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Gonzalo
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Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Thu Oct 25, 2012 11:12 pm

Weather forecasters upped the odds of a major weather mess, saying there's a 90 percent chance that the East will get steady gale-force winds, heavy rain, flooding and maybe snow starting Sunday and stretching past Halloween on Wednesday.

The storm is the result of a combination of Hurricane Sandy, now in the Caribbean, an early winter storm in the West, and a blast of arctic air coming from the North. They're predicted to collide and park over the country's most populous coastal corridor and reach as far inland as Ohio.

Surely this will have a big impact in air travel.

Are the major carriers taking any preventing action ( repositioning planes and things like that ) ?

( Source : http://news.yahoo.com/noaa-east-bewa...coming-frankenstorm-171317994.html )

( Edited to add link )

Rgds.
G.

[Edited 2012-10-25 16:15:25]
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iFlyLOTs
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Thu Oct 25, 2012 11:21 pm

Quoting Gonzalo (Thread starter):
They're predicted to collide and park over the country's most populous coastal corridor and reach as far inland as Ohio.

Last I heard it was supposed to reach as far in as Illinois on Tuesday.
Either way its going to be a mess, NYC, BOS, D.C., PHL, CLE, and possibly Detroit and Chicago? If it happens the way they're talking its going to be a royal mess!
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EddieDude
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Thu Oct 25, 2012 11:23 pm

Is MIA closed or expected to close tonight or tomorrow?
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BMI727
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Thu Oct 25, 2012 11:30 pm

Quoting iFlyLOTs (Reply 1):
Either way its going to be a mess, NYC, BOS, D.C., PHL, CLE, and possibly Detroit and Chicago?

New York's always a mess anyway.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
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Gonzalo
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Thu Oct 25, 2012 11:33 pm

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 2):
Is MIA closed or expected to close tonight or tomorrow?

According to ABC there is a Storm Warning from the north of Flagler Beach to the Cays in the south, including Miami.
MIA should probably close in the next 24 to 36 hours, but obviously that could change if Sandy changes the predicted path.

Rgds.
G.
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United727
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Thu Oct 25, 2012 11:40 pm

As of this evening, Meteorologists in the US are beginning to speculate that the collision of these storms may be very similar to conditions in the East Coast in the early 1990's (91/92?) and are suggesting this may be "The Perfect Storm II". Either way, this very well may be one for the record books for years to come. Good Luck to all of the crews operating in this area over the next several days. Be Safe...
 
nkops
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 12:00 am

Good time to freshen up on the Emergency Procedures Manual!!!
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ouboy79
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 12:18 am

Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 4):
According to ABC there is a Storm Warning from the north of Flagler Beach to the Cays in the south, including Miami.
MIA should probably close in the next 24 to 36 hours, but obviously that could change if Sandy changes the predicted path.

Rgds.
G.

Yeah Tropical Storm Warnings are up, but the system isn't coming ashore for awhile. No reason to close MIA...that is just foolish. It'll be moving away by tomorrow afternoon.

Courtesy the NHC: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl#contents

 
tdscanuck
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 12:56 am

Quoting Gonzalo (Thread starter):
Are the major carriers taking any preventing action ( repositioning planes and things like that ) ?

There's very little preventative action they can take; you can't re-position aircraft now unless you pre-emptively cancel flights (and *that* would piss customers off) because the aircraft are already assigned to routes. The only thing you could move are standby aircraft (stuff that can be brought out of maintenance early, or are waiting to fill operational holes).

