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Mortyman
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Fri Nov 09, 2012 11:27 pm

You can read about Norwegian's longhaul for USA and ASIA flights here. Food, inflight entertainment and what is included in the various pricecategories etc:

http://www.norwegian.com/uk/travel-information/travel-services/

http://www.norwegian.com/uk/travel-i...ertainment/north-america-and-asia/

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Navigator
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sat Nov 10, 2012 7:03 am

Quoting arn777 (Reply 44):
MIA for sure

Even if Norwegian maybe has talked about MIA I doubt that route would be ahead of for instance LAX, SEA or even Washington. I even doubt MIA would open at all. But I have not checked their plans closely here, Im just speculating since there is not a lot traffic going through to MIA from Scandinavia that could sustain any regular route year round. MIA was popular in the 70:s and 80:s but not so much anymore... Northwest, Tower Air and Air Florida flew from ARN for a while but I doubt it would be profitable now even if they may start it. So much for my speculation  
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g2scandinavia
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sat Nov 10, 2012 8:07 am

Quoting Navigator (Reply 51):
. I even doubt MIA would open at all. But I have not checked their plans closely here, I'm just speculating since there is not a lot traffic going through to MIA from Scandinavia that could sustain any regular route year round

If that's your opinion, you have really not done your homework. Florida with Orlando, Miami and Fort Lauderdale are largest state for visitors in the US in terms of arrivals from Norway and Sweden after EWR and JFK. MIA is also among the most undeserved routes from HEL and CPH. 2 or 3 weekly in the winter would most definitely be a hit.
 
sweair
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sat Nov 10, 2012 9:30 am

I went to MIA on Tower Air, I still remember that they had quite worn gear back then and we had to dump fuel and land in Labrador somewhere as a lady developed breathing problems on the way back, I think there was a doctor on board and he had to cut a breathing whole in the throat with whatever was on board. I used to have a big family in MIA back then, none left sadly.
 
Joost
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sat Nov 10, 2012 9:45 am

Quoting doug_Or (Reply 49):
Looks like they are hiring contract pilots to be based in BKK. I would have assumed they base in Europe, but I guess if BKK goes to both ARN and OSL that might make things easier?

Most of all, hiring outside Europe is in order to avoid expensive taxes.
 
Mortyman
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sat Nov 10, 2012 9:51 am

Quoting Navigator (Reply 51):
Air Florida flew from ARN for a while

From Oslo too back in 82
 
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sat Nov 10, 2012 12:27 pm

Quoting g2scandinavia (Reply 52):
If that's your opinion, you have really not done your homework. Florida with Orlando, Miami and Fort Lauderdale are largest state for visitors in the US in terms of arrivals from Norway and Sweden after EWR and JFK. MIA is also among the most undeserved routes from HEL and CPH. 2 or 3 weekly in the winter would most definitely be a hit.

I suspect you are wrong here but you could also be right. Id like to see statistics. There is a marked difference between MIA, FLL and MCO. The latter two probably more popular now,right? However with your statement I would like to hear where you put Chicago, Washington and Los Angeles. I would suspect they are ahead in terms of traffic from ARN. Also remember that traffic from OSL probably differs from ARN in that the latter has more business traffic. I agree that FLL draws traffic to the cruises but now MIA is a different thing. You may be right, but pls show this.
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g2scandinavia
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sat Nov 10, 2012 1:06 pm

Quoting Navigator (Reply 56):
. However with your statement I would like to hear where you put Chicago, Washington and Los Angeles. I would suspect they are ahead in terms of traffic from ARN
Quoting g2scandinavia (Reply 52):
Florida with Orlando, Miami and Fort Lauderdale are largest state for visitors in the US in terms of arrivals from Norway and Sweden after EWR and JFK

From what I learned in my geography, Washington, Los Angeles and Chicago are not in the same state 
My point is that Miami will serve as an attractive connection to the whole of Florida for leisure pax flying in with DY.

It's by the way Norwegin who have said that Miami will be one of it's next destination.
I'm just quoting their plans.
 
