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astuteman
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 12:08 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 49):
B can make 7+ 777 frames a month if this goes down to 4 or 5 they will still make a decent return.

Just so I can get this straight.

Boeing are capable of turning out 7 x 777X a month on top of 13 or so 787's, - 20 in total.

But Airbus aren't capable of turning out 7 x A350-1000's and yet have room for A350-800's and -900's?

  

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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 12:19 pm

Airbus is aiming at a production rate of 10 A350 frames a month (or 120 a year) by the end of 2018. About 40 - 50 of those 120 frames will be a A350-1000 (or 3 - 4 a month). Now Airbus is investigating if they can produce more -1000's. That means they must increase the production rate beyond 10 frames a month, not reducing the -800 and -900 numbers.

[Edited 2012-10-27 05:22:03]
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 12:19 pm

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 13):
The point of a derivative would be to develop something to hit the market quickly, but if they're pushed back to the early 2020s anyway, what's the point?

That's just part of it. The other point of doing derivatives is to develop something cost effectively (I wouldn't say cheaply because no commercial airliner program is ever cheap). A derivative would cost less than doing a new build, and there's a possibility that the derivative could yield a better return on investment if it can gain a big enough slice of the market - which I believe it can.

Quoting zeke (Reply 15):
Why would any airline buy a 777-300ER to cover a short term stop gap with an A350 delay ?

For the same reason as airlines that bought A330s in light of 787 delays.

Quoting Atlflyer (Reply 17):
Boeing really needs to just come up with a true 777 replacement for EIS in mid-2020s.

Why? The current 777 is still an extremely efficient aircraft. An update in the form of the 777X as is currently being proposed by Boeing is going to strengthen its prospects further into the future. I don't think Boeing really needs an all new 777-sized aircraft until around early to mid 2030s, because the upgraded 777X will be good enough to hold the fort until then.

Quoting na (Reply 22):
You think that a date set by Boeing 8 (!) years before is remotely exact? Where have you been the last ten years? You´re hopelessly optimistic if you think there wont be at least two years more delay. If it will ever be built, and I see chances are getting lesser, then we´ll see a service entry not before 2022. Bet on it. But, as others said before, a complete replacement of the 777 has just become more likely.

I'm under no illusions that there could be further delays to the program, but until it has been publicly announced by Boeing, stating a 2022/23 EIS as though it is fact is quite preposterous. Likewise, Boeing has come out and publicly stated that they remain "absolutely committed" to the 777X. It's not a matter of whether it'll come, but when, and what form it'll take.

And incidentally, in the last 10 years, neither the 777-300ER, nor the 777-200LR, nor the 777F arrived substantially late, and the 777-300ER exceeded its design targets.

Quoting cosmofly (Reply 23):
An all CFRP, body included, 80m long 777-9X, with some galley and toilets in the cargo area, could arguably take the EK 3 class configuration to 450 pax level. A twin of this size can put a lot of pressure on the 4 holer A388, leaving only the A389 with no equals. Such 777-9X will still have a lot of cargo capacity. Another good thing is that GE90-115B thrust level may be good enough so new engine risk is much mitigated.

If Boeing designs an all CFRP body, then it'd be an all new plane. It wouldn't be a derivative any longer. Besides, I have serious doubts that the 777 body can be stretched that far, and even if it could, it would cause ground manoeuvring issues. I believe that Boeing chose only a 2.7m stretch for a reason.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 34):
I am not so sure that is the case. I see Boeing hesitating and trailing now

I don't agree. Boeing are in no hurry to release the 777X - not because they're hesitating, but because they're waiting for Airbus to show its cards first. It has always been maintained that until the A350-1000's design is frozen, there will be no 777X. When Airbus firms up its plans for the A350-1000, I think you'll find that Boeing will launch a response within six months.

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 38):
Depending upon how good the 351 ends up, Boeing can make more evidence based decisions, on where to take the 777, and possibly save billions of dollars in the process.

  

I hadn't thought of it as a cost saving measure, but more of a design target measure, but you're quite right. If Boeing knows exactly what the A350-1000 is going to be like, they can produce a more cost effective design rather than having a "stab in the dark".

Quoting boilerla (Reply 40):
With the 77W still selling very well, I don't think Boeing is in any hurry to offer up its replacement. Considering it'll have deliveries well into 2017 with the current order book, that alone keeps the line going assuming no new orders.

  

There's still time. I fail to see why Boeing should rush into the 777X program when the 77W is still the best in its class.

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 42):
How about a 777X lite (or 77W upgrade).
Existing metal wing with enhancements, interior widening - 10 abreast, new engines, no stretch---------($2 billion (or less), 400 units)
I'm not sure about the case for a new metal wing other than the ability to use existing manufacturing processes. There is also the issue of convincing GE to produce a new engine for what may be a lower production run. The advantage would be much less risk and much faster time frame from launch to EIS.

Part of the reason why the 777X can use lower thrust engines is the entirely new wing with a larger wing area, which also generates more lift. If the same wing has to be kept, then I can't see Boeing going with 100,000lbs engines, thus negating the fuel savings of having reduced thrust.

I don't think keeing the same wings will work.

Quoting morrisond (Reply 47):
I think it is new build and one of the main drivers for that will be manufacturing cost. The 777 is very labor intensive compared to what I think will be achievable in the early 2020's

Do you have evidence to back up that claim?