Tom.
 
boberito6589
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 1:13 am

I think as we move through the weekend, airlines will start to look at Northeast operations and the track of the storm and probably start making cancellations and ferrying aircraft to "safer" locations. US did this at DCA/PHL/LGA with the hurricane last year and they have done it before for significant snow storms. I have heard that US is going to start having operational conference calls on Sandy starting tomorrow afternoon to try and determine the best course of action. I think this is probably what all the airlines are doing right now as a precautionary measure
 
ltbewr
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 1:21 am

Clearly this now termed 'Frankenstorm' for it's unusual combo of weather patterns is going to cause a huge mess. I suspect all airports along the Atlantic coast from NC to Maine will face shutdowns for periods of time, perhaps for a day or two. There could be serious coastal flooding as well as inland flooding in NY, NJ, PA, CT, MA, RI, and ME like we saw from tropical storms in September 2011 and in 2010. Could even see snow, blown down power lines all over the region, major road flooding, serious disruption of buses and train routes that could make access to airports (and everywhere else) impossible.
I suspect major airport operators are checking out their major storm plans and getting them ready to put them into place as needed.
 
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airportugal310
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 1:51 am

Quoting boberito6589 (Reply 9):
I think as we move through the weekend, airlines will start to look at Northeast operations and the track of the storm and probably start making cancellations and ferrying aircraft to "safer" locations. US did this at DCA/PHL/LGA with the hurricane last year and they have done it before for significant snow storms. I have heard that US is going to start having operational conference calls on Sandy starting tomorrow afternoon to try and determine the best course of action. I think this is probably what all the airlines are doing right now as a precautionary measure
Quoting ltbewr (Reply 10):
Clearly this now termed 'Frankenstorm' for it's unusual combo of weather patterns is going to cause a huge mess. I suspect all airports along the Atlantic coast from NC to Maine will face shutdowns for periods of time, perhaps for a day or two. There could be serious coastal flooding as well as inland flooding in NY, NJ, PA, CT, MA, RI, and ME like we saw from tropical storms in September 2011 and in 2010. Could even see snow, blown down power lines all over the region, major road flooding, serious disruption of buses and train routes that could make access to airports (and everywhere else) impossible.
I suspect major airport operators are checking out their major storm plans and getting them ready to put them into place as needed.

I'm out in O'ahu right now and we aren't getting much info on this storm out here (for obvious reasons) but I am flying BOS-JFK-HNL on Sunday AM and wondering if those flights should still go off without a hitch?

Thanks
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FI642
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:08 am

My field is already having pre-panic conference calls with the Managers. It could get "interesting!"
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boberito6589
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:10 am

Quoting airportugal310 (Reply 11):
BOS-JFK-HNL on Sunday AM

I would think that Sunday AM should be okay, weather.com has notices all over the place about this storm
 
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Moose135
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:13 am

Quoting airportugal310 (Reply 11):
I am flying BOS-JFK-HNL on Sunday AM and wondering if those flights should still go off without a hitch?

Right now, the latest forecasts are saying the storm will hit the Northeast on Tuesday, so you should be good on Sunday morning. You can see from the map ouboy79 posted above, the storm should still be off the Carolina coast on Sunday.
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airportugal310
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:15 am

Quoting boberito6589 (Reply 13):
I would think that Sunday AM should be okay, weather.com has notices all over the place about this storm

Thanks man.

I've seen them, but no website can pinpoint a damn thing yet and I leave for the mainland tomorrow. I'd just stay here if I had good answers, ya know?

Edit: Thanks Moose.

[Edited 2012-10-25 19:16:19]
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steeler83
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:20 am

Quoting United727 (Reply 5):
As of this evening, Meteorologists in the US are beginning to speculate that the collision of these storms may be very similar to conditions in the East Coast in the early 1990's (91/92?) and are suggesting this may be "The Perfect Storm II". Either way, this very well may be one for the record books for years to come. Good Luck to all of the crews operating in this area over the next several days. Be Safe...

I believe you are referring to the storm that moved up the coast around this time in 1991, the one during which the fishing vessel Andrea Gale capsized and sank.