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sat Nov 10, 2012 1:25 pm

Quoting g2scandinavia (Reply 57):
From what I learned in my geography, Washington, Los Angeles and Chicago are not in the same state
My point is that Miami will serve as an attractive connection to the whole of Florida for leisure pax flying in with DY.

It's by the way Norwegin who have said that Miami will be one of it's next destination.
I'm just quoting their plans.

I skip you geography joke   you started talking about Florida as a state, I stick to destinations... But firstly I think there is a marked difference between traffic from ARN to the US and OSL to the US. I think OSL may have more traffic to MIA while ARN with other patterns and more business travel will have markedly less. ARN will probably also have more potential to LAX, ORD, IAH and others than MIA and also more to LAX, ORD and IAH than OSL. You can prove me wrong if you like   Also Norwegians MIA plans probably have to do with catering for Norwegian traffic rather than Swedish... Just a thought

And also those are rumors... (Have we heard rumors before from OSL...)

[Edited 2012-11-10 05:29:28]
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sat Nov 10, 2012 3:26 pm

By the way in previous message I mean IAD and not IAH. I also think SFO has more potential than MIA. And for swedish travelers California has more potential than Florida...
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HELyes
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sat Nov 10, 2012 5:25 pm

Quoting copenhagenboy (Reply 25):
3-3-3 and 31". Apparently limited recline, but the type of seat where the cusion slides forward
Quoting copenhagenboy (Reply 25):
Ouch, that is narrow for a 10 hour flight.

Ouch was my first reaction too.
LAN Chile also have 3-3-3 on their 787, with the seat width 16.8". Hopefully DY is closer to United's 17.3"... ANA and JAL both have generous 2-4-2 and 18.5", according to SeatGuru.

Seat widths for the comparison:

Singapore 333/773/380: 19"
Finnair wide bodies: 18"
KLM wide bodies: 17.5"
 
sweair
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sat Nov 10, 2012 5:36 pm

Maybe Norwegian will serve ARN like SK never did? Me thinks the swedes will find a new "national" airline  

Those large persons who need above 17 inches of shoulder room have plenty of options, a grand world this!  
 
g2scandinavia
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sat Nov 10, 2012 6:14 pm

Quoting Navigator (Reply 56):
. Also remember that traffic from OSL probably differs from ARN in that the latter has more business traffic.

That depends very much on the destination and I'm not only referring to Houston.
Arlanda have approximately 30% more international pax than OSL.
A the same time, most airlines are reporting higher loads of business pax on the flights from OSL, compared to ARN
(you will find many references in the Scandinavian threads on a.net about the airlines reports on business pax from OSL/ARN/CPH) so you statement are not accurate and far from valid as an argument for the premium markets in Scandinavia.
 
MAH4546
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sat Nov 10, 2012 6:18 pm

Quoting Navigator (Reply 58):
I think OSL may have more traffic to MIA while ARN with other patterns and more business travel will have markedly less. ARN will probably also have more potential to LAX, ORD, IAH and others than MIA and also more to LAX, ORD and IAH than OSL. You can prove me wrong if you like  

2011 MIDT traffic figures show that the annual traffic between Stockholm and Miami/Lauderdale is close to 70,000 travelers. Not only is it the second largest U.S.-Sweden market, it is one of the largest U.S.-Europe markets without a non-stop.
a.
 
g2scandinavia
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sat Nov 10, 2012 6:33 pm

Quoting Navigator (Reply 58):

You know what, I'm totally going to recapitulate on my statement here and give you right 
I looked at the wrong sheet for end destinations and I used the Numbers from Norway as s whole in stead of ARN.
I'm abroad an on my IPhone, so I messed it up here.

The list is EWR/JFK, SFO, LAX, BOS, IAH, MIA, MCO and SEA. (in that order).
MCO and MIA together would make it just under LAX, but larger than SFO.

Again, sorry!
 
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HELyes
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sat Nov 10, 2012 6:44 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 61):
Those large persons who need above 17 inches of shoulder room have plenty of options, a grand world this!