There have been numerous changes to the 777 FAL with regards to increasing manufacturing efficiency, such that the 777 can now be built at a rate of 8.3 units per month. Like other manufacturers and other aircraft type, the 777 manufacturing processes will continue to be revised and adapted to improve production efficiency. I don't see why a 777 built in the 2020s is going to be any more costly to build than any other aircraft of a comparable size using comparable manufacturing technologies.
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 12:27 pm

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 45):
Is it not possible to do that with the current 77W? Likely even at best it wouldn't be equal to a 779, but could that still be a cost effective bridge to say a Y3? They'd sacrifice a good deal of sales to the 35J, no doubt, but with R&D savings, perhaps that would make a late decade launch/mid 2020's EIS a more realistic proposition for a Y3. Thoughts?...

I thought the same. Maybe some updated engines on it and there comes the 777-3 MAX. I think there should be enough interest and demand. In the meantime B can work on a new clean-sheet design.
 
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 12:34 pm

Quoting Cerecl (Reply 37):
The large advantage 77W enjoys over A346 came as a surprise to Boeing as well.

Really? So Boeing didn't build a 77W purposely to compete against a fuel guzzler A346 that has never sold well? Interesting...

Quoting Cerecl (Reply 37):
Despite all the talk about one model from A or B killing the competitor product on A.net, I don't think either company deliberately target their products for this purpose.

Agreed, but it wasn't really my point.

I think that, for the wide-bodies market, lately A and B have cleverly avoided each other in launching complementary designs. The A350 comes against a 772, the 787 comes against an A340, the A380 takes the advantage on a left alone capacity market, while the 748 fills a gap between the 350 and 550 seats demand.

But I don't agree with your point considering the purpose of an A350XWB launch. First Airbus decided to revamp a best-seller A330 selling pretty well worldwide. But put under pressure by customers, Airbus had to stretch and then to widen a base A330 cabin, forcing them to start from an all blank sheet.

So now, yes, Airbus definitely entered a direct model to model competition with Boeing, in designing a 777-200ER replacement. Will Airbus be able to stretch it to a -1100 or even -1200 version that can compete with a 77W? I don't know... But that's gonna be interesting.

Quoting Cerecl (Reply 37):
If this is true A380 would have sold better than it did.

Unless the A380 fuel efficiency is not that "good" per seat compared to other aircraft  
Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 38):
To me the most likely scenario going on at Boeing is that the 350-1000 is an unknown animal with some problems.

Depending upon how good the 351 ends up, Boeing can make more evidence based decisions, on where to take the 777, and possibly save billions of dollars in the process.

Ruscoe

Sums it up pretty well to me!
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 1:08 pm

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 52):
If Boeing designs an all CFRP body, then it'd be an all new plane. It wouldn't be a derivative any longer.

How much of a derivative it is if it has a totally new CFRP wing with a lot more lift?



Quoting CXB77L (Reply 52):
it would cause ground manoeuvring issues

The idea is to give A388 a run for its money, not as a 77W replacement.
 
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 1:22 pm

Quoting cosmofly (Reply 55):
How much of a derivative it is if it has a totally new CFRP wing with a lot more lift?

The 737NG is also a derivative with a totally new wing ...

I don't know if my definition is correct technically, but the way I see it, if the design didn't start with the proverbial clean sheet of paper with a view to designing an all new aircraft, but rather started with the previous generation with the aim of making that a better product, then it's a derivative.

Quoting cosmofly (Reply 55):
The idea is to give A388 a run for its money, not as a 77W replacement.

I don't think the A388 is going to be much of a worry, to be honest. It might be out-selling the 747-8i many times over, but the A380 itself isn't exactly selling in great numbers. The number, and the profit, is in competing with the A350XWB, not with the A380.
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 1:28 pm

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 56):
I don't think the A388 is going to be much of a worry, to be honest. It might be out-selling the 747-8i many times over, but the A380 itself isn't exactly selling in great numbers. The number, and the profit, is in competing with the A350XWB, not with the A380.

If a 777X comes close to - let's say 5% - of the A380 CASM then the whalejet orders will have a hard(er) time I think. However, a 777X may also trigger Airbus to upgrade the A380 (new engines or stretch the fuselage).
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 1:37 pm

I just reacted to the all so dominant A350-1000 is a 777 killer, it takes a lot of time to up the build rate, I have a hard time seeing how the A350-1000 would be able to dominate the current 777 market, look at the ramp up of the 787, its slow and the A330 will have good sales for years to come.

If they were to replace the 777 80/20 they would have to produce say 6 1000 models a month from the start. In 2020 the 77W will still be safe. I just think this place is filled with dreamers. Reality is a cold and hard place..
 
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 1:41 pm

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 56):
I don't think the A388 is going to be much of a worry, to be honest.

I actually worry about the A380s. My belief is that it will do quite well if left unchecked.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 57):
If a 777X comes close to - let's say 5% - of the A380 CASM then the whalejet orders will have a hard(er) time I think.

A 80m 777-9X may actually beat A388 CASM.
 
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 2:14 pm

Quoting cosmofly (Reply 59):
I actually worry about the A380s. My belief is that it will do quite well if left unchecked.