I didn't think of that until earlier today at work. The difference tho, is that storm affected Bermuda and Sabol Island. This sucker is predicted to move right into the Northeastern US somewhere. Scary!   
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cjpmaestro
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:27 am

Quoting boberito6589 (Reply 9):
I think as we move through the weekend, airlines will start to look at Northeast operations and the track of the storm and probably start making cancellations and ferrying aircraft to "safer" locations. US did this at DCA/PHL/LGA with the hurricane last year and they have done it before for significant snow storms. I have heard that US is going to start having operational conference calls on Sandy starting tomorrow afternoon to try and determine the best course of action. I think this is probably what all the airlines are doing right now as a precautionary measure

UGH. I'm heading PHX to PHL on Wednesday afternoon. I better start making other plans. Luckily, hub to hub should try and get back to normal fairly quickly. At least I hope
 
dcann40
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:45 am

I feel badly for those who have plans, but for once, I have no flying until 1 Nov. Still, it sounds like it will be a mess everywhere.
 
PHX787
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 3:12 am

Quoting dcann40 (Reply 18):
I feel badly for those who have plans, but for once, I have no flying until 1 Nov. Still, it sounds like it will be a mess everywhere.

Well looks like my dad is going to be in NY on that day. He said he's going to pack extra blankets and non-perishable foods in his checked bags  
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Acey559
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 3:20 am

I left ORD about 1:45PM today to do a JAX turn. When we left it was 80F and when we landed it was 50 and raining so that was quite the shock! JAX was just starting to get cloudy and windy. I'm not sure how bad it's supposed to get down there but I think they're supposed to get some rain at least. Should be decent weather in Chicago for at least the next week, though.
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DFWHeavy
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 3:32 am

Folks, this isnt going to be a "Monster" storm. It will be lucky to be a minimal category 1 hurricane. Everyone is over reacting. Yes, the airports will be shut down for a day, but it isnt bringing disaster. Hell, spring and fall storms pose much more risk than this storm. So everyone just take a chil pill.

Cheers
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PHX787
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 3:51 am

Quoting DFWHeavy (Reply 21):
Folks, this isnt going to be a "Monster" storm. It will be lucky to be a minimal category 1 hurricane. Everyone is over reacting. Yes, the airports will be shut down for a day, but it isnt bringing disaster. Hell, spring and fall storms pose much more risk than this storm. So everyone just take a chil pill.

I don't know if you looked at the surface maps but this has all the ingredients necessary for one hell of a nor'easter.
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Spacepope
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 3:59 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 22):
I don't know if you looked at the surface maps but this has all the ingredients necessary for one hell of a nor'easter.

The western component of this storm has been dropping snow over Colorado Springs for the past 26 hours+, with the worst to come overnight. It'll be like gasoline on a fire as it moseys on east.
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DocLightning
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 4:08 am

Quoting Spacepope (Reply 23):

The western component of this storm has been dropping snow over Colorado Springs for the past 26 hours+, with the worst to come overnight. It'll be like gasoline on a fire as it moseys on east.

We got the first of that one here in SF. Lots of rain for this time of year. But then again, around here the word "storm" gets used for things I would never have called a "storm" growing up in Michigan. In Michigan we called it: "rain."
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PHX787
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 4:28 am

Quoting Spacepope (Reply 23):
The western component of this storm has been dropping snow over Colorado Springs for the past 26 hours+, with the worst to come overnight. It'll be like gasoline on a fire as it moseys on east.
Quoting DocLightning (Reply 24):
We got the first of that one here in SF. Lots of rain for this time of year. But then again, around here the word "storm" gets used for things I would never have called a "storm" growing up in Michigan. In Michigan we called it: "rain."