I'm a skinny guy who appreciates shoulder room but I certainly will try DY 787 if the price/connections work for me. Great to have a new long haul option!   
 
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sat Nov 10, 2012 6:47 pm

Quoting g2scandinavia (Reply 64):
You know what, I'm totally going to recapitulate on my statement here and give you right

You did not need to do that. Ive been in the business long enough to know I was right. But I appreciate you recognizing this. Well done!!
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sat Nov 10, 2012 6:50 pm

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 63):
2011 MIDT traffic figures show that the annual traffic between Stockholm and Miami/Lauderdale is close to 70,000 travelers. Not only is it the second largest U.S.-Sweden market, it is one of the largest U.S.-Europe markets without a non-stop.

You know what? MIA is way down the list. And do not combine two destinations. Check the correction by g2scandinavia.And again I am talking about ARN and I highly doubt it is the second largets Sweden US market because that would be something else... Try to combine SFO and LAX while youre at it  Smile



[Edited 2012-11-10 10:57:41]

[Edited 2012-11-10 10:59:12]
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MAH4546
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sat Nov 10, 2012 8:16 pm

Quoting Navigator (Reply 67):
You know what? MIA is way down the list. And do not combine two destinations. Check the correction by g2scandinavia.And again I am talking about ARN and I highly doubt it is the second largets Sweden US market because that would be something else... Try to combine SFO and LAX while youre at it

No, it's not.

And I'm not combining destinations. Miami and Ft. Lauderdale are 20 minutes apart. Do you want me to not combine JFK and EWR, then? It's the same thing.

I just double checked the numbers, here are 2011 hoardings:

MIACPH: 68,008
MIAARN: 62,090
MIAOSL: 31,530
MIAGOT: 22,223

Facts are facts: it's the second largest U.S.-Sweden market, but the average fare absolutely sucks, barely above $400 each way.

[Edited 2012-11-10 12:25:09]
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Mortyman
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sat Nov 10, 2012 8:50 pm

I beleave Norwegian has a cooperation with Royal Caribbean Cruiselines. Could this be the reason why Norwegian is considering longhaul to Miami ? Do they have plans to expand their cooperation with the cruiseline maybe ?
 
MAH4546
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sat Nov 10, 2012 8:56 pm

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 69):

I beleave Norwegian has a cooperation with Royal Caribbean Cruiselines. Could this be the reason why Norwegian is considering longhaul to Miami ? Do they have plans to expand their cooperation with the cruiseline maybe ?


Norwegian is considering Miami because the market between Norway/Sweden/Denmark and South Florida is very large.

Miami-Stockholm and Miami-Copenhagen are two of the ten largest unserved U.S.-EU city pairs, including the largest and second largest unserved Miami-EU city pairs. Each market separately is larger than Boston-Zurich or Los Angeles-Moscow. The yield is really bad - its pure vacation traffic - which is why it's not tapped. If anybody can make this kind of market work, it's going to be Norwegian's long haul model. SAS or AA would lose their shirts in the market.
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bbiter
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sat Nov 10, 2012 9:58 pm

I wonder what TG's response to DY's plans will be. SK is dropping BKK in April (?) and TG are the only ones serving the Scandinavian capitals with direct flights. DY's fares are considerably lower and the product is seemingly better.
 
g2scandinavia
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sat Nov 10, 2012 10:02 pm

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 68):
.
MIACPH: 68,008
MIAARN: 62,090
MIAOSL: 31,530
MIAGOT: 22,223

Are you sure on these numbers mah4546?
According to Swedavia and the travel survey for ARN of 2011, MIA had 23206 pax as their end destination (outbound and inbound).
Are you sure these numbers are not for the whole of Sweden?

Also, CPH presents their numbers with its current transfer flow to MIA, meaning that its numbers also includes some of the numbers from OSL and ARN (and other airports with traffic to MIA via CPH). The same with OSL if a passenger travels TRD-OSL-EWR-MIA. However transfer for domestic to international @ OSL are very limited and the numbers are a clear indication of the local market from OSL.
 