And that's a reason to worry because...?   
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 2:14 pm

I actually think this good news. When I heard Boeing was thinking about shelving the large CFRP wing for the 777X, sacrificing 3-4% efficiency, I saw a new 747-8i looming on the horizon. It seems they are going for the large CFRP wing after all, and optimize the whole airframe further, taking advantage of newest technologies regarding AL-LI fuselage, the best engine tech (maybe a 100k GTF would be possible?). It will take maybe a few years more, but I'm sure it will be a able to compete better with the A350 than a 777X rushed into EIS this decade..

Maybe EK will be furious, but they will have to bite the bullet and wait until other airlines need to replace their 77W fleets as well, most of them want to keep them until the next decade anyway...

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 13):
Quoting morrisond (Thread starter):
Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's  

This would hopefully mean that the eventual 777X becomes an all new aircraft.

I think the 777X will become as much a new aircraft just as the 767X became the 777, and become 'Y3' (FWIW). Cockpit and fuselage diameter may become the only thing in common with the current 777.
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 2:53 pm

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 44):
I think part of the reason Boeing is hesitating is the lack of positive market feedback to the 777-8X which is proposed as the direct replacement for the 77W.

The 777-8X should be as long as the 777-300ER and the 777-9 should be 79-80m. I know at that point there are worries about tail strikes and take-off runs due to a shallow rotation angle, but raw capacity is the only real weapon that plane has in it's arsenal against the A350-1000, IMO.

I still think Boeing should just keep the 77F, 77L and 77W as-is with thinner sidewalls to allow 3+4+3 and move it to the GE9X engine. That will reduce the trip fuel load that can then be used to support the extra passenger and bag weight. I really want to know what GE can do with the GE90 in terms of PiPs based on GE9X technologies, as well, because that could extend the useful life of existing 77F, 77L and 77W airframes, pushing back the replacement window.



Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 45):
Is it not possible to (increase weights) with the current 77W?

The 777-300ER is as heavy as she can get in terms of MTOW. Tire loading, wing loading and single-engine out thrust are close to their limits so there is little to no headroom.
 
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 3:30 pm

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 45):
One thing that's on my mind here though... The A330, specifically the 300. Since its debut, there have been steady and incremental improvements with MTOW & operational efficiencies. To the point where a 1995 build is not really comparable to something rolling out of Toulouse next week.

The original 777 wasn't the 77L/W/F. Those are already what you're talking about.
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 3:46 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 21):
Airbus announced a two-year delay to the A350-800 and A350-1000 EIS to 2017 in June of 2011.

The 777-300ER then went on to have it's best sales year ever with A350 customers like EK, SU, CX, QR, SQ, TG, EY and JJ accounting for half of the orders placed.

Correct me if I am wrong, those 77W are for delivery before the pre-delay A350-1000 EIS ? in the CX case how much of that 77W order had to do with plans to accelerate the disposal of 744s. How much is one connected to the other ? Didn't the middle east customers say they were happy with the original A350-1000 and were not happy with the delay in the because they would have like to have the A350-1000 sooner, rather than the improved capabilities ? The main reason for the A350-1000 delay is to provide improved capabilities, it is not a production related.

How many 77Ws have been ordered for after the A350-1000 EIS ?

Quoting flightsimer (Reply 33):
You mean like how all the carriers intending on replacing A330s with 787 ended up ordering more A330s as a stop gap aircraft until the 787s could arrive because they were already familiar with them?

Not familiar with that, care to list the airlines ? What normally happens with delays is that airlines retain their older aircraft longer before disposing of them (in the case of the A350-1000 they will also be replacing 77Ws in some airlines), or delay route expansion that needs the new technology to make the route work, work on code share arrangements, or try and lease equipment. This results in a less profitable fleet/network, however the airlines do not grind to a stop.

Quoting davs5032 (Reply 39):
I don't recall anyone saying it would be better at all, and even if they did, it's never been adopted by more than one or two outliers on here; not a widely-shared belief as you seem to imply.

There have been numerous threads where people have used all sorts of metrics to say the 777X will be a serious contender for the A350-1000, and some people even suggesting that Airbus should not even bother building it as they will not have competitive product. Then CX orders a large number of A350-1000s despite the 77W and 777X being on the table.

Quoting davs5032 (Reply 39):
EK, the biggest consumer in the market, was upset with the 77X not being brought to market sooner, is that not confidence?

They said the same about the A350, A380, 787, and 748, it is not unusual for an airline to want to have a machine that delivers better seat mile costs sooner. Middle east carrier say a lot of things, and do not always follow through.

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 52):
For the same reason as airlines that bought A330s in light of 787 delays.

I think that is bit of an a.net myth, an not a good example for the 77W as the cost of purchasing and operating the 77W is much higher than the A330. An airline could never justify the expense of multiple 77W orders (which would be needed to replace multiple A350s delayed and cost potentially over a billion dollars) for a short term fix to cover short delays. It may make sense for airlines to lease short term capacity, but that capacity does not need to be a 77W. ULH machines have a higher percentage of fuel burn in the direct operating costs, the rate at which return would come back is lower than medium haul.
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:46 pm

Quoting airproxx (Reply 54):
Really? So Boeing didn't build a 77W purposely to compete against a fuel guzzler A346 that has never sold well? Interesting...

You have got your facts totally wrong here. The A346 was by far the most efficient large civilian airliner when it entered service. It's bad luck were two things:

1. It did not reach the expected performance (which was more or less resolved with the HGW-variant), but even then it was by far the most capable airframe available (also beating the payload of the B744).
2. The B77W came shortly after (3 years) and turned out to exceed the expected performance which even Boeing and GE had not anticipated by quite a margin. Some say 10% better then expected by Boeing/GE.