And to make everyone up north mad at us here in PHX, nice and sunny, light breeze, low 80s here at ASU   
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iFlyLOTs
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 4:37 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 25):
And to make everyone up north mad at us here in PHX, nice and sunny, light breeze, low 80s here at ASU

I'm not mad, here in Chicago it was 79 and partly cloudy most of the day. Although this evening the cold front went through and it dropped to 45 in a few hours.. But it was a great day! I wore a t shirt and shorts today, horay Indian summer!  
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ouboy79
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 4:47 am

New GFS is coming in...bring a pretty powerful 960 MB low onshore around Long Island, RI/MA/CT midday Tuesday.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php...put=image&view=large&archive=false

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2012/10/26/00/GFS_3_2012102600_F114_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
 
NWADTWE16
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 4:50 am

Quoting DFWHeavy (Reply 21):

Not sure if you understand Meteorology but the 'storm' thats currently a Hurricane is only one piece of a three part collision of Energy and Moisture that will make the upcoming storm. It doesnt mean it will happen but when models all predict the same thing, thats as close as you get to 100% and they rarely all agree but i believe do in this situation.
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D L X
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 5:16 am

Quoting DFWHeavy (Reply 21):
Folks, this isnt going to be a "Monster" storm. It will be lucky to be a minimal category 1 hurricane.

A category 1 hurricane mixed with a blizzard. This is not a storm with which you should f---. If you are only concerned about what category the hurricane component is, you are taking an extreme risk, and not allowing yourself to be fully informed of its danger.

I will be seeking shelter.
 
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airportugal310
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 6:51 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 25):
And to make everyone up north mad at us here in PHX, nice and sunny, light breeze, low 80s here at ASU
Quoting iFlyLOTs (Reply 26):
I'm not mad, here in Chicago it was 79 and partly cloudy most of the day. Although this evening the cold front went through and it dropped to 45 in a few hours.. But it was a great day! I wore a t shirt and shorts today, horay Indian summer!

LOLZ....in Waikiki it was actually a humid, but sunny, 84F today...trades wont be back til this weekend and Kona winds are in place until tomorrow they say...

Rough!  
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rampart
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 8:26 am

Quoting steeler83 (Reply 16):
I believe you are referring to the storm that moved up the coast around this time in 1991, the one during which the fishing vessel Andrea Gale capsized and sank.

"

Yes, that would be the "Halloween Storm of 1991", subsequently the Perfect Storm of book and movie fame. It was post facto designated a hurricane (hybrid), but was never named as a hurricane at the time. It differs from this current storm in that it developed as a midlatitude cyclone-subtropical cyclone first, then evolved into a hurricane. Sandy is a regularly formed hurricane first that, like many hurricanes, will later be absorbed into a larger midlatitude cyclone pattern. This often happens, but out in the middle of the North Atlantic where nobody cares, or as a much diminished (though wet) storm in the Ohio Valley if it's run ashore on the Gulf Coast. However, an important similarity between Sandy and "The Perfect Storm" is that both are predicted to go retrograde, directly into the East Coast, not skirting the coast, not accelerating northeast or east. That's a worse case scenario for storm surge and lingering rain.

Quoting DFWHeavy (Reply 21):

Folks, this isnt going to be a "Monster" storm. It will be lucky to be a minimal category 1 hurricane. Everyone is over reacting. Yes, the airports will be shut down for a day, but it isnt bringing disaster. Hell, spring and fall storms pose much more risk than this storm. So everyone just take a chil pill.

The hurricane segment of its life will be the less of the worries. That said, very few category I hurricanes, or even tropical storms, make a dead-on perpendicular collision with the New Jersey or Delaware coast.

-Rampart
 
Eagleboy
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 8:37 am

Quoting NWADTWE16 (Reply 28):
Not sure if you understand Meteorology but the 'storm' thats currently a Hurricane is only one piece of a three part collision of Energy and Moisture that will make the upcoming storm.
Quoting D L X (Reply 29):
A category 1 hurricane mixed with a blizzard.

Great time NOT to be flying into the north-east. Each of these 3 weather system would cause a certain amount of disruption. Now when you add all 3 together at more or less the same time period.........this could be very bad and widespread.
 
don0245
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 10:48 am

MIA, PBI, FLL open for business, few flights have already been cancelled.
 