MAH4546
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sat Nov 10, 2012 10:15 pm

Quoting g2scandinavia (Reply 72):
Are you sure on these numbers mah4546?
According to Swedavia and the travel survey for ARN of 2011, MIA had 23206 pax as their end destination (outbound and inbound).
Are you sure these numbers are not for the whole of Sweden?

I am absolutely, 100% sure. I have no idea what this Swedish survey is, but the numbers are MIDT data, which is based on Sabre bookings. No idea what you mean about how CPH presents its numbers. In 2011, there 68,000 local passengers between MIA and CPH. That does not include any transfer traffic, unless the person buys two separate tickets.

It is not all of Sweden - notice I gave separate traffic figures for ARN and GOT.

For all of Sweden, in 2011 approximately 946,000 people flew between Sweden and the United States, of which approximately 90,000 went to Miami.

[Edited 2012-11-10 14:18:44]

[Edited 2012-11-10 14:20:18]
a.
 
g2scandinavia
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sun Nov 11, 2012 6:17 am

Look at the numbers from Swedavia:

http://www.swedavia.com/PageFiles/76...ökning-Arlanda%202012%20(eng).pdf

This are the numbers used by ARN (similar method @ OSL and CPH) that are used in presentations to airlines regarding route opportunities. It's simply because airlines wont share their statistics with the airports and they do therefore use surveys to find the destination numbers. The validity of the OSL survey are set to +/- 12% if i remember correctly. I would presume its no different from ARN as they are using the same method.It works by only presenting end destinations and transfer through the airport. For instance, pax flying LLA- ARN-FRA-EWR would not be counted in the FRA numbers for end destination. Only as pax on LLA-ARN and ARN-EWR.

[Edited 2012-11-10 22:45:56]
 
MAH4546
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sun Nov 11, 2012 6:41 am

Quoting g2scandinavia (Reply 74):

Look at the numbers from Swedavia:

http://www.swedavia.com/PageFiles/76...ökning-Arlanda%202012%20(eng).pdf


Okay.

Can't believe they wasted their time when Sabre collects this data and makes it available. It's wrong. And if you noticed, the information is grossly outdated (2006) and only takes into account people travelling in the second quarter, which includes the two slowest long-haul travel months of year - April and May. Here are the largest markets between Scandanavia and the United States in 2011. Regardless of what a Swedish travel survey says, MIDT data is accurate, and anything that doesn't agree with it is going to be wrong.

1) NYCCPH ~330 PDEW
2) NYCARN ~315 PDEW
3) NYCOSL ~175 PDEW
4) NYCHEL ~130 PDEW
5) LAXCPH ~105 PDEW
6) MIACPH ~94 PDEW
7) NYCGOT ~87 PDEW
8) MIAARN ~85 PDEW
9) SFOCPH ~83 PDEW
10) MIAHEL ~70 PDEW

It's actually a pretty common uniform pattern for all the major Scandanavian cities: NYC is the largest market by far; Miami is the second largest market, a little ahead of Los Angeles. Then there is quite a drop down to San Francisco often being the fourth largest market. In fact, those are the four largest local markets for every single major Scandanavian city.

The fifth largest market for CPH is Washington; ARN is Chicago; OSL is Houston.


LAXCPH 104

[Edited 2012-11-10 23:05:38]
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EBGflyer
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sun Nov 11, 2012 4:25 pm

Quoting bBiter (Reply 71):
DY's fares are considerably lower and the product is seemingly better

Have you done a comparison? I couldn't find any extremely low fares.
Future flights: CPH-BOS; CPH-SVG; CPH-PVG-HKG-MNL-DVO; CPH-CDG; CPH-NRT; CPH-MIA; CPH-PVG
 
Viscount724
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sun Nov 11, 2012 4:42 pm

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 75):
Regardless of what a Swedish travel survey says, MIDT data is accurate, and anything that doesn't agree with it is going to be wrong.

Doesn't MIDT data only cover travel agent sales? I didn't think it included carriers' own sales which must be a very significant share of the market now considering the volume of bookings through airline websites. I've been told MIDT data is very incomplete.
 
bbiter
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sun Nov 11, 2012 5:26 pm

Quoting EBGflyer (Reply 76):
Have you done a comparison? I couldn't find any extremely low fares.