That killed off the chances of the A346 in the market. But it was by no means a fuel guzzler as many make her out to be. But she could not get near the absolute stellar economic performance of the B77W, which by itself also hurt the B744-sales and is even still hurting the B748i-sales.

Quoting airproxx (Reply 54):
Airbus definitely entered a direct model to model competition with Boeing, in designing a 777-200ER replacement. Will Airbus be able to stretch it to a -1100 or even -1200 version that can compete with a 77W?

The A350-900 is the B777-200 replacement. And is selling extremely well.

The A350-1000 kicks the B77W's butt every day of the week and twice on Sunday's with not a drop of sweat on the forehead. No question about it and it is the reason Boeing must do something serious to the B77W, hence the proposed B777-X program. And so-far that is not being put into execution shortly, and so far the market has doubts about the concept.

And A350-1100/200 would of course easily beat the B777-8X/9X. That is obvious and needs no explanation.         (parody of course).

[Edited 2012-10-27 09:55:35]
 
sweair
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:54 pm

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 65):
The A350-1000 kicks the B77W's butt every day of the week and twice on Sunday's with not a drop of sweat on the forehead. No question about it and it is the reason Boeing must do something serious to the B77W, hence the proposed B777-X program.

But the 77W will still sell well, unlike Zeke I say it is the A330 vs 787 all over again. Tell us again how the 1000 model can cover all of the market?! Resources and slots and the cost of re training. Even if there is no 777-X the 77W will still sell enough to make Boeing a healthy profit. And the 787 will undermine the A350 from below.
 
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:57 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 60):

Quoting cosmofly (Reply 59):
I actually worry about the A380s. My belief is that it will do quite well if left unchecked.

And that's a reason to worry because...?   

In the name of Boeing  
 
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:57 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 66):
But the 77W will still sell well

Oh, and she will continue to sell well even after the A350-1000 is out there. Just like the A330 is indeed still selling extremely strong even now the B787 is being delivered. But she won't be the benchmark in her segment anymore. That title will then easily go to the A350-1000 XWB.
 
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 5:04 pm

Huge win for Airbus!!

If Boeing thinks this will prolong the 777's and 748i's cash yield, I really doubt that. Cynical monopolist move.
 
sweair
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 5:05 pm

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 68):
But she won't be the benchmark in her segment anymore. That title will then easily go to the A350-1000 XWB.

Yeah but it will again be lost when B goes for the Y3 and that is IMO a much better idea, with CFRP gen2 coming online soon and an engine Gen after the current, 2025 is a good target for the 77W replacement  
 
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 5:08 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 70):
Yeah but it will again be lost when B goes for the Y3

That could very well be, but the differences in performance gains are getting smaller and smaller. The differences in economic performance will therefore not be so great as for example the B744 vs. the B77W which in today's markets are still direct competitors flying the same routes.

And so far they are not at that point yet.  Wink

[Edited 2012-10-27 10:09:07]
 
tdscanuck
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 5:15 pm

Quoting Flighty (Reply 69):
Huge win for Airbus!!

How so? The A350, as a cleansheet, was always going to out do the 777...it was only a question of by how much. Both airframe will be production-rate limited for a long time. If Boeing launched the 777X it would put some pressure on Airbus by closing part of the performance gap but they certainly weren't going to close it fully. By not doing the 777X Boeing puts themselves in a much better position for their next cleansheet.

Note: I'm *not* saying this move isn't good for Airbus, just questioning labelling it a "huge win".

Quoting Flighty (Reply 69):
If Boeing thinks this will prolong the 777's and 748i's cash yield, I really doubt that.

How could it not? If they do the 777X, the cashflow goes *way* negative for many years while they recover the investement. If they don't do the 777X, the 777 keeps going and generating cash. Unless 777 sales dropped off so much that they couldn't actually keep the production line full (which I've never heard anyone even remotely forecast for many years) then, yes, this decision will prolong the 777 and 748i's cash yield.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 69):
Cynical monopolist move.

Except they're not a monopolist, and both Boeing and Airbus know that, so that can't be the reason.

Tom.
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 5:51 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 58):

I just reacted to the all so dominant A350-1000 is a 777 killer, it takes a lot of time to up the build rate, I have a hard time seeing how the A350-1000 would be able to dominate the current 777 market, look at the ramp up of the 787, its slow and the A330 will have good sales for years to come.

If they were to replace the 777 80/20 they would have to produce say 6 1000 models a month from the start. In 2020 the 77W will still be safe. I just think this place is filled with dreamers. Reality is a cold and hard place..

It won't happen that soon. Like said above: the A350 production won't reach 10 frames a month until 2018. Every increase of that number is something for beyond 2018.
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zeke
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 6:17 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 66):
But the 77W will still sell well, unlike Zeke I say it is the A330 vs 787 all over again.

I have actually said the same myself, but it will be a little more skewed as these are B/C-market aircraft (77W/A350) where the 787/A330 are more competitive in A/B-markets. B/C-market airframes have a high percentage of the DOC being fuel, and airlines operating at the upper range of the B-market and C market will see the most benefit from the 787 and A350. Not all operators will need a -1000 to compete with a 77W, the -900 is also serious competitor, just like a 77W can do most of the job of a 744. Some airlines will not buy the A350 because it is an Airbus as well, I would never expect for example Airbus to have a serious chance in airlines that have traditionally been very strong with Boeing aircraft for the long haul fleet choice.