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cotparampguy
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 12:17 pm

Quoting don0245 (Reply 33):

Weather in FLL is good right now. Some squalls moving through but nothing too bad. Our (B6) morning NAS flights have been cancelled but we expect the airport to reopen around 1400 EST. Other than that, all flights are running normally.
 
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Gonzalo
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 12:35 pm

Quoting don0245 (Reply 33):
MIA, PBI, FLL open for business,
Quoting cotparampguy (Reply 34):
Weather in FLL is good right now.

Just to clarify, the so called "Frankestorm" ( by sensationalist media ), is expected to cause havoc in the next days, and in a different location well north of where you are :

Quoting Gonzalo (Thread starter):
there's a 90 percent chance that the East will get steady gale-force winds, heavy rain, flooding and maybe snow starting Sunday and stretching past Halloween on Wednesday.
Quoting Gonzalo (Thread starter):
The storm is the result of a combination of Hurricane Sandy, now in the Caribbean, an early winter storm in the West, and a blast of arctic air coming from the North. They're predicted to collide and park over the country's most populous coastal corridor and reach as far inland as Ohio.

I'm just making this clear to prevent someone could think "everything is Ok, nothing to worry about", when, IMHO, some preventive measures must be taken by all the people ( living or travelling ) around the areas that should be affected.

Regardless, the hurricane Sandy is near the coast of Florida according to the NOAA maps ( but apparently is turning north in the next hours ?? )

Rgds.
G.
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steeler83
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 1:38 pm

Quoting rampart (Reply 31):
Yes, that would be the "Halloween Storm of 1991", subsequently the Perfect Storm of book and movie fame. It was post facto designated a hurricane (hybrid), but was never named as a hurricane at the time. It differs from this current storm in that it developed as a midlatitude cyclone-subtropical cyclone first, then evolved into a hurricane. Sandy is a regularly formed hurricane first that, like many hurricanes, will later be absorbed into a larger midlatitude cyclone pattern. This often happens, but out in the middle of the North Atlantic where nobody cares, or as a much diminished (though wet) storm in the Ohio Valley if it's run ashore on the Gulf Coast. However, an important similarity between Sandy and "The Perfect Storm" is that both are predicted to go retrograde, directly into the East Coast, not skirting the coast, not accelerating northeast or east. That's a worse case scenario for storm surge and lingering rain.

Ah, thanks for the history lesson.

And yeah, to folks who keep saying "oh, this is only going to be a cat one storm," um, the GFS weather model is suggesting a 960 MB low. If memory serves me correctly, the superstorm of 1993 had roughly the equivalent strength, which in terms of tropical cyclones, is roughly right around a CAT 2 or 3 hurricane. We will very easily be dealing with hurricane force sustained winds with this one.

Remember Hurricane Irene last year? Yeah, I think this is her ultra evil sister paying a visit. Apparently Irene left some "unfinished business" and is sending this Halloween trick to wreak havoc on the East Coast...

I just pray we don't have any power outage. I work at an assisted living community, and I was there during many a power outage. I'd rather have a fire drill any day over those...
Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
 
wagz
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:42 pm

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 27):
New GFS is coming in...bring a pretty powerful 960 MB low onshore around Long Island, RI/MA/CT midday Tuesday.

I'm more interested in what the Euro model has to say right now. It's been predicting this since last weekend (one of my co-workers has been talking about it since then) while the GFS for quite a while had it going out to sea. Now the GFS is starting to get on-board but it still looks a bit odd when you go panel to panel and watch the progression of the center of the Low Pressure.

The Euro consistently has been bringing it ashore somewhere in NJ. Currently it looks as if its predicting landfall a little further south now near or just south of Cape May, NJ. It then takes it through the Delmarva and over or just south of PHL on Tuesday.