DY's OSL-BKK-OSL average fare seem to be around NOK 5000 (including meals,1pc checked luggage and seat reservation), while the average TG fare seems to be NOK 7500.
 
copenhagenboy
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sun Nov 11, 2012 5:35 pm

Quoting bBiter (Reply 71):
DY's fares are considerably lower and the product is seemingly better.

Are you saying that the product of DY will be better than on TG? How and why?
 
bbiter
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sun Nov 11, 2012 5:47 pm

Quoting copenhagenboy (Reply 79):
Are you saying that the product of DY will be better than on TG? How and why?

Apart from the "Dreamliner Experience" hype?
Lower cabin pressure
Less ambient noise
Slightly less time to destination
Latest generation IFE
Brand new aircraft

There is however one big drawback: DY's 31 inch seat pitch vs.TG's 32 inches.
 
copenhagenboy
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sun Nov 11, 2012 6:02 pm

Quoting bBiter (Reply 80):
There is however one big drawback: DY's 31 inch seat pitch vs.TG's 32 inches.

And that is the most important for me, and also how many seats their is in a row.

The difference in ARN is even bigger, where TG is flying with the 747. DY 31 inch vs. 34 inch on TG.

I also find the catering and general service on TG to be great, that untill now has not been beaten by any European Airlines.

I really don't care so much about the newest IFE, I like to read in some newpapers and a book when flying longhaul, but I am sure we are all different and have different priorities.
 
LN-KGL
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sun Nov 11, 2012 6:19 pm

We know clearly now that you don't want ever to fly with Norwegian on longhaul copenhagenboy. Obviously some else do want to fly with DU or else the ticket prices would have stayed at the introduction level today. Let me also remind you, it is over 6 months to the first departure - and a lot can happen during these over 180 days. Tomorrow is one these days, and I wonder what that brings?
 
EBGflyer
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sun Nov 11, 2012 6:27 pm

Quoting copenhagenboy (Reply 81):
And that is the most important for me, and also how many seats their is in a row.

The difference in ARN is even bigger, where TG is flying with the 747. DY 31 inch vs. 34 inch on TG.

DU's 787 will seat 291 pax in a 3-3-3 configuration. ANA and JAL uses 2-4-2 on their 787's. It will be tight, but people want cheap!
Future flights: CPH-BOS; CPH-SVG; CPH-PVG-HKG-MNL-DVO; CPH-CDG; CPH-NRT; CPH-MIA; CPH-PVG
 
copenhagenboy
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sun Nov 11, 2012 6:31 pm

Quoting LN-KGL (Reply 82):
We know clearly now that you don't want ever to fly with Norwegian on longhaul copenhagenboy

I would never say ever, but I think my questions are legitimate.
 
bbiter
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sun Nov 11, 2012 6:31 pm

Quoting copenhagenboy (Reply 81):
The difference in ARN is even bigger, where TG is flying with the 747. DY 31 inch vs. 34 inch on TG.


I've flown that route on TG's 744 2-3 times. I didn't much like it. The aircraft on the ARN route are old, have a dated interior and were quite rickety during take-off, sounded like they were about to come apart at any moment. Service was also nowhere near the service level of what one generally comes to expect of SE Asian airlines. However, this was in Y class. I imagine service is quite different when the fare costs 3x.

On the other hand, I find SK's seats on their A330/340 horribly hard. I get "posterior numbness syndrome" ( ) on SK long-haul. After 2-3 CPH-BKK trips I've settled on Lufthansa (trying to stick to *A). However, my next trip to BKK is with AY but in biz-class (they had a promo) so I won't be able to objectively compare AY's Y-class with what I've experienced with TG, SK and LH.
 
g2scandinavia
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RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sun Nov 11, 2012 6:38 pm

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 75):
Okay.