Boeing will not stop selling 77Ws, but very few airlines have yet to put the 77W against the A350-1000 as a fleet replacement comparison, what we are seeing is fleet expansion, and the existing type in the fleet will have the short term advantage there. I think you will find around the time the A350-1000 EIS is due, will be around the sweet spot when airlines will look for 300 seat B/C market replacement aircraft. The 77W has not hit 10 years yet, it is still a very competitive airframe today, it SHOULD be selling well in its prime.

Airlines looking at the A350-1000 now are taking the longer term view, there are not many of those.
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sweair
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 7:19 pm

In 2020 the 777 is 30 years old and I think less people will feel that doing a ng/max version is a good idea and vote for the Y3. By 2020 we all should know how the A350-1000 performed and where there are areas to leap it, as the Y3 should replace both the 777 and the 747 it has to be a very good design in any way.
By 2025 maybe new tech that is too immature right now is available, gen 2 or 3 of cfrp, carbon nanotube etc. The F35 is pioneering this I read, but it is expensive as we all know, not something for the mass market yet. And there is the engine program going for USAF, could be useful in civilian engines too.

I think B should pass on the 777-X and go all in for a Y3 design.
 
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zeke
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 7:58 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 75):
In 2020 the 777 is 30 years old

The 77W will be 16...
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justloveplanes
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 8:23 pm

Perhaps Boeing is realizing that the three year delay to the 787 can't really be recovered from a strategic point of view, the damage is done. Assuming their original schedule for Y3 was around the late teens (I am assuming about 10 years EIS between 787 and Y3 at 2008) and would be built on carbon fiber barrels.

Stiff medicine as that delay will cede two VERY profitable years to the A3510 as the 777 cycle comes up for replacement. Boeing still may be waiting for performance and longevity data on the CFRP barrels and the electric centric architecture to make a final decision. I believe it is entirely possible barrels are still the way of the future. Boeing's delays were on manufacturing processes, management and delays due to the wingbox/wing and electrical system. The barrel construction seems the least of the problems Boeing had on the 787.

Assuming the above, Boeing can make an inferior plane to the A3510 with an aluminum fuselage plane on time, but a second place solution for 25 years.. or they can bite the bullet and make a better one and lose two critical years of sales.

It's not a easy question, the NEO almost ran away with the entire NB market while Boeing fiddled. If Boeing is going to go with Y3, they need to lighten and re-engine the 777 as is an do it quickly to use the time value of dollar savings to persuade airlines to buy early make money now and plan for Y3.

I think this is what the plan B will do. The future is unknown (how will the A350 do? It's future is unclear) and going with one's strength's is always a good bet. There isn't a silver bullet for Boeing any more and perhaps the reality is sinking in.
 
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sat Oct 27, 2012 11:37 pm

Quoting airproxx (Reply 54):
So Boeing didn't build a 77W purposely to compete against a fuel guzzler A346 that has never sold well?

See EPA001's reply in post 65.

Quoting airproxx (Reply 54):
Airbus definitely entered a direct model to model competition with Boeing, in designing a 777-200ER replacement.

I tend to think A350 as a A330/A340 replacement. Obviously there will be overlap with Boeing's product so there is competition, but 772ER is already on life support thanks to 789 and A333.

Quoting airproxx (Reply 54):
Unless the A380 fuel efficiency is not that "good" per seat compared to other aircraft

We know from SQ that A380 is more efficient than 77W. However, 77W flew off the shelf in 2011 while A380 sales pale in comparison. Oh, did I mention 747-8i?
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sun Oct 28, 2012 8:31 am

Quoting sweair (Reply 75):
the Y3 should replace both the 777 and the 747

.....which will make it a segment bigger than the A350. Not actually a direct competitor, but it will challenge Airbus to offer something between A3510 and A388.
 
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sun Oct 28, 2012 8:55 am

Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 79):
.which will make it a segment bigger than the A350. Not actually a direct competitor, but it will challenge Airbus to offer something between A3510 and A388.

Airbus has the gap between A321 and A350-800 in the future as well, how long will the A332 live on? And the A358 is a big aircraft compared to A332. Airbus has no real 788 competitor going forward. 200-270 seats is a big segment. The A333 seems to have a brighter future then its smaller sibling.
 
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sun Oct 28, 2012 1:30 pm

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 61):
I think the 777X will become as much a new aircraft just as the 767X became the 777, and become 'Y3' (FWIW). Cockpit and fuselage diameter may become the only thing in common with the current 777.

The thing with the 767-X was that it received almost instant criticism the moment concepts were sent to airlines for evaluation. The reception for the 777X is much warmer. In addition, the problem with the 767-X was that it was too narrow. It was going to be a stretched, wingletted and humpbacked 767-300, but it maintained the 7-abreast configuration. Airlines wanted - and needed something closer to 747 size.

Quoting zeke (Reply 64):
Not familiar with that, care to list the airlines ?

SQ for one. Yes, you might argue that they were only short term leases, but it's an order nonetheless to operate an interim aircraft before the 787 arrived.

Quoting zeke (Reply 64):
There have been numerous threads where people have used all sorts of metrics to say the 777X will be a serious contender for the A350-1000

I see no reason why the 777X can't be a serious competitor to the A350-1000.