I work at PHL and I'm watching this like a hawk. Looks like I might get out of work Tuesday. I don't think I want to be in the tower during possible Hurricane force winds.
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cotparampguy
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:50 pm

Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 35):

Yes, I know. I was just clarifying the conditions for the people who were asking about Florida airports.

It's supposed to start hooking out to sea, and then get driven back into the the Northeast. We are expecting cancellations and might start moving aircraft out of the affected areas.

[Edited 2012-10-26 07:51:01]
 
trnswrld
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 3:18 pm

Looking for some input guys on what my best options are. I have a flight booked on Southwest to depart MDW Tuesday at 6am for PHL arriving at 8:55am. Should I call SWA now and try to cancel that flight all together? or if I can possibly move the flight the day before on monday morning. Im just not totally convinced that even monday morning would be a safe bet that the flight will make it to PHL or even go at all.
Any input is appreciated as I havent really been in a situation where I was flying with a huge known storm supposed to be in the area the day of my flight.
 
26point2
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 3:40 pm

I am one of 30,000+ runners in NYC next weekend for Sunday's marathon and I'm doubly screwed?

Booked on AA (with their clever labor slowdown and all) to EWR on Friday morning. Hoping operations are somewhat back to normal by then. Is that ridiculous AA pilot slowdown still and issue? I haven't heard any talk of it for a couple of weeks.

At least we should have good running weather Nov 4.
 
ouboy79
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RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 3:51 pm

Here is the NHC forecast discussion from about an hour ago...

WTNT43 KNHC 261459
TCDAT3

HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE HURRICANE...AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MAAT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN MASS OF CONVECTION. USING A BLEND OF FLIGHT-LEVEL AND
SFMR WINDS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT YIELDS A CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 70 KT. DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW AN ADDITIONAL
INCREASE AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE AT
LEAST SLIGHT WEAKENING. LATER AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH IS VERY
LIKELY DUE TO BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES. BY 72 HOURS...THE MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION...WHICH SHOULD HASTEN THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM AS POST-TROPICAL
AT 96 HOURS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF
THE TRANSITION. REGARDLESS...WHETHER SANDY IS OFFICIALLY TROPICAL
OR POST-TROPICAL AT LANDFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON THE
IMPACTS.

LATEST FIXES FROM HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW A VERY SLOW MOTION
WITH THE CENTER APPEARING TO HAVE TURNED NORTHWARD. THE CURRENT
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/5. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO ESCAPE THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND TO BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASE AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN FORWARD
SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND DIG AS
AND Irtysh-Avia (Kazakhstan)">IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN U.S. COAST BY 72 HOURS. THE FLOW ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD CAUSE SANDY TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TOWARD THE COAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO VERY CLOSE TO
THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. USERS ARE REMINDED TO NOT
FOCUS ON THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST LATE AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN THE PERIOD...AS
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BRING IMPACTS TO A LARGE PART OF THE U.S. EAST
COAST AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INAND Irtysh-Avia (Kazakhstan)">IT 26/1500Z 26.7N 76.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 27.6N 77.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 28.9N 76.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 30.5N 75.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 32.2N 73.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 36.0N 72.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 39.0N 75.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 31/1200Z 40.5N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
izbtmnhd
Posts: 956
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:06 pm

RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 4:13 pm

Quoting wagz (Reply 37):

I don't know what GFS model you are looking at but I've been watching this storm since it was south of Jamaica using GFS from noaa.nws.gov and it predicted the storm to merge with the shortwave trough consistently for about 3-4 days. The only variabiliy was in where it was going to strike. Most of the runs showed it coming on shore closer to Long Island. In fact one run two days ago had it at 954MB(!) with the trough dragging the storm all the way west to Lake Huron before weakening and drifting up into Labrador. Showed lots of snow for SW PA and WV in that model as well. We'll see.
 
maddogjt8d
Posts: 217
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 3:37 pm

RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 4:22 pm

Hey All, just curious to ping you weather experts for your opinion. My wife and I are flying up to New York this weekend, in and out of JFK and leaving JFK back for ATL on Sunday evening. I see that the models say it won't hit the Northeast until Tuesday, do you think we'll be ok getting back out on Sunday evening from NYC?
 
skyhigh777
Posts: 335
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2005 7:07 am

RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 4:32 pm

Unfortunately for me, I have a flight booked Newark - LAX on Wednesday of next week scheduled to Depart at 4:45 pm. What do you guys think the chances of that flight actually departing are?