Can't believe they wasted their time when Sabre collects this data and makes it available. It's wrong. And if you noticed, the information is grossly outdated (2006) and only takes into account people travelling in the second quarter, which includes the two slowest long-haul travel months of year - April and May. Here are the largest markets between Scandanavia and the United States in 2011. Regardless of what a Swedish travel survey says, MIDT data is accurate, and anything that doesn't agree with it is going to be wrong.

1) NYCCPH ~330 PDEW
2) NYCARN ~315 PDEW
3) NYCOSL ~175 PDEW
4) NYCHEL ~130 PDEW
5) LAXCPH ~105 PDEW
6) MIACPH ~94 PDEW
7) NYCGOT ~87 PDEW
8) MIAARN ~85 PDEW
9) SFOCPH ~83 PDEW
10) MIAHEL ~70 PDEW

It's actually a pretty common uniform pattern for all the major Scandanavian cities: NYC is the largest market by far; Miami is the second largest market, a little ahead of Los Angeles. Then there is quite a drop down to San Francisco often being the fourth largest market. In fact, those are the four largest local markets for every single major Scandanavian city.

The fifth largest market for CPH is Washington; ARN is Chicago; OSL is Houston.


LAXCPH 104

Sabre is nothing else but a estimating tool, using some historical data to calculate on estimated pax potentials.
There are several similar companies offering pax numbers and their clients are mostly airlines, not airports.
This is the very reason why most airports present their own statistics as they find it more accurate.I have no doubt that you are presenting the actual output, but it's not the same as presented by ARN/CPH/OSL.

For instance, you report 104.000 pax CPH-LAX-CPH from/to the local market of CPH.
CPH reports 76.000 pax inkl transfer through CPH.

To SFO, you report 83.000 pax. CPH reports 62.000.
To MIA, you report 94.000 pax, CPH reports 61.000.

The same with ARN where you are referring to 315.000 pax to New York. ARN reports 260.000.

It's the same with all the numbers you are presenting.

As long as the airport has agreed to use statistics based on their travel surveys, that's the numbers we should discuss!

Also, Huston is the eleventh, not fifth largest destination from OSL  

[Edited 2012-11-11 10:53:49]
 
Mortyman
Posts: 5871
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 8:26 pm

RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sun Nov 11, 2012 6:47 pm

Quoting bBiter (Reply 71):
DY's fares are considerably lower and the product is seemingly better

Norwegian is proabably cheaper, but saying that the product is better is proabably a stretch. I don't think Norwegian will be able to match Thai on food and service ... and it's not really to be expected. Norwegian is a different type of carrier.

[Edited 2012-11-11 10:48:23]
 
LipeGIG
Posts: 5063
Joined: Tue May 03, 2005 7:33 am

RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sun Nov 11, 2012 7:01 pm

Quoting g2scandinavia (Thread starter):
According to the rumors, candidates are

OSL/ARN- Rio de Janeiro
Quoting Mortyman (Reply 8):
I like the idea of Rio de Janeiro ...
Quoting mah4546 (Reply 19):
Are they trying to be a network carrier? Will they attempt to build-up demand in potential holiday markets like Beijing and Rio de Janeiro?

I would say that OSL-GIG is more than just a holiday route. Now with more than 100 Norwegian corps established in Rio, including major ones like Hydro and Statoil, a major bank and financial firms, this is a route that can have an interesting mix of leisure + business. Rio can be another option, no doubt, for leisure.
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26252
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sun Nov 11, 2012 7:10 pm

Quoting g2scandinavia (Reply 86):
Sabre is nothing else but a estimating tool, using some historical data to calculate on estimated pax potentials.

MIDT data is the most respected, most widely used and considered definitive source for traffic d'état by every segment in the industry.

Quoting g2scandinavia (Reply 86):
To SFO, you report 83.000 pax. CPH reports 62.000.
To MIA, you report 94.000 pax, CPH reports 61.000.

The same with ARN where you are referring to 315.000 pax to New York. ARN reports 260.000.