Quoting zeke (Reply 64):
Then CX orders a large number of A350-1000s despite the 77W and 777X being on the table.

As I've said in that thread, an order for the A350-1000 doesn't mean that they won't order the 777X in the future. The 777-9X is larger than the A350-1000, and I believe they can both co-exist in the same fleet.

Quoting zeke (Reply 64):
I think that is bit of an a.net myth, an not a good example for the 77W as the cost of purchasing and operating the 77W is much higher than the A330. An airline could never justify the expense of multiple 77W orders (which would be needed to replace multiple A350s delayed and cost potentially over a billion dollars) for a short term fix to cover short delays.

That hasn't stopped airlines ordering more 77Ws despite also having A350-1000s on order. Cost is all relative. Yes, the 77W will cost more to acquire and to operate than A330s, that much is obvious, but so, too, is the A350-1000 more expensive to acquire and to operate than the A330. The only comparison that's valid is whether the 77W's cost disadvantage relative to the A350-1000 can be offset by losses which may potentially be caused by any further delays to the A350-1000.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 65):
every day of the week and twice on Sunday's
A Few Good Men  
Quoting EPA001 (Reply 65):
And so-far that is not being put into execution shortly, and so far the market has doubts about the concept.

I don't agree. Airlines have expressed strong interest over the 777X. Boeing don't have to put the 777X program into execution any time soon - certainly not until Airbus has finalised its plans for the A350-1000 sometime further down the track. I think the 777X will only come into existence after the design has frozen on the A350-1000. This has nothing to do with 'doubts', but it has all to do with timing.

Quoting zeke (Reply 76):
The 77W will be 16...

That's where the 777X comes in.
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sun Oct 28, 2012 2:05 pm

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 81):
not until Airbus has finalised its plans for the A350-1000 sometime further down the track. I think the 777X will only come into existence after the design has frozen on the A350-1000.

I keep reading this. What aspects of the -1000 are not finalised that would have any direct impact on Boeing's decision making about the 777X, yet are apparently finalised enough for airlines to have ordered it in both original and revised form?   
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sun Oct 28, 2012 3:05 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 64):
Then CX orders a large number of A350-1000s despite the 77W and 777X being on the table.

The A350-1000 makes a better 777-300 replacement than the 777-300ER, so I am of the opinion that we can safely assume 12 are earmarked for that purpose. And I could see the other 14 being used to replace A330-300s and A340-300s in the most desirable slots on high-traffic routes. I expect they also would make a good 77G variation 777-300ER replacement.

Yes, you have noted that the A350-1000 projects to be better than the 777-300ER on almost the entire CX route system, so I don't expect any more 777-300ER orders going forward, but I would not be surprised if Boeing has not been able to offer CX sufficiently-detailed information for them to perform an accurate system-wide analysis of how it compares to the A350-1000. Should CX have already decided the 777X is not a viable option for them going forward, I expect it would be for other reasons.

[Edited 2012-10-28 08:13:11]
 
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sun Oct 28, 2012 3:23 pm

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 81):
I see no reason why the 777X can't be a serious competitor to the A350-1000.

There's a decade and a half or so of development in between. That's not to say the 777X couldn't match the A350-1000 on a per seat cost basis, but it won't do it without adding more seats. And those seats need to be filled, so while it may be a nice plane for Emirates and some other airlines, it won't be in the running for a lot of others.

Overall, I think that no 777X will be a runaway success or potentially take the wind from the A350's sales. But, it might be a nice enough product if it arrives in 2017-2018 but probably subpar if it arrives later than 2020.
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sun Oct 28, 2012 3:41 pm

On the timescales that we're talking about, the outlook could change significantly. Whilst Airbus and Boeing are currently the only serious companies in 737-size and above passenger jets, by the next decade we could quite possibly see Embraer or a Chinese company enter the market.
 
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sun Oct 28, 2012 3:56 pm

COMAC is already entering it with the C-919, but I don't expect them to sell outside of China and some Chinese client states in Africa for some time due to lack of MRO capabilities in most major markets.
 
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sun Oct 28, 2012 4:23 pm

Sure, COMAC will need some time to make a name for itself, but with the speed at which China is developing, as well as Asia in general, and with the growing influence of China globally, it would be foolish not to take it as a potential threat (from Airbus and Boeing's points of view) in the future.

COMAC may not pose a threat to the models that Airbus and Boeing are proposing for the early 2020s, but I expect by then COMAC will already have its own track record, and will likely be in the running for any future developments.

Of course this is all just speculation, but with major realignment taking place in world development and economy, it cannot be taken for granted that Airbus and Boeing will remain the only serious competitors on a scale of 10-20 years from now.

[Edited 2012-10-28 09:24:56]
 
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zeke
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Sun Oct 28, 2012 4:37 pm

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 81):

SQ for one. Yes, you might argue that they were only short term leases, but it's an order nonetheless to operate an interim aircraft before the 787 arrived.

You mean these A330s ? They were tied to the A350s

http://www.airbus.com/presscentre/pr...es-signs-contract-for-20-a350-xwb/

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 81):
As I've said in that thread, an order for the A350-1000 doesn't mean that they won't order the 777X in the future.

Not in the current form.

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 81):
That hasn't stopped airlines ordering more 77Ws despite also having A350-1000s on order.

