Small Chance)
AZ (No Chance)
TP (No Chance)
SN (Medium Chance)
LUX (Strong Chance)
OS (Small Chance)
OK (Small Chance)
RO (Medium Chance)
LZ (Small Chance)
SU (Medium Chance)
OA (No Chance)
CY (No Chance)

With Airbus selling so many A320neo's its early years of production are sold out. Its very likely a European airline currently flying A320's with buy 737 Max's.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 20):
Compared to European 737 operators like Ryanair and Norwegian, I wouldn't consider KL's fleet of 44 737NGs "huge". 18 -700s, 21 -800s and only 5 -900s.

KLM is a "tarditonal Flag airline", Ryannair is NOT. IF they pirchased Aer Lingus then they could join that club.

imiakhtar · Fri Oct 05, 2012 11:38 am

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 23):
There is no reason for any flag carrier in any EU nation that has investments in Airbus (via ownership, factories, major suppliers for A320, etc.) to order the 737MAX. It is politically expedient to order the NEO simply because the 737 and A320 families are roughly equal and duplicate missions. And while price competition would be a nice thought, there would be equal political pressure on Airbus to offer the "best" deal to these airlines so as not to hurt them financially.

This has shown to be true with the current aircraft as well. The widebody aircraft that Airbus and Boeing build can compliment each other in the same fleet due to different missions and sizes, and while there is often pressure to choose the Airbus option over the Boeing plane, airlines have spent their political capital here rather than fighting over the redundant 737 family. And committing to the A320 earns these airlines points they can use to deflect flack over widebody Boeing purchases.

Do you have a source to back up your gobbledygook or is it all conjecture?

If you have a look at the dates when the big four (BA, AF, IB and LH) initially ordered the A320, it was the best aircraft around and the 737NG was still some way off.

In the unlikely event that what you said was actually true, surely more of the EU airlines would be operating Airbus widebody longhaul fleets than there are? After all, that is where the margins are for the OEMs.

Oh and BTW, HA is yet to go into chapter 11 (as you foresaw when they ordered the A330).

Aesma · Fri Oct 05, 2012 1:41 pm

I can't speak for the other three but AF has indeed a lot of pressure to buy Airbus, and it's not just political, the populace is behind it. And he described exactly how things went for the last AF order. Even before it was announced the idea that it could go 787 was already making a scandal. In the end AF argued that they flew an all Airbus narrowbody fleet, that they flew all the Airbus widebodies, and ordered A350, then the 787 was acceptable.

imiakhtar · Fri Oct 05, 2012 2:21 pm

Quoting Aesma (Reply 37):
I can't speak for the other three but AF has indeed a lot of pressure to buy Airbus, and it's not just political, the populace is behind it. And he described exactly how things went for the last AF order. Even before it was announced the idea that it could go 787 was already making a scandal. In the end AF argued that they flew an all Airbus narrowbody fleet, that they flew all the Airbus widebodies, and ordered A350, then the 787 was acceptable.

Is there evidence to suggest that this pressure is anything but superficial?

A review of history suggests that flag carriers, state owned or not, will buy the fleet that fits their needs. AF is one of the largest 777 operators in the world. BA's predecessor BOAC at one time also faced ministerial level pressure to buy more Vickers VC-10 over Boeing 707, and yet they chose the latter.

Clydenairways · Fri Oct 05, 2012 3:46 pm

Quoting imiakhtar (Reply 38):

Is there evidence to suggest that this pressure is anything but superficial?

A review of history suggests that flag carriers, state owned or not, will buy the fleet that fits their needs. AF is one of the largest 777 operators in the world. BA's predecessor BOAC at one time also faced ministerial level pressure to buy more Vickers VC-10 over Boeing 707, and yet they chose the latter.

I suppose you can get away with it when you can say that i'ts only a percentage of the overall fleet. If AF went to an all Boeing shorthaul fleet, as well as the 787 and 777, then there would be a lot of pressure on them.
AF will always have Boeings, but will try and keep this balanced with other Airbus orders.

BA was able to justify a lot of their Boeing purchases by selecting RR engines.

Aesma · Fri Oct 05, 2012 4:29 pm

The US has many airlines so we can't really compare. If most of them were mostly Airbus I'm sure there would be trouble too.