No. You are reading my numbers completely wrong. I listed PDEW. Multiply PDEW by 730. And, look a that, the numbers roughly line up with what CPH reports.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 77):
Doesn't MIDT data only cover travel agent sales? I didn't think it included carriers' own sales which must be a very significant share of the market now considering the volume of bookings through airline websites. I've been told MIDT data is very incomplete.

No. The data is sourced through Sabre but is adjusted for various factors.

Quoting g2scandinavia (Reply 86):
As long as the airport has agreed to use statistics based on their travel surveys, that's the numbers we should discuss!

Why? And are airport's planning routes? No, airports are not. Airlines are - and I assure you Norwegian doesn't give a damn what Arlanda airport officials learn from interviewing passengers during a three month period in 2006. Norwegian is using MIDT. Have you even read how that Stockholm data was learned? It's extremely outdated firstly - 6 years old! - and not annualized.

I certainly agree there is value in looking at other data - airports often run them to help find "lost" traffic that travels on double tickets - but this Swedish data is grossly outdated and collected in a flawed way.

[Edited 2012-11-11 11:16:21]
a.
 
LN-KGL
Posts: 822
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 1999 6:40 am

RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Sun Nov 11, 2012 7:45 pm

mah4546, I think the airports won't dare publishing unserved and underserved numbers higher than what they are certain holds water. The airline planners trust these numbers is known. The same can't be said about Amadeus Market Information (MIDT). Amadeus themselves says it "covers all travel agency bookings created in Amadeus on all carriers in every market". In other words, they don't know anything about almost 80% of the tickets bought at Norwegian (I could have said 100% since DY don't have any links with Amadeus). Also other parts of the LCC market is a unknown for Amadeus. Basing a computational model on so many unknowns I would not trust. Isn't there a saying: Carbage in, garbage out.
 
cityairline
Posts: 672
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2005 12:29 am

RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Mon Nov 12, 2012 10:57 am

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 75):
1) NYCCPH ~330 PDEW
2) NYCARN ~315 PDEW
3) NYCOSL ~175 PDEW
4) NYCHEL ~130 PDEW
5) LAXCPH ~105 PDEW
6) MIACPH ~94 PDEW
7) NYCGOT ~87 PDEW
8) MIAARN ~85 PDEW

Interessting numbers that you're all discussing.
Even more intersting is all the fuss about MIA-CPH/ARN and not a word about NYC-GOT, which is obviously a bigger market than MIA-ARN and almost the size of MIA-CPH. On top of that, I beleive that NYC-GOT is considerably higher yielding than the other two routes. Still, no mention of it.

Nevertheless, interesting times ahead for Norwegian, especially from the capitals. I think we can expect them not to be limited by the eight Dreamliner currently on order. If all goes well there will be more aircraft.

/Alex
I don't fly to live, I live to fly...
 
Someone83
Posts: 4904
Joined: Sun Sep 17, 2006 5:47 pm

RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Mon Nov 12, 2012 11:18 am

Quoting CityAirline (Reply 91):
Even more intersting is all the fuss about MIA-CPH/ARN and not a word about NYC-GOT, which is obviously a bigger market than MIA-ARN and almost the size of MIA-CPH. On top of that, I beleive that NYC-GOT is considerably higher yielding than the other two routes. Still, no mention of it.

I think one aspect here is the number of possible connections. A route from ARN/CPH to MIA would need and also get a significant number of connections, which GOT with its route doesn't get. And 87 daily passengers to NYC, just isn't enough to justify a route
 
sweair
Posts: 1816
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2011 9:59 am

RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Mon Nov 12, 2012 12:12 pm

I wonder if Africa will replace SE Asia as a new favorite holiday destination in the future, the east coast of Africa has some nice places and prices should be below SE Asia by now.

Norwegian has an opportunity to grow in new markets and they probably will. SK has its business crowd to tend to, but with more meetings over Internet etc it will be a shrinking group. The environmental propaganda will steep corporations away from flying as much as today.

The modern tourist wants more than a nice beach, they want an adventure, here I can see Africa a big untapped market for adventures/nature experiences.