Not aware of any airline that has ordered 77Ws that will have a delivery date the same as the A350-1000. Talking about orders and not disclosing when they will enter service is misleading everyone. Airlines will have 777s running beside A350s, very few have actually run the two against each other for new deliveries at the same time.
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Mon Oct 29, 2012 11:50 am

Quoting airproxx (Reply 36):
Agreed, but I would add that if Boeing manages to launch a very efficient 77X, the A350 will soon become obsolete

Never will that happen. No 777 tranformation will ever reach the technology level of the A350. At worst the A350 could always be kept ahead of the 77X by applying a similar transformation.

Theat means beating it having the same capacity won't be possible. So as a last ressort Boeing will have to try to open up new markets for larger aircraft (than the 77W or the A351). As they are doing with the 77X.

Quoting airproxx (Reply 32):
But the biggest part of the market is definitely the 77W replacement.

No 777 version in any shape will replace the 77W anymore. The 77X will only survive by avoiding exactly that "biggest part of the market". And because it is not a 300-350 seater it is therefore not a real 77W replacement. It needs much more capacity to stay competitive. So much more that RFP's for 300-350-seaters won't be answered adequately anymore.

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 38):
Depending upon how good the 351 ends up

How good the A351 ends up can be seen in the specs from Airbus. That it will fail to achieve those is very unlikely. So building on the opposite assumption (that it would fail) is a very shaky starting point for Boeing to plan their future. Because no aircraft from Airbus (or Boeing) failed to deliver the promised specifications since a long time (except time promises, e.g. even if the first 20 copies fail to meet the specs this should be seen just as an additional delay until the spec is met).

Quoting sweair (Reply 49):
I cant see Airbus having the resources of producing 7-10 A350-1000 frames a month. That would mean no 900 models or 800 models at all.

Production capacity is rarely limiting the long term success of an item. It will always be adjusted if the item is capable to rule a certain market. Did Boeing have any troubles to produce enough 77W's once it was clear, that the competition was not up to par?

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 52):
Quoting EPA001 (Reply 34):
I am not so sure that is the case. I see Boeing hesitating and trailing now

I don't agree. Boeing are in no hurry to release the 777X - not because they're hesitating, but because they're waiting for Airbus to show its cards first.

The point was that Boeing appears to be telling one story this time and another soon after. That means that they feel insecure about the 777x....

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 56):
Quoting cosmofly (Reply 55):
How much of a derivative it is if it has a totally new CFRP wing with a lot more lift?

The 737NG is also a derivative with a totally new wing ...

But it does also not have the much more relevant point cosmofly mentioned.

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 56):
The number, and the profit, is in competing with the A350XWB, not with the A380.

Correct, but the 77X has more the capability and size to compete with the 748i (which should be easy but also not quite as rewarding than competing with the A350).

Quoting sweair (Reply 58):
I just reacted to the all so dominant A350-1000 is a 777 killer, it takes a lot of time to up the build rate, I have a hard time seeing how the A350-1000 would be able to dominate the current 777 market, look at the ramp up of the 787, its slow and the A330 will have good sales for years to come.

I don't believe that the A330 will get anything else than follow-on orders from now on.

Quoting sweair (Reply 58):
In 2020 the 77W will still be safe.

So you think Boeing overreacted as they seemed to doubt that assertion? If the 77W would be safe in 2020 they could still start talking about the 77X then.

Quoting cosmofly (Reply 59):
Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 57):
A 80m 777-9X may actually beat A388 CASM.

The fuel burn figures from Boeing for the 77X don't indicate that this will be the case (note: I am aware how the fuel burn impacts CASM).

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 81):
I see no reason why the 777X can't be a serious competitor to the A350-1000.

You say this and one sentence later you bring up a fully perfect example why the 777X and the A351 won't compete with each other:

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 81):
As I've said in that thread, an order for the A350-1000 doesn't mean that they won't order the 777X in the future. The 777-9X is larger than the A350-1000, and I believe they can both co-exist in the same fleet.

As you say: the 77X will be larger, so the overlapping is so small that you think, they can even co-exist in the same fleet! Competing aircraft only rarely end up in the same fleet.
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Mon Oct 29, 2012 1:55 pm

Quoting rheinwaldner (Reply 89):
No 777 version in any shape will replace the 77W anymore. The 77X will only survive by avoiding exactly that "biggest part of the market". And because it is not a 300-350 seater it is therefore not a real 77W replacement. It needs much more capacity to stay competitive. So much more that RFP's for 300-350-seaters won't be answered adequately anymore.

  

Quoting Stitch (Reply 62):
The 777-8X should be as long as the 777-300ER and the 777-9 should be 79-80m. I know at that point there are worries about tail strikes and take-off runs due to a shallow rotation angle, but raw capacity is the only real weapon that plane has in it's arsenal against the A350-1000, IMO.

  

Its an interesting dichotomy, turning a popular 350 seater into a 400 seater to compete with a new 350 seater. As rheinwaldner points out, the 777-9X (which is really what the 777X program is all about) is not really an appropriate platform to offer for 350 seat RFP's.

The 777-8X is a somewhat poor effort to tick the 350 seat box by Boeing as a token gesture and this has been recognised by the market. I question whether the 777X should be a 2 aircraft family at all. I understand that R&D costs are shared between the two but I think Boeing should concentrate on getting one aircraft right rather than getting two aircraft wrong in terms of capacity and performance and (ultimately) what the market wants.