Also I believe it's marketing for the Airbus countries and Airbus. It's difficult to sell stuff if you don't even buy it for yourself.

imiakhtar · Fri Oct 05, 2012 4:49 pm

Quoting clydenairways (Reply 39):
BA was able to justify a lot of their Boeing purchases by selecting RR engines.

Source?

Or is this a.net folklore as I suspect?

phxa340 · Fri Oct 05, 2012 5:15 pm

Quoting imiakhtar (Reply 38):
Is there evidence to suggest that this pressure is anything but superficial?

Yes , the CEO said this when the order was placed.

http://seattletimes.com/html/busines...nology/2016232645_airfrance17.html

http://www.industryweek.com/global-e...s-mega-order-between-airbus-boeing

There was immense political pressure to order the A350 .... contrary to A.net , politics happens on both sides of the Atlantic. Ironically, the pressure was to buy a fantastic plane that is going to work well for AF (Better than the 787 on some routes) so I am not sure why it was made a huge deal of.

imiakhtar · Fri Oct 05, 2012 5:44 pm

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 42):

Yes , the CEO said this when the order was placed.

http://seattletimes.com/html/busines...nology/2016232645_airfrance17.html

http://www.industryweek.com/global-e...s-mega-order-between-airbus-boeing

There was immense political pressure to order the A350 .... contrary to A.net , politics happens on both sides of the Atlantic. Ironically, the pressure was to buy a fantastic plane that is going to work well for AF (Better than the 787 on some routes) so I am not sure why it was made a huge deal of.

I'm not sure how a petition by politicians or a meeting with Sarkozy qualifies as "pressure" any more than a.netters and columnists voicing their disapproval at AA's Airbus order would.

Quoting clydenairways (Reply 39):
BA was able to justify a lot of their Boeing purchases by selecting RR engines.

You conveniently forgot to mention that BA at the time owned what was probably the largest engine MRO business in Europe at Nantgarw which specialised in RR, or the fact that BA got very favourable financing for their RR engine order from Goldman Sachs.

phxa340 · Fri Oct 05, 2012 6:28 pm

Quoting imiakhtar (Reply 43):
I'm not sure how a petition by politicians or a meeting with Sarkozy qualifies as "pressure" any more than a.netters and columnists voicing their disapproval at AA's Airbus order would.

How is are Politicians and Sarkozy telling AF to order Airbus NOT real pressure ?

AA had no political pressure to order Airbus/Boeing as far as we know - they bought them because they wanted an excellent aircraft at the right price for their needs.

I was simply responding to your first question.

Pe@rson · Fri Oct 05, 2012 6:33 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 35):
KLM is a "tarditonal Flag airline", Ryannair is NOT. IF they pirchased Aer Lingus then they could join that club.

Why would they want to join "that club"? So they can lose money?

rheinwaldner · Fri Oct 05, 2012 6:56 pm

Quoting FI642 (Reply 15):
Carriers must operate what they feel best meets their needs.

This contradicts this:

Quoting FI642 (Reply 15):
There is a very good chance no European Flag carrier will order the MAX.

I agree with the former.
But I also think that the MAX will not keep the market share of the NG in Europe...

imiakhtar · Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:42 pm

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 44):
How is are Politicians and Sarkozy telling AF to order Airbus NOT real pressure ?

Only 3 out of the 15 AF-KLM directors can exert any state influence - which in reality is pretty much zilch.

phxa340 · Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:52 pm

Quoting imiakhtar (Reply 47):

I am not talking about the BoD ... I am talking about the leader of France and influential politicians telling their constituents that AF should buy a certain product , again that is influence. I am NOT saying AF bought an inferior plane but simply that politics absolutely played a role.

Again :

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 42):
Ironically, the pressure was to buy a fantastic plane that is going to work well for AF

Aesma · Fri Oct 05, 2012 8:26 pm

Quoting imiakhtar (Reply 47):
Only 3 out of the 15 AF-KLM directors can exert any state influence - which in reality is pretty much zilch.

Well, you're wrong. In fact the top people at AF-KLM are politicians or almost politicians, having worked for and being friends with ministers.

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