I don't think Norwegian cares about what groups it attracts, it wants to sell tickets, they have no image to defend.
 
g2scandinavia
Topic Author
Posts: 432
Joined: Wed Jun 02, 2010 8:00 am

RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Mon Nov 12, 2012 1:07 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 93):
Norwegian has an opportunity to grow in new markets and they probably will

It's a very good point you are presenting Sweair. Norwegian have been extremely good in building new destinations and markets. They are more or less defining Norwegian and Swedish travel patterns on many of their European destinations.
I think it will be no difference for DU and that especially ARN have a loot of exciting new IC destinations to look forward to.
 
cityairline
Posts: 672
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2005 12:29 am

RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Mon Nov 12, 2012 1:10 pm

Quoting someone83 (Reply 92):
I think one aspect here is the number of possible connections.

Ofcourse, good point.

Quoting someone83 (Reply 92):
And 87 daily passengers to NYC, just isn't enough to justify a route

But 85 and 94 is...?  

Besides, flying thrice a week the number will be higher, and no, all of the passengers wouldn't fly Norwegian, but don't forget that new LCC routes genrate new trips, so the number would be much higher than 87.
I don't fly to live, I live to fly...
 
vadheim
Posts: 553
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2000 9:21 pm

RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Mon Nov 12, 2012 1:56 pm

Quoting CityAirline (Reply 95):
Besides, flying thrice a week the number will be higher, and no, all of the passengers wouldn't fly Norwegian, but don't forget that new LCC routes genrate new trips, so the number would be much higher than 87.

You also have to remember that CPH, OSL and ARN have a 4-5 times larger passenger volume in total than GOT has (i.e. 20million+ each vs. 5M).
 
cityairline
Posts: 672
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2005 12:29 am

RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Mon Nov 12, 2012 4:01 pm

Quoting vadheim (Reply 96):
You also have to remember that CPH, OSL and ARN have a 4-5 times larger passenger volume in total than GOT has (i.e. 20million+ each vs. 5M).

That is exactly waht you can NOT take into consideration.
Those airports see these alrge numbers alot thanks to domestic traffic and transfer. But the O/D demand from these airprots are not 4-5 times larger than the demand from GOT, that I can guarantee you!

An example is that BGO serves more annual passengers than GOT, but the demand for international air travel is alot smaller than from GOT.

/Alex
I don't fly to live, I live to fly...
 
Mortyman
Posts: 5871
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 8:26 pm

RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Mon Nov 12, 2012 4:46 pm

Quoting g2scandinavia (Reply 42):
Norwegian are in discussion to acquire more Dreamliners with deliveries starting from 2015

Anyone know more about this. When the new deal will be signed and for how many ? And will it still be for the 787 8 or will Norwegian try a bigger variant ?
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26252
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: Norwegian Starting OSL-BKK/JFK And ARN-BKK/JFK

Mon Nov 12, 2012 5:23 pm

Quoting CityAirline (Reply 91):
Even more intersting is all the fuss about MIA-CPH/ARN and not a word about NYC-GOT, which is obviously a bigger market than MIA-ARN and almost the size of MIA-CPH. On top of that, I beleive that NYC-GOT is considerably higher yielding than the other two routes. Still, no mention of it.

I think that's simply because Norwegian has hinted it plans to serve Miami, and has made no indication that it plans to servce long-haul from Gothenberg.

Quoting someone83 (Reply 92):
And 87 daily passengers to NYC, just isn't enough to justify a route

That's 87 PDEW without non-stop service. Non-stop service is a huge demand booster - it stimulates markets short-term by as much as 100% and long-term by 200 to 500%.

One example is MIAZRH, from less than 35 PDEW before Swiss entered in late 1999; to 84 PDEW in 2003; to 170 PDEW today. And service from a national carrier also has the effect of boosting demand from key connecting markets where the airline is also strong - in the same years MIAGVA went from 15 PDEW to 29 PDEW to 55 PDEW.

We are going to see substantial growth in local demand from whatever markets Norwegian enters, even more so than normal because of its low cost model which, while largely unproven for whether or not it will create a profitable operation as long-haul LLC, is well tested and well known to substantially boost demand in city pairs connected.
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