The 77W was a single model and I think its replacement should be a single model, throwing a second aircraft into the mix seems to be a distraction at the moment. As Stitch has suggested, the 77L and 77F can continue as they are - they have little or no competition and are not begging for replacement. I don't know just what the ideal size for the 777X is but I suspect Boeing haven't figured it out either at this stage.


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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Mon Oct 29, 2012 4:28 pm

So to really win SQ and CX orders the Y3 has the be a comfortable 3-4-3 cabin? Is that all that matters for these airlines? EK wants range and wont care about seating comfort, most other airlines probably ask for the most efficient airframe possible.

At what fuel price will SQ find it hard to compete with their strict seating policy?
 
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Mon Oct 29, 2012 5:39 pm

Quoting rheinwaldner (Reply 89):

Quoting cosmofly (Reply 59):
Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 57):
A 80m 777-9X may actually beat A388 CASM.

The fuel burn figures from Boeing for the 77X don't indicate that this will be the case (note: I am aware how the fuel burn impacts CASM).


Airbus publication, even if one believes it is unbiased, said A380 has 12% fuel burn per seat advantage over 77W.

http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/medi...eration_new_experience_leaflet.pdf

Assuming Airbus maximizes claim by using SQ, not EK, configurations, a 80m 777-9x can add 6 rows x 9 abreast = 54 Y seats, 19% more seats and still maintain the primium to Y ratio as an A380.

The above requires both be fully loaded, which is not likely. And one must assume Boeing will calculate very differently. In the end, it is not difficult to see an 80m 777-9X can have CASM advantage, and a lot more in EK's case.

And finally, there is the cargo advantage for the 777.
 
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Mon Oct 29, 2012 5:49 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 91):
At what fuel price will SQ find it hard to compete with their strict seating policy?

The insistence on luxury seating in Y is already having an effect. SQ is having to create Scoot, with 3-4-3 772s and later 3-3-3 789s, to stay competitive in all but the most premium markets while not diluting the SQ brand.
 
sweair
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Mon Oct 29, 2012 6:00 pm

SQ might end up with its LCC paying the bills in the end  
 
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Mon Oct 29, 2012 8:33 pm

Quoting cosmofly (Reply 92):
Airbus publication, even if one believes it is unbiased, said A380 has 12% fuel burn per seat advantage over 77W.

You found a good link. As fuel burn is only the second best figure to measure the overall efficiency, let's use cash operating cost. The cash operating cost advantage of the 779X vs the 77W is stated with 16% by Boeing ( http://www.flightglobal.com/Features/Boeing-777-special/777X ). The A380 is however declared to be 21% better than the 77W (in your linked doucment). So the 77X will close only two third of the gap....
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Mon Oct 29, 2012 8:41 pm

My take away: This all but assures that the 781 is on the horizon and that a Y3 clean sheet will be the reality going forward. I agree with those who say that the sweet spot in the wide body market will be somewhere between the current 777/A350 and 748/A388/9 sized aircraft. The 787-10 will complete the family and will be a relatively low-cost derivative with all of the efficiency lessons learned from the 789. The A380 will continue to do better than the 748...but that's not saying much. The path forward for Boeing is likely a wait and see approach and then to proceed with a "bigger twin" clean sheet Y3.
They "bet the company" on the 747 and essentially did the same on the 787, and both were good decisions in the long run as the 787 will, in all likelihood, eventually make a ton of money and be their wide body "bread and butter" for a while. I see no reason to take a conservative approach to a 777 replacement, aside from the hard lessons learned on 787. I also can't see even an updated 25 year old design being all that competitive in that time frame (748?).
I don't see Airbus sitting still, though. They'll likely already have A350 incremental improvements underway and maybe A380 improvements as well, and there's no telling what they'll have up their sleeves otherwise.

....but what do I know?  
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Mon Oct 29, 2012 8:58 pm

The bulk of the replacement market right now is A330-300, A340-300, 777-200 and 777-200ER.

For ULH (12 hour or more) missions, the A350-900 is going to be very strong, though the 787-9 looks to be able to generally hold her own. I see Boeing's strategy as bracketing the A350-900 with the 787-9 below and the 777-8X above, however by the time the 777-8X arrives the ULH market should have mostly completed it's replacement cycle so the interest in the 777-8X is lukewarm.

For MH-LH (10 hours or less) missions, the 787-10 is going to very strong. I see Airbus actually using the A350-1000 as a competitor, as it would match the 787-10's cargo volume and the extra 5 meters of fuselage cabin length means an extra 45 Economy passenger carried, which will help with the CASM.
 
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Mon Oct 29, 2012 9:08 pm

Quoting rheinwaldner (Reply 95):
The cash operating cost advantage of the 779X vs the 77W is stated with 16% by Boeing

I am not a fan of Boeing's 76m 777-9X idea.

My argument is based on a 80m 777-9X. I am also suggesting the 777-8X should be same lenght as the 77W, not the shorter Boeing idea.
 
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RE: Boeing Delays 777x To Early 2020's

Mon Oct 29, 2012 10:23 pm

Quoting rheinwaldner (Reply 95):
The A380 is however declared to be 21% better than the 77W (in your linked doucment). So the 77X will close only two third of the gap....

Airbus also says that the A350-1000 will have a 25% operating cost advantage over the 777-300ER,

http://www.noticiaslatamsales.com/en...ore-Appealing-to-Emerging-Markets-

Given the lower risk of operating a smaller aircraft, this would seem to say that the A350-1000 hurts the A380 sales prospects.
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