I've had this trip planned for months, so obviously the timing isn't great. If my flight is cancelled ahead of time, what would my options be? Hopefully the storm's path changes or weakens.
 
United1
Posts: 4210
Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2003 9:21 am

RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 4:55 pm

Quoting SkyHigh777 (Reply 44):
I've had this trip planned for months, so obviously the timing isn't great. If my flight is cancelled ahead of time, what would my options be?

UA (assuming that's who you are flying) hasn't announced any waivers for the north east yet but as they start to figure out what the impact of the storm will be they will. Generally they allow you to change the day of the flight without any fees/fare differences. All of the airlines will usually allow you to do this....just keep an eye on their websites.

They are saying that the store will hit on Monday/Tuesday so you may actually have a decent shot of your flight leaving Wednesday as scheduled.
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
kkephart13
Posts: 92
Joined: Mon Jun 11, 2012 3:08 pm

RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 5:30 pm

I will say, B6 had a flight today with either ferry or charter numbers today go from JFK-CAK-EWR. im unsure if its a college charter or what. but i heard that B6 will possibly park in CAK until Frankenstorm clears outta the east coast.
EVERYTHING i type on here, is the opinion of ME and not of any airline/company.
 
steeler83
Posts: 7700
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2006 2:06 pm

RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 5:46 pm

Quoting izbtmnhd (Reply 42):
I don't know what GFS model you are looking at but I've been watching this storm since it was south of Jamaica using GFS from noaa.nws.gov and it predicted the storm to merge with the shortwave trough consistently for about 3-4 days. The only variabiliy was in where it was going to strike. Most of the runs showed it coming on shore closer to Long Island. In fact one run two days ago had it at 954MB(!) with the trough dragging the storm all the way west to Lake Huron before weakening and drifting up into Labrador. Showed lots of snow for SW PA and WV in that model as well. We'll see.

Sheesh! 954 MB low, I wonder what the sustained winds would look like with this. In terms of snow fall, I guess that would mean what, a foot or so even for the Burgh? Yikes! As long as that part of the storm stays the hell away from Philly, I'm fine with that... We'll have enough problems with powerful winds and rain...
Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
 
catiii
Posts: 3689
Joined: Mon Mar 31, 2008 1:18 am

RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 5:55 pm

Quoting MaddogJT8D (Reply 43):
Hey All, just curious to ping you weather experts for your opinion. My wife and I are flying up to New York this weekend, in and out of JFK and leaving JFK back for ATL on Sunday evening. I see that the models say it won't hit the Northeast until Tuesday, do you think we'll be ok getting back out on Sunday evening from NYC?

You should be good to go on Sunday. My understanding is that the operations will begin thinning out Monday early PM.


Quoting steeler83 (Reply 47):
Sheesh! 954 MB low, I wonder what the sustained winds would look like with this

Not sure, but this was a pretty ominous warning from one of the NHC reports:
“MODELS SHOW PRESSURE WELL BEYOND WHAT HAS EVER BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE NJ/NY COAST (EVEN EXCEEDING THE 1938 LONG ISLAND EXPRESS [HURRICANE])”
 
FI642
Posts: 992
Joined: Sat Mar 12, 2005 9:48 am

RE: Noaa : Monster Storm Heading To East Coast

Fri Oct 26, 2012 6:09 pm

Carriers have started moving planes, and looking at schedules. Gonna be an interesting event to say the least.

Hopefully everyone will be safe.
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